Move over CHIPS Act, Stargate is the future – Asia Times

The US$$ 500 billion Stargate AI system project, which was announced by US President Donald Trump, has sparked media coverage and stoked industry, deflecting attention from the less attractive details of TSMC’s initial chip factory’s opening, and suffocate the more contentious debate over the future of America’s high-tech restoration.

On January 21, the day after his inauguration, Donald Trump made an appearance with Oracle’s Larry Ellison, Softbank’s Masayoshi Son, and OpenAI’s Sam Altman to make an announcement that artificial intelligence will be the “largest AI system job by much in story… creating over 100, 000 National work about immediately,” as Trump put it. Given some of the responses it has generated, the film went “viral” – a suitable information.

In Abilene, Texas, 10 properties measuring half a million square foot are currently under construction, with additional 10 more on the drawing board, and additional ones will be constructed at locations that are being evaluated nationwide. These data locations may be full of machines equipped with Nvidia’s fresh Blackwell AI chips, which are made by Taiwan’s TSMC, the world’s top silicon manufacturer.

” I’m gonna support, a bit, through emergency pronouncements”, said Trump, “because we have an emergency, we have to get this thing built”.

” They have to make a lot of power, and we’ll make it possible for them to get that generation done pretty easily”, he added, “at their personal crops if they want”.

In other words, Trump intends to supersede power regulations that may put off the project, leading to a significant increase in power generation capacity driven by the purchase intentions of a select few big high-tech companies.

Oracle’s Ellison said,” Thank you, Mr President. We certainly couldn’t do this without you”. Altman and Son shared the sentiment. And they probably couldn’t, at least not as quickly and efficiently.

If Joe Biden or Kamala Harris had been attempting the project in the White House, it would likely have been hampered by attempts at social engineering and unionization of the workforce. For the same reason, Stargate is based in Texas, not California.

Masayoshi Son said,” We wouldn’t have decided, unless you won. Yesterday, we agreed. We signed. To achieve this, we would immediately begin deploying 100 billion dollars with the intention of making 500 billion dollars within the next four years, within your mandate.

As explained by OpenAI, the initial equity investments in Stargate will come from SoftBank, Oracle, OpenAI and MGX, the technology fund based in Abu Dhabi. The lead partners are SoftBank and OpenAI, with OpenAI acting as the company’s operational manager and SoftBank as its financial advisor. Softbank’s Son will be the project’s chairman.

Nvidia, Arm ( the British semiconductor design company owned primarily by Softbank ), Microsoft, Oracle and OpenAI are the project’s technology partners. Oracle, Nvidia and OpenAI will build and operate the computing system.

OpenAI has long-standing relationships with both Nvidia and Microsoft. In Japan, Softbank and Nvidia have partnered to set up a nationwide AI grid.

Following Trump to the podium, Ellison, Son and Altman talked about healthcare-related applications from AI-enabled cross-referencing of health records and procedures to cancer detection and treatment, including the development of mRNA cancer vaccines.

But there are other possibilities, including factory automation and national defense. The name Stargate, of course, is reminiscent of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite company.

The stock market approves of the concept. Oracle’s share price was up 7.2 % on Tuesday and another 4.6 % in after-hours trading. The share price of Softbank Group increased by more than 10 % on Wednesday and by another 5 % on Thursday in Japan ( across the International Date Line ). The share prices of Nvidia, TSMC, Microsoft and server maker Super Micro also rose.

Stargate is pitched as a made-in-America-for-America project, but the Nvidia AI processors at the core of the data centers will be made by Taiwan’s TSMC, at first entirely in Taiwan, then partly in the US.

At its new factory in Arizona, where TSMC is most likely to manufacture integrated circuits, on January 10, TSMC began producing integrated circuits for Apple. AMD and Nvidia are likely to be its new customers. For the first time in our country’s history, our country’s leaders are producing cutting-edge four-nanometer chips on American soil, making American workers on par with Taiwan in terms of yield and quality, according to incoming commerce chief Gina Raimondo.

TSMC Chairman and CEO C C Wei, speaking to investors on the company’s 2024 earnings call on January 16, confirmed this:

” We were able to pull ahead the production schedule of our first fab in Arizona, building on the successful result of our earlier engineering wafer production. Our first fab, using N4 process technology and yield comparable to those of our fabs in Taiwan, has already entered high-volume production in 4Q ’24. We anticipate a smooth beginning of the manufacturing process because we are confident that our factories in Arizona and Taiwan will offer the same level of manufacturing quality and dependability.

Wei added that “our plans for the second fab and third fab in Arizona are also on track.” Based on the needs of our customers, these fabs will use even more advanced technologies like our N3, N2, and A16.

In plain English, this means that TSMC will be making 4nm chips in Arizona starting this year and progress to 3nm, 2nm and 1.6nm ( 16-angstrom ), probably by the end of the decade. In terms of 3nm production, TSMC is already ahead of Samsung and Intel, who are both likely to be 1 nm and smaller. TSMC currently makes Nvidia’s Blackwell AI processors using its 4nm process.

All of these process technologies were and are being developed and produced in Taiwan, close to the company’s R&amp, D, and where the procedure is well-established and the capacity is much larger. This suggests that regardless of any agreement Trump has with China, he won’t want to disrupt Stargate’s main production.

A retired Silicon Valley executive and advisor to the US government on the subject of high-tech competitiveness said,” The game with the current administration is zero-sum,” in response to the three executives ‘ praise for Trump.

And that it is given that Trump has already replaced and exceeded$ 500 billion in government funding after cutting more than$ 300 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act and Department of Energy loan programs under his administration, which were then replaced by$ 300 billion from the private sector.

A West Coast venture capitalist who is not a fan of Trump wrote in an email that” It’s all part of the mad scramble for more computing power and energy to fuel it… Remember Trump’s first term. He enjoys planning big announcements, which credit him with making investments that were already planned or that never occur. Everyone tries to ingratiate themselves with Dear Leader, but it’s all part of that. Because that’s what you have to do in an autocratic state” .&nbsp,

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, wrote on X,” They don’t actually have the money. SoftBank has well under$ 10 billion secured. I have that on good authority”. However, if there is one thing Son excels at, it’s raising money. In 2017, Softbank launched the Vision Fund, a technology-focused venture capital fund with more than$ 100 billion in capital – the world’s largest such fund at the time.

For Musk, whose xAI competes with OpenAI and has taken it to court, Stargate is a powerful new competitor. And perhaps worse than that, Ellison, Son and Altman – high-tech moguls like himself – now also have Trump’s ear.

If the build-out of Stargate’s data centers proceeds according to plan, Microsoft, Google and Amazon are likely to lose their first-mover advantage and oligopolistic profit margins in AI-related cloud computing. Oracle, which offers cloud computing services in 25 countries around the world, has a significant opportunity in this regard.

Another critic, physician and biochemist Robert Malone, has published an essay entitled” AI, mRNA, Cancer Vaccines and” Stargate”: Reality check. Curb your enthusiasm, and beware of grifters”.

He writes:” I can’t believe that we are being spoon-fed this hype from the likes of Oracle’s Larry Ellison… Having this guy lecture us on mRNA vaccines for cancer is over the top. &nbsp, This is so amazingly ( and dangerously ) naive that I can hardly believe I am hearing it”.

Maybe so, but Ellison, Son and Altman were delivering a pitch for AI infrastructure, not explaining the technology roadmaps of companies that will use their data centers. They may be overly optimistic, but they are genuinely interested in healthcare and think AI can contribute significantly to the analysis of sizable amounts of medical-related data.

Malone also criticizes “banking some brand-new” cancer moonshot” television programs named after science fiction TV shows.” So, is Stargate a wise use of money or a reckless boondoggle? In reality,$ 500 billion is nearly ten times the$ 52.7 billion in grants and loans provided by the CHIPS Act. Only time will tell.

Follow this writer on&nbsp, X: @ScottFo83517667

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From innovation to production of new US defense systems – Asia Times

At all ranges of implementation, the US is in constant flux with global competition for significant security technologies. The US Department of Defense will implement new initiatives to increase the competitive range and level of British defence techniques.

The success of these initiatives will be evaluated by the rapid, better development that can outsmart the competition. In this regard, advanced manufacturing processes that create technology systems are of special value.

The issue is frequently delivering exceptional techniques within budget, but there is rarely a shortage of innovative ideas. Working within the restrictive technological and financial constraints of these programs calls for the skilled blending of numerous resources.

And the end result may be powerful systems that can be used in a variety of settings.

It has, of course, been done earlier. The remarkably successful NASA Apollo program, for instance, which brought the first people to the moon, is a perfect example. In response to the Soviet Union’s pioneering satellite systems, President John Kennedy launched the system.

Success came from a sizable pool of skills. And there were no buttons. Numerous cooperative programs forged a bridge between innovative research and pioneering professional development and production, which helped lead to the success of Apollo.

These well-executed cooperative programs enabled the transfer of novel ideas from facilities to practical use. These were not only ordinary goods; they had to conform to the strictest consistency requirements for spacecraft carrying astronauts.

The program’s extraordinary accomplishment was the rapid transition from ideas to space-qualified products that couldn’t fail without causing life to be lost.

I was involved in the creation and development of the solid-state microwave that served as the radio for the pilots ‘ landing on the moon to talk to the spacecraft that was orbiting the moon, and where they had to return and port once they reached the planet’s surface.

The system in the radio may not fail, and to maintain its reliability, fresh test and manufacturing techniques were developed. The sky landing vision was a flawless success for the micro television. It was all fresh, and individuals rose to the challenge.

This type of work was carried out frequently by many members. In this instance, the initial development was at a RCA&nbsp, labs where I worked, but the conversation game’s prime contractor did the full stereo design and production.

You never know where new thoughts will come from, so the purpose of this account is to emphasize the importance of including undiscovered entrepreneurs in engineering programs.

What made this example stand out as extraordinary is that my invention was the result of a conversation I had by chance with a NASA engineer to find out whether I needed a new device to remove a flawed one.

In a short period of time, NASA became aware that a trustworthy radio could be constructed, and revenue for my project almost arrived immediately. The soft transfer to a top-notch radio product manufacturer was what eventually made the new radio possible. This near connection is important.

What resources are available right now that will enable massive new defence projects? The most accomplished citizens work together, second, to put it another way. DARPA ( Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency ), which is funded by the Department of Defense, provides funding for technological studies in important areas.

The initiatives supported by DARPA have had amazing effects when supported by various organizations, including the success of artificial intelligence and the Internet.

The DARPA programs ‘ results are simply system enablers for military projects, which companies with the assets can use to fund weapons and systems production follow.

Now, there is a major concern. The number of top US defence companies has decreased from 51 to just five since the early 1990s. This means fewer assets involved in security plans, fewer entrepreneurs and less opposition.

Additionally, there are fewer business labs working for the DOD. The big corporate lab, like those of AT&amp, T, RCA and Xerox, have disappeared. Companies that once had a high level of entrepreneurs with significant innovative contributions have seen a drastic decline in number.

This issue is likely to prevent the development of significant new initiatives that require the highest level of technology. The answer is that more businesses may participate in the DoD purchasing method, while organizations like DARPA must continue to work together. And the best US skill may join.

I anticipate that new initiatives may require new businesses that value the development of high-performance technology under DoD contracts and the fact that such initiatives’ spin-offs will have significant effects on the sales of goods. This has been demonstrated over time, and it is likely to continue.

Henry Kressel is a technician, engineer, publisher and entrepreneur. He was in charge of directing the development of numerous significant, novel electronic equipment. He was the director of RCA Laboratories ‘ electronic research division and has long held private equity investments in technology businesses.

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Trump’s executive orders all about power and theater – Asia Times

In a piece of real social theatre, Donald Trump began his next president by signing a host of professional requests before a euphoric crowd of 20,000 in Washington on Monday.

The directions immediately reversed expanses of Biden administration policy and basically began what Trump christened a “golden years of America ” in his inaugural address.

But there are limits to what Trump may reach through for purchases. And they face a deeper necessity for the new supervision over how to deal with possible Republican in-fighting and a frantic people frightened for change.

What did Trump get?

Executive purchases are commonly used by US president at the beginning of their terms to immediately start implementing their plan.

Important orders signed on Trump’s second time included:

Here’s a summary of the remainder.

Because they are legally bound, professional orders are a powerful tool. Democratic and Republican leaders everywhere have been accused of despotic goal over their usage.

However, executive orders remain constrained by the authorities, Congress and public view. Birthright citizen, in specific, is protected by the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, but Trump’s get will undoubtedly encounter legal challenge.

Perhaps most important, executive orders can be swept away by a leader. Trump did this in dramatic fashion by revoking 78 Biden-era commands, many of which dealt with national diversity, equity and inclusion activities.

The limits of executive orders have been tested in recent years and surely will be repeatedly by Trump.

But there is political worth in issuing orders to show action, even if they are inevitably ineffective, reduced in scope or reversed. That was the situation with the legal wrangling over Trump’s travel restrictions on citizens of Muslim-majority places in 2017 and Biden’s student loan debt forgiveness plan.

Trump presumably recognized this in the dance of his executive commands on Monday. For example, the order aiming to “restore freedom of speech and end federal censorship ” is heavy on political rhetoric, but may have little practical effect.

Is the honeymoon next?

Trump is relishing his highest preference assessments and the usual post-election getaway enjoyed by most leaders.

But this aid was easily vanish if his followers ’ high expectations are not met rapidly. In this context, the executive orders were the fastest way to indicate progress on vital interests to an anxious state.

Across much of the US, fears over prices and failing facilities remain high. Less than 20 % of the land is satisfied with the direction of the country.

For a country hungry for change, there was tremendous appeal in Trump’s election promises to promptly stop foreign wars, curb rising inflation and tackle illegal immigration. But for campaign promises have frequently been short on details from Trump so far.

Half of Americans expect the price of everyday things to occur down during his administration– including almost nine in ten of his followers. Three-quarters even expect him to carry out large arrests.

However, the public remains divided on other parts of the Trump plan or does n’t know them.

The rapid and serious nature of professional orders are, therefore, an appealing option for Trump. He may show he is taking steps to meet his election promises while buying himself time to figure out thornier problems.

However, he runs the risk of losing people assist if the orders do not generate substantial shift. For this, he may have major legislative actions from Congress.

Uncomfortable alliance with Congress

Republicans power both chambers of Congress, as well as the White House. But the previously narrow margin of Republican power in the House of Representatives and the persistent thorns of the Senate filibuster could harm Trump’s legislative plan.

Until three intended jobs are filled in the House, the Republicans may not be able to obtain a second diplomat in a party-line voting. House Speaker Mike Johnson is now encountering barriers in consolidating help behind an all-encompassing “MAGA bill”, which he hopes to offer to Congress later this year.

In 2017, when Trump had a similarly pleasant Congress with a far more pleasant ratio, Republicans still struggled to unite behind a parliamentary plan. Big tax breaks were passed, but modifications to Obamacare and other objectives failed amid celebration bickering.

This paved the way for sweeping Democrat increases in the 2018 midterm elections — a pattern that could be repeated in 2026 depending on Republicans ’ progress in the next two years.

Like Barack Obama before him, Trump does turn to professional requests to avoid Congress, especially if Democrats lose control of the House in 2026. However, his executive order to halt the TikTok restrictions bypasses a bipartisan law passed by Congress last year and just upheld by the traditional Supreme Court.

For moves can produce friction with legislators– even those in his own party.

As late as Sunday, Johnson insisted the US “will enforce the law ” against TikTok. And two Democratic lawmakers warned against offering TikTok any type of improvement, which they claimed may include “no constitutional basis. ”

Groups between Republicans are also apparent over the possibility of taxes and the future of Trump’s immigration scheme.

For today, these tensions may get put off amid the ongoing opening euphoria. But they will eventually reemerge and could also result in a returning to congressional gridlock and inaction. Such delays could find much patience among Americans troubled for quick solutions to insurmountable problems.

Samuel Garrett is exploration affiliate, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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Empty Biden threats, ‘smokescreen’ policy enabled Gaza horrors – Asia Times

This article was first published by ProPublica, a Pulitzer Prize-winning analytical news website.

Reporting features

  • Costs of silence:  Experts claim that Biden’s inaction led to widespread violence for human rights violations, including preventing aid deliveries even after obvious US warnings.
  • Empty challenges: &nbsp, Since October 7, 2023, Biden has repeatedly issued challenges that Israel ignored. US authorities tried to maintain consequences — but they don’t.
  • Internal dissention: The State Department ignored its own researchers and acted decisively on leaks. Some individual rights authorities said they were prevented from pursuing proof of Israeli crimes.

A smaller group of senior US animal rights officials met with a top established at President Joe Biden’s State Department in early November to produce one last, unwavering appeal: We must keep our word.

Weeks before, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the management delivered their most obvious order however to Israel, demanding the Israel Defense Forces allow hundreds more trucksloads of food and medicine into Gaza every day— or more. British law and Biden’s personal laws prohibit hands sales to countries that restrict humanitarian assistance. Israel had 30 times to act.

In the quarter that followed, the IDF was accused of vehemently defying the US, its most important ally. According to charitable organizations, the Israeli military “tightened its hold,” continued to encircle urgently needed help trucks, and forced 100, 000 Palestinians from North Gaza, compounding what had already become a terrible problems” to its worst stage since the war began,” according to the organizations.

Some attendees at the November meet — officials who help direct the State Department’s efforts to promote racial collateral, religious freedom and various high-minded principles of democracy — said the United States ‘ global credibility had been seriously damaged by Biden’s unfailing support of Israel. If there was ever a time to hold Israel responsible, one adviser at the conference told Tom Sullivan, the State Department’s consultant and a senior policy adviser to Blinken, it was now.

However, the choice had already been made. Sullivan said the date would probably pass without motion and Biden had remain sending shipments of bombs uninterrupted, according to two people who were in the meeting.

Those in the room inflated. ” Don’t our law, policy and morals demand it”? an attendee said to me later, reflecting on the decision once again to capitulate. What justifies this approach, exactly? There is no explanation they can articulate”.

Soon after the 30-day deadline was up, Blinken declared that Israelis had started following his instructions in good faith, all because of the pressure the US had put up.

That choice was immediately called into question. On November 14, a UN committee said that Israel’s methods in Gaza, including its use of starvation as a weapon, were” consistent with genocide”. Amnesty International went further and discovered that a genocide was taking place. The International Criminal Court also issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister for the war crime of deliberately starving civilians, among other allegations. The warrants and the US and Israeli governments have rejected the genocide determination.

The October red line was the last one Biden laid down, but it wasn’t the first. His administration issued multiple threats, warnings and admonishments to Israel about its conduct after October 7, 2023, when the Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked Israel, killed some 1, 200 people and took more than 250 hostages.

Government officials are concerned that the Israelis feel isolated as a result of Biden’s repeated, pointless threats.

Trump, who has made a raft of pro-Israel nominations, made it clear he wanted the war in Gaza to end before he took office and threatened that” all hell will break out” if Hamas did not release its hostages by then.

Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire deal on Wednesday after months of negotiations. While it will become clear over the next days and months exactly what the contours of the agreement are, why it happened now and who deserves the most credit, it’s plausible that Trump’s imminent ascension to the White House was its own form of a red line. Early reports suggest the deal looks similar to what has been on the table for months, raising the possibility that if the Biden administration had followed through on its tough words, a deal could have been reached earlier, saving lives.

Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute with a focus on US-Israel relations and a former official with the Palestinian Authority who provided advice on prior peace negotiations, said” Netanyahu’s conclusion was that Biden doesn’t have enough oomph to make him pay a price.” ” Part of it is that Netanyahu learned there is no cost to saying’ No’ to the current president”.

The world’s most powerful countries have long used the so-called red lines as a prominent foreign policy tool. They are communicated publicly in pronouncements by senior officials and privately by emissaries. They amount to rules of the road for friends and adversaries — you can go this far but no further.

Current and former US officials said the failure to enforce those lines in recent years has had consequences. One frequently cited example arose in 2012 when President Barack Obama told the Syrian government that using chemical weapons against its own people would change his calculus about directly intervening. Obama backpedaled and ultimately chose not to invade when Bashar al-Assad, the then president of Syria, launched rockets with chemical gas that killed hundreds of civilians anyway, according to critics, which increased the civil war’s soaring as local extremists seized on by recruiting locals.

Authorities in and outside government said the acquiescence to Israel as it prosecuted a brutal war will likely be regarded as one the most consequential foreign policy decisions of the Biden presidency. They say it undermines America’s ability to influence events in the Middle East while “destroying the entire edifice of international law that was put into place after WWII”, as Omer Bartov, a renowned]Israeli-American scholar of genocide, put it. Former State Department assistant secretary for the Middle East bureau, Jeffrey Feltman, expressed his concern that the majority of the Muslim world now views the US as “ineffective at best or complicit at worst in the large-scale civilian destruction and death.”

Biden’s warnings over the past year have also been explicit. The president vowed to stop providing Israelis with offensive bombs if they launched a significant invasion into Rafah, a city in the south of the country, last spring. He also told Netanyahu the US was going to rethink support for the war unless he took new steps to protect civilians and aid workers after the IDF blew up a World Central Kitchen caravan. And Blinken signaled that he would blacklist a notorious IDF unit for the death of a Palestinian-American in the West Bank if the soldiers involved were not brought to justice.

Israel repeatedly crossed the Biden administration’s red lines, according to interviews with government officials and outside experts. Each time, the US yielded and continued to send Israel’s military deadly weapons of war, approving more than$ 17.9 billion in military assistance since late 2023, by some estimates. The State Department recently disclosed to Congress a proposed$ 8 billion deal to sell Israeli munitions and artillery shells.

” It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the red lines have all just been a smokescreen”, said Stephen Walt, a professor of international affairs at Harvard Kennedy School and a preeminent authority on US policy in the region. ” The Biden administration decided to be all in and merely pretended that it was trying to do something about it”.

Blinken disputed this in a recent interview with The New York Times, saying that Netanyahu has listened to him by softening Israel’s most aggressive tactics, including in Rafah. He also argued there was a cost to even questioning the IDF openly. Hasas has resisted agreeing to a ceasefire and the release of hostages, according to Blinken,” when there has been public daylight between the United States and Israel and the perception that pressure is growing on Israel.”

He acknowledged that not enough humanitarian assistance has been reaching civilians and said the Israelis initially resisted the idea of allowing any food and medicine into Gaza— which would be a war crime— but Netanyahu relented in response to US pressure behind the scenes. Blinken backtracked later in the interview and suggested that the blocking of aid was not Israeli policy. He told the Times,” There’s a very different question about what was the intention.”

For this story, ProPublica spoke with scores of current and former officials throughout the year and read through government memos, cables and emails, many of which have not been reported previously. The interviews and records reveal why Biden and his top advisers resisted changing his policy despite the release of fresh evidence of Israeli abuses.

Throughout the contentious year inside the State Department, senior leaders repeatedly disregarded their own experts. They cracked down on leaks by threatening criminal investigations and classifying material that was critical of Israel. Some of the top Middle Eastern diplomats at the organization privately complained that Biden’s National Security Council had hampered them. The council also distributed a list of banned phrases, including any version of” State of Palestine” that didn’t have the word “future” first. Two human rights officials claimed they were unable to look into allegations of abuses in Gaza and the West Bank.

The State Department did not make Blinken available for an interview, but the agency’s top spokesperson, Matthew Miller, said in a statement that Blinken welcomes internal dissent and has incorporated it into his policymaking. ” The Department continues to encourage individuals to make their opinions known through appropriate channels”, he added. Miller disputed Miller’s claim that the agency has classified information for a reason other than national security.

Over the past year, reports have documented physical and sexual abuse in Israeli prisons, using Palestinians as human shields and razing residential buildings and hospitals. UNICEF once reported that at one point in the conflict, more than 10 children on average needed amputations every day. Israeli soldiers have videotaped themselves burning food supplies and ransacking homes. One IDF group reportedly said,” Our job is to flatten Gaza”.

Israel’s supporters, including those on the National Security Council, acknowledge the horrifying human trafficking, but claim that American weapons have helped it advance western interests in the area and shield itself from other foes. Indeed, Netanyahu has significantly diminished Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, killing many of the groups ‘ leaders. Then, late last year, when rebel fighters removed Assad from Syria, Iran’s” axis of resistance” suffered the most severe blow.

US Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew told the Times of Israel he worried that a generation of young Americans will harbor anti-Israel sentiments into the future. He said he wished that Israel had done a better job at communicating how carefully it undertook combat decisions and calling attention to its humanitarian successes to counter a narrative in the American press that he considers biased.

Lew said,” The media that is presenting a pro-Hamas perspective is out right away telling a story.” ” It tells a story that is, over time, shown not to be completely accurate.’ 35 children were killed. Well, it wasn’t 35 children. It was many fewer”.

He continued,” The children who were killed turned out to be the children of Hamas fighters.”

The repercussions for the United States and the region will play out for years. Polls show Arab Americans are becoming more hostile toward their own government in Muslim-majority nations like Indonesia, the third-largest democracy in the world. Russia, before its black eye in Syria, and China have both sought to capitalize by entering business and defense deals with Arab nations. By the summer, State Department analysts in the Middle East sent cables to Washington expressing concerns that the IDF’s conduct would only inflame tensions in the West Bank and galvanize young Palestinians to take up arms against Israel. According to intelligence officials, terrorist organizations are recruiting based on the region’s anti-American sentiment, which they claim is at its highest level in recent memory.

The Israeli government did not answer detailed questions, but a spokesperson for the embassy in Washington, D. C., broadly defended Israel’s relationship with the US,” two allies who have been working together to push back against extremist, destabilizing actors”. According to the spokesperson, Israel is a country of laws, and its actions over the past 15 months “benefit the interests of the free world and the United States, opening up an opportunity for a better future for the Middle East in the wake of the tragic war started by Hamas.”

Next week, Trump will inherit a demoralized State Department, part of the federal bureaucracy from which he has pledged to cull disloyal employees. Grappling with the near-daily images of carnage in Gaza, many across the US government have become disenchanted with the lofty ideas they thought they represented.

One senior diplomat said,” This is the human rights atrocity of our time.” ” I work for the department that’s responsible for this policy. I consented to this. … I don’t deserve sympathy for it”.

The southern city of Rafah was supposed to be a safe haven for hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who the IDF had forced from their homes in the north at the start of the war. When Biden learned that Netanyahu intended to invade the city this spring, he reaffirmed that if the Israelis succeeded in doing so, the US would stop providing them with offensive weapons.

” It is a red line”, Biden had said, marking the first high-profile warning from the US

Netanyahu still launched an invasion in May. Israeli tanks rolled into the city and the IDF dropped bombs on Hamas targets, including a refugee camp, killing dozens of civilians. Biden responded by pausing a shipment of 2, 000-pound bombs but otherwise resumed military support.

In response to the Geneva Conventions, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to halt its assault on the city in late May. Behind the scenes, State Department lawyers scrambled to come up with a legal basis on which Israel could continue smaller attacks in Rafah. In a May 24 email, the lawyers claimed that” there is room to argue that more scaled back/targeted operations, combined with better humanitarian efforts, would not meet that threshold.” While it’s not unreasonable for government lawyers to defend a close ally, critics say the cable illustrates the extreme deference the US affords Israel.

” The State Department has a whole raft of highly paid, very good lawyers to explain,’ Actually this is not illegal,’ when in fact it is”, said Ari Tolany, an arms trade authority and director at the Center for International Policy, a Washington-based think tank. Rules for thee and not for me

The administration says that it restrained Israel’s attack in Rafah. Lew claimed in a recent interview that the operation ultimately left fewer civilian casualties than expected. ” It was done in a way that limited or really eliminated the friction between the United States and Israel”, he added,” but also led to a much better outcome”.

Several experts told me international law is effectively discretionary for some countries. Aaron Miller, a career State Department diplomat who worked for decades as an advisor on Arab-Israeli negotiations, said,” American policy ignores it when it’s inconvenient and adheres to it when it’s convenient.” ” The US does not leverage or bring sustainable, credible, serious pressure to bear on any of its allies and partners”, he added,” not just Israel”.

Miller and others point out that the barbaric Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, sparked bipartisan support for Israel and made it much simpler for Biden to avoid holding the Israelis accountable for their retaliation.

There are other likely reasons for Biden’s unwillingness to impose any realistic limitations on Israel’s use of American weaponry since Oct. 7. For one, his career-long affinity for Israel — its security, people and the idea of a friendly democracy in the Middle East — is shared by many of the most powerful people in the country. The only thing that would remain is our commitment to our aid, I don’t even call it aid, our cooperation with Israel, Nancy Pelosi said in 2018, weeks before taking up her position as House speaker. That rationale aligned with the Democrats ‘ political goals during an election when they were wary of taking risks and upsetting large portions of the electorate, including the immensely powerful Israel lobby.

Officials from the State Department’s Middle East and communications divisions created a list of proposed public statements shortly after the ICJ’s order to address the Rafah invasion to state their concern for city residents. But Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesperson, nixed almost all of them. He told the officials in a May 24 email that those on the White House’s National Security Council “aren’t going to clear” any recognition of the ruling or criticism of Israel.

That signaled early on that the State Department was putting policy into the backseat. In its place, the NSC — largely led by Jake Sullivan, Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein — assumed a larger role. State Department officials repeatedly told me they felt marginalized this past year despite the NSC having grown significantly in size and influence over the past few decades.

” The NSC has final say over our messaging”, one diplomat said. ” All any of us can do is what they’ll allow us to do”.

The NSC did not schedule an interview with its senior leaders or respond to inquiries from ProPublica. Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser and brother to the State Department’s counselor, said recently it was difficult, for much of the past year,” to get the Israeli government to align with a lot of what President Biden publicly has been saying” about Gaza.

According to Sullivan, there are too many civilian casualties there, and Israel is frequently under both public and private pressure to improve the flow of humanitarian aid. ” We believe Israel has a responsibility — as a democracy, as a country committed to the basic principle of the value of innocent life, and as a member of the international community that has obligations under international humanitarian law — that it do the utmost to protect and minimize harm to civilians”.

During another internal State Department meeting in March, top regional diplomats voiced their frustrations about messaging and appearances. According to the notes from the conversation, Hady Amr, one of the government’s highest-ranking authorities on Palestinian affairs, said he was reluctant to speak up to large crowds about the administration’s Israel policy and that he had taken issue with a lot of it. He warned colleagues that the sentiment in Muslim communities was turning. Amr told them that the war has been” catastrophically bad for the US” from a public diplomacy perspective ( Amr did not respond to requests for comment ).

Another attendee at the meeting said they had been effectively sidelined by the NSC. A third said it was a huge amount of effort to even get permission to use the word” condemn” when talking about Israeli settlers demolishing Palestinians ‘ homes in the West Bank.

Such sanitizing language started to be used frequently. Alex Smith, a former contractor with the US Agency for International Development, said that at one point the State Department distributed NSC’s list of phrases that he and others weren’t allowed to use on internal presentations. For instance, they were meant to say “non-Israeli residents of Jerusalem” instead of” Palestinian residents of Jerusalem.” Another official told Smith in an email,” I would recommend not discussing]international humanitarian law ] at all without extensive clearances”.

A USAID spokesperson said in an email that the agency couldn’t discuss personnel matters, but the list of terms was given to the agency by the State Department as early as 2022, before the war in Gaza. According to the spokesperson, the list includes the” suggested terms that are in line with US diplomatic protocol.”

Deference to Israel is not new. When Israel is accused of violating human rights, the US has looked the other way for decades.

One of the most conspicuous paper tigers in American foreign policy is the Leahy Law, experts say. Passed more than 25 years ago, the law’s authors intended to force foreign governments to hold their own accountable for violations like torture or extrajudicial killings— or their military assistance would be restricted. The law made it possible to precisely target specific units when they faced credible allegations, preventing the US from having to detach entire nations from US-funded weapons and training. It’s essentially a blacklist.

Almost immediately, according to records, Israel received special treatment. In March 1998, IDF soldiers fired on journalists covering demonstrations in the West Bank city of Hebron. Congress asked the State Department, then led by Madeleine Albright, to take action under the new law. More than two years later, State Department officials wrote a letter to Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., the law’s namesake, informing the US Embassy that the soldiers were disciplined after the incident, but was unable to provide further information. ” It is the Department’s conclusion that there are insufficient grounds on which to conclude that the units involved committed gross violations of human rights”.

Despite numerous allegations made to the State Department, the US government has never disqualified an Israeli military unit under the law despite the fact that the nation has taken action across the globe in South America, the Pacific Rim, and elsewhere.

In 2020, the agency even set up a special council, called the Israel Leahy Vetting Forum, to assess accusations against the country’s military and police units. The forum is composed of State Department officials with expertise in human rights, arms transfers and the Middle East who review public allegations of human rights abuses before making referrals to the Secretary of State. The forum became well known as just another layer of bureaucracy that slowed down the process and protected Israel, despite its ambitious objectives to finally hold Israeli units accountable.

Current and former diplomats told me that US leaders are fundamentally unwilling to follow through on the law and cut off units from American-funded weapons. Instead, the experts said, they have developed several processes that appear to be accountable while also undermining any potential outcomes.

” It’s like walking toward the horizon”, said Charles Blaha, a former director at the State Department who served on the Israel Leahy Vetting Forum. ” You can always walk toward it but you will never ever get there”.

He continued,” I really believed in the Israeli military justice system and that the State Department was acting in good faith.” ” But both of those things were wrong”.

Even the most famous and ostensibly egregious cases fall into a bureaucratic black hole, according to a review of the vetting forum’s emails and meeting minutes from 2021 through 2022.

After the IDF was accused of killing Palestinian American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh in May 2022, videos circulated on the internet of Israeli police units beating pallbearers at her funeral. ” It is indeed very difficult to watch”, a deputy assistant secretary wrote in an email to a member of the forum. Another member stated to coworkers,” I think this would be what is actionable for the funeral procession itself as we wait for more information on circumstances of death and whether this would result in Leahy ineligibility.”

Neither Akleh’s killing, nor the funeral beatings, led to Leahy determinations against Israel.

Legislators have for years pushed the US government to act on Akleh’s case. Tim Rieser, a senior foreign policy aide who helped draft the Leahy Law, recently held a meeting with State Department officials to discuss the case again. The officials in the meeting again punted. He claimed that there is nothing wrong with an Israeli soldier who killed an American journalist. ” They are walking out the door on Jan. 20th and they haven’t implemented the law”.

A 15-year-old West Bank boy claimed he was tortured and raped at the Israeli detention facility Al-Mascobiya, or Russian Compound, in a separate case that the forum considered. For years, the State Department had been told about widespread abuses in that facility and others like it.

Military Court Watch, a local nonprofit organization of attorneys, collected testimony from more than 1, 100 minors who had been detained between 2013 and 2023. The majority of them claimed to have been beaten, and the majority claimed to have been strip searched. Some teens tried to kill themselves in solitary confinement. Children who were so afraid that they urched on themselves during arrests were recalled by IDF soldiers.

At the Russian Compound, a 14-year-old said his interrogator shocked and beat him in the legs with sticks to elicit information about a car fire. A 15-year-old said he was handcuffed with another boy. An Israeli policeman then entered the room and beat the other boy to the hilt, he claimed. A 12-year-old girl said she was put into a small cell with cockroaches.

According to Gerard Horton, one of the group’s co-founders, Military Court Watch frequently shared its information with the State Department. But nothing ever came of it. ” They receive all our reports and we name the facilities”, he told me. It “enters politics” as it moves up the political cliff. Everyone knows what’s going on and obviously no action is taken”.

Even the State Department’s own public human rights reports acknowledge widespread allegations of abuse in Israeli prisons. Citing nonprofits, prisoner testimony and media reports, the agency wrote last year that “detainees held by Israel were subjected to physical and sexual violence, threats, intimidation, severely restricted access to food and water”.

In the summer of 2021, the State Department reached out to the Israeli government and asked about the 15-year-old who said he was raped at the Russian Compound. Defense for Children International — Palestine, a nonprofit that had been initially designated a terrorist organization, was raided by the Israeli government the following day.

US human rights officials were therefore told not to speak to DCIP. ” A large part of the frustration was that we were unable to access Palestinian civil society because most NGOs” — nongovernmental organizations — “were considered terrorist organizations”, said Mike Casey, a former US diplomat in Jerusalem who resigned last year. ” All these groups were essentially the premier human rights organizations, and we were not able to meet with them”.

The State Department’s spokesperson, Mark Miller, stated in his statement that the organization has continued to cooperate with organizations in Israel and the West Bank while not “blanketly interfering” with organizations that document human rights abuses.

After the raid on DCIP, a member of the forum emailed his superior at the State Department and said the US should push to get an explanation for the raid from the Israelis and “re-raise our original request for info on the underlying allegation”.

But almost two years passed without any arrests, and participants in the forum struggled to obtain basic information about the case. Then, in the early months of the Israel war on Hamas, another State Department official reached out to DCIP and tried to reengage, according to a recording of the conversation.

” As you can imagine, it’s been a bit touchy here”, the official said on the call, explaining the months without correspondence. My superiors can dictate to me who I can talk to, according to the Israeli government.

The IDF eventually told the State Department it did not find evidence of a sexual assault but reprimanded the guard for kicking a chair during the teenager’s interrogation. The US has not yet shut down the Russian Compound on Leahy grounds.

In late April, there was surprising news: Blinken was reportedly set to take action against Netzah Yehuda, a notorious ultraorthodox IDF battalion, under the Leahy law.

The Leahy forum had recommended several cases to him. But he persisted for months on the recommendations. One of them was the case of Omar Assad.

On a chilly January 2022 night, Netzah Yehuda soldiers crossed over Assad, an elderly Palestinian American who was returning from a game of cards in the West Bank. They bound, blindfolded and gagged him and led him into a construction site, according to local investigators. He was found dead shortly after.

A dossier of evidence on the case, including testimony from family and witnesses, as well as a medical examiner’s report, was assembled by DAWN, an advocacy group founded by the murdered Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. The report found Assad had traumatic injuries to the head and other injuries that caused a stress-induced heart attack. The group presented the document to the Leahy forum at the State Department.

The dossier also included information about other incidents. For years, Netzah Yehuda has been accused of violent crimes in the West Bank, including killing unarmed Palestinians. Additionally, they have been found guilty of abusing and torturing detainees while they are incarcerated.

By late 2023, after the October 7 attacks, the experts on the forum decided that Assad’s case met all the conditions of the Leahy law: a human rights violation had occurred and the soldiers responsible had not been adequately punished. The battalion should no longer receive any American-funded training or weapons until the perpetrators are brought to justice, according to the forum’s advice.

ProPublica published an article in the spring of 2024 about Blinken sitting on the recommendations. But when he signaled his intention to take action shortly after, the Israelis responded with fury. The Israeli Defense Forces “must not be subject to sanctions”! Netanyahu posted on X. The intention to impose sanctions on an IDF unit is both a moral low and the height of absurdity.

The pressure campaign, which also reportedly came from Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. and Lew, the ambassador, appears to have worked. Blinken punched on an official decision for months. Then, in August, the State Department announced that Netzah Yehuda would not be cut off from military aid after all because the US had received new information that the IDF had effectively “remediated” the case. There is no evidence that anyone was charged with a crime, despite two of the soldiers involved being removed from active duty and making them ineligible to serve in the reserve.

Miller, the spokesperson, said the IDF also took steps to avoid similar incidents in the future, like enhanced screening and a two-week educational seminar for Netzah Yehuda recruits.

” In seven and a half years as director of the State Department office that implements the Leahy law worldwide”, Blaha wrote shortly after the announcement,” I have never seen a single case in which mere administrative measures constituted sufficient remediation”.

The Israeli government stated in a statement to ProPublica that the Israeli government had not examined specific cases, but that it had instead stated that the US administration had thoroughly examined each one, and that Israel had taken appropriate remedial measures.

Last summer, CNN documented how commanders in the battalion have been promoted to senior positions in the IDF, where they train ground troops and run operations in Gaza. According to a weapons expert, the weapons Netzah Yehuda soldiers have been reportedly pictured holding were likely made in the US.

Later in the year, Younis Tirawi, a Palestinian journalist who runs a popular account on X, posted videos showing IDF soldiers who recorded themselves rummaging through children’s clothing inside a home and demolishing a mosque’s minaret. Tirawi said the soldiers were in Netzah Yehuda. ( ProPublica was unable to independently verify the soldiers ‘ units. )

Hebrew text added to one of the videos said,” We won’t leave a trace of them”.

Human Rights Watch reported on November 14 and claimed that Israel’s forced displacement of Palestinians is widespread, systematic, and intentional. More than a year after the war started. It accused the Israelis of a crime against humanity, writing,” Israel’s actions appear to also meet the definition of ethnic cleansing”. ( A former Israeli defense minister has also made that allegation. )

Later that day, reporters inquired about the report’s conclusions with State Department spokesman Vedant Patel during a press briefing.

Patel said the US government disagrees and has not seen evidence of forced displacement in Gaza.

He continued,” That certainly would be a red line.”

Mariam Elba contributed research. Sign up for ProPublica’s The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.

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Bythen raises US mil in seed funding to democratize virtual influencers

  • aims to introduce classic and/or collaborative Internet collections with renowned IP owners.
  • Funding will move towards a global start, targeting 15, 000 online influencers&nbsp,

Bythen's Founders & Investors

Bythen, the pioneering platform that creates unique, ownable digital characters to empower virtual creators, has announced it has raised US$ 5 million ( RM22.5 million ) in a seed financing round led by Vector Inc. and Skystar Capital, with participation from East Ventures, BEENEXT, OSK, and AppWorks. Renowned angel investors, including William Tanuwijaya, co-founder of Tokopedia, and Ryan Lee, co-founder of Pinkfong Company, also took part in the round.

With this financing, Bythen is poised for a worldwide launch and aims to ship 15, 000 digital influencers this year across different sectors, including Web3, gaming, and other common verticals. The business will release its first initial Internet collection in the coming months, along with work by established worldwide IP owners.

Founded in 2024, Bythen enables users to create articles, video, and change tailored figures into AI-powered digital twins called” Bytes”, unlocking new opportunities to improve their online presence and advertise their effect. Using AI-powered content generation to help 24/7 engagement across various social media platforms, the platform makes it easier for users to access online influencers all over the world.

Operating on a revenue-sharing design, Bythen channels earnings up to its originator neighborhood, fostering an ecology that shares growth and success worldwide.

Bythen claims that the software empowers users to use their Bytes as distinctive social media representations, enabling intelligent articles creation and video replies across various platforms to increase their influence and uncover potential for profit. People can also use their Pixels for manual or automatic livestreaming on platforms like YouTube and Twitch as well as for movie names on platforms like Zoom or Google Meet. Users may create and save customised content featuring their Bytes using its AI-powered tools to increase their online presence and expand their reach.

The foundation crew of Bythen has co-founded and collaborated on projects for the past 16 years, including Bridestory and Magnivate, which WPP acquired in 2019 and Tokopedia acquired in 2019. The staff includes long-time partners Kevin Mintaraga, Erick Saputra, Ferry Dianto, and Nathalia Isadora, joined by William Nagata, who leads business development following command jobs at Shopee and a major company aggregate in Indonesia.

In response to a significant shift in the market toward pseudonymous social media personas and changing consumer attitudes, including a preference for privacy, freedom of expression, and the ability to create digital identities that are distinct from physical characteristics, the team established Bythen. These evolving preferences intersect with the rapidly expanding global creator economy, valued at US$ 325 billion ( RM1.4 trillion ) and encompassing over 200 million content creators—a space that Bythen aims to redefine.

” Bythen is all about amplifying creators ‘ potential. By providing an accessible platform and a revenue-sharing model, we’re cultivating an environment where anyone can thrive as a virtual creator”, said Kevin Mintaraga, co-founder of Bythen and former CMO of Tokopedia.

” Vector Inc. is proud to support a visionary serial entrepreneur who promotes innovation and empowers creators. Through our extensive expertise and global network, we are committed to assisting Bythen in acquiring high-value content and building strategic partnerships, both in Japan and international markets”, said Ryo Umezawa, vice president of Vector Inc.

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Will Japan win or lose under Trump 2.0? – Asia Times

Japan is experiencing something of an economic judgment that government officials seem to be omitted yet before Donald Trump’s resumption of office.

In at least four of the last five weeks of the year, Japan’s household saving fell. ” At least” is used here because the December numbers aren’t yet known. In November, real spending dropped 0.4 % year on year. There is no compelling reason to believe that stuff improved in the final 30 days of 2025.

The point is that the “virtuous cycle” Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba‘s Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) has promised since 2012 still hasn’t arrived. That’s despite all the vodka cork-popping from the flower when labor organizations received their biggest increase in 33 years.

Ishiba has merely led since October 1st. And with approval ratings in the mid-20s, he might not be about much longer. Maybe that’s why Ishiba didn’t even get a meeting with Trump, despite meeting with nearly every planet leader imaginable, including Prince William. Just not that of Japan, Trump 1.0’s leading supporter among democratic governments.

It’s on Ishiba’s see, nevertheless, that Japan’s pre-existing financial circumstances are catching up with the area. These include obstinate efforts to increase productivity and meritocracy in the labour force, lessen bureaucracy, revive the innovation that Japan Inc. was again famous for, empower women, and encourage more foreign corporations to relocate to Tokyo.

More than address these financial problems, the LDP continues to fiddling with the signs. Look no further than the Bank of Japan’s ( BOJ) interest rate policies, which have been stifled around zero for 25 years. The BOJ still lacks the will to raise rates above the current 0. 25 %.

Whatever happened to Shinzo Abe’s strong prepare 12 years ago to recreate Japan’s economic model? Sure, the late prime minister cajoled companies to increase shareholder price, driving the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to all-time peaks. However, as 2025 draws near, worldwide investors are realizing that their optimism is not being matched by recent and bold reform initiatives in Tokyo.

Nor is Asia’s second-biggest business firing on some cylinder. Regular wages aren’t keeping up with inflation, which is one reason why house spending is sluggish. What makes everyone believe they’ll feed their paychecks as the Trump 2.0 era begins if CEOs were unwilling to do so in 2024?

According to Takafumi Fujita, an economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute,” It’s feared that higher taxes that President Trump has promised on China and other nations could stifle the global business and eventually hit Japan.”

Along with financial stability, international cooperation initiatives seem very much at risk.

” The US, Europe and Japan reconnected in a revitalized, cohesive G7 on issues such as financial sanctions, cybercrime, anti-money laundering and helping Ukraine against Russia”, says Mark Sobel, &nbsp, US chairman at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum ( OMFIF ). ” But that unification, too, is likely to fight as Trump 2.0 introduces uncertainty and fluctuation”.

The same holds true for governmental evils that threaten the global financial system. As Sobel puts it:” Public debt is high in the US, many of Europe, Japan and China. In the US, the macroeconomic direction is unsustainable. Trump is likely to increase imbalances from the already excessively high level of 7 % of GDP, pushing up longer-term rates, hurting funding and causing business nausea. Does bond vigilantes gain”?

The BOJ is in a specially difficult status because of this. It is possible for the BOJ to delay the rate increase and maintain the policy for a while if the Chinese economy is adversely impacted by the US price boost without a matching depreciation of the yen, according to Hitoshi Asaoka, senior strategist at Asset Management One.

Frank Benzimra, mind of Asia capital approach at Societe Generale, notes that “in the coming months, the capital markets look set to be shaped by China –the level of governmental support – the US – the dollar, trade, diplomacy and the Bank of Japan – the possible catalyst for carry-trade sleeping – policies. The goal won’t have to be “bearish” in any way.

However, optimism abounds in Asian business circles. According to a Kyodo News survey, nearly 80 % of Japan’s top companies believe that the local market will continue to grow in 2025 as wage increases stimulate consumer spending.

However, every zig-and-zag may require a lot of market adaptation. ” Markets will be quite volatile but without much significant net direction, as the perceived odds of these different]tariff ] scenarios oscillate”, says Phil Suttle, principal at Suttle&nbsp, Economics.

That goes, also, for northern banks from Tokyo to Washington. According to Daniel McCormack, head of research at Macquarie Asset Management,” a significant amount of core bank easing is currently priced into most rates markets, while credit spreads have tightened in recent months and are now somewhat thin by traditional standards.”

This, according to McCormack, “limits the upside in terms of returns for bonds, and equity asset classes are likely to benefit more from the macroeconomic environment that we anticipate seeing in 2025.” That said, yields have improved significantly in recent years, and absolute returns in 2025 should be healthy by historical standards.

Bond markets have moved to price in aggressive easing cycles by most major central banks in the upcoming quarters, with the notable exception of the Bank of Japan, for which further increases are priced, following clear signals from central bank officials that further easing is likely.

As such, many BOJ watchers still think it’s full speed ahead for rate hikes. Takeshi Yamaguchi, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG, says”, we retain our base-case forecast of a rate hike in January.”

The BOJ will need to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation, according to BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who recently stated that “if economic activity and prices continue to improve, the BOJ will need to do so.”

And that “uncertainties regarding the incoming US administration’s economic policies” and how the annual Spring labor management wage negotiations will develop will have the final say on Japanese rates.

Izumi Devalier, an economist at Bank of America, says that Ueda’s comments” gave a stronger indication that the central bank may need to wait until at least the March&nbsp, monetary policy meeting to gain&nbsp, sufficient information&nbsp, to make the judgment for a hike.”

With a BOJ rate hike unlikely until March at the earliest, says Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Australia”, the risk of dollar-yen testing extending its rally towards 160/162 in early 2025 remains elevated “from 157 now.

Asaoka anticipates that the BOJ will increase the policy rate, which is regarded as neutral, to 1 % by the end of 2025. ” He adds that” if the Trump administration’s policies lead the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts in 2025, the BOJ will find it relatively easier to proceed with rate hikes.”

Some investors are betting on the return of the good times for Japanese stocks given that scenario.

” We expect the Nikkei 225 will reach 45, 400 and TOPIX to 3, 190 by the end of 2025 “from 39, 190 now, says Hisashi Shiraki, strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management.

He continues,” While foreign investors ‘ appetite for Japanese stocks appears sluggish, a sizable amount of share buybacks, up to 17 trillion yen in fiscal year 2024, could protect the downside and boost the stock market going forward.”

There’s an argument, too, that Japan Inc could benefit from deeper troubles being suffered elsewhere, says Junichi Inoue, head of Japanese equities at Janus Henderson Investors.

” Due to Japanese stocks ‘ comparatively low valuations versus global equities, and ongoing governance reforms contributing to return-on-equity improvements, we expect the market to demonstrate a certain level of resilience,” Inoue says.

Inoue also points out that” for these reasons, we think that Japanese equities can be seen as attractive risk-reward asset classes, deserving of an allocation in a diversified portfolio, particularly those that are exposed to global markets and global growth.”

However, such views may be deflated by global risks. Japan would absorb a lot of economic shrapnel, perhaps even more, despite Trump’s threatened trade war targeting China. For all China’s challenges, Xi Jinping’s team has been busily diversifying exports to Global South economies around the globe.

Shunsuke Kobayashi, chief economist at Mizuho Securities, acknowledges hope that Trump’s proposed tax reductions will help Japanese companies with significant US exposure offset the risks and increase profits. But either way, a giant trade war would slam Japan’s gross domestic product.

According to Kobayashi,” If that happens, capital investment would decline because we anticipate that exports will decline, ultimately affecting the broader economy.”

That could make Japan Inc. even less willing to raise wages. Japan has been more reluctant to turn its back on the American consumer. In Tokyo, there are no signs that the Fed will not be cutting interest rates as quickly as it had hoped.

Indeed, the Trumpian headwinds to come make 2025 a perilous time for Japan. Last month, the BOJ chose not to hike rates, which it later confirmed. Ahead of that December 19 decision, traders were primed for Ueda to tighten. Many felt its refusal to act smacked of fear, not pragmatism.

For the first time since 2011, traders last week pushed 10-year yields above 1.1 %, a clear indication that the BOJ erred by not raising.

” It’s like the rug was pulled out from under us,” Kazuhiko Sano, chief bond strategist at Tokai Tokyo Securities, tells Nikkei Asia.

Why should corporate executives and global investors if the BOJ doesn’t believe Japan is ready to abandon its financial training wheels?

Granted, there are legitimate arguments to support Japan Inc. companies that are cash-rich in their governance positions. Japan, after all, has carved out a place for itself as an Asia-region safe haven as deflation plagues China.

However, there will come a point when investors examine the underlying economy and wonder whether policy changes are keeping up with the level of optimism that is pervading the market.

A lack of household demand may give too many investors pause about Japan’s chances in the Trump 2.0 era as more and more investors look for an answer.

Of course, surprises are always possible. On the eve of July elections, Ishiba might find his reformist sea-legs and cling to power.

Trump might choose to prioritize a trade agreement with Xi’s China over a tariff-free arms race. Or perhaps the newly elected president will treat ally Japan favorably in the marketplace while punishing China.

But as a highly uncertain year begins, Japan’s past could catch up with it just as Ueda’s BOJ and Ishiba’s LDP stumble in the present.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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CEO fined over Singapore firm’s failure to recognise S million loss in financial statements

SINGAPORE: The chief executive officer of a Singapore manufacturing firm was fined S$ 22, 400 ( US$ 16, 400 ) on Friday ( Jan 10 ) over the company’s failure to recognise a S$ 16 million impairment loss in its financial statements.

&nbsp, Miyoshi Limited’s executive chairman and CEO Andrew Sin Kwong Wah had presented the financial statements for the year ending August 31, 2019 at the company’s annual general meeting, according to the command plate.

However, these remarks did not adhere to the Companies Act’s accounting standards.

The S$ 16 million impairment loss came from a decline in the value of the&nbsp, company’s equity investment in a foreign company, Core Power ( Fujian ) New Energy Automobile.

Miyoshi invests in the business, and according to its site, it invests in the business to create and market electric cars in China.

When a company’s stock prices fall below what is recorded on the books, an damage damage occurs.

To determine whether the purchase in the Chinese firm was impacted, Miyoshi had engaged an impartial valuation firm.

The impartial valuer’s document review, which was afterwards finalised by the independent appraiser with no substance changes, showed that a substantial damage had occurred.

The Accounting and Corporate Regulatory Authority (ACRA ) claimed that Miyoshi overstated the value of its net assets by the same amount and that the company also failed to recognize the investment loss of$ 16 million.

This meant Miyoshi Group’s economic claims in the 2019 fiscal year were “materially misstated” and gave an “inaccurate image” of the company’s financial health.

Had Miyoshi recognised the S$ 16 million damage decline in its FY2019 financial statements, the group’s lost, before income tax, may include increased by more than 30 days to S$ 16.78 million and its overall assets would have reduced by 19 per cent to about S$ 67.9 million.

The company, which is listed on the Singapore Exchange, called for a trading block at around noon on Friday. &nbsp, Shares of&nbsp, Miyoshi had traded at S$ 0.004 before the afternoon trading bust.

FINANCIAL Comments CHOSEN FOR EXAMEN

ACRA reviewed Miyoshi’s audited financial statements as part of its economic monitoring and surveillance program. &nbsp,

The power checks a number of financial statements to see if they adhere to accounting standards, and Miyoshi’s non-compliance was discovered during the evaluation.

” Managers have a fundamental commitment to provide accurate and reliable monetary details”, said ACRA.

” Providing investors with reliable and important financial data for decision-making will boost investors ‘ and other stakeholders ‘ confidence in the clarity, integrity, and excellent of economic reporting in Singapore”.

A fine of up to S$ 250 000 is assessed for non-compliance with budgeting requirements. For crimes committed on or before Jun 30, 2023, the sentence is a fine of up to S$ 50, 000.

ACRA stated that it would not be hesitant to take legal actions if an accounting standard is broken.

This is done to maintain confidence in the reliability and credibility of economic reporting in Singapore, according to the expert.

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FX speculators drive China’s yuan to 17-year lows – Asia Times

As 2025 begins, some central banks classmates envy the tug of war facing Women’s Bank of China Governor Pan&nbsp, Gongsheng.

Forex traders are pulling one area, predicting that Beijing will react to Donald Trump’s upcoming industry war with a weaker yuan. Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has previously opposed creating a lower transfer charge, is on the other side.

By setting the yuan’s regular reference rate even higher than the psychologically significant 7,2 per dollar level, Pan’s team once more signaled its support for a stable yuan this week. The yuan’s decline, which came after it was 7.3 % per dollar, caused it to decline.

Although the yuan is trading at its lowest level in 17 years, Beijing’s upward pressure on trade costs extends far beyond that region. Most major Asian region currencies fell on Monday ( 6 January ), as the US dollar traded at two-year highs.

” Trump’s business plan ideas are driving renewed anticipation of a stronger-for-longer US money”, writes BMI, a Fitch Solutions business, in a statement. ” This has the ability to deliver prices lower” in China.

Along with” Trump business” relationships strengthening the money, investors are responding to ideas from the US Federal Reserve that price reductions may be infrequent in 2025.

For one thing, US prices isn’t receding when fast as hoped. For one thing, the American labour market continues to have unmatched vigor yet as international repercussions increase.

Nothing is greater than the potent Chinese demand suffocating collapsing property markets. Depreciation is being caused by the resulting decline in confidence and retail sales.

” With deflationary pressures mounting despite expectations for more aggressive policy easing, the Chinese 10-year yield has dropped below 1.6 %, signaling a flight to safety”, says Carlos&nbsp, Casanova, economist at Union Bancaire Privée.

This situation, Casanova adds,” could be similar to Japan’s experience in the early 1990s, with the potential for a considerable carry trade involving borrowing in renminbi to invest in higher-yielding U.S. assets,” which has significant implications for US risk assets, specially if policymakers permit the yuan to diminish in 2025.

The good news is that new statistics indicate that China is regaining some ground. Private business activity in the services sector reached a seven-month deep in December. The Caixin companies buying professionals ‘ index from S&amp, P Global rose to 52.2 from 51.5 in November.

However, challenges are intensifying, says Wang Zhe at Caixin Insight Group. The “external atmosphere”, the scholar warns, is poised to be “more difficult” in 2025, requiring “early” policy approaches and” sharp responses”.

Beijing officials met on Monday to comfort jittery investors selling Shanghai and Shenzhen stock. Leaders at both markets stressed that” solid fundamentals and resilience” support China’s US$ 17 trillion market. They likewise said they’re positively working” to solicit ideas and ideas” from international organizations.

Part of this effort, Casanova observes, is for many big cities to offer usage tickets. Coastal cities like Shanghai are focusing on companies such as dining and entertainment, while inland towns in Hubei and Sichuan are targeting industries like furniture, cars, and technology.

It’s tempting to observe Beijing show “greater determination to implement more measures”, he says.

One of them is the PBOC’s decision to increase funding for creativity. The plan, as the central banks puts it, is to devise ways to promote “high-quality international cash” to invest in China’s battered technology sector.

Above all, though, Pan’s team is pledging to keep the currency stable. According to the pro-PBOC publication Financial News, China’s central bank will “resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshooting and maintain the fundamental stability” of the yuan.

It notes that past “experience of multiple rounds of appreciation and depreciation” proved&nbsp, Pan has” sufficient” tools to keep the exchange rate “basically stable”.

Only time will tell. The yuan’s declines are frequently closely related to the yuan’s decline in China’s stock markets.

Since the beginning of December, Gavekal Research’s economist Louis Gave has noted that the US and China benchmark financing costs have increased by about 80 basis points.

This reinforces the market narrative of a remarkable — and likely inflationary — US economy that is about to enter a new growth phase, while China is scurrying over the threshold of a deflationary lost decade, according to Gave. The phrase “message from equity markets, with Chinese stocks having a funk the entire year” is what follows.

However, according to Gave, a “broader look at asset markets in China and the US tells a different story, as Chinese equities outperformed the seemingly all-conquering US stock market in 2024.” Heading into 2025, Gave notes that despite China’s challenges, underlying fundamentals may favor the valuations of Chinese equities.

That’s partly due to the PBOC’s increased commitment to stabilizing Asia’s largest economy.

As of now, says Mohamed&nbsp, El-Erian, chief advisor at Allianz, the “implosion” of yields on Chinese government bonds is fueling “what could become self-fulfilling worries about the Japanification of the economy”. This “yield phenomenon has intensified” in recent days, he adds.

Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, notes that” after many fits and starts over the past year, greater evidence is needed that China’s economy is responding to stabilization measures“.

There are indications that more powerful action is in order. The annual Central Economic Work Conference last month gave stock and property markets a higher priority than it did last month.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs speculate that policymakers ‘ “pain threshold” regarding growth and asset prices may have been reached. However, policy implementation is required to increase equity in 2025.

There’s not a moment to waste, says Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier. Lee notes that” the underlying momentum for China continues to be quite fragile,” and that it will take some efforts from the authorities to change the conversation about the country’s deflationary dangers in the medium term.

Of course, there’s ample reason to worry that the dollar’s best days are behind it as investors home in on Washington’s$ 36 trillion debt load. Meanwhile, Team Trump has made hints about plans to slack the dollar in order to gain a competitive advantage over China and the rest of Asia. Trump also has threatened to reduce the Fed’s autonomy, giving his White House a direct say in US rate decisions.

Even so, many economists believe a dollar reversal might take longer than the bears would like.

According to Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale,” the dollar may be vulnerable, but only if the US data confounds market expectations that the Fed doesn’t cut rates more than once in the first half of this year, and not by more than 50 basis points throughout 2025 .”

Although” there’s a good chance of that happening,” Juckes asserts, “it seems very unlikely that cracks in US growth will appear early in the year; hence my preference is to take any bearish dollar thoughts with me into hibernation until the weather improves.”

The PBOC is a source of contention in part. There are a number of reasons why neither Pan nor Xi want to see the yuan decline sharply.

For one, a weaker yuan would make it more difficult for highly indebted individuals, such as property developers, to pay off their offshore debt, increasing the risk of default in Asia’s largest economy. Seeing# ChinaEvergrande or# ChinaVanke&nbsp, trending again in cyberspace is the last thing Xi’s Communist Party wants.

For one thing, the monetary easing needed to keep the yuan’s declines could stymie Xi’s deleveraging efforts over the past five years. Beijing has made significant strides in lowering China’s financial woes and raising the national’s gross domestic product’s quality.

As a result, Xi and Premier Li Qiang have been reluctant to let the PBOC slash rates more assertively, even as deflation clouds China’s outlook.

The most significant reform accomplishment of Xi may be increasing the yuan’s use in finance and trade. In 2016, China won a place for the yuan in the International Monetary Fund’s” special drawing rights” basket joining the dollar, yen, euro and pound.

Since then, the currency’s use in trade and finance has soared. Excessive easing now might dent trust in the yuan, slowing its progression to reserve-currency status.

A weaker yuan could also lead to a wider Asian currency war that is not everyone’s best interest. Tokyo might be all-in on a much weaker yen, entice South Korea into the fray.

Memories of 2015 are clearly entering into Beijing’s equation. China’s decision to devalue the yuan by nearly 3 % a decade ago led to a destabilizing capital flight that still bothers Communist Party leaders. Over the next year, Xi’s team had to draw down Beijing’s foreign exchange reserves by$ 1 trillion to restore calm.

For now, the” PBOC is signaling that it wants a stable RMB, probably dashing the hopes of those betting that RMB will continue to devalue meaningfully against the US dollar”, says longtime China watcher&nbsp, Bill&nbsp, Bishop, who writes the Sinocism newsletter. &nbsp,

Robin Brooks, economist at the Brookings Institution, says that “medium-term, this does raise the risk of capital flight out of China, especially if the US imposes tariffs”. Generally speaking, Brooks believes, a falling yuan won’t necessarily shake up the global economy because” the yuan is heavily manipulated and isn’t moving”.

Still, risks abound. China could become a more contentious issue in US politics as a scheinbar anti-China administration ascends to power.

They include hardliners like Peter Navarro, co-author of a book titled” Death by China”, as top trade adviser. Marco Rubio, criticized by China as Trump’s secretary of state, is also in the same boat. or adding Jamieson Greer and Robert Lighthizer to Trump’s team of trade negotators.

There’s hope that Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, can ensure that cooler heads prevail. Bessent, it’s believed, would represent the camp in Trump World making sure Trump’s tariff talk is merely a negotiating tactic to achieve a giant trade deal with Beijing.

Either way, Team Xi might want to avoid drawing Trump’s ire. These [risks ], in our opinion, indicate that the PBOC would like to control the rate of yuan depreciation against the dollar and prevent a sharp depreciation prior to the US tariff announcement, according to Goldman’s economists.

Only Pan and Xi know for sure, though. Asia’s markets will be glued to Beijing’s yuan policy for the entire year as it addresses both domestic and global risks in 2025.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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China’s young workers – overqualified and in low-paying jobs

BBC/Rachel Yu Sun Zhan, 25, smiles and tilts his head to the side as he poses for a picture inside what looks like a restaurant. BBC/Rachel Yu

A shipping driver studied philosophy, a high-school locksmith received a master’s degree in physics, a high-school locksmith received a master’s degree in physics, and a graduate of Tsinghua University received a PhD to function as an ancillary police officer.

These are actual instances of a struggling business, and they are not difficult to replicate.

As Sun Zhan prepares to begin his change as a waiter in a warm bowl restaurant in Nanjing,” My dream job was to work in investment bank.”

The 25-year-old just graduated with a master’s degree in finance. He was hoping to “make a lot of money” in a high-paying position but adds,” I looked for such a career, with no great effects”.

Thousands of college graduates are produced annually in China, but there aren’t enough work for them in some fields.

The market has been struggling and stalling in key areas, including real estate and production.

Before the method of measuring the images was changed to make the situation look better, 20 % of youth poverty had been soaring. In August 2024, it was still 18.8 %. 16.1 % has dropped since November’s newest reading.

Many college graduates who struggled to find employment in their chosen field of study are now working for salaries that fall far below what their professional standards require, which raises questions from their families and friends.

When Sun Zhan became a server, this was met with anger by his kids.

” My family’s thoughts are a major issue for me. After all, I studied for many years and went to a very nice school”, he says.

He says his home is embarrassed by his career option and would prefer he tried to become a common servant or standard, but, he adds,” this is my selection”.

Yet he has a key program. He intends to employ his time working as a servant to learn how to run a restaurant so that he can later open his own restaurant.

He believes that the critics in his home will have to change their tune if he succeeds in running a successful enterprise.

According to Professor Zhang Jun of the City University of Hong Kong,” The job position is really, truly challenging in coast China,”” I think many young people have to actually reevaluate their expectations.”

She claims that many individuals are pursuing higher degree to improve their chances of success, but that the truth of the work environment eventually hits them.

” The employment industry has been really tough”, says 29-year-old Wu Dan, who is already a intern in a sports injury treatment center in Shanghai.

” For many of my mentor level colleagues, it’s their first time hunting for a career and very few of them have ended up getting one”.

She even didn’t believe that this would lead to her graduating from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology with a degree in finance.

Due to this, she worked at a future trading business in Shanghai, where she was specialising in agricultural goods.

When she returned to the island after finishing her experiments in Hong Kong, she made an offer to work for a private equity firm, but she was unhappy with the terms.

Her family did not like the fact that she started training in activities treatments and didn’t recognize any of them.

” They thought I had for a good work before, and my academic history is very competitive. They were unable to explain why I chose a low-barrier job that required me to perform natural labor for a small salary.

Without her partner’s house and the fact that she is currently employed, she would not be able to live in Shanghai.

At first, she didn’t know someone who supported her current career, but her family has since changed since she just treated her for her poor up, significantly lessening the pain she had been going through.

The one-time financing student then claims that, in fact, living in an investment industry is against her wishes.

She says she is interested in sports injury, likes the work and, one time, wants to start her own doctor.

BBC/RachelYu Wu Dan, 29, says she couldn't find a job in finance with good conditions. She is now a trainee in a sport massage clinicBBC/RachelYu

According to Prof. Zhang, Chinese graduates are being forced to alter their perceptions of what might be regarded as” a good position.”

In what might be seen as” a warning signal” for younger people, “many companies in China, including some tech firms, have laid off quite a lot of staff”, she adds.

She also says that important areas of the market, which had once been large companies of graduates, are offering sub-standard conditions, and good opportunities in these fields are disappearing altogether.

Unemployed graduates have also been turning to the film and television industries as they figure out what to do in the future.

Big budget movies need lots of extras to fill out their scenes and, in China’s famous film production town of Hengdian, south-west of Shanghai, there are plenty of young people looking for acting work.

As eye candy, I primarily stand next to the protagonist. I am seen next to the lead actors but I have no lines”, says Wu Xinghai, who studied electronic information engineering, and was playing a bodyguard in a drama.

The 26-year-old makes fun of how his attractiveness helped him get a job as an extra.

He claims that people frequently travel to Hengdian and work for only a short period of time. He claims that this is only a temporary solution until he finds a permanent solution. ” I don’t make much money but I’m relaxed and feel free”.

Getty Images Many young graduates travel to Hengdian to work as movie extras in the studios' productionsGetty Images

” This is the situation in China, isn’t it? The moment you graduate, you become unemployed”, says Li, who didn’t want to give his first name.

He has signed up to work as an extra for a few months and majored in screenwriting and film directing.

” I’ve come here to look for work while I’m still young. When I get older, I’ll find a stable job”.

However, many people worry that they won’t be able to find a good job and may have to accept a role that isn’t their cup of tea.

Young people frequently don’t know what the future holds for them because they are uncertain about the direction the Chinese economy will take.

Wu Dan claims that even her friends who work can feel a little lost.

They feel that the future is uncertain and are quite perplexed. Those with jobs aren’t satisfied with them. They don’t know for how long they can hold onto these positions. And what else can they do if they lose their current position?”

She says she will “go with the flow and gradually explore what I really want to do.”

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