India election 2024: How Modi’s rivals came back from the brink

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14 days previously

Geeta Pandey,BBC News, Delhi

BBC Rahul Gandhi, senior leader of the Indian National Congress Party, speaks during a press conference.BBC

The benefits of India’s standard election that was announced on Tuesday are being interpreted in a more unusual manner. While the victors appear subdued, the runners- away are celebrating.

The NDA empire, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has won a traditional second term in strength, with more than 290 seats in the 543- associate parliament.

However, his Bharatiya Janata Party on its own did not achieve the necessary 272 tickets, making the prime minister now seen as a much less powerful head.

The goal is being seen as a “huge return” for the opposition INDIA empire and Congress party chief Rahul Gandhi, the republic’s “unofficial mascot”.

The alliance has won just over 230 seats and is n’t able to put together a government, but more than 24 hours after counting the votes began, they were still holding out.

” It’s an amazing account”, political analyst Rashid Kidwai told the BBC. ” The result is astonishing. The criticism has managed to pull off the unpredicted”.

A cheery Congress party, whose party had focused primarily on Mr. Modi’s title and record, called the conviction” a moral and political beat for him.” Mr. Gandhi stated at a press conference on Tuesday evening that” the country has unanimously declared to Mr. Modi and [ Home Minister ] Amit Shah that we do not want you.”

There’s a landscape to this joy.

Getty Images Supporters of the Samajwadi party and Congress party gathered in an election rally on May 17, 2024 in Rae Bareli, India. Getty Images

Going into the election, the opposition seemed in complete disarray and the Congress-led INDIA bloc, made up of more than two dozen disparate regional parties, appeared to be on the verge of imploding. Experts questioned whether it was fit to challenge Mr Modi, who looked unstoppable at the time.

And as the poll neared, the criticism faced an uphill battle. Two main officials, including Arvind Kejriwal of Delhi, were imprisoned, and bank accounts belonging to the Congress were frozen by the income-tax authorities. Additionally, two leaders and parties were targeted by government organizations.

The payment for the opponent’s performance, Mr Kidwai says, mostly goes to Mr Gandhi, the little condemned scion of the Nehru- Gandhi dynasty. His great-grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru was India’s second and longest-serving perfect minister. His father and mother even served as prime minister.

” He’s a second generation dynast and came with a lot of historical baggage”, the political analyst explains. ” The mainstream media in India was very hostile toward him, and social media did n’t take him seriously. He was targeted and portrayed as a “non-serious legislator who took to some vacations.”

But, Mr Kidwai says, he overcame the conflict and, in recent years, has worked hard to change that feeling of himself and his group.

“During his Bharat Jodo Yatra and the Nyay March through the length and breadth of the country, he met millions of people – which added to his stature and won him lots of support. It also gave him confidence and political heft.”

But Mr Gandhi was still not perceived as a threat to Mr Modi. Last year, a court in Mr Modi’s home state Gujarat convicted the Congress leader of defamation. He was thrown out of parliament and barred from contesting elections – until the Supreme Court suspended his conviction.

Getty Images A cut-out of Hindu deity Ram is installed on light poles in Ayodhya on January 21, 2024, on the eve of consecration ceremony of a Ram temple Getty Images

The belief that the BJP was seeking to go after the opposition, says political researcher and writer Ajoy Bose, backfired.

” The BJP got a little rude and comfortable. However, their intimidation tactics and shock and awe approaches worked against the BJP and caused the formation of the INDIA bloc.

The parties, he says, “were worried they may be wiped off and some saw echoes of Emergency]a reference to the 1975 action of next- PM Indira Gandhi to halt elections and suppress civil rights ] in the way the government was functioning”.

According to Mr. Bose, India has a “history of competitive democracy,” adding that among the electorates” there was a sense of unease and discomfort about the country turning into a one-party dictatorship.”

As the results indicate, the BJP juggernaut faced strong opposition in a number of state-controlled by the opposition.

The DMK, the ruling party in Tamil Nadu, won all 39 of the state’s 39 seats, keeping the BJP at bay. In West Bengal, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee fought to limit the BJP to 12 seats ( Mr Modi’s party had won 18 of the 42 seats in 2019 ). In Maharashtra, the BJP was limited to nine seats – it had won 23 of the 48 seats in 2019 and its then- ally Shiv Sena had bagged a further 18.

However, Mr. Bose claims that the BJP and Mr. Modi caused the biggest uproar in Uttar Pradesh ( UP), which is a bellwether state.

The biggest election success story is “Akhilesh Yadav and his Samajwadi Party ( SP). A very clever alliance with Rahul Gandhi won them 43 of the state’s 80 seats. The BJP’s tally has been set at a subpar 33. Mr Modi’s party won 62 seats in 2019 and took 71 in 2014.

In the run- up to the election, Mr Modi had described Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav as” a pair of boys” whose alliance had “flopped” many times in the past. However, as the results indicate, this pair of boys clearly outperform the BJP in UP.

” A key takeaway from the election”, Mr Bose says, “is that the grand new Ram temple in Ayodhya city was n’t enough for the BJP to win”.

Getty Images Senior leader of Congress party Rahul Gandhi attend a joint rally of India alliance in support of Samajwadi party national president and SP candidate from Kannauj parliamentary seat Akhilesh Yadav on May 10, 2024 in Kannauj, India. Getty Images

The party had favored the Ram Mandir temple as their trump card, with Mr. Modi leading the celebration of the unfinished temple’s January opening with much fervor. But in the Faizabad constituency, where it is located, the BJP candidate lost.

Abhishek Yadav, a leader of the SP youth wing and a prominent campaigner for his party, told the BBC that they initially believed the temple would aid the BJP in winning the crucial state.

” Until early April ,]the ] election in the state had seemed like a one- sided contest with the odds stacked against us”, Mr Yadav told me recently. When large numbers of people began gathering at our rallies, we initially thought there was an undercurrent of resentment against the BJP.

He claimed that there were many unemployed people and high food and fuel prices. Many criticized the new methods for recruiting army personnel.

All anti-BJP voters came together to vote for us because the Congress and SP are fighting the election together as a part of the INDIA alliance, he added.

Mr. Kidwai claims that despite the surprisingly strong performance of the opposition, the INDIA bloc failed to read the voters ‘ minds and did not recognize the unease they felt with Mr. Modi’s administration.

” They spoke about joblessness, rural economic distress and were able to win over many voters– but there were lots of gaps in their strategy”, he says. The third term of the NDA has only been a result of inconsistencies in the INDIA bloc. They could have formed alliances in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, which would have increased their total.

But now that the NDA – and Mr Modi – are back in power, INDIA needs to institutionalise its alliance and Mr Gandhi,” the chief architect of the alliance”, must lead from the front, Mr Kidwai adds.

” It’s unlikely that the government will stop going after the opposition. But it also ca n’t be business as usual for the government. They must be toned down in order for them to continue their vendetta-fueled politics.

The strength of the opposition in parliament would allow for restored constitutional relations. There’s great need for coalition politics now. And Congress must take the lead as the coalition’s single largest opposition party.

” The Gandhis consider themselves as trustees of power, not power- wielders. However, a change is now necessary. Rahul Gandhi must assume the role of leader.

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Doctor suspended after misdiagnosis resulted in teenage patient losing testicle

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SINGAPORE: A experienced physician has been suspended for a year by the Singapore Medical Council ( SMC) for specialized misconduct, after a mistake in 2019 resulted in a young individual losing his testicles.

Dr. Yeo Khee Hong, who has practiced medicine in his native tongue for about 42 years, initially diagnosed the teen with abdominal complication, which he afterwards discovered caused him to have testicles that were swollen and inflamed, and prescribed him antibiotics and stomach-related medicine.

However, the boy’s situation worsened despite repeated visits to Dr Yeo, until he had to have surgery to remove his testicles. His actual situation was testicular bending, a condition in which the umbilical cord that controls blood flow to the testicle twists and obstructs body flow.

According to the reasons for the case’s decision, which was made on Monday ( May 27 ), the boy had an estimated 90.4 % to 90.2 % chance of recovering his testis if he had been referred for urgent care in time.

THE Event

Dr. Yeo admitted guilt to one count of skilled misconduct for allegedly failing to manage his person with due care and care.

Sentencing was taken into account when considering a second command of failing to provide the individual with sufficient details.

The child was 15 or 16 when he consulted Dr Yeo at his clinic on Mar 22, 2019.

He claimed that his remaining stomach was experiencing problems that began in his left testis.

He even had increased bowel movements, with watery stools.

Dr. Yeo examined the boy, and he discovered that neither his remaining testis nor his abdomen had any unusual mass or torsion.

He gave the boy stomach-related medication after he identified his chest pain.

Five days later, the teenager reported that he had swelling and pain in his left gonads, which he claimed felt worse while sat or walking.

Dr. Yeo examined the child, and discovered that his remaining testis was delicate and enlarged.

He identified the child with cystitis and epididymitis, which is swelling and inflammation in the remaining testis. He gave the boy antibiotics, and he also requested that he have his diagnosis verified by conducting a complete blood count and urine test.

But, before arriving at his treatment, Dr Yeo did not consider the possibility of continuous genital bending.

He disregarded this and concluded that cystitis and orchitis were more likely. &nbsp,

Before excluding testicular torsion, Dr. Yeo even did not refer the child to a doctor or the hospital’s accident and emergency department.

The teen’s mother received a notification of the results of the blood exam the following morning, stating that an illness was most likely to be the cause of the swelling. He requested that the youngster keep the medications he had prescribed.

The boy’s state did not improve. On April 1, 2019, his father called Dr. Yeo to complain that his brother was in excruciating pain.

Dr. Yeo requested urgent treatment for the boy because he was in such critical situation and should be taken to an accident and emergency department.

A chest ultrasound revealed left genital bending, which the boy went to the hospital. &nbsp,

He had his left testis removed, and he was taken to a medical unit.

CASE COMES TO SMC

The SMC was informed that a “reasonable and skilled doctor” in Dr. Yeo’s place would have taken into account the possibility of continuous testicular bending at the discussion on March 27, 2019, and would not have dissuaded it from the differential treatment without first referring the person to a professional or an accident &amp, emergency department of a hospital.

Until proven otherwise, the applicable standard of care treats all acute scrotal pain as testicular torsion.

Around July 2020, the boy’s father complained to the SMC, alleging that Dr. Yeo was careless in his son’s removal of the left testicle and failed to properly diagnose and reduce the risk of testicular torsion.

Dr. Yeo responded to the SMC’s complaint in response and later wrote an apology letter to the patient and his family.

If Dr. Yeo had referred the patient to a specialist or the hospital’s accident &amp, emergency department during the consultation on March 27, 2019, the patient’s likely early testicular salvage rate would have been an estimated 90.4 % to 90.2 %, according to the decision’s justification.

According to Mr. Chia Voon Jiet, Mr. Chia Voon Jiet, Ms. Lee I-Lin and Ms. Chin Dan Ting from Drew &amp, Napier, Dr. Yeo’s misconduct delayed the patient’s diagnosis and treatment, leaving him with a slim chance of salvaging his left testis.

The loss caused the boy both physical and psychological distress. &nbsp,

The potential harm to the boy also includes fertility issues from losing a testis, said SMC’s lawyers.

Dr Yeo, who was represented by Mr Christopher Chong and Ms Sharon Liu from Dentons Rodyk &amp, Davidson, said he was “deeply saddened” by the patient’s plight.

He accepted that he should be disciplined for not referring the boy to an accident and emergency department on March 27, 2019.

He claimed, however, that a quick referral would not have ensured the survival of the testis.

The SMC’s attorney claimed that Dr. Yeo had acted improperly and that his treatment of the patient was insufficient for the purpose.

The lawyers claimed that Dr. Yeo was content to treat the patient with antibiotics, conduct laboratory tests, and “make the decision to refer only if the pain and swelling persisted in a few days and depending on the full blood count test results” despite the patient’s clinical presentation and age suggesting that he may have had testicular torsion.

In response, Dr. Yeo responded that despite his physical examination of the patient, he had considered the possibility of testicular torsion. However, his preferred preliminary diagnosis was orchitis and epididymitis.

Dr. Yeo called Dr. Yeo’s decision to not warn the boy about the possibility of testicular torsion” a wrong judgment call,” but he also claimed it was “out of good intention because he did not want to cause the patient an unnecessary amount of distress.”

He acknowledged errors on his part but said he was thinking about the boy’s well-being and best interests without making any suggestion that he was acting inadvertently or maliciously.

On top of the 12- month suspension, Dr Yeo will also be censured. He will have to give the SMC a written promise that he will refrain from doing the same thing or engaging in any other similar behavior, and he will have to cover the costs and costs of the proceedings, including the expenses caused by SMC’s attorneys.

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These common items at home could be dangerous to your pet cat: Scented candles, bleach, plants and more

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It’s not only scented lights. What are even known to poison animals include essential oils of special oak, lemon, wood, ylang ylang, mint, cardamom, cloves, eucalyptus and tea tree. And since we are n’t positive of any feline- helpful essential oils, it is best never to fire, spread, paint or vaporise any in their culture, advised Dr Tong.

Usually, animals come into contact with important lubricants through metabolism, she said. When inhaled, the vapours may aggravate a person’s respiratory system and make them ill or troubled. Important oil vapours can even get on the cat’s coat and getting ingested during self- grooming, she added. Essential oils cannot be metabolized by cats because their livers lack an enzyme.

Signs that your cat needs the vet’s attention right away include a watery nose or eyes, drooling and/or vomiting, and difficulty breathing, said Dr Tong. ” Difficulty in breathing in a cat is evidenced by laboured breathing, fast breathing, panting, coughing or wheezing”.

BLEACH

Some cats seem to get high on bleach. How else do you explain the compulsive rubbing, sniffing, purring and rolling on any surface that has been wiped with the strong- smelling disinfectant?

Turns out, chlorine is also present in the pheromones your feline companion produces to indicate territory or alert a potential mate or fecund cat. According to Dr. Tong,” The behavior may be due to the chlorine odour in bleach as the smell may cause your cat to react similarly to pheromones,” said the dr.

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IN FOCUS: ‘At the click of a button’ – the scourge of deepfake AI porn

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In the near future, countries may adopt laws relating to spoofing AI sex.

The federal government of Australia announced in May that it would introduce legislation to outlaw the development and non-consensual distribution of algorithmic porn.

A new law that criminalizes the production of sexually explicit deepfakes without permission was likewise announced by the UK’s Ministry of Justice in April.

Additionally, the new law also stipulates that if the creator does not intend to share it but does wish to” produce alarm, humiliation, or stress to the victim” they will also be tried in court.

When asked if Singapore needs to pass laws to protect against AI-related acts, Mr. Chooi said that the engineering is still evolving.

Because the world moves very quickly, you would n’t want to be passing laws every month or every few years. People are even completely perplexed, he said, and you end up with a very wholesale type of scenario.

Mr. Wong argued that having specific laws may be beneficial, but there might be too many details to handle.

It’s actually the use of AI or its misuse that causes the issue, he said, and it’s very difficult to try to enact every single thing.

There is also the possible problem of under- policy, where the legislation is very large.

” And then you realise that actually ( the ) law is a bit defective”, he said.

With the existing laws, whether it’s the Penal Code or the Miscellaneous Offences Act, they are currently sufficiently broad to cover all this, and we might give it some more day to see how we will basically criminalize AI-related offenses.

If there is some AI use no captured within Singapore’s present regulations, that would be the breaking point to drive for more policy, Mr Wong added.

Another situation might arise where, in Mr. Chooi’s opinion, the highest sentences permitted by the current laws do not appear to be proportionate to the crime. In such a situation, politicians may need to consider enacting new rules.

He said,” I believe a certain amount of such cases must typically be brought up first.” &nbsp,

” When we condemn people, and people are prosecuted and sentenced, one of the goals is public punishment, which is to deliver a message to the public”, Mr Chooi added.

” If it’s not that common therefore there’s no solid reason to do that”.

In response to CNA’s questions, the Attorney- General’s Chambers said it has not prosecuted situations related to AI- generated sex in Singapore.

” For crimes are fairly new, made feasible by the recent development of AI technology”, a spokesperson said.

The attorneys said they have never physically encountered cases where someone is accused of producing vulgar pictures because they are undoubtedly responsible for doing so.

When pressed on why this is the situation, Mr. Wong responded that it must first be reported to the authorities. He gave the example of one superimposing a face on a bare body.

Let’s say I’m unaware of it, or that someone who sees it may not even consider reporting it as false, he said.

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Man nabbed in fortune-telling scam

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PUBLISHED: 19 May 2024 at 17: 00

Man nabbed in fortune-telling scam
Suwatchai Chiangmai, 37, is being detained for allegedly defrauding people with money in a fortune-telling hoax. On Saturday, police officers speak with him. ( Photo: Wassayos Ngamkham )

After extorting more than 100 people with money during a two-year fraud, a person has been detained for posing as an online wealth banker with psychic abilities.

Suwatchai Chiangmai, a 37-year-old con artist, was apprehended by officials from the Metropolitan Police Bureau on Saturday at the Golden Place convenience store in Bangkok’s Chatuchak city. He was wanted based on a warrant that the Phra Nakhon Nua court had issued for bribery and entering false information into a computer program. &nbsp,

Pol Maj Gen Theeradej Thamsuthee, chief of the MPB investigation division, said on Sunday Mr Suwatchai, a Bangkok local, used a Facebook page named” Jakree Chaengmai” to scam people out of cash, &nbsp, with fees starting from 199 baht. He claimed to be a psychic who could speak with goddesses in heaven. &nbsp,

He explained to his customers that they were dealing with misery, but that he could perform a Brahmin ceremony to elude bad luck, improve their karma, and grant them great fortune from their past deeds. He claimed that the meeting would need to be held many times and that it would demand more money each day. Depending on their financial situation and their trust in him, victims ‘ losses ranged from hundreds of ringgit to six digit numbers.

Following his arrest, authorities discovered that Mr. Suwatchai likewise had four additional arrest warrants for fraud related offenses issued by authorities in Chiang Mai, Nakhon Ratchasima, Min Buri, Samut Prakan, and Chiang Mai, which date from September 5, 2022 to January 1, 2024. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

According to Pol Gen Theeradej, the imprisonment is a part of an ongoing crackdown on all forms of attacks that have caused a lot of people’s suffering.

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Commentary: ‘Dropping out of school, refusing to leave home’ – social anxiety can be crippling

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IMPACT ON DAY LIVING

Due to the intense anxiety and avoidance of interpersonal interactions, social anxiety disorder can greatly impair daily functioning.

Routine behaviors that most people assume are a source of great stress For instance, being afraid to interact with others or be spotted by other guests can make buying food from hawker stalls frustrating.

In extreme cases, individuals may completely avoid eating or drinking in public places, as happened with one of my patients. She skipped lunchtime and recess immediately because she could hardly bear the perceived investigation.

Some people may experience almost silent in social settings as a result of overwhelming anxiety. Major effects can be had on one’s personal development, academic success, and overall quality of life from this level of social mitigation and the resulting isolation.

UNRAVELLING SOCIAL PHOBIA’S Creates

The causes of social anxiety disorder are varied, involving genetic, environmental, emotional, and increasingly recognised, online effects.

A major role is played by hereditary factors. Social anxiety disorder sufferers frequently have an active amygdala, a region of the brain that makes them more prone to social anxiety.

Social anxiety disorder is also influenced by environmental variables, such as lifestyle and personal experience. For instance, children who have protective or critical parents as young children and those who have been bullied may struggle to feel self-assured in social settings, which could increase their risk of developing social phobia.

People who are normally introverted or especially sensitive to criticism may also be more prone to this problem.

In today’s modern world, extensive usage of smartphones and social media is compound stress. Regular communication can lead to an overreliance on electronic communication, reducing face- to- face interactions and possibly weakening the individual’s interpersonal skills.

Also, constant exposure to idealised images of others ‘ lives does increase feelings of weakness and stress. Anxiety can be exacerbated by the pressure to regulate and be present constantly, especially in social settings.

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Why India’s household savings are at a 47-year-low

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Labourers push a handcart loaded with baskets of fish from a port in Mumbai on August 30, 2022AFP

Soutik Biswas

By Soutik Biswas
India editor

For years, India has been a country of savings. They frequently put away a sizable portion of their income at the expense of existing consumption for potential security.

However, everything is now glaringly wrong. According to recent statistics from the Reserve Bank of India, net household savings for India was at a 47-year lower. Household online savings are the full income and assets families have, like deposits, stocks and benefit, minus any money they owe, like loans and debts.

Savings shrank to 5.3 % of the gross domestic product ( GDP ) in the financial year 2023, down from 7.3 % in 2022. One analyst called this tumble “dramatic”.

In the same time, home bill has dramatically increased. The second-highest level since the 1970s was the monthly debts of 5.8 % of GDP.

As families increasingly rely on debts to energy consumption, their savings ultimately erode. The more they borrow, they dedicate more of their earnings to repaying debts, leaving less for benefits.

Nikhil Gupta, an analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, claims that non-mortgage loans account for a large part of India’s growing family debt. More than half of these mortgages are for agriculture and business purposes. ( An interesting aside: In 2022, non- mortgage debt in India matched Australia and Japan, and surpassed many other major nations, including the US and China. )

A woman watches an Ikea mobile display unit in Mumbai on November 26, 2019. - Ikea, which opened its first store in India in August 2018, is seeking to wow India's burgeoning middle class with its Nordic-cool furniture and fittings, as well as products suited to local tastes, and is aiming to open 25 outlets in the country by 2025.

AFP

Mr Gupta even found that while borrowing for usage- credit cards, consumer durables, weddings, health emergencies, for instance- makes up less than 20 % of total home loan, it was the fastest- growing section.

What does the pattern of small savings and high debt mean for India’s economy, which is the fifth-largest in the world? Would increased borrowing and spending signal potential optimism, or do they issue warnings about problems like declining incomes, inflation, and economic stress?

” There is some amount of customer trust. Some Indians have hopes for future revenue growth that will be sufficient. Or they simply want to live well straight now rather than consider what may happen in the future, according to Mr. Gupta.

” Is there a change in]the Indian ] thinking about spending]more]? Maybe”, he says, adding that it’s not obvious yet what is driving this.

What about taking out a loan when there is a financial crisis or need, usually during a crisis or economic pain? Mortgage defaults may be avoided quickly due to prolonged distress borrowing. On the other hand, if the creditors are doing their homework, why do they continue to contribute to uncreditable lenders in the midst of a financial issue?

Residential buildings in Mumbai, India, on Monday, Dec. 18, 2023. Wealthy Indians living abroad are snapping up luxury homes in the country, with the investment play driving an unprecedented boom in sales of top-end properties

EPA

A key problem, according to Mr Gupta, is the lack of granular detail in the official data on the borrowers. What types of jobs do they perform? How many people have gotten loans from? ( One borrower can take multiple loans. ) What purpose do they intend to pursue with the loans? What is their repayment history?

Some clues are available. The majority of household debt growth in the last ten years was driven by’credit widening’, an increase in the number of borrowers, according to Mr. Gupta and fellow economist Tanisha Ladha at Motilal Oswal, as opposed to higher loans per borrower or higher loans per borrower. It is preferable to have more people take out larger loans than it is for each borrower.

Similar to Nordic nations, Indian households have an estimated 12 % of their income used to service loans, according to the study. This ratio is higher than that of China, France, the UK, and the US, all of which have higher household debt levels. Higher interest rates and shorter loan terms in India contribute to the difference, which results in a relative higher DSR despite lower debt-to-income ratios.

In September, the finance ministry of India rebuffed concerns about reducing savings and increasing borrowings, claiming that people were profiting from low interest rates to finance purchases like cars, student loans, and homes.

Additionally, it stated that more people were taking out loans to purchase things like homes and cars, which is” not a sign of distress but of confidence in the future employment and income prospects.”

Zico Dasgupta and Srinivas Raghavendra of Azim Premji University, however, sound a note of caution. According to the two economists, the decline in savings and the rise in debt” spent concerns about debt repayment and financial fragility” in The Hindu.
Other G20 countries have the lowest per capita income, but economist Rathin Roy is concerned about the country’s growing dependence on borrowing. The government borrows to fund basic services and subsidies, while households borrow to consume, he noted in Business Standard. This reduces the already “declining flow of financial savings” and increases the cost of borrowing.

According to Mr. Gupta and Ms. Ladha, India’s financial or macroeconomic stability is not threatened by the current high level of borrowing in a year. However, if this trend persists, it may be questioned as to how long it will last.

In her new book Lilliput Land, Rama Bijapurkar, a business consultant, writes that” consumer India’s consumption is situated at the crossroads of high aspirations for a better life, woefully inadequate quality and quantity of public goods and amenities, and modest incomes which are also unstable.”

In other words, the Indian consumer is engaged in a skilled balancing act.

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Can TikTok’s owner afford to lose its killer app?

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A group of teens look at a photograph they took on a smartphone in Times Square in New York CityGetty Images
By Kelly Ng
BBC News

US lawmakers will vote this weekend on a second bill in as many months that corners TikTok’s Chinese owner ByteDance with a stark choice – sell its US business or be banned.

Fears that data about millions of Americans could land in China’s hands have driven Congressional efforts to split TikTok from the Beijing-based company.

TikTok has said ByteDance “is not an agent of China or any other country”. And ByteDance insists it’s not a Chinese firm, pointing to the many global investment firms that own 60% of it.

But the app’s extraordinary success in the US has made it yet another flashpoint between Washington and Beijing.

Some 170 million Americans spend at least an hour of their day swiping on TikTok. That includes about six in 10 teenagers, a fifth of whom say they are on it “almost constantly”, according to Pew Research Center. More than 40% of US users say it’s their regular source of news.

A ban on TikTok could be challenged as a violation of free speech. It’s also difficult to police and possibly unpalatable in an election year. While forcing ByteDance to sell the app is seemingly simpler, that option also faces obstacles.

For one, analysts say Beijing will try its best to scupper a sale. But who will buy TikTok’s US operations, which, by some estimates, could fetch up to $100bn (£80.2bn)?

And the biggest question of all: Would ByteDance sell its most successful app?

Tick tock

Founded in 2012 by Chinese entrepreneurs, ByteDance first hit the jackpot with short video app Douyin in China. A year later, it launched TikTok, an international version. TikTok was banned in China but gained a billion users in five years.

It is now run by a limited liability company based in Los Angeles and Singapore but is essentially owned by ByteDance. While its founders own only 20% of ByteDance, it’s the controlling stake in the company. About 60% is owned by institutional investors, including major US investment firms such as General Atlantic, Susquehanna and Sequoia Capital. The remaining 20% is owned by employees around the world. Three of its five board members are American.

TikTok content creators protest against a potential ban outside the US Capitol

Getty Images

But Beijing’s grip over private companies in recent years worries the US about how much control the Chinese Communist Party has over ByteDance, and the data it holds. These concerns are not unfounded. Last year, a former ByteDance employee alleged in a lawsuit that Beijing had accessed TikTok user data in 2018 to spy on pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong – ByteDance dismissed this as “baseless”.

The US has been cracking down on China’s massive footprint on its soil as intelligence officials increasingly warn of espionage, surveillance and hacks. In 2022, Washington banned the sale and import of communication devices from five Chinese companies, including Huawei and ZTE. Now, the suspicion has spread to infrastructure such as Chinese-made cranes that are common in US ports, including those used by the military.

Beijing has dismissed these concerns as American paranoia and has warned that a TikTok ban will “inevitably come back to bite the US”.

Since 2022, TikTok has been routing all US users’ data through Texas-based technology giant Oracle to address security concerns. TikTok has stressed US data will be ringfenced and stored on Oracle servers in the US.

TikTok’s Singaporean CEO Shou Zi Chew was grilled by Congress twice in less than a year, and downplayed the app’s connection – and his personal links – to Chinese authorities. His repeated reminders that he was Singaporean, and not Chinese, went viral. And he said after the House vote that TikTok “will continue to do all [they] can, including exercising [their] legal rights” to protect US users’ access to the app. TikTok pointed to his statement in response to the BBC’s queries.

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Despite ByteDance’s attempts to reassure Washington, the US House of Representatives voted in March to give ByteDance six months to sell TikTok to non-Chinese owners, or have the app blocked in the US. That bill is still pending Senate approval. On Saturday they are expected to vote again on the same measure – except this time it’s bundled with other bills that promise aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

The newer version gives ByteDance nine months to decide TikTok’s fate – if the Senate passes it and if the chances for a sale look promising, President Joe Biden can further extend the deadline by another 90 days. Mr Biden has already said he would sign it into law when it reaches his desk.

Putting a price on TikTok

Valuing TikTok for a sale is tricky.

As a privately-owned company, it does not release financial details, but reports estimate its US revenue stood between $16bn to $20bn in 2023, making up as much as 16% of ByteDance’s revenue.

“In a normal market, it won’t be hard to fetch a $100bn valuation. However, under the current political risks and lack of liquidity, the valuation would take a big hit if a transaction does happen,” said Li Jianggan, who runs Singapore-based venture capital firm Momentum Works.

In other words, it would be akin to a distress sale, a further blow for ByteDance’s bottom line.

Photo illustration of a teenager using TikTok on her mobile phone

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And arm-twisting ByteDance will not work, analysts say.

“It will just shut down [in the US] rather than make a few billion dollars,” said Ling Vey-Sern, an adviser for Asia technology at Swiss private bank Union Bancaire Privée.

A ban would still allow it to return “when circumstances change, while a sale means a more definite outcome”, Mr Li said.

The US wouldn’t be the first to block TikTok – India banned the app in 2020, citing security concerns. But TikTok survived that ban because the Indian market, which was then about as big as the US market is now, wasn’t as profitable, said Jayanth N Kolla, founder of technology advisory firm Convergence Catalyst.

The US is now TikTok’s largest market, accounting for about 17% of its total users, and its most lucrative. “If TikTok were to lose its US operations, it is not just losing the user base, but a large portion of its revenue pie. That’s an immense loss,” Mr Kolla said.

Who wants TikTok?

For one, not many companies can afford to buy TikTok. And those with deep enough pockets, such as Meta or Alphabet, could be stymied by anti-competition laws.

The other major obstacle is whether the deal will include TikTok’s so-called recommendation engine. The AI-driven secret sauce that feeds content to users is crucial to the app’s success.

When the US last tried to force a sale in 2020, ByteDance said the addictive algorithm, which it owns, was not on the table. But selling TikTok without the algorithm would neither allay Washington’s concerns nor attract buyers.

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The algorithm is the “most contentious” part of any deal, Mr Li said. “Any potential acquirer just buying TikTok’s user base and content will probably be looking for a heavy discount.”

And replicating it is hard because analysts say companies like that operate in China are far better at targeting users. They have a huge market to tap into, which means AI models have more information and practice to get better. Companies can also mine more data because regulation is weak and the Community Party itself runs a sophisticated surveillance state.

A sale also leaves open the question of how a US-owned TikTok interacts with the app elsewhere. “Imagine if TikTok [users from outside the US] want to send TikToks to the US,” said Anupam Chander, a law professor specialising in global tech regulation at Georgetown Law.

“How do we know that isn’t Chinese propaganda? Do we now have to prevent foreign accounts from being seen by Americans? That begins to sound a lot more like what China did a quarter-century ago.”

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Sydney mall attack: Confronting pro-Kremlin troll on false claims Jewish student was killer

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In: Asia
Simeon Boikov, known online as Aussie Cossack, raising first in front of Russian flagAussie Cossack
By Marianna Spring
Propaganda and social media editor

” I always falsely suggested something,” Simeon Boikov tells me.

He posted unfounded rumors that a 20-year-old Hebrew university student was the one who fatally stabbed and killed five people and one man in Sydney under the alter self” Aussie Cossack.”

On X, he stated,” Unverified reports identify the Bondi perpetrator as Benjamin Cohen. Cohen? Actually? And to believe that so many observers first tried to blame Muslims. “

The real attacker, shot dead by authorities, was later identified as Joel Cauchi, 40. According to the government, his steps were most likely to do with his mental state.

The false allegations that Mr. Boikov amplified had already been made by hundreds of thousands of people on X and Telegram within days of his posting on X, and one federal news outlet also repeated them.

Because I want to know how his articles sparked a media frenzy, with serious consequences for Mr. Cohen, who has described his agony over being accused of an attack he had nothing to do, I tracked him down.

Mr. Boikov is speaking to me from the Australian consul where he fled more than a year earlier after an arrest warrant was issued for an alleged abuse. Vladimir Putin, a pro-Kremlin social internet character, was granted Russian membership last year and has since requested political asylum in Russia.

The brand Benjamin Cohen was not mentioned by him as the first time. It appeared to have come from a small account that shared almost entirely anti-Israel information.

One of the current methods for spreading propaganda is this.

According to Marc Owen-Jones, a specialist in online disinformation, “it’s less obvious and dubious than if a well-known and influential partisan account was to tweet it first.”

” Then more organized accounts can apply this’seeded’ tale as if it’s a legitimate audio music, and claim they are just’reporting’ what’s being said online. “

Another more extensive records suggested that the attack had some connection to Israel or Gaza before Aussie Cossack’s comments on X.

However, those were the first to go viral with Mr. Cohen’s brand.

That’s because he purchased a blue tick, which placed his content before other users and appeared higher up people’s feeds, even those who did n’t follow him.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and NSW Premier Chris Minns (3rd and 4th from left) were among those laying flowers

Getty Images

The first article racked up more than 400,000 views, according to X’s personal data- before authorities identified the attacker as Cauchi, no Benjamin Cohen. Following that, Aussie Cossack posted a similar picture to the one that shows the real perpetrator, Cauchi, standing next to a picture of Mr. Cohen in a subsequent post on X.

On Telegram, he even posted a screengrab of Mr Cohen’s LinkedIn site, revealing where he worked and studied.

However, Mr. Boikov, who spoke to me, emphasizes the skepticism in his tweet, saying that he was the” first large platform to inform this is unconfirmed.”

He suggests that” the hundreds of thousands of people who saw my content” pointed out the unverified nature of the state.

However, many people ‘ website responses to his posts appear to have viewed it in a different way and assumed Mr. Cohen was the source of the attack.

I questioned Mr. Boikov about how his posts had allegedly fabricated hundreds of thousands of lies, seriously harming the pupil at its heart. This occurred as people were grieving for loved people who were killed in the attack, and still are.

” Sorry, love, you’re doing that right now,” he said. You’re talking about the speculating of a phony state, and you’re writing a piece about it. “

Communicate in profit

Whether or not it is true that Mr. Boikov’s is one of the hundreds of very effective X accounts that now routinely share content in this manner.

Users can acquire a” share of the revenue” generated by advertising from their posts under X’s new rules, since Elon Musk purchased the social media business.

Aussie Cossack’s messages were taken up and recirculated by dozens of other records, some of whom had a history of spreading false information. Some people frequently post articles that disparage Israel or discuss the Gaza War.

Immediately, these false charges spread to various social media platforms.

When I was looking through the articles related to the murdering on Saturday night, TikTok suggested that I hunt for” Benjamin Cohen” on several films of the attack.

When I looked through the remarks, I discovered they were rife with his name before the authorities had established the attacker’s true personality.

” The suspect’s title is Benjamin Cohen IDF Soldier,” one user wrote. Their consideration had no articles, and no report picture. I sent a text. No answer.

” Shame he’s a Jew right? Why do n’t the media outlets label him? Another user posted a picture of persons running through the mall. When I messaged this one to inquire about its responses, it blocked me.

Repeated by media network

Where these accounts are based ca n’t be definitively confirmed. They consistently post controversial remarks and lack any identifying features that resemble authentic profiles.

The BBC has yet to respond to the BBC’s requests for comment. X, Telegram, and TikTok have not yet responded.

Worryingly, the debate was picked up by American media shop 7News, which named Benjamin Cohen as the “40-year-old lone wolf intruder”. The negative aspects of their document added to the fire online.

7News after retracted the statement and apologised, attributing it to “human problem”.

However, by this point, racist threats were being made toward Benjamin Cohen, who had described the incident as being “highly disconcerting and unsatisfactory to myself and my household.” He has expressed surprise that perhaps a major media outlet had identified him despite being constantly falsely accused on social advertising.

His father Mark Cohen defended his brother on X while the social media panic was taking place. He requested New South Wales Police to reveal the identity of the intruder, saying that “providing false information that it was my brother would cause more harm.”

Post on X by Mark Cohen reading: "Hey @nswpolice you need to release the name of the Bondi junction attacker before this nonsense claiming it was my son causes more harm."

X

In parallel, misleading statements were circulating that the intruder was Muslim. These were shared by well-known political figures and reporters on X with hundreds of thousands of supporters from the UK to the US.

The murder were “another terror assault by another Islamist terrorist,” according to American journalist and broadcaster Julia Hartley-Brewer, and TV presenter Rachel Riley referred to them as” a Global Intifada.” Eventually, they both retracted their content.

Hartley-Brewer posted that she had been “incorrect” and that the Sydney massacre “was not an Islamist terror attack”, while Riley said she was” sorry” if her message had been “misunderstood”.

Additionally, numerous Twitter accounts make false claims about the attacker’s religion. I messaged several of them- but they have n’t responded.

New South Wales Police have suggested the actual attacker, Cauchi, consciously targeted females- who make up five out of six of the patients.

Numerous online forums dedicated to the incels, a culture that defines themselves as incapable of getting a physical partner despite desire, have praised Cauchi as one of their own for the assault.

There is currently, however, no concrete proof that Cauchi is directly involved in these virtual activities. When questioned about Cauchi’s potential use of force against women, his father responded that his brother had “wanted a girl” and that he had” no social skills and was frustrated out of his mind.”

This kind of societal media frenzy, where misinformation is incredibly prevalent, is growing in frequency as problems in the real world occur.

This dangerous rumor mill is seriously harming the people, companions, and innocent bystanders who have been killed.

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