To Donald Trump, From Han Feizi – Asia Times

Come, you masters of war, you that build the big guns

You that build the death planes, you that build all the bombs

You that hide behind walls, you that hide behind desks

I just want you to know I can see through your masks

– Bob Dylan

The historical Han Feizi of the second century BCE was China’s greatest Legalist scholar, whose ideas the Qin Emperor used to consolidate the Chinese state for the first time. Westerners could do worse than think of Han Feizi as China’s Niccolo Machiavelli. The similarities are uncanny despite a separation of 1,700 years and 8,000 kilometers.

Han Feizi has been making a comeback, becoming perhaps the third most discussed of China’s ancient sages and philosophers – right behind Confucius and Sun Tzu. President Xi is surely responsible, invoking Han Feizi in speeches, “When those who uphold the law are strong, the state is strong. When they are weak, the state is weak.”

Xi’s unyielding anti-corruption campaign draws from legalist tradition, wielding power through the punishment lever. But enough ink has been spilled on Han Feizi and the Legalists’ influence on Xi’s China.

Yours truly is more interested in what Han Feizi makes of the second coming of Donald Trump, what advice he would give the president-elect and what pitfalls he sees arrayed before America’s populist and perhaps authoritarian sovereign.

For mysterious reasons, Asia Times has the ability to channel history’s spirit world, conjuring the ghosts of Oswald Spengler and Cardinal Richelieu. It is now time that yours truly, after cosplaying the Legalist scholar for a year, does the esoteric seance and formally calls forth the Ghost of Han Feizi.     

“Stay back, all of you. I’ve come for one person and one person only,” I yelled through the portal, Pingduoduo electric mosquito swatter in hand, “Not you Confucius, nor you, Xunzi – a gentleman scholar Donald J Trump is not. And Mozi… go away, you’re totally useless. Maybe you can go comfort Kamala.”

“Y-y-you called for me?” Han Feizi said, as his apparition appeared behind the other sages, “A-a-after all these y-y-years? A-a-a-re m-m-m-my s-s-services r-r-r-required?”

“It’s you,” I said, “It’s really you! Yes, come, come… I’ve prepared a writing desk with silk parchment, brushes and ink. Don’t talk. I know your stammer gets bad when you’re nervous. Just write. We will take a picture of the manuscript and run it through Baidu translate when you’re finished…

“Oh, taking a picture is when you… ummm… and Baidu translate is… uhhh… never mind… sit down… relax. Let me tell you what has happened in the past 2,200 years. Let me tell you about a new empire called the United States of America. And let me tell you about the rise to power of its latest emperor – the strange, strange tale of Donald J Trump…”

BAIDU TRANSLATION OF HAN FEIZI’S MANUSCRIPT   

This new empire – this United States of America – has been expanding for almost 250 years. It’s not so new at all. Forgive me for being impressed; if I recall correctly, the Qin Emperor dispatched me to the spirit world before I had a chance to witness the application of my life’s work.

Most impressive about this Empire of the United States of America is that it has lasted 250 years without an emperor like Donald J Trump. The lands of the United States of America are truly blessed. When the land is bountiful and the people are few, husbands do not have to till the fields for the seeds of grass and the fruit of trees were enough for people to eat.

And wives do not have to weave for the skins of animals and birds provided sufficient clothing. There is an abundance of goods and so no one quarreled. Therefore no rich rewards were doled out. No harsh punishments were administered and yet the people themselves were orderly.

In my time, the Sinic-lands were already teaming with people and kingdoms and warlords. No one regarded five sons as a large number and these five sons in turn had five sons each so that before the grandfather has died, he has 25 grandchildren.

Hence the number of people increased, goods grew scarce and men had to struggle and slave for immediate living. Therefore they fell to quarreling and though rewards were doubled and punishments were piled on, they could not be prevented from growing disorderly.

This Empire of the United States of America had been feasting on the bounty of expansion – westward across a continent, into the ocean and right up against the Qin Empire’s shores (which 2,200 years later is now called the People’s Republic of Qin… not too shabby of me, if I do say so myself).

Across its eastern ocean, the Empire of the United States of America controls the geriatric continent of its origins and the lands from which its sacred texts emerged. But this empire controls these regions shabbily.

Greed and weakness have entangled the empire in unnecessary military conflict, draining resources and enticing challengers. Tianxia – all under heaven – is not at peace (Tianxia is a giant round ball? I can’t wait to tell Sun Tzu… it will blow his mind).

Internally, the Empire of the United States of America is beset with disorder. This empire is governed in the most peculiar way, with levers of power surrendered to venal merchants. Impoverished barbarians are entering the empire through unguarded borders.

Prices of goods have surged. Crime and squalor have swallowed up large swathes of once-great cities. The people are angry and the distractions of sports ball, undressed girls, moving paintings, trinkets, games of chance and soothing medicines are not enough to prevent disorder and quarrelling.

On the surface, this Donald J Trump, this crass merchant, this boastful cretin, this blathering buffoon, appears to be wholly incapable of rising to power. And yet here he is.

A sage ruler waits empty and still and must not reveal his desires, for if he reveals his desires, his ministers will put on the mask that pleases him. He must not reveal his will for if he does so, his ministers will show a different face.

From a place of darkness, the sage ruler observes the defects of others; see but does not appear to see; listen but does not appear to listen; know, but does not let it be known that he knows.

Emperor Donald J Trump appears to violate all of these maxims. And yet, he has not. As much as this emperor talks, the quantity and volume of his words mask a loud silence. He has said everything and revealed nothing. No one knows what he is plotting, putting all his ministers, all his subjects and all rulers of foreign lands on edge.

The emperor’s enemies are convinced that he is capable of every sort of bestial horror. The emperor’s friends believe he is just short of divine, capable of making the fallen empire great again. The emperor’s foreign adversaries vacillate between dismissing his buffoonery and sweating over the chaos he might unleash. The emperor’s ministers supplicate themselves before him, hoping to be rewarded with high office and fearing the punishment of his immortal words, “You’re fired!”

Emperor Donald J Trump is still learning. After the throne was wrested away by a lesser man, he spent four years in the wilderness contemplating his missteps. He had made many mistakes, chief among them was appointing ministers with hidden agendas with designs on the levers of power.

Reclaiming the throne from the lesser man and his band of imbeciles was a trivial feat. Avoiding past mistakes will be the greater challenge. Tigers prowl the palace halls, coveting the throne.

That is my diagnosis of the maladies afflicting the Empire of the United States of America. My prescription will be addressed directly to the emperor himself.

Your majesty, Emperor Donald J. Trump:

You have done well reclaiming the throne. But now the hard work begins. You are now surrounded by courtiers and supplicants, each with capabilities, incompetencies and agendas. When appointing ministers, you should:

  1. Assign one man to each office and do not let men talk to each other and then all will do their utmost.
  2. Hide your tracks, conceal your sources so that your subordinates cannot trace the springs of your action.
  3. Discard wisdom, forebear ability so that your subordinates cannot guess what you are about.
  4. Stick to your objectives and examine their results to see how they match.
  5. Take hold of the handles of government carefully and grip them tightly. Destroy all hope and smash all intention of wresting them from you. Allow no men to covet them.

If you do not guard the door, if you do not make fast the gate, then tigers will lurk there. Ministers like Marco Rubio, Peter Hegseth, Mike Waltz and Matt Gaetz are easily tamed. Rewards and punishments will collar and chain these tiger cubs and they should eat from your hand.

More dangerous are the tigers who believe themselves emperor makers – Miriam Adelson, Tim Mellon, Linda McMahon and one very wealthy, very capable and very ambitious Elon Musk. Concern yourself not with geriatric cases like Adelson, Mellon and McMahon; their interests – money and clan – are pedestrian and transparent. But Elon Musk, this merchant, this self-promoter, this manufacturer of useless trivia, must be brought to heel post haste.   

Minister Elon Musk is a man of celestial talent and with that comes commensurate ambition. Given the misfortune of his birth, he has no claim on the throne. Unfortunately, for a man of his caliber, to not covet the levers of power is impossible. If you think you have tamed him by shunting him off to write reports in a made-up ministry, make sure that is exactly what you have done.

Sinecures and made-up ministries will not placate this man. He has already done an end run around the palace with the naming of this ministry – DOGE (the Department of Government Efficiency) – putting his personal brand on your government department. Two roosters cannot occupy the same henhouse and you have invited this rooster in.

Given the vast resources at his disposal, Minister Elon Musk will attempt to apply the two levers of power on you, rewarding you and punishing you to do his bidding. That is what a sovereign must suffer when power has been surrendered to merchants. For guidance, look across the ocean to the People’s Republic of Qin. The sovereign showed unruly merchants their place and order now permeates his empire.    

If the two levers of power – reward and punishment – cannot subjugate merchants, these vermin will infiltrate the state and drain it of vitality. You must restrain these ministers with clear laws or risk rending asunder the state as ministries vie for power. If you cannot make the law clear and use it to restrain the authority of the high ministers, then you will have no means to win the confidence of the people at large.

If you discard the law and instead attempt to use some of your ministers to control others, then those who love each other will band together in groups for mutual praise, and those who hate each other will form cliques for mutual slander. With praise and slander striving to shout each other down, you will become bewildered and confused.

All under heaven do not know what your plans are for Ukraine, Israel, Iran, the People’s Republic of Qin, the surging price of goods, rising government debt, illegal barbarians, trade policy, industrial policy and your enemies deep within the bureaucracy.

It is vital that your ministers do not know either and merely implement what they have promised for the solutions to these problems are difficult and contradictory – some problems and some ministers must be sacrificed for others. It is your burden to ascertain the intentions and desires of ministers and place them in their positions ignorant of your ultimate designs.

Undertakings succeed through secrecy but fail through being found out. If you have not yet divulged your plans but in your discussions a minister deduces your intent, then he must be ruthlessly dispatched. If you are ostensibly seeking one thing but actually attempting to accomplish something quite different, you must destroy ministers who catch wind of your plans.

For now, I commend you for your wily ability to reveal nothing even while saying everything. Nobody can pin down what you believe, perhaps not even yourself. You promised to end the European war on day one of your coronation but have just appointed ministers who couldn’t be less willing to do so.

You have wage laborers in your corner and yet merchants and money lenders are rubbing their hands together. You threaten commercial war with the People’s Republic of Qin and yet you invite their magic chariot makers into your empire. These are all excellent moves. Keep your options open. Let no minister in your court or the court of your adversaries divine your intentions, for if they do, they will conspire to thwart you.

The portal to the spirit world is open for only so long and I will soon have to return. I cannot leave you without specifically addressing the Empire of People’s Republic of Qin. After a short blip in history, the descendant of Qin is returning to its role as the celestial center of civilization.

The Empire of the United States of America is thus careening towards confrontation with the People’s Republic of Qin (I can’t wait to tell Sun Tzu about everybody’s flashy weapons… it will blow his mind). Expansion in Tianxia is now treacherous as powerful empires and their vassals butt up against each other (Tianxia is one giant round ball? That will never stop being funny :D).

The disorder you see in the Empire of the United States of America is the result of thwarted expansion, squandering lives and treasure in far-off lands. The neglected home front fueled your rise to power and, with your permission, the necessity of Legalist government.

The Sinic lands reached carrying capacity in my lifetime and the subsequent Qin Empires have had 2,000 years of practice implementing Legalism. Their current emperor is well-schooled in the dark arts while you are learning on the fly and relying on instinct, excellent as they may be. What the emperor of the People’s Republic of Qin has but you lack is methodical discipline. He knows what he wants and how he will get there even if we do not. Do you know what you want?

With religious certainty, your tiger cub ministers are eager to confront the Empire of the People’s Republic Qin – which has been sharpening swords, making projectile arrows, building war junks and invisible flying machines. They have reorganized their craftsmen and traders to prepare for commercial war. Has the Empire of the United States of America adequately prepared for military or commercial conflict with the People’s Republic of Qin?

The portal is closing and I must bid you farewell. I wish you good fortune in you political endeavors and hope the Empire of the United States of America can adopt a Legalist government and last as long as the Empire of Qin.

Until we meet again…

Sincerely,

Han Feizi        

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Udon Thani polls a litmus test for Pheu Thai

Thaksin Shinawatra campaigns for votes in Udon Thani on Nov 14. (Photo: Pheu Thai Party)
On November 14, Thaksin Shinawatra strategies for seats in Udon Thani. ( Photo: Pheu Thai Party )

Political observers predict that the party’s political strength and popularity will be tested in Udon Thani’s upcoming Provincial Administrative Organization ( PAO ) chairman election in 2027 as a result of the upcoming provincial election.

Both parties are working with political powerhouses to support their candidates ‘ promotion efforts in order to secure a win in the election.

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the parents of prime minister and Pheu Thai head Paetongtarn Shinawatra, helped Pheu Thai’s member, Sarawut Petchpanomporn, in a campaign rally in Udon Thani on Nov 13–14. He is commonly believed to be Pheu Thai’s de facto leader.

Addressing about 5, 000 individuals during a campaign rally in Udon Thani’s Muang area on Nov 14, Thaksin urged people to vote for Pheu Thai’s member.

Thaksin promised to give up anything short of a disaster triumph, as he promised to.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, Thaksin is expected to attend demonstrations in Surin.

Pheu Thai’s dominance in Udon Thani is being reaffirmed by some experts.

In next week’s vote, the party, which often secures a clear sweep of Udon Thani– its democratic stronghold– was defeated in three out of 10 constituencies. The Thai Sang Thai Party won two seats, while the MFP won one.

Former Move Forward Party ( MFP ) leader Pita Limjaroenrat, who flew back from the US to support Kanisorn Khurirang’s campaign for the Udon Thani seat, has also backed the PP.

Pita Limjaroenrat is a Sunday campaigner for the Women's Party in Udon Thani. ( Photo: People's Party )

Pita Limjaroenrat is a Sunday campaigner for the Women’s Party in Udon Thani. ( Photo: People’s Party )

The PP was created after the MFP was disbanded in an effort to overthrow the democratic king.

Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, president of the Progressive Movement, which has links with the MFP and the PP, even assisted PP’s battle in Udon Thani.

In order to regain its democratic foothold in the province after losing some local elections, the PP wants to win.

After Wichian Khaokham, the incumbent, resigned only two months before his term-ending, citing health factors, the Udon Thani PAO main ballot was held.

In Surin, the vote of the PAO chairman will take place on November 23, while in Udon Thani, the elections may be held on November 24. The rest of the country, however, does hold their PAO vote on Feb 1 following time, as their incumbent ‘ career does not stop until Dec 19. Applications may be accepted starting on December 23 through December 27.

27 different provinces does not hold their provincial election in February due to their elected officials ‘ resigning before their terms end, leading to the need to find a replacement, or are currently preparing to do so.

Waning recognition

Prathuang Muang-on, a professor at Ubon Ratchathani University’s social research department, claimed Thaksin needed to support Pheu Thai’s campaign there to combat the party’s waning popularity as a result of its mediocre policies.

” Unlike Thaksin’s procedures, such as the general care system, and the Village Fund, which were popular with the public, Paetongtarn administration’s plans have so far failed to impress”, Mr Prathuang said.

He added the president’s 10, 000-baht handout plan, which was launched in September, just benefited vulnerable parties.

The second step of the 10, 000-baht money flyer, according to Somchai Pornrattanacharoen, chairman of the Thai Wholesale and Retail Trade Association, did not significantly boost the economy because many consumers chose to use the money to pay off debts rather than to use it.

In regional elections, Mr. Prathuang said the Bhumjaithai Party will also face fierce opposition from Pheu Thai.

Bhumjaithai is alleged to be quietly supporting Pheu Thai’s competitors, even though it did not field individuals to challenge the PAO votes in some provinces, according to Mr. Prathuang.

In specific, Bhumjaithai wants to defeat Kalptinan individuals in the Ubon Ratchathani PAO key election on December 22. With close ties to Pheu Thai, the Kalptinan community is a main strength player in the state. One of the community members, Kriang Kalptinan, was a former assistant Pheu Thai head.

Red-shirts ‘ investment

The Pheu Thai and the PP in Udon Thani fight is a precursor to their future collision in the 2027 public election, according to Olarn Thinbangtieo, a professor in political science at Burapha University in Chon Buri.

” Udon Thani is the money of the red-shirt action, which is tied with Pheu Thai, but Thaksin had to move ahead and restate his relations with the red-shirts”, Mr Olarn said.

A triumph in the PAO chief election in Udon Thani will give Pheu Thai a chance to regain its hold on power in various significant Northeast Asian provinces, such as Ubon Ratchathani, he added, adding that Thaksin is also attempting to bolster ties with political clans in some provinces to win their support for candidates.

While Bhumjaithai is determined to win regional elections, Mr. Olarn said that they must work together to prevent the PP from taking over the country.

After the 2027 general election, both parties may need to approach a power-sharing agreement, according to Mr. Olarn. Just Thaksin has the experience to do so.

” Also, Thaksin’s visit to Udon Thani reassured the red-shirts they will not be left behind and will be looked after. Thaksin may be asked to support efforts for PAO votes in different regions if Pheu Thai wins the Udon Thani key election, according to Mr. Olarn.

Thaksin is known as the” spiritual head.”

The red-shirt president and member of the Pheu Thai list, Korkaew Pikulthong, praised Thaksin’s decision to support the Pheu Thai member for his strategy in Udon Thani as evidence of his close ties with locals.

” His attend demonstrated the importance of the neighborhood’s people. According to Mr. Korkaew, it also demonstrated Pheu Thai’s ability to guide the county ahead because it has the potential for more growth and development.

Thaksin is regarded as the moral head of Pheu Thai and the Red-Shirts. With his aid in the battle, Pheu Thai’s opportunity of battle is zero. He predicted that his followers would participate in the poll in large quantities.

Keeping hands crossed

Pol Maj Gen Supisarn Bhakdinarinath, a deputy head of the PP, said it was sensible that Thaksin assisted in the Pheu Thai’s PAO strategy because Ms Paetongtarn, his girl, has much experience in elections.

Pheu Thai and the PP are competing for the top spot in the PAO key ballot, according to Pol Maj Gen Supisarn, but the PP is keeping its hopes crossed that the study’s outcome may be favorable.

” Pheu Thai could lose in the upcoming general election if it falls short of the PAO key surveys.” The group can begin working toward establishing a solid social foothold in the Northeast, he said, if the PP wins the PAO main poll.

Parit Wacharasindhu, a PP record MP, said he was not surprised by Thaksin’s walk to help a Pheu Thai member battle in the ballot, given his relationships with the ruling party.

” But, we are unfazed by the walk. We are working hard to provide our laws in a way that works for the people, he said.

Prathuang: Policiesfailed to impress

Prathuang: Policie sfailed to please

Olarn: Bhumjaithaidetermined to win

Olarn: Bhumjaithai determined to win

Korkaew: Thaksin'close to the people'

Korkaew: Thaksin ‘ close to the persons ‘

Supisarn: Pheu Thaihas slight advantage

Supisarn: Pheu Thai has little benefits

Parit: Unmoved byThaksin's walk

Parit: Unmoved byThaksin’s walk

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China megaport paves way into Latin America as wary US looks on

Reuters A crane moves a container at the new megaport being built by China's state-owned Cosco Shipping in Chancay, PeruReuters

China has really taken significant action to strengthen its position in Latin America as the world waits to see how Donald Trump’s returning will shake relations with Beijing.

Trump won the US presidential poll with tariffs as high as 60 % on Chinese-made items. Farther north, though, a new China-backed megaport has the potential to create complete new trade routes that will pass North America completely.

This year saw the opening of the Chancay interface on the Peruvian coast by President Xi Jinping himself, a sign of how seriously China views the situation.

For the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation Forum ( APEC ) annual meeting, Xi was in Peru. However, Chancay and what it says about China’s growing confidence in a place that the US has usually seen as its sphere of influence were all in the public’s minds.

Washington is now paying the price for decades of disregard for its neighbors and their needs, as experienced spectators may have predicted.

” The US has been excluded from Latin America for so much, and China has moved in thus quickly,” says senior fellow at the Washington Peterson Institute for International Economics, Monica de Bolle.

She tells the BBC,” You have the neighborhood of America engaging immediately with China.” ” That’s going to be problematic”.

Reuters A person works near stacked containers at the new megaport being built by China's state-owned Cosco Shipping in Chancay, PeruReuters

Even before it opened, the$ 3.5bn ( £2.75bn ) project, masterminded by China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping, had already turned a once-sleepy Peruvian fishing town into a logistical powerhouse set to transform the country’s economy.

China’s national Communist Party paper, the People’s Daily, called it” a justification of China-Peru win-win co-operation”.

Peru’s President Dina Boluarte was equally passionate, describing the megaport as a “nerve center” that would provide” a point of connection to access the giant Asian business”.

The effects extend far beyond the riches of one little Peruvian country. When Chancay is fully operational, items entering Shanghai and other Eastern ports are anticipated to pass through it from Chile, Ecuador, Colombia, and actually Brazil.

China currently has extensive appetite for the country’s exports, including Portuguese soybeans and Chilean copper. This new harbor will now be able to handle larger ships and shorten the duration of delivery by 35 to 23 nights.

Nevertheless, the new interface may favour goods as well as exports. Chile and Brazil have eliminated tax exemptions for specific clients on low-value foreign purchases as evidence increases that an flow of cheap Chinese goods purchased online may be affecting local market.

Reuters A harvester unloads soybeans into a truck at a farm during a record soybean harvest season in Não-Me-Toque, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, 3 April 2024Reuters

As nerve US defense hawks have pointed out, if Chancay can provide ultra-large box vessels, it can also control Chinese ships.

Gen. Laura Richardson, who recently retired as the head of US Southern Command, which covers Latin America and the Caribbean, has issued the most severe instructions.

She has accused China of “playing the’ much game’ with its development of dual-use sites and facilities throughout the region”, adding that those sites may offer as “points of potential multi-domain access for the]People’s Liberation Army ] and strategic maritime chokepoints”.

Reuters A member of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy stands guard on the Shijiazhuang, a Type 051C guided-missile destroyer, as the Navy opens warships for public viewing to mark its upcoming 75th founding anniversary, at the port in Qingdao, Shandong province, China 20 April 2024Reuters

Even if that prospect never materialises, there is a strong perception that the US is losing ground in Latin America as China forges ahead with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Joe Biden, the incoming US senator, made his initial and final trip to South America during his four-year word, and he was one of the officials at the Apec conference. He reportedly shaved a smaller amount than China’s Xi, according to internet observers.

The London School of Economics ‘ Global South Unit’s Director, Prof. L. Varo Méndez, points out that Xi was often visiting the area and cultivating good relationships there.

China just needs to be a little bit better to get through the doorway, he claims because the US has set the bar so low.

The BRI targets Latin America, of training, as well as other regions of the world. Since 2023, China’s extraordinary infrastructure splurge has pumped money into roughly 150 countries globally.

Some projects are still unfinished, and many developing nations that signed up for Beijing’s money have ended up in debt as a result.

Perhaps so, left-wing and right-wing governments everywhere have cast aside their first concerns of China, because” their passions are aligned” with those of Beijing, says the Peterson Institute’s Ms de Bolle:” They have lowered their shield out of sheer necessity”.

Reuters People walk at the venue of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (Apec) summit in Lima, PeruReuters

Given that Beijing has now “established a pretty strong grip” in the region at a time when President-elect Trump wants to “rein in” China, Ms de Bolle claims that this turn of events is a warning to US interests.

She adds that most nations want to stay on the right part of both great power, and that” we will eventually start to see the US putting stress on Latin America.”

The place is told that it has no choice but to be forced, which would be very foolish.

Due to the diplomatic free trade agreements that Trump may try to renegotiate or even renounce, South American nations like Peru, Chile, and Colombia would be under pressure in the future.

They will closely watch the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement ( USMCA ), which will be reviewed in July 2026 but will be the subject of negotiations in 2025.

Whatever happens, Prof Méndez of the London feels that the place needs more co-operation.

” It should n’t be that all roads lead to Beijing or to Washington. He says Latin America needs a clear local strategy and needs a more tactical approach, not to mention the difficulty of getting 33 nations to agree on a common strategy.

Eric Farnsworth, vice-president at the Washington-based Council of the Americas, feels that there is still much kindness towards the US in Latin America, but the country’s “massive wants” are not being met by its northern ally.

According to him,” the US needs to up its activity in the region because individuals would choose it if there was a viable alternative to China.”

He sees some trust from the incoming Trump presidency, particularly with Marco Rubio’s appointment as secretary of state, unlike many others.

Rubio claims that there is a real need to make economic connections with the Western Hemisphere in a way that has n’t been done in a while.

However, Latin America has historically been seen as a largely illegal immigration and illegal drugs for subsequent US presidents. There is little evidence that the US will change its mind anytime soon, especially given that Trump is so fixated on ideas to arrest record numbers of immigrants.

Latin America is gearing up for a slippery four decades, just like the rest of the world, and it is vulnerable if US and Chinese trade negotiations break out.

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Minimum wage to ‘hit B400 as NY gift’

As a New Year’s Day present for employees, the Labour Ministry wants to raise the everyday wage to 400 ringgit per person on January 1.

According to a supply at the Ministry of Labour, details have been made about the government’s plans that have increased the minimum daily income to 400 baht throughout the country.

According to the cause, the department plans to put this strategy into action starting January 1. Establishing a new bilateral income section to remove the existing one has been decided in the running procedure.

On Tuesday, the government will make a proposal to the case for two new authorities representatives.

One of them will reflect the Ministry of Finance, replacing a previous Bank of Thailand professional.

If the government approves the proposed members, the new committee will join its first meet, possibly in December, to finalise details based on recommendations from the municipal compensation committee.

The goal is to bring the proposed date’s implementation of the new minimal income to its conclusion.

The labor secretary, according to the cause, has already reviewed the information and is expected to present them to the cupboard by the start of the year.

He added that there might not be a consensus at the organization’s first meeting in December. Therefore, a second conference is anticipated to result in a choice being reached by the month’s end.

According to the Finance Ministry, assistant permanent secretary Akkaruth Sandhyananda may get nominated as the agency’s agent.

The director-general of the Department of Labour Protection and Welfare will also be chosen to serve on the commission along with representatives from the employee and employer businesses.

The labor minister has strict control over the situation to ensure compliance with all applicable laws, so this plan is expected to go forward without issue, according to the cause.

While the new wage will apply nationwide, exceptions will be made for small and medium-sized ( SME) businesses which will be given a one-year adjustment period, said the source.

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra stated in a statement on Thursday that the Pheu Thai-led government wants to reduce the country’s debt, raise the minimum daily salary to 400 baht, increase it to 700 baht, and increase the maximum monthly salary from 1500 to 25, 000 baht.

That will occur under the present state, he said.

According to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Phumtham Wechayachai, the prime minister’s decision to implement the 400 ringgit stage before the year’s end is dependent on the president.

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All the reasons Trump should fire the Fed’s Powell – Asia Times

October’s jobs report helps clarify Donald Trump’s disaster electoral victory. For the first time since the post-Covid treatment, secret payments decreased.

American families, especially lower-income households, were crushed by inflation rates twice the officially reported levels. Nowadays, jobs are drying up. Standard readouts indicate that the economy is much worse than expected.

By awarding billion in so-called signal checks after the US market had now begun to recover from the 2020 Covid crisis, Biden set the worst inflation rate since the 1970s and probably since the US Civil War.

The Federal Reserve poured oil on the fire after pretending inflation was a problem for a year before jacked up interest charges. It should soon lower the federal funds rate by 2 percentage points, easing the burden on communities and the expenditure.

Graphic: Asia Times

Government statisticians claim that higher private use is to blame for the US economy’s continued expansion, but investment in both businesses and homes has remained stagnant. The American public did n’t buy the official version, because it just is n’t so.

Graphic: Asia Times

Somehow, Americans have managed to increase “real personal consumption expenditures” ( the calculation of consumption in the gross national product series ) without buying anything.

True financial profits, as reported by the Census Bureau, have been falling since 2021, while private consumption keeps rising. The actual retail sales report’s and the private consumption estimate’s are the largest ever gap ever found.

The US market is much weaker than federal researchers state, which is the most likely reason and one that corresponds to the experience of most American families. Private consumption is significantly lower and inflation-adjusted use is significantly higher.

So, Trump may now be living in a crisis as a result of the Biden administration. And it is continually being given by the Federal Reserve.

The current prices is NOT the result of excessive credit generation, as opposed to the prices of the 1970s. According to the Bank for International Settlements, which releases weekly data through March 2024, the US personal sector’s complete record has decreased over the past few years.

Biden’s campaign to pay voters with massive subsidies contributed to this inflation.

Graphic: Asia Times

When the cost of higher interest payments to American homes is added in, Lawrence Summers, the Treasury Secretary for Barack Obama and Lawrence Summers, the former president of Harvard University, calculated prices at 18 % in 2022. It still rises to 8 % today.

Graphic: Asia Times

Credit card debt outstanding exploded after Covid, rising from about$ 800 billion to nearly$ 1.1 trillion. Higher interest rates, however, were the actual kick. Between 2021 and 2023, the average interest rate on revolving credit increased from 14 % to 22 %.

Graphic: Asia Times

When the interest charge on revolving credit is divided by the outstanding balance, it becomes clear that average home interest payments on credit accounts increased from about$ 100 billion in 2020 to approximately$ 225 billion in 2023.

The New York Federal Reserve’s study of consumer credit shows that past-due credit card balances now exceed 11 % of the full, the highest degree in 10 years, while criminal car loans are about 5 % of the total.

Graphic: Asia Times

Additionally, prices caused higher taxes on income earners by putting them in higher tax brackets. Personal income tax revenues increased significantly more quickly than the minimum GDP.

At the top of 2020 prices, US citizens were paying$ 400 billion a year more in federal income taxes than the level of GDP do had predicted.

Graphic: Asia Times

The Fed’s whipsaw is also the main cause of budget considerations. Interest obligations on federal loan doubled as a result of Biden’s spending spree and Fed’s excessive reaction.

Graphic: Asia Times

Jerome Powell, the main perpetrator of the monetary policy blunder, has declared that he wo n’t step down from office before 2026.

It’s not clear whether President Trump will be able to inspire Powell to left sooner. However, the President-elect needs to explain to the British people why they are in this mess and who was responsible for them.

Observe David P Goldman on X at @davidpgoldman

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Snap Sri Lankan election poses test for new leader

Reuters Polling officials and police officers carry election materials after collecting them from a distribution centre Reuters

Sri Lanka’s 17.1 million voters head to the elections once on Thursday to vote in snap legislative elections, scarcely seven weeks after choosing a new president.

More than 8, 800 individuals are in the battle in an vote marked by a low-key plan.

Voting begins at 07: 00 local time ( 01: 30 GMT ) and ends until 16: 00 ( 10.30 GMT ). The benefits are anticipated on Friday and will begin the night counting.

Out of 225 votes in the legislature, 196 MPs will get directly elected. The remaining candidates had been chosen by political parties based on equal representation’s vote count.

Getty Images People queue at a polling station before casting their ballots to vote in Sri Lanka's parliamentary election in ColomboGetty Images

” Over 8, 800 individuals belonging to 49 political parties and 284 separate teams are contesting the votes but only around 1, 000 individuals have deliberately campaigned”, Rohana Hettiarachchi, senior director of ballot monitoring group Women’s Action for Free and Fair Elections, told the BBC.

High inflation, food and fuel shortages precipitated a political crisis in 2022 which led to the ousting of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. His successor Ranil Wickremesinghe managed to negotiate a bailout package worth $3bn with the International Monetary Fund – but many Sri Lankans continue to feel economic hardship.

” We continue to deal with the issues that we once faced. We still do n’t have financial help even to fulfil our daily needs”, 26-year-old garment factory worker Manjula Devi, who works in the Katunayake Free Trade Zone near Colombo, told the BBC.

In Sri Lanka, there are currently 25.9 % more people living below the poverty line than there are. The World Bank projects a 2024 economic growth rate of merely 2.2 %.

” Sri Lanka has still not recovered from the 2022 financial problems, even with the IMF loan”, Raisa Wickrematunge, assistant director of Himal Southasian publication, told the BBC.

The Sri Jayawardenapura General Hospital, a public hospital, is turning off its fans and lighting in an effort to lower skyrocketing energy prices.

The nation made its initial default on its foreign debt in 2022, obliging it to get debt restructuring agreements.

Spectators expect a multi-cornered competition in the general election, which may eventually thorn the chances of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s group, Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, enacting ambitious reforms.

He does struggle to find two-thirds, according to experts, and may need coalition support. This may make his task much more hard”, says Raisa Wickrematunge.

There have n’t been any reports of poll-related deaths or significant misuse of government resources during the election campaign, which has largely been peaceful.

” Violence is small compared to previous votes. It will be quiet votes”, hopes Rohana Hettiarachchie.

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Good time to recall what exactly makes a republic – Asia Times

With concerns over oligarchy, mob rule, a breakdown of equal protection under the law, and the supremacy of citizens ‘ ability to decide the fate of the country, the US presidential election of 2024 was viewed as a crucial test for the country’s political system.

There is no justification for the United States to be immune from full falls throughout history. That fear frequently leads to a passing glib mention of the Greek democracy or the Roman Republic’s close.

But there’s a deeper story: States came into being much earlier in Middle Eastern and Mediterranean societies. And as we try to understand the issues and opportunities, we can use many more examples to guide our understanding.

A real state is a social system without king or focus political energy in any office, branch, or personal. With individual branches of government providing checks and balances, elected representatives represent people and influence decisions on their behalf. In the early days of nations, a far wider range of power structures emerged in contrast to the traditional republics.

Republikas gradually gained popularity as the international standard after World War I, and the majority of previous German colonies formally recognizing their independence in the following century. Nazi and communist countries, which centralized strength in people or ruling events, likewise reduced in quantity.

Despite their concentration of power, however, some fascist and socialist states claimed the title of republics, and while 149 countries out of 193 identify as republics now, much less retain democratic principles and mix them properly with politics. Considering the nations ‘ historical evolution, which ones are best suited to serve as the most resilient modern example?

In sparsely populated economic cultures, states require frequent meetings and assemblies, which makes it difficult to establish them, and empires typically concentrate power very greatly for self-rule. It was in smaller city-states, especially trade-focused people, where citizens may kind factions, exchange ideas, and control government decisions and rules for business.

Some of the earliest experiments with republican governance appeared in ancient Sumerian city-states ( 4500–2000 BC ), centered in modern-day Iraq. Kingships shared energy with royal families and groups, as well as with regular citizens, more as negative arbitrators than rulers. In Kish, residents may appoint a new monarch during catastrophes, while in Uruk, meetings of townsmen and elders had to accept big military decisions.

The Sumerian city-states fell to the Akkadian and Babylonian Empires by 1750 BC, but Phoenician city-states, emerging about 250 years afterward in what is now Lebanon, revived democratic principles. A trader class and citizen council were frequently tasked with a dynastic power in this country. Ancient records from the middle of the fourteenth century BC mention alliances and help requests from the “men of Arwad” and “elders of Irqata” as well as Egyptian records that show Ancient cities sending delegates to symbolize citizens more than monarchs.

By the 6th century BC, the Ancient city of Tyre had functioned for seven years without a king, governed rather under suffetes, or courts, elected for little words. In Chios, a “people’s council” allowed citizens to debate laws and hold officials accountable.

However, beginning in the 9th century BC and continuing over the next few centuries, Phoenician city-states were successively conquered or subjugated by the Assyrian, Babylonian, Persian, and Macedonian Empires.

Like other civilizations, Phoenicians established colonies and trading posts. Carthage, founded by Tyre in 814 BC in modern Tunisia, grew into a powerful city-state with its own republican features.

The monarchy had been replaced by two elected suffetes from aristocratic families in the early 7th century BC. While younger merchants could gain influence and a popular assembly gave citizens the opportunity to voice their opinions on important decisions, they were governed alongside an aristocratic Senate. Additionally, religious and military leaders had a lot of power.

Republican ideals were n’t confined to Mesopotamia and the Mediterranean. In ancient texts, including the Maha Parinibbana Sutta, Indian republics called Gana-Sanghas were mentioned in 6th-century BC.

Some adopted republican styles of government, while others formed republican confederations, like Sumerian and Phoenician city-states, to make decisions collectively and protect against larger threats. The Indian republics were gradually absorbed by the Maurya Empire ( 321–185 BC ) and other entities.

Ancient Greek city-states also developed republican ideals. Although Parta was largely monarchical throughout the region, it still had a constitution and popular assembly as of 600 BC. Athens established a direct democracy in 507 BC, known as demokratia, meaning “people” and “rule”.

Greece’s slave-based economy allowed some citizens time to participate in politics, though this limited political fairness. In 431 BC, Attica, the region surrounding Athens, had an estimated population of 315, 000, of which only 172, 000 were citizens, and just 40, 000 male citizens could vote.

Still, Athens’s democratic system allowed these citizens to frequently debate, deliberate, and vote. The Council of Five Hundred, which was chosen annually by lot to draft laws and oversee administration, supervised them.

However, following Athens ‘ Golden Age, 4th century BC Greek critics like Plato and Aristotle and later historians like Polybius criticized the system for ineffectiveness and vulnerability to charismatic leaders, which sparked irrational policy decisions.

They emphasized balancing public, aristocracy, and monarchical roles to avoid the typical political cycle of chaos and order: first, a strong leader unites a restive society under a monarchy, which evolves into tyranny. It is overthrown and replaced by an aristocracy, which reduces into oligarchy. The cycle is resurrected by democracy after it eventually takes its place but turns into mob rule.

Invasions further weakened Greece’s republican and democratic systems, including in 338 BC, when Greece fell under the control of the Macedonian Empire, ending the independence of many city-states. Despite this, Greek republics created republican confederations to shield themselves from threats, including the nearby Roman Republic.

The term republic derives from the Roman res publica, meaning “public affairs”, emphasizing shared governance, civic participation, and checks and balances. Since its founding in 509 BC, the Roman Republic’s political structure had evolved considerably.

Two consuls were elected and held executive power, as opposed to an aristocratic senate, in Rome, where two tribunes were elected annually to represent the common citizens.

Romans were skeptical of Greek democracy, especially in Athens, due to its instability, infighting, and mob rule. Carthage’s republic sounded overly commercial and lacking in the civic fervor the Romans valued.

This loyalty was central to Rome’s military, staffed by a citizen army motivated by shared rewards. In contrast, Carthage’s strong, citizen-led navy protected trade routes, but its reliance on mercenaries for land campaigns made them costly and unpredictable.

The ability to rebel against Roman rule was diminished by these circumstances. By 146 BC, Rome defeated both Greece and Carthage, cementing its dominance and expanding political system. Polybius suggests that Rome’s success over Carthage was partially due to its powerful, aristocratic Senate, while Carthage’s policies were increasingly shaped by popular influence. He argued that the majority in Carthage favored the influence of the elites over Rome’s decisions.

Yet by this time, Rome was approaching its Late Republic phase. The scholar Harriet Flower’s research argues that the Roman Republic was n’t a single entity but a series of six republics, each with unique political characteristics. The idea of a single Roman Republic has also been criticized by some, dividing it into three distinct periods with changing power structures.

The Early Republic ( 509–367 BC ) was marked by tensions between patricians (aristocratic elites ) and plebeians ( common citizens ). Significant reforms were resulted from the fight for plebeian rights, including the establishment of tribunes, which were frequently elected by the Concilium Plebis to represent common interests.

During the Middle Republic ( 367–133 BC ), the Licinian-Sextian laws of 367 BC were passed to again alleviate tensions between patricians and plebeians, limiting patrician land ownership, providing debt relief for plebeians, and ensuring that at least one of the two consuls was a plebeian. However, political power increasingly concentrated in the Senate, undermining these reforms.

Rome’s military victories over rivals in the Late Republic, which occurred between 133 and 31 BC, coincided with the rise in the number of regular citizens serving in court, particularly jurors. Yet the republic was plagued by social conflict, corruption, and civil unrest.

Sulla’s march on Rome in 88 BC and his curtailing of the tribunes ‘ power exemplified rising instability. After, figures like Pompey in the’ 70s BC and Julius Caesar in 59 BC began consolidating power, further undermining republican values. In 27 BC, Augustus formally transitioned Rome into an empire, while maintaining the illusion of republican traditions.

By backing Augustus, supporting dictatorial powers, and reluctance to impose legal rules during times of crisis, Roman orator Cicero, a well-known proponent of the Republic, unintentionally contributed to its demise, highlighting the dangers of sacrificing republican ideals to manage unrest. For the next few centuries, republican ideals were largely sidelined.

Feudalism and monarchies spread throughout the former Yugoslavian Empire’s territories and peripheral areas after its collapse in 476 AD. This instability nonetheless allowed new republics to emerge, such as Venice, founded in 697 AD.

It maintained a 1, 100-year run as a republic through a political system that encouraged merchant participation and representation, shrewd diplomacy, social mobility, community cohesion, and an extensive trade network. In 1797, France finally conquered it.

During the Italian Renaissance ( 14th to 17th centuries ), urbanization, advancements in communication, and Enlightenment ideals enabled the rise of new city-states. Republican systems were established by merchant classes and other groups as alternatives to European monarchies elsewhere.

However, they were ultimately overthrown by empires, partly because they were unable to take advantage of the expanding Atlantic trade routes, which had diminished the importance of the Mediterranean.

Republics were not confined to Europe. When Chinese settlers recruited by local sultans for mining formed companies to protect their interests, the Kongsi Republics in modern-day Malaysia, particularly the Lanfang Republic, were established.

They eventually developed into autonomous regions with elected leaders and various levels of democratic control. The Lanfang Republic was eventually overthrown by Dutch colonial forces in 1884, with the remainder being absorbed by treaties or militarily overthrown by the end of the century.

The large-scale republican state resurrected following the founding of the United States. The US officially became a constitutional republic in 1787, attempting to end the monarchy while avoiding a tumultuous direct democracy.

The founding fathers established a mixed system, balancing the right to the vote and protecting the aristocracy with the right to demand the government’s consent ( though it was only for white male landowners ). Similar discussions in post-Revolutionary France after 1789 followed the ongoing debates over constitutional amendments and democracy expansion.

Today, many republics exist, but their authenticity and stability can be compromised. Being conquered imposes outside authority, while others pursue foreign expansion themselves, centralizing control and subjugating other territories.

Republics such as those in 16th century Netherlands, 17th century England, and 18th century US and France grew into empires or reverted to monarchies, adapting in ways whose lessons are still relevant today. These expansionist policies, often justified as essential for wealth and security, led to the abandonment of certain republican and democratic principles.

Republics can also shift toward authoritarianism, with modern policymakers perceiving more open democratic systems as unstable and vulnerable to manipulation.

In recent years, China and Russia have seen reductions in public accountability, civil liberties, meaningful political participation, and concentrations of power behind Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.

In North Korea, power has been concentrated in the leader’s office since its founding, with leadership passed within the Kim family. Since the 1990s, there has been a dynasty under the Aliyev family in Azerbaijan, with concerns that Turkmenistan may follow.

Countries with strong presidential systems, common in the Americas, risk concentrating power in the executive branch. Fixed terms limit the removal of unpopular leaders, since, unlike in parliamentary democracies, no” confidence vote” mechanism exists for crisis situations. Partisan loyalty can also weaken checks and balances, and coups can be common.

For representation and collective decision-making, alliances and federations of Greek city-states, such as the Achaean and Lycian Leagues and the Native American Iroquois Confederacy, influenced concepts like the US Constitution and European Union ( EU).

The statement that the US is” a republic, not a democracy” reflects the original aim to keep political power within the states rather than the federal government. However, authority has increasingly centralized in Washington, DC, reducing state sovereignty, tensions mirrored in the EU between individual states and Brussels.

The influence of billionaires and corporations on the political process, government corruption, and the decline of social mobility are also possible causes of political apathy and extremism. Social media platforms offer a greater level of political participation, but they are becoming more vulnerable to disinformation from big tech and political actors, which opens up new ways for democracies to veer away from mob rule.

Countries still navigating the governance structures in their own contexts reflect the historical diversity of republics today. Kazakhstan, initially authoritarian, has seen some shift toward a more balanced system with a more powerful parliament following popular protests in 2022, though it remains less democratic.

Similarly, Singapore, often described as authoritarian, is still considered a republic due to some checks and balances, maintaining a blend of controlled leadership and political structure.

An informed and engaged citizenry, supported by a strong economic base, is essential for a successful republic. Citizens must feel the benefits of their system, and these must endure through fair elections, the rule of law, and due process. Wide-ranging trade networks and adaptable alliances are essential to successful foreign policy, as is a strong military and avoiding military overreach or falling into the trap of foreign conquest.

Historically, empire and monarchy have been more common than republics, shaping world order through hierarchical and anarchic systems. Republikas can govern more democratically by cooperating in a manner akin to that of ancient confederations, which is intended to support the sovereignty and equality of nations.

The Achaean League and Lycian League consisted of states with varying political systems cooperating within a loose, republican-style confederation. Countries can work together under common principles and gain a voice in the global system through modern blocs like the EU, ASEAN, and the African Union.

Direct democracy has meanwhile increased in domestic politics in the 2010s as more popular referendums on legal and constitutional issues have been conducted around the world, especially in Europe.

Direct democracy is becoming more evident at regional and local levels, even though larger republics like the US, Germany, and India still largely avoid national-level votes on important issues. Due to the rushed nature of ballot initiatives in states like California and Arizona, which give little time for meaningful discussion, deliberation and integration still suffer.

These referendums have recently become more popular and offered a substitute for traditional political processes thanks to modern citizen assemblies, which are based on those that were founded thousands of years ago.

They have influenced major policy changes, such as climate policies in France to abortion laws in Ireland, with assemblies, typically convened by legislative bodies in partnership with nonprofits, designed to reflect demographics. While they have led to concrete policy shifts, some recommendations have not been adopted, with lawmakers citing the importance of expert-led decision-making.

With the US election behind us, reassessing republican ideals, both domestically and globally, is crucial. How the GOP implements policies will ease or amplify concerns as it potentially takes control of all three branches of government in a divided country.

The US’s ability to influence the world and implement its influence in accordance with democratic principles will determine the country’s future.

John P Ruehl is an Australian-American journalist living in Washington, DC, and a world affairs correspondent for the Independent Media Institute. He is a contributor to several foreign affairs publications, and his book, Budget Superpower: How Russia Challenges the West With an Economy Smaller Than Texas ‘, was published in December 2022.

Human Bridges provided the Independent Media Institute with permission to republish this article.

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​Biden funding request will tell the tale for Ukraine’s future – Asia Times

President Joe Biden will beg Congress for more funding for Ukraine, according to Jake Sullivan, the national safety council’s leader. &nbsp, The death of this demand, if it is really put forward, will likely be a bellwether&nbsp, for Ukraine’s potential.

No exact numbers have been provided for a request for money from Ukraine by the White House or the NSC thus far.

With a still-family-friendly Congress, Biden and his officials hope to pass a assess for Ukraine. &nbsp, It is, however, not at all sure he can become powerful.

If the estimate is submitted and rejected, or just not acted on, Zelensky in Ukraine may be faced with a tough three-way choice: deal with the Russians, come down in flames or withdraw from office.

The present Congress has shown a respectable support for Ukraine, having supported at least one and possibly both chambers under Democratic control in January. &nbsp, Past actions have passed both the Senate, which now is controlled by Democrats but will be Republican-dominated starting in January, and the House of Representatives, which is led by Republicans and expected to continue that approach. &nbsp,

Trump’s support for the president will be a crucial factor yet before he takes business. Trump may question his Republican colleagues to just drop to proceed a measure in the House, largely postponing its consideration until his administration takes office if he opposes more Ukraine aid, which is a real possibility.

According to this article, support for Ukraine is still accessible for roughly$ 3 billion in funding approved by Congress.

In January of this year, Biden requested an additional&nbsp,$ 60 billion &nbsp, in emergency funding to support Ukraine. This act was part of the&nbsp,” supplemental investing” &nbsp, bundle, which also included funding for various government interests such as disaster relief, border security and defense investing. The&nbsp,$ 60 billion &nbsp, was particularly allocated for Ukraine’s ongoing military and humanitarian assistance.

The essential parts of the invoice included:

  • $ 24 billion &nbsp, in&nbsp, military aid, including ammunition, weapons systems ( fighter jets, air defense systems, etc ), training and logistics support,
  • $ 14 billion &nbsp, in&nbsp, economic aid&nbsp, to stabilize Ukraine’s economy and help maintain essential government functions,
  • $ 8 billion &nbsp, in&nbsp, humanitarian assistance&nbsp, for refugees, displaced persons, and medical aid, and
  • additional funding for energy system, restoration and bolstering Ukraine’s long-term security features.

Voting in the House of Representatives

The&nbsp, House&nbsp, of Representatives, particularly under the leadership of&nbsp, Speaker Mike Johnson&nbsp, ( who took over after Kevin McCarthy’s ousting in October 2023 ), faced fierce debates over the Ukraine funding. By January 2024 criticism from within the&nbsp, Republican Party, specifically from more traditional parties, &nbsp, had solidified around ending or reducing US aid to Ukraine.

Vote outcome: The&nbsp, House voted 216-212&nbsp, to approve the$ 60 billion Ukraine funding package as part of a broader supplemental funding bill.

  • Republican criticism: A considerable number of&nbsp, Republican&nbsp, people voted against the support offer, especially those from the&nbsp, Freedom Caucus&nbsp, and other conservatives who opposed continued international investing. They argued that US national priorities should be prioritized over domestic issues like debt reduction, inflation, and border security.
  • Democratic support: Most&nbsp, Democrats&nbsp, voted in favor of the package, with Ukraine aid being a central issue for them as part of their broader foreign policy priorities.

The vote in the House was &nbsp, extremely close. The administration made the claim that Ukraine was triumphing in the war at the time of the vote. The national security community holds the position that Ukraine will have to negotiate with Moscow, and that claim is no longer valid.

Senate vote

The&nbsp, Senate, which has traditionally been more supportive of Ukraine’s defense efforts, passed the same$ 60 billion aid package with greater bipartisan support, though there were still some Republicans who voted against it.

  • Vote outcome: The&nbsp, Senate voted 74-22&nbsp, in favor of the bill, with&nbsp, bipartisan support&nbsp, largely coming from the&nbsp, Democratic caucus&nbsp, and moderate Republicans.
  • Republican opposition: While the opposition was still significant in the Senate, especially from conservative Republicans such as Senators&nbsp, Rand Paul, &nbsp, Josh Hawley and&nbsp, J. D. Vance, who have become vocal critics of U. S. involvement in the Ukraine conflict, the majority of Republicans voted in favor of the package.
  • J. D. Vance is now the Vice-President Elect.
  • Democratic support: Most&nbsp, Senate Democrats&nbsp, voted in favor of the bill, consistent with their support for Ukraine.

If Republicans were to win more money for Ukraine, it’s not clear whether that would be a majority in the Senate. Trump might argue that he needs the most control over Ukraine and ask that the Senate and House prevent the Senate from approving any funding measure at this time.

Money bills traditionally have to originate in the House of Representatives. The Senate might never consider the Biden request if the House moves a funding measure.

Consequences

Under current conditions, President Biden’s funding request for Ukraine is unlikely to be approved, at least not now. &nbsp, Even if the money becomes available, the US has few weapons it can afford to share with Ukraine. &nbsp, &nbsp,

What weapons do allies occasionally need from the US? &nbsp, For example, in late 2020, the US authorized the sale of 64 ATACMS and 11 HIMARS M142 launchers to Taiwan. &nbsp, Following adjustments to its defense priorities, Taiwan later increased its order, ordering an additional 18 HIMARS systems and raising its ATACMS order from 64 to 84 units.

The first ATACMS missile deliveries for HIMARS have already been made to Taiwan, according to this report. The HIMARS launchers arrived in early November. Other countries including&nbsp, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Morocco also have requested&nbsp, HIMARS and ATACMS missiles. While the Pentagon and White House claim&nbsp, there are enough HIMARS and ATACMS, &nbsp, the fact is that if an actual conflict occurred elsewhere, particularly in the Pacific, HIMARS and ATACMS missiles would be needed.

Likewise there are shortages of anti aircraft systems, missiles for Patriot and ammunition in various calibers .&nbsp, It will take some time, measured in years, to replenish stocks of ammunition and weapons.

The US could hand over its weapon ‘s&nbsp, stockpiles in Europe, but doing so would effectively disarm US troops and weaken NATO crucially. &nbsp, Therefore doing that is highly unlikely.

In the end, Biden’s request is mostly a Hail Mary pass before he is replaced in late January.

Zelensky will undoubtedly realize that American support for Ukraine is at a turning point, and that Washington’s efforts to woo Ukraine wo n’t succeed in getting more. We’re not sure whether that will convince him to talk to the Russians. But as Ukraine is on the verge of collapse, Zelensky may take the diplomatic route, or he may resign.

Former US deputy undersecretary of defense Stephen Bryen is a recognized authority on security strategy and technology. This article originally appeared on his Substack, Weapons and Strategy. It is republished with permission.

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