Trump’s BRICS ultimatum won’t deter de-dollarization – Asia Times

The US President-elect is undoubtedly concerned about what the BRICS countries might have in business for the US dollar as Donald Trump prepares for a second term in the White House.

And, not surprisingly, Trump is threatening big-time fines for any hint of de-dollarization among Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and the grouping’s novel people, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Trump recently posted to his Truth Social system, saying that the notion that the BRICS countries are trying to walk away from the money while we watch and watch is over.

We demand a commitment from these nations that they won’t create a new BRICS money, nor will they support any other money to replace the powerful US money, or that they will be subject to 100 % tariffs, and that they should anticipate saying goodbye to selling into the wonderful US market.

Never simply a delightful bed from the Trump 2.0 group. Trump’s affected tariffs on the BRICS may only serve as fuel for the” International South” to look for or develop a buck alternative.

According to Michael Wan, senior currency analyst at MUFG Research, it’s unclear how 100 % tariffs on a group of nations that make up 37 % of global GDP would actually occur.

Additionally, it’s unclear how the BRICS’ sky-high taxes would benefit the world’s largest economy. But as Deutsche Bank argues, Trump’s preoccupation with a powerful money appears greater than ever.

” This seems to further show that money strength is an concern for the new leadership, unlike Trump 1.0″, when the US took a less ambitious approach, Deutsche researchers wrote.

Development countries have plenty of reason to be concerned about the dollars with US government debt exceeding US$ 36 trillion and Trump countering enormous budget-busting tax cuts. Washington, after all, only has one AAA record score left — from Moody’s Investors Service.

Morgan Stanley, for one, is advising that it might be time to sell the dollars. According to scientist David Adams,” a lot of the great news for the USD” has already been priced, with the majority of them having “largely internalized the US outperformance storyline” based on Trump’s pledges to impose their tax and trade policies. Businesses, though, may become “overestimating the rate, depth and scale” of those swings.

” We sense investment attitude on the whole is very productive on the franc, suggesting asymmetrical risks for a’ problems trade,’ in the months ahead”, Adams noted.

Trump World has made it clear the US Federal Reserve’s democracy, a key component in global confidence in the greenback, is also on the board come January. The” Project 2025″ system that his Democratic party cooked up for Trump 2.0 includes treatments for curbing the Fed’s much-vaunted freedom.

The Fed almost escaped Trump 1.0 unhurt. Trump placed the pressure on his hand-picked Fed Chairman Jerome Powell first and frequently during his first term in office, which spanned from 2017 to 2021.

Trump attacked the Powell-led Fed in statements, press events and on social media. Trump also mulled firing Powell. The Fed started adding liquidity to an business that didn’t have any additional assistance in the same year.

In October, Trump mocked Powell’s policy staff over. ” I think it’s the greatest job in government”, Trump told Bloomberg. Everyone talks about you like a god when you say, “let’s say turn a gold,” and you show up to the office once a month.

But&nbsp, Trump&nbsp, even defends the right of the leader to persuade the Fed into lowering costs. In August, Trump said,” the Federal Reserve&nbsp, is a very fascinating thing and it’s sort of gotten it wrong a bunch”.

Trump added,” I feel the leader should have at least stayed there, yeah. I feel that clearly. I think that, in my situation, I made a lot of money. I was extremely prosperous. And I believe I have a better impulse than those who, in many cases, may become chairman of the Federal Reserve.

For Asian officials and politicians, it’s a truly personalized abuse on the Fed’s position. The largest US Treasury supplies ever held by Eastern central bankers are held by the world’s largest central banks. Japan only holds$ 1.1 trillion&nbsp, of US loan, China$ 770-plus billion.

More broadly, Asia’s largest holders of dollars are sitting on about$ 3 trillion worth. It all implies that a Trump 2.0 administration would put a lot of Asian state success in danger.

Actually so, Trump is trying to wrench up tariff-induced problems for any country — or economic bloc — brave to champion a penny alternative.

The coming Treasury Department, however, was apply currency manipulation charges, trade controls or levies on trade beyond anything Trump has previously suggested or announced.

Trump appears to be prepared to punish allies who look to conduct bilateral trade in currencies other than the dollar, as well as adversaries. In March, Trump told CNBC that he “would not allow countries to go off the dollar”, as it would be” a hit to our country”.

Yet de-dollarization has moved to the center of the BRICS agenda, particularly since the grouping’s 2023 summit. Both Trump’s and US President Joe Biden’s fingerprints are present in this backlash.

Trump’s meddling with the Fed, hints at defaulting on US debt, and fiscal excesses affected dollar perceptions significantly. When Fitch Ratings revoked Washington’s AAA status, it&nbsp, cited the Capitol Hill chaos on&nbsp, January&nbsp, 6, 2021, as a “reflection of the deterioration in governance” imperiling US finances.

Biden-led efforts to impose economic sanctions on Russia, including accusations of “weaponizing” the dollar, exacerbated the problem.

” The United States ‘ ability to hobble Russia to this extent, without firing a shot, highlights the sovereignty of the United States and the dollar in the global economy”, argues George Pearkes, an analyst at the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center.

” In this case”, Pearkes noted,” sovereignty is the degree to which a currency issuer can dictate the use of that currency”. But, he added,” by using the power of dollar sovereignty, dollar sovereignty risks endangering the reserve status, which allows it to be weaponized”.

To be sure, Pearkes noted that “aggressive use of dollar weaponization has been signaled repeatedly by US policymakers to achieve US goals in the current Ukraine dispute.”

Although this would have a significant impact on Russia, he noted that “negative feedback on dollar sovereignty will be measured in decades rather than years— and will unavoidably come.”

According to Pearkes,” the ability to restrict access to financial markets is significantly more powerful than it has historically been.” What’s more, he noted,” the weaponized dollar” was “already a fact of life in global affairs” before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Pearkes noted that” the governments of Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Venezuela can all attest to that fact, as can their civilian populations. In all four countries, dollar sovereignty has been weaponized in a contemporary context”.

Trump is, however, steadfast in his desire to avoid the risk that the Global South might lose the dollar. &nbsp,

There is no way the BRICS will ever replace the US dollar in global trade, and any nation trying should wave goodbye to America, Trump said via social media.

Trump has recently shook markets with plans to impose 25 % tariffs on Canada and Mexico as well as additional levies on China up and above the 60 % he has already threatened.

Curiously, Trump said he’s had contact with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in recent days. Over the weekend, Trump told NBC that “we’ve had communication”.

At the Group of 20 summit in Japan in June 2019, Trump and Xi had their final in-person meeting. Trump stated to NBC,” I had an agreement with President Xi, who I got along with very well.

Still, Trump World is clearly steeling for a Trade War 2.0 with Xi’s Communist Party. Last week, Trump buttressed his” Tariff Man” street cred by naming uber-China hawk Peter Navarro as his top trade adviser. Navarro, &nbsp, who in 2011 co-authored a book titled” Death by China”, rarely misses a chance to accuse Xi’s party of “robbing us blind”.

Trump also appointed aggressive China critic Marco Rubio as secretary of state, and padded his next trade negotiations team with extremists like Jamieson Greer and Robert Lighthizer.

Trump 2.0’s supporters contend that tariffs are merely a tactic used to bring Xi’s party to consensus. Yet Xi’s inner circle seems unsure of Trump’s sincerity concerning a new “grand bargain” trade deal.

Case in point: Beijing’s move to limit the sales of key components used to build drones to the US and Europe. While bad news for Ukraine’s defense against Russia, it also serves as a sign of upcoming broader export restrictions.

China also opened an investigation into US chipmaker Nvidia this week following concerns that the business might have violated its anti-monopoly laws. This is also being interpreted as a sign of targeted Chinese trade war retaliation measures. Nvidia is at the center of Nvidia’s efforts to rule the artificial intelligence market.

Earlier this year, the BRICS added Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to its ranks.

Mariel Ferragamo, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, said,” The addition of Egypt and Ethiopia will amplify voices from the African continent.” Egypt also shared close political ties with Russia and close business ties with China and India. As a new BRICS member, Egypt seeks to&nbsp, attract more investment&nbsp, and improve its battered economy”.

According to Ferragamo,” the addition of Saudi Arabia and the UAE would bring in the Arab world’s two biggest economies, as well as the second and eighth top oil producers globally.”

Yet the most powerful connector among BRICS members, old and new, is stepping out of Washington’s financial orbit. As such,” we think the bloc&nbsp, has &nbsp, the most potential to forward its de-dollarization agenda in&nbsp, FX reserves and fuel trade”, said Chris Turner, global markets head at ING Bank.

Turner noted that the BRICS bloc controls 42 % of global central bank currency reserves, likely contributing to the global de-dollarization process.

The BRICS is “gaining more and more visibility as a trade partner for other emerging markets, particularly in the fuel trade,” adding that it is “gaining more and more ground in regional trade.” BRICS accounts for 37 % of the EM fuel trade, a key area of interest for de-dollarization”, he said.

The BRICS , Turner noted, “is actively de-dollarizing its financial flows from above-average levels, as seen through declining shares of US dollar in their cross-border bank claims, international debt securities, and broader external debt”.

The BRICS , according to Turner, “has a much smaller global presence in those areas that limits the impact of its regional de-dollarization on the global role of the US dollar.”

Even so, the BRICS are causing the dollar to pivot, despite Trump’s efforts to stifle the process. Perhaps the better course of action would be to improve the US financial system.

But that seems unlikely as Trump eyes additional multi-trillion-dollar tax cuts sure to push America’s national debt toward an eye-watering$ 40 trillion over the next four years.

Trump may also be using the reserve currency to defy de-dollarization advocates. With the BRICS cast playing the role of a spoiler, the dollar will likely be a major battleline in the Trump 2.0 era.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Adani Group: Will bribery charges hinder India’s renewable energy goals?

Reuters Indian billionaire Gautam Adani attends the 51st Gems and Jewellery Awards in Jaipur, India, November 30, 2024. REUTERS/StringerReuters

Business leaders have told the BBC that corruption allegations made by a US judge against the Adani Group are unlikely to significantly alter India’s commitment to fresh energy.

Delhi, which is essential to global efforts to combat climate change, has committed to getting half of its energy needs or 500 gigawatts ( GW ) of electricity from renewable sources by 2032.

The Adani Group is expected to make a twelfth of that contribution.

The legal troubles in the US could temporarily delay the group’s expansion plans but will not affect the government’s overall targets, analysts say.

Over the past ten years, India has made significant progress in building a clean energy facilities.

The nation is growing at the “fastest level among key economy” in adding solar potential, according to the International Energy Agency.

Installed fresh strength power has grown five-fold, with some 45 % of the region’s power-generation capacity- of almost 200GW- coming from non-fossil fuel sources.

Charges against the Adani Group- essential to India’s fresh energy ambitions- are “like a passing black cloud”, and will not adequately impact this momentum, a previous CEO of a rival firm said, wanting to remain anonymous.

Getty Images A maintenance worker inspects solar panels at a solar power plant operated by Ayana Renewable Power Pvt. in Tuticorin, India, on Wednesday, March 20, 2024. Getty Images

Gautam Adani has vowed to invest $100bn (£78.3bn) in India’s energy transition. Its green energy arm is the country’s largest renewable energy company, producing nearly 11GW of clean energy through a diverse portfolio of wind and solar projects.

Adani has a goal to scale that to 50GW BY 2030, which will make up roughly 10 % of the region’s unique installed power.

Over half of that, or 30GW, may be produced at Khavda, in the northern Indian state of Gujarat. It is billed as the largest fresh power plant in the world, five times the size of Paris, and the crown jewel of Adani’s solar initiative.

However, US prosecutors are now focusing on Khavda and Adani’s other renewable energy amenities, alleging that they obtained bribes from American officials after winning contracts to supply power to express submission companies from these facilities. The organization has refuted this assertion.

However, the consequences are now discernible at the organization level.

Adani Green Energy immediately canceled a$ 600 million bond offering in the US when the indictment was made public.

France’s TotalEnergies, which owns 20 % of Adani Green Energy and has a joint endeavor to develop various solar projects with the company, said it will end new capital infusion into the business.

Significant credit ratings agencies- Moody’s, Fitch and S&amp, P- have since changed their view on Adani team companies, including Adani Green Energy, to bad. This may affect the company’s ability to raise money and increase the cost of doing so.

As global loans become resentful of the group’s increased exposure, researchers have also raised fears about Adani Green Energy’s ability to refinance its debts.

International lenders like Jeffries and Barclays are now said to be reviewing their ties to Adani despite the group’s dependence on foreign banks and local friendship issues for long-term bill increasing from little 14 % in the 2016 fiscal year to nearly 60 % as of this writing, according to a Bernstein note.

Nomura, a Japanese brokerage, claims that new financing should “gradually resume in the long term” despite the possibility that it might dry up in the short term. Meanwhile, Japanese banks like MUFG, SMBC, Mizuho are likely to continue their relationship with the group.

The “reputational and sentimental impact” will fade away in a few months, as Adani is building” solid, strategic assets and creating long-term value”, the unnamed CEO said.

Getty Images This aerial photograph taken on October 15, 2024 shows solar panels installed at the Adani Green Renewable Energy Plant in Khavda, in India's Gujarat state. Getty Images

The Adani Group’s spokesperson told the BBC that it was” confident of delivering 50 GW of renewable energy capacity and committed to its 2030 goals.”

Adani stocks have rebounded significantly from their lowest levels since the US court’s indictment.

Some analysts told the BBC that Adani’s competitors might benefit from a potential slowdown in funding.

While Adani’s financial influence has allowed it to rapidly expand in the sector, its competitors such as Tata Power, Goldman Sachs-backed ReNew Power, Greenko and state-run NTPC Ltd are also significantly ramping up manufacturing and generation capacity.

” It’s not that Adani is a green energy champion. Being the biggest private developer of coal plants in the world, it is a big player that has walked both sides of the street,” said Tim Buckley, director at Climate Energy Finance.

A large entity, “perceived to be corrupt” possibly slowing its expansion, could mean “more money will start flowing into other green energy companies”, he said.

According to Vibhuti Garg, director of South Asia at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis ( IEEFA ), market fundamentals also continue to be strong, with India’s demand outpacing supply, which is likely to maintain the appetite for large investments.

What could in fact slow the pace of India’s clean energy ambitions is its own bureaucracy.

” Companies we track are very upbeat. Finance isn’t a problem for them. If anything, it is state-level regulations that act as a kind of deterrent”, says Ms Garg.

Getty Images Wind turbines at the ReGen Powertech Pvt. farm in Dewas, Madhya Pradesh, India, on Friday, Sept. 9, 2022. Getty Images

Most state-run power distribution companies continue to face financial constraints, opting for cheaper fossil fuels, while dragging their feet on signing purchase agreements.

According to Reuters, the controversial tender won by Adani was the first major contract issued by state-run Solar Energy Corp of India (SECI) without a guaranteed purchase agreement from distributors.

According to SEC I’s chairman, there are 30GW of operational green energy projects on the market without buyers.

According to experts, the 8GW solar contract at the heart of Adani’s US indictment also reveals the tense tendering process, which required solar power generation companies to produce modules, which limited the number of bidders and increased power costs.

According to Ms. Garg, the court’s indictment will undoubtedly cause the bidding and tendering rules to tighten.

According to Mr. Buckley, a cleaner tendering process that lowers risks for both developers and investors will be crucial going forward.

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Reminder to America: How republics succeed, falter and fail – Asia Times

The US has a fragmented and impressive economy that draws international talent and unparalleled military strength, which gives it an edge over other republics.

Yet the Roman Republic, which had its own analytical benefits, eventually fell to authoritarian rule, and the US faces a similar fate if it fails to protect administrative dignity and unchallenged power continues to grow.

Reform is essential to maintaining democratic government, but history shows that enshrined strength frequently threatens this process. Social function and the growing impact of business interests threaten to destroy the basic principles of the US, posing a threat to its long-term security.

From its beginning, the US has worked to address its internal inconsistencies by guaranteeing good therapy for its citizens. Autocratic impulses even emerged first, with minute President John Adams’s Alien and Sedition Acts targeting political dissent, refugees, and free conversation.

Lincoln later expanded his executive power during the Civil War, avoiding Congress to protect the Union and end slavery, which has become the most controversial and considerable political issue since the country’s founding.

Despite for departures from Constitutional procedure—sometimes for great reasons—the system’s checks and balances finally resisted after senior overreach, likeFDR’sfailed Court-Packing plan.

The unique political challenges facing democratic techniques are concerning, but the degradation of democratic culture also causes irreversible shifts in the political landscape. Political bribery, unregulated imperialism, and government serving business interests over citizens mix to continuously get the system.

A select group of actors has created a constant, increasingly scripted cultural-political spectacle, causing civic decay. As a result, the public has reduced active participation in governance in exchange for the passive right to cheer or criticize from the sidelines.

The Roman Republic’s collapse, which endured for centuries before becoming a slave country, provides valuable context—lessons on not only what values to uphold but also on how reform efforts can backfire.

Half-hearted efforts to fix inequality and instability often strained the system, pushing it closer to dysfunction and leading it to autocracy. Learning from Republican Rome’s successes and failures can be applied to the challenges of today.

A balanced republican political system encourages elites to compromise, build consensus, and compete for public approval, qualities the early Roman Republic struggled to develop after its establishment in 509 BC.

The Senate, which was largely dominated by the patrician aristocracy, had theoretically the power to act as an advisory body, but in reality it had significant influence over finances, foreign policy, and much of the legislative process. Nonetheless, there was strong competition among patrician families for the two annual consulship positions.

In addition to limiting any power concentration, these roles, which were filled through the cursus honorum ( course of honor ), allowed two capable leaders to ascend to the position in a predetermined hierarchy and shared short-term executive authority.

Consuls often entered the Senate or assumed other political positions after their terms, where they could be prosecuted for misconduct. Because of this rotation and accountability, leaders ‘ interests were better off running the state than accumulating personal acclaim for their roles or accomplishments.

The design of Roman statues also supported this culture, celebrating the civic virtue of individuals over personal achievements. In deft contrast to the idealized perfection of Greek art, the stereotypes depict aging and imperfections. The Republic also barred actors from government, viewing their imitation of life as deceptive and unworthy of public office.

Republican Rome thrived on political engagement, despite uneven participation, like other effective republican city-states. The Republic’sseasonal political process, shaped by agricultural cycles, military campaigns, and religious festivals, advantaged wealthy landowners who could afford to leave their estates for politics, perpetuating uneven and inconsistent efforts to address problems.

Military victories were frequently a factor in political advancement, which made them popular and occasionally pursued for personal reasons rather than strategic reasons.

Yet this seasonal structure still created predictable opportunities for many citizens to travel to Rome to participate in political affairs, ensuring concentrated and focused decision-making during key periods. Additionally, it found ways to lessen the power imbalance between the patricians and the commoners, or plebeians.

TheConflict of the Orders (5th to 3rd centuries BC ) brought about significant gains for plebeians. Rome’s economy was severely hampered by mass strikes, and soldiers refused to fight, leading to changes like the Concilium Plebis, along with theComita Tributa.

Additionally, after 451 BC, legal safeguards via the Twelve Tables and the establishment of the Tribunes of the Plebs—two annually elected magistrates with executive power to protect plebeian interests—were also won.

Plebeians gained greater social mobility during the fourth century BC, including the right to wed patricians, as well as gaining access to the consular office, the Senate, and other positions of religious authority.

After 338 BC, the Latin Rights extended certain privileges to non-Roman communities in Italy, such as intermarriage and participation in commerce. Although full citizenship gradually became available, these measures integrated new populations while preserving the identity of Roman citizens.

Despite the Republic’s growing wealth and territories, inequality remained rife. The army’s backbone was made up of Plubeians, who suffered the most from imperial expansion but hardly received any rewards.

Longer military service in support of campaigns left them unable to tend to their farms, indebting many. Plubeians frequently capitalized on this by acquiring their lands, but the use of slave labor during conquests reduced plebeians ‘ bargaining power as necessary workers. Many moved to Rome, swelling the urban poor.

Prior republics, including Rome, had a history of erasing debts and lowering slavery to restore economic balances, but these measures ceased in the Late Republic. Expansion also strained governance, as new territories were home to communities who had fewer rights than Roman citizens andpaid heavily in taxes, further exposing the Republic’s systemic inequities.

Policies intended to combat inequality frequently ended up worsening it. The Lex Claudia ( 218 BC ), for instance, barred senators and their sons from owning large commercial ships to prevent them from dominating Rome’s expanding maritime trade. However, this primarily benefited wealthy Plebeians and other elites who could afford their own fleets, widening economic disparities.

Richer plebeians also disproportionately benefited from privilegeslike access to higher office, enabling only some to join the senatorial elite. The horseman’s order, which had its roots in Rome’s cavalry, eventually developed into a distinct wealthy class. Though largely lacking formal political power, members enjoyed elevated benefits and economic strength that deepened Rome’s social stratification.

Many of the new elites developed into populist reformers, or<a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/ancient-roman-history-<a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/ancient-roman-history-optimates-119359″>optimates-119359″>populares ( “for the people” ), or<a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/ancient-roman-history-optimates-119359″>optimates ( “best men” ), who opposed the senatorial elite. Distinctions between the two groupswere not always strict—the <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/ancient-roman-history-<a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/ancient-roman-history-optimates-119359″>optimates-119359″>populares included both new aristocratic elites and sidelined senatorial factions seeking to reclaim influence lost to dominant <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/ancient-roman-history-optimates-119359″>optimates.

Populares-aligned politicians used plebeian support to alter the power balance in their favor, shifting from genuine reform to self-serving opportunism. Alliances were fluid, showing how Roman politics often prioritized status and influence over rigid ideology.

Plebeians ‘ demands for greater equality were further fueled by elite infighting, which used their citizenship and numbers to further their advantage. Political gridlock became more frequent, and violence escalated.

Numerous of their supporters were killed in addition to prominent pro-Plebean leaders like Tiberius Gracchus ( 133 BC ), Gaius Gracchus ( 121 BC ), and Publius Clodius Pulcher ( 52 BC ). In this way, Roman politics devolved into a zero-sum struggle where the defeated often faced death.

They were more prone to break with political customs and precedents when it was appropriate for their cause because of the use of violence and intimidation to harm plebeian interests, coupled with persistent inequality. Power was increasingly extended in executive positions, with populares-aligned Gaius Mariusholding seven consulships, and citizen soldiers showing increasing loyalty to individual commanders rather than the state.

A dramatic overcorrection resulted from Marius ‘ eventual defeat by Lucius Cornelius Sulla, a patrician allies ‘ ally. During his dictatorship ( 82–79 BC ), Sulla’s constitution aimed to curb instability by empoweringthe old aristocracy and Senate, severely weakening the tribunes, and restricting thepowers of citizenship.

The enthralled aristocracy failed to address the root causes of economic inequality. Ambitious figures like Pompey, through military power, and Marcus Licinius Crassus, through immense wealth, exploited these tensions to consolidate power and play kingmaker.

Under Julius Caesar’s plebeian-friendly policies bypassed the Senate by utilizing popular assemblies, Sulla’s reforms ultimately failed, exposing the new fragility of Rome’s legal system.

Thegrowing glorification of individual leaders reached a turning point when Caesar became the first living Roman to appear on a coin, a stark departure from tradition. After being deemed a dictator for life, his assassination by senators infuriated the electorate, which sparked a power struggle and civil war. This ultimately led to the rise of Caesar’s adopted heir, Octavian, who centralized authority in 27 BC and later became known as Augustus.

Many Romans willingly traded their political rights for oligarchic rule, violence, and uncertainty while maintaining a facade of republican governance. When rumors spread of Octavian relinquishing his special powers, public sentiment opposed the idea.

With the emergence of the Roman Empire, an urban proletariat that was dependent on state-sponsored food distribution and entertained by gladiator games became more and more peaceful under the strategy of “bread and circuses,” strengthening the new order.

A reshuffling of the nobility, suppression of opposition, and unchecked territorial expansion fueled instability in Republican Rome. Despite its 500-year existence and shoddy attempts to address it, persistent inequality remained the Republic’s fundamental flaw.

These pose lessons for the US today. Inequality continues to be a major issue in the US. Once marked by strong social mobility, at least for white residents, ithas declined since the 1940s, initially due to the end of the post-war boom but now reflecting deeper systemic flaws.

US social welfare falls behind in comparison to the EU, and policies like corporate bailouts highlight how citizens bear the burden of debt while large corporations profit from government regulation and lucrative contracts. Aculture of consumerism encourages US citizens to take on debt, mirroring the problems of the Roman Republic, instead of building a more efficient economic system.

Republican Rome’s challenges and those faced by the US are similar, but each has its own unique set of problems. In Rome, the wealthy were directly involved in political life, using their influence to shape decisions.

In contrast, US elites have access to representatives, who are encouraged to advance their interests despite not typically coming from the wealthiest social classes. This indirect control reduces the accountability of the elite, as their influence is masked by the modern US political structure and hidden from public view.

Although corrupt or incompetent politicians can be imprisoned or tried for, those who are truly responsible for the system remain largely unaffected, allowing the pay-to-play political system to continue unabated.

Rome’s political processes grew opaque and less respected, a trend increasingly seen in contested US elections in recent decades. After George W. Bush’s contentious victory in 2000 and Trump’s victory in 2016, there were still doubts among Democrats that remained within institutional boundaries.

However, election denial escalated dramatically with Trump’s response to Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, and the ensuing 2021 insurrection marked a major challenge to the peaceful transfer of power and trust in electoral integrity.

Establishing trust in the process calls for strict rules regarding voting, role assignment, and transparency in procedures. Laws crafted through open processes rather than private deals are crucial, allowing citizens to view the electoral process and governance as fair, smooth, and rooted in mutual understanding.

However, the risks of unrelenting public political engagement have grown even more acute. Modern technology enables 24/7 politicization, and constant campaigning distracts from governance and risks citizen burnout.

Public apathy makes it possible for organized elites to rule politics, and only well-resourced groups can effectively mobilize and strategize, according to legal scholar Ganesh Sitaraman.

The US judiciary remains distinct in its reliance on common law, a system shared by a few English-speaking countries, allowing adaptability through evolving precedents as new cases are brought forward.

Juries ‘ use imposes a fundamental responsibility on citizens ‘ moral and legal judgment, ensuring public participation. However, this system is increasingly vulnerable to politicization, as judicial appointments and voting processes for judges and other judicial/law enforcement positions risk undermining impartiality and fairness.

Political parties were also opposed by the Founding Fathers because they feared factionalism would sever national unity. Today, the two major parties and their supporters increasingly treat politicsas a sports rivalry, prioritizing spectacle over policy debate.

Both parties rely on the power of celebrity to entice voters, with Ronald Reagan becoming the first actor-president in 1981, followed by entertainer Trump in 2017, while Democrats have consistently relied on the power of celebrity to win over voters.

This reliance on high-profile public figures allows citizens to disengage, as these amplified individuals are granted tacit approval to shape policy—even when they lack the expertise to do so—reducing the public’s role in democratic governance to passive spectatorship.

Violent language undermines the foundation of republican culture of compromise. While Trump is commonly associated with this trend in the US ( and remains its most persistent voice ), Democrats have also contributed. In the 1960s and 1970s, political violence was primarily directed at influential US figures, but it is now increasingly threatening local officials as well.

Comments about the existential danger posed by political opponents have been consistently undercut by post-election embraces. Trump was welcomed back to the White House by President Obama in 2016, just like Biden did in 2024, and he also toned down his stance toward them after victories. These radical shifts in messaging reveal the performative nature of politicians ‘ language and weaken the credibility of political discourse.

A healthy republic relies on the public’s support and deliberation as its last resort. Yet although Congress holds the constitutional authority to declare war, it has not done sosince 1941.

Instead, executive war powers have grown as a result of the abuse of emergency measures, preventing public sway over war and peace decisions. Numerous presidents have labeled major recent wars like Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan as mistakes, eroding trust in leadership to responsibly conduct war.

The Trump administration now has to address undocumented populations and immigration. Past policies like Reagan’s Amnesty Bill and Obama’s executive action for so-called Dreamers caused friction and had far-reaching political consequences. Immigration was a central issue in the 2024 election, with Trump likely to have a strong support for a crackdown on illegal immigrants.

Solutions, however, must go beyond piecemeal fixes or mass deportations, which risk violating human rights and republican ideals. The main problems with immigration reform and enforcement are also ignored by less drastic approaches, like those pursued by Biden.

Rome offers a cautionary tale: patricians and plebeians showed rare unity in the Late Republic when they united against Gracchus after hepledged to extend citizenship rights to other populations. The situation demonstrates the need to increase responsibility.

The US economybenefits from labor tied to undocumented populations, and the root causes of migration, includingdecades of US intervention in Latin America, must also be acknowledged.

The US was initially established as a republican league of states, but it soon realized that national cohesion was necessary to ensure security and economic cohesion. Over time, the growing centralization of authority in Washington eroded the balance of this system and led to fears of ever-expanding executive power, particularly over matters of war.

This consolidation of power made the federal government more assertive and interventionist in its foreign policy, enabling it to project influence globally. Yet US states retain significant rights, functioning in a federated system with distributed powers that allow states to experiment with their own agendas. Among the options available to them are working together to counterbalance federal authority include health care reforms, voting rights, and working together.

American citizens also benefit from strong protections enshrined in the Bill of Rights, which, despite historical flaws in terms of racial and gender equity, established safeguards against government overreach.

However, a hesitance to fully leverage these rights remains, partly due to ignorance. Rights that are intended to advance all citizens, such as the right to bear arms, or judicially decided issues like access to abortion, frequently turn into sources of conflict and are presented as victories for one side as opposed to universal benefits.

This risks turning benefits into partisan battlegrounds, undermining their broader societal purpose. Many of the rights that Americans enjoy were secured by legislative action driven by social movements, not by courts interpreting the Constitution, which shows that the true source of rights is in the collective efforts of citizens and legislators.

US presidents have been generally unable to radically alter the nation’s political system, though the Jacksonian era proves there are exceptions. The two-party system was strengthened, the use of veto power expanded, and centralized executive authority were all the results of Andrew Jackson’s presidency ( 1829–1837 ), which fundamentally altered the role of the presidency.

Jackson, a populist, challenged corrupt elites and the political establishment but also aggravated tensions between the federal and state governments. Democratic participation was increased, but it was only for white men, and led to the substitution of officeholders with individuals loyal to them, with support for the continuation of slavery and the ethnic cleansing of Native Americans.

Concentrating authority away from the executive in a few oversight bodies or enlarged bureaucracy can also backfire, often encouraging corruption rather than transparency. For instance, in the 1970s, legislative changes to campaign finance intended to improve transparency unintentionally led to an increase in lobbying, attack ads, and electoral exploitation.

This shift, intended to curb corporate influence, instead deepened it, allowing corporations and interest groups to find new ways to wield power. While the founding fathers were focused on preventing tyranny through checks and balances, they were unable to anticipate the significant influence that corporate interests would have on political outcomes, leading to the development of a system where legal monetary contributions increasingly predominate policy.

The US faces a major struggle in adapting its republican system to the realities of the 21st century. Executive power has played a key role in addressing significant issues, such as the end of slavery, but it also poses a risk of abuse.

Efforts to forcefully reform republics from the top down, like those seen in Rome, often impose rigid systems that fail to meet society’s evolving needs. On the other hand, overreliance on populist power without the necessary safeguards can lead to impulsive choices and unstable government.

Rejecting populism does not equate to diminishing civic engagement, rather, it calls for more sophisticated participation for constructive political processes. Important power is still in place for Americans, including the right to organize, protest, and use of free speech and association.

Realizing the full potential of these rights and their responsible use requires a deeper understanding of the political system and a commitment to responsible use.

This can be accomplished by gaining knowledge from other nations that support public funding, educate young people, and promote political legitimacy through transparency and participation.

Ignoring the need to address the decline in civic culture and public understanding of the system of government will further weaken the foundation of democratic practices.

Although organizations like the Bipartisan Policy Center have been criticized for being compromised by corporate interests, reforming the US republic is necessary because of this.

Over time, bipartisanship has become entrenched as a long-term alignment in support of big-money interests and an imperialist foreign policy, sidelining efforts for systemic change and diverging sharply from the best aspects of the early US vision.

Contrastingly, many reform advocates advocate for quick fixes rather than lasting solutions, often through partisan lenses, populism, or authoritarian impulses.

Meaningful reform, however, will be a slow and contentious process, and progress will remain elusive without addressing the root causes of major problems and accepting a collective responsibility to solve them.

John P. Ruehl is a world affairs correspondent for the Independent Media Institute and an Australian-American journalist who resides in Washington, DC. He is a contributor to several foreign affairs publications, and his book, Budget Superpower: How Russia Challenges the West With an Economy Smaller Than Texas ‘, was published in December 2022.

This article was written by Human Bridges and republished with permission.

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Southern Thailand’s Hat Yai city centre spared from floods

A road on the outskirts of Hat Yai city in the southern Thai province of Songkhla is seen flooded after two major canals overflowed last month. (Photo: Assawin Pakkawan)
After two significant rivers overflowed last month, a street in the southern Thai state of Songkhla has been spotted to be flooded on the fringes of Hat Yai city. ( Photo: Assawin Pakkawan )

SONGKHLA: Companies have yet to determine the losses incurred by business disruptions caused by the crisis, but Hat Yai’s central business district was largely spared from the floods, which left over four billion ringgit of destruction throughout the state, according to Songkhla’s chamber of commerce.

Songpol Chansiriwathanathamrong, chairman of the country’s chamber of commerce, said the storms that hit the South affected over 540, 000 persons across 533 settlements in the country’s 16 regions.

He claimed that while the room had estimated property damage worth more than four billion baht, losses incurred by temporary business shut downs during the floods have not yet been reported. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

The worst of the flood, which specifically affected people living in rural areas, was largely spared from the central business district in Helmet Yai, he said.

” Up in 2010, the storms paralysed the central business district and caused over 10 billion ringgit of destruction, but this time the region was safe because of Klong Phuminartdamri, which is able to discharge about 1, 200 square feet of water per second from the area”, he said.

The chamber intends to ask the government to impose a 3-3-6-month debt moratorium and grant gentle loans to impacted residents so they can repair their homes and businesses to aid residents in dealing with the effects of the floods, according to Mr. Songpol.

” Without loan repayment suspension, non-performing funding may spike”, he said.

He stated that the tourism industry will collaborate with the Tourism Authority of Thailand ( TAT ) to provide promotions that will increase visitor numbers and boost the economy.

Sitthipong Sitthipataraprapa, president of Hat Yai’s hotels organization, said hospitality and event tickets which would have pulled in 300-400 million baht in earnings were cancelled because of the floods.

He urged the government to take into account property tax reductions for disaster victims and income tax deductions for local employees.

Korakot Tetiranon, chairman of the chambers of commerce in Surat Thani, Chumphon, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Phatthalung and Songkhla, called for reduction measures for small-and-medium-sized companies.

The state needs to act as soon as possible as more heavy rain is forecast to collapse on these counties over the next few days.

According to the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, 664, 173 communities in 87 districts in 10 southern provinces were impacted by the floods, which left 31 people dead between November 22 and December 8?

Although the condition is usually improving, there are still reports of flooding in six regions in Nakhon Si Thammarat, three in Songkhla, and two towns in Pattani. According to the office, rescue personnel and tools like water pumps and removal vehicles are still in use.

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Leftwing populists and far right teamed up to topple French PM – Asia Times

France’s shortest-lived state has fallen in a vote of no confidence triggered by a dispute over now-departing excellent secretary Michel Barnier’s resources.

The far-right Rassemblement National ( RN ) supported the vote in an act that Barnier described as a” conjunction of opposites,” led by the left-wing populists La France Insoumise.

The condition is burial, according to Barnier, and it will only get worse if the government is unstable and the institutions are dysfunctional. As President Emmanuel Macron moves to remove Barnier, all involved, from state to opposition, really consider how they arrived at this scenario.

The political parties of France’s officials ‘ persistent dynamic and majoritarian tendencies caused this issue. They should then take that France’s situation will only be improved by a change in this kind of tradition.

Following his group’s disappointing performance in the European Parliament elections, Macron immediately suspended the National Assembly and called for first parliamentary elections in June.

Competent parties devised a joint strategy to stop it, anticipating that the RN might have won a clear majority in the National Assembly based on its election results in the first round ( where it received 32 % of the vote ). They organized a “republican top,” which brought together center-right, centrist, and far-left legislators.

In the first and second rounds of voting, the alliance’s parties made an electoral pact that allowed one party to withdraw their applicants where it would allow another to avoid the RN from winning the desk.

This technique resulted in the RN narrowly missing being in office for the first time after years of steady help growth. Additionally, it deposed France of a lot and created three roughly equal social clusters in the legislature, each of which could not stand alone.

However, while Macron’s party was content to work with the others to stay the RN from taking office, these noble sentiments vanished when it came to power. Each party’s financial ideology was very various for them to come up with a common ground. Otherwise, the moderates created a minority government, a move that Macron’s moderates made possible by agreeing to abstain from voting in the government’s investiture in order to obstruct its course.

Brinkmanship

The RN, which had become the kingmaker due to the government’s budget approval, continued to exercise its strong dynamic instincts when it faced the current crisis.

To address a colossal public debt and correct a yawning deficit, Barnier’s budget to the parliament was difficult: €60 billion ($ 63.5 billion ) needed to be discovered. To the president’s breaks, it tried to spread the pain consistently ( though not likewise ) across the board through a mix of tax rises and spending cuts.

A compromise would need to be reached between the government and the RN in order for the budget to be passed. But here again, a strict majoritarian logic was at play.

The RN alleged that the government was being kept out of the open and that it wasn’t being heard. In that respect, the RN was correct. Barnier himself proclaimed to be open to conversation but not to bargaining.

The RN drew its red lines and issued its demands, focusing on the measures that would be most immediately felt by voters, knowing that the key to ratifying the budget was to be found. It wished to stop the reintroduction of electricity taxes and make a U-turn on the proposed reductions in medical prescription reimbursements. Additionally, it demanded that pension payments be immediately indexed.

The government conceded, first over the electricity prices, then over prescriptions, until Barnier finally decided that was enough. The government was unable to advance without halting its plans to restructure public spending and without losing face to blackmail.

And this is essentially what the entire exchange was about. The RN’s demands were also a form of repentance for the leftists and a rehashing of its earlier threats to lower the government.

Barnier has a thorough understanding of the game to which he was subjected, and is a seasoned politician. Therefore, he chose to make the vote about the “responsibility of the government” rather than the budget. In order to do this, he cited a constitutional provision that permits the government to pass laws without the approval of the parliamentary majority.

He did this because he knew the opposition parties ‘ only way to stop him would be to hold a confidence vote and to overthrow the government. The RN welcomed the motion, which was brought forward by the left-wing New Popular Front.

Why would Barnier’s plan to obliterate the government in this way? To re-engage the RN and make it confront the risks that its own behavior carries was a constant display of the competitive and majoritarian logic.

What happens next?

The RN now has to navigate the unknown waters that it has pushed the nation. The government has fallen, but fresh elections can’t take place until July. In the interim, a technocratic caretaker government will be in power, causing political stagnation in France.

However, this paralysis has shook the credit markets and caused the French government’s borrowing costs to rise. If the electorate believes it to be responsible, it is a problem for the government, but it is also a problem for the RN.

Many of the RN’s core supporters have an anti-system attitude. Because it is a part of an establishment, they always will be opposed to the government.

But the RN will never win office, and certainly not the presidency, by relying solely on this core base. It needs support from moderate centre-right voters, including those with economically liberal inclinations, who prize economic stability above all. Alienating them is not an option.

As Barnier had intended, the budget dispute has highlighted these internal tensions and harmed the RN’s prospects.

In the hope that Macron can only do so much as resign, the RN’s most likely response is to try to shift the blame back onto the government. Le Pen is waiting in the distance.

Simon Toubeau is an associate professor at the University of Nottingham’s School of Politics and International Relations.

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Yoon’s martial law stunt may cost Korea a lost decade – Asia Times

Yoon Suk Yeol, president of South Korea, set his country’s economy back ten centuries in six days, and increased the chances that the following ten years will be lost.

The government’s urgent request to remove Yoon’s resignation and impeachment for his crazy martial law declaration later on December 3 is the focus at this time. When the dust settles, nevertheless, the actual collateral damage will be to Asia’s fourth-biggest business.

On Monday, the day before Yoon’s determined stunt, South Korea was now carrying serious existing conditions into a 2025 some Seoul policymakers despair. Between China’s decline and Donald Trump’s coming trade conflict, South Korea’s business may find itself in harm’s way first and often.

Record household debts, which is putting strain on consumer spending, complicates the way forward. Additionally, South Korea has a gender pay gap and a labor-intensive workforce that prevents technology.

Korea’s fertility level is the lowest everywhere. A handful of family-owned conglomerates, or chaebols, continue to dominate the market, making it hard for start-ups to grow and destroy the government’s export-driven development model.

And the monetary system needs major changes to end the” Korea cheap” that underestimates Kospi index prices.

Problem is, Yoon’s antics really proved traders doubting Korea’s eagerness for global night right. His government is now even more in the lame-duck area than it was three days ago, also if Yoon can prevent being impeached — a great “if.”

It’s difficult to imagine how Yoon will survive this unless something else is dropping that we haven’t already discovered,” says Eurasia Group scientist Jeremy Chan.

As ideal as we can tell, Yoon’s martial law campaign was motivated by his disappointment with opposition parties that are stymieing his plan. The issue was considerably worsened by Yoon. Hope all-out gridlock today.

This new complication in Seoul elections appeared to be apparent to The Bank of Korea. Straight after Yoon declared martial law, BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong pledged “unlimited cash” to calm industry. On Wednesday, he set up an urgent meeting to discuss how the BOK may protect the market from further political scheming.

” From a near-term plan aspect, apart from the market problems, doubt could also come in the event of government changes”, says Goldman Sachs scientist Goohoon Kwon. On Thursday, Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun resigned.

According to Bank economists, in the best-case situation,” the negative effects to the economy and financial industry may be short-lived as uncertainties on the political and economic environment may be quickly mitigated on the back of strategic policy response.”

However, Moody’s Ratings ‘ economist Anushka Shah adds that a “prolonged period of political conflict that affects economic activity and leads to work stoppages would be credit negative.”

The significance of the Korean victory, both for domestic politics and the external sector, is a key climax. The domestic political unrest will only exacerbate the bearish sentiment surrounding the Korean victory, but Alvin Tan, a currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, believes that the growth slowdown and potential US-China trade war in the coming year will continue to be the main drivers.

A wiser leader than Yoon might have examined his mediocre approval rating and adjusted his policies accordingly. Or create new ones that might appeal to voters and opposition parties. Instead, Yoon threw a tantrum, leaving many of Korea’s 51 million people wondering if Yoon’s support rate is way too high.

Yoon also spewed a dose of Trumpian skepticism by warning of “anti-state” militias sympathetic to North Korea’s plot against him. Not a wise choice from a leader who makes Shigeru Ishiba and Joe Biden the most well-known Americans in the world right now.

This was” an act of political desperation”, Chan says. ” It wasn’t about North Korea or social order — despite Yoon’s claims”. In the end, Chan adds, Yoon was” trying to bring all legislative proceedings to a halt” by calling on the National Assembly.

The issue is that South Korea’s government functions are squandering up at arguably the worst possible time. Along with China exporting deflation, Seoul is bracing for US President-elect Trump’s coming tariffs. Trump has threatened that the 60 % tariffs against China could be the start of a global arms race.

Trump has telegraphed 100 % taxes on automobiles made in Mexico. Car-making giants in Korea and Japan worry — for valid reasons — that they’re next.

Concerned about the fates of Hyundai, Kia and others, Yoon has been scrambling for a meeting with Trump. In a bid to get a Mar-a-Lago tee time, Yoon dusted off his golf clubs for the first time in eight years.

Yoon’s government even hired the lobbying firm Susie Wiles, the incoming White House chief of staff, worked for. The Washington embassy of Korea hired Mercury Public Affairs to build connections with the incoming White House, according to Korean media.

Trump, of course, is less of a bridge-builder than a geopolitical wrecking ball. Still, Yoon has studied up on former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Trump bromance.

Abe became the first world leader to hurl a long way to New York’s Trump Tower to kiss the ring in November 2016. The stunt also caused Abe to sit next to Trump at Group of Seven meetings and other global confabs, earning him a spot there.

If Yoon looked closer, he’d see how little the late Abe got in return for his subservience. Trump ignored Abe’s pleas and still abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, a cornerstone of Japan’s effort to contain China.

Abe’s acquiescence didn’t earn Tokyo a pass on the Trump 1.0 trade war. Trump continued to try to shake down Abe for US$ 8 billion in annual payments to keep American troop levels in Japan. It didn’t stop Trump from palling around with Kim Jong Un, legitimizing North Korea’s murderous regime at the expense of Japan‘s national security.

Yet Trump 2.0 is just one of South Korea’s biggest economic challenges. The other is how the economy is bouncing off course because of its already-existing circumstances.

The first half of Yoon’s five-year term did little to raise Korea’s economic game. He’s done little, if anything, to level playing fields to help small-and-medium-sized companies grow into larger ones.

He hasn’t made any discernible progress in lowering the nation’s crippling debt, increasing worker productivity, empowering women, and raising the average income.

Yoon hasn’t been able to dispel MSCI’s reservations about Korea Inc. Yoon argued in a uniquely assertive way earlier this year that the world’s largest index company should establish South Korea as a developed nation, a designation that would entice tidal waves of global capital into won-denominated assets.

Back in March, Yoon pledged to scrap outdated regulations, loosen limits on corporate ownership, strengthen capital markets, increase currency-trading hours, boost transparency and even tolerate short sellers.

MSCI went away unimpressed. According to its analysts,” these efforts will be subject to consultation with market participants once in effect,” as they stated in June. In other words, Team Yoon needs to carry out the Big Bang without resorting to a supply-side explanation.

Unfortunately, Yoon is only the most recent leader to talk a lot of money-savings and talk little. Like his five predecessors over the last 20 years, Yoon quickly realized the difficulty and risk of clashing with Korea’s chaebol-industrial complex and demurred.

This persistent complacency comes at a high price. In any tally of major economies courting a&nbsp, Japan-like lost decade&nbsp, through complacency and political distraction, &nbsp, South Korea&nbsp, deserves a primary place. Yoon, part of this sad continuum, also let the BOK run the show.

So did Moon Jae-in, who was elected in 2017 to restore faith in the Korean economy. Moon began with a bold plan to champion” trickle-up economics”. Higher corporate taxes were included in the plan to better distribute wealth and employment opportunities.

The strategy spearheaded by Margaret Thatcher, Ronald Reagan, and Abe decades earlier had a reversed impact due to Moon’s emphasis on enriching the middle class. Yet Moon, too, saw the magnitude of the task of taming Korea Inc&nbsp, &nbsp, — and he backed off.

The same was true for Park Geun-hye, president from 2013 to 2017. Not only was she Korea’s first female president, but also the daughter of former national leader Park Chung-hee, who built the chaebol-led model that still dominates today back in the 1960s and 1970s.

Park Geun-hye took office with grand plans to dismantle her father’s economic system. She talked of devising a more” creative” model of entrepreneurship and shifting&nbsp, tax incentives&nbsp, toward startups.

Park planned, too, to strengthen antitrust enforcement&nbsp, and penalize big companies for hoarding profits that could be used to boost paychecks and fund new cutting-edge research and development.

Her father’s export-driven development strategy placed a premium on loans to domestic businesses and shielded domestic industries from global competition. The strategy borrowed from the” Asian tigers” playbook Japan had written.

Of course, Park Chung-hee’s legacy is back in the news this week. The upheaval that occurred at the time of his 1979 murder occurred at the same time as a previous declaration of martial law.

Over time, Korean officialdom was captured by the home-growth giants Park&nbsp, Chung-hee’s policies created. But once daughter Park Geun-hye settled into the presidential Blue House, 38 years after her father’s assassination, she too decided change was too difficult and risky.

Rather than upending the chaebol system, Park got co-opted. By 2017, she was &nbsp, impeached and jailed&nbsp, in a scandal involving Samsung leader Lee Jae-yong. Both have since been pardoned, much to the dismay of many Korean voters.

Before Park, Lee&nbsp, Myung-bak, president from 2008 to 2013, &nbsp, pledged to generate more economic energy from the ground up. Voters hoped that, as a former CEO of Hyundai Engineering&nbsp, and Construction, Lee had the know-how to shift growth engines away from exports toward domestic demand. Lee demurred, siding with the chaebols that produced him.

If only these leaders had swayed the wind in a significant way, Korea might not be struggling to raise its prices and compete in the era of China. Even if Yoon manages to cling to power, somehow, his odds of elevating the economy to greater heights in the 887 days he’d have left in office are slight, at best.

What Yoon has accomplished is placing South Korea in the shoes of Asian martial law enforcers in a manner that international investors won’t find appealing. These include Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand – and now South Korea.

Yoon reassured markets about the Korean discount while also bringing up a past Kospi investors would prefer not to think about, such as 1948 martial law episodes.

One silver lining:” The swift reversal of the martial law underscores the resilience of South Korea’s institutions”, write analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company.

We anticipate only temporary effects for the economy and financial markets as the Bank of Korea and the Ministry of Finance have responded quickly by reassuring investors, according to BNI. Notably, the central bank has pledged to increase short-term liquidity and take steps to stabilize the FX markets, which is in line with our opinion that the risks associated with the South Korean victory should be kept under control for the time being.

Perhaps, but the effects of Yoon’s insane and selfish act may make South Korea worry about where and how all that potential was lost in a decade.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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COP29’s new climate finance deal: Will India and China step up? – Asia Times

India and China, the country’s two most popular nations, are key to international environment efforts. They make up over a third of the international community as a whole, and they tremendously increase global pollution. As significant economies and emerging market leaders, their actions may have a significant impact on achieving or preventing international climate goals.

This reality was highlighted by the recent 29th Conference of the Parties ( COP29 ) in Azerbaijan, which was a significant advance in the global climate agenda. Countries converged to set a more ambitious climate finance target, which would accelerate action on pollution and adaptation, after key agreements were reached to promote climate action at the summit, known as the” climate finance COP.”

The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), which will remove the US$ 100 billion goal that is pending, and commit to organizing US$ 300 billion yearly for developing nations by 2035, was a crucial result.

Nevertheless, the NCQG falls little of the US$ 1.3 trillion goal that developing nations had advocated for, and even that figure may not be sufficient to meet their climate financing needs.

Important questions remain: Who will make the expenses? Does the money remain in the form of grants, concessional funding, or private field loans? And, crucially, how will these tools be allocated and distributed? For the NCQG to really work, these difficulties must get addressed.

Major effects will be had by the new agreement for both China and India. As main players in this environment financing commitment, their contributions, alongside international support, may be crucial in determining whether the world can match its climate objectives.

India is a key emerging economy that struggles to strike a balance between achieving climate goals and achieving financial growth and reducing poverty. India’s need for more climate finance was highlighted by current COP29 discussions as a result of its need for a low-carbon business.

New Delhi has much argued that developed countries, which account for the majority of traditional pollution and have experienced higher levels of economic growth, may bear a larger share of the fiscal load. India has made significant progress in renewable energy, setting a lofty goal of 500 gigawatts ( GW ) of non-fossil fuel-based energy by 2030, but it still faces significant challenges in implementing these initiatives without substantial financial and technological support.

Hope is provided by the NCQG’s commitment to raising US$ 300 billion annually for developing nations. However, India’s request for more significant climate fund is still unheeded.

India’s strategy to weather motion is essentially linked to its growth priorities. India is ranked 10th in the most recent Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), with a relatively low per capita emissions of 2.9 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2 ), which is significantly lower than the global average of 6.6 tCO2. This ranking reflects India’s vigilant climate policies, which demonstrate that green growth is possible even for developing nations.

India has, however, constantly emphasized that climate finance should not have constrained by factors like green standards or policy restrictions that might impair its ability to grow economically. The important issue facing New Delhi may be balancing its development needs with its commitments to the environment, making sure that financial aid is both fair and clear.

China, for its part, has also faced investigation. China’s inappropriate contributions to climate financing at COP29 were subject to intense scrutiny. Its monetary commitment to international climate action is increasingly seen as a decisive test of its authority on the international level because it is the world’s largest emission.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, weather fund responsibility falls on developed countries due to their historical pollution. But, negotiators are increasingly urging China to play a bigger economic part.

China maintains its position as a developing nation and opposes mandated contributions, but its deliberate pledges have raised questions about their commitment, setting the stage for further discussion of China’s financial responsibility in international climate actions.

Critics argue that China’s rising world influence, its powerful technological capacity and its reputation as the country’s largest greenhouse gas emitter&nbsp, involve greater role in addressing climate change. China’s position in climate finance will be under increased scrutiny as the pressure mounts against it, especially if Beijing wants to exert greater influence in shaping international climate politics.

Since 2016, China has committed over US$ 24.5 billion in climate financing to developing countries, according to Chinese leaders. Monthly efforts are thought to be around US$ 4 billion, which is around 5 % of what developed nations contribute. While important, it also falls short of the US$ 100 billion annual goal for developed countries, a duty China has yet to join.

China has emerged as a significant person in climate financing, but it does so on its own terms and outside the conventional United Nations construction. Importantly, a significant portion of its monetary contributions are in the form of loans rather than grants, which raises questions about the potential debt burdens of the recipient countries over the long term and the potential viability of the project.

As China’s geopolitical and economic power grows, its climate finance plan will be under increasing pressure, especially as demands for greater accountability and stronger commitments grow.

COP29 set a crucial step with the NCQG. The meeting made clear that India and China are crucial in funding international climate action. Both nations may then set the example. After all, their actions may shape the future of climate politics and international conservation.

Neeraj Singh Manhas is the Republic of Korea’s Parley Policy Initiative’s special assistant for South Asia. He recently held the position of Research Director for the Indo-Pacific Consortium at Raisina House in New Delhi.

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Flood victims to get cash aid

Flood victims are evacuated from their residence in Sungai Kolok district, Narathiwat, on Nov 27. (Photo: Royal Thai Navy)
Flood victims are evacuated from their residence in Sungai Kolok district, Narathiwat, on Nov 27. (Photo: Royal Thai Navy)

Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said the government intends to compensate every household affected by flooding in the South with 9,000 baht in a similar fashion to payouts made to those recently affected by floods in the North.

Mr Anutin, also the Interior Minister, said the flood situation should improve as weather forecasters predict a decrease in rainfall from now on.

Local authorities are assessing the damage, both to people’s houses and public utilities in areas where the water has caused damage.

He said the government has approved 70 million baht for emergency use in flooded provinces.

The Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) is also coordinating with local authorities in what were declared official disaster areas. “In principle, the payment of 9,000 baht per household should be applied to the South just as it was for those hit by floods in the North,” he said.

Then the money will be transferred directly to the accounts of each flood victim if the measure is approved by the cabinet.

Phatsakorn Bunyalak, DDPM director-general, said the heavy downpours that began on Thursday have resulted the worst flooding seen in the South in decades.

The flood inundated 640,581 homes in 87 districts across 10 provinces and claimed the lives of 12 people, he said. Townships were underwater and locals stranded.

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra will visit flood victims in Songkhla and Pattani on Friday and has ordered Prommin Lertsuridej, the PM’s secretary-general, to expedite assistance.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance will order state financial institutions including the Government Savings Bank to offer 50 billion baht in soft loans with favourable interest rates to help people and businesses affected by the floods get back on their feet, said the Ministry permanent secretary Lavaron Sangsnit.

There will also be other debt relief measures, interest rate reductions and repayment extensions, he added.

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