Age restriction angers health volunteers

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fresh law making them have to “retire” at age 70.

PUBLISHED: 9 Jul 2024 at 05: 04

Age restriction angers health volunteers
Community health workers are present at the Ministry of Public Health’s annual National Community Health Workers Day on March 20 in Bangkok. ( Photo: Pattarapong Chatpattarasill )

A bill sponsored by the Public Health Ministry did demand village health volunteers to “retire” at the age of 70, which is opposed by local health volunteers across the nation.

The bill, which will be debated online until July 11 and replaces the current longtime term of health volunteers, aims to reduce the age of the volunteers.

Some in Khon Kaen say it cruel to health participants who have spent decades doing the job without any financial assistance, while others in the northern county of Chiang Mai program to send a text opposing the time limit to the provincial government.

The village health volunteer bill, in the eyes of the Department of Health Service Support ( DHSS), aims to promote the development of their skills and promote family and community health, acknowledge their status, and ensure they receive adequate benefits.

A section headed by the permanent secretary of public health may be established in accordance with the proposed legislation to support and promote the work of health volunteers, and a fund may be established to help them.

One million health participants are active in the advancement of health surveillance at the family and community levels.

The proposed time control, according to Khon Kaen health charity Ketsarin Saengsawat, is unfair to older persons who volunteered to work before the state agreed to give them a monthly income.

” If the time limit applies to new individuals, that’s appropriate. However, she said,” the existing ones may be allowed to work until they die or withdraw.”

She also noted that the job has grown in popularity in recent years thanks to a rise in the death happiness account from 150, 000 to 540, 000 baht.

Another health charity in Khon Kaen, Ura Prapmontri, claimed that some health volunteers have adapted well to the increased use of modern technology. Nevertheless, she said if the state is to create an age limit, 80 may be better.

” If they are forced to retire, we’ll fight this unfairness. Beneficiaries of the regular income are those who depend on it. The volume can help with their family expenses and debts payments”, she said.

The Ministry of Public Health spokeswoman Treechada Srithada said the age restriction wo n’t apply to health volunteers who work before the law becomes law. They are required to file one year after the legislation actually becomes effective, she continued.

She urged them to provide their views now that the legislation is up for public hearings, stating that their views may be taken into account when it is modified before being submitted to the government.

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Urgent need for much more stimulus from Beijing – Asia Times

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The intensity for farther, strong stimulus steps from Beijing has never been more prominent. &nbsp,

China has a disconcertingly low inflation rate, with the Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) showing a mere 0.3 % increase year over year, in contrast to the high inflation that grips the US and Europe. This sluggish growth reflects a pervasive negative threat that, if not addressed right away, could destroy economic stability.

The continuing crisis in China’s real estate sector is a significant factor contributing to its economic troubles. &nbsp, When a strong growth website, the business is still beset by high debt levels among property developers, leading to a strong contraction in construction activities. &nbsp,

Chinese home prices dropped last month to record lows in the country’s economy, indicating that Beijing’s “historic” true land recovery has not yet had the desired impact.

This decline has had, and continues to own, significantly- reaching implications, curtailing purchase, increasing poverty and eroding customer confidence. &nbsp,

According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, property investment for the first five months of the year decreased 10.1 % from the previous year. New home sales fell 28 % during the same period.

Due to the instability of the housing market, Beijing must take a specific and more effective support strategy to engage. This could lead to additional spillovers into other areas of the market.

Another pressing problem is the weak home need. Despite numerous efforts to increase spending, Chinese buyers are still mindful, and household consumption has never returned to pre-crisis levels. &nbsp,

This slowing down of demand is a major drag on economic development, and it highlights the need for measures to enhance consumer confidence and spending power. &nbsp,

Further measures such as direct subsidies, tax incentives and support for small and medium- sized enterprises ( SMEs ) would help revitalize domestic consumption.

While current industry information may appear urging, with exports outpacing imports for the past two months, these figures face underlying issues. &nbsp,

The obvious export growth is largely driven by a small basic effect, which makes the current figures appear better in comparison to the decline of the previous year. &nbsp,

Also, the surge in worldwide demand that has benefited China’s export may not be sustainable, particularly if other major markets begin to slow down. So, relying on trade performance as a sign of economic wellbeing may be misleading.

Given these issues, the justification for improved stimulus from Beijing is powerful. Enhancing monetary and fiscal policies would give the economy the needed boost. &nbsp,

Targeted steps to help the real estate sector, such as easing funds conditions for homebuyers and developers, may help regulate this vital industry. Also, domestic desire must be fueled by policies that increase consumer confidence and household income.

In addition to quick stimulus measures, Beijing probably needs to focus on lengthy- term tactical investments in infrastructure, technology and natural energy. &nbsp,

These investments may help to lay the foundation for long-term economic development in addition to providing a quick boost to the economy. China is cut down on its emphasis on exports and real estate, thereby creating a more balanced and tenacious economic model by concentrating on areas with high-growth potential.

To repeat, the Women’s Republic’s economic condition requires immediate and significant activity. &nbsp, Failure to act quickly and sufficiently may have grave consequences for China’s economy. &nbsp,

Inaction could lead to further financial unrest, undermine trust in Chinese financial businesses, and lead to a potential global economic downturn with serious consequences. Prompt, powerful treatment is essential to minimize these outcomes.

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The irrelevance of Biden’s senility – Asia Times

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We are better off knowing neither the way our supper is made nor the way our government operates, according to a trite old saying. &nbsp,

Although its best-known form, which compares the doing of regulations to the making of meatballs, is frequently mistaken as Otto von Bismarck, the clever noble-born director of the Jacobin Club who had committed suicide more than endured a second prison under Robespierre, it appears to have first been printed in 1798.

Prior to the development of radio or television, the saying expressed gratitude for a fact: Some people in the country had already slaughtered and butcheted their own meat and worked in the fields that produced the grain for their bread. &nbsp,  

Some people heard their leaders speak for extended periods of time on symbolic occasions or heard them speak for it. Some people who had not been thoroughly published and prepared speeches or works by their rulers.

The internal workings of Elizabeth Tudor’s royal council, of Talleyrand’s or Metternich’s foreign government, of Abraham Lincoln’s government, or of Bismarck’s court, were largely unknown to the public until decades or centuries later.

Rulers were loved or despised, and they remained or fell based on the standard of management that they provided, not the standard bacon. They were chosen based solely on their laws ‘ suitability and outcomes, not on any individual traits. Having bonuses to govern effectively, they typically did so.

How illiterate was George Washington by 1797, when he ceased serving as president of the United States at the age of 65? According to the data currently available, he may have been significantly less strong in his second term than he was in his first.

Some of his people then knew that and most of them supported his state for its plans, which were generally formulated and executed by officials, notably Alexander Hamilton.

How egotistical was Pyotr I Alekseyevich, the Prince of All Russia from 1721 to his death in 1725, the ruler of Muscovy from 1682 to 1721? By any common, really, really. &nbsp, Yet he governed thus successfully that Russians have remembered him as Peter the Great and their subsequent- biggest town bears his title.

In essence, a leader’s personal character and mentality were irrelevant from the beginning of the century in that they only had an impact on the guidelines he or she pursued or the level of leadership they delivered. &nbsp,  

Rise and fall of political babysitting

When our leaders were able to appear on television in our houses to comfort us whenever any common apprehension occurred, all changed.

Even though a president cannot stop natural disasters and preventing and punishing crime is the responsibility of local institutions, not the federal government, he is widely and publicly mocked for not traveling to the page of a natural disaster to console its subjects or to provide apologies to the victims of a much-publicized crime. &nbsp,

During the Great Depression, Franklin Roosevelt honed the art of public nannying through radio during times when, admittedly, Americans needed a little nannying. &nbsp,

In the age of television, our rulers have developed that art to include visual appearance. They assiduously steer clear of the error widely believed to have cost Richard Nixon the 1960 US presidential election, namely that they did n’t use enough makeup for the first of his nationally televised debates against John Kennedy, which was the first of its kind to take place in the US.

After their first of four presidential debates at a television studio in Chicago, Illinois, on September 26, 1960, Senator John F. Kennedy, left, and then-Vice President Richard M. Nixon are shown following their nationally televised first of four presidential debates. Photo: Wikimedia Commons / AP

Many of us now hear and see our rulers, just as we do family and friends, and we need to know more about them. Many of us even place the expectation that our rulers will act best for us as though we are dating or having an affair with them.

This development is more pronounced in the US, where the president is both head of government and head of state, than in other Western countries where the head of government is not head of state. A US president can now and frequently does so to try to win votes from his or her head of state functions. &nbsp,

Consequently, the advent of radio and television led to an expansion of the president’s head- of- state functions into public and publicized comforting, consoling, reassuring and ego- boosting – functions largely outside the purview of the presidency as recently as a century ago.

However, it appears as though the growing level of political conflict in the US has recently caused voters to care less about a president’s personality, appearance, or mental fortitude in relation to his policies.

Biden’s pointless senility

Since years before the nationally- televised Biden- Trump debate of June 27, 2024, it has been obvious, to anyone who has paid even a little attention to US public affairs, not only that Biden is increasingly senile but also that his performance of presidential functions has been directed by or through advisors and handlers with deliberately low public profiles.

That is simply irrelevant for any American who, in spite of decades of systematic political infantilization, does not need a personal relationship with a nannying president. What matters is the level of governance that the Biden administration has provided over the past four years, as well as the appropriateness or outcomes of the policies it has proposed or pursued. &nbsp,

If Biden is re-elected, similar governance and policies can be anticipated, whichever comes first, until his death or the end of his second term.

Whatever interests are currently in charge of Biden will continue to rule him if he is re-elected, either through the same advisors and handlers or by someone else of their choosing. That is true regardless of who those advisors and handlers may be. Their identities and particular roles are unimportant.

In the recently released second half of Denis Villeneuve’s film adaptation of Frank Herbert’s 1965 sci-fi novel” Dune,” the high priestess of a cult who covertly spies on a galactic empire to install as emperor a young man who is all-knowing to be psychopath. &nbsp,

She explains to one of her protégé priestesses that the key is not whether this prospective emperor is a psychopath or not, but that the high priestess knows how to control him.

There is abundant evidence that Biden can be controlled, and how much he has been controlled and will continue to be controlled if re-elected. &nbsp, His senility, like the psychopathy of the prospective emperor in” Dune”, is immaterial.

Trump’s egomania is so irrelevant.

Donald Trump’s egomania is no less irrelevant for any American who has not been raised with the idea of a personal relationship with the president. Trump has unabashedly displayed his egomania to the American public for half a century. Even before 2016, a description of its numerous public manifestations could fill a book.

However, Trump did a remarkable job of turning the Republican Party from a fat cats ‘ party into a socially conservative populist party when he won the nomination in 2016. He was also elected president.

Policies that a second Trump administration will implement are comparable to those of a second Biden administration. Trump tried more than any other president in the history of his first administration to keep his campaign promises.

There is no reason to think that he will not do so again and his 2024 campaign promises are both candid and similar to his 2016 and 2020 campaign promises. Although the majority of Trump supporters are aware of his flaws, they are also impressed by his policies and rhetoric. &nbsp,

Donald Trump sees migrants as a threat to “real” Americans. Screengrab image:

Trump uses facts in ways that no one else who could get a significant hearing before 2016 was willing to share. One such truth is that America’s ruling elites, abetted by academia, the media and the federal bureaucracy, have impoverished American workers by their ceaseless quest for access to cheap foreign labor through free trade with poor countries and immigration from poor countries.

Other examples of such truths include the notion that social justice is not merely or even primarily based on race, gender, or sexual preference, that there are many different genders of people, that white skin does not necessarily make one evil, and that excluding Muslims from the US is a less expensive, more compassionate, and more effective way to stop Islamist violence than annexing Muslim nations.

Additionally, Trump’s actions during his first year of office were incredibly in line with his campaign rhetoric. Lest we forget: Franklin Roosevelt, in his 1932 campaign, promised to balance the federal budget, Lyndon Johnson, in 1964, promised not to send US troops to Vietnam, and Bill Clinton, in 1992, vehemently opposed free trade with China. Each of them did the disproportional thing that he had preached. Trump did n’t do that.

Why character and mental acuity now matter less

Advocates of electing a president based solely on personal characteristics point to the necessity of good character and mental fortitude in an unforeseen crisis. Do you want a senile dotard’s finger or an egomaniac’s finger on the nuclear trigger, as they frequently mention the possibility of a nuclear war?

However, an egomaniac’s finger was on the nuclear trigger for four years during which relations with other nuclear- armed countries were never allowed to become so bad as to threaten nuclear war. &nbsp,

For the past four years, a more senile dotard’s finger has been on the nuclear trigger, with the first major war in Europe since 1945 breaking out. Relations with both Russia and China have deteriorated, but the chance of a nuclear war has remained undetermined. &nbsp,  

A president is also subject to a number of restrictions that prevent him from starting a nuclear war out of egotism or senility. General Mark Milley’s insubordinate but never-punished actions as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff limited then-president Trump’s nuclear options from late October 2020 through January 2021 illustrate that. &nbsp,

The 25th Amendment to the US Constitution has a potential use, among other things, to prevent a president from using nuclear weapons without justification.

The constraints on a senile or egomaniacal president might be weaker, and his mental acuity and character might matter more, but that is uncertain, as are all aspects of unknown and unforeseeable contingencies.

A president’s character and mental acuity may seem to matter less when perceived problems are chronically worsening and threaten to become critical than when potentially grave problems are sporadic but frequent. &nbsp,

The Berlin crises, the Korean War, and the Cuban missile crisis, all of which threatened nuclear war, were a sporadic but frequent, potentially grave issues that the Cold War had. Under those conditions, a president’s character and mental acuity seemed to matter greatly. &nbsp,

However, Robert Kennedy’s restraint of his brother’s bellicosity, which was the most severe of those crises, the Cuban missile crisis, prevented nuclear war.

America’s perceived issues have been chronically worsening in recent years and now threaten to become critical. The country’s biggest issue is the decade-long expansion of populism, according to the ruling elites, academia, the media, and the federal bureaucracy, according to the ruling elites and academic community. &nbsp,

The greatest issues for populists are decades-long impoverishment of the working class caused by free trade and immigration to provide cheap labor for the rich to employ, decades-long and worsening cultural decay, decades-long growth of federal government debt that threatens to cripple, decades-long ideologization of all institutions, and decades-long growing intolerance and demonization of dissent from an ideology that only defines social justice in terms of race, gender, and sexual preference and is unconcerned with inequality

Populists believe that democracy has been in decline for decades, but they also believe it is deteriorating. They perceive the ruling elites as resorting since 2016 to increasingly undemocratic means in order to curtail the populist threat to their interests and expect them to continue to do so.

A president’s character and mental acuity do n’t matter as much in these circumstances as they did during the Cold War. And American voters are much more adept at understanding this than their politicians and experts.

Despite the panic of Democratic Party politicians and pro- Democratic media since the June 27 debate displayed the extent of Biden’s senility, neither Biden’s job approval rating nor the proportion of voters planning to vote for him seems to have dropped more than about two percentage points as of July 6.

Additionally, as memory of that debate fades, the erosion of Biden’s support is likely to diminish as other highly publicized events bring it into focus.

As new events start to dominate the news media, Biden’s debate performance will become less significant. Image: CNN Screengrab

Similar to how the majority of media pundits and the numerous politicians from both parties who had opined that Trump had no chance of winning the presidency were misled by voters in November 2016 after The Washington Post released a transcript of a 2005 recording in which he admitted to telling a TV show host that he did” try and f*ck” a married woman before appearing on his show and that “women ] let you do anything.” Just grab them by the p*ssy, please.

Admittedly, pollsters report that a minority of Americans, many of them young, claim to be unwilling to vote for Biden because he’s too old, and that another minority of US voters, many of them college- educated women, claim to be unwilling to vote for Trump because he’s too nasty.

However, for the majority of Americans, the political conflict between the nation’s ruling elites and populists who want to end those elites ‘ political and cultural dominance has grown so much that it is no longer necessary to have a kind, attractive, comforting, and ego-stoking ruler on the boob tube. &nbsp,

The battle lines have been drawn and most Americans will choose a side based on considerations more compelling than which side offers the better nanny.

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Parnpree urges economic rejig

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PUBLISHED: 6 Jul 2024 at 04: 20

Parnpree urges economic rejig
Parnpree: ‘ Reduce home bill ‘

Parnpree Bahiddha- Nukara, a previous deputy prime minister, has suggested that the government restructure the market and take lessons from its rivals to help Thailand advance in the current slowdown.

Mr Parnpree, a former foreign minister, gave a presentation on Thailand’s financial course at the 27th memorial function of the National Press Council on Thursday.

Due to the “hypersensitive” nature of the Thai market as a result of both the delicate state of local politics and world hostilities, Mr. Parnpree said such reform is necessary.

Financial challenges and uncertainty were brought on by political crises over the past 15 years, he claimed, and digital disruptions were a result of this.

” Any missteps by the state can lead to severe financial crises, like what we have now,” he continued.” All of these factors caused the local economy to shift.

More efforts are required, according to Mr. Parnpree, to boost exports and funding while reducing public and private loan.

He claimed that Thailand relied on exports and foreign investment to generate at least 70 % of the country’s money, but that private investment alone was insufficient to stimulate the economy.

However, a decrease in trade growth has caused GDP to grow at its lowest degree.

The International Monetary Fund ( IMF) expects this year’s growth may be 2.2- 2.7 %, the lowest among developing East Asian countries, Mr Parnpree said.

With public debt skyrocketing, over 91 % of households are likely to be in debt by the end of this year, he said.

He claimed that given a strong government plan to boost the business, Thailand is comparatively unaffected by political unrest and volatility compared to many other Indochina countries.

According to Mr. Parnpree, the lack of ongoing monetary growth suggests that the government needs to develop more policies to support standard businesses, among other things.

He remarked that it is necessary to alter the financial system right away before it is too late.

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Which will mess up the most – Fed, BOJ or PBOC? – Asia Times

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Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, may be spared a thought if anyone is currently despising their work. Owners can see how unsure Chairman Powell is regarding the US interest rate trend in real time.

The former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers ‘ claim that the Fed’s subsequent step will be to strengthen, not simplicity, has sparked a wave of ire among investors. The Fed’s issue is not humored by the dollar’s soaring inflation rate, the dollar’s soars, and US electioneering becoming a laughingstock.

Summers is still a dreamer, according to numerous well-known academics. Among them is Mark Zandi, chief analyst at Moody’s Analytics.

” The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates – now”, Zandi argues. ” The main bank’s present higher- for- longer interest rate plan – firmly holding the&nbsp, <a href="https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS&data=05|02||e36ed482867343af9d8d08dc9b7d5bbc|84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa|1|0|638556209932965310|Unknown|TWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0=|0|||&sdata=rjCCqmnH9a6hcIVdmcYS4IKKF67S/NZSqlJE2cDhhmI=&reserved=0″ target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener”>federal funds rate that ‘s&nbsp, immediately controlled by the Fed at a higher 5.5 % – threatens to destroy the business“.

Bill Dudley, former chairman of the Fed Bank of New York, thinks that would be a miscalculation. ” Maybe the Fed’s slogan, instead of ‘ higher for longer,’ if be’ higher continuously’ until inflation moves more persuasively in the desired direction”, Dudley wrote on Bloomberg.

Not just one central bank is in danger of making a major policy mistake, according to the Fed. In addition, the People’s Bank of China and the Bank of Japan may need some major explanations in the coming year for mistakes made today.

For instance, the BOJ has almost surely run out of time to stop quantitative easing and stabilize interest rates. Since taking over the board in April 2023, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has seized every chance to change its mind to a less flexible coverage.

Then, as Japan’s economy deals – by 2.9 % in the first quarter year on year – and inflation surpasses wage growth, it’s an open question whether any climb costs will come in 2024.

As the BOJ flounders, the yen is extending its decline – over 15 % so far this year – in ways that could destroy world businesses. Another important Asian nations may experience declines in exchange rates as a result. And it might make Asia nervous to watch out for before the November US vote.

The BOJ was possibly mess up in both directions. Applying the brakes too quickly may exacerbate the yen’s surge and slam the economy into recession. Act very gently, and Japan will soon become even more entangled in the QE sand, making exiting it even more difficult.

The PBOC must perform a challenging juggling work of its own. Governor Pan Gongsheng has been slower to lower saving costs as Asia’s largest economy slows. Some economists worry that this precaution conflicts with worries about the slowing of economic development.

In June, for example, coast service action grew at the slowest rate in eight weeks. A weaker-than-expected 51.2, compared to 554 in May, was the Caixin China service purchasing managers ‘ indicator.

These data raise concerns that strong export growth is n’t translating into stronger domestic demand. Despite authorities efforts to stabilize the condition, China’s home crisis continues to ponder on growth.

Wang Zhe, an economist at Caixin Insight Group, claims that” the progress speed weakened compared to May.” The business was under tension, the “market was concerned.”

President Xi Jinping’s desire to avoid punishing poor banking decisions or reinflating asset bubbles is one factor making Pan reluctant to lower prices. Xi’s Communist Party really allowed for burst of stimulus. However, the PBOC has been far less confrontational than during earlier slowdowns.

What’s different this time is recession. As China ‘s&nbsp, home crisis&nbsp, deepens and its overcapacity woes enhance, some economists worry authorities risk letting this poor- price active take on a life of its own. Xi’s party loathes the Japan comparisons so often leveled Beijing’s way.

People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng faces a deflation dilemma. Image: Twitter Screengrab

Of course, fears about Chinese overcapacity could be overdone. Many economists argue that unfair trade practices and increased production results are the cause of the country’s export success right now.

However, the US Fed may be the one who is most likely to make a significant policy mistake.

In its extreme focus on inflation, the Powell- led Fed risks ignoring dislocations in credit markets. Not of the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis variety but of a magnitude the Fed’s “higher for longer” yield policy may exacerbate.

Granted, economic conditions have n’t gone to plan as employment growth and wages outpace even the most optimistic forecasts. In May, consumer prices grew at a 2.6 % annual rate. Though coming down toward the Fed’s 2 % target, policymakers are n’t ready to declare victory.

We simply want to make sure that the levels we’re seeing reflect actual inflation, Powell said on Tuesday ( July 2 ).

Last week, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, cautioned it’s “hard to know if we are truly on track to sustainable price stability”.

The issue is that the Fed may be supporting the wrong side of the trade-off it faces. Many of the upward pressures on costs are coming from the supply side, post- Covid- 19 pandemic. Government actions to boost domestic productivity and capacity, rather than tighter credit, are more effective at addressing these trends.

The US dollar is rising in ways that are making Asia’s year more difficult and putting strains on the US commercial property sector as the Fed decides a course of action. In the wake of Covid, and the work- from- home boom it unleashed, empty skyscrapers seem sure to be America’s next financial reckoning.

Medium- size banks, meanwhile, are still reeling from the Fed’s failure to cut rates. Back in January, Powell’s team was seen easing between five and seven times in 2024. Now, some fear the higher- yield era is poised to be as indefinite as Japan’s zero- rate period.

The risk posed by high yields is illustrated by the speed with which the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in the early 2023 global markets erupted. That goes, too, for undermining the economy.

Many are taking a wait- and- see approach. &nbsp,” When you have economic growth at a pace under 2 %, that can be considered’ stall speed,'” says strategist Rob Haworth at US Bank Wealth Management. ” But we’re still seeing solid&nbsp, consumer activity, which has been the most important factor driving the economy to this point”.

But Mohamed El- Erian, president of Queens ‘ College, Cambridge, argues the US is” slowing faster than most economists expect and faster than what the Fed expected”. This “excessively data- dependent” Fed team risks keeping borrowing costs” too high for too long”.

The dollar’s “wrecking ball” tendencies, meanwhile, are shaking up global markets. It’s hoovering up outsized waves of global capital, disadvantaging emerging economies in particular. Political polarization in Washington, meanwhile, does n’t augur well for capping the dollar’s rally.

” In a divided government, there’s less ability to pass a lot of meaningful fiscal measures”, notes strategist Kamakshya Trivedi at Goldman Sachs. ” It’s fair to say that trade policies and fiscal expansion policies will be up for debate and possibly put into action for this particular election. In addition, the rest of the world faces a real risk of managing an even stronger dollar as a result.

The outlook was further muddied by US President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump. Trump’s chances of winning the White House appear to be higher than ever.

Analysts at ING Bank write in a note that “it is now obvious that investors have made the Trump-strong dollar link.” Given Trump’s potential for lower taxes, inflationary protectionist measures, and greater geopolitical risks,” this is also how we interpret it,” we thought.

Donald Trump is being linked to an even stronger, not weaker, dollar. Image: X Screengrab

Periods of extreme dollar strength do n’t tend to go well for Asia’s export- reliant economies. Powerful dollar rallies of the kind that have taken place across the globe over the past few years have tended to squander disproportionate amounts of capital, denying Asia of desperately needed investment.

The Fed’s “taper tantrum” of 2013 is one earlier reminder of this phenomenon. The Fed tightened its last two years with an even greater degree of force than it has in the last two years, which is the real bookend for Asia.

At the time, the Fed doubled short- term interest rates in just 12 months. The tightening set in motion Mexico’s peso crisis, the bankruptcy of&nbsp, Orange&nbsp, County, California and the demise of Wall Street securities giant&nbsp, Kidder, &nbsp, Peabody&nbsp, &amp, &nbsp, Co.

Then developed Asia, which was the biggest casualty of all, arrived. By 1997, a multi- year dollar rally&nbsp, and rising US yields made Asian currency pegs to the dollar impossible to maintain.

First came Thailand’s chaos- generating devaluation in July 1997. Next, Indonesia and South Korea scrapped dollar pegs. Malaysia and the Philippines were also on the brink as a result of the turbulence. Before long, global investors began worrying Japan and China might stumble, too.

The fear was that&nbsp, China might devalue, catalyzing a fresh wave of market turbulence. Luckily, Beijing did n’t – just as it has n’t today.

Japan contributed to the drama back then when, in November 1997, Yamaichi Securities collapsed. The failure of a then- 100- year- old Japan Inc icon shook global markets. Thankfully, officials in Tokyo kept the collapse from becoming a systemic shock globally.

Now, Asia faces a giant shock from the other direction. Despite the rally, global investors are no longer confident in the dollar because it poses a greater, immediate systemic risk.

Just as the US national debt reaches the$ 35 trillion mark, the de-dollarization movement is gaining traction. What’s more, Washington’s debt burden is headed to$ 50 trillion by 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Midway through November, Moody’s Investors Service threatened to downgrade the US, shaking the dollar’s stability. That would mean the loss of Washington’s last AAA rating, which would likely send US 10- year yields skyrocketing.

Is the Fed making an epic&nbsp, mistake? Only time will tell. But it’s just one of several top central banks whose&nbsp, mistakes&nbsp, could shake the global financial system in ways few appear to see coming.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Ukraine’s debt negotiations could decide the war – Asia Times

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As Ukraine fights against Russian invasion, it faces a battle on two fronts: military and financial. Global attention understandably focuses on battlefield developments, where Russian troops are pushing toward Ukraine’s second city, Kharkov. But Ukraine is simultaneously experiencing financial struggles.

With its economy damaged by war and the year’s defense cost estimated to be US$54.4 billion, Ukraine is on the brink of defaulting on $22.8 billion in debt. For Ukraine, debt is not an accounting exercise – it represents the ability to defend its sovereignty and secure its future.

At the onset of the war, private investors led by JP Morgan agreed to freeze Ukraine’s debt repayments. That agreement is set to expire in August. Both Ukraine and its lenders are racing to reach a last-minute debt deal to avoid default.

These debt restructuring talks are common between states and investors, but they usually last years and rarely occur in the context of war. At present, both sides remain far apart in their negotiations. Ukraine is demanding a 40% reduction in its debt obligations and investors are willing to take only a 20% loss – known in financial circles as a “haircut.”

Ukraine faces a trade-off in its debt negotiations. On the one hand, securing a larger debt reduction, or even an outright default, could free up substantial fiscal resources in the short term. This would allow Ukraine to redirect funds from debt payments to immediate war-related needs.

However, the long-term consequences of such a decision could be severe, with higher borrowing costs and longer periods of exclusion from capital markets. The outcome of these negotiations will shape not only Ukraine’s immediate defense capabilities but also its long-term economic resilience.

A country’s ability to access credit markets plays an important role in determining the outcome of a war. In previous research, which was published in 2013, I found that states with lower borrowing costs are significantly more likely to win their wars.

Debt allows states to mobilize more resources, more quickly than they otherwise could. The cheaper the debt and the easier it is to access, the more resources that country can mobilize for its war effort.

Because of the importance of debt for war, states involved in wars rarely default. The risk of losing access to credit markets is usually too high. There are, however, some notable exceptions.

Russia technically defaulted on its debt shortly after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 because sanctions made it impossible to make debt payments. And Saddam Hussein’s Iraq defaulted amid the war between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s. But both countries had substantial natural resource wealth to draw upon, a luxury Ukraine doesn’t have.

The Russian and Iraq exceptions highlight another crucial factor in wartime finance: the nature of a country’s political system. As autocracies, Putin’s Russia and Saddam’s Iraq could impose restrictive economic measures during wartime.

The Russian government, for example, has imposed controls that make it difficult for exporters and foreign companies operating in the country to take money out of Russia.

By contrast, the Ukrainian government has to be sensitive to the domestic political pressures of war financing. Measures like those adopted in Russia would probably spark political discontent in Ukraine.

Debt allows democratic leaders to mobilize resources without relying on unpopular fiscal strategies. However, facing the prospect of reduced access to debt, Ukraine has reverted to divisive tax policies that have raised the tax burden on individuals while cutting social spending.

Taxes are important to the war effort but they risk upsetting the necessary domestic support to continue fighting. And the Ukrainian government has been accused by journalists and international watchdog groups of being too restrictive in its response to domestic discontent.

The Ukrainian domestic intelligence agency allegedly surveilled an investigative media team in their hotel rooms.

Ukraine’s financial future

There’s some good news for Ukraine’s leadership though. After much delay, US Congress passed a military aid package worth $60 billion in the spring. At the same time, the UK provided its largest aid package to Ukraine, worth more than $3.8 billion for 2024.

More recently, the G7 (which consists of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and US) agreed to use Russia’s frozen assets to finance a new $50 billion loan to Ukraine.

These additional financial resources are needed for Ukraine’s war effort. But they do not solve the immediate debt problems. The UK and US aid packages are earmarked for military equipment only and cannot be used for budgetary support. The G7 loan will be more flexible, but that money is not expected to be delivered until later this year.

Ukraine must balance the immediate needs of war financing with long-term economic considerations and domestic political pressures. The stakes could not be higher. The terms Ukraine secures in debt negotiations will affect not just its ability to fund the current war effort, but also its capacity to rebuild once the conflict ends.

Patrick E Shea is Senior Lecturer in International Relations and Global Governance, University of Glasgow

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Cryptos, gold and the end of the dollar – Asia Times

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The US federal debt, which is currently approaching US$ 35 trillion or 1200 % of GDP, is alarming a growing number of economics and financial analysts. Prior to defence spending and rights, interest payments on the debts have grown to be the most important item in the US federal budget.

In earlier June, previous US House Speaker Paul Ryan proposed that the US government may recognize stablecoins, resource- backed bitcoin, as settlement for US Treasuries. According to Ryan, the initiative would lead to an “immediate, tough increase in demand for US debts, which would lessen the chance of a missed debt auction and an ensuing financial and economic crisis.”

Ryan’s plan serves as a testament to how serious the US loan issue has grown. Cryptocurrencies were conceived as anti- stablecoins currencies. They are modern currencies that are privately issued and can be used anywhere in the world in an anonymous manner. Bitcoin, the first bitcoin, was meant to be a system for a new economic system that could start with a clean slate.

In the US, as of 2024, crypto advocates are calling for the regulation of asset-backed cryptos ( stablecoins ) so that they can be used to buy US Treasuries and pay taxes. Cryptocurrencies may be able to save the imperfect financial system that they were supposed to replace.

US Congressman Matt Gaetz introduced a bill that would allow Americans to give their federal income tax in Bitcoin two days after Ryan submitted his plan. Gaetz claimed that the dramatic change would encourage creativity, increase efficiency, and give Americans more freedom.

This is a courageous step in the direction of a future where digital currencies are essential to maintaining the US’s position as a leader in scientific development, according to Gaetz.

Is it possible for a fiat currency to survive with personally issued currencies? In the last 50 years, the dollar lost 90 % of its value, and it is still losing money annually at a rate of about 10 %.

Altcoins vary widely in price, but almost all of them are priced in dollars. They are therefore susceptible to a potential ( some economists say unavoidable ) devaluation of the dollar. &nbsp,

Bitcoin Pizza Day

A bit of bitcoin history. A computer programming using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto published a report on a crypto bulletin board on October 31, 2008, to proclaim Bitcoin, the first peer-to-peer cryptocurrency. People may “mine” Bitcoins by completing complicated mathematical puzzles and receive rewards for the newly created coins.

Nakamura argued that the economic system was corrupt and benefited a tiny elite by using taxpayer money to bail out Wall Street in 2008. Bitcoin would be the person’s income, beyond the power of governments. It may make it possible to pay someone anywhere in the world almost completely for free.

Just 21 million Bitcoin could be mined, making fiat currencies defense to inflation brought on by overwhelming money stamping, a criterion found in fiat currencies.

Bitcoin is based on systems that existed, among them modern names.

In 2010, Bitcoin recorded its first commercial exchange. Who delivered two pies to his Florida residence in the form of a Bitcoin worker named Laszlo Hanyecz offered 10, 000 BTC to him?

American computer Jeremy Sturdivant accepted the offer. He had two pies delivered to Hanyecz’s house at a cost of$ 25, and Hanyecz transferred 10.000 bitcoin to Studivant’s Bitcoin budget. Bitcoin was valued at$ 0.0041 during the transaction.

Currency’s initial purchase, remembered as Bitcoin Pizza Day, generated broader involvement in the modern money. Entrepreneurs started crypto exchanges to facilitate the purchase and sale of cryptocurrencies, and they invested in server farms to stone cryptocurrencies. In a simple 15 times, Bitcoin’s cost went from almost zero in 2009 to a maximum of &nbsp,$ 75, 830 in early 2024.

Bitcoin’s potential as a pay method was unsuccessful. Just a small percentage of Bitcoin transactions are made for retail use. The remainder involves crypto investing.

Crypto companies have created a number of different kinds of altcoins. Among them are bitcoins. Some cryptocurrencies are backed by assets like real estate, corporate debts, and even other cryptocurrencies, people are backed by reserves of stablecoins assets held in bank transactions. A bitcoin named DigixDAO has a” stain backed by physical gold” that is supported by 1 ounce of silver that is stored in a bunker.

Ironic is the rise of cryptocurrencies that are gold-backed. The US government’s decision in 1971 to remove the money from the gold standard was largely responsible for the difficulties in the financial system, which allegedly contributed to the development of Bitcoin.

The consists

After WWII, the US dollars became the global reserve currency. The dollar was purged from gold at a fixed price of$ 35 per ounce under the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. &nbsp, The English lb, the French franc and assets of different countries were pegged to the money, and hence indirectly to silver. By limiting the amount of money that can be issued, metal resources impose fiscal discipline on nations.

In the 1960s, many European nations expressed concern that the US state was damaged financially, which was the outcome of a pricey war in Vietnam and the introduction of social plans ( the War on Poverty ). Economists in Europe speculated that the US was printing more money than gold had again.

The French state made its issues known in a serious manner. It demanded ore in exchange for sending a warship full of dollars to New York. Many other countries followed suit, albeit without ships, and they progressively drained US silver resources.

At the end of World War II, the US had 21 measurement tons of gold. In 1971, just 8.133 plenty remained. The US government announced that it would temporarily shut the so-called golden windows, defaulting on the Bretton Woods Agreement, in order to lose its remaining property.

In exchange for military protection, the US in 1974 persuaded Saudi Arabia to buy all of its oil in dollars to maintain the worldwide demand for the currency. The deal mandated that all oil-importing countries keep dollar reserves, leading to an ever-increasing demand for dollars.

The so-called petro-dollar strengthened the status of the US dollars as the world supply money. The oil trade represents only 7 % of the global economy, but it is essential to the other 93 % of the economy.

Exploding loan

The US government has quickly increased its bill, no more constrained by the restrictions imposed by the gold standard. In 1971, US debt was$ 400 billion, in 2024 it reached$ 34 trillion, or 120 % of GDP.

To fund its shortfalls, the US government issues attention- bearing Treasuries. Backed by” the full faith and credit” of the US state, Treasuries have been regarded as a risk- completely purchase. The major customers were private owners, international institutions, pension funds and insurance companies.

Silver has been replaced as the dollar system’s core by US debts.

But history is repeating itself. In the late 1960s, France was concerned about the US silver deposits. Currently, China is concerned about US Treasuries.

China developed a sizable trade surplus with the US, bringing in at one point$ 1 billion a day net as it became the factory of the world. China became the world’s largest borrower to the US with a portion of its dollar to buy US Treasuries, joining Japan and Japan as the only other country to do so.

Next came the renowned Wall Street loan and the global financial crisis of 2008. China came to the conclusion that the US lacked the desire to control its investing or overhaul its political or economic system. China eventually cut back on its US bill purchases throughout the 2010s. Also, it started to lay the foundation for an alternative economic structures.

De-dollarization

Om 2021, China, Hong Kong, Thailand and the UAE announced they were developing mBridge, a digital alternative to SWIFT ( Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication ). Importantly, mBridge is based on a variation of bitcoin, the technology used in most bitcoin.

The standard structures of mBridge, the BRICS solution to Smooth

mBridge is designed to work with Central Bank digital currencies and serves as the most good case study for a monetary settlement system for the BRICS nations. The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf ( GCC), comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, has tested its own CBDC Bridge that will be connected to mBridge.

BRICS is also developing a trading forex system that could be backed in part by silver, oil, and other supplies. The biggest obstacle to the money has been a gold or oil-backed currency. Despite their strange appearance, golden and petrol have remained close to balance for more than a century. Their individual rates move within a very small area.

In 1971, when the US closed the golden window, an ounce of gold sold for$ 35. It reached$ 2, 450 in first 2024. In 1971, a barrel of oil was$ 3.60. In recent years it has traded between$ 80 and$ 100 a barrel. Measured in silver and oil, the money lost about 90 % of its value in the last 50 years.

If the BRICS introduces a coin that is pegged to gold, it might have an impact on the prices of everything from copper and gold to aluminum and the crucially important rare earths used in natural technology.

A developing BRICS will not only be the largest manufacturer of many industrial and consumer goods, but also have the ability to control a sizable portion of international assets. The latest BRICS people ‘ complete economic output has already surpassed that of the G7.

Saudi Arabia made the announcement to visit both BRICS and mBridge in June of this year. The Saudis had now begun selling non-dollar oil, but the statement made it clear that their commitment to the petro-dollar had come to an end.

The Saudi choice elicited a reaction from Michael Saylor, inc- founder of crypto big MicroStrategy. According to Taylor, the Saudis were making a error and should have chosen Bitcoin otherwise.

He wrote:” Picture a planet where 50, 000 businesses use cryptocurrency with P2P settlements with each other. Ask the Bank of Australia, the Bank of Austria, or the Bank of China if they would n’t like to have an asset that does n’t lose 7 to 10 % of its value annually. Ask them if they would n’t prefer to be able to make deals with any other banks in the world, peer- to- gaze. It’s an advancement over the existing system”.

Saylor perhaps knows better. Why do countries in the BRICS, including Saudi Arabia, China, and other BRICS nations, exchange their goods or commercial goods for dollars while deviating from the money system?

Crypto or metal?

Severe forms of economic engineering have made the US debt problem worse. Introducing bitcoin into the monetary system takes this a significant step further. Cryptocurrencies can be used secretly and across borders, making it ideal for duty evasion. It was, according to scholar Michael Hudson, change the US into” the new Switzerland”.

Hudson wrote:” The US sees acting as the place for the country’s tax evaders, criminals and others as a good regional strategy. The intention is not to criticize tax violence and more violent criminal acts, but to make money by serving as lender for these activities.

The US has three options, according to macroeconomist Luke Gromen, none of which are painless: it must reduce defence spending and privilege by at least 30 %, it is partially mistake, or it can fill the bill, barring a productivity miracle caused by AI or a breakthrough in cheap energy. Only in a national incident, which may lead to years of incredibly high inflation, are the first two options politically feasible.

Also, says Gromen, the US will have to re- flourish to reduce its reliance on foreign companies for even the most simple of items. The second US president will need to develop an commercial policy, or, better still, a national strategy to reimagine society.

In the short term, there is no reason for optimism. Donald Trump, a former US president, granted cryptocurrencies. He has pledged to chastise nations that stop using the money and that his reelection strategy accepts donations in bitcoin.

That does n’t sound like a plan. Reserve economies are on the verge of extinction. They are still present in the colonial period.

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China builds new presidential palace in Pacific’s Vanuatu

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SYDNEY: The government of cash-strapped Vanuatu will soon settle into a suite of new buildings funded by China, a move likely to reignite concerns about Beijing’s reach in the South Pacific nation. At an official handover ceremony conducted in front of a towering China Aid billboard, Vanuatu Prime Minister CharlotContinue Reading