Russia oil price cap accelerates de-dollarization

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The oil “price cap” of US$60 per barrel for Russian oil is a controversial move by the European Union and G7. The price cap prohibits Western insurers and shipping companies, which account for more than 90% of the marine insurance industry, from servicing vessels that carry Russian oil above $60 per barrel. The intention is lofty — […]Continue Reading

Jerome Powell’s China problem is just beginning

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TOKYO – Investors betting that the US Federal Reserve is throttling back on interest rate hikes aren’t paying attention to events in China. The jump in oil and other key commodity prices already points to a China reopening trade that’s likely only just beginning. In the last month, Xi Jinping’s economy swung suddenly from “zero-Covid” […]Continue Reading

Mongolia’s hands tied by Russia-China reliance

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Mongolia’s domestic party politics, international relations and economy all faced challenges in 2022. The Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) wrestled with how to govern despite having a supermajority in Mongolia’s parliament, the State Great Khural, and how to position itself vis-a-vis Moscow following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The government staked its fiscal fortunes on reviving coal […]Continue Reading

Cold War ties still bind Russia and South Africa

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The recent announcement that the South African, Russian and Chinese navies will conduct joint exercises off the east coast of South Africa between February 17 and 27, has alarmed the United States. Washington has condemned the decision as the exercises would appear to compromise South African neutrality in the diplomatic controversies surrounding the war in […]Continue Reading

McCarthy’s House rule is a gift to China

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TOKYO – In a year littered with economic and geopolitical landmines, China has at least one reason for optimism: Kevin McCarthy. Observers are plenty busy detailing why the US House of Representatives swinging to Republican control adds to Xi Jinping’s long list of headaches. Among the biggest: the risk has never been higher that Washington […]Continue Reading

Central Asia in a precarious great power vacuum

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and China’s modest response to it, has placed the governments of Central Asia in an unenviable position — aware that Russia does not fully respect their sovereignty and has no qualms about using force while recognizing that no one would provide sufficient assistance if they became a target of Russian aggression. […]Continue Reading