America’s allies determined to avoid the Meloni dilemma

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The G20 Summit in New Delhi this year was largely attended by non-attendees. Vladimir Putin decided to skip the proceeding because the conflict in Ukraine was still going on. When the summit’s final joint declaration & nbsp appeared, it was milquetoast and merely denounced the use of force for territorial gain without naming any specific country.

However, Xi Jinping, the various absent head, was the actual subject of this year’s G20. China’s president made the last-minute decision to abruptly and without warning to forgo the summit, marking the first time he had missed the forum.

The spirit of Beijing hung over the event even if he wasn’t present. The G20 was commemorated by the bloc’s proposal of a new initiative to compete with the 10-year-old Belt and Road Initiative( BRI ) of China as well as the sight of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni attempting to wriggle out of her nation of participation in the Chinese scheme.

Read also: Bridging world split with India and the G20.

Italy was compelled to pick a side after Western nations announced their intention to establish an A & nbsp and new route to India. However, those nations outside of Europe are determined to avoid Meloni’s predicament.

The new program of The Group of Twenty is a part of broader strategy that has been in the works for some time.

US President Joe Biden directly linked it to China’s BRI, which funds bridges, highways, and road infrastructure in developing countries to reference trade routes together, when he announced it two years ago as the” Build Back Better World” program. In a jab at China’s program, which has frequently been criticized for putting nations into significant debt, Biden stated at the time that the new strategy may be” significantly more equitable.”

Build Back Better was established as the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment next year. A new financial hall was unveiled at G20 this year as a component of the PGII, which would connect India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and finally the European Union via rail and sea references.

Italy caught in a rivalry

As a result, two competing ideas emerge that connect East and West and pass through various Middle Eastern regions. Italy was positioned in the middle.

Italy is the only G7 and Western nation to be a part of the BRI, and at the summit, Meloni was unmistakably laying the groundwork for the exit, arguing that upholding the A & nbsp’s close ties to China was more crucial than the specifics set forth in the GRI.

Although four times in the BRI have undoubtedly increased bilateral trade, some Italians complain that it has actually harmed ties between Rome and its European allies while also benefiting China more.

Meloni’s predicament is the most glaring one that has ever been presented to the public. However, it is merely one example of a larger conundrum that many of the Eastern and Middle Eastern nations involved in the competing programs must deal with. Sincerely, some European nations are established to force them into this predicament. And almost everyone is determined to avoid it.

The idea of expanded industry passageways East and West, but rather the political stance of the nations within it, is the source of conflict.

The Meloni conundrum also highlights a problem that many European nations are debating: whether to view China’s rise to greater assertiveness as an ally or foe.

Because of this, Chinese Premier Li Qiang & nbsp’s arrest of a researcher in the UK accused of spying for China caused British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to be so outspoken about his choice at the G20 Summit. There is a heated discussion about how to handle China and the gravity of the danger within Sunak’s own Conservative Party, even to the point of schism. & nbsp,

However, Sunak sent James Cleverly, his foreign minister, to China for speaks prior to the G20 on the grounds that it is unjust to avoid interacting with a nation that is Britain’s fourth-largest trading partner.

In other parts of the West, the exact holds true. French President Emmanuel Macron was criticized for undermining American one when he traveled to China this year and stated that Europe should preserve some” proper independence” and remain separate from both the US and China.

In order to restrict China’s access to Western technology, restrict US investment in Chinese high-tech industries, and, as & nbsp, ensure that America maintains strong alliances with nations surrounding China, the US under Biden has taken the initiative to contain China.

avoiding confrontation

States outside of the West are also struggling with the conundrum. However, the majority of America’s friends oppose a course of conflict.

The three non-Western nations most involved in the new passageway at the G20 Summit have no desire to engage in conflict. On the contrary, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are both working to improve ties with Beijing. China is the region’s largest buying partner, despite the fact that America does have a larger military presence there.

Despite the fact that India’s relations with China are more complex, it would never” choose” between those with the US or China.

America seems to prefer that these nations make the decision so that China may become isolated and contained. However, the US has a limited capacity to influence or bribe these nations.

A view of American flee— possibly even an environment— not just in the Middle East but unquestionably there has contributed to China’s rise.

Some of America’s allies have reached the same conclusion as its Middle Eastern counterparts: open the door to the West while constructing defenses against the burgeoning capabilities of the future.

The copyright-holding Syndication Bureau, & nbsp, provided this article.

Faisal Al Yafai is a frequent commentator on international TV news networks and is currently working on henchmen on the & nbsp, Middle & ndsb, and East & NBP. He has covered the nbsp, Middle & Nb, East, NB, Eastern, North, South, Europe, Asia, and North Africa for media organizations like The Guardian and the BBC. Follow him on @ FaisalAlYafai on X / Twitter & nbsp.

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China property crisis another blow to global travel

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In the past, Chinese visitors were among the most well-traveled in the world in 2019. Together, they spent more than US$ 250 billion worldwide that year, which is almost twice as much as their closest rivals, the Americans. They also took part in over 150 million international flights.

The Covid-19 pandemic shook both the global and Chinese go markets. However, despite the lifting of pandemic restrictions and a resurgence in international travel, Taiwanese tourists have been slower to return to the stars of the world. Strangely enough, the cause could be found in the homes and grounds that Chinese aircraft fly around.

I’m interested in how China’s faltering real estate market is lowering customer wasting and having an impact on travel destinations around the world as a teacher of selling who specializes in consumer psychology.

Genuine issues, real estate

To comprehend the problem, you must first comprehend China’s recent real estate crisis. How awful is it exactly? Investors worried about potential loan default have sent China’s largest designer, Country Garden, stock plummeting after it lost$ 7.1 billion in the first six weeks of 2023.

The troubled China Evergrande Group, another significant developer, reported a$ 4.5 billion loss during the same time period and last month requested bankruptcy protection in the US. After defaulting on$ 300 billion in debt in 2021, which sparked the current crisis, it attracted attention from around the world.

The fact that regional governments are heavily reliant on tax revenue from property sales, as well as estate taxes and real estate development fees, is one significant, if direct, reason why China’s housing market is so weak. At the same time, real estate has accounted for roughly 70 % of the common population’s property.

Due to these details, both local governments and builders were persuaded to take out large loans to finance new construction. The industry predictedably cooled and has continued to cool when the central government began to impose stricter rules to limit debate and control prices. The best 100 engineers in China saw a 33 % decline in new home sales in July 2023. Costs are also falling.

This has had a ripple effect on the economy of China. Most quickly, selecting has cooled and customers are tightening their budgets despite the declining demand for labor and construction elements. With less funding, local governments are even having trouble surviving; some regions are compelled to reduce benefits and wages for the government.

Why do staycations seem so appealing right now?

For people, who must deal with declining money as housing prices decline, the situation is particularly difficult. As careful consumers prioritize their savings more and more, this has an impact on spending, making the economic hardship for businesses all over the nation worse.

It should come as no surprise that what happens in China doesn’t sit there, at least to anyone who has paid attention to the global economy. And as new, frugal Chinese people cut back on their spending, the international tourism industry has been hit particularly difficult.

Even though general trips to Japan had rebounded to 70 % of pre-pandemic levels by April 2023, Chinese hospitality there had decreased by about 85 % since 2019. Foreign travel to well-known Western countries like France, Switzerland, Greece, and Spain has also drastically decreased.

Overall, it is anticipated that China’s outbound travel spending will be down by almost 70 % from its pre-pandemic peak this year.

Beneath a sign reading Sal Tours, a man and woman behind a desk show paperwork to a woman in front of the desk.
On February 10, 2023, a client and two staff members of an organization in Chengdu, China, talk about options for international travel. Xinhua / Tang Wenhao

To be honest, China’s tourism industry is recovering to some extent as conservative tourists increasingly choose to stay closer to home. According to the China Tourism Academy, domestic tourism may reach 90 % of pre-pandemic levels by 2023.

However, that didn’t be enough to make up for the effect of a decline in consumer confidence. The fact that the amount of money travellers are willing to invest is declining is a contributing factor.

Foreign traveling agencies have been shuttering in large numbers in recent years due to demand issues as well as the effects of Covid-19 and political unrest. About 8,500 hospitality companies and providers filed for bankruptcy between January and April 2022. That churning and disruption are bad news for the industry, even if there is some reopening.

With the crisis and rising gas prices deterring would-be guests, international tourism has faced a difficult few years. A treatment will be that much more difficult for Chinese consumers who are feeling down in the dumps about the market and choosing moderate vacations.

Professor of advertising at Miami University, Zhiyong Yang.

Disclosure: Zhiyong Yang has not disclosed any important affiliations outside of their educational appointment and does not work for, read, individual shares in, or get funding from any company or organization that may profit from this article.

Under a Creative Commons license, this essay has been republished from The Conversation. read the article in its entirety.

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Halimah Yacob fulfilled promise to be a ‘President for everyone’, says PM Lee

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SINGAPORE: On Wednesday( Sept 13 ), Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong declared that outgoing President Halimah Yacob had kept her promise to serve as a” President for everyone.” & nbsp,

Mr. Lee recalled what Mdm Halimah said when she was elected in 2017 when he spoke at her leave welcome at the Istana. & nbsp,

You have undoubtedly kept your word through your command and compassion for the people. He continued,” Your efforts to increase opportunities for all have resulted in a more cohesive and inclusive Singapore where we all belong and everyone can contribute. & nbsp,

” As we update our social compact and move forward, your commitment to enhancing our society and concern for every Singaporean will continue to inspire and guide Singaporeans.” nbsp

On Wednesday, Mdm Halimah will resign as Singapore’s seventh president. Tharman Shanmugaratnam, a former top minister, may be sworn in as the nation’s new president on Thursday. & nbsp,

Gender equality was one of her emotions as Singapore’s initial female president, and in her different roles, she encouraged people to push the envelope in his speech at the farewell greeting on Wednesday. & nbsp,

” Your efforts challenged gender stereotypes and increased awareness of the biases still experienced by women ,” & nbsp

He noted that Mdm Halimah also paid close attention to people with disabilities and was worried about mental health issues, particularly among Singapore’s children. & nbsp,

According to Mr. Lee, she often visited social security organizations while serving as president to comprehend the difficulties faced by those with disabilities and to encourage businesses and Singaporeans to be more understanding and accepting of them. & nbsp,

He added that she also started the Supporting Youth in Community program to offer youths psychosocial support and that it has assisted many young people in overcoming their emotional challenges. & nbsp,

She protected workers’ passions, particularly those of lower-wage workers, because of her close ties to the labor movement, according to Mr. Lee. & nbsp,

In 1978, Mdm Halimah began working for NTUC as an industrial ties agent. She was chosen to serve as the congress’s assistant secretary-general in 2007 and left the position in 2011. & nbsp,

In his speech on Wednesday, Mr. Lee stated that” all these attempts made us more aware of our less privileged comrade and improved their situation.” & nbsp,

TACKLING COVID – 19 & nbsp,

Mdm Halimah held the” subsequent key” to Singapore’s resources while serving as president during the COVID – 19 pandemic, performing her work” on an unprecedented scale ,” according to Mr. Lee. & nbsp,

The COVID-19 crisis was” on a different level altogether ,” he said, adding that the government had to ask her permission before constantly drawing on the militia, in contrast to Singapore’s$ 4.9 billion withdrawal from its reserves during the 2009 Global Financial Crisis to support the economy and work. & nbsp,

In order to ensure that the requested takes on resources were needed and justified, Mdm Halimah collaborated tightly with the government alongside the Council of Presidential Advisors to comprehend the rapidly evolving situation and evaluate the proposed responses and requests, according to Mr. Lee. & nbsp,

” You actively participated in a complete process, as the officers involved will attest. stern but no hostile ,” he continued. & nbsp,

Mdm Halimah authorized the withdrawal of up to S$ 69 billion from the resources between 2020 and 2022 during the COVID-19 crisis, with about Randomness$ 40 billion being used. & nbsp,

According to Mr. Lee, this was still the largest sum drawn since the” next key” system was developed. & nbsp,

He continued,” This made it possible for the government to address the problems quickly and confidently without having to carry a heavy debt load and burden future generations.” & nbsp,

” With your help, the state was able to stabilize the economy, protect employment, and make Singapore a more resilient and powerful country after COVID.”

The Prime Minister also expressed gratitude to Mr. Mohamed Abdullah Alhabshee, Mdm Halimah’s husband, for playing a” important function” in helping her win the presidency. & nbsp,

” He was always by your area as you carried out your official duties, whether it was meeting Singaporeans or interacting with unusual nobles.” His laid-back demeanor complemented your own comfort and accessibility also, he said. & nbsp,

Mr. Lee recalled how Mohamed had” a center for charity” and may do at charity events after observing his love of music and drumming abilities. & nbsp,

” I thank you for your service to our country on behalf of the Singaporean government and people. We say goodbye to you and Mr. Mohamed and wish you the best of luck in your future endeavors.

According to the Prime Minister, Mdm Halimah can look up on a” separated and extraordinary job” in the public services and as Singapore’s head of state as her term as President comes to an end. & nbsp,

” I thank you for your service to our country on behalf of the Singaporean government and people. We say goodbye to you and Mr. Mohamed and wish you the best of luck in your future endeavors. 

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China’s property crisis strategy still under construction

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For forex traders, even the most complex economic techniques are no match.

The People’s Bank of China and the crew of Taiwanese leader Xi Jinping spent the previous year obsessing over a renminbi exchange rate plumbing 16-year lows.

The inner circle of Xi, as well as the PBOC Governor & nbsp, Pan & ngsheng’s currency management team, are issuing a warning against yuan speculation and choosing higher-than-expected fixing rates.

Growing concerns about China’s default-ridden property market are the primary cause of the downward forces, and they aren’t going aside.

In fact, concerns that Beijing’s efforts to stabilize the business through rising home sales are failing are growing. That is exacerbated by the negative effects on Asia’s largest business.

This puts Premier Li Qiang and Xi in a difficult situation. To time, Xi, Li, and Pan have worked to lower prices without injecting the business with significant amounts of new input.

That’s how China reacted in 2008, 2015, and a number of other new financial downturns. Beijing just indicated that it is now somewhat more eager to stabilise the market.

However, it is obvious that Xi and Li” have not yet abandoned the aim to reduce the market’s rely on house over the long term, meaning some violent stimulus options are also off the table ,” as analyst Rosealea Yao at Gavekal Dragonomics points out.

The workings of this balancing work are being demonstrated in real-time. According to Yao, the following action” is likely to be a reset of another housing purchase restrictions in first-tier cities.” Overall, she says,” Recent legislation lowering is likely to be sufficient to maintain home selling at a low level and set trades on course to decline around 10 % this time.”

There are many contradictory signs, of training. One example is the PBOC’s decision to lower one-year borrowing charges in late August.

In its lessening move, Pan’s team chose not to include the five-year loan perfect rate that is used to rate mortgages. That” was interpreted as officials refraining from stimulating house desire, a message that quickly rattled markets ,” according to Yao.

Pan Gongsheng, government of the People’s Bank of China, has areas analyzing his rate decisions. BBC Screengrab photo

However, a few days later, the PBOC collaborated with other regulators to unveiled numerous policies that gave local governments more leeway to help real estate requirement. Significant changes to policies that previously prohibited the purchase of subsequent properties have been made in order to tamp down speculation.

Even in the two weeks since authorities moved to loosen mortgage restrictions, cracks have persisted in a sector that can account for up to 30 % of China’s gross domestic product ( GDP ).

For instance, according to Centaline Group analyst Zhang Dawei, Beijing’s current home sales decreased by 35 % over the past weekend.

Expectations for more stable business conditions in tier-1 cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou are dashed by such trends. New home sales are down 20 % across the country, according to China Index Holdings experts.

The measures, according to Goldman Sachs economists,” may result in a short-term rebound in property transactions, but are deficient to maintain the property market.”

According to Fitch Ratings researcher James McCormack, who considers Chinese real estate to be the” most important one sector of the world economy ,” these trends are having an impact on people all over the world.

The death of copper ore prices, according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia scientist Vivek Dhar,” lies in the hands of China’s home market.”

According to Julian Evans-Pitchard at Capital Economics, the country’s struggling real estate market continues to be the” primary culprit” for the declining likelihood that Xi will achieve its 5 % GDP growth target this year. This is especially true given Beijing’s apparent preference for monetary reworking over short-term growth sugar highs.

According to Japan analyst Richard Katz, there are many causes why China is currently pursuing big-picture reform. According to the creator of the Japan Economy Watch email, China” fails to get the most out of its enormous purchases ,” just like Japan did in the past.

According to Katz, a significant factor is the continued ascendancy of state-owned businesses. For every renminbi invested, SOEs just receive roughly half as much output as private firms.

According to Katz,” Beijing significantly reduced the responsibility of SOEs in the 1990s, but they’ve recovered under Xi.” Even worse, China continues to invest in infrastructure regardless of whether it is also necessary in order to support financial need in the face of low consumer income.

Various types of gun carriages arrive at Shanghai Hongqiao Station, one of the biggest high-speed road hubs in China. China already has the largest high-speed road network in the world. Asia Times picture

While many is amazing, like the cell phone towers one sees most over rural rooftops, an increasing number resembles Japan’s renowned” roads to nothing ,” according to Katz. The same is true of all the money invested in new housing, much of it debt-financed, also vacant, and purchased by people hoping to profit from a price increase, as in Japan’s real estate bubble in the 1980s.

According to Katz, the end result is that” back in 1995, China could increase its GDP by 1 % if it increased its stock of capital by 2.2 %.” Now, it must increase its capital stock by 6 % in order to achieve the same 1 % growth in GDP and nbsp. Therefore, nbsp must spend ever-larger stock of yearly GDP to purchase in order to keep the same level of GDP growth.

This is untenable and a significant contributor to China’s current problems, Katz continues.

Li has made several suggestions to expand progress vehicles since taking over as leading in March. To encourage communities to invest in stocks and bonds in addition to real estate, one is to develop deeper and more reliable capital markets. Create broader social security nets to promote consumption over cost-cutting in households.

Cai Fang, a PBOC monetary policy committee member, supports giving communities more money.

The most immediate task at hand is to increase home consumption, and in order to do so, it is essential to use all legal, ethical, affordable channels. Cai opines He estimates that if stimulus for about 4 trillion rmb( US$ 550 billion ) were pumped directly to consumers, GDP would increase and recession would end.

According to Greg Hirt, a worldwide expense officer at Allianz Global Investors, the move away from home is underway.

According to Hirt,” Overall, we see the property market issues as growing pains in China’s transition from an export – and real estate-driven market to one that is more centered on consumption and systems.” ” Debt has been a major factor in this transition, which started after the global financial crisis of 2008.”

China’s national debt increased to 300 % of GDP as a result, according to Hirt. Local governments and local government funding vehicles, which were intended to use money to finance the development of property and infrastructure, also became greatly indebted at the same time, and home prices increased.

However, Hirt added,” we think the likelihood of a widespread crisis in the economy is still low right now.” Local government funds have benefited from actions like raising loan maturities and refinancing bonds. The Beijing government has also mandated deleverage and adopted a more circumspect stance when approving network opportunities.

It is now quite obvious, according to Gavekal’s Yao,” that the government has changed its bottom lines for property policy equivalent to the very restrictive stance of current years.”

Because it is still determined to the objective of lowering the market’s rely on house over the medium and long term, there are still some things the state is unwilling or unwilling to do.

Yao notes that the current goal of policymakers is likely to merely maintain cover sales, which have been steadily declining since April and are impeding economic growth. Officials are likely to take ever-more drastic measures to put a stop to the industry if transactions continue to deteriorate.

However, there is little evidence that” policymakers” are thinking about advancing a national home signal, modeled after the slum-redevelopment program started in 2015, that may use public funds to directly increase need for private housing. These days, it’s widely believed that program was a policy error, and continuing to support demand at opportune when the basic need for new housing is declining could worsen rather than correct market imbalances.

Widespread risks may or may not be threatened by China’s home problems. Facebook picture

Yao continues,” At the moment, there are still some existing people applications, such as the” urban villages” plan to restore dilapidated structures in some cities, but the scope is quite modest.

Therefore, she continues,” The government is probably ready to eliminate obstacles to households using their demand for housing, but unless the downturn worsens, refrain from directly increasing that demand.” Rather, it is preferred to help increased delivery of social and public accommodation.

According to Yao, a complex policy approach of this nature should be sufficient to guarantee that sales in first-tier cities can now decline while sales may also experience modest gains in some other regions. However, Yao explains that a significant increase in overall revenue also seems unlikely.

Whether or not global forex dealers like it, Xi and Li make it clear that they are willing to put up with a weaker real estate market in order to avoid the boom-bust phases of the history.

Follow William Pesek on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ WilliamPess

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Farmer debt moratorium set for Q4

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Julapun disapproves of the welfare-for-all prepare

PUBLISHED: September 13, 2023, at 6:00 p.m.

Farmer debt moratorium set for Q4
In March of last year, farmers and their backers occupied a region along Khlong Prapa close to the Finance Ministry and demanded assistance from the government to solve their debt issues. ( Image: Chanat Katanyu)

According to Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, the government may enact a bill ban in the third quarter of this year that will pay attention as well as debt principal for farmers.

The plan, along with other essential measures aimed at lowering living expenses and boosting the economy, is anticipated to receive approval from the case at its first meeting on Wednesday. These include lowering energy costs and providing Taiwanese citizens with a momentary visa waiver program.

Mr. Srettha stated that the government may promote knowledge sharing and systems use in addition to carrying out the promised debt moratorium scheme so that farmers can reduce costs and boost their income.

One strategy that producers would be encouraged to use is precision agriculture and the use of natural fertilizers rather than chemical ones.

Mr. Srettha, the finance minister as well, responded to a query about state assistance for producers that was posed in parliament on Monday.

When Mr. Srettha introduced the federal policy speech in parliament on Monday, he listed a debt moratorium as one of the essential stimulus measures.

He did not elaborate, but he asserted that the ban would certainly change government compliance with financial discipline.

According to a Finance Ministry supply, the embargo for small-scale farmers with loans totaling no more than 1 million baht each was expected to last for three years.

Additionally, Mr. Srettha stated that the government would outline steps to combat the country’s growing issue of illegal meat goods.

However, deputy finance minister Julapun Amornvivat insisted that Thailand could not employ a condition welfare system that would provide similar assistance to all, claiming that the nation still lacked the necessary funds to support such an initiative.

For example, he claimed that in order to generate enough money to support such a common state welfare system, the nation’s taxation structure will need to be overhauled. He said,” I’m sorry, but we’ll probably have to set that vision aside for the time being and confront reality because Thailand’s GDP is still significantly lower than that of nations with a general state security system.”

He was responding to a comment made by MP Sasinan Thamnithinan of the Move Forward Party during the political discussion on the government’s plan statement on Tuesday. She had criticized the government for only providing specific groups with security.

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Exclusive interview with Paul Yang, BNP Paribas CEO for Asia Pacific | FinanceAsia

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Paris-headquartered BNP Paribas boasts a history of over 160 years in Asia and today, it draws upon a 20,000-strong team that is active in thirteen markets across the continent.

The regional effort is led by Paul Yang, who ascended to role of CEO for Asia Pacific in December 2020, as the world succumbed to the full throes of the beginnings of a three-year pandemic. As society grappled with widespread affliction, Asia’s key economies responded to rapidly evolving government direction with fervour: leaving borders closed and markets shaken.

However, as you will discover through this exclusive interview, Yang was defiant in his refusal to be beset by external challenges. Proving himself an astute leader at the regional helm, he navigated the uncertain scenario deftly, and would go on to secure solid returns for both full-year 2021 and 2022; as well as robust revenue for the first quarter of 2023.

With a view to steering the bank’s business in support of the group’s Growth, Technology and Sustainability (GTS) strategy for 2025, FinanceAsia sought Yang’s take on Asia as a key international powerhouse, and learned about the milestones of his international career to date.

Entering Asia

BNP Paribas’ forerunner, the Comptoir National d’Escompte de Paris (CNEP), was set up by France’s finance minister following the hardships endured during the French Revolution; to curb mass bankruptcy in the financial markets; and to stimulate the economy. 

Following signature of a free trade agreement with the British, the Comptoir sought to develop an international strategy to source the raw materials required to support the flourishment of European industry. To do so, it extended beyond its French national borders for the first time; establishing offices in Calcutta and Shanghai in 1860, independent of foreign partnership.

Later, CNEP merged with the Banque Nationale pour le commerce et l’industrie (BNCI) to form the Banque Nationale de Paris (BNP). Capitalising on these regional capabilities, the bank made Hong Kong the centre of its Asian platform.

Q: Paul, you’ve been based in Asia Pacific for the majority of your career with BNP Paribas. Can you share what has defined BNP’s corporate journey in Asia so far?

A: Well, I wasn’t there in the 1860s, but it’s true that we have had a very long presence in the region. However, I consider “modern” BNP’s presence to be quite recent. It was really the bank’s merger in 2000 that created who we are today, elevating us as France – and then Europe’s – leading financial group and the most profitable bank in the eurozone.

But regarding Asia, we’re proud to be able to say that we’ve been here for a long time, which demonstrates our commitment to the region.

In Hong Kong, for instance, we often deal with multiple family generations of entrepreneurs and tycoons. The same is the case for some of our mid-cap clients – we have dealt with their fathers. We have built a sufficient network in the region to be able to play a key role in executing succession plans and building businesses for the future.  It really means something that we’ve been here for so long and to be profitable in all of the 13 markets where we operate.

These days, being relevant to your clients counts. You need a strong balance sheet, presence and scale to guide key them from their home markets into new areas. This is how we started, building our financial institutions group (FIG), then multinational and corporate (MNC) franchises,before further progressing to build scale, solutions, products and platforms.

We have developed a strong Asian presence and over the last three years, we’ve built on connectivity to improve the flows between the various corridors we participate in. We are relevant to key local participants and accompany international clients in reverse, also.

This goes for all facets of our business: whether in the corporate and institutional world, or in consumer finance. We are bigger than the sum of our parts and many things we do have relevant purpose for our clients.

Q: How does the bank’s business in Asia compare to that of the European markets (e.g. France, Italy, Belgium and Luxembourg)?

A: Understandably, our stronghold is Europe and we are significant as well in America. But overall, Asia represents a sizable portion of group business.

The bank’s longevity and strong heritage in Asia Pacific, coupled with our integrated business model places us in good stead to extend and reinforce our presence in this growth region.

In this regard, BNP Paribas’ Asia Pacific revenue contribution to the group’s corporate and institutional business is about 20%; and it will continue to grow.

Ultimately, the bank is emerging as a leading player in the region – and this brings us to a better position to aim for larger deals and more ambitious goals.

In this respect, we have grown our market share in our regions – for example, we hold dominance in markets such as Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong in the wealth management space, and we have recently launched an onshore wealth capability in Thailand. Asset management is developing; and our insurance business – Compagnie d’Assurance et d’Investissement de France (Cardif), has also been successful.

Where we do not have underlying domestic market strength, we choose to partner. We are humble enough to realise that sometimes it is better to do so. For example, in Asia, on the insurance side of the business we have partnered with local banking distributors. We started exploring this type of partnership around 25 years ago in markets such as Taiwan, Japan and Korea, and we are building up our strength in China, India and Southeast Asia.

The same goes for the retail side – personal finance. In 2005, we became a strategic shareholder of Bank of Nanjing in China and we are now their single largest shareholder with a 15.7% stake. 

We have built core business through partnerships, but where we think that we can control the entire business because it’s part of our DNA, is on the wealth management and corporate institutional banking (CIB) sides.

Q: What are the bank’s strategic priorities across Asia over the short and long term?

A: We are a bank that tries to deliver short-term results alongside long-term goals. Long-term relationships are part of our nature from a strategy perspective, and we are not in the business of pursuing rash opportunities when things look great and then making drastic cuts in a down cycle. We have a long-term vision and try to cultivate trust and relationships with this timeframe in mind.

From a short-term perspective, we have targets around our top line to maintain cost discipline and ensure that we invest for the future. We are intrinsically risk-aware and we insist on having a good mix of new blood and older experience, to move forward prudently.

Diversification is key. When you pursue disciplined growth, you avoid temptation, fashion and fad and consequentially, mistakes. Across all markets and products, we want to be positioned as the number one European bank for CIB, the preferred partner for wealth management, insurance and asset management – and we are not far from achieving this goal. 

Asia comprises a mix of developed and developing markets. Whether you look at the position we have in Japan, Australia, or Korea – or across more emerging business hubs such as Southeast Asia or China, we are well positioned there for our clients and we generate good returns.

Some of our peers will concentrate their presence at a particular local base, say in hubs. But we do not believe in guaranteeing strong, underlying growth simply by sitting in Hong Kong and Singapore and flying bankers all over the place.

The creation of local platforms is important. We have been building these in a considered manner across Southeast Asia, Taiwan, mainland China and elsewhere for the past decade and we are able to see the results. For example, we recently complemented our business mix with a securities licence in China. Once we have completed the takeover of several prime brokerage businesses from our competitors, we will see an increase in the equity cash portion of our business mix. Then there’s the joint venture (JV) we secured with the Agricultural Bank of China, which is the largest bank in the market by network and with whom we’ll be structuring investment products for retail clients.

Q: Diversification is a theme that has emerged from the pandemic to build business resilience. But are there any particular geographies or sectors that stand out as offering growth opportunity?

A: We’ve seen some volatility in the banking sector, but as a group, our corporate culture has focussed on development in a very diversified way. In terms of resilience, this sets us apart.

If you look at our group results, you will see that around 50% of our business is in the domestic retail and consumer finance market;

a third is in CIB; and over 15% is concentrated on activities such as asset gathering – from private banking to asset management and insurance. Within CIB, there’s also security services, which might not have a great cost income, but involves limited capital consumption and brings recurrent fees.

This percentage mix has been kept stable as we’ve grown across all areas and however you slice and dice our business, you will always see diversification. It’s the same for our client base – we not only serve financial institution clients but also corporates and high net worth individuals (HNWI). These three pillars are quite well balanced and offer us the means to build a sufficient product platform.

Capital market activities, including equity capital markets (ECM), debt capital markets (DCM), fundraising and advisory services can be volatile and event-driven; while another big portion of our business and effort is in transaction banking: following the flow of finance, supply chains, trade finance and cash management activities.

The interest rate surge of the last 12 -18 months has been very much beneficial to the cash management business, while monoliners who rely only on investment banking, have suffered. We have benefitted. Whatever way the world or region goes, we are naturally hedged.

Across the Asian region, our presence differentiates us from the rest. We are more than 2,500 in Hong Kong, have 2,200 in Singapore, plus a solid foothold in Japan where we’ve ranked consistently within the top five thanks to our leadership in the global macro environment, both in fixed income currencies and commodities (FICC) and across equity and credit.

In Australia, we have a dominant position in the custodian business that we started 20 years ago; we do well in China, and then we have strong ambition in India and Southeast Asia. I cannot see any market where there isn’t potential.

Q: How do you aim to grow the Asian business?

A: In the past, we have grown organically – even when we looked to secure Deutsche Bank’s prime brokerage business in 2019, it was not a typical acquisition. They were trying to expand in terms of platforms and wanted to lighten up their equity business. Meanwhile, in July 2021, we acquired another 51% of Exane, the top-rated equity research business, following a successful 17-year partnership where we had held 49%.

Both deals demonstrated ambition and keenness to complement the building blocks of our equity business.

So yes, our focus is organic over external growth. We feel it’s better to rely on organic opportunity.

Q: Which developments excite you across sustainability?

A: We’ve been involved in sustainability for over a decade, having started our sustainable finance forum (SFF) in Singapore seven years ago. I’m happy to see that what was a niche market is now very much mainstream.

I would say we have been dominating the ESG thematic, especially when it comes to corporate social responsibility (CSR). We’ve exited from carbon-heavy energy, have moved towards renewables, and we are working to lighten up our upstream exposure. It’s pleasing that every year we do more, whether green bonds, sustainable loans or other structures. We are among the top three banks in the space and even if we cannot manage to stay number one, our efforts make a positive impact across society.

Last year, we created a group of more than 150 bankers, the Low Carbon Transition Group (LCTG), to support our clients’ energy transitions. We’re experienced, so are not having to start from scratch and can support those corporates who might not know where to begin.

We recently held an electric vehicle (EV) conference where we gathered more than 300 clients, corporates and investors in Hong Kong. The topic sits well with what we want to do in the sector around mobility as an engine for growth and we think we can bring value-add to our clients.

EV adoption figures are impressive. In 2019, they accounted for 2.2% of the global total in cars sold, and rose to 13% last year. In China, the penetration figures are double. We’ve seen how this market can surprise everybody regarding adoption of new technologies. China did it with internet access, the smartphone, payments, and now EV. It’s exciting.

Q: You started in the IT department, held positions in Paris, Taipei and Hong Kong, before taking on Asia Pacific leadership at the height of the pandemic. What has shaped your career?

A: You’re right, I took the helm of the region in the middle of the pandemic. I was very fortunate to have been based in Asia for more than 20 years, so I knew the people, the teams, key clients and our platforms, which helped tremendously. During the pandemic, we adopted new technologies and forms of digital communication to stay close to our clients. We succeeded and the vast majority of our clients did also.

I think I’ve been lucky. I started in IT – I’m not sure I was good enough to stay in it, but my first business trip was to Hong Kong. I loved the place and dreamed of how amazing it would be to be based there. Thirty years later, here I am.

Like everybody, I’ve worked hard, but I was very fortunate, and at times, daring. When I wanted to switch from IT to credit, people said “No, Paul. We like you very much, but please don’t do something stupid. You already have a promising future.”

My response was to ask for a chance. I was curious to learn and probably would have gone elsewhere if I hadn’t been given opportunity. Fear around not succeeding makes you try harder and you don’t want to disappoint the people who see something in you.

A few years in, I moved from credit to corporate banking, where I was offered a great job in China – everybody wanted to be in China, but interestingly, it was a bit early – nobody was ready to do much there. So, I transferred to Taiwan to lead the corporate banking team and learned management on the ground. Doing quite well, I was later promoted to head of the territory and then after, moved to Hong Kong. That was 18 years ago!

For me, it’s been a combination of hard work, opportunity, luck and meeting the right senior people to support my development.

One memory that stands out was when the bank appointed a Hong Kong local to lead Greater China. It was a big move, as previously, the standard was someone French and male, but a Hong Kong woman took on the role and I worked for her for many years, learning from her insights. She believed in me and offered me the support to grow.

Q: What’s been the biggest highlight of your career to date?

A: This is difficult! But a key milestone was being given the opportunity to move from IT to banking. I’ve always liked a challenge – from coding, to implementing new tech systems and platforms, to what I do today.

I’ve seen many different things in my career and I have always been very curious. I’ve really cherished every opportunity I’ve had.

I’ve been very happy in the organisation and even today, it’s meaningful to partner with faces old and new. Back in 2004-2005, I had the opportunity to build a partnership in China. After much research, we invested in the Bank of Nanjing, which, two years later, was the first City Commercial Bank to list. There are many board members who I know well. It’s great for both them and me – it’s nice that our professional focus involves making core connections. It’s meaningful.

Q : If you weren’t in banking, what do you think you’d be doing?  

A : Very early on, I think we all wanted to be football players! For France or Argentina – the recent World Cup rivals!

Sometimes I reflect and think I would have been pretty good at teaching. But whatever alternate path I would have taken, it would have involved international opportunity.

I grew up first in Taiwan before moving to France and it was at that point that I knew that I wanted to see the world and find opportunity to do so.

Of course, these days, when I look at my daughter evolving, I can see that there is a lot of opportunity ahead for her, more so than when I was young.  

¬ Haymarket Media Limited. All rights reserved.

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Nation ‘like a sick person’

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In: South-East Asia

P promises quick fixes for the business.

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin compared the nation to a” sick people” in his first policy speech to parliament yesterday, calling for the government to administer treatments like the 10,000-baht digital cash handout and lower energy prices.

He claimed that the Covid – 19 pandemic had exacerbated Thailand’s long-standing economic, social, and political issues and that it had not yet completely recovered from its consequences.

The government’s goal is to address these problems and lay the groundwork for the land to advance, he said. Poverty and inequality are not only preventing the nation from realizing its full potential, but they have also sparked a crisis in public trust.

Mr. Srettha added that the nation’s economy has also been impacted by the shifting political landscape and the competition among the superpowers in the world. Thailand had therefore effectively position itself to safeguard its interests.

The PM continued,” The country’s economy is particularly fragile, with household debt exceeding 90 % of the gross domestic product and public debt standing at 61 % of GDP this year.”

The government has prepared instant and short-term economic stimulus, such as the 10,000-baht digital currency handout and other procedures intended to reduce farmers’ and small – and medium-sized enterprises’ debt burdens, according to the top, in order to spur growth.

He reassured the government that the measures wouldn’t violate the country’s economic discipline or impair its ability to pay its debts.

In his speech, he defended the government’s decision to periodically waive visa requirements for Taiwanese citizens and expedite visa applications for people hoping to attend international events, saying that the commerce sector is essential to job creation and revenue generation.

According to Mr. Srettha,” Thailand is like a tired person … Tourism and spending are recovering so quietly that there is the risk of monetary recession.”

Additionally, he vowed to lower the cost of energy, cooking oil, and crude while also finding alternative energy sources.

The institution of monarchy and sections related to it would not be revised in Mr. Srettha’s contract act bid, according to another important policy of his government.

He insisted that in order to make sure the contract is political and well-liked by all parties, open suggestions will get sought in the process.

In response, criticism

Sirikanya Tansakul, the deputy leader of the Move Forward Party( MFP ), claimed that the government’s policies lacked clarity and had ambiguous goals, which suggested that there was insufficient confidence in their ability to be carried out.

She questioned the government’s ability to raise money for the modern wallet system, claiming that it might have to borrow money to make up the shortfall. MFP list – MP Woraphop Viriyaroj urged the government to change the digital wallet program so that SMEs may benefit from it rather than large corporations.

Additionally, he urged the government to increase SMEs’ access to loans so they could maintain their competitiveness.

Acting Democrat head Jurin Laksanawisit questioned the policy statement’s decision to omit some election campaign pledges, including a maximum guaranteed income for newly graduated workers and an annual maximum wage rate of 600 baht.

Mr. Jurin likewise urged the government to uphold the rule of law, claiming that this would only occur if the law was applied equally to both the wealthy and the less fortunate.

” If the previous administration made a mistake, your administration may make it right rather than letting it go.” Make set new standards and put people off, he advised.

” Well thought out” digital currency

The first day of the two-day discussion on the government’s plans was devoted to Pheu Thai and his digital pocket program.

The digital wallet commitment was defended by deputy finance minister Julapun Amornvivat, who claimed it wasn’t a populist tactic to entice citizens during the election campaign but rather an intelligent strategy to revitalize the business.

Businesses of all sizes are welcome to participate, he claimed, and the program won’t jeopardize financial discipline.

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How India overcame bitter G20 divisions over Ukraine

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India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R), US President Joe Biden (C), German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (3R) and Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (3L) along with world leaders arrive to pay respect at the Mahatma Gandhi memorial at Raj Ghat on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Delhi on 10 September 2023AFP
By Soutik Biswas and Vikas Pandey
Delhi’s G20 mountain

India has achieved significant diplomatic success thanks to the G20 mutual resolve in Delhi.

Given how polarized the party was over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, coming to an agreement on a joint statement appeared to be nearly impossible just days ago.

In the end, we had a resolve with no dissenting remarks and unanimous support from all G20 members.

Although important people, such as the US, the UK, Russia, and China, praised the result, Ukraine itself, which was not represented at the summit, was angry.

So how did India manage to unite countries with such diametrically opposed perspectives on Ukraine?

Some hints can be found in a careful reading of the announcement and some political developments that occurred just before the summit.

During its quarterly conference in August, the five-nation Brics class, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, decided to add six new people.

Argentina, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, the new people, have close relationships to China.

The West has long been afraid of China’s growing influence, especially in the developing world, even though the development may not have directly contributed to the result of the G20 summit.

According to Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, South Asia training head of the Eurasia Group,” It wasn’t a primary issue, but the West, particularly the US, is aware that China is actively attempting to establish an anti-Western global order.”

It is also well known that the West views India as China’s counterbalance and would not have preferred for Delhi to close its administration without making a statement.

US President Joe Biden, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva hold hands

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Therefore, there were numerous reasons why the West supported India in reaching a discussion.

The conflict in Ukraine was the principal sticking point. The G20’s Bali announcement from the previous year had criticized” brutality by the Russian Federation against Ukraine” and noted some members’ objections to this assessment.

It seemed improbable that the West would accept vocabulary that was less powerful than the one used in Bali, and Russia even made it clear that it would not accept a claim that Russia was to blame for the conflict.

India was in a great position to mediate the necessary find because it has cordial relations with both Moscow and the West.

The declaration ultimately used vocabulary that satisfied both Russia and Eastern nations.

It was evident that the West wanted India to succeed diplomatically. A settlement was always required. However, if there were issues in the language on which they could never reach an agreement, the US and the West would not have agreed to a mutual resolve, according to Angela Mancini, partner and head of Asia-Pacific markets at firm company Control Risks.

Analysts believe that the Delhi announcement was more forgiving than the Bali declaration in not blaming Russia for the battle. The” individual suffering and negative ramifications of the fight in Ukraine on world food and energy safety” was, however, addressed.

Officials from the UK, the US, and France ultimately seemed to concur with Russia that the summit’s announcement was a positive outcome. But, the wordings were interpreted differently by the two sides.

The declaration, according to UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak,” had strong language, highlighting the impact of the war on food prices and food protection.” Sergei Lavrov, the foreign secretary of Russia, referred to the Delhi tip as a milestone.

Ukraine, however, has been upset by the sudden deal because it claimed the G20 had nothing to be happy of.

African Union Chairman and Comoros President Azali Assoumani (R) and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi hug each other during the G20 leaders' summit

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Prior to the summit, one of the main worries was the debt problems that many developing nations were experiencing.

Developing countries have long argued that wealthy countries need to boost their support in order to support their markets. The epidemic battered these, and the conflict has made their difficulties worse. The world’s poorest nations owed$ 62 billion in annual loan services to creditors, with China owing two-thirds of this, according to a World Bank report from December.

European officials have frequently accused China’s lending practices of being aggressive, but Beijing disputes this claim.

The charter could have been vetoed by China, which is closely allied with Russia, but it was not. China is not explicitly or indirectly mentioned in the article about the debt problems.

” In terms of debt reduction, we did not observe any advancement.” Any criticism of banking procedures, according to Mr. Pal Chaudhari, would have been seen in many ways as an anti-China walk.

The declaration acknowledged the crisis and urged the G20 countries to accelerate the common framework’s( CF ) implementation, which was agreed upon in 2020 to aid vulnerable countries.

Despite the fact that the G20 countries account for nearly 80 % of greenhouse gases, the team agreed to tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 but did not set any significant emission reduction goals.

Importantly, the announcement focused on phasing out the use of fuel rather than mentioning any targets for lowering the consumption of crude oil. Saudi Arabia and Russia’s simplistic producers would have been content with this. The West’s emission cut targets, which they consider to be” implausible ,” have even caused discomfort in China and India.

French President Emmanuel Macron shakes hands with US President Joe Biden

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Delhi undoubtedly put a lot of effort into gaining discussion, even if it meant making significant concessions.

It’s not surprising that some of the vocabulary was a little muffled in some places to reach that compromise, says Ms. Mancini, given that the document had to be one.

The addition of the African Union in the G20 was one issue that brought the class together even before the mountain.

It strengthened Delhi’s efforts to give developing countries from the Global South more influence on international forums.

This was” one of the most difficult G20 delegations” in the forum’s nearly 25-year history, according to a Russian government communicator. According to Svetlana Lukash of the Russian news agency Interfax, it took nearly 20 days to reach an agreement on the charter prior to the conference and five days in person.

Whether the G20 unites the wealthy and developing countries or splits the earth into two tents remains to be seen.

Leaders of the G20 nations attend the second working session of the G20 summit

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Four nabbed in Poipet over scammer ties

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11 Sep 2023 at 04: 30 PUBLISHED

A man killed his wife and two children in Samut Prakan next quarter, and four more Thai nationals have been detained in Cambodia as a result of their connections to the call center con system.

Supol Wongwian, 21, Nisarat Sukasem, 22, Kanokporn Kraisuk, 19 and Kornkanok Singthit, 19, were all arrested in Poipet, according to assistant federal police chief Pol Gen Surachate Hakparn, who stated monday that a joint operation by Thai and Vietnamese government was the cause of their catch.

According to Pol Gen Surachate, Mr. Supol served as the network’s planner while the three women who were captured next to him were referred to as victims.

The suspects are accused of participating in a multinational crime consortium, computer crimes, and fraud collusion. To face legal action, they will be sent to Thailand.

Authorities seized some mobile devices from the suspects, along with ATM cards, bank records, and on 240, 000 ringgit in cash.

The four suspects, according to Pol Gen Surachate, were among the 30 individuals who were part of the scam group that led a man to murder his wife and two children on August 28 in Samut Prakan.

The gentleman attempted suicide but ended up in the hospital, where he is receiving medical attention for his wounds.

After guaranteeing a vehicle purchase for someone else, officials claimed that the man owed hundreds of thousands of ringgit.

Then, in an effort to assist, his wife borrowed a sizable amount from an application for cash lending, which turned out to be one created by con artists.

Their pain was made worse when she was defrauded of around 1.7 million ringgit.

The father killed his family as a result of the terrible loss.

16 of the 30 fraud community members, including the four people detained in Poipet, have been arrested, according to Pol Gen Surachate.

16 masters of surrogate bank accounts were among the defendants; four of them made money transactions, two kept a list of the addresses, six con artists, and two directors from China, who are still at large.

The other defendants are still being sought by government, according to Pol Gen Surachate.

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Three cities in China cities lift house buying curbs

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BEIJING: Last month, at least three significant Chinese cities lifted restrictions on home purchases as the Asian powerhouse slowly retracted a crackdown on the real estate industry in an effort to boost its economy. Two of the most popular cities in the northern province of Liaoning, Dalian and Shenyang, individuallyContinue Reading