Cash handout faces legal hurdle

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B35 billion fund transfer is improper, according to the pair.

Eligible recipients queue to withdraw their money from a Government Savings Bank branch at the start of the first phase of the 10,000-baht cash handout, on Oct 1 last year.
On October 1st, last year, a group of eligible consumers waited to withdraw their money from a Government Savings Bank tree at the start of the second phase of the 10,000-baht money flyer.

The government is facing a fresh legal challenge after a complaint was sent to the NACC to request that it look into a 35-billion-baht total used to pay for its 10, 000-baht cash handout.

The latest government officials, former Srettha Thavisin administration officials, as well as the legislators and MPs who supported the budget costs for the 2025 fiscal year are among those who are implicated in the case.

The petition was signed by Jade Donavanik, a previous democratic writing commission director, Somchai Swangkarn, a former legislator, and Charnchai Issarasenarak, a former Democrat MP.

They charged these government officials, Members, and senators with breaking both Part 144 of the law and Area 88 of the Anti-Corruption Act, which is the network’s fundamental laws.

Mr. Charnchai and Mr. Jade have requested that the NACC conduct an investigation into the situation, and if the investigation finds sufficient grounds, it may refer the situation to the Constitutional Court for decision-making.

The House approved the 3.75-trillion-baht resources costs for the 2025 fiscal year, according to Mr. Charnchai, in its first reading of the bill on June 21, next year.

A 35 billion baht resources will be used to pay debts to state-run banks under Part 28 of the Financial and Fiscal Discipline Act, according to the government led by the then-prime secretary, Mr. Srettha, before the next studying. To finance the 10,000-baht cash handout scheme, it was diverted to a central fund.

Despite the constitution forbidding such actions, the House committee that was looking at the budget consented.

The decision, according to the former MP, had an impact on several state-run banks, including the Government Savings Bank ( 2.68 billion baht ), Government Housing Bank ( 592 million baht ), and the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives ( 2.68 billion baht ).

These budgetary adjustments were originally intended to make up for the loss of revenue generated by the implementation of government initiatives like a farmer’s debt suspension program and a crop price guarantee project.

Under Section 28 of the Financial and Fiscal Discipline Act, Section 144 of the Constitution prohibits the slashing of budget allocations used to fulfill legal obligations, particularly those set aside for bank debt payments.

Additionally, Mr. Charnchai reported that an additional 1.25 billion baht was diverted from the central fund to a fund for former parliamentarians, which was in violation of Section 144 ( 2 ) of the constitution, which forbids MPs or senators from devoting budget allocations for personal benefits.

In its second and third readings, he claimed that the bill received a total of 309 MPs, 175 senators, and 72 committee members who were watching the 2025 budget bill closely. Therefore, Mr. Charnchai said, each of them is connected to the allegation.

According to Mr. Jade, the NACC’s investigation is anticipated to last no longer than two months. The NACC can submit the case to the Constitutional Court if it finds enough evidence in the evidence to support its case, which is expected to take 15 days to consider the case before rendering a decision.

According to observers, the Paetongtarn administration could be involved in the case because the Srettha government’s 10-millibaht cash handout is still being implemented.

The government approved a third phase of the digital wallet program in March, which will give 10, 000 baht to 2.7 million people between the ages of 16 and 20 as part of its economic stimulus package.

As the system designed to make this happen, Ms. Paetongtarn previously stated that digital wallets would be used to distribute and spend this portion of the 10,000-baht giveaway.

Welfare cardholders, those with disabilities, and those over the age of 60 were covered by the first two phases of the program, which included payments made using PromptPay.

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Trump knows exactly what his China trade war means – Asia Times

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The official start of massive global tariffs was announced on Donald Trump’s” Liberation Day” on April 2, 2025, cappiling the start of escalating disclosures since his election as president. Amplifying the financial patriotism of his first term, it marks the climax of Trump’s decades-old campaigning for raising taxes and reviving British market.

His most recent press builds on more than 20 years of earlier political attempts to reform trade in a much more aggressive way. Influenced by Project 2025’s section on fair business by longtime adviser Peter Navarro, it calls for quick, uncompromising business action to reduce deficits, lower bill and reshore production.

Similar to how Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has framed taxes as part of a larger financial rebalancing to recover US industrial and economic supremacy.

Though often stated explicitly, Trump aims to crack the supremacy of China’s export-led financial model, with the understanding that there will be some effects for the US economy.

Although his strategy builds on previous attempts to restructure industry, the public’s understanding of Trump’s agenda and perception of how it is carried out are only moderately supported domestically. The bargain carries the dangers of global financial instability, backlash from allies and handing China even more energy on the international stage.

Protectionism, free industry, and renewed skepticism are all at odds with one another.

From 1798 to 1913, tariffs covered 50 % to 90 % of income and shielded American industry from foreign competitors. Nevertheless, the US sought to restore allied markets and ward off communism by opening its buyer, professional, and capital markets following World War II. Trade imbalances emerged by the 1970s, but abandoning the gold standard in 1971 let the US printing money more quickly and support the imbalance.

The US was convinced that it could continue to control worldwide industry on its own terms after the Cold War’s close in the first 1990s. It pushed for global tariff cuts and free trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement ( NAFTA ), while US corporations helped build up foreign manufacturing, particularly in China, which benefited from preferential trade terms under its most-favored-nation trade status. While corporate profits rose and global overproduction was absorbed by American consumers, many American workers were becoming significantly indebted.

These policies added to the anti-globalization movements of the late 1990s, most visibly at the 1999 World Trade Organization ( WTO ) summit in Seattle, prompting a rethink of trade policy. Domesticated companies like steel were crashing out as a result of cheap imports, and former US President George W. Bush reintroduced steel tariffs quickly in 2002 before the WTO ratified them.

The 2008 global financial crisis brought republican calling for economic reform, with the Obama administration pledging to reshore manufacturing work. Obama later distanced himself from the Trans-Pacific Partnership ( TPP ), a free trade agreement, in a move that Hillary Clinton repeated in her 2016 presidential campaign.

Trump’s first-term business plan broke from the previous prudence. He withdrew from the TPP in 2017 and fought with the WTO, favoring punitive motion, and renegotiated NAFTA. He therefore imposed tariffs on important business partners, especially China. The cost of outsourcing had already gotten clear by that time.

With US multinational support, China had gained investment and technology skills to become the “world’s factory”. Beijing became the world’s top exporter and creditor in 2024 thanks to low-tariff access to the US market, which resulted in a$ 300 billion surplus over America in 2024.

President Biden struck a less aggressive develop upon assuming office in January 2021, but he also raised taxes on China. He aimed to address the issue of his trade deficits with the US, which the EU and Japan did, but the US’s commitment to global unity and its role in global affairs attenuated condemnation. Despite lowering tariffs on Europe, Biden yet passed the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS and Science Act, both criticized by the EU as mercantilist.

Trump’s second-term target has once more targeted allies, but the focus is still on China, with increased tariffs on Beijing and personal tariffs halted on April 9.

Apart from direct exports, Washington also seeks to target China’s role in global business. The limitations of decoupling were exposed by Biden’s force to “nearshore” manufacturing in nations like Mexico, where Chinese companies immediately established themselves in brand-new Latino industrial parks.

Many goods shipped to the US from different countries also contain Chinese elements, meaning Trump’s 10 cent “baseline” tax hike on all imports is meant to counter additional countries serving as conduits for Chinese goods.

In Project 2025, Peter Navarro emphasized the impact of non-tariff barriers like stringent safety standards, customs delays, and local content requirements on US exports. The US uses these, too, and in early February 2025, Trump cited fentanyl smuggling as justification for raising tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada.

Trump’s tariff increases and the resulting supply chain rerouting may prove challenging to reverse even if a more conventional president comes along. Critics question whether this transition can be fast, affordable or effective, but the Covid-19 pandemic proved supply chains can reorient under pressure relatively quickly, just as China showed its agility by setting up operations in Mexico during the 2020s.

Internal dangers

A tariff war will nonetheless raise prices for consumers and businesses, ending the era of cheap global goods that the US economy has depended on for decades.

Countries kept close ties to protect consumer access to the market and invested US dollars in American stocks, bonds, and real estate. Uncertainty over Trump’s policies saw a fake tweet about tariffs on April 7 trigger multi-trillion-dollar swings. Pensions, household wealth, and corporate valuations would be impacted by continued stock volatility or declines.

Some argue that if the stock markets crash, money could flow into and lower the price of US treasuries, reducing their prices and allowing the government to refinance long-term bonds with cheaper debt.

However, many traditional US debt holders may want concessions before continuing to finance it. Treasury yields have already risen, making new debt more expensive, and China, the second-largest holder of US debt, is suspected of shedding bonds to help do so.

China has also retaliated by enforcing its own tariffs and recently halting exports of some rare earths and essential minerals that are essential to modern technologies. Its state-backed firms can flood global markets with cheap goods and advanced tech, squeezing out competitors.

Beijing, which is increasingly present in international organizations and trade blocs, could become a more influential force in shaping global economic norms if these organizations and agreements become more fluid and the US steps back.

Trump also wants to devalue the dollar to make US exports more competitive, but insists on keeping the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, which eases access to cheap debt. Even if no obvious alternative has been found yet, his strategy is undermining global confidence in the dollar.

Trump’s pressure on a resistant Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further reflects limited borrowing options and coordination in US financial policy as he embarks on major economic upheaval.

Democrats have largely avoided serious opposition to Trump’s policies because they believe it may be a losing political strategy. Still, some top members like Chuck Schumer and Gavin Newsom have marked early opposition, along with seven GOP senators who recently voted against Trump’s Trade Review Act.

The US business class, which once viewed China as a promising market but now views it as a rival, has some backing for Trump’s policies. No longer limited to cheap goods, Chinese companies like Temu, Shein, and BYD increasingly threaten giants like Amazon and Tesla.

Any success in restoring manufacturing will largely come from automation rather than high-paying positions, which will benefit major US corporations. Still, decades of cooperation with China means that these businesses remain exposed, with major corporate figures expressing public concern and Elon Musk publicly criticizing Peter Navarro’s role in the tariff push.

Trump has since framed tariffs as a source of revenue to offset other taxes in addition to serving as leverage over trading partners. His 2024 campaign called for cutting the corporate tax rate to 15 %, down from 21 %, already lowered from 35 % during his first term.

However, the anticipated economic boom did not materialize before Covid-19 arrived, and his suggestion that personal income tax be replaced with tariff income is unlikely to produce enough money, even in the most optimistic scenario.

And while the US needs to expand production for both domestic use and exports, current capacity falls far short. While tariffs may encourage new habits in businesses and consumers, blanket protection without government initiatives in infrastructure development, skills training, and research and development risks doing more harm than good, leaving the private sector with little guidance.

Compared to Trump’s unpredictable approach, China and the EU have positioned themselves as stable anchors of the global economy. Due to tariffs and strained ties, US demands to coordinate with major economic allies like the EU and Japan to stifle trade with China, including limiting Chinese imports and preventing its companies from establishing themselves risk falling on deaf ears.

Global risks

A major pillar of global economic stability is also at risk as a result of restricting access to US consumers. The US accounted for roughly 13 % of global import consumption in 2023, acting as a safety valve for global overproduction by absorbing excess goods.

China has pledged to “vigorously boost domestic consumption,” as per the People’s Daily, to help replace American consumers, as it is facing a property crisis, high youth unemployment, and mounting local government debt.

However, its$ 300 billion trade surplus with the US demonstrates how dependent it is and has less room for retaliation. The EU has signaled it will not tolerate a flood of Chinese goods, as it, like the US, increasingly finds itself competing with China in high-end products.

The US has also experienced tariff increases from the EU and Canada. The Trump administration has tested EU unity by courting globalization-skeptic allies like Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, though tensions are likely to deepen before they ease.

The dangers of deindustrialization are being highlighted by Europe’s struggle to maintain support for Ukraine and Russia, a trend that the US is now trying to reverse systematically. And, by targeting allies with tariffs too, the US ensures that any self-inflicted economic pain is matched abroad, making the cost of reshaping trade a shared burden.

A escalating tariff conflict between Canada and China in 2025 is a surefire sign that China’s export-focused model will likely become even more vulnerable. As the US signals a reduced role in safeguarding global maritime trade, already strained by disruptions like Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and rising piracy, geopolitical tensions could disrupt other key routes. Free trade will have to increase shipping and insurance costs without US assistance.

Trump frequently changed tactics in his first term, mixing threats with negotiations. Voices like Kent Lassman’s in Project 2025, calling for a return to free trade, may gain traction if his tariff strategy falters.

But Trump has been warning of trade imbalances since the 1980s, when Japan and West Germany were his main targets. He seems determined to make China the centerpiece of his legacy by focusing on it this time.

Scrapping the old, in his view, unreformable system and embracing whatever follows is based on the belief that the US is best positioned to shape the new system. Which nations will support or be forced to do so at this point?

Whether a complete globalization teardown occurs or not, he appears ready to push as hard as possible within constraints. Dismantling Beijing’s advantages in global trade will not be simple, as evidenced by the fact that a large portion of MAGA’s products still are produced in China.

John P Ruehl is an Australian-American journalist living in Washington, DC and a world affairs correspondent for the Independent Media Institute.

He contributes to a number of foreign affairs publications, and his book,” Budget Superpower: How Russia Challenges the West With an Economy Smaller Than Texas,” was published in December of 2022.

This article was produced by Economy for All, a project of the Independent Media Institute, and is republished with kind permission.

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Balochistan gold rush promises Pakistan mining boom – Asia Times

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Muhammad Ali Tabba, CEO of Lucky Cement and chairman of National Resources Limited ( NRL), revealed what he claimed are the Chagai district of Balochistan’s substantial gold and copper reserves at the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum 2025.

The discovery, which was made in the presence of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Muhammad Asim Munir, could pave the way for Pakistan’s lagging mining sector, at a time when global gold prices are at record peaks of over US$ 3,400 per gram.

NRL, a utterly Pakistani-owned company that operates under the banners of Fatima Fertilizer, Liberty Mills, and Happy Cement, obtained an inquiry force in Chagai in October 2023. Within the span of 18 months, it claims to have found 16 mineral-rich locations spread out over a 500-square-kilometer area, with cutting at the Tang Kor, Chagai site apparently proving the presence of significant deposits.

The largest state in Pakistan by area, Balochistan, is a geographical treasure. The Tethyan Magmatic Arc, a mineral-rich region that stretches from Europe to Southeast Asia and is renowned for its abundance of copper and gold, surrounds the Chagai place.

The nearby Reko Diq mine, which is estimated to have 5.9 billion tonnes of ore, grades 0.42 grams per kilogram of gold and 0.41 % brass, making it one of the largest untapped resources in the world.

First cutting on the NRL Tang Kor website revealed copper concentrations ranging from 0.23 to 0.44 percent, along with traces of gold and silver, to round out this. Three and a half of the three million diamonds drill holes apparently struck mineralized zones, underscoring the deposit’s enormous potential.

Making this finding a prospective lifeline, Pakistan is in a dire financial position with shrinking international currency reserves, mounting debt, and import dependence. The country’s$ 6 trillion in mineral wealth has been largely untapped.

Along with innovations like Reko Diq, where Barrick Gold plans to mine 200, 000 kilograms of brass and 250, 000 ounces of gold annually by 2028, NRL’s discovery had contribute billions to Pakistan’s business and Balochistan’s growth.

The discovery raises age-old questions about good revenue distribution and environmental impact in Balochistan, one of Pakistan’s least developed and generally restive regions.

Cultural Baloch insurgent groups generally target provincial resource and infrastructure investments, in part because they disproportionately favor local communities over Islamabad and its allies ‘ international interests, including Chinese companies.

The partnership between NRL and the Balochistan government and the Special Investment Facilitation Council ( SIFC), as well as a$ 100 million exploration budget for two new licenses, demonstrates a determined effort to make the most of this opportunity.

Balochistan’s abundance of resources contrasts striking with its poverty. The state still has the lowest fundamental human development indicators, accounting for 35 to 45 percent of Pakistan’s natural fuel and brimming with minerals. Around 85 % of the province’s residents lack access to clean water, 75 % have no electricity, and 63 % are impoverished.

However, if handled wisely and fairly, these newly discovered treasures could change Balochistan’s grave tale. The company’s stated goal is to fill these gaps, at least artistically, by promoting community engagement and local employment.

There is law to doubt business promises of trickle-down. For example, the Saindak plant, which has been operating since the 1970s, produces 15, 800 tonnes of brass, 1.5 tonnes of gold, and 2.8 tons of silver yearly, but the benefits are hardly ever felt by locals.

The upside is enormous. According to company estimates, Reko Diq could generate$ 70 billion in free cash flow and$ 90 billion in operating cash flow over the course of a decade. If NRL’s deposits be of this size, their extraction could boost GDP, lead to considerable well-paying jobs, and provide desperately needed infrastructure in Balochistan.

A local person like NRL may keep more money in-country, in contrast to earlier foreign-led initiatives. Its efforts to attract investors and its agreements with the Oil and Gas Development Company ( OGDC ) all point to a scalable strategy.

However, enthusiasm must be at a slack. Balochistan received only 2 % of Saindak’s earnings, despite controversy over revenue cuts and local carelessness in previous projects like Saindak and Reko Diq.

Fair policies, such as guaranteeing royalties, native work, and investments in health, education, and water, are essential for NRL’s victory. Although the Balochistan Development Plan and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor ( CPEC ) Gwadar Port provide a blueprint, fair implementation will be important.

Of course, the financial gain comes with economic considerations. The climate in Baluchistan is as tough as it is delicate, with summers reaching 53°C and seasons reaching -20°C in higher elevations. In Balochistan, mine requires a lot of water and energy, both of which are limited resources.

Saindak has faced criticism for using effluent and residues to pollute water and deplete liquid. The possible processing and drilling by Tang Kor could make these issues worse, especially if NRL chooses to conduct downstream operations that may poison rivers, harm crops, and worsen health crises.

Mining produces 4 to 7 % of the world’s greenhouse gases, with metal production producing about 2.5 tonnes of CO2 per kilogram.

NRL’s production, on par with Reko Diq’s level, could add hundreds of thousands of kilos of emissions annually, straining a region already affected by climate change, such as desert and erratic rains. Mining-related debris could also be harmful to the environment and the general public.

Mine may contribute to Balochistan’s already shaky culture, which could worsen the situation. Severe weather has increased in the province; in 2022, floods destroyed crops and caused thousands of people to flee, and persistent droughts caused arable land to shrink. The drier ecosystem of Chaagai, which is home to sparse vegetation and endangered species like the Balochistan bear, is threatened by mining sprawl.

Water-intensive businesses run the risk of drying up springs and reservoirs, which are essential for nomadic landowners and small farmers. In a state with high tectonic activity, heavy machinery and blasting was destabilize the region’s rugged terrain, raising the risk of landslides.

NRL projects may crumble Balochistan’s delicate environmental balance without careful and thorough planning.

On the other hand, copper could potentially help the world decarbonization because it is so important for alternative technologies like wind farms and electric vehicles. Nearby command at NRL may impose stricter environmental laws than have been applied by foreign companies in the past.

Some advanced mine ‘ use of solar power or water reuse could reduce the damage. To achieve a balance between earnings and survival, the$ 100 million exploration fund could be used to fund conservation research. If NRL contributes perhaps a small amount to Balochistan’s Climate Resilience Fund, it was foster confidence and social cohesion among Chaghi’s indigenous populations.

A good and equitable outcome depends on learning from the past, but NRL’s Chagai consider has the potential to be a turning point for Pakistan and Balochistan. If significant profits remain nearby, the breakthrough may reduce trade dependence, boost foreign dollar reserves, and end Balochistan’s poverty.

The margins are highlighted by the 2025 Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum, which immediately had the attention of Chagai. The potential 15 % interest in Saudi Arabia in Reko Diq and Barrick’s$ 2 billion funding imply that Pakistan’s mineral wealth is ideal for successful removal.

In the end, NRL’s gold and copper reserves are more than just a geographical windfall; they are essential to Pakistan’s effort to achieve equitable and sustained economic progress.

The finding could signal a future where wealth and the environment, not just local leaders or outsiders, are at play in Balochistan. Pakistan and Balochistan must make sure that this promise doesn’t turn into yet another tale of wasted claim.

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IMF: Economic uncertainty is now higher than it was during Covid – Asia Times

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Even among some of the world’s leading economic thinkers, confident predictions are currently hard to come by, according to the International Monetary Fund ( IMF)’s ( IMF) just released its World Economic Outlook.

A fortnight of seminars, presentations, and press events focusing on the worldwide economy, foreign growth, and world financial markets are held each flower in Washington, DC. The IMF releases its global economic growth prediction at both the flower discussions and the annual meetings, which are held each fall.

The IMF has released a foundation estimates and an clause analyzing the tax events that occurred between April 9 and April 14 for its spring meeting in 2025. According to the fund’s report, world GDP will grow by 2.8 % in 2025 and 3.0 % in 2026. For the euro area, growth will be 0.8 % and 1.2 % for 2025 and 2026 respectively.

These projections are significantly revised from IMF data that was released just three months ago. Growth in the euro area is down 0.2 % compared to the fund’s January update, and growth globally is down by 0.5 %.

We live in a much more ambiguous world than we did three months ago, so understanding the most recent IMF document and its negative estimates is essential.

Trump, taxes, and doubt

The term “unpredictable” may be sufficient if one had to total up the new US tax scheme in one word. The largest price increase in modern history occurred on April 2, 2025, referred to as” Liberation Day.”

The US leader next made two more presentations only one year later. Second, a 90-day ban on tax increases, which he allegedly did in search of bilateral treaties with the nations to which he had applied levies above 10 %. Next, that China would not be subject to this restriction, with the price increases on its goods increasing to 145 %.

This freeze means that until July, EU products that are sold to the US will be subject to a 10 % tariff rather than the 20 % that was announced on April 2. The new US administration’s 10 % application is still significantly higher than the standard tariff of 1.34 % that was in effect before April 5th, though.

But what will the price get after these 90 time? What will happen in December? What will happen in two centuries? What products will not be subject to the exemption? How far will China’s trade war with the US come? Nobody knows the answer to all of these issues. The IMF’s flower forecast for this uncertainty is clear.

Confusion is unstoppable.

The world industry doubt index from the IMF is now seven times higher than it was in October 2024, which is significantly higher than the pandemic.

This uncertainty affects the economy more severely than a large but clear tariff. Companies can at least restructure their manufacturing processes with a price, and customers can look for alternative goods. There is a charge, but at least businesses and consumers can make plans.

No one can determine these expenses now, though, because no one is aware of the impact of tariff changes. A US company might choose to purchase a particular product from the EU immediately assuming the price will be 10 %, but it turns out that the price has increased to 100 % once the product has arrived in the US because a political advisor predicted raising tariffs on that product would benefit the US economy.

Although it may seem incredible, the levies are being decided and put into effect in reality. According to one theory, Peter Navarro, the government’s financial advisor and tax idealist, was in another room at the time, so they were only able to persuade Trump to stop new tax increases.

Silence is ultimately the best course of action for both consumers and businesses because of this volatility.

Anxiety and turbulence

It should come as no surprise that financial markets are so unstable because of these regular plan changes. Financial areas are now experiencing levels of uncertainty and anxiety comparable to those seen during Covid-19, despite Trump’s proudly humblingly praising rising share prices soon after the price freeze was announced.

Five years ago, uncertainty was linked to a rise in the demand for US government bonds as a result of the “flight to health” effect, which forces investors to sell higher-risk investments and purchase safer assets like gold and government bonds in times of doubt.

We are now seeing the exact same. Since” Liberation Day,” the price of US bonds has decreased, which indicates that investors are selling them. In other words, the US government’s bill is no longer viewed as a protected asset. This paradigm shift may lead to even more financial volatility in the future given the impact of the money and US bill on global industry.

Supply stores are suddenly bridging.

One thing shares the recent situation with Covid-19, the next big global economic crisis, with the upheaval of global supply chains. Production was compelled to cease during the pandemic due to confinement. It is the imposition of tariffs as of right now.

There is, nevertheless, a second significant change. People were aware that there would only be so long before vaccines would be accessible and normal would return during Covid. Today, President Trump’s own advisors sell him all kinds of plans to protect US economical interests, hardly any disease, but rather instability in financial markets.

At the Universitat de Barcelona, Sergi Basco is the head of economics.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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Five cards China holds in a trade war with the US

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Exactly 19 minutes before
Koh Ewe

BBC News

Getty Images A hand holds a small Trump figurine, showing the US President in a navy suit and red tie, with a raised hand and open mouthGetty Images

The two biggest markets of the world are currently engaged in a business war that is in full swing.

Beijing has responded with a 125 % tax on American goods, and Chinese exports to the US are subject to up to 245 % tariffs. As consumers, businesses, and industry are preparing for more doubt as the likelihood of a global slowdown has increased.

The government of Chinese President Xi Jinping has consistently vowed to engage in dialogue but warned that if necessary, it may “fight to the close.”

What tools does Beijing have to fight US President Donald Trump’s taxes, let’s take a look.

China may bear the brunt ( to some extent ).

Getty Images A worker produces lanterns at a factory in Yantai, in eastern China's Shandong province on January 8, 2024.Getty Images

Because China is the second-largest economy in the world, it is better deal with the effects of the taxes than other smaller nations.

With more than a billion individuals, it also has a sizable local industry, which might relieve producers who are struggling with taxes.

Because Chinese citizens aren’t spending enough, Beijing is also fumbling with the codes. However, with a variety of opportunities, such as subsidies for home appliances and” silver trains” for traveling taxpayers, that may change.

And Trump’s tariffs have given the Chinese Communist Party an yet stronger push to access the nation’s consumer possible.

The command does “very also be prepared to bear the pain to prevent capitulating to what they perceive to be US aggression,” Mary Lovely, a Peterson Institute in Washington DC, told BBC Newshour earlier this month.

China has a higher level for suffering as an authoritarian government because it is less concerned with short-term public opinion. There is no vote scheduled to decide its rulers right now.

Turmoil is still a priority, especially given that there is now unease over an ongoing housing problems and job losses.

For younger people who have only ever witnessed a rising China, the taxes ‘ economic uncertainty is yet another blow.

State media has urged people to “weather storms up,” while the Party has been making appeal to patriotic sentiments to support its retaliatory tariffs.

Although Xi Jinping may be concerned, Beijing has maintained a confident and resolute tone thus far. The clouds won’t fall, according to a government official.

China has made an investment in the future.

Getty Images A worker inspects an electric car at a Zeekr factory in Meishan Island in Ningbo, in China's eastern Zhejiang Province on April 18, 2025. The photo shows a row of silver-coloured vehicles at a factory. Getty Images

China has always been regarded as the country’s stock, but it has invested billions to advance.

It has been in a competition for it dominance with the US under Xi.

It has heavily invested in local technology, from bits to AI to renewable energy.

Examples include the chatbot DeepSeek, which was praised as a formidable rival to ChatGPT, and BYD, which defeated Tesla last year to become the world’s largest electric vehicle ( EV ) maker. Apple has been losing market share to regional rivals like Huawei and Vivo, who have traditionally been its customers.

Beijing recently announced plans to invest more than$ 1 billion over the next ten years to promote AI innovation.

US businesses have tried to relocate their supply chains away from China, but they have found it difficult to find the same level of skilled labor and equipment abroad.

Chinese manufacturers have given the nation a decades-long benefits that may take time to simulate at every level of the supply chain.

Beijing has been preparing for this trade conflict in some ways since Trump’s past word, thanks to its unmatched supply chain skills and state aid.

Trump 1: Training

Getty Images Vietnam's General Secretary of the Communist Party To Lam (R) receives China's President Xi Jinping during a ceremonial welcome at the Presidential Palace in Hanoi on April 14, 2025. Both men are in dark suits as children around them wave Vietnam's flag.Getty Images

Beijing has stepped up its plans for a potential beyond a US-led world attempt since Trump levies hit Chinese solar panel again in 2018.

To strengthen ties with the so-called International South, it has invested billions in a controversial business and network program known as the Belt and Road initiative.

China is trying to extricate itself from the US as a result of the expansion of trade with South East Asia, Latin America, and Africa.

American farmers used to import 40 % of China’s soybeans, but that percentage now hovers at 20 %. Beijing stepped up soybean production at home after the last trade war and purchased record amounts of the crop from Brazil, the country’s top soybean supplier.

The technique kills two birds with one stone. According to Marina Yue Zhang, associate professor at the University of Technology Sydney’s Australia-China Relations Institute, it deprives America’s land belt of a once-captive industry and burnishes China’s reputation for food safety.

The US no longer holds the top position for exports in China; it now belongs in South East Asia. In reality, China was the world’s largest trading partner in 2023, almost twice as many as the US. It was the biggest exporter in the world at the end of 2024, recording a document surplus of$ 1tn.

That doesn’t imply that China needs to trade with the US, the largest economy in the world, in a meaningful way. However, it does indicate that Washington’s decision to support China into a part won’t remain simple.

Beijing has warned nations against reaching a deal at the cost of China’s interests following reports that the White House may use bilateral trade negotiations to remove China.

For the majority of the planet, that would be a difficult decision.

Tengku Zafrul Aziz, Malaysia’s commerce secretary, told the BBC last month,” We can’t decide, and we will never choose between China and the US.”

China is presently aware of Trump’s timing.

Getty Images A trader walks past holding a tablet on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at the opening bell on April 21, 2025, in New York City. Behind him are blurred blue screens showing the markets and men in black suits. Getty Images

Trump remained steady as stocks fell precipitously in the wake of his abrupt tariff statement in early April, referring to his remarkable levies as “medicine.”

He made a U-turn, though, by suspending the majority of those taxes for 90 days following a sharp decline in US state bonds. Treasuries, also known as Treasuries, have long been regarded as a secure funding. However, trust in the property has been shattered by the business war.

Trump has since suggested that trade hostilities with China may be easing, claiming that there will be significant reductions in tariffs on Chinese products.

Therefore, as authorities claim, Beijing now realizes that Trump may be spooked by the bond market.

US federal bonds totaling$ 700 billion are even held by China. The sole non-US alliance to possess more than that is Japan, a steadfast supporter of the United States.

Some claim that this gives Beijing more influence: Chinese media has frequently criticized the practice of selling or withholding payments of US bonds as a “weapon.”

However, researchers caution against assuming that China will not be completely destroyed by this circumstance.

Instead, it may cause significant losses for Beijing’s assets in the bond market and destabilize the Taiwanese yuan.

China will only be allowed to “only exercise stress” on US government bonds, according to Dr. Zhang. ” China has a bargaining chip, hardly a fiscal tool,” he said.

A snag on unusual rocks

Getty Images A man wearing spectacles and a face mask bending over to look at a circular semiconductor waferGetty Images

Nevertheless, China has a nearly monopoly over what it can weaponize: the extraction and refinement of rare earths, a range of components crucial to innovative tech manufacturing.

China has a lot of these in its tidal deposits, including Yttrium, which provides heat-resistant surface for jet engines, and dysprosium, which is used in magnet in electric cars and wind turbines.

Beijing has previously reacted to Trump’s most recent taxes by limiting exports of some of the rare earths needed for the production of AI cards.

According to estimates from the International Energy Agency ( IEA ), China accounts for about 61 % of rare earths ‘ production and 92 % of their refining.

While Australia, Japan, and Vietnam have begun to mine unique planets, it will take decades before China may leave the supply chain.

China prohibited the trade of another important material, antimony, in 2024, which is essential to various manufacturing processes. In response to a wave of panic buying and a search for alternative suppliers, its value more than doubled.

The rare earths market, which is feared, could experience the same kind of disruption, seriously affecting everything from defense to electric cars.

According to Thomas Kruemmer, chairman of Ginger International Trade and Investment, “everything you can move on or off good works on unusual rocks.”

” The effect will be significant for the US defense business.”

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Mar-a-Lago Accord would end the dollar’s – and America’s – reign – Asia Times

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The US Treasury market has a sell-off as a result of President Donald Trump’s numerous tax presentations, not the least of which was his decision to impose” Liberation Day” mutual tariffs on April 2.

The sell-off, which started on April 5, was largely caused by concerns about tariff-related prices and overly leveraged hedge funds facing percentage names. But most importantly, it demonstrated a rapid market acceptance that Trump is serious about implementing profoundly problematic economic laws.

Investors today think that anything is achievable under Trump, following the courage of the Liberation Day tariffs. The proposed” Mar-a-Lago Accord,” suggested by Stephen Miran, who is currently the head of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, stands out as probably the most destructive statement, even though it is currently unlikely to get implemented.

The valuation of the US dollar, which Miran believes is the biggest issue facing the country’s economy, may lead to an effort to address a Mar-a-Lago Accord, which had aim to increase the US trade deficit and increase production.

His approach would be to convert short-term US Treasuries held by foreign investors to long-term, non-tradable zero-coupon obligations at much lower inherent offer, which would be the equivalent of restructuring US sovereign debt. The outcome would be to lower the cost of funding for the US government as well as to decrease the money.

The proposal’s apparent simplicity contrasts with its possible disastrous effects, which would be a specialized default on US Treasury bonds. Bonds are currently regarded as the country’s safe asset and are currently denominated in the dollar, the reserve currency of the world.

The disruption a move like this could cause would be so wonderful that Miran’s plan has frequently been derided or dismissed, but Trump’s outrageously high mutual taxes, which are officially suspended for 90 time except for China, were not expected sometimes.

So, some buyers are concerned about a potential US king debt restructuring. In a possible Mar-a-Lago Accord model, it should be noted that US Treasury transfers are not the only way to weaken the dollar while lowering the US Treasury’s financing costs.

Miran even suggested that in collaboration with the Treasury, the Federal Reserve may help to lower the cost of loan servicing. Although story provides some examples, Iran did not fully understand how such coordination may lead to lower US Treasury yields.

In order to support US war efforts, the Federal Reserve specifically implemented obvious offer controls in 1942 and 1951. However, the global financial system of the day resembled nothing less than it does today, not just because of its interdependence, where foreign investors own close to 30 % of US royal debts, but also because there were therefore foreign exchange controls and funds account restrictions.

The senator and his economic team should have received a distinct wake-up call from the severity of the Liberation Day sell-off and Trump’s timely decision to halt most of the mutual tariffs to prevent the US economy’s collapse, including the abandoning of US Treasuries.

In theory, this should make Miran’s anticipated Mar-a-Lago Accord even less likely to ever become a reality. No one can deny Trump’s unpredictability, which makes him unaffordable.

Due to the exorbitant privilege of the US as the issuer of the world’s reserve currency, US Treasuries can no longer be regarded as the safest assets in the world. The US’s virtuous circle, which it uses foreign capital to finance its bloated fiscal deficit and trade imbalance, is now in danger. The dollar’s future as the world’s all-powerful reserve currency is also uncertain. &nbsp,

As the Treasuries sell-off demonstrated, firting with the dollar’s reserve currency role is even more dangerous than imposing sky-high tariffs on trading partners. In fact, assuming that market forces will still be allowed to operate freely in the future, market forces appear to be the best defense the US economy has against poorly thought-out and bad policies.

Bruegel’s senior research fellow, Alicia Garcia Herrero, is the country’s chief economist for Asia-Pacific, and a professor in the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology’s adjunct program.

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Fire guts spa complex at Chiang Mai’s Dhara Dhevi Hotel

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PUBLISHED: 23 Apr 2025 at 11: 42

UPDATED: 23 Apr 2025 at 12: 13

Fire guts the Dhara Dhevi Hotel spa complex in Muang district, Chiang Mai, early Wednesday morning. (Photo: Pubic Relations Department)
Early on Wednesday morning, fire destroys the Dhara Dhevi Hotel resort complicated in Muang area, Chiang Mai. ( Photo: Department of Public Relations )

Early on Wednesday night in the Muang area, a hearth destroyed the salon advanced at the heavily reliant Lanna-style Dhara Dhevi Hotel. No injuries were reported.

Around 2 a.m., the fire was reported. Numerous fire departments and vehicles came out.

They had to put out two days to stop the incident. &nbsp,

The wooden resort difficult tower at the front of the hotel was destroyed by the flames. It was undergoing renovation.

In a 153-rai element, the five-star hotel is located. It was previously shut down because of economic issues. It sold at auction for 2.11 billion ringgit. The hotel’s debt burden was estimated to be$ 4. 3 billion baht.

The flames destroyed the restaurant’s two-story resort complex, according to Surin Thakerd, associate mayor for &nbsp, tambon Tha Sala. No one was present at the scene of the fireplace.

The industry and cafe areas are now back in use at the Dhara Dhevi Hotel, which was partially reopened.

Siam Estate Dhara Dhevi Co spent 3.9 billion dollars to acquire the resort. The ruined resort advanced spanned about 2, 000 flat meters. The power source had been disconnected and the system was closed.

According to a public works standard, the fire did not have an impact on local neighborhoods.

More than 3 billion ringgit was spent on the construction of the Dhara Dhevi Hotel in 2002. It opened in 2004, offering 123 host suites.

The resort has had to look for new buyers because of a number of financial problems it has encountered since its launch.

Due to the impact of the Covid-19 crisis, it’s issues continued, though, forcing it to reveal a “temporary” closure.

The debris stands after the fire. Public Relations Department

The Dhara Dhevi Hotel salon complex’s burned-out remains. ( Photo provided )

2014 photos of the Dhara Dhevi Hotel

2014 photos of the Dhara Dhevi Hotel

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China’s plastic surgery boom: ‘I’ve had 100 operations and will never stop’

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32 minutes ago
Natalia Zuo

BBC Eye

BBC A young woman with a surgically-enhanced face, wearing a pink jumper, stares at the camera. White lines have been imposed over her face by a cosmetic surgery app called SoYoung BBC

Abby Wu was just 14 when she had cosmetic surgery for the first time.

After receiving hormone treatment for an illness, Abby’s weight increased from 42kg (6 stone 8lbs) to 62kg (9 stone 11lbs) in two months.

The change hadn’t gone unnoticed by her drama teacher.

“My teacher said, ‘You were our star but now you’re too fat. Either give up or lose weight fast,'” recalls Abby, who was preparing for her drama exams at the time.

Abby’s mother stepped in, taking her to get liposuction to remove fat from her belly and legs.

Abby remembers her mother’s words as she waited in the clinic in a hospital gown, nervous about the impending operation.

“Just be brave and walk in. You’ll become pretty once you’re out.”

The surgery was traumatic. Abby was only given partial anaesthesia and remained conscious throughout.

“I could see how much fat was extracted from my body and how much blood I was losing,” she says.

Family handout A teenage girl with shoulder-length hair, dressed in a swimsuit, stands behind a rubber ring, with a beach behind herFamily handout

Now 35, Abby has gone on to have more than 100 procedures, costing half a million dollars.

She co-owns a beauty clinic in central Beijing and has become one of the most recognisable faces of China’s plastic surgery boom.

But the surgeries have come at a physical cost.

Sitting in front of a mirror inside her luxury duplex apartment in Beijing, she gently dabs concealer onto bruises from a recent face-slimming injection – a procedure she undergoes monthly to help her face appear “firmer and less chubby” after three jaw reduction surgeries removed too much bone.

But she insists she has no regrets about the surgeries and believes her mother made the right decision all those years ago.

“The surgery worked. I became more confident and happier, day by day. I think my mum made the right call.”

Abby Wu A young woman with a thick brown plaster stretching across almost the entirety of her nose and much of her face. A white bandage is wrapped around the edge of her face, including her chin, and there are signs of bruising and blood on parts of her face. Abby Wu

Once seen as taboo, plastic surgery has exploded in popularity over the last 20 years in China, fuelled by rising disposable incomes and shifts in social attitudes, in large part driven by social media.

Every year, 20 million Chinese people pay for cosmetic procedures.

Overwhelmingly, it is young women who seek surgery. Eighty per cent of patients are women and the average age of someone receiving surgery is 25.

While appearance has always been important in Chinese culture, particularly for women, beauty standards in the country are changing.

For years, the most sought-after features were a blend of Western ideals, anime fantasy and K-Pop inspiration: The double eyelid, the sculpted jawline, the prominent nose, and the symmetrical face.

But lately, more disturbing procedures are on the rise – chasing an unrealistic, hyper-feminine, almost infantile ideal.

Botox is now injected behind the ears to tilt them forward, creating the illusion of a smaller, daintier face.

Lower eyelid surgery, inspired by the glassy gaze of anime heroines, widens the eyes for an innocent, childlike look.

Upper lip shortening narrows the space between lip and nose, thought to signal youth.

But much of this beauty is built for the screen. Under filters and ring lights, the results can look flawless. In real life, the effect is often uncanny – a face not quite human, not quite child.

TikTok Three images of women on social media show various toxic beauty standards. On the left a woman reaches her hand behind her back and touches her tummy button. In the middle image a woman dressed in tiny shorts and a crop-top looks very thin. In the third image, a woman stacks dozens of coins in a gap in her collar boneTikTok
SoYoung A huge crowd of attractive women in white dresses are stood bare-foot on the soft sands of a beach, staring at the cameraSoYoung

Cosmetic surgery apps like SoYoung (New Oxygen) and GengMei (More Beautiful) – claiming to offer algorithm-driven analysis of “facial imperfections” – have been surging in popularity.

After scanning and assessing users’ faces, they provide surgery recommendations from nearby clinics, taking a commission from each operation.

These and other beauty trends are shared and promoted by celebrities and influencers on social media, rapidly changing what’s considered desirable and normal.

As one of China’s earliest cosmetic surgery influencers, Abby has documented her procedures across major social media platforms and joined SoYoung soon after it launched.

Yet despite having undergone more than 100 procedures, when she scans her face using SoYoung’s “magic mirror” feature, the app still points out “imperfections” and suggests a long list of recommended surgeries.

“It says I have eye bags. Get a chin augmentation? I’ve done that.”

Abby seems amused.

“Nose-slimming? Should I get another nose surgery?”

Unlike typical e-commerce sites, beauty apps like SoYoung also offer a social media function. Users share detailed before-and-after diaries and often ask superusers like Abby for their advice.

‘My skin felt like there was cement underneath’

To meet surging demand, clinics are opening up rapidly across China.

But there’s a shortage of qualified practitioners and large numbers of clinics are operating without a licence.

According to a report by iResearch, a marketing research firm, as of 2019, 80,000 venues in China were providing cosmetic procedures without a licence and 100,000 cosmetic practitioners were working without the right qualifications.

As a result, it’s estimated that hundreds of accidents are happening every day inside Chinese cosmetic surgery clinics.

Dr Yang Lu, a plastic surgeon and owner of a licensed cosmetic surgery clinic in Shanghai, says in recent years the number of people coming for surgeries to repair botched operations has been growing.

“I’ve seen many patients whose first surgery was botched because they went to unlicensed places,” Dr Yang says.

“Some even had surgery inside people’s homes.”

A woman in clinical clothing smiles at a woman in a patterned dress

Yue Yue, 28, is among those to have surgery that went badly wrong.

In 2020 she received baby face collagen injections – designed to make the face appear more plump – from an unlicensed clinic opened by a close friend. But the fillers hardened.

“My skin felt like there was cement underneath,” she says.

Desperate to undo the damage, Yue Yue turned to clinics she found through social media – well-known names – but the repairs only made things worse.

One clinic attempted to extract the filler using syringes. Instead of removing the hardened material, they extracted her own tissue, leaving her skin loose.

Another clinic tried lifting the skin near her ears to reach the filler underneath, leaving her with two long scars and a face that looked unnaturally tight.

“My entire image collapsed. I lost my shine and it’s affected my work [in human resources for a foreign company in Shanghai] too.”

She found Dr Yang through SoYoung last year and has since undergone three repair surgeries, including for her eyelids which were damaged during a previous operation by another clinic.

But while Dr Yang’s surgeries have brought visible improvements, some of the damage from the botched procedures may be permanent.

“I don’t want to become prettier any more,” she says.

“If I could go back to how I looked before surgery, I’d be quite happy.”

‘It ruined my career’

Every year, tens of thousands like Yue Yue fall victim to unlicensed cosmetic clinics in China.

But even some licensed clinics and qualified surgeons aren’t following the rules strictly.

In 2020, actress Gao Liu’s botched nose operation – in which the tip of her nose turned black and died – went viral.

“My face was disfigured and I was very down. It ruined my acting career.”

She had received the nose surgery at a licensed Guangzhou clinic called She’s Time’s from Dr He Ming, who was described as its “chief surgeon” and a nose surgery expert.

But in reality Dr He was not fully qualified to perform the surgery without supervision and had not obtained his licensed plastic surgeon status from the Guangdong Provincial Health Commission.

Authorities fined the clinic, which closed soon after the scandal, and barred Dr He from practising for six months.

However, weeks before She’s Time’s was officially dissolved, a new clinic, Qingya, requested to register at the same address.

Gao Liu A young woman's face shows the tip of her nose has turned blackGao Liu

BBC Eye has found strong links between She’s Time’s and Qingya, such as the same Weibo account and the retention of several staff, including Dr He.

The BBC has also learned that Dr He only obtained the licensed plastic surgeon qualification in April 2024, even though he was technically barred from applying for the status for five years from the date he was sanctioned in 2021.

Qingya now claims to have opened 30 branches.

Dr He, Qingya and Guangdong Provincial Health Commission did not respond to the BBC’s requests for comment.

The Chinese Embassy in the UK said: “The Chinese government consistently requires enterprises to operate in strict compliance with national laws, regulations, and relevant policy provisions.”

Four years and two repair operations later, Gao Liu’s nose remains uneven.

“I really regret it. Why did I do it?”

China’s Central Health Commission has been trying to crack down on the issue of under-qualified health practitioners performing tasks beyond their expertise in recent years – including ordering local health bodies to improve regulation and issuing stricter guidelines – but problems persist.

From job offer to debt and surgery – within 24 hours

In today’s China, looking good is important for professional success.

A quick search on popular job recruitment platforms reveals many examples of employers listing physical requirements for roles, even when they have little to do with the actual work.

One receptionist role asks for candidates to be “at least 160cm tall and aesthetically pleasing”, while an administrative job demands “an appealing look and an elegant presence”.

And now that pressure is being exploited by a growing scam in some Chinese clinics in which vulnerable young women are offered jobs, but only if they pay for expensive surgeries carried out by their would-be employers.

Da Lan, not her real name, applied for a “beauty consultant” job at a clinic in Chengdu, south-western China, on a popular recruitment website in March 2024.

After the interview, she was offered the position that same evening.

But she says when she began her role the next morning, she was taken to a small room by her manager, who scanned her up and down and gave her an ultimatum – get cosmetic work done or lose out on the job.

Da Lan says she was given less than an hour to decide.

Under pressure, she agreed to undergo double eyelid surgery – priced at over 13,000 yuan (£1,330) – more than three times the monthly salary of the role – with more than 30% annual interest.

She says staff took her phone and used it to apply for a so-called “beauty loan,” falsifying her income details. Within a minute, the loan was approved.

By noon, she was undergoing medical tests. An hour later, she was on the operating table.

From job offer to debt and surgery – all within 24 hours.

The surgery did nothing for her job prospects. Da Lan says her manager belittled her, shouting her name in public and swearing at her.

She quit after just a few weeks. Looking back, she believes the job was never real.

“They wanted me to leave from the beginning,” she says.

Despite having worked there for more than 10 days, she was paid only 303 yuan ($42). With help from her friends, Da Lan paid off the debt for her surgery after six months.

BBC Eye spoke to dozens of victims, and met three including Da Lan in Chengdu, a city that has set out to become China’s “capital of cosmetic surgery”. Some have been trapped in much larger debt for years.

The clinic Da Lan says scammed her had previously been reported by other graduates and exposed by local media, but it remains open and is still recruiting for the same role.

This scam isn’t limited to clinic jobs – it’s creeping into other industries.

Some live-streaming companies pressure young women to take out loans for surgery, promising a shot at influencer fame.

But behind the scenes, these firms often have undisclosed agreements with clinics – taking a cut from every applicant they send to the operating table.

Three young women with surgically-enhanced faces, having tea and cakes together, pose for a selfie

In a bohemian-style café in Beijing, the perfect setting for a selfie, Abby meets her friends for coffee.

The trio adjust their poses and edit their faces in great detail – extending eyelashes and reshaping their cheekbones.

When asked what they like most about their facial features, they hesitate, struggling to name a single part they wouldn’t consider altering.

The conversation turns to chin implants, upper-lip shortening, and nose surgery.

Abby says she’s thinking about another nose job – her current one is six years old – but surgeons are finding it difficult to operate.

“My skin isn’t as stretchable after so many procedures. The doctors don’t have much to work with. You can’t give them enough fabric for a vest and expect a wedding dress.”

The metaphor lingers in the air, underscoring the toll taken by all of the operations.

But despite everything, Abby has no plans to stop.

“I don’t think I’ll ever stop my journey of becoming more beautiful.”

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Trump trade war: It’s worse than a crime, it’s a blunder – Asia Times

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Say you may think me

I can’t consider, my heart did break

‘Cause I made a terrible blunder

A terrible blunder

– Gareth Gates

Upon reading of the abduction and murder of the Duc d’Enghien for plotting against Napoleon, French minister Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord, bracing for political consequences, quipped, “It’s worse than a murder, it ’s a wrongdoing. ”

In the affairs of man, errors are forgiven while acts are punished. In the affairs of state, crimes are inexcusable while errors can prove fatal. Many countries have ceased to exist because of failures. And behind some wonderful nations is a long-forgiven offense.  

Heavy is the king of the sage sovereign, virtuous in private affairs but depraved on behalf of country. But what about the queen of the dumb royal – lurid in private life, depraved on the world stage and, worst of all, susceptible to wrongdoing?

Winston Churchill when quipped, “Americans can always be trusted to do the proper issue, after all other options have been exhausted. ”

Otto von Bismarck channeled the same thought when he said, “There is heaven that protects stupid, tramps, kids and the United States of America. ”

This concept is also the theme of F Scott Fitzgerald’s “The Great Gatsby”, “They were thoughtless people, Tom and Daisy– they smashed up things and creatures and therefore retreated again into their money or their great carelessness or whatever it was that kept them up, and let other people clean up the mess they had made. ”

Churchill, Bismarck and Fitzgerald understood that America had the pleasure for all kinds of gross and careless behavior. Providence saw to it that local Americans had little to no resistance to Western conditions, opening up a huge globe for the easiest growth in the background of empires – from sea to shining sea.

Providence allowed Franklin Roosevelt to saunter into WWII in its fourth act, participate in mop-up operations and declare victory. Providence allowed America to kick the legs out from under Japan in the 1980s and then ride Chinese and Indian PhDs into the internet age. Providence allowed Wall Street to securitize everything, sell bits and pieces to foreigners and buy bass boats for suburban dads.  

This is Peter Zeihan’s America – a vast, sparsely populated continental economy with convenient river systems and coasts on two oceans, blessed with energy, mineral and agricultural riches.

But of late, Zeihan’s America has been squandering its blessings on foreign wars and living beyond its means at home. And now, under President Donald Trump, America is squaring up for an economic showdown against what is certainly not Zeihan’s China ( i. e. , the one that collapsed in 2022 ).  

Churchill’s powers of imagination are no match for all the possible follies Trump can cook up before exhausting himself. And the providence that has protected America is surely being stretched as Tom and Daisy smash things up with US$ 37 trillion of debt.

All thi<del>s</del> non<del>s</del>en<del>s</del>e, thi<del>s</del> <in<del>s</del>>S</in<del>s</del>><del>s</del>turm und Ddrang – the Liberation Day tariff<del>s</del>, threatening to annex Canada and Greenland, <del>s</del>ending migrant<del>s</del> to pri<del>s</del>on in El <in<del>s</del>>S</in<del>s</del>>alvador, cru<del>s</del>hing <del>s</del>tate capacity with DOGE, laying <del>s</del>iege to elite univer<del>s</del>itie<del>s</del> etc, etc– i<del>s</del> Trump <del>s</del>peed-running all other po<del>s</del><del>s</del>ibilitie<del>s</del> becau<del>s</del>e he, and the re<del>s</del>t of America, know<del>s</del> that the right thing i<del>s</del> too little, too late, too difficult and might not work even if attempted.

The smartest thing America can do is skip to the right thing without going through this destructive trial and error. But like those 20 pounds you mean to lose, those cigarettes you mean to give up and those websites you mean to stop visiting, the right thing is easier said than done – especially when one has serious doubts that it can be done at all.

America is facing a China that planted its tree at the best time – 30 years ago – with the panicked realization that the best it can do is plant its tree today. China ’s universities now produce ~1. 7 million engineers per year, an eightfold increase since the turn of the century and approximately 6. 7 times the ~250,000 engineers graduating from American universities.

All of China ’s achievements are downstream of education. What did people think would happen when Chinese universities increased student enrollment tenfold? Adult education programs quadrupled China ’s literacy rate under Mao, setting up the nation’s workforce for Deng’s market reforms. It’s human capital all the way down.  

And, of course, Trump’s exploration of all possible follies includes rampaging through the crown jewel of America’s education system – its world-class research universities. Eradicating the woke mind virus from higher education may be a justifiable political goal, but to do so by holding research funding hostage and demonizing international students is the height of madness.

The bond vigilantes can immediately force a President’s hand. The international graduate student mob can cause far more damage to America’s long-term economic viability. International students make up half of America’s STEM graduate students. This is a testament to both America’s superb universities and the decrepit state of its public education system.

The pain of increasing 10-year Treasury yields is instantly felt by all borrowers. The loss of international PhD students will fly under the radar, but the loss of economic dynamism as American science and technology withers could not be more calamitous.

China has pulled ahead of the US in science and technology – probably by a significant margin. This is already difficult for many Americans to accept, but the data is clear. Among the top 20 global research universities ranked by Nature, 14 are Chinese and four are American.

Graphic: Asia Times

According to a recent report published by the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI), out of ten major research fields, China leads in seven ( chemistry, agriculture, environment and ecology, electrical engineering and computer science, engineering and materials science and earth science ). The US leads in three ( clinical and life sciences, physics and arts and humanities ).

According to the report, China is now producing more top 1 % papers with fewer total papers published than the US in fields such as chemistry, agriculture, environment and ecology, and electrical engineering. China ’s Ministry of Science and Technology has spent the past decade tweaking incentives like phasing out government payments for publications to improve efficiency.    

All of this is confirmed downstream as China rockets up the value chain to lead industry after industry ( e. g. 5G equipment, shipbuilding, cars, solar power, batteries, nuclear power, high-speed rail ) and create new ones along the way ( e. g. consumer drones, cashless economy, super apps ).

So what is this all about? As crazy as things are, Trump’s second-term nuthouse is just an absurd magnification of the China anxiety carried over from the first Trump term with continuity through the Biden interregnum. Trump’s second time around just has fewer guardrails on his lunatic imagination.

This is all about an America that knows it cannot win but will not go down without a fight. There is no way any economist can look at energy consumption and industrial output charts and honestly believe the US can close the China gap.

There is no way Pentagon strategists can look at China ’s 250x shipbuilding capacity advantage and honestly believe that the US can maintain its forward military position in Asia. There is no way that National Science Foundation wonks can look at the trajectory of China ’s tertiary education and honestly believe that the US will not be a distant second in science and technology.

Graphic: Asia Times

Unfortunately, there is a difference between losing and losing even worse. There is a price to pay for not going down without a fight. Trump’s economic war with China is a blunder of historic, perhaps civilizational, proportions.

Because a second-place America is so distasteful to certain parts of the US psyche, Trump is obliged to choose losing even worse. On some level, America rationally understands that it cannot win with the hand it holds and because of that, the only option is to chimp out, throw everything at the wall – chip sanctions, tariffs, alliances, libelous accusations – and lose spectacularly, irrationally and cathartically.

Apologies MAGA folks, Trump is not playing 5D chess. America will soon fold in its foolish economic war with China. In the next few months, large swathes of American industry will shut down as prices of intermediate goods surge and supply of rare earth and other crucial inputs dries up. Store shelves will empty out and inflation will skyrocket. Whoever believed that deficit economies with a deficient industrial base had leverage will eat humble pie.

Whatever face-saving climb-down Chinese President Xi Jinping offers President Trump will be understood by all to mean the US has surrendered global economic leadership to China. Treasuries will embed a permanent “moron premium”, American universities will fall in the league tables and America’s global alliances will come undone – slowly at first, then suddenly.

This is, mind you, the best-case scenario. Permanent damage has already been done. The worst-case scenario will veer off from the blunder of a trade war to something more sinister and criminal. We can all use our imaginations for the possible combinations and permutations of worst-case outcomes.

How bad would surrendering economic leadership to China be? Much of it is just accepting reality. China is already a far bigger economy than the US ( see here ). People who insist otherwise have just led the US into an unwinnable trade war.

China already leads in science and technology. No one is denying that America has made a greater contribution to science than China in the past – far greater. It’s just that China will contribute more in the future – far more.

Second place is not something that should embarrass any American. The nation still has the magnificent physical endowments that Zeihan correctly points out. It’s just that the people have been run ragged by decades of foreign wars, political capture by capital and political division.

Zeihan gets China wrong because he refuses to appreciate the breathtaking leveling up of the nation’s human capital. That is also his blind spot for America, whose human capital has been stagnant at best.

Liberated from the burden of being number one, which has largely been a pretense anyway, America can finally surrender to the generosity of providence and do the right thing for its citizens – come home, circle wagons, lick wounds and get around to planting that tree.

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Trump’s misguided and deluded tariff crusade – Asia Times

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The financial advisors of Donald Trump see tariffs as a magic cure for America’s problems, as well as a chance to revive manufacturing, stabilize the dollar as the reserve currency, and reduce exploding public debt.

However, this strategy is based on conflicting financial goals that defy logic and are a property of accounts. Reciprocal taxes, including a staggering 145 % on China, perhaps bring in money for the government, but they also run the risk of long-term stagnation and fractious alliances because they fail to target America’s fundamental economic imbalances.

Trade partners like the EU and India face a significant threat of global economic integration as a result of the tax policy, which could stifle decades of economic development and alleviation around the world.

1.) Bringing back manufacturing

Trump’s team claims that American manufacturing has been harmed by China’s money manipulation, technology theft, and affordable exports.

According to them, offshoring destroyed 50 million American employment, a figure that was exacerbated by the impact of automation at once. However, digital photography replaced analog jobs, e-readers replaced printing, and robotics redefined recently manual assembly procedures—a fact that Trump’s advisors can’t seem to deny.

Manufacturing made up 11 % of the US GDP in 2024, down from 20 % in the 1980s, a decline that was caused by US technological advancement, US failures to retrain its workforce, and changing global supply chains.

Taxes aim to entice factories again and promise to restore America’s “great again” by preventing imports from domestic producers.

2.) preserving the dollar’s position of power

The economy’s position as the world’s reserve currency is also given precedence in the policy. Through BRICS , China and Russia are looking into options, which has prompted Trump to rely on taxes as a barrier.

Trump pledged 100 % tariffs on all countries pursuing de-dollarization in his inaugural address in January 2025. This threat has now materialized, with 14 % tariffs on China and various other countries ‘ levels within 90 days.

These tactics aim to intimidate trading partners into continuing to deal with the dollar while preserving the US’s ability to use profitably. India is at a high risk because of tariffs, which could stymie its ability to access National markets and stymie its export-driven development, with$ 120 billion in US business and$ 437 billion in full global exports by 2024.

3.) reducing debts and funding tax breaks

Lastly, Trump’s administration intends to pay off the country’s$ 36.21 trillion public debt, which is projected to total$ 50 trillion by 2035, while allowing for tax breaks for the wealthy and those making under$ 150,000.

Price income, which is expected to be$ 300 billion annually, is expected to cover these expenses and help maintain the strength of US Treasury securities by keeping the money strong. This trifecta of industrial revival, dollar dominance, and debt management appears strong but falters under scrutiny because each objective undermines the other in a jumble of monetary contradictions.

Contrasts in economics

A review of shared exclusion is the pursuit of a strong dollar and a rebound in manufacturing. A solid dollar drives up the price of US products, pricing them out of trade industry. US exports of goods totaled$ 2 trillion in 2023, less than China’s$ 3 trillion, a gap that was made wider by America’s higher wages and currency strength.

The 1985 Plaza Accord, which devalued the dollar by 50 % against the Japanese yen, helped US exports by 20 % in three years, demonstrating that a weaker dollar is necessary for the revival of manufacturing.

However, devaluing the dollar today would weaken its reserve currency because global central banks, which have an estimated$ 7 trillion in reserves, might convert to euros, yuan, or yen, cutting down demand for US Treasury bonds.

The industry balance and foreign investment in US Treasury securities are in conflict. Because trade deficits, which total$ 400 billion for China in 2023, create dollar reserves, countries like China, Japan, and South Korea, which together hold trillions of dollars worth of US bonds, invest.

Great taxes reduce these deficits by stifling US exports, which results in lower bond purchases. Local use, not just foreign business strategies, contributes to the$ 918 billion trade deficit in the US in 2024.

Taxes could lead to US inflation, which is projected to rise to 3 % in 2025, causing Fed rate increases that could halt economic growth and send a struggling economy into recession. The Fed issued a price cut announcement in 2024, but a weaker money or lower provides did dissuade bond investors, making debt management even more challenging.

The tension between the dollar’s power, Fed rates, and friendship appeal adds yet another layer of vacuity. A strong dollar maintains bond desire, but price reductions lower yields, which frightens foreign investors.

If inflation rises, which will lead to price increases, lending becomes more expensive, creating a tighter governmental buffer for income cuts. These contradictions highlight the vulnerability of the policy: tariffs that aim to revive manufacturing could potentially sabotage other goals like debt financing. Hence, the policy runs the risk of delving into the very goals it aims to achieve.

No unusual villains, but structural flaws.

Trump’s team claims that the trade deficit is the result of a story by foreigners to lie on the US, including China, the EU, Mexico, and Canada, but that America’s fundamental squander is the real culprit. The US runs a$ 2 trillion fiscal deficit of 6 % of GDP in 2024 because it uses more than its means.

The economy’s supply position, which encourages this” spend-now, pay-later” culture, contributes to the current account deficit, as well as the business gap. Compared to China, American households save only 3 % of GDP, while government deficits, which have grown due to tax breaks and subsidies, increase the imbalance.

Both the Republican and Democratic parties bear the brunt of the blame, favoring rich lobby groups and adopting policies that favor profit increases. A Senate-amended budget resolution that authorized$ 5.3 trillion in tax cuts,$ 521 billion in spending increases on defense and immigration, at least$ 4.2 billion in spending cuts, and a$ 5 trillion debt limit increase was approved by the House of Representatives on April 10, 2025.

With international central banks holding$ 7 trillion in resources, the US can borrow cheaply because of the economy’s pleasure. However, this conceals the root cause of persistent US spending. With a$ 2 trillion deficit, taxes are a drop in the bucket when it comes to reducing taxes or reducing debts without changes to rights like Social Security or Medicare.

Trump avoids Washington’s governmental recklessness by demonizing trade partners, putting the country at risk of having trade war that had cost its supporters, including India, Vietnam, the EU, and Canada, trillions in exports and destroy global markets.

Traditional errors only highlight the absurdity. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which raised tariffs to less than 60 % ( as opposed to tobacco at 64.78 % ) and sugar at 77.2 %, exacerbated the Great Depression by halting global trade.

Trump’s tariffs, while less drastic, sound this protectionist urge while disregarding the interdependence of contemporary markets. No tariffs can fix the trade deficit, which is a mirror of private choices that include low savings, great consumption, and deficit spending.

A mistaken expedition

Trump’s tariff plan is a quixotic attempt at financial glorification that often leads to failure. Depreciation threatens the dollar’s supply status and relationship demand, while a strong dollar smothers manufacturing.

Taxes does increase profits, but they also increase prices, causing harm to customers and friends like the EU, Japan, and India, whose trade markets are impacted by disturbance. The trade deficit is a reflection of America’s governmental constipation, no foreign hatred, and cannot be resolved by stricter laws only.

Washington must be reining in order to advance, not engaging in trade war. For green growth, it is essential to address excessive spending, including tax cuts and tax reforms that allow the rich and middle classes to pay fair amounts of taxes.

Debating lobbying’s influence on fiscal policy may reduce deficits more efficiently than tariffs, streamlining entitlements, and lowering house discounts. The US has rekindle trust with trading partners worldwide rather than turn them away with protectionist nonsense.

Without these difficult choices, Trump’s vision of American glory will continue to be a hallucination, leaving the US economy weak, the dollar falling, and the rest of the world skeptical of US leadership.

Bhim Bhurtel is a member of the X network, @BhimBhurtel.

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