China in Africa: Footprint maps mislead while real risks rise – Asia Times

China is losing out on the US and France’s effect in terms of global energy dynamics in Africa. China has grown to be Africa’s largest trading partner by volume.

In reaction, media and policymakers in typically strong states are exceedingly depicting Beijing’s expanding footprints on maps that are red or stamped with Taiwanese flags. For example, a chart that was reproduced by a US legislative committee displayed Beijing’s influence and reach in purple stripes across the globe.

However, these images oversimplify a sophisticated truth. In a recent review, I study this problem. I’ve been studying the relations between sub-Saharan Africa and other nations like China, Japan, and the Arab Gulf states for more than ten years.

In a subsequent article, I looked at how to depict China’s jobs across the globe using newly developed drawings of Africa. I contend that press and politicians turn financial ties into a visual representation of unusual invasion by putting Chinese colors on drawings of Africa and its 54 state.

Financing is the frame of something as a risk, even if it’s not one. This is what is called.

This physical borrowing not only raises concerns about dependency, but also makes some audiences, such as those in the US, Japan, and France, think that China’s presence poses a clear threat to their interests.

Certain challenges, such as those from terrorist organizations or atomic weaponry, are obvious. However, China’s presence in several African states differs depending on the situation: if it poses a risk, who is at risk, and why? Do the threat of Chinese-built roads or railways and the bill American states owe for this infrastructure come from the same sources?

According to my study, the response to these concerns depends on what you do.

Colors on maps, which depict China’s appearance in Africa, you impair African states ‘ ability to make decisions based on their own interests. These nations are reduced to arenas of global energy competition by this physical portrayal. They are not regarded as corporate stars by it.

My research suggests, however, that China’s role might not be completely innocuous.

My review focuses primarily on East Africa, which includes the Horn of Africa. Many of Beijing’s involvement in this country is still largely economic ( as it is in western, central, and southern Africa ). Real security concerns are raised, however, by China’s growing control of crucial infrastructure and electronic networks and its military’s desire to establish footholds close to proper maritime routes.

Policymakers must distinguish between overblown securitization claims and reputable risks. This would assist them in avoiding the perils of conservative plans.

damaging effects

Three conundrums arise when China is presented as a menace to Africa.

Second, it undermines the notion and reality of Egyptian authority and independence. Maps that depict Africa as being run by China suggest that civil society and institutions are merely spectators unwilling to co-ordinate their personal domestic and international goals.

Places like Kenya must actually work with China to balance their relationships with those of other foreign actors like the US and Japan and to bring investments for growth projects.

Securitization has led to the development of the idea that, for instance, American or Chinese policymakers have begun to see Africa from the perspective of their strategic rivalry with China. Washington’s speech on foreign policy, for instance, shows this.

In the expanding US-China conflict, Africa’s states are increasingly seen as partners as well as proper battlegrounds. The danger is that American nations start to be seen as quiet players.

Next, financing increases the public’s perception of China as a threat to global stability.

The repeated use of Chinese flag-adorned maps of ports, railroads, and business areas gives off an oversimplified impression of unchecked growth. The number of other foreign state that exist on the globe are not accurately depicted in these maps.

Major interests in Africa are held by the US, several European nations, Japan, India, Russia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and South Korea. China has the largest, most popular presence outside of Africa, but it has been chosen because of the perceived dangers its existence in Africa might posse to the West.

Third, securitization can cause people to react in a certain way to restrict China’s existence rather than effectively engage with Beijing’s opportunities in Africa. These responses may lead to China’s competitors ‘ poor decisions to force projects that don’t meet the needs of American states.

This partially accounts for Ethiopia’s strained relationships with the east. A tilt toward China and Russia was fueled by sanctions and help cuts over the Tigray conflict.

The safety dangers

Financing raises legitimate concerns, but my exploration also demonstrates real security risks linked to China’s existence in Africa. These don’t been disregarded.

For example, China’s growing influence and implication in Africa’s online ecosystem presents a double-edged sword. Huawei and other Chinese businesses have made a contribution to the digital conversion and telecommunication of Africa.

However, these investments furthermore increase Beijing’s potential influence over data flows, computer management, and data protection. These appoint political persuasion, security, or network exploitation.

Another issue is that China has more power over dual-use equipment. For example, Chinese-operated ships in Djibouti can be used for military and commercial purposes.

They could give Beijing a foothold in crucial sea passageways like the Red Sea. In times of conflict, China may limit exposure to these ships. Or use them to expand the South China Sea‘s maritime footprint, similar to what it does there.

The most significant effects may be felt by China as it searches for additional military installations besides its Djibouti bases, which may affect the independence of American states. This is a purposeful Chinese strategy to increase its projected global energy and safeguard access to crucial resources like oil and gas.

Agreements over military installations could undermine or even challenge the American firm of action. The addition of Chinese boats and soldiers could cause tensions to rise as a result of the growing existence of US, European, Indian, Chinese, and other local naval forces. Additionally, it runs the risk of involving American states in authority conflicts that conflict with their national interests.

China’s appearance in Africa has been securitized through dark maps and flag-stamping, presenting its involvement as a looming threat rather than a complicated political reality. The real problem for African states is, nevertheless, ensuring that China’s growing effect, particularly in those in infrastructure, online networks, and surveillance, does not weaken their independence.

How effectively African governments argue their national passions in shaping these collaborations on their own terms will determine whether Beijing’s reputation becomes an option or a liability.

Interact professor at Khalifa University is Brendon J. Cannon.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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Vietnam is integrating more, not less, with China – Asia Times

This essay first appeared on Pacific Forum, and it is now republished with the writer’s permission.

The Lao Cai-Hanoi-Haiphong railway project, a 390.9-kilometer ( about 243-mile ) high-speed railway connecting northern Vietnam with southwest China, has been approved by the Vietnamese National Assembly.

The project is anticipated to be finished by 2030 and may give Vietnam a novel development momentum with an investment total of US$ 8.4 billion.

The Yunnan-Haiphong railway, which was abandoned during the French colonial era, connects Haiphong ( Vietnam ) and Yunnan ( China ), making up the railway.

The old rail, which spanned various types of surfaces, particularly through the hilly areas of the Vietnam-China border region, was established in 1901 and was regarded as an engineering marvel when it reached its peak in 1910, 855 km long, with the area in Vietnam being 390 kilometres long.

The railroad promoted industry and connectivity between southwest China and French Indochina in addition to boosting trade and exports of goods of European source.

However, China suspended this narrow-gauge railway in 2000 because it has become out-of-date ( 1, 000mm ). The Vietnamese-owned railroad continues to go on in good condition until Lao Cai, a frontier state with China, stops.

The new railway project uses a standard-gauge railway ( 1, 435mm ) and will be moving both for freight and for passengers at speeds of up to 160 km/h.

Dai Hegen, the president of China Railway Construction Corporation, confirmed last year that the initiative will support the discovery of the Belt and Road Initiative, aid Yunnan’s faster access to the sea, and promote socio-economic development in Vietnam’s northern border provinces.

The Belt and Road Initiative, spearheaded by Chinese President Xi Jinping, is at its height with the new rail project. The Lao Cai-Hanoi-Haiphong rail, which has been in operation since December 2021, may strengthen China’s ties to Southeast Asian nations.

China hopes to eventually build a larger rail, the Kunming-Singapore rail, to connect Southeast Asia with the primary route running through Laos, Thailand, and Malaysia to Singapore, as well as through Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar.

In light of the world economy’s slow recovery following the Covid-19 crisis, the task serves as an example of Vietnam’s continued integration into the Chinese economy.

Under the direction of the fresh General Secretary To Lam, Vietnam is currently implementing its most ambitious administrative changes.

Ministers finalized their reform plans, including merger, reallocations, and reductions in useless works, in just a month, according to Dr. Nguyen Khac Giang, a visiting brother from the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

Communist Party of Vietnam head Lam&nbsp, bitterly&nbsp, before admitted that little room was left for development funding because nearly 70 % of the budget is spent on salaries and normal bills.

Due to factors like Vietnam’s, absence of incentives, energy shortages, and extreme government, Vietnam missed out on multi-billion buck investments last year from multinationals like Intel and LG Chem.

The deportation of significant international organizations from Vietnam has a significant impact on Vietnam’s goal of 8 % growth in 2025. The Taiwanese economy is in trouble because it is too dependent on companies.

Samsung contributed 16 % of Vietnam’s complete trade value in 2023, and this percentage has remained this degree despite the challenges of the global economy.

Evidently, eliminating the administrative structure by itself won’t completely solve the issue. Vietnam must therefore consider other development momentum, and strengthening its relationship with China might be a solution.

This strategy has the ability to help Vietnam reach its growth goals, but it may also have negative effects on the Asian economy.

First of all, Vietnam has a higher chance of falling entirely dependent on the Chinese market because it lacks strong foundations in countries like Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan.

In fact, the majority of Taiwanese companies are poor, mostly dependent on running and assembling, not to mention various industries like retail trade and agriculture.

Second, if the China-US trade war persists, especially in the second term, Vietnam may be a” transit point for products exported to third places” like the US. In this situation, Vietnam is most likely to be affected by US business restrictions, which Vietnam itself has &nbsp predicted.

An example of a normal anti-dumping investigation involving Vietnam’s$ 5 billion treasure of metal is the US-led anti-dumping analysis in 2019. There are concerns that Asian businesses will be mishandled in such complicated cases as a result.

After Trump 2.0, the US government tightened international aid and concentrated more on the local market, making the decision to get closer to the Chinese economy can be seen as a life-or-death choice for the Asian economy.

This choice also aligns with Vietnam’s wood politics technique, which is to adjust to various circumstances and work with all parties to benefit from each other.

Social subordination is unavoidable because of economic dependence, though. Some poor nations are victims of China’s “debt capture politics,” including Pakistan, Kenya, Zambia, Laos, and Mongolia.

Given that, Vietnam is well known for its long record of opposition to Chinese effect, with the most recent conflict occurring in 1979. Vietnam and China’s connection is extremely complex and constantly evolving.

However, there is always anti-China mood in the nation, which helps to counteract the country’s propensity toward integration into China.

Vietnam may for the time being improve economic ties with local powerhouses like South Korea and Japan to combat its overreliance on China.

Given the presence and influence of South Korean and Japanese companies in the nation, since Japan and South Korea are the best ODA recipients to Vietnam, they could be instrumental in boosting the Asian market.

Buu Nguyen has a degree from the University of Maine at Presque Isle and is concerned about the shared growth of smaller nations in the Indo-Pacific area as well as international relations in East and Southeast Asia. Contact information for the author can be sent to [email protected].

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Registration closing soon for ‘Home for Thais’

Owners are due for a surprise pick next month.

According to Deputy Transport Minister Surapong Piyachote, the government will close subscription for its” Home for Thais” job in the middle of this month and keep a lucky draw for house owners the following month.

Since its January 17 build, 350, 000 people have signed up for the program.

However, he said that less than half of the applicants, or 140, 000, have passed the initial screening and are eligible to apply for housing loans from the Government Housing Bank ( GHB) under the terms of the project.

” We will shut subscription for Phase 1 of the venture this month,” he said.

The ministry will need to conduct a lottery draw, which will be conducted by the Government Lottery Office ( GLO ) as the number of applicants exceeds the number of housing units available. He continued,” The bring will take place in April.”

SRT Asset Co Ltd, a business arm of the Ministry’s State Railway of Thailand ( SRT), will now employ a consultant to carry out an Environmental Impact Assessment ( EIA ) and prepare bid documents for hiring contractors for Phase 1 construction spread across four SRT locations.

The job websites are Chiang Mai, Chiang Mai, and Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, and Bang Sue KM 11 and Thon Buri in Bangkok.

Condos ranging in height from 20 to 42 floors will be featured in the” Home for Thais” project, with the exception of Chiang Mai, where two-storey homes will be constructed.

Phases one and two will increase 7, 100 models, with a planned and planned full of 100, 000 units, while stage one may have 5, 700 models.

He stated that labor is anticipated to start this year and be finished the following month. In the future, the government intends to expand the project to other regions, including Nakhon Ratchasima, Khon Kaen, Chon Buri, and Kanchanaburi.

The SRT may get instant property rental taxes from each condo user, making the job” Home for Thais” more advantageous.

We think this project will provide an economic boost to help the SRT distinct its billion-baht debt more quickly, said Mr. Surapong.

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China’s 5% target ambitious but likely out of reach – Asia Times

Beijing’s decision to set a 5 % GDP growth goal for 2025 is strong, but achieving it will be a huge problem. &nbsp,

The levers of China’s economy, including consumer spending, private funding, and exports, are not moving in sync despite promises of signal, and the impact of structural issues may cause growth to fall short of expectations.

A record-high deficit target of 4 % indicates that the government is prepared to invest more money into the system, but that alone won’t be enough to rekindle speed. &nbsp,

The real estate market is still teetering on a long descent, regional federal loan is rising, and buyer confidence is still recovering from years of doubt. The private sector is hesitant to spend or grow despite politicians ‘ pledges to lower interest rates and increase profitability. &nbsp,

Beijing may find itself relying on state-led investment, an old rulebook with confirmed declining returns, if domestic demand recovers.

The muffled response from the Chinese stock market underscores the lack of faith in the results-oriented actions. The CSI 300 index hardly moved since the announcement, indicating that owners have already invested in Beijing’s passions but are still unsure whether they are feasible. &nbsp,

Bond yields dropped in response to anticipation for more monetary easing, but historically, easy money has failed to lead development. A rise in customer confidence and private-sector dynamism, neither of which can be engineered immediately, are what China certainly needs.

Exports, when a trusted force for economic growth, are in jeopardized by rising geopolitical tensions and declining global demand. Important industries are under stress as a result of the growing trade conflict with the US, and the general decline in global consumption results in fewer opportunities for foreign growth. &nbsp,

Trump’s most recent 10 % cover tariff on Chinese exports, which was announced this year, looms ominously over the nation’s manufacturing industry, adding to the problem.

The prospect of additional tariffs ( Trump threatened 60 % blanket tariffs on the campaign trail ) would only add to supply chain disruptions and further dampen foreign demand because Chinese exports are already struggling to maintain competitiveness. &nbsp,

Yet the announcements of two 10 % tariffs are likely to hurt producers and make it even more difficult for China to rely on trade to counteract domestic economic weakness.

The labor demographics in China also pose a growing concern. A declining work pressure and an aging population added pressure to productivity and prospects for long-term growth.

Some of these problems could be resolved with technological advancement and automation, but they require time- and sophisticated structural changes to make China’s economy more self-sufficient. &nbsp,

The administration’s efforts to boost the market through manufacturing incentives and infrastructure projects may give the economy a boost in the short run, but they do little to tackle the deeper issue of weak customer demand.

Foreign investment, which was historically a key factor in China’s economic development, is beginning to decline. &nbsp,

International businesses are more anxious to expand their presence in China because of geopolitical tensions, an unexpected regulatory environment, and problems over intellectual property protection.

Without greater investor trust, the nation runs the risk of becoming more isolated, which would impede its ability to grow economically and technologically.

China’s bill issue is also getting worse. Local governments, which are already deeply obliged, have limited fiscal resources to support economic growth, and worries about hidden obligations are rising.

However, the Chinese economy’s long-standing real estate industry is still in turmoil, with some developers struggling to stay afloat. The effects of efforts to stabilize the home market have so far been scant, and consumer sentiment is still fragile. &nbsp,

If the departmental crisis gets worse, it may cause even more household wealth and spending to decline.

Having said that, a 5 % economic development goal is not doable, but it necessitates a level of economic power that is already beyond our ability. &nbsp,

Beijing may be willing to follow its plan, but without a fundamental change, growth runs the risk of being fueled by unsustainable government spending more than true economic development. &nbsp,

The second-largest economy in the world is under increasing stress, and achieving its lofty goal will require more than just policy guarantees; it will also call for a fundamental transformation that Beijing, to be honest, has yet to offer.

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China ramps up stimulus to guard economy from changes ‘unseen in a century’, boosting stock markets

Beijing: On Wednesday ( Mar 5 ), China unlocked more fiscal stimulus, promising greater efforts to cushion the effects of an escalating trade war with the United States and help Beijing’s economy grow by another 5 % or so this year.

Premier Li Qiang warned that” modifications unnoticed in a decade are unfolding across the world at a faster pace in a statement at the beginning of the annual conference of China’s parliament.”

China may be more affected by an extremely complex and harsh outside environment, Li said.

The US President Donald Trump’s administration’s trade war is threatening to destroy China’s financial diamond, its sprawling business complex, at a time when persistently&nbsp, sluggish&nbsp, family desire and the&nbsp, unravelling&nbsp, of the debt-laden house industry are leaving the business increasingly&nbsp, vulnerable.

Trump has likewise imposed tariffs on a long list of nations, thereby eradicating a decades-old international trade order that Beijing has based its economic model on.

China’s government is under increasing pressure to provide consumer-focused signal to ward off negative pressures and lessen China’s dependence on exports and purchase for growth.

According to Guotai Junan analysts, the name” use” was mentioned 31 days in Li’s report, away from 21 days last year, while “technology” received 28 mentions, somewhat up from 26 in 2024.

” For the first time, boosting usage has been elevated to the major concern among the main responsibilities of 2025,” according to Tilly Zhang, a systems analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics.

According to Zhang, “it’s not a change from the previous commercial policy; it’s moving toward a more healthy” macroeconomic framework.”

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This is about the US national debt but please read it anyway – Asia Times

One of those topics that Wall Street Journal writers in my day called DBIs is the national debt. It is boring but significant. Headstands were used to illustrate how complex and intangible these subjects are. This is the history of the 27th largest material manufacturer in the western world, according to one Journal article. Oh, study it nonetheless.

I’ve always resisted DBIs. A very obscure economic topic called total factor productivity was the subject of a lengthy WSJ story I once wrote. I wrote a five-part set on the World Trade Organization in my earlier years at DTN. Speak about a topic that is eye-opening.

Commentators today have no choice but to risk glazed-over eyes and address the national debt because it has grown to be so significant that it is becoming so significant.

Even the debt seems uninteresting because we’ve been conned into believing that the future will force the government to impose huge tax increases or print money to stoke runaway inflation, or both. Basically, it’s currently inflicting pain, and paying it back, or halting its growth, will result in problems of a different kind.

The national debt is higher now than it was at the end of World War II, as a percent of GDP. Americans are dealing with this issue. US Department of Treasury Graph

Certainly, the more the debt grows, as it will under Trump and as it did under Harris, the more the pain will become.

Develop it has undoubtedly. The public’s national debt has increased by 12 % to$ 28.9 trillion since 2015, according to the government. It has increased in every political leadership since this decade.

The total federal loan, which includes authorities debt held by various government agencies, is equivalent to 123 % of the gross domestic product, or$ 36.2 trillion. To put that into perspective, we haven’t been in a main battle for the past five years because the amount at the end of World War II was just 106 %.

Consider four possible ways the government may address the debt problem in order to know why the debt will keep rising and the suffering it will produce.

1 ) Allow it to grow. In the near future, this is the least painful and most likely strategy. Totaling$ 4.5 trillion over ten years, the Trump presidency and the Republican House of Representatives plan to cut taxes. No one believes that the state may reduce spending even slightly. Estimates of the debt’s addition by 2035 range from$ 4 trillion to$ 10 trillion.

Pain? Interest rates are already being pressured by the loan. Investors in long-term bonds anticipate higher risk, including having their money repaid in undervalued dollars. Their worries increase costs.

Daily interest rates are also affected by long-term relationship rates. The offer on the 10-year Treasury note is significantly higher compared to the standard rate that the Fed has cut by a full percentage point since September. In consequence, the interest charge on the typical 30-year loan is also affected. Land interest rates have hardly dropped in many areas and continue to be higher.

2 ) Reduce spending. Although the government does some of that, it falls short of maintaining a healthy finances. Only 16 % of the resources, or what is considered voluntary non-defense spending, is being attacked by Elon Musk.

The state is a big contributor because of its obligations to folks, starting with Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, as well as meals stamps and farm applications.

Medicaid and meal mark cuts are being looked at by the House. If they’re made, they’ll be a source of intense problems for many Americans.

Farmers and farmers are not the only ones. Food aid worth$ 4 billion a year was one of the foreign aid initiatives the administration has targeted.

Some producers who contracted with the authorities to improve their farming methods may not receive compensation for the money they’ve spent. Additionally, budget cuts that use food stamps may make it harder to get a new land costs.

3 ) Increase income. Because the GOP has no taste for real tax increases, this won’t happen. As previously mentioned, revenue cuts totaling$ 4.5 trillion are on the board. Although proponents claim that tax breaks promote economic growth, few have so far produced enough progress to “pay for themselves.” Nevertheless, American taxpayers would be in immediate pain if tax increases were to occur.

4 ) Hope for a rise in the performance of the economy. This may result in higher tax revenues and stronger financial growth. As more businesses adopt AI, efficiency may increase, as it did in the late 1990s during the internet boom. This is not an absurd hope.

However, the efficiency gains from the internet boom quickly vanished, just like earlier booms. If the upcoming AI growth is stronger and more persistent, it may in fact increase taxes revenue for a while. But enough to begin reducing the national loan? That puts a lot of pounds on a hope, which is not a plan.

No one is pushing for the incredibly painful changes that would be most important in programs like Social Security and Medicare, despite the fact that today’s debt-inflicted problems is broadly spread. Washington does allow the debt to grow. Long-term attention rates will continue to be subject to higher pressure.

Urban Lehner, a former long-time Asia journalist and director for the Wall Street Journal, is writer professor of DTN/The Progressive Farmer.

This post, which was originally published on March 4th, by the latter news business and is now being republished by Asia Times with authority, is titled” Copyright 2025 DTN/The Progressive Farmer.” All trademarks are reserved. Follow @urbanize, on @urbanize, and on @urbanize.

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Developing Asia in a Trump-tariff, China-dumping squeeze – Asia Times

Asia’s officials are at a loss for what turmoil the Trump administration might unleash following due to a barrage of tariffs, hatred for international institutions, and disdain for democratic leaders.

Last week was a striking case in point. On a revenge tour, the US president turned his back on the NATO ally, caused a common dispute with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and doubled his tariffs on China to 20 %. Just days after the 25 % tax on all imports of cars was revealed.

Tariffs on international carmakers may include Japan and South Korea, previously Washington’s two best allies in Asia. With Trump’s burn-it-all-down plan, Asia’s developing markets are in a more precarious position.

Interest rates were cut by central bankers in Indonesia, South Korea, and Thailand over the past several months. But chances are the tax storm coming from Washington has only just begun. And it could swiftly rise in ways that Asian business leaders and politicians have not even begun to exploit.

Trump is currently active pursuing the European Union. Last year, he chided the EU, complaining it “was formed to lock the United States”. He claimed that as a result, US taxes” may be applied to cars and all other products.”

Trump cited the explanation as” they’ve actually taken advantage of us in a different way.” They don’t take our automobiles. They use all kinds of arguments as to why they don’t acknowledge effectively our plantation products.

Trump’s trade war is primarily about China, a goal that will undoubtedly returning to his attention first and frequently. That includes investigating Foreign artificial intelligence businesses and supersizing president Joe Biden’s limits on exporting high-end electronics and chip-making products to the island. Trump also strongly enticing US allies to impose harsh restrictions on Chinese bits.

All of this results in Asia becoming a miniature bubble. ” To say that President Trump has hit the ground running in his next word would be an understatement”, says economist&nbsp, Priyanka&nbsp, Kishore, founder of advisory Asia Decoded.

He has moved quickly on his campaign promises thanks to an expert and dedicated team in place. Just in the first 30 days, a record number of professional commands were signed, according to Kishore.

Consequently, Asia is preparing for the worst. Administrations are putting the brakes on Trumpian tumult by lowering costs and closing the doors.

That includes imposing macro-prudential restrictions, increasing foreign trade supply reserves, and imposing crisis fiscal stimulus to halt economic growth.

Businesses everywhere are finding themselves in harm’s manner. According to Jason Draho, mind of resource allocation for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, companies are “likely dangerous” until Trump’s plans become more growth-focused.

In a note, Goldman Sachs analysts warn that “tariff increases may also boost production costs for some local producers, and may probably quick international retaliation against some US exports, both of which may negatively impact local production.”

Part of the problem is the uncertainty of Trump’s challenges. He threatens to impose large taxes on various nations and businesses the next day, but he backs it.

Trump’s win in the presidential election next November has only strengthened the doubt about the direction of US monetary policy, according to analysts at Capital Economics in a note.

Trump is doing it, they add,” with threats of large punitive&nbsp, tariffs&nbsp, and the potential overturning of traditional political alliances plunging the rest of the world into a condition of heightened uncertainty also. Uncertainty could have an impact on global investment and consumer spending for an extended period, especially if Trump frequently delays his tax dates.

Additionally, it appears as though it’s just a matter of time before Trump’s deeds irreparably harm the dollar and send shockwaves of financial shockwaves that increase risks Asia hasn’t already taken into account. For all the state’s attempt to wean itself off the US dollar, Asia remains much too dollar-centric for convenience.

That is a significant risk because of Trump’s policies ‘ significant risk to the reserve currency. Trump, for instance, has threatened to end the autonomy that gives the Federal Reserve, the country’s guardian of the dollar, such global authority and influence.

Trump has also mused at times about defaulting on US government debt as a means to settle scores with rivals. Or perhaps as a plot to get the US to renounce some of its debts.

While global credit rating organizations may disagree with plans for significant tax cuts. Already, the US debt is zooming toward US$ 37 trillion. And at a time when Trump and his de facto presidential rival Elon Musk are trying to demolish the IRS and other important financial institutions.

Alarm bells have rang out as a result of news that Musk and his associates were also given access to highly sensitive US Treasury Department data.

In a New York Times op-ed last month, Robert Rubin, Lawrence Summers, Timothy Geithner, Jacob Lew and Janet Yellen warned that” no Treasury secretary in his or her first weeks in office should be put in the position where it is necessary to reassure the nation and the world of the integrity of our payments system or our commitment to make good on our financial obligations”.

Any hint of the selective suspension of congressionally authorized payments will be a breach of trust, they claimed, and it will ultimately turn out to be a default. And once lost, our credibility will be challenging to regain.

That’s not to say Asian governments aren’t overdoing efforts to protect their economies from Trump’s trade wars. or that China’s attempt to stop deflation isn’t working for many countries, especially in Southeast Asia.

Trump’s 2017-2021 presidency and the current one’s are a direct result of the fact that China switched from exporting to the West to Global South countries. And at bargain-basement prices as the overcapacity pushing Chinese consumer prices lower spills over into developing Asia.

For instance, since 2021, the number of Chinese exports to the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) members has increased by roughly 25 %. And at the worst possible time, prices are severely undermining Southeast Asia’s crucial export sectors.

At the same time, China’s trade surplus with ASEAN had doubled since Trump 1.0’s tariffs. It serves as a reminder that Asia’s hopes that China would be the growth engine the US was before the Trump era are untrue.

Since 1997, China’s net exports account for roughly one-third of the global GDP ( GDP ). This bookmark is worth considering as developing Asia worries Trump’s tariffs, coupled with Chinese deflation, might restore a 1997-like vibe to Asian markets.

Economica like Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand are now facing the specter of China-driven de-industrialization in ways that few people had anticipated. The Trump 2.0 tariff barrage is set to follow as a result of the avalanche of Chinese goods sweeping smaller economies at an epic scale.

Yet the answer isn’t imposing trade curbs on China’s dumping, which would merely treat the symptoms of developing Asia’s challenges, not the problems themselves.

These misguided actions toward China include enacting anti-dumping laws, targeting e-commerce platforms like Temu, imposing new import customs restrictions, and imposing levies on everything from clothing to irony.

Non-tariff barriers are most prevalent in China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand across Asia. South Korea also raises eyebrows in Washington for regulations and testing standards that could be seen as barriers to entry.

Sonal Varma, an analyst at Nomura Holdings, says that expanding the scope of the reciprocal tax reflects both the complexity and transparency of the process.

Maybe only as a temporary defense. But it’s far more important that developing Asia accelerate efforts to move upmarket into higher-value-added industries, particularly in services, to wean economies off of cheap exports.

That would significantly increase the share of tech “uniform” startups in economies, enabling them to reform rigid economic systems and create new good-paying jobs and wealth.

Developed Asia has plenty of problems of its own. Take Japan, which is currently at risk of collateral damage from Trump’s trade war and slowing China’s economy.

According to Stefan Angrick, head Japan economist at Moody’s Analytics,” A disappointing run of data this year suggests 2025 will be difficult for Japan’s economy.”

” Manufacturing and exports have struggled against a deteriorating trade outlook, production snags, weak external demand, and increased external competition”.

Sticky inflation, according to Angrick, “is pushing real wage growth into the distance, delaying a meaningful recovery in consumption.” While uncertainty over monetary and fiscal policy is an additional drag on things,

” With external and domestic demand unlikely to offer much support in the near term, the outlook for 2025 is deteriorating fast”, Angrick notes.

The impact might be greater for Asia’s remaining regions. Many economists are concerned that the trade war’s overall effects will be much greater than the Trump 2.0 White House’s predictions.

” Macroeconomics is the kryptonite of Trump’s reciprocal tariff plan”, says Yale University’s Stephen Roach. The proposal “displays disregard for facts, disregard for history, and places blame on others for problems that America’s own creation” ( p.

Trump may be trying his luck, according to Chang Shu, an economist for Bloomberg Economics. The restraint Chinese leader Xi Jinping has exercised so far on retaliation steps, she says,” could shift to a more strident retaliatory stance — and a much more damaging trade war”.

China has undoubtedly made it abundantly clear that Trump’s trade restrictions won’t go unchallenged. China may use potentially retaliatory measures, such as reducing US agricultural and food purchases.

Indeed, Xi may use the annual&nbsp, National People’s Congress, taking place in Beijing this week, to hit back harder at Team Trump and in doing so put the rest of Asia more in harm’s way.

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Ukraine debacle signals the death of Atlanticism – Asia Times

Europe was shocked last week by the common spat between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Europe finds itself trapped in a non-man’s area as a result of Trump’s call for an end to the Ukrainian conflict and US policy change. It stifled China’s economy, cut ties with Russia, and failed to anticipate Trump’s traditional geopolitical change.

After EU officials publicly acknowledged that the Minsk discussions were used to pass the time to Ukraine’s defense, making matters worse, Europe disqualified itself as a trustworthy opponent. Europe managed to seize the world’s attention in a short period of time.

ignoring the past

The US has no lasting friends, according to Henry Kissinger, and merely interests. A prime example of this is the Ukrainen War.

About 30 years ago, the majority of European&nbsp countries, which were influenced by a liberal flood in the US, elected a number of Atlanticist-minded social leaders who supported US liberal laws.

Bush, Clinton, and Obama were US presidents who supported NATO enlargement. The spread of democracy and freedom, which was used as the justification, obscured the geopolitical and economic justifications that can be traced back to the colonial era.

European geographer Halford Mackinder’s The Heartland Theory argued that a divided European continent was the foundation of Western hegemony in the early 20th century.

Mackinder compared the conflict between emerging maritime powers ( mostly Western Europeans ) and land-based powers ( Russia, China, India ) as a whole. The West’s sea hegemony was challenged by the development of railway.

From the Heartland Theory by Halford Mackinder. Military shipping changed as a result of Roadworks.

British political strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski identified Ukraine as the key player in the Asian continent conflict in the 1980s.

Since the 1990s, NATO’s growth was spearheaded by Brzezinski’s supporters and supported by subsequent US services.

The reason was that the sea powers of the West could maintain global hegemony by keeping the Asian continent divided. The Atlanticists were likewise concerned by China’s Belt &amp, Road Initiative ( BRI), which spans the European continent.

China’s Belt & Road Initiative may eventually incorporate the continent of Asia.

The Ukraine conflict, in the eyes of the Atlantic, succeeded in removing Europe from the European continent. The plan included lowering the size of the Nord Stream network, which connects Russia and Europe.

The Atlanticists were unable to have anticipated that Trump would fundamentally alter the corporate chess board.

The proverb” Following the money” is still applicable. The US is dealing with a growing and untenable national bill, a persistent budget deficit, and ever-increasing trade deficits. The dollar’s status as the world’s supply dollar is contingent on its continued support of these quad deficits.

As the” toll booth” of the global currency system, the US makes trillions of dollars. To address its budgetary shortfalls, the US government has currently taken out a 36 trillion US loan. The defence budget is receiving more interest payments than the federal loan, and they are rising. The US is heading for default or inflation on the latest path.

Trump wants to make sure the buck remains the world’s reserve currency and restore the country’s fiscal health. It explains both why he threatens sanctions against nations that try to de-dollarize and why his merciless cost-cutting is so effective.

Strong Negation

Russia was not persuaded by the West that NATO’s expansion of its borders was unaffected by its threat. They viewed NATO enlargement as an practice of democracy and freedom, indifferent about the potential Russian response. Pragmatism was defeated by philosophy.

However, the descent may become painful. Western media earlier in the conflict portrayed Russia as weak and corrupt, with a failing business and a corrupt government. The West relied on three arches that fell one after another, one who was exceedingly confident or generally naive:

– Sanctions to slam or decline the Russian business and stoke a revolt against Putin failed

– Russia’s attempt to isolate itself from China and India failed in the face of world isolation.

– Russians were defeated strategicically by using more sophisticated NATO arms.

The West did not bother to come up with a backup plan because it was convinced that Russia may become brought to its knees. The West changed the text when it became apparent that Russia was not to be defeated. Russia was no longer a poor position with an impotent defense; it was a serious risk to Europe.

Russia’s economy is comparable to that of Spain, it accounts for less than one-third of Europe’s population, and it accounts for a quarter of the country’s$ 84 billion defense budget ( compared to$ 326 billion in Europe ). However, Europeans are then advised that if they don’t support Ukraine, they might have to confront the Russians at their own edges.

The Europeans are doubling down on their corporate foolishness despite being completely unaware that the end goal has arrived and incapable of making peace ideas. They are discussing creating a security industry that doesn’t rely on the US, and discussing a social Western defense fund.

Experts predict that Europe will need ten times to become fully militarized, and more and more countries in Europe are reporting frustration with Ukraine’s policies. Under 30 % of EU officials ‘ approval ratings are reported.

Europe’s failure is inherent and cannot be ignored. A Chinese political analyst recently remarked on the issue:” Europe consists of smaller countries and countries that don’t know they are small ( in the framework of politics )”. &nbsp,

If the US, Russia, and China talk about a post architecture, such as Yalta II, Europe might find itself clung to the bleachers. Europe lacks the strategic leverage that the” Big Three” can offer when the chips are down.

Ancient descent

The EU elite’s greatest concern is to control public opinion as they descend from their intellectual battles.

The American media has been the propaganda arm of the Atlanticists, some of whom are sponsored by USAID, since 2014, when Russia regained power of Crimea. They constantly demonized Putin and Russia. People who spoke out in support of Zelensky or Ukraine was portrayed as a Russian property.

The relentless flow of anti-Russian misinformation was very successful. In a recent poll conducted in Britain, over 80 % of respondents were in favor of boots on the ground in Ukraine. Never head that Wembley Stadium would accommodate the entire American troops.

The intellectual environment has been altered by the Atlanticist disease that has invaded Europe over the past three decades. The legendary appropriate calls for harmony now, just like the AfD in Germany, while the mighty left, including the” Greens,” cheers on the continuation of the conflict. This traditional shift in roles is hardly ever discussed in Europe.

The anti-Vietnam War demonstrations in the early 1970s and the pupil uprisings in 1968 give rise to Europe’s Green Parties. The pacifist and environmentalist movement came to form the Dutch Green Party, but the” Green” key of Amsterdam displayed a burned-out Russian tank as a war medal in the city center of Amsterdam.

Europe would be wise to consider the ideological shift that caused the Ukraine horror when peace comes back.

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Commentary: Will Trump tariffs force China to fix its economy quickly?

China’s fiscal and monetary policies will likely be decently stepped up, but not necessarily in the same way that they did during the global financial crisis.

The$ 4 trillion yuan stimulus package at the time was 4 trillion yuan, or 11 % of GDP in 2008.  Despite having a higher state loan, it was a significant boost to China’s home demand, primarily due to the expansion of funds and investment in infrastructure. China imported more goods and commodities, easing the need shock’s way across the world.

For two reasons, things are different this day.

Second, the Chinese government has set the tone for a slow-moving economic growth rate and is more involved with debt than before.

China now emphasizes “high-quality development” while setting a more confusing growth goal of “around 5 %” compared to the previous time. China’s Communist Party’s main newspapers, the People’s Daily, stated in an article from December 2024 that it is not necessary to adhere to a particular growth rate. There is less reliance on credit expansion and local authorities debt restructuring, but there is also a stronger emphasis on challenges.

Support for a piecemeal approach may be limited due to Mr. Trump’s plan focus on long-term “high-quality development,” which is in line with his demands. It’s unlikely that China’s economy will suddenly rise, especially given the challenges brought on by its deteriorating people and depressed real estate markets.

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Doctors warn parents of rise in scarlet fever

Condition most commonly found in children aged 5 to 15 treatable with medication

Doctors and nurses conduct scarlet fever screening checks for students at Wat Bang Chalongnok School in Samut Prakan on Friday. (Photo: Wat Bang Chalongnok School Facebook page)
Doctors and nurses conduct scarlet fever screening checks for students at Wat Bang Chalongnok School in Samut Prakan on Friday. (Photo: Wat Bang Chalongnok School Facebook page)

Thai health authorities have advised parents to remain vigilant but to not panic following a rise in scarlet fever cases among children.

Scarlet fever — an infection caused by Group A Streptococcus — is most commonly found in children aged 5 to 15, said Dr Akkharathan Jitnuyanont, director of the Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health.

Symptoms include high fever, sore throat, inflamed tonsils, a rash on the body and limbs, and a “strawberry-like” appearance of the tongue, he said.

Dr Akkharathan said scarlet fever must be treated with medication, and completing the full course of treatment is essential to prevent serious health complications.

Patients typically recover within seven to 10 days after starting treatment. However, parents are advised to monitor symptoms for two to three weeks, as complications such as a rapid heartbeat or changes in urination require medical attention.

Dr Thanin Vejjaphinant, deputy director-general of the Department of Medical Services, suggested the rise in cases may be linked to “immunity debt” following the Covid-19 pandemic.

He added that while there are multiple strains of Group A Streptococcus, only some cause scarlet fever, and these are being closely monitored to control its spread.

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