Turkey eyes Balkan influence amid Serbia-Kosovo tensions

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With Recep Tayyip Erdogan having secured another five years in power, the Turkish president is seeking to increase Turkey’s influence in the Balkans – a region that was part of the Ottoman Empire for centuries.

Spiking tensions in northern Kosovo present such an opportunity. Although southeastern Europe remains firmly in the United States’ geopolitical orbit, Ankara likely aims to start playing the role of mediator in disputes between Belgrade and Pristina. 

The situation in Kosovo near the Serbian border, where ethnic Serbs make up the majority of the population, escalated on May 26 when the Albanian-dominated Kosovo police special forces (ROSU) seized four municipal buildings in the area, aiming to help newly elected ethnic-Albanian mayors take office.

The Serb population overwhelmingly boycotted elections on April 23, so while the votes were free and fair, the results did not reflect the wishes of the majority in the region.

ROSU’s actions infuriated the United States and – despite being Kosovo’s major backer – Washington expelled Pristina from American-led military exercises in Europe. Instead, US troops held joint military drills with the Serbian army near the town of Bujanovac, not far from Kosovo. 

Quite aware that he cannot count on full Western support, Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti may start looking for alternative partners, hoping to improve Pristina’s positions in the international arena. Could Turkey be one of them?

Ankara has deployed around 500 Turkish commandos to northern Kosovo in response to a NATO request for troops to help quell the unrest. They have already started patrolling the Serb-dominated municipalities in the north. More important, Turkey is expected soon to take over the command of the US-dominated NATO mission in Kosovo. 

But even though Ankara is traditionally seen as an ally of Balkan Muslims, including Albanians, that does not necessarily mean Erdogan will side with Kurti against the ethnic-Serb majority in northern Kosovo. However, the Kosovar prime minister’s recent meeting with the Turkish ambassador to Pristina undoubtedly represents his attempt to gain Ankara’s support amid his confrontation with the US.

Turkey expands influence abroad

It is no secret that Turkey aims to become one of the most influential foreign actors in the Balkans. It already plays an important “peacemaking” role in various conflicts, from Syria, through Libya, to Ukraine, where Ankara’s mediation led to the grain deal signed between Moscow and Kiev.

Since the European Union-facilitated dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina did not lead to an easing of tensions in northern Kosovo, Erdogan sees a window of opportunity for Ankara to mediate the conflict.   

Even though Turkey unreservedly supports Kosovo’s 2008 unilaterally declared independence from Serbia, Erdogan seems to be opting for a constructive, balanced approach, which also implies respect for Serbian interests in the region.

Belgrade – as well as EU members Spain, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Cyprus – sees Kosovo as an integral part of Serbia, which is why Turkey is attempting to balance its strong economic ties with the southeastern European nation, with its historic and cultural ties with Kosovo Albanians.

In 2013, when Erdogan was prime minister, his statement that “Kosovo is Turkey, and Turkey is Kosovo” drew strong criticism in Belgrade. Ten years later, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic sees Erdogan as an actor who can “help preserve stability in northern Kosovo,” and also as a “true friend” of Serbia.

Indeed, despite different views on the status of Kosovo, relations between Belgrade and Ankara have significantly improved over the past decade. Serbian citizens can travel to Turkey without passports, while Ankara continues strengthening its economic presence in the Balkan nation.

Around 3,300 Turkish companies are operating in Serbia, 21 of which are factories. Further, the total trade exchange between Serbia and Turkey reached almost €2.5 billion (US$2.7 billion) in 2022, while the trade volume between Turkey and Kosovo was much lower, accounting for $696 million. 

Arms sales

Belgrade and Ankara – despite Turkey being a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and Serbia remaining militarily neutral – are also expected to increase military cooperation, especially after Erdogan reportedly promised to provide the landlocked Balkan nation with Bayraktar drones.

However, the Kosovo Security Force has already received five Turkish-made drones, which means that Turkey likely aims to benefit by selling weapons to both sides.

An increased Turkish military presence in Kosovo will undoubtedly help Ankara strengthen its positions in the region, especially now that the West is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine. At the same time, it will help Erdogan portray himself as an ascendant, impartial partner for both Belgrade and Pristina.

But given that the United States, with its Kosovo-based Camp Bondsteel – the largest and most expensive foreign military base built by the US in Europe since the Vietnam War – remains the major foreign power operating in the Balkans, Turkey is unlikely to be in a position to pursue a completely independent foreign policy in the region.

Instead, Ankara will almost certainly have to coordinate most of its moves carefully with Washington. 

This article was provided by Syndication Bureau, which holds copyright.

Follow Nikola Mikovic on Twitter @nikola_mikovic.

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China, US resume talks but ‘de-risking’ lingers

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China and the United States have agreed to increase both official and unofficial dialogues after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken ended a two-day visit to China on Monday.

Blinken, whose Beijing trip was postponed due to the Chinese spy balloon incident in early January, finally met with Chinese President Xi Jinping after having a five-hour meeting with Foreign Minister Qin Gang on Sunday and another meeting with top diplomat Wang Yi on Monday. 

Both the Chinese and US sides described the Qin-Blinken talks as candid, in-depth and constructive.

China said the two countries will push forward top-level official dialogues, including Qin’s and Wang’s coming visits to the US, and also work-level communications. They said both nations will increase the number of direct flights between them and encourage humanities, educational and academic exchanges between their people.

During their meeting, Wang told Blinken that the US must stop hyping “the China threat theory,” cancel unilateral sanctions against China, give up suppressing China’s technological development and stop interfering in China’s internal affairs.

An article pulished by the state-owned Defense Times said all the four demands made by Wang were rejected by Blinken. 

Chinese academics and commentators said that, as it’s unlikely that the US will ease its stance on technology ban and Taiwan matters within the short run, the only way to reboot the Sino-US relations is through unofficial exchanges. 

At the end of his trip, Blinken told the media that both sides agreed to set up a working group to address the issue related to China’s export of fentanyl precursor chemicals to the US. He also said he believes China can play a role to alleviate the risk of global food shortage by helping push forward a long-term Black Sea grain agreement. 

He added that he had told his Chinese counterparts that what the US means by “de-risking” is hugely different from “de-coupling.” 

He said the US has no intention to decouple from China as many American firms still want to do business with the country but the US government will continue to prevent its technologies from being used against the American people – for example, in making hypersonic weapons or in human rights abuses.

He said both sides discussed the Ukraine war. He said Washington did not see any evidence that China has sent lethal weapons to Russia but he has urged Beijing officials to stay vigilant that some Chinese private companies are selling their products to Russia for military use.

He reiterated that the US does not support Taiwan independence but will make sure that the island can protect itself. He said more US officials will visit China in the coming weeks.

Five ‘noes’

In November 2021, US President Joe Biden told Xi that the US will not seek a new Cold War with Beijing nor change the Chinese political system nor target China with revitalized US alliances nor support Taiwan independence nor seek conflict with the Chinese. 

Beijing later called these “five noes.” It said Biden reiterated that the US would follow the “five noes” principle during his face-to-face meeting with Xi in Bali last November.

However, Beijing expressed serious discontent as Washington kept sanctioning Chinese companies, selling arms to Taiwan and persuading its allies to impose export bans against China. The Sino-US tensions grew further after a Chinese spy balloon was seen in American airspace in late January and US House Speaker and Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen met in California in April.

“The Chinese side has made our position clear, and the two sides have agreed to follow through the common understandings President Biden and I had reached in Bali,” Xi said in his opening speech when meeting with Blinken on Monday. “The two sides have also made progress and reached agreements on some specific issues. This is very good.” 

“State-to-state interactions should always be based on mutual respect and sincerity. I hope that through this visit, you will make more positive contributions to stabilising China-US relations,” Xi said.  

He said major-country competition does not represent the trend of the times, still less can it solve America’s own problems or the challenges facing the world. He said China respects US interests and does not seek to challenge or displace the US but at the same time hopes that the US respects China and not to hurt China’s legitimate rights and interests. 

He said China always hopes to see a sound and steady China-US relationship and believes that the two major countries can overcome various difficulties and find the right way to get along based on mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation. He also called on the US side to adopt a rational and pragmatic attitude and work with China in the same direction.

Prior to this, China’s Foreign Ministry has said that Biden over-reacted in the Chinese balloon incident as he ordered the shootdown of the balloon. Just before Blinken’s China trip, Biden said the incident “was more embarrassing than it was intentional.” 

“China has some legitimate difficulties unrelated to the US, and I think one of the things that balloon caused was not so much that it got shot down, but I don’t think the leadership knew where it was, knew what it was in it, and what was going on,” he said Saturday.

“I’m hoping over the next several months, I’ll be meeting with Xi again and talking about legitimate differences we have but also how there are areas we can get along,” he said.

Taiwan matters

During their meeting in Beijing on Sunday, Qin told Blinken that the Taiwan question is the core of China’s core interests, the most consequential issue and the most pronounced risk in the China-US relationship. He said the US should abide by the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués, and truly deliver on its commitment of not supporting Taiwan independence. 

According to a statement published by Beijing after the meeting, China and the US agreed to keep moving forward consultations on the guiding principles of their relations. Both sides agreed to continue advancing consultations through the joint working group to address specific issues in the relations. 

In fact, Biden and Xi had already discussed these two topics in Bali last November.

Sun Chenghao, an associate researcher at the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University, said in an article at that time that the US and China had maintained a stable relationship for several decades after they announced the Three Joint Communiqués between 1972 and 1982. Sun said the two countries can consider drafting the fourth ones to clearly define long term Sino-US relations.

“These two agreements only mean that the both sides will continue to meet and talk,” a Zhejiang-based columnist writes in an article posted Monday. “China definitely knows how serious the Taiwan matters are, but it’s unclear whether the US really understands them.”

He says the most concrete achievements in the Qin-Blinken meeting is that both sides agreed to encourage more people-to-people and educational exchanges. He says it is easier to boost unofficial exchanges and the number of flights than to resolve political problems. 

“As the US side has repeatedly failed to meet its promises, it is unclear how conflicts between the US and China can still be resolved by official dialogues,” Yuan Zhou, a military and political columnist, writes in an article. “The agreement about encouraging unofficial exchanges can be a way out.”

Yuan says top executives of Tesla, JP Morgan and Microsoft have recently visited China, showing that there is a strong foundation to rebuild Sino-US relations and reduce political conflicts.

Chen Feng, a columnist at Guancha.cn, says US firms such as Boeing, Nvidia, Ford and Tesla cannot afford to leave the huge Chinese markets. 

He predicts that with in view of all their investments, European countries will not join the US to sanction China and then the US will fail to maintain a strong alliance with Australia, Japan and the United Kingdom. He says this is a good way for China to break the United States’ technology blockage. 

Read: Tech giants ‘de-risk’ from China, but selectively

Read: China, US move closer to high-level official talks

Follow Jeff Pao on Twitter at @jeffpao3

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German president urges China, US to strengthen dialogue

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PUSH TO DIVERSIFY Export giant Germany, by virtue of its economic might, has always enjoyed special ties with China. Under former chancellor Angela Merkel, Berlin took a pragmatic approach of talking up economic opportunities while keeping less flattering opinions on rights and freedom behind closed doors. That made China aContinue Reading

Europe wants solar power sovereignty from China

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Europe generates a lot of solar power, most of it using photovoltaic (PV) modules imported from China. Now, in the name of energy sovereignty, the European Union (EU) and its solar industry firms want to reduce that dependence. 

The organizers of the Intersolar Europe 2023 trade exhibition and conference, held in Munich, Germany, from June 14 to 16, put it this way in their introduction to the event:

“PV production is set to return to Europe – with strong political tailwinds. In order to achieve energy sovereignty and make its energy system permanently resilient, Europe must minimize its technological dependencies and supply chain disruptions… Politicians and economists agree: Photovoltaics production must be brought back to Europe.”

That was a follow-up to a statement made last October by European Union Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton when the European Commission formally endorsed the continent’s new Solar Photovoltaic Industry Alliance: 

“To meet Europe’s renewable energy objectives — and avoid replacing a dependency on Russian fossil fuels with new dependencies — we are launching an industrial alliance for solar energy. With the alliance’s support, the EU could reach 30 Gigawatt of annual solar energy manufacturing capacity by 2025 across the full PV value chain. The alliance will foster an innovative and value-creating industry in Europe, which leads to job creation here. Europe’s solar industry already created more than 357,000 jobs. We have the potential to double these figures by the end of the decade.”

30GW would be 3.6 times the 8.3GW estimate of European PC module capacity in 2021 issued by Intersolar. More recent data is hard to come by – McKinsey & Company gave a range of 6GW to 8GW in a report issued at the end of 2022, which seems oddly low,  

But if Europe’s capacity is currently 10GW, then that would be just 15% of the 68.6GW installation demand forecast for Europe by market researcher TrendForce in February. Most of the rest comes from China.

The EU wants to raise its self-sufficiency in PV module production to 40% by 2030. That might sound like a modest target, but the EU also wants to increase Europe’s total installed solar power generating capacity from a bit more than 200GW in 2022 to 320GW by 2025 and nearly 600GW by 2030. 

This will require financing amounting to tens of billions of euros, which will be mostly private but directed and supported by EU policy funds. 

Intersolar Europe is part of the so-called “smarter E Europe.” This year, it was held in conjunction with three related exhibitions: ees Europe (batteries and energy storage systems), Power2Drive Europe (charging infrastructure and electric vehicles) and EM-Power Europe (energy management and integrated energy solutions). 

The smarter E Europe, which bills itself as “Europe’s largest platform for the energy industry,” promotes renewable energy, the decentralization and digitalization of the energy industry, and coordination of the electric power, heating and transport sectors.

Intersolar Europe 2023 alone attracted 1,372 exhibitors; the combined events attracted 2,469 exhibitors from 57 countries and more than 106,000 visitors from 166 countries. 

Source: TrendForce data; Asia Time chart

Exhibitors included manufacturers of solar wafers, cells, modules, PV production equipment, and providers of related services. In addition to the product exhibitions, there were presentations on cell and module technologies and production equipment made in Europe. 

While Europe has a legitimate solar power supply chain, it still lacks economies of scale. According to McKinsey & Company, European companies have only 11% of the global market for solar polysilicon, 1% for ingots and wafers, 1% for solar cells and 3% for PV modules. 

By 2025, those shares are expected to increase to 12%, 4%, 4% and 5%, respectively. Wacker is the only European maker of solar polysilicon and the only European company in the industry with a significant market share. 

However, as noted by Intersolar:

“The European PV industry is already taking action in response to the growing demand. Here are some recent examples: SMA Solar Technology (Germany) is building a 20GW factory for system solutions for large-scale PV plants in Hesse. Inverter manufacturer Fronius (Austria) is investing 233 million euros in expanding its production capacity this year. Belinus (Belgium) is planning 5GW module factories in Belgium and Georgia, respectively, and FuturaSun (Italy) is planning a 2GW module factory in Cittadella (Veneto). Italian utility company Enel is building a 3GW module factory in Sicily and Lithuanian module manufacturer Solitek is investing in a new factory in Italy.”

Sources: REPowerEU, market research company data; Asia Times chart

China is far and away the largest producer and user of solar power, producing close to 80% of the world’s solar silicon, 95% of its solar ingots and wafers, 75% of its solar cells and 70% of its solar modules, according to McKinsey & Company. 

More than half of Chinese-made PV modules were exported in 2022, according to PVTIME, and the largest market for those modules was Europe. 

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), China accounted for 37% of total worldwide installed PV solar energy capacity in 2022, followed by the EU at 19%, the US at 11%, Japan at 7.5% and Germany and India at about 6% each. 

Source: IRENA data; Asia Times chart

Moreover, China is likely to install more than twice as much PV capacity in 2023 as Europe and 3.7 times as much as the US, according to data from TrendForce.

Source: TrendForce data; Asia Times chart

Seven out of the top 10 suppliers of PV modules are Chinese. One is headquartered in Canada but makes most of its products in China, one is American and one is South Korean. 

Lists compiled by other market research outfits are slightly different, but all of them show a preponderance of Chinese companies and no European companies except for Q-Cells of Germany, which was rescued from bankruptcy and acquired by South Korea’s Hanwha Group in 2012.

China’s enormous production capacity, supported by a complete supply chain of materials, equipment, production and assembly, gives it unmatched economies of scale and a cost advantage it is unlikely to lose even if Europe reaches its energy sovereignty goals. 

The gap is wide: Market research and consulting company Wood MacKenzie reports that Chinese PC modules were sometimes less than half the price of modules made elsewhere in 2022. But issues of energy security and the long-term development of European industry are taking priority over price. 

The difference will have to be made up with subsidies and the restriction of imports. Nevertheless, by its own calculations, Europe will remain dependent on China for a large share of the solar power capacity it plans to install for years to come. 

On the other hand, the revitalization of the European solar power manufacturing industry should speed up the move away from fossil fuels and contribute to the development of new clean technologies.

The EU aims to scale up production of solar photovoltaic products and components in order to accelerate the deployment of solar power and make its energy system more robust. 

The final version of its Solar Energy Strategy, announced last year, names EIT InnoEnergy as the leader of its Solar Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, with Solar Power Europe and the European Solar Manufacturing Council also on its steering committee.

EIT InnoEnergy brings together innovators and industry, entrepreneurs and investors, graduates and employers to facilitate the development of sustainable energy and decarbonization. It supports education and invests in start-ups and companies with untapped growth potential. So far, it has invested in about 180 companies. 

SolarPower Europe is an association with some 300 members that connects policymakers and the solar industry. The European Solar Manufacturing Council represents the interests of the European PV manufacturing industry. 

Follow this writer on Twitter: @ScottFo83517667

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US is losing Asia’s multilateral trade game

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Digital trade has reduced the costs of engaging in international trade, facilitated the coordination of global value chains and connected a greater number of businesses and consumers globally. 

Digital technologies will undoubtedly create new products, services, markets and opportunities for business development. The United States and China have sought to capitalize on this growth potential, albeit with varying levels of success.

Digital economy contributes to more than 15% of global GDP according to the World Bank — much of this comes from digital trade, which spans from the trade of technological goods to digitally-enabled services.

Recently, approaches to digital trade are diversifying, especially in China and the United States. Both have increased their influence in digital transformation through various economic frameworks, including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF). 

RCEP is a thorough trade agreement that goes beyond trade liberalization, including digital trade. The IPEF is also a substantial economic partnership that covers diverse sectors such as digital trade.

The IPEF was initiated by the United States on May 23, 2022, inviting Australia, Brunei Darussalam, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam to join the framework. The IPEF aims to define shared objectives around four pillars — trade, supply chains, clean economy and fair economy.

The trade pillar highlights the urgency of digital trade cooperation and aims to promote an inclusive digital economy by increasing access to the internet and information, facilitating digital trade, resolving discriminatory practices and enhancing the security and resiliency of digital infrastructure.

Joe Biden’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework aims to counterbalance China’s rising power and influence in Southeast Asia. Image: Facebook

Through the IPEF, the United States differentiates itself from China’s data sovereignty approach by encouraging free and open data flow. The IPEF seeks to reduce localization requirements and limitations on cross-border data flows to promote more open digital trade. 

The IPEF further affirms its commitment to supporting reliable cross-border data flows, an inclusive digital economy with sustainable growth and responsible utilization of emerging technologies — it is more extensive than RCEP.

By contrast, as the largest trading bloc, RCEP offers tariff adjustments, dispute settlement mechanisms and trade remedies that induce better cooperation and commitment to achieve common objectives. All ASEAN members and five external partners — Australia, China, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand — have signed it.

RCEP addresses digital trade as electronic commerce, referencing trade in traditional commodities delivered with the assistance of digital technologies. 

RCEP will create digital economy opportunities by promoting cooperation in research and training activities, capacity building and empowering small and medium-sized enterprises to utilize e-commerce platforms. 

This is an important benefit as digital trade is relatively new in the global trade regime and most RCEP members need different levels of assistance for digital transformation. China plays a significant role in influencing the digital economy system for RCEP members. Its digital economy model has become the leader in the Indo-Pacific region. 

Several major Chinese companies — including WeChat and Alipay — have pioneered cross-border payments and developed practices that others can emulate. China’s digital economy has also produced many business opportunities.

By asserting its influence in RCEP, China is expected to contribute to the revitalization of the digital trade regime in the Indo-Pacific region. Because of China’s growing influence, the IPEF may have been created because of the Biden administration’s concern about its weakening influence in Asia, rather than because of economic considerations.

RCEP comes with a take-it-or-leave-it approach which obliges member states to comply with provisions outlined in the agreement. But in implementing e-commerce provisions, RCEP respects the national interests of member states to determine appropriate measures that suit their circumstances.

In contrast, the IPEF adopts a flexible approach that allows member states to opt out from any pillar they are not interested in, exemplified by India’s refusal to join Pillar 1 focused on trade. This renders some commitments of the framework unexecuted. 

If there is no guarantee that domestic reforms will be implemented equally, member states will be reluctant to initiate reformative steps, resulting in ineffective partnerships. The lack of economic incentives — including tariff adjustments — reduce the framework’s appeal to member states.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi talks to then-Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (center) and Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha during the third RCEP Summit in Bangkok on November 4, 2019, on the sidelines of the 35th ASEAN Summit. Photo: AFP / Manan Vatsyayana

Regarding compliance mechanisms, RCEP members can resort to trade remedies and dispute settlement mechanisms. But RCEP’s e-commerce chapter does not fall under the jurisdiction of its dispute settlement mechanisms, making any disputes over interpretation and implementation subject to good faith negotiation. 

RCEP’s upcoming five-yearly general review allows member states to re-evaluate whether these dispute mechanisms should apply to e-commerce-related disputes.

Yet the absence of dispute settlement mechanisms or other trade remedies in the IPEF signifies its unenforceability. It is undecided whether the IPEF will adopt a binding dispute settlement mechanism or any trade remedies. 

The IPEF does not offer tariff adjustments or traditional market access commitments, creating hesitation about whether the provisions will be enforceable. Trade agreements tend to be ineffective without retaliatory tariff measures as a deterrent — the absence of these aspects will only make it difficult for the IPEF to achieve its objectives.

The United States needs to put in more effort to counter China’s regional influence as the IPEF has not offered viable benefits such as tariff adjustments, mutual market access, capacity building and technical assistance in developing digital trade frameworks — all are present in RCEP. 

The IPEF should discuss trade liberalization, compliance mechanisms and tangible incentives to become a prominent economic framework.

Ulfah Aulia is a research assistant at the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) based in Jakarta. Sheila Alifia is a non-affiliated researcher based in Jakarta.

This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.

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Geopolitics moves into the underwater world 

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Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, has claimed that Russia could undermine the Western network of communication cables at the bottom of the Atlantic.

For the record, only 1-4% of data is distributed via communications satellites; the rest comes via fiber-optic cables. Thus if Medvedev’s threat were to materialize, the consequences for the world economy would be comparable to a nuclear strike.

For example, a 2006 earthquake damaged eight cables around Taiwan, disrupting communications and trade across Asia and affecting the Hang Seng Index accordingly. In 2008, 75 million people in the Middle East and India were left without communication because of a badly dropped anchor by a passing ship.

The obvious conclusion is that whoever owns the cables chooses the tune. The United States is well aware of this and is doing everything possible to keep unfriendly competitors out of the market. The State Department’s efforts have prevented at least six deals with Chinese companies.

An widespread attack on ocean networks would affect everyone, from tankers to the neighborhood coffee shop, and the losses would be in the trillions. It is unlikely that anyone with common sense would order such a global blackout, but a local one is entirely possible.

Incidentally, in February, Chinese boats allegedly cut two cables near the Matsu Islands off Taiwan.

In general, even if the threats remain threats, the popularity of satellite communication channels may grow, as well as the services of General Dynamics, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, and SpaceX, so it may be a good time to add some of the prospects to the stock screener.

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Keeping poor kids at school

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Anirut 'Saming' Thongdech, 11, smiles after returning to school. Kruwandum Facebook
Anirut ‘Saming’ Thongdech, 11, smiles after returning to school. Kruwandum Facebook

Anirut Thongdech has a broad smile when he learns that he will have a chance to return to school this term after having dropped out for two years.

The 11-year-old boy, also known as Saming, was forced to leave school due to his parents’ inability to afford his education, a problem in Thai society that has worsened since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Saming was born to a family living a hand-to-mouth existance. His parents earn money by collecting recyclables and selling them to junkyards. He has two siblings, a 14-year-old brother, who dropped out of Grade 4 three years ago for the same reason as Saming, and a two-year-old sister.

The family had no place to live, so the abbot of Wat Trangkhapum Putthawat, a temple in Trang province’s Kantang district, let the family reside at the temple and ordained the eldest son. The son brings food to his family after daily alms rounds in which monks collect food or offerings from followers nearby.

With the help of the director of Wat Trangkhapum Putthawat Municipal School, near the temple, Saming was offered the opportunity to be a Grade 1 student again.

School director Kalasit Petkong told the Bangkok Post that many students had to give up school during the Covid-19 pandemic after their parents lost their jobs.

Saming is one of those students. His parents became unemployed after the pandemic hit, losing their home and forcing them to make a living by collecting and selling rubbish, Mr Kalasit said.

“We offered Saming school uniforms and some money for stationery and textbooks,” he said. “We would like to help as much as we can to get him back to school.”

The temple school is small, with 97 kindergarten–Grade 6 students and 18 staff. External factors, such as finance and family conditions, still disrupt the children’s attendance.

Chatree Bunmee, the school’s deputy director, said 60–70% of the students come from broken homes. Most parents do not earn much and are likely to relocate with their children to wherever their next job might be.

Mr Chatree said the school has offered his parents work as vegetable farmers at the school so they can use its unused land to grow plants and sell them to earn money.

“We also took Saming’s older brother, Smith, back to school. He is now studying in Grade 4,” he said. “Even though Smith is a novice, the school welcomes him together with his monkhood.”

Many teachers at the schools and locals in Kantang district have donated small amounts of money to help Saming’s family get by. However, the school director acknowledges that temporary subsidies can only keep their heads above water.

He said that the Department of Local Administration offers stipends for low-income households whose members make less than 3,000 baht per month each.

Another stipend, listed under the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) project, also provides 3,000 baht per student per year, he said.

“The school can ease student burden but state welfare will better prevent dropouts in the long run,” he said.

Increased dropout rate

In March, Unicef Thailand pointed to a study on youths who were “not in education, employment or training (Neet)”, which found that 70% of students who drop out have no plans to further their education.

Meanwhile, some 70% of drop-outs are young women who quit school to take care of their families, it said.

Data from the Equitable Education Fund (EEF) also shows that out of the 7 million students in both public and private schools, over 800,000 are from extremely poor families, making them at risk of dropping out.

Students from extremely poor families are also excluded from education by other factors. A survey by EEF found that many students do not have access to clean water, electricity, transport or the internet. Some are required to stay home to take care of disabled or unemployed family members, it said.

Even though the nation’s 15-year compulsory education programme claims to be free of charge, students and parents are still required to pay additional expenses.

Kraiyos Patrawart, EEF managing director, said parents are faced with application and admission fees on top of the cost of uniforms and stationery.

“Many families have to borrow from pawn shops or loan sharks before the term starts,” he said. “The data shows that students from extremely poor families are often slow to enrol in school despite their age because it takes a long time for their parents to save up money for school-related expenses.”

Such expenses can dissuade low-income parents from enrolling their children at all, he said.

‘Four uniforms in 1 week’

Mr Kraiyos said school regulations need to be less restrictive and the education system decentralised to prevent students from dropping out.

“Education should be more lenient for students from unprivileged backgrounds,” he said. “Some schools require their students to wear a basic uniform, a gym uniform, a scout uniform and, in some provincial schools, an ethnic-inspired uniform. That is four sets of uniforms in one week.”

He said schools should offer alternatives for students with different needs, and should be allowed to raise funds for students from low-income families.

Changes appropriate for provincial schools can be quickly endorsed if the government decentralises the system, he added.

Provincial authorities, such as the governor and district and village chiefs, can approach the matter by drawing on their knowledge of the needs and difficulties of locals.

Mr Kraiyos said schools in different provinces do not share the same challenges. Low-income families certainly have different needs in different areas, he said.

“The EEF is advocating for school autonomy,” he said. “We believe local authorities can reduce inequality [in the system].”

Aiming for zero dropouts

The election has brought hope of positive change in many aspects of society, including education. However, Thais are still unsure when the next government can take office.

The name of the next education minister still remains unknown, yet the EEF has proposed three policies which it says should be adopted urgently by the next government.

Mr Kraiyos said the EEF focuses on the concept of universal education security, which aims to provide free education from kindergarten to Grade 12, more leniency in schools and assistance in the system, and its decentralisation.

Education security needs to be guaranteed to prevent student drop-outs, it says. Mr Kraiyos said the CCT stipend only covers recipients in Grades 1–9.

The EEF proposes the new government not only extend the eligibility of CCT recipients but also raises the amount for the first time in 14 years.

A more lenient education system also is expected to offer alternatives to students, such as self-designed programmes or a national credit bank to allow students to study in any institution across Thailand any time they wish, to encourage life-long learning.

Mr Kraiyos said that more technologies will be applied to develop online learning platforms, a project which should be pushed along with government-funded internet and tablets for students.

Lastly, decentralisation of the system will contribute greatly to preventing students from dropping out. Local administrations can share their problems and mutual goals to improve the lives of students from underprivileged backgrounds.

Additionally, the EEF is pushing a provincial hub to manage human resource information in each area and help labourers stay competitive in the workforce.

Mr Kraiyos suggested the government promote a tax exemption for companies who may sponsor scholarships to students from low-income families, an incentive that would aid many students more quickly than the government’s funds.

“Thailand is the first country among developing nations to be officially an aged society. We cannot afford to have even a single dropout in our education system,” said Mr Kraiyos.

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