A student association in India reported harassment and intimidation of students from Indian-administered Kashmir on Thursday ( Apr 24 ), following a gruesome attack in the Himalayan region that resulted in the death of more than 20 Indian men. 26 men were killed by gunmen on Tuesday in the holidayContinue Reading
Around 20 kids flung to the airport in Uttarakhand’s investment capital Dehradun on Wednesday following instructions from Hindu Raksha Dal, a border right-wing organization. The students claimed that if they did not leave area right away, the party would have severe consequences for Kashmiri Muslim students. Omar Abdullah, the chiefContinue Reading
Muhammad Ali Tabba, CEO of Lucky Cement and chairman of National Resources Limited ( NRL), revealed what he claimed are the Chagai district of Balochistan’s substantial gold and copper reserves at the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum 2025.
The discovery, which was made in the presence of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Muhammad Asim Munir, could pave the way for Pakistan’s lagging mining sector, at a time when global gold prices are at record peaks of over US$ 3,400 per gram.
NRL, a utterly Pakistani-owned company that operates under the banners of Fatima Fertilizer, Liberty Mills, and Happy Cement, obtained an inquiry force in Chagai in October 2023. Within the span of 18 months, it claims to have found 16 mineral-rich locations spread out over a 500-square-kilometer area, with cutting at the Tang Kor, Chagai site apparently proving the presence of significant deposits.
The largest state in Pakistan by area, Balochistan, is a geographical treasure. The Tethyan Magmatic Arc, a mineral-rich region that stretches from Europe to Southeast Asia and is renowned for its abundance of copper and gold, surrounds the Chagai place.
The nearby Reko Diq mine, which is estimated to have 5.9 billion tonnes of ore, grades 0.42 grams per kilogram of gold and 0.41 % brass, making it one of the largest untapped resources in the world.
First cutting on the NRL Tang Kor website revealed copper concentrations ranging from 0.23 to 0.44 percent, along with traces of gold and silver, to round out this. Three and a half of the three million diamonds drill holes apparently struck mineralized zones, underscoring the deposit’s enormous potential.
Making this finding a prospective lifeline, Pakistan is in a dire financial position with shrinking international currency reserves, mounting debt, and import dependence. The country’s$ 6 trillion in mineral wealth has been largely untapped.
Along with innovations like Reko Diq, where Barrick Gold plans to mine 200, 000 kilograms of brass and 250, 000 ounces of gold annually by 2028, NRL’s discovery had contribute billions to Pakistan’s business and Balochistan’s growth.
The discovery raises age-old questions about good revenue distribution and environmental impact in Balochistan, one of Pakistan’s least developed and generally restive regions.
Cultural Baloch insurgent groups generally target provincial resource and infrastructure investments, in part because they disproportionately favor local communities over Islamabad and its allies ‘ international interests, including Chinese companies.
The partnership between NRL and the Balochistan government and the Special Investment Facilitation Council ( SIFC), as well as a$ 100 million exploration budget for two new licenses, demonstrates a determined effort to make the most of this opportunity.
Balochistan’s abundance of resources contrasts striking with its poverty. The state still has the lowest fundamental human development indicators, accounting for 35 to 45 percent of Pakistan’s natural fuel and brimming with minerals. Around 85 % of the province’s residents lack access to clean water, 75 % have no electricity, and 63 % are impoverished.
However, if handled wisely and fairly, these newly discovered treasures could change Balochistan’s grave tale. The company’s stated goal is to fill these gaps, at least artistically, by promoting community engagement and local employment.
There is law to doubt business promises of trickle-down. For example, the Saindak plant, which has been operating since the 1970s, produces 15, 800 tonnes of brass, 1.5 tonnes of gold, and 2.8 tons of silver yearly, but the benefits are hardly ever felt by locals.
The upside is enormous. According to company estimates, Reko Diq could generate$ 70 billion in free cash flow and$ 90 billion in operating cash flow over the course of a decade. If NRL’s deposits be of this size, their extraction could boost GDP, lead to considerable well-paying jobs, and provide desperately needed infrastructure in Balochistan.
A local person like NRL may keep more money in-country, in contrast to earlier foreign-led initiatives. Its efforts to attract investors and its agreements with the Oil and Gas Development Company ( OGDC ) all point to a scalable strategy.
However, enthusiasm must be at a slack. Balochistan received only 2 % of Saindak’s earnings, despite controversy over revenue cuts and local carelessness in previous projects like Saindak and Reko Diq.
Fair policies, such as guaranteeing royalties, native work, and investments in health, education, and water, are essential for NRL’s victory. Although the Balochistan Development Plan and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor ( CPEC ) Gwadar Port provide a blueprint, fair implementation will be important.
Of course, the financial gain comes with economic considerations. The climate in Baluchistan is as tough as it is delicate, with summers reaching 53°C and seasons reaching -20°C in higher elevations. In Balochistan, mine requires a lot of water and energy, both of which are limited resources.
Saindak has faced criticism for using effluent and residues to pollute water and deplete liquid. The possible processing and drilling by Tang Kor could make these issues worse, especially if NRL chooses to conduct downstream operations that may poison rivers, harm crops, and worsen health crises.
Mining produces 4 to 7 % of the world’s greenhouse gases, with metal production producing about 2.5 tonnes of CO2 per kilogram.
NRL’s production, on par with Reko Diq’s level, could add hundreds of thousands of kilos of emissions annually, straining a region already affected by climate change, such as desert and erratic rains. Mining-related debris could also be harmful to the environment and the general public.
Mine may contribute to Balochistan’s already shaky culture, which could worsen the situation. Severe weather has increased in the province; in 2022, floods destroyed crops and caused thousands of people to flee, and persistent droughts caused arable land to shrink. The drier ecosystem of Chaagai, which is home to sparse vegetation and endangered species like the Balochistan bear, is threatened by mining sprawl.
Water-intensive businesses run the risk of drying up springs and reservoirs, which are essential for nomadic landowners and small farmers. In a state with high tectonic activity, heavy machinery and blasting was destabilize the region’s rugged terrain, raising the risk of landslides.
NRL projects may crumble Balochistan’s delicate environmental balance without careful and thorough planning.
On the other hand, copper could potentially help the world decarbonization because it is so important for alternative technologies like wind farms and electric vehicles. Nearby command at NRL may impose stricter environmental laws than have been applied by foreign companies in the past.
Some advanced mine ‘ use of solar power or water reuse could reduce the damage. To achieve a balance between earnings and survival, the$ 100 million exploration fund could be used to fund conservation research. If NRL contributes perhaps a small amount to Balochistan’s Climate Resilience Fund, it was foster confidence and social cohesion among Chaghi’s indigenous populations.
A good and equitable outcome depends on learning from the past, but NRL’s Chagai consider has the potential to be a turning point for Pakistan and Balochistan. If significant profits remain nearby, the breakthrough may reduce trade dependence, boost foreign dollar reserves, and end Balochistan’s poverty.
The margins are highlighted by the 2025 Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum, which immediately had the attention of Chagai. The potential 15 % interest in Saudi Arabia in Reko Diq and Barrick’s$ 2 billion funding imply that Pakistan’s mineral wealth is ideal for successful removal.
In the end, NRL’s gold and copper reserves are more than just a geographical windfall; they are essential to Pakistan’s effort to achieve equitable and sustained economic progress.
The finding could signal a future where wealth and the environment, not just local leaders or outsiders, are at play in Balochistan. Pakistan and Balochistan must make sure that this promise doesn’t turn into yet another tale of wasted claim.
No president has felt the sting of US President Donald Trump’s tax war as strongly as India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, despite the fact that no other leader has. Caught in a high-stakes political connect, India is grappling with an philosophical problem: balancing its crucial economic ties with China against the beauty of the American business.
The Trump administration imposed a 26 % “reciprocal” tax on American goods on April 2, 2025, putting New Delhi in tense negotiations to gain access to the country’s largest export location, the US.
India’s response has betrayed a shocking respect, as evidenced by the rapid and significant trade work cuts on Harley-Davidson scooters and American-made whiskey liquor amid a large pledge  to lift down trade barriers. New Delhi has furthermore announced plans to buy more US strength and protection products in a bid to appease Trump.
The Trump administration has used a 90-day relief on the tariffs to pressure India into a more comprehensive National strategy to isolate China financially and carefully. US Vice President JD Vance made a notable four-day visit to Delhi on April 22 as part of this political unpleasant.
Ostensibly a family affair—Vance, with his Indian-origin wife and children, framed the trip as a nod to his Sasural ( “in-laws” ) and his kids ‘” Nana-Nani” ( maternal grandparents ) —the visit’s true purpose is to tighten the screws on India and secure its alignment against Beijing.
Trump uses the rod of tariffs to fudge Modi’s wishes in his second term, replacing the vegetable of American investment moving from China to India in his first.
Ajay Seth, the secretary of economic affairs, claimed this week that the” first order” hit from 26 % tariffs on India could reduce GDP by between 0.2 % and 0.5 %, which he said was” not a significant impact.” However, underscoring the urgency of the situation, New Delhi planned to transport both its chief trade communicator and finance secretary to Washington this week before the terrible Kashmir problems.
India’s plight is rooted in its divided financial fact. To produce ultimate products for trade, especially to the US, its business center, which is frequently just an “assembly line,” relies heavily on Chinese transitional goods, raw materials, funds equipment, technology, and investment.
In 2024-25, China accounted for over 14 % of India’s full international trade, while India’s goods contributed a simple 1.9 % to China’s international trade, highlighting a striking imbalance. India can import Chinese components, arrange them, and trade finished goods to the US now because a 35 % value addition there qualifies as enough for a “rules of origin” certificate.
Nevertheless, this type makes India susceptible to a proportion readjustment. Tilting toward the US challenges Chinese retribution that could drown its production ranges, leaning toward China threatens to renounce US market access.
India’s fundamental problem is this. Beijing may impose a bombardment of punitive measures, both explicit and implicit, that would deteriorate India’s economic trajectory, erode its security, and weaken its regional influence, much like it did in 2020 in a punitive response to the tensions in the Himalayas.
China’s most immediate tool would be business adjustment, exploiting India’s$ 100 billion deal gap in 2024-25. India’s exposure to Chinese and allied markets may be restricted by Beijing’s imposing steep tariffs or non-tariff obstacles, such as stringent quality checks, on American exports like agro products, textiles, and leather goods.
China might restrict exports of important inputs, including smartphone components, pharmaceutical precursors ( 70 % of India’s supply ), and industrial machinery, even more severely. In 2020, when India tightened attention on Chinese opportunities, Beijing retaliated by blocking engineers ‘ and technicians ‘ visits and technology shipments, a methodology it may rise to even more damaging effect immediately.
Such restrictions would stifle India’s tightly bound smartphone, pharmaceutical, and solar energy sectors, which are all closely linked to Chinese supply chains. China could further skew the trade balance, shrinking India’s export revenues, by selectively lowering imports of Indian goods.
With China constituting over a third of India’s foreign trade, these measures could precipitate a severe economic contraction, hobbling India’s industrial ambitions and global market competitiveness.
China has another means of squeezing India with financial leverage. Beijing could stifle trade financing for Indian businesses by tightening payment terms, putting off processing, or restricting credit flow through Chinese banks with$ 3.24 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and significant influence in global finance. After India’s 2020 ban on Chinese apps, Chinese investors curtailed funding to Indian startups, a precedent that could expand to broader sectors.
China might halt investments in recently approved joint ventures like Vivo, Suzhou Inovance, and ZNShine if India’s US alignment is further strained, undermining India’s plans for manufacturing growth and technology transfer.
By putting Indian projects prioritizing them, China may have a more subtle impact on India’s access to multilateral financial institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank or the New Development Bank. These financial chokeholds could starve India’s industrial and infrastructure initiatives, limiting its ability to scale up domestic production or diversify away from Chinese inputs.
China might target India’s nascent digital and defense sectors in the technological sphere. Chinese tech companies like Huawei and ZTE have a share of the power behind India’s 5G networks and smart city projects. Beijing could derail India’s digital infrastructure by restricting access or withholding technical support.
In a report from the Harvard Belfer Center for 2021, China’s dominance in semiconductors, 5G, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence was highlighted. India’s newly established semiconductor industry and defense manufacturing, which depend on Chinese inputs for advanced electronics, could be hampered by an embargo on semiconductors or high-tech components.
China could also complicate operations for its tech firms in India, halting solar panels or telecom equipment supplies. Such alterations would halt India’s advancement in technology and weaken its strategic abilities, particularly in defense systems that are crucial for battling regional threats.
An even greater existential risk is posed by China’s stranglehold on critical raw minerals ( CRMs) and rare earth elements ( REEs ). In 2023, India identified 30 critical minerals vital for electric vehicles ( EVs ), semiconductors, defense equipment, and renewable energy, including lithium, cobalt, gallium, titanium, graphite, silicon, bismuth, tellurium, and REEs like neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium.
India is the fifth-largest store in the world with 6.9 million metric tons of REE reserves, but its processing and refining capacity is inestimable. It imports 60 % of its REE imports from China, and over 40 % of its six CRMs, including graphite ( 42.4 % ), lithium ( 82 % ), silicon ( 76 % ), titanium ( 50 % ), and lithium ( 85.6 % ), lithium ( 82 % ), and titanium ( 50.6 % ) ) and lithium ( 42.4 % ) of those products. Beijing controls 87 % of global REE processing, 58 % of lithium refining and 68 % of silicon refining.
India’s plans for 30 % EV penetration by 2030, its semiconductor manufacturing plans, and its defense production, which rely on REEs for missiles, radar, and guidance systems, could be devastated by a Chinese export ban. India’s smartphone sector, which relies heavily on Chinese components, and its pharmaceutical sector, which relies on China for 70 % of its precursors, would experience severe shortages.
While India seeks alternatives through the Mineral Security Partnership and Australian partnerships, decoupling from China’s dominance could take decades. Thus, India’s industrial and strategic goals would suffer a terrible blow if an embargo were to be implemented.
China might use its diplomatic position to isolate India from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO ) and BRICS by portraying its US support as a betrayal of collective interests. In 2024, China’s foreign ministry condemned such alliances, and Beijing could rally SCO members like Pakistan and Russia to obstruct India’s initiatives.
China might strengthen ties with Brazil, South Africa, and other newly incorporated nations in BRICS , which would marginalize New Delhi. Regionally, Beijing could intensify Belt and Road Initiative projects in India’s neighbors—Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Bangladesh—eroding India’s” Neighbourhood First” policy.
Chinese ambassador Chen Song emphasized BRI’s role in South Asia in 2023, signaling Beijing’s desire to encircle India. Such maneuvers would undermine India’s regional influence, isolate it diplomatically, and alienate it from its allies in the Global South, and make it appear as a Western proxy.
If India persists in antagonizing China, Beijing could escalate to hard measures. As seen in the 2020 Galwan clash, border tensions may rekindle with incursions in Ladakh or Arunachal Pradesh. China deployed 100 advanced rocket launchers along the Line of Actual Control in 2021, indicating its readiness to escalate.
Naval exercises in the Indian Ocean, leveraging ports like Gwadar, Hambantota and Chattogram, could challenge India’s maritime dominance. India’s telecom, energy, and banking sectors could be targeted by cyberattacks, such as the 2020 Mumbai power outage brought on by Chinese state-sponsored organizations, potentially suffocating its economy.
Proxy threats made by Pakistan or Myanmar, which are potentially armed by China, could put strain on India’s security apparatus on multiple fronts.
Soft power offers China a subtler tool to destabilize Modi’s domestic standing. A goodwill gesture was made in 2024 to allow Indian pilgrimages to begin at Tibet’s Kailash Mansarovar, a sacred site for Hindus, Jains, and Buddhists. These communities may react negatively to a new ban, putting strain on Modi’s political standing.
In Washington, India’s trade talks with the US this week will test Modi’s ability to navigate this minefield. Beijing clearly has the upper hand with its outsized role in India’s supply chains and minimal reliance on Indian trade.
Modi might have to balance the risks of defiance against the risks of dependence as a result of a mistake that could plunge India into economic turmoil, compromise its security, and weaken its reputation globally.
Bhim Bhurtel is on X at , @BhimBhurtel
Bangkok: Thailand’s exports increased for the ninth consecutive month in March, more than expected, and they reached their highest level in three years, but steep US tariffs are still a problem, according to the commerce ministry’s statement on Thursday ( Apr 24 ). Exports, a major force behind Southeast Asia’sContinue Reading
Even among some of the world’s leading economic thinkers, confident predictions are currently hard to come by, according to the International Monetary Fund ( IMF)’s ( IMF) just released its World Economic Outlook.
A fortnight of seminars, presentations, and press events focusing on the worldwide economy, foreign growth, and world financial markets are held each flower in Washington, DC. The IMF releases its global economic growth prediction at both the flower discussions and the annual meetings, which are held each fall.
The IMF has released a foundation estimates and an clause analyzing the tax events that occurred between April 9 and April 14 for its spring meeting in 2025. According to the fund’s report, world GDP will grow by 2.8 % in 2025 and 3.0 % in 2026. For the euro area, growth will be 0.8 % and 1.2 % for 2025 and 2026 respectively.
These projections are significantly revised from IMF data that was released just three months ago. Growth in the euro area is down 0.2 % compared to the fund’s January update, and growth globally is down by 0.5 %.
We live in a much more ambiguous world than we did three months ago, so understanding the most recent IMF document and its negative estimates is essential.
The term “unpredictable” may be sufficient if one had to total up the new US tax scheme in one word. The largest price increase in modern history occurred on April 2, 2025, referred to as” Liberation Day.”
The US leader next made two more presentations only one year later. Second, a 90-day ban on tax increases, which he allegedly did in search of bilateral treaties with the nations to which he had applied levies above 10 %. Next, that China would not be subject to this restriction, with the price increases on its goods increasing to 145 %.
This freeze means that until July, EU products that are sold to the US will be subject to a 10 % tariff rather than the 20 % that was announced on April 2. The new US administration’s 10 % application is still significantly higher than the standard tariff of 1.34 % that was in effect before April 5th, though.
But what will the price get after these 90 time? What will happen in December? What will happen in two centuries? What products will not be subject to the exemption? How far will China’s trade war with the US come? Nobody knows the answer to all of these issues. The IMF’s flower forecast for this uncertainty is clear.
The world industry doubt index from the IMF is now seven times higher than it was in October 2024, which is significantly higher than the pandemic.
This uncertainty affects the economy more severely than a large but clear tariff. Companies can at least restructure their manufacturing processes with a price, and customers can look for alternative goods. There is a charge, but at least businesses and consumers can make plans.
No one can determine these expenses now, though, because no one is aware of the impact of tariff changes. A US company might choose to purchase a particular product from the EU immediately assuming the price will be 10 %, but it turns out that the price has increased to 100 % once the product has arrived in the US because a political advisor predicted raising tariffs on that product would benefit the US economy.
Although it may seem incredible, the levies are being decided and put into effect in reality. According to one theory, Peter Navarro, the government’s financial advisor and tax idealist, was in another room at the time, so they were only able to persuade Trump to stop new tax increases.
Silence is ultimately the best course of action for both consumers and businesses because of this volatility.
It should come as no surprise that financial markets are so unstable because of these regular plan changes. Financial areas are now experiencing levels of uncertainty and anxiety comparable to those seen during Covid-19, despite Trump’s proudly humblingly praising rising share prices soon after the price freeze was announced.
Five years ago, uncertainty was linked to a rise in the demand for US government bonds as a result of the “flight to health” effect, which forces investors to sell higher-risk investments and purchase safer assets like gold and government bonds in times of doubt.
We are now seeing the exact same. Since” Liberation Day,” the price of US bonds has decreased, which indicates that investors are selling them. In other words, the US government’s bill is no longer viewed as a protected asset. This paradigm shift may lead to even more financial volatility in the future given the impact of the money and US bill on global industry.
One thing shares the recent situation with Covid-19, the next big global economic crisis, with the upheaval of global supply chains. Production was compelled to cease during the pandemic due to confinement. It is the imposition of tariffs as of right now.
There is, nevertheless, a second significant change. People were aware that there would only be so long before vaccines would be accessible and normal would return during Covid. Today, President Trump’s own advisors sell him all kinds of plans to protect US economical interests, hardly any disease, but rather instability in financial markets.
At the Universitat de Barcelona, Sergi Basco is the head of economics.
This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.
People in Asia was now trying to lessen China’s presence in the manufacturing industry. Suppliers and policymakers in this country are concerned that Chinese overcapacity did overflow their household areas with cheap imports as markets in the West shut themselves to Chinese goods.
However, these nations ‘ opportunities aren’t always in line with one another. They are competing with one another to take the place of Taiwanese suppliers in particular industries, for instance. Some would want to” cheat” any final agreement by doing so as much as possible with Chinese goods, or by assembling goods for a lower-than-us price in factories on the mainland.
To bring these various passions up, something else will be required. It’s unclear what the US has to sell if both support and business are on the board.
Trump believes that having access to US consumers is much of a vegetable, but the benefits of that business may not be as promising for nations that are locked in a race against one another and Beijing. After all, if China is ordered to leave their supply stores, it may cause too much of an increase in their costs to enter the US marketplace.
A coalition for fairer business may require customized strategies for each of these nations. He needs his employer to play on, even if Bessent can figure it out. Any agreement will necessitate Trump’s eagerness to tussle over the details and respect for these nations ‘ freedom.
Trump has promised to communicate with “more than 75” nations, according to him, who allegedly reached out to the US. He will have to acknowledge that the majority of his Eastern partners aren’t trying to defraud the US in any such negotiations.
After Xi’s trip to Vietnam, the president claimed the meeting’s goal was to” try to figure out, how do we screw the United States of America”; however, for a change of heart seems unlikely.
A business partnership that excludes China, guarantees that US local laws and higher standards won’t make its producers unprofitable, and establishes new provide chains that include US workers will be beneficial.
Trump actually requires a cooperative effort with supporters across the Pacific Ocean in order to accomplish his goals. A trans-Pacific relationship, if you will.
BBC News
Getty ImagesThe two biggest markets of the world are currently engaged in a business war that is in full swing.
Beijing has responded with a 125 % tax on American goods, and Chinese exports to the US are subject to up to 245 % tariffs. As consumers, businesses, and industry are preparing for more doubt as the likelihood of a global slowdown has increased.
The government of Chinese President Xi Jinping has consistently vowed to engage in dialogue but warned that if necessary, it may “fight to the close.”
What tools does Beijing have to fight US President Donald Trump’s taxes, let’s take a look.
Getty ImagesBecause China is the second-largest economy in the world, it is better deal with the effects of the taxes than other smaller nations.
With more than a billion individuals, it also has a sizable local industry, which might relieve producers who are struggling with taxes.
Because Chinese citizens aren’t spending enough, Beijing is also fumbling with the codes. However, with a variety of opportunities, such as subsidies for home appliances and” silver trains” for traveling taxpayers, that may change.
And Trump’s tariffs have given the Chinese Communist Party an yet stronger push to access the nation’s consumer possible.
The command does “very also be prepared to bear the pain to prevent capitulating to what they perceive to be US aggression,” Mary Lovely, a Peterson Institute in Washington DC, told BBC Newshour earlier this month.
China has a higher level for suffering as an authoritarian government because it is less concerned with short-term public opinion. There is no vote scheduled to decide its rulers right now.
Turmoil is still a priority, especially given that there is now unease over an ongoing housing problems and job losses.
For younger people who have only ever witnessed a rising China, the taxes ‘ economic uncertainty is yet another blow.
State media has urged people to “weather storms up,” while the Party has been making appeal to patriotic sentiments to support its retaliatory tariffs.
Although Xi Jinping may be concerned, Beijing has maintained a confident and resolute tone thus far. The clouds won’t fall, according to a government official.
Getty ImagesChina has always been regarded as the country’s stock, but it has invested billions to advance.
It has been in a competition for it dominance with the US under Xi.
It has heavily invested in local technology, from bits to AI to renewable energy.
Examples include the chatbot DeepSeek, which was praised as a formidable rival to ChatGPT, and BYD, which defeated Tesla last year to become the world’s largest electric vehicle ( EV ) maker. Apple has been losing market share to regional rivals like Huawei and Vivo, who have traditionally been its customers.
Beijing recently announced plans to invest more than$ 1 billion over the next ten years to promote AI innovation.
US businesses have tried to relocate their supply chains away from China, but they have found it difficult to find the same level of skilled labor and equipment abroad.
Chinese manufacturers have given the nation a decades-long benefits that may take time to simulate at every level of the supply chain.
Beijing has been preparing for this trade conflict in some ways since Trump’s past word, thanks to its unmatched supply chain skills and state aid.
Getty ImagesBeijing has stepped up its plans for a potential beyond a US-led world attempt since Trump levies hit Chinese solar panel again in 2018.
To strengthen ties with the so-called International South, it has invested billions in a controversial business and network program known as the Belt and Road initiative.
China is trying to extricate itself from the US as a result of the expansion of trade with South East Asia, Latin America, and Africa.
American farmers used to import 40 % of China’s soybeans, but that percentage now hovers at 20 %. Beijing stepped up soybean production at home after the last trade war and purchased record amounts of the crop from Brazil, the country’s top soybean supplier.
The technique kills two birds with one stone. According to Marina Yue Zhang, associate professor at the University of Technology Sydney’s Australia-China Relations Institute, it deprives America’s land belt of a once-captive industry and burnishes China’s reputation for food safety.
The US no longer holds the top position for exports in China; it now belongs in South East Asia. In reality, China was the world’s largest trading partner in 2023, almost twice as many as the US. It was the biggest exporter in the world at the end of 2024, recording a document surplus of$ 1tn.
That doesn’t imply that China needs to trade with the US, the largest economy in the world, in a meaningful way. However, it does indicate that Washington’s decision to support China into a part won’t remain simple.
Beijing has warned nations against reaching a deal at the cost of China’s interests following reports that the White House may use bilateral trade negotiations to remove China.
For the majority of the planet, that would be a difficult decision.
Tengku Zafrul Aziz, Malaysia’s commerce secretary, told the BBC last month,” We can’t decide, and we will never choose between China and the US.”
Getty ImagesTrump remained steady as stocks fell precipitously in the wake of his abrupt tariff statement in early April, referring to his remarkable levies as “medicine.”
He made a U-turn, though, by suspending the majority of those taxes for 90 days following a sharp decline in US state bonds. Treasuries, also known as Treasuries, have long been regarded as a secure funding. However, trust in the property has been shattered by the business war.
Trump has since suggested that trade hostilities with China may be easing, claiming that there will be significant reductions in tariffs on Chinese products.
Therefore, as authorities claim, Beijing now realizes that Trump may be spooked by the bond market.
US federal bonds totaling$ 700 billion are even held by China. The sole non-US alliance to possess more than that is Japan, a steadfast supporter of the United States.
Some claim that this gives Beijing more influence: Chinese media has frequently criticized the practice of selling or withholding payments of US bonds as a “weapon.”
However, researchers caution against assuming that China will not be completely destroyed by this circumstance.
Instead, it may cause significant losses for Beijing’s assets in the bond market and destabilize the Taiwanese yuan.
China will only be allowed to “only exercise stress” on US government bonds, according to Dr. Zhang. ” China has a bargaining chip, hardly a fiscal tool,” he said.
Getty ImagesNevertheless, China has a nearly monopoly over what it can weaponize: the extraction and refinement of rare earths, a range of components crucial to innovative tech manufacturing.
China has a lot of these in its tidal deposits, including Yttrium, which provides heat-resistant surface for jet engines, and dysprosium, which is used in magnet in electric cars and wind turbines.
Beijing has previously reacted to Trump’s most recent taxes by limiting exports of some of the rare earths needed for the production of AI cards.
According to estimates from the International Energy Agency ( IEA ), China accounts for about 61 % of rare earths ‘ production and 92 % of their refining.
While Australia, Japan, and Vietnam have begun to mine unique planets, it will take decades before China may leave the supply chain.
China prohibited the trade of another important material, antimony, in 2024, which is essential to various manufacturing processes. In response to a wave of panic buying and a search for alternative suppliers, its value more than doubled.
The rare earths market, which is feared, could experience the same kind of disruption, seriously affecting everything from defense to electric cars.
According to Thomas Kruemmer, chairman of Ginger International Trade and Investment, “everything you can move on or off good works on unusual rocks.”
” The effect will be significant for the US defense business.”
AFPThe deadliest violent assault in Kashmir since 2019 is the violence that occurred on Tuesday in Pahalgam, where at least 26 travellers were killed in a slew of gunshots.
The subjects were citizens taking vacations in one of India’s most lovely hills, not men or officials. This strike is both terrible and metaphorical, an intentional assault on a delicate sense of normalcy that the American state has worked hard to task in the disputed area.
According to experts, India’s answer is likely to be shaped as much by law as by force given the complex history of Kashmir, which is claimed in total by both India and Pakistan but only partially governed by both.
Delhi has also quickly taken a number of retaliatory measures, including closing the key border crossing, suspending a crucial water-sharing agreement, and expelling officials.
Significantly, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh has pledged to take actions against both the perpetrators and the schemers responsible for the “nefarious functions” committed on American soil.
The question is not whether there will be a defense response, say experts, but when, how well-equipped will it be, and how much will it cost.
We are likely to notice a robust response, one that shows Pakistan’s actors and local audiences that they are united. According to military historian Srinath Raghavan, the boundary for retribution has been set at cross-border or air strikes since 2016 and especially after 2019, according to the BBC.
The state will have to be difficult to act below that right then. Pakistan will most likely listen, just as it did previously. The danger is, as always, misunderstanding on both edges. “
Mr. Raghavan makes reference to two other significant reprisals by India in 2016 and 2019.
India launched what it called” surgical strikes” across the de facto border, also known as the Line of Control ( LoC), after the deadly Uri attack in September 2016 that claimed 19 Indian soldiers were killed, targeting what it claimed were militant launch pads in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
India launched its first attacks deep inside Pakistan since 1971 after at least 40 military staff were killed in Pulwama in 2019. Pakistan conducted airstrikes, which resulted in a battle, and the arrest of a short-lived Indian aircraft. Although neither side displayed any force, the other avoided a full-fledged conflict.
Two years later, in 2021, they reached an agreement to an LoC peace, which has generally been followed despite repeated violent attacks in Indian-administered Kashmir.
A senior international policy analyst, Michael Kugelman, believes that the recent attack’s combination of high fatalities and the targeting of American civilians” suggests a strong chance of an American defense response against Pakistan, if Delhi determines or simply assumes any level of Muslim complicity.”
The main benefit of a response for India may be democratic, he said, adding that there would be intense public pressure to do so.
” Restoring punishment and degrading an anti-India danger would be another advantages,” he said. The drawback is that a retaliation would run the risk of a significant problems and even issue. “
What are India’s choices?
According to Christopher Clary of the University at Albany in the US, coercive behavior offers deniability but may not fulfill the social need to clearly restore punishment.
He points out that that this leaves India with two probable lines.
First of all, the 2021 LoC peace has been strained, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi might permit a gain to cross-border shooting.
Similar to what happened in the air skirmishes that followed, airstrikes or even regular cruise missile attacks, like in 2019, are also on the table, each of which are susceptible to a hostile spiral.
No way is risk-free. According to Mr. Clary, who studies the politicians of South Asia,” the US is distracted and may not be willing or able to help with crises management.”
One of the biggest challenges in any India-Pakistan conflict is that neither side is nuclear-armed. Every choice is shaped by that point, which affects both political calculations and military strategy.
Nuclear weapons” a both a threat and a caution,” as they force decision-makers on both sides to work with prudence. Any answer is likely to be brief and specific. According to Mr. Raghavan, Pakistan may fight in kind and then seek an off-ramp.
This structure has been observed in various conflicts, such as Israel-Iran-caliber strikes that were followed by de-escalation efforts. However, there is always the possibility that things won’t always go according to plan. “
Images courtesy of GettyAccording to Mr. Kugelman, “each state is secure using limited register retaliation.” One of the lessons of the Pulwama problems is, according to Mr. Kugelman, “is the lack of retaliation.
India will have to consider the potential for a significant problems or conflict against the social and military benefits of retaliation. “
Former Pakistani embassy to the US Hussain Haqqani thinks escalation is possible this day, with India likely to consider a few” medical attacks” except in 2016.
According to Mr. Haqqani, a senior colleague at Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy and Hudson Institute,” these cuts demonstrate to the American people that India has acted,” given that they are limited in scope and that Pakistan does not have to answer.
However, Pakistan, which claims that it is being blamed for the strikes in a knee-jerk effect without any analysis or proof, may also be a target. “
Whichever path India chooses, and how Pakistan reacts, is full of danger. The delicate peace in Kashmir dries up even more as a result of the threat of an increase.
India has also take responsibility for the safety problems that caused the initial assault. The fact that this attack took place during the busiest time of year, according to Mr. Raghavan, “points to a critical error, particularly in a Union Territory where the federal government has direct control over law and order.” “
The Trump administration’s efforts to start peace deals between Ukraine and Russia have been hampered by Volodymyr Zelensky. Only after Vladimir Putin announced he was willing to talk to Zelensky in a significant change from Russian plan, Zelensky himself rejected the offer that US diplomats had made.
When Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top representative for international affairs and security policy, declared that the EU did not understand Crimea as Russian, the Trump team acted with some Europeans ‘ cooperation but not the EU.
The policy’s fundamentals have been covered extensively in the planning press, despite the policy’s information remaining confidential. The de jure acknowledgment of Crimea as being Russian and the de facto understanding of Russian territorial claims in the Donbass and abroad are the two major regional characteristics.
A country being recognized as de law means it is recognized as a legitimate right. De facto does not imply any rights, but it is just stated proviso and could be altered.
The Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts have been annexed by Russia. An operational department or region’s borders were originally established under Russian control. Russia currently controls 70 % of the annexations it has annexed.
It’s unclear whether Russia may consent to a de facto arrangement of the four oblasts, which leaves some of them under Russian control. No way is it certain whether a de facto agreement would avoid the war from rekindling in the future.
The Trump administration’s plan has no known features. The issues include how to secure a temporary or permanent settlement of the conflict, the role of outside parties ( such as the Ukrainian military and the power of European countries on Ukrainian soil ), the disposition of significant assets ( minerals and power plants ), and of course keeping Ukraine out of NATO.
Ending sanctions ( which most likely includes returning seized Russian assets ), is one of the veggies the US is waving in front of Russia. Because of the sanctions ‘ impact on the international banking system, the supply of energy to Russia’s previous clients, and how business will become regulated on the Black Sea, the US cannot formally do this.
If Zelensky didn’t engage, which is currently the case, nothing of this might be significant. Zelensky is attempting to sink any deal with the United States, but is he trying to get more concessions from them? This is the backdrop issue. He most likely intends to do both.
Zelensky’s unwillingness to cooperate with Crimea has caused a stir in the US administration and among the Europeans who were hoping for a partnership. That was the justification for holding a high level meeting of international officials in London.
The meeting has now been significantly downgraded, and it will likely turn out to be a contentious and pointless training. The US is sending Public Keith Kellogg, who is arriving without any particular authority, instead of Secretary of State Rubio or even Steve Witkoff. In addition, Witcoff will become visiting Moscow after this week to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin for a second time.
The Witkoff and Putin’s goals are unknown, especially in light of Zelensky’s scuttling behavior. The Trump administration may want to avoid Russian military action in Ukraine by buying period, according to sensible speculation. President Trump repeatedly makes that point to both parties and to others because he is particularly vulnerable about the individual prices of the battle.
Making purchases may include information about easing some restrictions or completing some business deals to appease the Russians. Such arrangements do likewise alert Zelensky to the US’s intentions to pursue further cooperation with Russia.
Greater participation in space, particularly between SpaceX and Roscosmos, is a good indicator of what kind of agreements might be made. A Belarusian state company is in charge of aircraft research, cosmonautics plans, and space flights.
Elon Musk’s accomplishments with SpaceX have been praised by the Russian press, and Starlink-related technology cooperation is definitely on the cards. Starlink, which is deployed in Ukraine and provides the Ukrainians with excellent conversation communication in the midst of the conflict, has been a concern for Russia. Putin may enjoy a significant victory if Putin cooperated on Starlink. It’s unfamiliar whether Trump or Witkoff will become willing to take that path.
Some experts believe that Russia’s goal is to take Odesa, particularly former NATO chief General Wesley K. Clark. This would indicate Russia’s victory in the Ukraine conflict, Clark claims. One would assume that the Trump presidency would like to stop this if necessary.
Senior correspondent for Asia Times Stephen Bryen previously held positions as assistant undersecretaries of defense for policy and staff director of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee. This article was initially published on his Weapons and Strategy Substack, and it is republished with authority.
