‘Less for less’ could mean win-win in US-Iran talks

Last month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken demurred about the status of indirect talks with Iran as he worked to deflect political pressures over contact with the regime regarding its nuclear activities and, reportedly, a possible release of wrongfully detained Iranian-Americans.

President Joe Biden’s administration has not denied that two senior diplomatic experts on the Middle East, Special Envoy Brett McGurk and Special Iran Envoy Rob Malley, have been in Oman conducting some form of indirect talks with Iranian officials, but Blinken made clear that there is no imminent agreement of any kind.

Nonetheless, critics in the US Congress are demanding more transparency, and are poised to take measures to constrain what may be a fragile and early-stage diplomatic initiative.

Progress by the Biden team may also have been hampered after it was announced late last month that Malley had been placed on unpaid leave while his security clearance was reviewed. Reports say the Federal Bureau of Investigation is examining the matter.

Analysis of these potentially significant talks with Iran is heavy on speculation, and light on facts. The administration does not seem willing or able to share any details of the putative talks, perhaps because they have not really produced any results, or, conversely, because officials are still hopeful and want to protect the process until both parties are ready to talk about it in public.  

The Biden administration has demonstrated in multiple ways that diplomacy is vital to its worldview and its idea of statecraft. Diplomacy is not just scripted meetings in friendly capitals with like-minded officials, but it’s the hard slog of finding ways to reduce tensions and prevent open conflict with adversaries. Sometimes it’s many weeks or months before even a common vocabulary is established. 

Doing diplomacy with Iran has been fraught for many decades. But it’s as hard in 2023 as it has been since the 1979 revolution and the severing of official relations. Often the parties misread what is motivating the other party, and whenever one side thinks it has the advantage, it overplays its hand and the momentum is lost. So a slow and discreet approach may be prudent. 

The previous administration’s bellicose approach – “maximum pressure” – moved the starting gate back for the Biden team in several ways.

Nuclear deal pullout

Strategically, the decision by Donald Trump to withdraw from the multilateral nuclear agreement signed in 2015 – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – did nothing to advance the goal of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons capabilities. To the contrary, the undermining of internationally negotiated constraints on Iran emboldened the country and made the task of restoring limits considerably harder.

Trump’s aggressive rhetoric only agitated the regional dynamics without sustaining US deterrence, and likely contributed to Iran’s expanding ties with Russia and China. Last week, Iran became a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Eurasian security and political bloc that could become a NATO of the East.

So the posturing of Iran hawks in the US about how the Trump approach led to Iran’s economic desperation and political isolation is simply not borne out by the facts. 

Using a quiet, reserved approach, the Biden team apparently did not give up on restarting a process to restore at least part of the JCPOA. They adopted a “less for less” strategy, rather than the overly ambitious and unrealistic goal to expand and strengthen the JCPOA.

Some movement in Iran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in March may have also spurred the idea along, to probe via Oman or other trusted intermediaries whether Iran was open to talks. 

The tentative rapprochement between Iran and Gulf Arab states also helped Washington calculate the risks of such a diplomatic overture, given that after the JCPOA was signed in 2015, both Israel and Gulf countries felt betrayed by the deal and chastised the US.

This time, with Saudi Arabia and Iran agreeing in March to restore relations after talks brokered by China, one could anticipate less resistance from key Arab partners. Fierce opposition from Israel and Republicans in the US Congress was, however, to be expected.

According to some reports, the outlines of the US initiative include Iran’s commitment to cap its uranium-enrichment activities short of full weapons-grade levels, to cooperate with the IAEA, and to release at least three dual-national Iranian-Americans currently in Iran’s prisons. In exchange, Iran would be given partial sanctions relief in the form of access to funds in South Korean banks.

In late June, some Middle East watchers judged that the talks had stalled, possibly over the terms of the release of prisoners.  

If true, this “less for less” is more modest than what Ali Vaez and Vali Nasr recently argued in Foreign Affairs. They saw a bigger opportunity to reshape Iran’s regional role, by engaging all the states in the region, by reducing Iran’s destabilizing support for cross-border militias, and by imposing region-wide limits on nuclear enrichment activities.

Their approach is closer to the “grand bargain” that some have advocated over the years: Put all the issues on the table and see if there’s a radically different way for Iran, its neighbors, and Western powers to manage their relations and promote regional stability.  

Nonetheless, the purported Biden approach does entail taking on more than one issue, in a package understanding or arrangement, to use the careful vocabulary of US officials.

previously argued that the efforts to free wrongfully detained US citizens is premised on keeping that track free of entanglement with other contentious issues. In this case, perhaps the logic was turned on its head.

To be sure, there’s no perfect rulebook for diplomats. They have to test and probe what might work, what each party cares most about, and how to get to a win-win outcome. Whether that is a possible or likely scenario for 2023 is anyone’s guess.

This article was provided by Syndication Bureau, which holds copyright.

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Malaysia state polls: Will Penang remain a Pakatan Harapan stronghold?

A high voter turnout of at least 70 per cent is crucial, said Mr Zairil, adding that Penang has done well economically.

There are more than 1.2 million registered voters in Penang. Many are working outstation and overseas.

But the opposition coalition PN has claimed it is ahead of PH in its social media campaign and as a result, could read the pulse of young voters better.
 
Opposition MP Muhammad Fawwaz Mohamad Jan from Islamic party PAS said many first-time voters in Penang are not chasing material wealth, adding that “a big surprise is coming in this state election”. 

Mr Fawwaz was hailed as a rural legend among some village folks in the mainland of Penang after defeating Ms Nurul Izzah Anwar, daughter of Mr Anwar, to wrest control of his stronghold of Permatang Pauh.

“We were the underdogs,” said Mr Fawwaz. “I was shocked when I won because this is the stronghold of (Mr Anwar’s party) PKR (Parti Keadilan Rakyat).”

Mr Anwar blamed the defeat on the opposition’s religious and racial-centric political narratives. 

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China and the Chinese mafias overseas: quid pro quo

This article was originally published by ProPublica, a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom.

PRATO, Italy – On a rainy June afternoon, six Chinese mobsters hurried across the plaza of a drab apartment complex near the medieval gates of this Tuscan textile capital. Their targets, two gang rivals in their early 20s, were eating in a small Chinese diner.

Drawing machetes, the attackers stormed in. They hacked one man to death, splattering tables and walls with gore. The second victim fought his way out. Trailing blood in the rain, he staggered through the plaza pursued by his killers, who finished him off on the sidewalk around the corner.

The slaughter on Via Strozzi in 2010 was part of a startling escalation of mob violence in Prato, which has one of Europe’s biggest Chinese immigrant communities. The ensuing police investigation was long and difficult, leading as far as China. For the first time, Italian police mapped the rapid spread of the Chinese mafias that were terrorizing immigrant enclaves and leaving a trail of casualties across Europe.

As the investigation culminated in 2017, detectives made another ominous discovery: The kingpins in Italy had high-placed friends in Beijing. Telephone intercepts detected a meeting between an accused crime boss in Rome, Zhang Naizhong, and a member of a high-level Chinese government delegation on a diplomatic visit to Italy, senior Italian law enforcement officials say.

“A guy like Zhang does what the consulate doesn’t do, or does it better,” a senior Italian national security official said. “If you want in-depth street information, intelligence, you go to a guy like Zhang. He has a network, power, resources. He knows the diaspora. He is feared and respected.”

As the regime of President Xi Jinping expands its international power, it has intensified its alliance with Chinese organized crime overseas. The Italian investigation and other cases in Europe show the underworld’s front-line role in a campaign to infiltrate the West, amass wealth and influence, and control diaspora communities as if they were colonies of Beijing’s police state.

Around the world, China’s shadow war of espionage, long-distance repression, political interference and predatory capitalism is drawing attention and alarm. Governments and human rights groups have denounced in recent months a global network of covert Chinese police stations that spy on Chinese migrant communities and persecute dissidents — wherever they live.

As ProPublica has reported, the Chinese state has sent illegal undercover teams to chase down fugitives in wealthy US suburbs, surveilled and silenced Chinese students on foreign campuses, and allegedly supported the Chinese money laundering underworld that fortifies cartels inundating the Americas with deadly drugs.

But the rise of Chinese organized crime in Europe has caught authorities largely off-guard. An examination of it offers an unusually vivid look at a covert alliance in action. ProPublica has documented a pattern of cases, some of them unreported and others little-noticed internationally, in which suspected underworld figures in Europe have teamed up with Chinese security forces and other state entities.

The partnership appears to mix geopolitics and corruption for mutual benefit. Gangsters help monitor and intimidate immigrant communities for the regime in Beijing, sometimes as leaders of cultural associations that are key players in China’s political influence operations and long-distance repression, Western security officials say.

ProPublica has learned that suspected underworld figures in Italy and Spain took part in launching several of the secret Chinese police stations that caused an uproar when their existence became public last year.

The Chinese Communist Party “takes the most powerful, richest, most successful figures overseas and recognizes them as the nobility of the diaspora,” said Emmanuel Jourda, a French scholar on Chinese organized crime. “And it doesn’t matter how they made their money. The deal, spoken or not, is: ‘You gather intelligence on the community, we let you do business. Whether legal or illegal.’”

In exchange for their services as overseas enforcers and agents of influence, the Chinese state protects the mobsters, Western national security officials say. Although supposedly wanted in China, a top figure in the Italian case traveled freely to his homeland and oversaw his European rackets from China without interference from authorities there, according to court documents and law enforcement officials.

And in Europe — as in the United States — national security chiefs say the Chinese government refuses to cooperate with their investigations of Chinese organized crime.

Money is another driving force in the alliance. Diplomatically delicate prosecutions in Italy, Spain and France have resulted in convictions and fines against Chinese state banks that worked with Chinese criminals to launder the proceeds of widespread tax evasion, customs fraud and contraband.

Chinese mafias have also become the preferred money launderers for the Continent’s drug traffickers, whose onslaught poses an unprecedented threat to several governments.

Stretching across Europe, the underground Chinese money networks pump billions of illicit dollars into China’s economy. During one recent year, police at Rome’s Fiumicino Airport arrested 16 couriers carrying a total of more than $41 million bound for China.

“It is hard to imagine that this activity is not welcomed by the Chinese authorities,” said the chief prosecutor in Prato, Giuseppe Nicolosi. “Large amounts of money are returning to China.”

The implications for the United States are urgent, authorities say, because the same tactics and networks plague Chinese American communities. US law enforcement has tracked interactions between Chinese government operatives and Chinese American mobsters who harass dissidents, engage in political interference and move offshore funds for the Communist Party elite, US national security officials say.

“Organized crime is doing services for the Chinese government” on both sides of the Atlantic, a veteran US national security official said. “There are deals between organized crime and the Chinese government. The government tasks them to expand influence and become eyes and ears overseas. Once they get themselves established, there are locals they can corrupt. It’s a classic modus operandi.”

US national security officials are also concerned because Europe is a vulnerable front in China’s offensive to divide and weaken the West.

Until recently, Chinese malign activities were not a priority in Europe. Although US intelligence agencies warned European counterparts about intensified contacts between the Chinese state and underworld, most security forces were busy with Islamist terrorists and Russian spies during the past decade, Western national security veterans said.

“When they started recognizing the threat, they didn’t have the resources,” said Frank Montoya, a former FBI counterintelligence chief.

Today, governments are scrambling to respond to what Europol, the agency that coordinates police cooperation on the Continent, has called “an increasing threat to Europe.” They have realized that the problem reverberates beyond Chinese immigrant neighborhoods and challenges national security and the rule of law.

“There was a lack of awareness of the danger,” said the chief anti-mafia prosecutor in Florence, Luca Tescaroli, whose jurisdiction includes Prato. He has created a unit to fight Chinese mafias. But, he said: “We cannot criminalize the Chinese community. We know they are also victims of intimidation, extortion and violence.”

The Chinese embassies in Italy, Spain and France did not respond to requests for comment from ProPublica. In the past, Chinese diplomats have denied involvement in transnational repression and other illegal activities abroad.

To assemble a picture of the intertwined agendas of the Chinese regime and its expatriate mafia groups, ProPublica interviewed more than two dozen current and former national security officials in Europe and the United States, as well as Chinese immigrants, human rights advocates and others. ProPublica granted anonymity to some sources because of safety concerns or because they were not authorized to speak publicly. In addition, ProPublica reviewed court documents, reports by governments and nongovernmental organizations, academic papers, press reports and social media posts.

The Boss from Beijing

Prato’s Chinatown starts just outside the stone ramparts, narrow lanes and Romanesque cathedral of the city’s historic center. Its immigrant energy extends to the Macrolotto industrial park on the edge of town, where signs on warehouses and workshops mix Chinese words with names like Flora, Kitty and Style.

More than 6,000 Chinese-owned businesses give Prato an outsized role in the diaspora. Numbers like that tell the story of the second-biggest city in Tuscany.

In 1990, there were 520 residents of Chinese origin, according to an Italian government study. Today, officials say Prato has one of the largest Chinese communities in proportion to the city’s size in Europe: close to 40,000 out of a total population of about 200,000. That includes as many as 10,000 undocumented immigrants. Italy has Europe’s third-largest Chinese population after the United Kingdom and France.

The immigrants came initially to work in the mills and factories of this longtime hub of the textile and garment industries. Gradually, they became owners and employers. In 2019, voters elected two Chinese Italians to the City Council — a first.

Still, life for many Chinese residents feels like a crossfire. Although the newcomers have invigorated the economy, some Italians accuse Chinese merchants of evading taxes, paying low wages and other shady practices. Non-Chinese robbers and thieves prey on them because of the belief that they carry large amounts of cash.

And Chinese immigrants, of course, were the prime victims of the rise of Chinese organized crime in the 2000s. As mobsters established themselves, unprecedented violence broke out among warring factions from Fujian, a coastal province known for smuggling and migration. Police in Prato started calling Fujian the Calabria of China, likening it to the mafia hotbed located in the toe of the Italian boot.

After the double murder on Via Strozzi in 2010, the half-dozen detectives of the local anti-mafia squad began an investigation christened China Truck. Despite the daunting language barrier and a lack of expertise on Asian mafias, it evolved into an all-out, eight-year effort to dismantle a criminal organization.

In 2011, witnesses told police about Lin Guochun, aka Laolin, the reputed boss of Prato, court documents say. Lin had made his way from Fujian to Italy via Portugal and the Czech Republic, where he had allegedly ordered the murder of a rival smuggler of migrants, according to Italian court documents and Italian law enforcement officials.

Lin’s empire encompassed extortion, gambling, contraband, prostitution and drugs. In Prato, he held court in his nightclub, a grim property with dark glass walls that offered package deals of prostitutes and ketamine. His swaggering crew ruled Chinatown, court documents say.

In 2013, the father of a massage parlor owner told prosecutors that two of Lin’s thugs had demanded 100,000 euros and given him a beating that put him in the hospital with skull trauma and a broken nose, court documents say.

“My countrymen are afraid of them,” the battered extortion victim said, according to court documents. “They are part of an organization of cruel people who threaten and demand money…. If someone challenges them, they beat and wound and use other violent methods.”

Zhang Naizhong. Photo: Gangsters Inc

Surveillance led to another breakthrough even higher in the criminal hierarchy. Police identified the alleged boss of bosses in Rome: Zhang Naizhong.

Zhang, a trim and dapper trucking executive, was from Zhejiang, a more prosperous province next to Fujian that sends many immigrants to Europe. After the slaying of one of Zhang’s rivals in Naples in 2006, a court convicted him of helping the accused killers escape, but appellate judges overturned the verdict, court documents say.

During conversations intercepted on the phone and in his BMW, Zhang described himself as a ruthless “madman” and ordered henchmen to threaten people, court documents say. Expounding on the “rules of the mafia,” he told a subordinate in 2013 that true loyalty meant being “ready to go to prison and to kill people,” court documents say.

“I’m the most powerful boss in Europe,” Zhang declared, according to court documents. “Ask anyone … if you’re not a friend, you’re an enemy … if you’re an enemy, then you’re finished! … A guy can point a pistol at me and because of my personality … I’ll tell him: ‘Pull the trigger!’ You understand, brother? … I am the boss and so the boss can decide anything.”

Zhang teamed with Lin to conquer the market for the distribution of goods among Chinese business enclaves in Europe, court documents say. Working with police in other countries, Italian detectives charted the kingpins’ alleged war on competing transport companies, court documents say: murders in Italy; shootings and stabbings in Spain, France, Germany and Portugal; a litany of arson attacks, assaults and threats.

Back in Prato, though, the accused gangsters did not keep a low profile. In fact, some of them were active in the array of Chinese cultural associations that shape the social landscape in diaspora communities. The associations, often named for the province immigrants came from, do good works: sponsoring cultural and sports activities, distributing protective equipment during the pandemic, raising money for charity causes in their home provinces.

But suspected underworld figures and their associates held posts in the Fujian Overseas Chinese Association in Italy that enhanced their power on the street and at a political level, according to court documents, Italian law enforcement officials and Chinese media. Lin, the alleged Fujianese boss of Prato, appeared on a list of “consultants” to the association in 2016.

Wiretaps, surveillance cameras and media reports documented meals, events and phone conversations in which Lin and other targets in the China Truck case interacted with prominent leaders of the Chinese community, Italian politicians, Chinese diplomats and visiting Chinese government officials.

In 2012, the president of the Fujian association in Prato intervened to resolve an underworld conflict involving Lin’s son, according to court documents and law enforcement officials.

That same leader of the association later attended a conference in Beijing with top officials of the United Front Work Department, the arm of the Chinese Communist Party dedicated to political spying and interference overseas, according to photos and media reports. The United Front has become a dominant force in the diaspora, which it exploits to gain political and economic influence.

Such well-placed homeland connections appeared to pay off. Although Lin was wanted by Chinese police for past extortion offenses in China, he spent long periods there unmolested by authorities while he supervised his criminal enterprises in Italy by phone, according to Italian court documents and senior Italian law enforcement officials.

He also enriched himself with investments in the Chinese mining sector, court documents and senior Italian law enforcement officials say. Lin “succeeded in resolving the judicial cases in which he was charged, and was thus able to resume thriving economic activities” in China, a court document says.

As the investigation peaked in late 2017, detectives stumbled onto startling evidence of Lin’s influence in high places. In interviews with ProPublica, Italian law enforcement officials said a series of intercepted phone calls revealed how close the Prato mob chief was to Chinese political figures.

According to the Italian officials, on the morning of December 11, 2017, Lin placed a call from Beijing to Zhang in Rome. Lin said an important friend, whom he described as a “boss from Beijing,” was visiting Rome. The boss had a busy schedule of meetings with Italian politicians, Lin said. But it would be good if Zhang could take him to dinner, see the sights, maybe a soccer game.

Zhang then called his secretary and driver to organize excursions to the Vatican and the Colosseum for the VIP visitor. That evening, Zhang had dinner with him, Italian officials said.

Analyzing translations of the calls afterward, detectives came to an alarming conclusion: The “boss from Beijing” was a member of a Chinese delegation that had met with Italy’s prime minister at the time, Paolo Gentiloni, and his cabinet ministers. Led by China’s Vice Premier Ma Kai, the delegation included senior officials in China’s ministries of foreign affairs, development, industry and commerce.

“It’s very probable that Zhang hosted and dined with a senior official from the delegation,” a senior Italian law enforcement official said. “We suspect that it was a prominent member of the delegation.”

Police reconstructed the episode based on the translated conversations rather than physical surveillance, law enforcement officials told ProPublica, and could not identify the visitor or the reason for the sit-down. But the analysis indicated he was a government official, national security sources said.

Italian and Chinese diplomats declined to comment on the episode, which was first reported in Italian media. Chinese state-mafia contacts like the one that allegedly took place in Rome are not unusual, Western national security officials said.

“China uses a range of proxies and cutouts, and organized crime is one of those proxies,” a US intelligence official said. “We see a growing brazenness in [Chinese] malign influence operations.”

Sometimes, expatriate gangsters even set themselves up in foreign countries with the blessing and support of corrupt allies in the Communist Party elite back home, a veteran US national security official said.

“The gangsters are told to go establish themselves in a certain country, given different business opportunities,” the veteran US national security official said. “Transportation help, getting consumer goods out of China, the government helps organized crime there. Chinese corrupt officials can make it easy to move goods out of China.”

The Chinese politicians who meet with Chinese gangsters overseas “represent their government as well as their own self-interest,” he said.

Weeks after the mysterious encounter in Rome, Italian investigators rounded up dozens of suspects on mafia-related charges resulting from the China Truck investigation.

Italian police conduct raids against Chinese organized crime in Prato, Italy, during the operation known as China Truck in 2018. Photo: Screenshot / YouTube

A police team swarmed a discreet hotel in Prato where Zhang was staying and arrested him and his adult son, Zhang Di, rousting them from their beds at dawn. The son got agitated and shouted at the officers, police said. But his father, the accused boss of bosses, stayed cool while officers took him into custody.

Zhang and his son have pleaded not guilty. Their lawyers did not respond to requests for comment. Prosecutors also charged Lin, but he remains at large. Lin’s son was not charged.

The China Truck prosecution painted the first detailed picture of alleged mob activity among Chinese immigrants in Italy. Soon, even more evidence would emerge of a brazen alliance between accused expatriate gangsters and the Chinese security forces.

Outlaw police

The headquarters of the Fujian Overseas Chinese Association in Italy occupies a corner building on Via Orti del Pero in the heart of Prato’s Chinatown. The two-story structure looks bedraggled. It has blue steel doors, barred windows and fading sand-colored walls.

But in March of last year, the place made headlines. Chinese media announced “good news” from Prato: the inauguration of the Fuzhou Police Overseas Service Station in the Fujian association’s headquarters. Leaders of the association would work with officers of the Municipal Public Security Bureau in Fuzhou, the capital of Fujian province, to enable immigrants to renew Chinese driver’s licenses and do other bureaucratic tasks in Prato, a Chinese media report said.

Among six community leaders pictured beneath the station’s blue banner was the association’s executive vice president at the time: Zheng Wenhua.

Zheng, also known as Franco, seemed a puzzling choice to open a police station. Four years earlier, Italian authorities had accused him of being a top figure in the Prato underworld.

Investigators first identified him in 2011 when police stopped him. He was in his Jaguar accompanied by an alleged enforcer for Lin, the reputed Fujianese mob boss, court documents say. Officers found a clasp knife and a marijuana cigarette in the car and confiscated Zheng’s license, court documents say.

In 2013, Zheng allegedly became involved in the aftermath of the incident in which two thugs beat up the father of a massage parlor owner. Zheng tried to silence the battered extortion victim by sending a “volunteer” interpreter into a police interview to control what he said, court documents say. In a phone call recorded by police, Zheng warned the victim not to implicate bosses, court documents say.

“Come on … this could have consequences for Laolin…,” he said, according to the documents. “…And that would not be a good thing.”

During the China Truck raids in 2018, authorities charged Zheng with “a prominent role” in Lin’s crew overseeing the “management of clandestine gambling dens and exploitation of prostitution,” court documents say.

Yet Zheng remains a civic leader. He has met with visiting Chinese dignitaries including the mayor of Fuzhou, spoken at community events and attended a gala in February featuring the mayor of Florence and the Chinese consul, according to media reports and photos. In March, he was elected president of the Fujian association. (Zheng has pleaded not guilty and is free awaiting trial. He and other representatives of the Fujian association did not respond to requests for comment.)

And Zheng wasn’t the only one with alleged ties to both the underworld and the new Fuzhou police station in Prato. China Truck prosecutors charged another vice president of the association with helping Lin obtain fraudulent immigration papers. Photos at the Fuzhou police station show three more community leaders whose personal and business links to gangsters surfaced during the investigation, according to court documents and senior law enforcement officials. None of them were charged, though authorities seized five bank accounts belonging to one man.

Despite the celebratory Chinese media reports, the station was part of a global campaign of repression, according to Western officials and human rights advocates. “You have criminals who terrify the community involved in a police station that further terrifies the community,” a senior law enforcement official said.

Safeguard Defenders, a human rights group, has revealed a network of more than 100 covert stations overseen by Chinese provincial police forces in more than 50 countries. Based in cultural associations, businesses and homes, the outposts help persecute dissidents and support Operation Fox Hunt, which deploys undercover police and prosecutors illegally across borders to track down people accused of crimes – justifiably and not – and take them back to China, according to Western officials and human rights advocates.

In Madrid, a video showed community leaders at a covert station of the Zhejiang provincial police talking via videolink with a fugitive in Spain and law enforcement officials in Zhejiang. In a typical pressure tactic, Chinese police and prosecutors back in Qingtian County sat with a relative of the fugitive, who eventually returned home and accepted a plea deal, according to Chinese media reports cited by the human rights group.

In Aubervilliers, a gritty Paris suburb, a Chinese French garment executive who managed a station admitted in a published interview to helping Chinese police “persuade” a fugitive to return to China in 2019, Safeguard Defenders found. Although no further details about the case were available, a senior French national security official told ProPublica that undercover Chinese police came to France and illegally repatriated two people during that time. The senior official did not say whether the head of the Aubervilliers station was involved.

After Safeguard Defenders issued its report last year, at least 12 countries began investigations.

The US reaction was the strongest. Targeting an illegal station in New York, federal prosecutors charged two Chinese American leaders with stalking and harassing dissidents for Chinese authorities including the Fuzhou police – the same force involved in the Prato station. (United Front officials also helped set up the New York station, US authorities say.)

“Harry” Lu Jianwang of the Bronx and Chen Jinping of Manhattan. Photos: FBI / US Department of Justice

“It is simply outrageous that China’s Ministry of Public Security thinks it can get away with establishing a secret, illegal police station on US soil to aid its efforts to export repression and subvert our rule of law,” the acting head of FBI counterintelligence, Kurt Ronnow, said at the time of the arrests in April.

In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin accused US authorities of making “groundless” accusations. “There are simply no so-called ‘overseas police stations,’” Wang said. “China adheres to the principle of non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs, strictly observes international laws and respects the judicial sovereignty of all countries.”

The Chinese Embassy in Rome did not respond to a request for comment from ProPublica.

Some European national security officials downplayed the disclosures about the stations, echoing the Chinese government’s line that the outposts offer convenient consular-type services. The response to the problem in Europe has often been handled quietly by counterintelligence agencies rather than law enforcement. But most European officials interviewed by ProPublica said the stations aid spying.

“The suspicion is that the goal of these stations is to enable Chinese authorities to control and monitor the Chinese diaspora community,” Tescaroli, the Florence prosecutor, said.

There are 11 Chinese police outposts in Italy, more than any other country, and three in Prato. They multiplied during past Italian governments, which had notably close relationships with Beijing.

In 2016, Italy began a program that allowed visiting Chinese police officers to conduct joint uniformed patrols with Italian police. The stated goal was to improve protection of Chinese tourists and immigrants, but the patrol program fomented the spread of the unofficial stations, said Laura Harth, the campaign director of Safeguard Defenders. Photos show Chinese officers at the stations, sometimes joined by Italian police.

“They used the joint patrols to launch pilot stations,” Harth said. “China described it as one of its biggest achievements.”

Although Italian national security officials told ProPublica the patrols were largely symbolic, they said they have caught Chinese police officers using authorized visits as a cover to pursue people in the diaspora. “But when they tried to do anything more than patrol, they were warned to stop,” a senior Italian national security official said.

The policing alliance was “a bad idea” because it “reinforced the fear” in the Chinese Italian community, a senior Italian law enforcement official said.

Across the Mediterranean, Spain is another place where the secret Chinese stations allegedly converge with the criminal underworld. In Barcelona, two covert stations operate a mile apart in a translation agency and a restaurant, according to human rights activists and Spanish security officials.

The stations are based in the Eixample, a central area of tree-lined avenues, stately modernist architecture and octagonal intersections. As in Prato, the Fuzhou police administer the Barcelona facilities from afar, and the staff are mostly Fujianese members of groups including the Association of Fujianese Entrepreneurs in Catalunya, according to Spanish officials and human rights advocates.

And as in Prato, community leaders affiliated with the stations appear in the organized crime files of law enforcement, according to the police of the Catalan autonomous region, a force known as the Mossos d’Esquadra.

At least five of those community leaders have records in Spain for crimes including human smuggling, falsification of documents, receiving stolen property, labor law violations and fraud, Catalan police officials told ProPublica. Police have detected at least two of those people at meetings with suspected Chinese mob figures, the police officials said.

The leaders involved in running the stations interact frequently with Chinese diplomats as well as Spanish politicians, according to police officials. “These are people of great relevance in the Chinese community,” a police official said. “The local politicians may not always realize who they are meeting with.”

Representatives of associations and businesses tied to the Barcelona stations did not respond to requests for comment. The Chinese Embassy in Madrid also did not respond to a request for comment.

In France, authorities already knew about the Chinese stations and monitored them for intelligence purposes, a French national security official said.

After the revelations last year, French officials met with representatives of the Chinese Embassy and the Chinese community and told them to curtail the covert activities, a senior French national security official said. The senior official said a Chinese police attaché insisted he knew nothing about the matter – until French officials showed him a photo of himself at one of the stations.

China’s embassy in Paris did not respond to a request for comment.

Across Europe, investigators have discovered that the Chinese underworld makes itself useful to the Chinese state in another, crucially important arena: money.

River of money

Imagine a vast river of cash flowing from Europe to China.

It flows from the booming marijuana industry in and around Barcelona, where Chinese mobsters are players in illegal growing and international trafficking.

It flows from the garment industry in the Aubervilliers area (the site of a covert Chinese police station and the French branch of Zhang’s trucking empire), where merchants have been charged with laundering money for drug lords.

And it flows from shops, nightspots and warehouses in Prato and other Italian cities where the Guardia di Finanza, the agency that fights financial crime, has discovered a veritable underground banking system based on tax evasion, customs fraud and contraband.

This illegal machinery has pumped billions of dollars into the Chinese economy, authorities say.

Although China has the most formidable police state in the world, law enforcement chiefs in Europe complain about its steadfast resistance to helping their investigations into organized criminal activity by Chinese migrants. “We get no cooperation from the Chinese government,” said Tescaroli, the chief anti-mafia prosecutor in Florence.

Worsening suspicions of official complicity, Chinese state banks in Europe have emerged as active partners of money laundering organizations. Exhibit A: the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, a state-owned institution, the biggest bank in the world based on total assets.

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in Shanghai. Photo: Asia Times files / AFP

In 2011, ICBC opened a branch in Madrid on a thriving downtown boulevard filled with museums, luxury hotels and cafe terraces. The bank’s visiting global chairman marked the occasion with Spain’s economy minister, who said the new branch would be a bridge to emerging markets.

Five years later, a dramatic scene played out when Spanish police officers raided the bank, seized piles of documents and arrested executives, escorting suspects out with their heads covered.

The bank had surfaced during investigations of Chinese criminal groups that smuggle contraband and evade taxes and customs duties – activities that generate stockpiles of cash. Surveillance of suspects moving cash led police to the ICBC branch in Madrid.

Thanks to wiretaps and an inside witness, police learned that bank executives set up an audacious system in which criminals delivered suitcases and boxes full of euros to the bank day and night, court documents say.

The bank sent hundreds of millions to China through illegal mechanisms such as fake identities and fraudulent invoices. Managers advised crime bosses about how to transfer funds to China covertly. The Madrid branch did not issue a single alert about suspicious financial operations to Spanish authorities between 2011 and 2016, court documents say.

During the investigation, the top ICBC executive in Madrid became general manager at the bank’s European headquarters, indicating potentially wider corruption, prosecutors said. “The close connection between this Spanish branch and the headquarters in Luxembourg indicates that this illicit conduct could repeat itself in other European branches,” prosecutors warned in court documents.

Chinese diplomats complained publicly and in talks with Spanish leaders about the case, according to Spanish national security officials. But in 2020, the general manager in Luxembourg and three Madrid executives pleaded guilty to money laundering charges. The Spanish court imposed sentences of three to five months and a $25 million fine. ICBC issued a statement saying the bank was law-abiding and had cooperated with authorities.

It was not an isolated case.

In France, the Bank of China paid a $4 million fine in 2020 to settle a prosecution for aggravated money laundering. Authorities charged that the state bank failed to notify French tax authorities about more than $40 million sent from 168 accounts during a two-year period. The money came from fraud, tax evasion and other illicit activities by Chinese entrepreneurs based in France, prosecutors said. Bank of China officials said in a statement that the settlement was not an admission of guilt.

In Italy, the Bank of China paid $22 million in 2017 to settle a case in which a whopping $4.7 billion went illegally to China. Executives aided and concealed transfers of cash from Prato and Florence during a four-year period, authorities said. The former director general in Milan and three other employees received two-year suspended sentences in the aptly named “River of Money” prosecution. The bank said the settlement was not an admission of guilt.

The river of money has many tributaries, law enforcement experts say. Italian investigators have detected bulk cash loads smuggled to China in maritime containers, express mail packages and the luggage of airline passengers.

And police forces across Western Europe track couriers driving shipments of criminal proceeds east to Turkey, Bulgaria and especially Hungary, where it is easier to deposit and repatriate the funds in banks with little interference on either end, according to Italian prosecutors and other European officials. In a Spanish case, a jailed Chinese suspect told interrogators that a network smuggled cash “hidden in goods transported in vans” and used “passports of Chinese citizens to send the money as immigrant remittances” from the “Chinese Bank in Budapest, Hungary” to China, court documents say.

Italian investigators identified another bank in Hungary, China’s closest ally in Europe, that received more than $1.2 billion in clandestine cash deliveries from across the Continent and wired the money to China between 2017 and 2018.

Chinese financial crime networks pose “an elevated threat” in Europe, according to a recent French law enforcement report. They have become the preferred money launderers of the drug trade and act as brokers for international deals, delivering cash on demand so that cartels don’t have to transport funds across borders, European security officials say.

The clients are top drug traffickers: Italians, Albanians, Latin Americans and a violent Morocco-connected cartel, the Mocro Maffia, that has become a national security threat in the Netherlands and Belgium.

The trend resembles the rise of Chinese money laundering groups that have transformed the US drug trade by giving fast and cheap service to Latin American cartels. As ProPublica has reported, US national security officials say the Chinese state supports that activity.

European authorities have similar suspicions. “It is a kind of state criminality,” a senior Italian law enforcement official said.

Striking back

Five years after Italian police rounded up the accused gangsters in 2018, the continuing saga of the China Truck case illustrates progress and setbacks in the response to a threat that caught Europe largely unawares.

A total of 79 defendants are still awaiting trial in Prato. The proceedings have been slow because of the sheer scope of the case, the labyrinthine justice system and the laborious demands of translation. An acute lack of interpreters continues to plague the case. During the investigation, police at one point had to suspend wiretaps because taped conversations in the Fujianese dialect were piling up untranslated.

It is also Italy’s first prosecution of a Chinese organization for mafia-level conspiracy, which is a complex offense to prove. Appellate panels have questioned the evidence for the mafia-related charges, releasing defendants from pre-trial custody.

Last September, a court convicted some defendants for individual offenses and acquitted others such as Zhang, the alleged boss in Rome. In the case of Zheng, the community leader involved in the Prato station, the statute of limitations ran out on some charges against him. Lin is no longer facing trial because his whereabouts are unknown. But Zhang, Zheng and the others still face trial on the mafia conspiracy charges.

Although it has been an uphill battle, authorities say they have disrupted the underworld. “Like the Italian mafias, the Chinese mafia has understood, or is coming to understand, that if you are too violent, the police react,” a senior Italian law enforcement official said. “It is bad for business. Violence attracts attention. It has happened less since the China Truck prosecution.”

Europe is hurrying to respond to China-related threats. After an investigation, the United Kingdom’s minister of state security recently announced that the government had ordered China to shut down unauthorized police stations, calling them “unacceptable.”

The new Italian government of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has taken a tough line. Intelligence and law enforcement agencies have created units focused on Chinese organized crime and malign influence. A parliamentary anti-mafia commission will examine alleged wrongdoing in Prato’s Chinese manufacturing sector and illicit money flows to China. Public attention has led to the shuttering of the Fuzhou station in Prato.

As for the double homicide on Via Strozzi, the case opened a door into a secret world. Prosecutors charged 20 people in the murder and related crimes, winning convictions in the latter cases. But the accused killers remain out of reach, authorities say, in China.

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China’s June exports hit by weak Western demand

China’s exports decreased at a faster pace year-on-year in June than in May as Western demand was hit by high inflation and interest rate hikes.

The country’s exports to the United States fell by 23.7% to US$42.7 billon in June from a year ago while exports to the European Union dropped 12.9% to US$44 billion, according to the General Administration of Customs. In May, the figures were only down by 18.2% and 7% to the US and EU, respectively, from a year earlier.

Chinese officials blamed the weakening global demand, protectionism and geopolitical risks for the exports slump. But they said they are confident that China’s external trade will remain stable in the rest of this year due to the country’s efforts to explore emerging markets.

Dongguan factories

Chinese exporters have felt the negative impact of the weakening demand from the West on their orders since late 2022. Although China ended all its Covid rules in January this year, many manufacturers started downsizing or closing their businesses from March.

Media reports said several plastic and electronic parts suppliers, based in Dongguan and Shenzhen in Guangdong province, told their staff that they faced huge operational difficulties due to insufficient orders, serious losses and customers’ arrears. But this is only a tip of the iceberg.

In mid-April, Chinese manufacturers were disappointed to see a decline in the number of buyers from Europe and the US in the Canton Fair, the largest trade show in China. Some exporters said they saw more buyers from Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia and Russia but these customers may provide lower margins. 

More manufacturers in Dongguan, including a major paper box maker and a 30-year-old textile firm, closed their businesses last month, according to media reports. 

A man surnamed Zhu says in a video posted on June 25 that he’s been trying to find a factory job in Dongguan but has seen only notices that factory owners seek to rent out their properties. He says he knows that some factories are offering workers only 12-13 yuan (US$1.68-1.82) per hour, which he calls too low for anyone to live on. 

Trade with ASEAN also down

Some economists said the West’s call to diversify supply chains from China to Southeast Asia only has a small impact on China’s overall exports. They said China can ship its raw materials and unfinished products to Southeast Asian countries for processing and then send them to western markets.

But China’s exports to ASEAN also contracted – 15.9% and 16.9% – year-on-year in May and June, respectively, as Southeast Asian countries were also struck by the weakening Western demand.

Last month, China saw a decline in its exports to all key trading partners, except Russia and Singapore.

In the first half of this year, China recorded a 3.97% drop in total exports from the same period of last year. This compared with a year-on-year decline of 0.16% for the first five months of this year.

 “The world’s economic recovery is sluggish while risks such as unilateralism, protectionism and geopolitics are growing,” Lyu Daliang, the spokesman for the General Administration of Customs, said in a media briefing on Thursday. “The negative impact of the weakening foreign demand on China’s external trade is lingering.” 

However, he added that while the year-on-year growth of China’s external trade declined in June, the month-on-month growth was stable, meaning that the fundamentals of the Chinese economy are unchanged.

“In recent years, our foreign trade companies have given full play to their subjective initiative to explore new regional markets such as ASEAN and other developing countries, while stabilizing economic and trade exchanges with developed economies,” he said.

“Since the beginning of this year, our country has resumed face-to-face foreign affairs exchanges at all levels. Our ‘home-court’ diplomacy has continued to heat up,” he said. “In the first half, our country’s trade with ASEAN, Latin America, Africa and Central Asia increased by 5.4%, 7%, 10.5%, and 35.6%, year-on-year, respectively.”

Liu said China will continue to diversify its trading partners and expand its “friend circle” in global trade.

In the first four months of this year, China recorded a 15% growth in its exports to ASEAN, partly offsetting a 14.3% decline in shipments to the US and a 4.3% contraction to the EU.

Short-term outlook bleak

A Gansu-based financial columnist writes in an article published on Thursday that China’s exports started to decline in May due to the negative effect of the interest rate hikes implemented from last year. He says it’s unlikely that the unfavorable situation will change in the short run since countries such as Vietnam, South Korea and Singapore are also receiving fewer orders.

He says China should boost its economy by stimulating domestic consumption and infrastructure investment in the second half of this year. He says cutting mortgage rates may encourage people to spend more.

Peng Bo, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, says in an article published earlier this month that China will face more challenges in external trade in the second half of 2023 as its exports to emerging countries have also contracted from May. 

Peng adds that the decline of China’s exports was partly caused by the relocation of some manufacturers from China to other countries while such a trend will continue for some more time. 

Read: China needs its consumers to consume, workers to work

Follow Jeff Pao on Twitter at @jeffpao3

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EU, Japan talk cooperation on raw materials

BRUSSELS: The EU and Japan are working on a cooperation agreement for raw materials to whittle down China’s dominance in the sector, leaders said in Brussels on Thursday (Jul 13). Coordination also extended to semiconductors, to help boost economic security in Japan and the EU, European Commission chief Ursula vonContinue Reading

Thai opposition leader loses PM bid

Despite falling far short of the threshold to become Thailand’s next prime minister, opposition Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat pledged Thursday to keep up the fight.

“With the results of what happened in the parliament today, I accept it but I’m not giving up,” Pita stated in a post-vote press conference. “I’m going to strategise once again … just to make sure that we reach 376 later on.”

Despite being the leader of the largest party in the country’s parliament, the 42-year-old landed 51 votes short of the majority 375 required to win the day’s prime minister selection vote. Even with Move Forward’s electoral popularity, the outcome was less a shock, more of a bitter disappointment to the progressive party’s supporters. The decision hinged on the solid rejection by members of the military-appointed Senate, a 250-member legacy of the 2014 military coup, where some lawmakers had made no secret of their disdain for the upstart opposition.

It’s not our job to listen to the people. … Even if you got 100 million votes, I still wouldn’t pick you if I don’t like you or find you suitable.

Senator Prapanth Koonmee

“It’s not our job to listen to the people,” said Senator Prapanth Koonmee in an earlier interview with Bloomberg. “Even if you got 100 million votes, I still wouldn’t pick you if I don’t like you or find you suitable.”

Still, most senators refrained from actually voting against Pita, who was the sole candidate for the prime minister’s office. He was able to secure only 13 Senate votes in favour of his premiership, while a further 159 senators abstained from the vote. More than 40 senators failed to show up altogether.

With the failure to select a new prime minister, Thailand now enters an uncertain period of ill-defined leadership. Political observers see a range of possible roads forward – including the threat of yet another military intervention in the event that representatives fail to form a new government in a timely fashion.

During five hours of parliamentary debate preceding Thursday’s vote, both senators and members of conservative-aligned parties within the House of Representatives criticised Move Forward’s proposed amendments to the country’s lèse-majesté law, which criminalises critique of the monarchy.  

Lèse-majesté has emerged as a political flashpoint in recent years and especially during the mass mobilisations of pro-democracy protesters in 2020. A case taken up by Thailand’s Constitutional Court on Wednesday alleges the party’s promise to reform the law amounts to an attempt to overthrow the country’s system of government. 

That same day, the national Election Commission also requested the court suspend Pita as a member of parliament over criminal accusations that he’d run for office while aware he might be ineligible due to owning a small stake in a defunct media company.

Lawmakers who spoke against Pita on Thursday pointed to these cases as disqualifying factors in his bid to become prime minister. 

“The Constitutional Court’s decision to look into potential illegalities by Pita (which are trumped up) legitimised decisions by Senators to vote against him, thus dooming his chances of becoming prime minister,” said Paul Chambers, a specialist on Thai politics at Naresuan University in Thailand, in a message to Globe.

The next vote for prime minister is scheduled for 19 July, and Pita has already indicated his intention to make a second attempt at the premiership.

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Thailand: Pita’s loss is Thaksin’s gain

BANGKOK – In a largely preordained vote against the popular will, Move Forward Party (MFP) leader Pita Limjaroenrat failed today to win enough parliamentary votes to become Thailand’s next and arguably first progressive prime minister.

The military-appointed, 249-member Senate and lower house parliamentarians aligned with the outgoing conservative coalition led by coup-maker General Prayut Chan-ocha either abstained or voted down Pita’s bid, which needed to secure at least 375 of 749 votes.

Today’s tally saw 324 votes in favor of Pita, 182 against and 199 abstentions. A second vote is scheduled for July 19, at which the second-ranked Peua Thai could, and some insiders say, will likely put forward its top candidate, property tycoon Srettha Thavisin. A third and final vote could take place the following day.

The political jockeying is expected to intensify in the days ahead as Pita will need to explain to coalition partners why he believes he can win a second vote after losing today. Many believe the Senate and other conservative MPs would be more willing to vote for the non-confrontational Srettha, who Peua Thai insiders have cast as their “compromise” candidate.

Today’s vote came a day after the Election Commission submitted a highly-anticipated case to the Constitutional Court against Pita over his alleged shareholding in a media company, which is banned under Thai election law. The EC requested that Pita be suspended as a lawmaker while the case is pending.

A separate case, also filed and accepted on Wednesday by the Constitutional Court, charges Pita and his MFP of trying to “overthrow” the monarchy through their call to reform the kingdom’s lese majeste law, which shields the king, queen, regent and heir apparent from criticism through maximum 15-year prison penalties.

The shareholding charge, if heard under Article 151 of the election law, could land Pita in prison and ban him from politics for a decade. The lese majeste case, filed by a private individual but nonetheless accepted by the high court, threatens to dissolve the entire MFP and strip its MPs of their seats.  

The vote and charges have upended the kingdom’s politics just two months after MFP’s shock election win on May 14, where the upstart party won 151 out of 500 lower house seats. Peua Thai, the until now anti-military party shadow-led by coup-toppled, self-exiled ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, had predicted a “landslide” win of 300 plus seats but placed a close, if not disappointing, second with 141.

Srettha Thavisin could be next in line for the Thai premiership. Image: Twitter

The military-aligned Palang Pracharat and United Thai Nation parties were both trounced, placing a distant fourth and fifth with 40 and 36 seats respectively. The result was a clear clarion call to end nearly a decade of Prayut’s military-dominated rule, both in coup-installed and elected incarnations. Tellingly, Bangkok, the heart of Thai political, economic and royal power, voted MFP in 35 of 36 seats.

Prayut announced his retirement from politics this week and is widely expected to assume the presidency of the Privy Council, a royalist body that provides advice to the king and which under its previous leader was a major center of autonomous royal power that has since been diminished during Maha Vajiralongkorn’s new reign.

He leaves with his monarchy-upholding legacy under threat. Move Forward’s hard drive to amend the lese majeste law, defined by Article 112 of the penal code, has put the palace front and center of the kingdom’s intensifying imbroglio pitting conservative and progressive forces – in what many see as an epic struggle for nothing less than the nation’s soul.

Many royalists believe MFP’s call to amend the law’s application and punishment is the thin end of a wider wedge aimed at diminishing other monarchal powers and prerogatives, including royal control over the ultra-rich Crown Property Bureau and top military units that were recently subsumed into the king’s private guard.

It was lost on few numerologically-inclined Thais that MFP and Peua Thai each won precisely 112 constituency seats at the May poll, i.e. the number associated with the lese majeste law, with the former outpacing the latter in the separate party list vote to arrive at a winning 151.  

The cosmic and other similarities largely stop there, though. While the two parties are now loosely in coalition, that could break down quickly after today’s parliamentary vote against Pita and with the now very real possibility that MFP could be dissolved by court order on royal grounds in the weeks or months ahead.

The stage is already well-set for a political schism. MFP and Peua Thai were at daggers drawn for weeks over which should appoint the House Speaker, which ultimately went to a junior coalition partner to break the impasse.

Peau Thai had earlier refused to sign a MFP MOU requiring coalition partners to support its lese majeste and wider progressive reform agenda. Certain Peua Thai machine politicians, namely ex-cop and former deputy premier Chalerm Yubamrung, have taken pee-nong (elder-junior) potshots at MFP’s youthful inexperience.

Peua Thai is widely believed to have stumbled at the polls due to popular perceptions it may enter a coalition with the military-aligned PPRP to form a “unity” government that would seek to bury the hatchet on two previous Shinawatra-toppling coups in 2006 and 2014.

Thailand’s caretaker Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha (R) and his deputy Prawit Wongsuwan look on before a weekly cabinet meeting at Government House in Bangkok, January 4, 2017. Photo: Twitter

Indeed, MFP campaigned partly on a promise never to join hands with the “uncles”, reference to UTN’s Prayut, 69, and his famously somnolent deputy General Prawit Wongsuwan, 77, who now leads the PPRP and is still a potential prime minister candidate. That, and a late shift towards more ideologically-driven campaign messaging ingeniously disseminated over social media, cannibalized votes from traditional Peua Thai supporters.

Bangkok-based diplomats and local observers point to at least three pre-election meetings between Pojaman Na Pombejra, Thaksin’s ex-wife and behind-the-scenes Peua Thai powerbroker, and top palace officials at which the “unity” government deal was reportedly discussed, including and especially in regard to whom would control the military in such a configuration.

Those discussions, if not negotiations, would explain Thaksin’s repeated vow to return from exile in July, which would seemingly require a royal pardon to avoid extended jail time for his various criminal corruption convictions. Thaksin recently pushed back his homecoming timeline until the political situation is “stable.”  

In another sign of a possible deal, a pending National Anti-Corruption Commission case against Thaksin over alleged Thai Airways procurement-related corruption dating back to 2003 was dropped today, just hours ahead of the parliamentary vote. Some also saw the anti-Thaksin Prayut’s retirement from politics as paving the way for a deal with the more Shinawatra-friendly Prawit.  

Whether Thaksin and Pojaman would be willing to overtly sacrifice Peua Thai’s long-held anti-military stance and run the risk of alienating the party’s “red shirt” stalwarts and supporters to bring Thaksin home and return Peua Thai to power as a de facto guardian, rather than challenger and disruptor, of conservative interests is unclear.

Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra looks on as he speaks to Reuters during an interview in Singapore February 23, 2016. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo - RTSKZW7
Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra during an interview in Singapore February 23, 2016. Photo: Asia Times files / Reuters / Edgar Su

What is clear is that the conservative establishment comprised of the palace, military and top business families all see MFP’s progressive reform agenda – from lese majeste reform to ending military conscription to upending big business monopolies – as a bigger existential threat than Thaksin’s now-fading and rather listless Peua Thai.  

The problem for Pita and MFP is that a Peua Thai-led coalition government that excludes them, potentially in the name of stability with the hanging risk of Pita’s disqualification and MFP’s dissolution, would still be democratic in form, if not spirit and substance.

The conservative fix is clearly in against Pita, one in which Peua Thai may prove to be part and parcel, and one that may thus be hard for his growing legions of progressive supporters to legitimately protest as anti-democratic.  

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