Trump’s China trade war plan keeps markets guessing – Asia Times

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Your shift, President Xi. This may be the important information from Donald Trump’s amazing reversal on large “day one ” tariffs on China.

The reprieve Trump appears to have granted  Asia’s biggest economy  is one Xi Jinping’s Communist Party certainly did n’t see coming. For weeks now, Trump and the gang of anti-China advisers he’s named to his new administration promised immediate 60 % tariffs as the centerpiece of a “shock-and-awe ” trade war.

No so quickly, it turns out. Taxes on Chinese goods are somewhat excluded from the storm of first-week executive orders. When pressed, Trump actually lowered his places. Whereas Canada and Mexico face 25 % levies by February 1, China might suffer a mere 10 %.

Chances are, this is Trump’s means of cajoling Xi to the dealing stand for a large Group of Two  business deal. To be sure, slow-walking China levies are aimed primarily at the share market.

Though Trump was n’t worry less about laws, standards or political politeness, he cares a great deal about Wall Street. Stories about stocks tumbling this year are the last thing the new US senator wants.

But Trump is also spoiling for an incredible clash with China, particularly once he realizes that Xi is n’t Shinzo Abe.

Beginning in December 2012, Japanese Prime Minister Abe pledged to revive an market hard being eclipsed by China. In the years that followed, Abe empowered the  Bank of Japan  to force its ultraloose guidelines into unknown territory and took steps to improve corporate governance.

Next came the Trump 1. 0 age, threatening trade war the likes of which Asia had never seen. Instantly, Abe snapped to focus to attempt to protect Asia’s No. 2 business from Trump’s taxes.

Following Trump’s impact vote win in November 2016, Abe made a run for New York. He was the first earth leader to visit Trump Tower to thank the man.

Abe did more than that, vouching for the “America First” leader in flowing words. “ I am convinced Mr. Trump is a leader in whom I may have great confidence ” and “a relationship of trust, ” Abe told investigators that day.

In the months and years that followed, Abe made a world splash  wining and dining  with Trump’s second White House group— including at Trump’s Florida sport team. On top of throwing praise, He gifted him premium golf equipment, including a US$ 3,755 motorist, among other extravagant gifts.

Abe was feted as a political Trump vehicle, credited for protecting Japan from the worst of the business conflict. One method Abe tamed Trump was acquiescing to a diplomatic trade deal in 2019. Abe’s genuine success was in running out the time on Trump 1. 0. By slow-walking on negotiations, Tokyo managed to achieve a “draw ” between the two nations.

At the end of the process, Japan effectively agreed to the same market-opening steps it had under the Barack Obama-led Trans-Pacific Partnership ( TPP ) pact that Trump scrapped.

Group Abe distracted Trump with greater market exposure for US meat, pork, and maize exporters. But the offer clearly did n’t include electrical products. Tokyo rejoiced.

“With typical hyperbole, President Trump declared the deal phenomenal, ” notes Matthew Goodman, who at the time led economic policy for the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “ But once again, President Trump … settled for a simple package. ”

You Xi pull off a comparable rearranging-of-the-deckchairs US business deal? The question is whether Xi’s group may even care.

After all, some earth leaders had a worse  2024  than Xi. China ’s home issue, weak home need, near-record youth unemployment and aging people have produced negative forces for seven consecutive rooms now.

The second-biggest market also saw an alarming increase in in-person demonstrations. And  China Inc.   is also dealing with the fallout from Xi’s tech-sector onslaught.

Xi, in other words, has some issues for which to reply. It is questionable his group would be glad to see the most prominent Chinese leader since Mao Zedong appearing to lose ground to Trump — or appearing to bow to Washington on the world stage.

But Xi even definitely knows that after a period of quiet, Trump will almost certainly purchase up the taxes he’s threatened — and perhaps even bigger types than he’s telegraphed. Trump’s leading patron, Tesla businessman Elon Musk, last month talked about the  needed for tariffs on Chinese energy cars.

“The Taiwanese car companies are the most economical car companies in the world, ” Musk told investors. “So, I think they will have major success outside of China depending on what kind of taxes or business restrictions are established. ” Musk has since walked backwards these remarks, but China has every reason to worry Trump might come after China ’s car market.

For today, Trump claims to have commissioned a broad overview of Washington ’s trade ties with China and other vital trading lovers. The White House, Team Trump says, will “investigate and treatment consistent trade deficits that damage our business and safety. ”

Such evaluations take occasion, of course. Times, in some cases. But Trump’s US Trade Representative company almost needs satellites to know that his 2018 cope with Xi was a failure. To Chad Bown at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the way in which the second Trump-Xi trade deal “fell little ” is the “anatomy of a dud. ”

As Bown sees it, “attempting to  maintain trade  — to join Trump’s goal of reducing the diplomatic trade imbalance— was self-defeating from the  begin. It did not help that neither China nor the United States was eager to de-escalate their painful price war. ”

Nor does that seem the path now as Trump surrounds himself with China secularists. They include assistant Peter Navarro, who co-wrote a text titled  “Death By China. ” And deal king Robert  Lighthizer, who’s signaled that Trump 2. 0 is considering a  currency devaluation ploy.

Yet US Treasury Secretary-nominee Scott Bessent, who’s considered less MAGA-ish than most Trump government takes, has taken to discussing China in dark conditions. During his subsequent confirmation reading, Bessent  said China had “the most uneven business in the history of the world ” and that it might be suffering a “severe recession/depression. ”

Bessent even segued to MAGA talking factors about Beijing’s presumably flooding the world with cheap products to finance its military passions. Commenting on Trump’s earlier deal, Bessent argued that “China has not made good on their [agriculture ] purchases ” and that the US will push Beijing to resume those purchases and perhaps add a “make-up provision. ”

But all this speaks to the great odds that Trump’s industry war may reemerge sooner rather than later. “If there’s any training for US-China ties from Trump 1. 0, it is that he is a fluctuation system and predicting what he will do is a sucker’s game, ” says lifelong China watcher  Bill  Bishop, who writes the Sinocism email.

Bishop notes that investors “had found some comfort in the fact that President Trump did not impose more tariffs on [ China ] on his first day in office, but they forget his earlier promise to impose 10 % tariffs, in addition to any other tariffs that may come on, because of fentanyl. He reiterated the 10 % tax hazard Tuesday. ”

The wait does purchase Xi a huge opportunity. While Trump is distracted with local exploits – from avenging his critics to overseeing a large imprisonment system for illegal residents to devising tax cuts – Xi’s team may expand efforts to reduce its trade surplus the natural way by increasing regional demand as a means of boosting import activity.

On the one hand, China ’s nearly US$ 1 trillion trade surplus proves that efforts by Trump 1. 0 and the West in general to alter the mechanics of world trade came up short. China ’s global manufacturing dominance has only grown since 2017, a fact Trump 2. 0 can verify with a mere Google search. Yet Xi has the power to alter these  global dynamics.

A vital first step would be to end the property crisis once and for all. The drip, drip, drip of bad news about housing demand and prices is deflating consumer prices and confidence simultaneously. Beijing’s slow response continues to inspire “Japanification ” chatter and have some on Wall Street debating if China is “uninvestable. ”

On Monday, Fitch Ratings downgraded homebuilder  China Vanke Co. , a reminder that default risks continue to hover over the sector. The move “reflects a deterioration in China Vanke’s sales and cash generation, which is eroding its liquidity buffer against large capital market debt maturities in 2025,” says Fitch analyst  Rebecca Tang.

Trouble is, Vanke’s challenges are hardly unique. The extreme downward  pressure on the yuan, meantime ,  could increase default risks as offshore debt payments become harder to make. This tug of war is limiting the People’s Bank of China ’s latitude to cut interest rates.

Xi could take steps to accelerate China ’s pivot toward increased domestic demand-led growth, reducing Trump 2. 0’s argument that Beijing is n’t sharing its 5 % rate of annual output globally.

At the moment, “China’s  economy is showing signs of revival, led by industrial output and exports, ” says Frederic Neumann, chief Asia  economist at  HSBC.

Yet a trade war would put these drivers in harm’s way. What’s needed are large and robust social safety nets to encourage  households  to spend more and save less. Xi and Premier Li Qiang talk often about doing so, but little has been achieved to transform China ’s consumption dynamics.

The drop in “spending on property by roughly half since the peak in 2021 represents a huge drop in  domestic demand, which cannot be easily replaced by more spending on consumer goods or government investment, ” says economist Duncan Wrigley at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Only top-down policy shifts in Beijing could jumpstart household demand and halt the deflationary pressures making headlines. At the same time, international funds are still waiting on moves to strengthen capital markets, improve corporate transparency, reduce the dominance of state-owned enterprises and make more space for startups to disrupt the economy.

This will require considerable political will in Beijing – and patience on the part of investors. Though markets crave major retooling, they don’t often afford Team Xi the space and time needed to execute them.

Moves to repair, change or tweak China ’s engines are certain to depress growth somewhat. Markets, though, tend to react badly when upgrades soften growth.

This paradox has carried over into 2025. The slow pace of reform in recent years is catching up with Xi’s government, and markets are reacting badly. Mainland stocks began 2025 with their  weakest start since 2016. That has Beijing rolling out measures to stabilize equities.

Among them is boosting how much pensions can invest in listed Chinese companies as investors brace for the second Trump administration. It’s part of a Beijing directive is to “steady the stock market, and clear bottlenecks for the introduction of mid-to-long-term capital, ” according to the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

Yet nothing might steady Chinese markets faster than knowing how or when Trump might tax Beijing– and by how much. Until traders get an answer, 2025 is sure to make market volatility great again.  

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Malaysian doctor found dead at home in Sabah was not bullied; work stress a ‘major factor’: Probe

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Nineteen testimony including four family members and 11 medical workers were interviewed, he said.

“We found that the jobs carried out were as specified in the list of jobs and job descriptions, with nothing extending beyond her range or outside her area of duties, ” added Borhan, a former director-general of Public Service.

Commenting on Tay’s shift to Sabah, Borhan said Tay was a “city girl” who had moved to a new place with a distinct culture all by herself, reported Free Malaysia Now.  

He said there was no proof that an app to get posted to West Malaysia was ignored and Tay did not report any appeal with the state health department or ministry’s human resources department to be in the island.

Tay’s walk from the better-resourced Kuala Lumpur Hospital to Lahad Datu Hospital in Sabah contributed tremendously to the stress and pressure she faced, said Dzulkefly.

“According to the experts leading the committee, the bullying claims did not meet the definition of abuse but were related to elements such as severe work force that mentally affected the later Dr Tay, ” he said, as quoted by Malay Mail.  

The minister said the taskforce’s findings have been conveyed to Tay’s family.  

“That’s the finding ( after ) three months ( of ) investigation, ” Tay’s brother, YS Tay, wrote on Facebook on Wednesday as he shared a Chinese-language news outlet’s post.  

“ I fully understand how difficult it must be for the family to process these findings, ” Dzulkefly said, adding that he is committed to addressing bullying in the workplace.  

The independent task force has also submitted several recommendations to the health ministry, including for the provision of better support for healthcare workers posted away from home to help them adapt to different cultures and environments, said Borhan.

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Nearly 200 Bangkok schools close over air pollution

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BANGKOK: Air pollution forced nearly 200 schools in Bangkok to close on Thursday ( Jan 23 ), local authorities said, as officials urged people to work from home and restricted heavy vehicles in the city. Annual air pollution has much afflicted Thailand, like many countries in the region, as warmer,Continue Reading

Watch: Couples say ‘I do’ as Thailand legalises same-sex marriage

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The BBC spoke to LGBTQ people in Thailand wed in a large meeting on the same day that the land legalised same-sex relationship.

More than 100 people got married at Siam Paragon, a luxury store in northern Bangkok on Thursday as the laws came into effect.

Gay couples now have the same rights as other couples to maintain assets, gain, choose and get decisions about their girlfriend’s health treatment

Towns across Thailand are trying to outsmart one another with parties and items like muffins, bags and free air tickets to enjoy the lawful step.

Thailand has long been seen as a haven for Transgender individuals- it remains an oddity in Asia- but activists say they are fighting for more changes because some laws there are still no gender-neutral.

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Snakebit UN: What happens after the US leaves the WHO? – Asia Times

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Donald Trump’s plan to withdraw the United States from the World Health Organization ( WHO ) has been met with dismay in the public health field. Some have called one of the US president ’s first executive orders “a grave error ” and “absolutely bad news. ”

The WHO is a United Nations agency that aims to expand universal health coverage, coordinates actions to health emergencies such as epidemics, and has a large emphasis on healthy life. It does not have the power to enforce heath plan but influences plan worldwide, especially in low-income places.

The WHO plays an important coordinating position in surveillance, reaction and policy for communicable and non-infectious illnesses. In reality, infectious diseases have the most pressing need for international cooperation.

Unlike non-communicable illnesses, diseases can spread quickly from one state to another, just as Covid spread to trigger a crisis.

T. Schneider/Shutterstock

We have much to thank the WHO for, including the eradication of smallpox, a miracle which could not have been achieved without international cooperation and authority. It has also played a major role in control of influenza and HIV.

Why does the US want to remove?

The causes for receiving include:

mishandling of the Covid-19 epidemic … and other global wellbeing crises, its failing to follow urgently needed reforms, and its ability to show independence from the improper political influence of WHO member states.

The professional buy also cites the wealthier higher bills the US makes to the WHO compared to China. In 2024-25, the US contributed 22 % of the organization’s mandatory funding from member states compared to approximately 15 % for China.

President Trump initiated departure from the WHO over related problems in 2020. But this was reversed by President Biden in 2021.

What happens future?

The departure may take a year to come into effect, and may require approval by the US Congress. How this will play out is vague, but it seems plausible the WHO will reduce US money.

The US removal may also be the final nail in the coffin for the WHO Pandemic Agreement, which faltered in 2024 when member state may not agree on the final document.

Trump’s professional order states all conversations around the epidemic agreement will continue. However, the buy clues that the US will look at working with global partners to address global health.

The US Centers for Disease and Control ( CDC ) already has such international partners and could feasibly do this. It now convenes a global system of teaching in pandemic response, which could provide a model. But to move in this direction needs finessing, as another target of the fresh US state is to reduce or stop foreign aid.

The WHO likewise convenes a range of professional commissions and network of research facilities. One among many sites of lab is for virus, comprising more than 50 laboratories in 41 member says. This includes five “super labs”, one of which is at the CDC. It’s questionable what may happen to like networks, many of which have significant US components.

With the threat of bird flu mutating to become a people crisis these international systems are critical for monitoring of pandemic risks.

Flock of chicks
Global networks are needed to keep an eye on pandemic threats, including the spread of bird flu. Photo: riza korhan oztunc / Shutterstock via The Conversation

WHO expert committees also drive global health policy on a range of issues. It is possible for the WHO to accredit labs in non-member countries, or for experts from non-member countries to be on WHO expert committees. But how this will unfold, especially for US government-funded labs or experts who are US government employees, is unclear.

Another potential impact of a US withdrawal is the opportunity for other powerful member nations to become more influential once the US leaves. This may lead to restrictions on US experts sitting on WHO committees or working with the organization in other ways.

While the US withdrawal will see the WHO lose funding, member states contribute about 20 % of the WHO budget. The organization relies on donations from other organizations ( including private companies and philanthropic organizations ), which make up the remaining  80 %.

So the US withdrawal may increase the influence of these other organizations.

A chance for reform

The Trump administration is not alone in its criticism of how the WHO handled COVID and other infectious disease outbreaks.

For example, the WHO agreed with Chinese authorities in early January 2020 there was no evidence the “mystery pneumonia” in Wuhan was contagious, while in reality, it was likely already spreading for months. This was a costly mistake.

There was criticism over WHO’s delay in declaring the pandemic, stating Covid was not airborne ( despite evidence otherwise ). There was also criticism about its investigation into the origins of Covid, including conflicts of interest in the investigating team.

The WHO was also criticized for its handling of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa a decade ago. Eventually, this led to a series of reforms, but arguably not enough.

Old sign in French warning about Ebola
Reforms followed the Ebola epidemic in West Africa a decade ago. But were they enough? Photo: Sergey Uryadnikov / Shutterstock

More changes needed

US public health expert Ashish Jha argues for reform at WHO. Jha, who is the dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and former White House COVID response coordinator, argues the organization has an unclear mission, too broad a remit, poor governance and often prioritizes political sensitivities of member states.

He proposes the WHO should narrow its focus to fewer areas, with outbreak response key. This would allow reduced funding to be used more efficiently.

Rather than the US withdrawing from the WHO, he argues the US would be better to remain a member and leverage such reform.

Without reform, there is a possibility other countries may follow the US, especially if governments are pressured by their electorates to increase spending on domestic needs.

The WHO has asked the US to reconsider withdrawing. But the organization may need to look at further reforms for any possibility of future negotiations. This is the best path toward a solution.

C Raina MacIntyre is professor of global biosecurity, NHMRC L3 research fellow, head, biosecurity program, Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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How Trump could stay on beyond his second term – Asia Times

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Think Donald Trump can’t become president after his second word is up in January 2029? Consider afterwards.

When President-elect Donald Trump met with congressional Republicans shortly after his November 2024 election victory, he floated the idea of another term: “ I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘ He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out. ’ ”

At first glance, this seems like an apparent prank. The 22nd Amendment to the Constitution is evident that Trump can’t been elected again. The words of the article states:

“No man shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no man who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two decades of a name to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. ”

That amendment was passed in response to Franklin Roosevelt’s four elections to the president. Since George Washington had stepped down at the end of his next word, no leader had sought a second word, much less a third. The act was evidently meant to prevent leaders from serving more than two terms in office.

A man stands on the balcony of a large white building speaking to a crowd.
Franklin D. Roosevelt delivers his third annual solve on Jan. 20, 1945. Photo: Abbie Rowe, National Archives and Records Administration. Office of National Library. Harry S. Truman Library, via Wikimedia Commons

Because Trump has been elected leader twice now, the ordinary language of the article bars him from being elected a second time. Some have argued that since Trump’s words were nonconsecutive, the article does n’t use to him. But the article makes no distinction between subsequent and nonconsecutive terms in office.

Though the 22nd Amendment prohibits Trump from being elected chairman again, it does not prevent him from serving as president beyond Jan. 20, 2029. The reason for this is that the 22nd Amendment only prohibits someone from being “elected ” more than twice. It says nothing about one becoming president in some other means than being elected to the office.

Skirting the laws

There are a few possible alternative situations. Under typical circumstances, they would be next to impossible. But Donald Trump has never been a regular leader.

On topic after matter, Trump has pushed the outer parameters of political power. Most important, he has already shown his eagerness to stretch or actually break the law to stay in business. And while Trump claims he’s only joking when he floats the idea of a third term, he has a long history of using “jokes ” as a way of floating trial balloons.

However, once he leaves business, Trump could once again face the possibility of criminal prosecution and perhaps prison time, further motivating him to stay in power. As Trump’s next word advances, don’t be surprised if American hear more about how he may try to stay in business. Here is what the Constitution says about that possibility.

Nine citizens have served as president without first being elected to that business. John Tyler, Millard Fillmore, Andrew Johnson, Chester Arthur, Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson and Gerald Ford were all vice president who stepped into the office when their forebears either died or resigned.

The 22nd Amendment does no bar a term-limited senator from being elected vice president. On the other hand, the 12th Amendment does position that “no people lawfully unsuitable to the office of the President shall be eligible to that of the Vice-President of the United States. ”

It’s not clear whether this limitation applies to a two-term leader who is unsuitable for a second term because of the 22nd Amendment – or whether it only imposes on the vice president the Constitution’s different criteria for political eligibility, namely that they be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years of age and have lived in the US for at least 14 years.

That issue would have to be decided by the US Supreme Court. If the justices decide in Trump’s prefer – as they have just on questions regarding the 14th Amendment’s rebellion section and political immunity – then the 2024 ticket of Trump-Vance could become the 2028 Vance-Trump ticket. If elected, Vance was therefore retire, making Trump leader afterwards.

But Vance would not even have to retire in order for a Vice President Trump to exercise the power of the administration. The 25th Amendment to the Constitution declares that if a leader declares that “he is unable to transfer the rights and responsibilities of the company … such rights and obligations may be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President. ”

In fact, the US has had three such acting presidents – George H W Bush, Dick Cheney and Kamala Harris. All of them held presidential power for a brief period when the sitting president underwent anesthesia during medical procedures; Cheney did it twice.

In this scenario, shortly after taking office on January 20, 2029, President Vance could invoke the 25th Amendment by notifying the speaker of the House and the president pro tempore of the Senate that he is unable to discharge the duties of president. He would not need to give any reason or proof of this incapacity.

Vice President Trump would then become acting president and assume the powers of the presidency until such time as President Vance issued a new notification indicating that he was able to resume his duties as president.

‘Tandemocracy’

But exercising the power of the presidency does n’t even necessarily require being president or acting president.

Trump has repeatedly expressed his admiration for autocratic Russian President Vladimir Putin, so he might want to follow the example of the Medvedev-Putin “tandemocracy. ”

Two men in suits stand in an open area.
Russian leaders Vladimir Putin, left, and Dmitry Medvedev have collaborated to hold power for more than a quarter-century, despite laws imposing term limits or other restrictions. Photo: Mikhail Svetlov / Getty Images via The Conversation

In 2008, term limits in the Russian constitution prevented Putin from running for president after two consecutive terms. Instead, he selected a loyal subordinate, Dmitry Medvedev, to run for president.

When elected, Medvedev appointed Putin as his prime minister. By most accounts, Putin remained firmly in power and made most of the important decisions. Following this example, a future Republican president could appoint Trump to an executive branch position from which he could still exercise power.

In 2012, Putin was able to run for president again, and he and Medvedev once again swapped roles. Since then, Putin has succeeded in amending the Russian Constitution to effectively allow him to remain president for the rest of his life.

Using a figurehead

Then again, Trump might just want to avoid all of these legal subterfuges by following the example of George and Lurleen Wallace. In 1966, the Alabama Constitution prevented Wallace from running for a third consecutive term as governor.

Still immensely popular and unwilling to give up power, Wallace chose to have his wife, Lurleen, run for governor. It was clear from the beginning that Lurleen was just a figurehead for George, who promised to be an adviser to his wife, at a salary of US$ 1 a year.

The campaign’s slogan of “Two Governors, One Cause, ” made it clear that a vote for Lurleen was really a vote for George. Lurleen won in a landslide.

According to one account of her time in office, the Wallaces had “something of a Queen-Prime Minister relationship: Mrs. Wallace handles the ceremonial and formal duties of state. Mr. Wallace draws the grand outlines of state policy and sees that it is carried out. ”

Trump’s wife was not born a US citizen and therefore is n’t eligible to be president. But as the head of the Republican Party, Trump could ensure that the next GOP presidential candidate was a member of his family or some other person who would be absolutely loyal and obedient to him.

If that person went on to win the White House in 2028, Trump could serve as an unofficial adviser, allowing him to continue to wield the power of the presidency without the actual title.

Philip Klinkner is James S Sherman professor of government, Hamilton College

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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China’s air-to-air hypersonic US B-21 bomber’s kryptonite – Asia Times

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China ’s fast air-to-air weapons, designed especially to shoot down US stealth bombers, indicate a potential seismic shift in the future of heat battle, one that could drastically alter the Indo-Pacific’s balance of power.

Chinese scientists have confirmed the existence of a new hypersonic air-to-air weapon, which has reportedly suffered serious heat-resistance tests to join the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s strict performance requirements, according to a new South China Morning Post (SCMP ) report.

Developed by the China Airborne Missile Academy ( CAMA ) in Luoyang, Henan province, the new missile poses a significant threat to US military aircraft, including the B-21 stealth bomber.

According to SCMP, the last assessments of full-scale weapon designs were conducted in an arc-heated weather hole capable of generating warm air flows reaching tens of thousands of degree Fahrenheit.

This approach ensures the missile may endure prolonged exposure to temperatures exceeding 1,200 degrees Fahrenheit, equal to flying at Mach 9 for an extended period. The wind tunnel, primarily used for challenging space missions, operates continuously for an hour or more, though its enormous power consumption makes it costly.

The missile’s high speed and heat endurance make it a formidable weapon capable of outmaneuvering current US military aircraft. Highlighting its capabilities, SCMP noted that, in a simulated war game, China ’s hypersonic air-to-air missiles capable of reaching Mach 6 shot down a target resembling a US B-21 bomber and its companion drone.

The missiles used a solid fuel “pulse engine ” for adjustable power output, enabling them to ascend to near space and descend unpredictably along a “Qian Xuesen trajectory. ” This capability surpasses the capabilities of current hypersonic weapons, which struggle to maintain control at high speeds.

The B-21 is critical for countering a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, leveraging its stealth, range, and payload capabilities to operate in highly contested areas.

A March 2023 report by Mark Gunzinger for the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies notes that the B-21 would target essential objectives in the initial phases of a conflict, such as People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ) amphibious assault ships, missile launchers and airbases.

These targets, crucial for China ’s offensive actions, likely fall under the PLA’s anti-access/area-denial ( A2/AD ) framework, underscoring the importance of the B-21’s stealth for its effectiveness.

Gunzinger also highlights the B-21’s ability to carry various munitions, including small precision-guided bombs, to strike mobile and well-defended targets effectively. Its long-range capability allows operation from distant bases like Guam and Australia, reducing dependence on forward-deployed forces vulnerable to PLA attacks.

Given the B-21’s critical role, China ’s stealth fighters, equipped with hypersonic air-to-air missiles, could significantly threaten its operations. The J-20’s large internal capacity, long range, and supercruise capability suggest it is designed as a long-range interceptor and air-to-surface attack platform.

Similarly, the new-generation J-36, a tailless delta-shaped stealth aircraft, combines high speed, long range, heavy payload capabilities and advanced sensors. These features enable it to deploy long-range air-to-air and air-to-surface missiles against enemy bases, ships and critical support units while maintaining stealth, according to Bill Sweetman for The Strategist.

While the US F-22 and F-35 may rival China ’s J-20 and J-36, their performance comparison remains speculative due to limited information. Kris Osborn, writing for 1945 in November 2024, suggests that any contest between these aircraft would likely hinge on the quality of their mission systems, sensor fidelity, computing power, weapon range and fire control capabilities.

China ’s apparent successful development of hypersonic air-to-air missiles and advanced fighters contrasts sharply with the troubled progress of the US Next Generation Air Dominance ( NGAD ) fighter program. The NGAD’s future remains uncertain as the US Air Force paused its contract award due to escalating costs, now estimated at US$ 300 million per aircraft.

Additional challenges include budgetary competition with the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile ( ICBM ) and B-21 programs, debates over prioritizing manned fighters or distributed platforms with unmanned assets, and whether to produce lower-cost, upgradeable aircraft instead of singular expensive fighters.

China ’s simulation of hypersonic air-to-air missile capabilities, including a simulated B-21 shootdown, also underscores the impact of beyond-visual-range ( BVR ) capabilities.

These advancements shift air-to-air engagements from close-range dogfights to long-distance precision strikes. Stealth, advanced radars and long-range missiles allow aircraft to detect and engage opponents without being detected themselves.

The China Aerospace Studies Institute ( CASI) emphasized in a July 2024 report that China ’s development of long-range air-to-air missiles aligns with its focus on countering US and allied air dominance in the Indo-Pacific.

Missiles such as the PL-15 and PL-17 are designed to outrange US counterparts like the AIM-120, targeting critical enablers such as tankers and airborne early warning and control systems ( AWACS) to degrade adversary power projection.

According to CASI, the PLAAF integrates these advanced weapons with aircraft like the J-16 and J-20, enhancing their reach and effectiveness. This capability supports China ’s broader A2/AD strategy to neutralize aerial threats and establish local air superiority over contested regions, including the Taiwan Strait and the First Island Chain.

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‘Trillions of rupiah’ Indonesia’s central bank channelled to lawmakers allegedly misused: Anti-graft agency

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JAKARTA: Trillions of rupiah channelled by Indonesia’s central bank to some lawmakers under a corporate social responsibility ( CSR ) programme were allegedly misused, said the country ’s anti-graft agency.

“We are talking about trillions ( of rupiah ) but the exact amount will be announced later, ” said  Asep Guntur, producer of studies at the  Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) on Tuesday ( Jan 21 ), as quoted by news agency CNN Indonesia. One trillion dirhams is equivalent to US$ 61. 55 million.

KPK’s Asep said its research focuses on whether the money were misappropriated or used for the expected CSR programs.  

“If the funds were used properly for CSR programs, such as building of school houses, then there is no problem, but we have signs of abuse, ” Asep was quoted as saying by the Jakarta Globe.

The politicians are members of the House of Representatives or DPR, one of two appointed chambers of the People’s Consultative Assembly, which is the federal government of Indonesia.  

The DPR has 11 earnings and those involved in the Bank Indonesia bribery probe are apparently members of Commission XI, which oversees financing issues, national development planning and the financial services sector of the country.  

The KPK has no named any suspects however. But several lawmakers and central bank officials have been questioned, including National Democratic Party ( NasDem ) politician Satori.  

Satori apparently admitted to receiving money from Bank Indonesia to fund social programmes for components in his political city after he was questioned on Dec 27.

He also claimed that all members from Commission XI had in fact received similar funds through a foundation.  

KPK’s Asep, however, told CNN Indonesia that Satori had allegedly misused the funds in his electoral district of Cirebon in West Java.  

The anti-graft agency, which raided Bank Indonesia’s Jakarta headquarters and the office of central bank governor Perry Warjiyo on Dec 16, plans to release further details as the investigation progresses.  

The agency first said in September last year it was investigating CSR programmes run in 2023 by the country ’s financial regulators, including the central bank, for potential misuse of funds, according to media reports.

“For example, ( if we find that ) only 50 per cent of the CSR fund was used ( for social programmes ) and the remaining 50 per cent was not used, the remaining 50 per cent could have been used for personal gain, ” Asep said at the time.

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