MANILA – Out of all the Southeast Asian nations, the Philippines excels in its tense interactions with China. Large bilateral relations are also in trouble as tensions escalate in the South China Sea.
A significant improvement in diplomatic relations was the preceding Trump presidency oversaw. Under Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who has overseen an extraordinary decay in relations, that time is today firmly in the backseat.
The two parties are once more at odds with one another over another contentious issues in the South China Sea despite negotiating a “provisional deal” to control a rise in tensions over the Second Thomas Shoal, the site of numerous clashes in recent months.
Another significant incident occurred on August 19 near the Sabina Shoal, only a week after Spanish military authorities accused Chinese warrior jets of engaging in illegal and risky maneuvers against Philippine police aircraft close to the disputed Scarborough Shoal.
According to the Philippine National Task Force on the West Philippine Sea, which controls some of the South China Sea’s territory, Chinese vessels engaged in “unlawful and aggressive maneuvers]that resulted in collisions causing structural damage to]two ] Philippine Coast Guard vessels [patrolling in the area ]”.
Chinese officials quickly blamed their Filipino peers, who they alleged “deliberately collided” with their arteries.
According to China Coast Guard spokesman Geng Yu,” Philippine coast guard vessels… illegally entered the waters near the]Sabina Reef ] in the]Spratly Group of Islands ] without permission from the Chinese government.” He claimed that the Chinese edge” took control actions against the Spanish vessels in accordance with the law.”
Earlier this year, China formally imposed fresh restrictions against” intruders” across its nine-dash range region of state, which covers the bulk of the South China Sea.
Beijing’s wide states were rejected as opposed to contemporary international law in a 2016 judicial tribunal decision initiated by Manila under the supervision of the UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea ( UNCLOS).
But, the conflict at sea is now being mirrored in the Philippines, which is constantly working to lessen its economic reliance on China while cracking down on alleged Foreign criminal organizations that are active there.
The result has been a steady easing of people-to-people ties as many Chinese citizens have been snared by Chinese legal organizations that are responsible for the Philippines ‘ once-thriving online casino industry.
A flurry of kidnapping, torture, and murder cases has caused Filipino leaders to impose stricter immigration restrictions on Chinese citizens and moratorium Chinese online casinos.
All of this is occurring in the South China Sea as tensions rise again after a brief period of comparative quiet.
A People’s Liberation Army Air Force ( PLAAF ) aircraft was accused earlier this month of carrying out “dangerous and provocative actions” in the airspace over the Scarborough Shoal, which is located just over 100 nautical miles from Philippine shores, by Armed Forces of the Philippines ( AFP ) chief general Romeo Brawner Jr.
A PLAAF warrior plane allegedly carried out a dangerous manoeuvre while conducting a routine police on a NC-212i Philippine Air Force aircraft and even dropped bursts in its path.
Since a months-long naval standoff in the middle of 2012, China has been in charge of the Scarborough Shoal, but Philippine authorities have consistently challenged the new status quo by conducting routine aerial and sporadic maritime patrols there.
China maintains that it is in charge of the airspace above and the disputed land feature. However, the Philippines asserts that China’s actions are in violation of both the Chicago Convention on Aviation Safety and UNCLOS, which affirms Manila’s exclusive economic zone in the area.
Then came the most recent incident at Sabina Shoal. Although the precise circumstances surrounding the incident are still undetermined, it appears that China mistook Philippine routine patrols across the Spratlys as part of a alleged attempt to strengthen Manila’s military presence on the disputed shoal.
The Coast Guard ships were allegedly heading for other Philippine-occupied land features in the South China Sea, some of which had little to no military presence, rather than the Sabina Shoal.
However, Chinese authorities likely fear that the Philippines will try to replicate its successful establishment in the past and , recent fortification , of military facilities on the Second Thomas Shoal.
The Philippine government has taken a two-track course in response to the Sabina Shola incident. On the one hand, it’s considering bringing up a diplomatic resolution to resolve the incident as well as potential new legal issues.
On the other hand, discussions are reportedly taking place about potential extensions of the “provisional agreement” over the Second Thomas Shoal to other contested land features.
The details of the agreement are still ambiguous, but the two parties have likely agreed to exchange some information and work together to some degree to prevent miscommunication and military discord.
Nevertheless, broad bilateral relations are headed down not up. Although trade remains robust, both investment and people-to-people relations are gradually disintegrating.
In the name of national security, Philippine authorities have publicly advocated for decoupling from Chinese-critical minerals and infrastructure investments in favor of Western investors.
The Marcos Jr. government effectively canceled China’s Belt and Road Initiative ( BRI ) last year because of numerous large-ticket Chinese infrastructure projects that were promised but never completed.
There are also very few, if any, indications that large Chinese tech, digital, and electric vehicle ( EV ) companies that have recently been active in neighboring Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand have any interest in making an investment in the Philippines.
In response to a widespread crackdown on Chinese-run online casinos, known locally as Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators, the Marcos Jr administration has tightened travel restrictions on Chinese nationals.
” Disguising as legitimate entities, their operations have ventured into illicit areas furthest from gaming, such as financial scamming, money laundering, prostitution, human trafficking, kidnapping, brutal torture, ]and ] even murder. Marcos Jr. declared that the grave abuse and disregard for our system of laws must end during his third State of the Nation Address last month, which included a blanket ban on POGOs.
Meanwhile, the sensational case of Chinese national-turned-Filipino Alice Guo, who is accused of conspiring with criminal syndicates to become a city mayor, has sparked a national outcry about Chinese criminal influence. Apparently, Guo eluded authorities and left the country.
” We will expose the culprits who have betrayed the people’s trust and aided in her flight”, the Filipino president said in a statement. ” Those accountable will be suspended and held accountable to the fullest extent of the law.”
The investigation into Guo’s case has heightened concerns about espionage by thousands of Chinese nationals working in POGO-related businesses.
Numerous Chinese nationals who applied for lucrative jobs in the Philippines on the basis of false promises have since been victims of various criminal syndicates that run online casinos in major Philippine cities.
The Southeast Asian nation’s popularity has declined as a result for Chinese tourists, who now prefer safer and more accessible alternatives to Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia, according to statistics.
In fact, Chinese tourist arrivals in the Philippines have drastically decreased, leading the Chinese-Filipino business community to openly call for the lifting of Chinese nationals ‘ visa requirements.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian