Vladimir Putin made his first trip to an International Criminal Court ( ICC ) member country since 2023 when the body issued a warrant for his arrest on September 2. This is the first time the Russian president has been to Mongolia.
Putin’s visit may put the small, central Asian nation’s scheme of independence and the influence of foreign corporations to the test while actually observing a Soviet-Mongolian military victory in World War II.
Mongolia, a nation of only 3.3 million people and a sizable area of land, has long pursued its foreign policy in the shadow of China and Russia, two nations that share close historical and financial ties.
The state has attempted to boost its freedom from its more effective companions by developing cordial relations with so-called third-neighbor , countries, which include the United States, Germany, Japan and South Korea.
Mongolia has attempted to cut out a market on the global stage by presenting itself as a natural diplomatic meeting place through this strategy. For instance, the monthly Ulaanbaatar Dialogue provides a platform for local places and different invited states, including those from the US and EU member states, to discuss topics ranging from climate change to local safety and crucial materials.
As scientists of Mongolia and China, we attended the previous such speech in June 2024 and witnessed Mongolia’s diplomatic efforts first. It is a technique that has worked for the nation, but as activities like Putin’s visit show, it can be a difficult balancing act.
A carefully watched attend
The schedule of Putin’s vacation is formally linked to history. The Battle of Khalkhin Gol, where combined Soviet-Mongol forces defeated Chinese troops in World War II, was celebrated 85 years earlier, as well as the founding of Mongolia’s nationwide railroad company 75 years ago.
Yet it is a second traditional marker, the second anniversary of a complete Russian-Mongolian proper partnership, that highlights the visit’s significance from a contemporary political perspective.
Mongolia has maintained a close relationship with Moscow despite Putin’s pariah status in much of the international community, in addition to its friendly relations with” third neighbors.” Most recently, Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh and Putin met at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in July.
Yet Putin’s visit now – the first he has made to the country since 2019 – poses a challenge for Mongolia as it seeks to balance its obligations to the Western-led international order, of which the ICC is a part, with Ulaanbaatar’s desire to stay friends with its powerful neighbors.
Few things demonstrate this diplomatic tightrope walk more than Mongolia’s membership in the ICC, which reportedly ordered Putin to be detained for allegedly assisting in the unlawful deportation and enslavement of Ukrainian children to Russia.
In response to the ICC’s founding treaty, the Rome Statute, which requires member nations to take action if subjects to court warrant enter their territory, Ukraine has urged Mongolia to detain Putin.
However, the ICC lacks a reliable enforcement mechanism, and member states may also be exempt from making arrests if doing so violates a number of treaty obligations or diplomatic immunity granted to a party.
Putin’s visit is anticipated to show how little can be done to encircle Moscow. Mongolia will likely demonstrate how far it will go to accommodate its powerful neighbor given the power imbalance between the states.
Mongolia’s ‘ Third Neighbor ‘ policy
For almost 70 years, Mongolia was closely allied with the Soviet Union. However, the nation had to alter its economic and political relations as a result of the communist government’s fall and subsequent geopolitical reorientation.
Mongolia became the only former communist nation in Asia with an open economy and democratic political system as a result. It gained popularity among the US and other Western nations, who saw it as a model for the region.
Putin’s anticipated trip is only the most recent in a line of highly public state visits as Mongolia tries to maintain close ties with its neighbors while also boosting international cooperation.
So far in 2024, Mongolia has received heads of state or foreign ministers from the US, Slovenia, the Philippines, Belarus, the United Kingdom and Germany. Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene traveled to the US and met with Vice President Kamala Harris, as well as China to meet President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang in 2023.
Pope Francis and French President Emmanuel Macron have both recently visited Ulaanbaatar.
Mongolia ca n’t escape geography
Although Ulaanbaatar’s efforts to win friends and goodwill around the world have been successful, geography cannot be overshadowed by them. Mongolia, which is encircled between Russia and China, is still susceptible to the eccentricities of its two enormous neighbors.
Russia supplies the majority of Mongolia’s electricity and gasoline, and it relies on it for almost all of its diesel and gasoline needs. Additionally, Russia retains 50 % ownership in several important infrastructure and mining projects in Mongolia as a result of a legacy agreement from the Soviet era. In particular, Russia is a partner in the Mongolian railway system, which has grown in importance as a trade corridor between China and Russia, and China and Europe.
Mongolia fears that if Russia prioritizes its own energy needs in the middle of war over the interests of its neighbors, no matter how deep those ties may be, that its fuel supplies and transportation network will be hampered.
Similarly, Mongolia is dependent on China for the majority of its non-energy imports, including food, consumer and industrial products. And China is the destination for 90 % of Mongolia’s exports, primarily coal and copper.
In response to perceived flaws, such as China’s delaying of trade and a significant loan in 2016 in protest of the Dalai Lama’s visit to Mongolia, both Russia and China have used their economic and political leverage as leverage on Mongolia in the past.
Mongolia and the new China-Russia alignment
Mongolia and other Central Asian nations are facing new difficulties as Russia and China’s political and economic ties get closer.
For the majority of the 20th century, Mongolia relied on the rivalry between the two superpowers to maintain and expand its independence. It served as a buffer state between China and the Soviet Union.
However, the growing friendship between China and Russia, which was highlighted by Putin and Xi’s declaration of a” no limits” partnership in February 2022, just days before Russian troops invaded Ukraine, raises the question of whether China and Russia will start working together to gain even more control over Mongolia and other smaller states in the region.
Ulaanbaatar might be focused on these geopolitical issues during Putin’s visit. Mongolia has avoided confrontations with Moscow in international settings despite the sanctions being applied to it and seeing disruption to transportation and business connections.
Mongolia regularly abstains from UN resolutions that condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine along with China. However, it has also taken care not to violate the sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and its allies as a sign that Mongolia continues to be committed to its third neighbor policy.
Mongolia is aware of how important it is for Putin’s visit to maintain good relations with other countries and the flow of fuel, but it is also concerned about how the visit and its anticipated non-enforcement of ICC sanctions will affect Mongolia’s standing with international organizations and powers outside the region.
Mongolia is working hard to maintain its independence in a shifting world order by focusing on its role as a neutral state and friend to all. However, visits like those made by Putin demonstrate how challenging that endeavor can be.
At the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Christopher K. Tong is an associate professor of Asian studies. Royal Roads University professor of business is Charles Krusekopf.
This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.