US President Donald Trump has been somewhat restrained in his statements regarding his top rival China in the wake of a burst of professional orders, business battle bluster, and colonial ambitions.
Trump has stated that the goal of his foreign policy is to avoid conflict and end existing problems while portraying himself as a “peacemaker.” In a social media post a few hours before his official opening, Trump said,” President Xi and I will do everything possible to make the planet more peaceful and safe. I anticipate that we will work together to address some issues.  ,
That and other conciliatory gestures, such as an executive order to halt TikTok’s ban and a delay in imposing threatened 60 % tariffs on all Chinese goods, are evoking the possibility that Trump will create a new” Monroe Doctrine” order that will allow China to consolidate its hold on East Asia.  ,  ,  ,
That, in turn, is raising issues of possible withdrawal among America’s front allies in the Pacific, not least in the Philippines, which has played a vital role in the outgoing Biden administration’s prolonged punishment plan vis-a-vis China. That included granting access to significant Spanish military installations close to Taiwan and launching the powerful Typhon missile system from Philippine soil.
Former Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, who played a key part in Manila’s traditional 2016 mediation success at The Hague on its promises versus China in the South China Sea, stated in a recent press meeting,” We don’t really know what Trump did do… The US has been an isolationist country half in history [before World War II ]… and they can end up isolationist again, [that is fear], ] that Trump did agree to divide the world.
” What if tomorrow Trump says we can’t blame China for invading]the ] Spratlys]in the South China Sea]. We have to strengthen our defensive capabilities, we have to modernize the Armed Forces of the Philippines. We can only rely on ourselves, according to the influential magistrate at this week’s UTAK Forum in Manila.
Carpio is not alone. Other well-known Philippine political figures have voiced their concerns, including former Senator Antonio Trillanes, who developed close relationships with the newly appointed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio during the turbulent Rodrigo Duterte era.
Trump is “very unpredictable, nothing is in stone,” he said of Trump in a recent interview, while also expressing hope that more traditionally-minded cabinet members like Rubio will carry the load in keeping America’s crucial alliances in Asia. A mutual defense agreement between the US and the Philippines mandates that Washington be prepared to defend Manila in the event of an armed conflict.
Trump’s Beijing-friendly rhetoric may very well indicate a radical reorientation in Washington’s international relations and a significant thaw with China, in addition to the appointment of so-called “restrainers” who seek to restrict US military involvement in key defense positions.
In response, the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. government is cutting back on defense spending and actively diversifying the Philippines ‘ strategic alliances with nations outside of America in the Indo-Pacific.  ,
 ,” We are not dependent on a single partner or ally. Even in our own resupply missions]in the South China Sea] we do things independently despite offers of help from our ally]America]. We are modernizing, strengthening our alliances, and upscaling our personnel…and deepening our integration and interoperability with like-minded nations”, the Armed Forces of the Philippines ( AFP ) spokesperson, Colonel Francel Margareth Padilla, said at the UTAK forum.  ,
She continued, highlighting the Philippine strategic elite’s anticipation of potential geopolitical disruptions and highlighting that” we are not dependent on one particular nation and we are expanding our strategic relationships with other like-minded powers who also share our interest in upholding a rules-based international order.”
In historical terms,  , Trump’s foreign policy approach is not unique and in many ways represents the latest iteration of the so-called” Jacksonian” tradition.  , According to historian H W Brands, this school of policy thought is,” ]t ] he most militant]tradition ] …their aim in fighting has been American victory, not the salvation of the world…. Their only concern is the fervent defense of American values and freedoms abroad.
It’s telling that Trump openly and frequently praises the early-19th century, swashbuckling president Andrew Jackson, whose portrait hung in Trump’s Oval Office, as ,” an amazing figure in American history — very unique]in ] so many ways”. Crucially, a host of Jacksonian figures have joined Trump’s second administration, with some occupying key positions in the Pentagon.
Andrew Byers, formerly an obscure nonresident fellow at Texas A&, M University, co-authored a piece in which he openly advocated for quid pro quo with China at the expense of the Philippines in the name of” strategic restraint” just months before his appointment as the Department of Defense’s new deputy assistant secretary for South and Southeast Asia.
” If Trump wins a second term, the intra-party policy debate between neoconservative primacists, China hawks, and ‘ America First ‘ conservative realists will be decided, provided that this time he hires people who agree with his views”, Byers wrote, predicting a major shift in American foreign policy under a second Trump administration.
In response, he has argued for the negotiation of a” cooperation spiral” with China, whereby the US unilaterally “removes US military forces or weapons systems from the Philippines in exchange for the [ Chinese Coast Guard ] executing fewer patrols ]in the South China Sea.”
Byers has been joined by other similar-minded individuals, including Michael Dimino, the newly appointed Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, who has publicly backed American strategic repression in critical theaters.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man seen by some as a” shadow president”, has been running parallel diplomacy with America’s adversaries in recent weeks. Through his Tesla automaker company, Musk, who is known for having comparatively sympathetic views toward Russia, has more importantly established important commercial ties with Beijing.
Top Filipino strategists, including former Admiral Rommel Ong, have publicly warned about a potential push for a Sino-American grand bargain, harming smaller allies like the Philippines.
” ]Musk ] has substantial investments in China so he might swing it the other way ]especially in the event of a crisis], that is my concern … we have to accept he has influence on policy”, he told the author.
Senior Filipino officials also maintain a cautious optimism about the Philippines ‘ strategic resilience and the bilateral alliance.
At the recent UTAK forum in Manila, National Security Council ( NSC ) spokesman Jonathan Malaya pointed out how the Philippines is a trustworthy and proactive partner capable of winning over even a transactionalist White House.” It may be too early for us to speculate,” he said.  ,
” We have shown to the US that we have been ramping up our defense spending ,]we have developed ] a very clear comprehensive archipelagic defense concept]to protect our waters ] … if we follow the logic]of Trump’s call for ] NATO to do its part … we are also doing the same”, he added, underscoring the positive trajectory in upgrading the bilateral alliance in recent years.
Malaya argued that bilateral defense cooperation won’t fundamentally deteriorate under the recent US State Department 90-day aid freeze, which, “my understanding is that it doesn’t cover defense cooperation, but primarily USAID and development-related projects.”
” All their projects here are aligned with Trump’s vision of making the US more secure”, he added, expecting more continuity than change under a second Trump presidency. At the same forum, Philippine Coast Guard Commodore Jay Tarriela expressed similar sentiments.
” He can say whatever he wants, but key cabinet members ]are reassuring ] and America is a mature democracy where institutions will ensure the US will remain as an anchor of a rules-based international order”, argued Tarriela, who has been at the forefront of Manila’s” Transparency Initiative” focused on exposing and countering China’s aggression in the South China Sea.
 ,” Our fight in the]South China Sea ] is for]anybody ] who wants to preserve a rules-based international order … that’s why many countries are working with us”, he added, underscoring the Philippines ‘ diverse network of partners in Europe and across the Indo-Pacific beyond America.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Rich Heydarian