Rift emerges in reshuffle of top brass

Navy, air force chiefs disagree with Prayut

Replacements have been proposed for soon-to-retire top commanders of the armed forces, with the air force and the navy reportedly standing their ground over the choices of their new chiefs, according to a senior military source.

(From left) Adung: Not favoured by Prayut; Panpakdee: Running for airforce chief.

The names were put forth at the annual military reshuffle meeting held yesterday that was convened by Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, who is also defence minister.

The meeting was joined by the deputy defence minister and the defence permanent secretary, as well as commanders-in-chief of the Royal Thai Army (RTA), Royal Thai Navy (RTN) and Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF).

This year’s military reshuffle will include appointments of three new chiefs of the armed forces and the defence forces commander, as the incumbents will retire at the end of next month, which marks the end of the current fiscal year.

(From left) Charoenchai: Problem-free; Songwit: Nominated with no issues

The meeting was previously scheduled for today, but Gen Prayut brought it forward as his successor, Srettha Thavisin, received royal command yesterday.

According to the source, the names of replacements for the armed forces leaders were discussed at the meeting with Gen Prayut and navy and air force chiefs, favouring different people for the top roles.

The nomination of Gen Songwit Noonpakdi as the new defence forces commander proceeded without a hitch. Gen Songwit is a deputy defence forces commander and has until 2025 to retire.

Also, the consideration of deputy army commander Gen Charoenchai Hintao as the new army chief was relatively problem-free. He is now serving as deputy army commander.

However, according to the source, Gen Prayut was not in total agreement with the names of the new air force and navy chiefs put on the table.

Adm Adung Paneiam has been nominated as the new navy chief, while ACM Panpakdee Pattanakul is in the running for the top post as the air force chief.

Navy chief Adm Choengchai Chomchoengpaet stood by his choice of Adm Adung as commander of the Royal Thai Fleet. However, Gen Prayut supports Adm Suwin Chaengyodsuk, assistant navy chief.

For the post of RTAF commander, incumbent chief ACM Alongkorn Wannarot wants assistant commander ACM Panpakdee Pattanakul to succeed him. However, Gen Prayut has deputy air force chief ACM Chanon Mungthanya in mind.

The source said the chiefs of the two armed forces were insistent on their choices.

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A pretty terrible ending for Wagner force’s bosses

Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dimitry Utkin, the co-founders of the Wagner Group reportedly were killed in a plane crash outside of Moscow.

Prigozhin and Utkin’s names were on the plane’s manifest before departure.

A Wagner group statement said the plane was shot down.

A plane wreckage is seen on fire following an alleged air acciden in the Tver region of Russia on Wednesday. Photo]: Ostorozhno Novosti

Reports say that two explosions were heard before the plane plummeted to earth.

There is video of the plane falling from the sky out of control. The video was taken by a civilian with a cellphone from her garden. It is likely she heard the explosions and rushed to see what was going on.

As the plane falls you can see a trail of smoke.

There is speculation that the plane, an Embraer 6000 with registration number RA-02795. had been in the air only a few minutes and was shot down. It had departed Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport and was heading to St. Petersburg. The area where it crashed is a few miles north of Moscow. The passenger manifest included Prigozhin and Utkin and seven others.

Lin Biao and Mao featured in a poster while LIn was still riding high. Photo: Chinese Propaganda Posters

Others say that Prigozhin used a different Embraer, a 650 model, which departed Moscow for Belarus. This story is circulating but so far at least even the Russian press is reporting Prigozhin was on the Embraer that crashed.

If the plane was shot down, the story harks back to the grisly end of Lin Biao, Mao Zedong’s erstwhile designated successor, in Mongolia on September 13, 1971.

The elimination of Prigozhin and Utkin puts the Wagner group in a situation where some leadership will need to be found. Wagner is active in Belarus and also in Africa. A day earlier, standing somewhere in the Sahel region of Africa, Prigozhin had announced a “new day” for Russia and Africa.

Prigozhin speaking on August 22, 2023, somewhere in the Sahel region. Photo: video grab / NBC

In a video Prigozhin said this on August 22nd:

““We are working. Temperatures are 100°F. Everything we love. The Wagner Group conducts reconnaissance and search missions. We make Russia even greater on all continents! We make Africa even more free. Justice and happiness for the African peoples. We are the nightmares for “ISIS”, “Al-Qaeda” and other terrorists.” “We hire real heroes and continue to fulfill the tasks that were set out for us and to fulfill the promises which we made that we could handle it.”

Yesterday Putin also fired Sergey Surovikin, Commander in Chief of Russia’s Aerospace Forces, who had been seconded to Prigozhin during the fighting in Bakhmut. It is uncertain what happened to Surovikin (he has not been seen for two months). The speculation is he was put under some form of house arrest and was interrogated over his role in the failed Wagner coup d’état. Just as the Wagner forces moved into Rostov on Don, challenging the army and Putin’s leadership, Surovikin recorded a video where he urged the Wagner forces to pull back and not carry out the operation. It was never clear if the video was a serious one, or if it was intended to give Surovikin himself an excuse should the Wagner ploy fail.

In 2018 Putin was asked in 2018 the following question:

Q. Are you able to forgive?

Putin answered: Yes, but not everything.

Q. What is it impossible to forgive?

Putin: Betrayal.

One would presume that if it is finally confirmed that Prigozhin and Utkin are dead, the Wagner operation will be taken over by officials friendly to the army and to Vladimir Putin. This may not be an easy task: the Wagnerites are fiercely independent and were closely tied to Prigozhin and Utkin.

It is, however, true that if the reports are confirmed Putin’s hold on the Russian presidency will be significantly enhanced.

Even so, for Prigozhin, Utkin and the others, this is a pretty terrible ending.

Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published on Weapons and Strategy, his Substack. Asia Times is republishing the article with permission.

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Phase 2 of Sino-Thai rail project set for cabinet scrutiny

Phase 2 of Sino-Thai rail project set for cabinet scrutiny
Transport Minister Saksayam Chidchob presided over the signing of three civil engineering work contracts for the Bangkok-Nong Khai high-speed train route in March 2021. (Photo: Apichart Jinakul)

The second phase of the Thai-Chinese high-speed train project is expected to go to the cabinet before year’s end, while the first phase is likely to start by 2026, says deputy government spokeswoman Rachada Dhnadirek.

Ms Rachada gave an update on the high-speed rail development scheme after the caretaker government on Wednesday reviewed the result of the 30th meeting of the joint committee on Thai-Chinese rail cooperation.

She said Thailand and China agreed to proceed with the second phase linking Nakhon Ratchasima with Nong Khai and both sides would meet again following a tripartite meeting on rail network development between Thailand, China and Laos.

The 356km second phase, estimated to cost 300 billion baht, features a 185km ground track and a 171km elevated track with five stations — Bua Yai, Ban Phai, Khon Kaen, Udon Thani, and Nong Khai.

Under the timeline, construction is expected to begin in 2024, with a total of 13 contracts to be awarded — 12 related to construction and one pertaining to the railroad signalling system. The project should be operational by 2028.

A depot with a light maintenance centre will be built in Nong Khai’s Natha district while the key maintenance centre will be in Ayutthaya’s Chiang Rak Noi. The State Railway of Thailand (SRT) is working on an environmental impact assessment (EIA).

Ms Rachada said a panel to coordinate on the network between Thailand, Laos and China was also set up as the Thai section in Nong Khai would be linked to Vientiane in Laos and Kunming in China’s southern Yunnan province.

The committee is expected to study traffic management on the rail bridge across the Mekong River pending construction of a new bridge, and test the strength of the bridge.

The new bridge, which is 30 metres away from the existing one, will be a joint project between the Thai and Lao governments. A feasibility study is being conducted and an initial report is expected to go to Laos this month.

She said the cabinet on Wednesday acknowledged progress of the first phase of the Thai-Chinese high-speed train project, which is expected to start in 2026. An institute on rail system research and development would be set up, she added.

The Transport Ministry has also proposed an agency to run the high-speed train system.

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Chiang Mai finds 2 mpox cases, dengue ‘outbreak’

Chiang Mai finds 2 mpox cases, dengue 'outbreak'
Songyot Khamchai, head of the communicable disease control unit at the Chiang Mai public health office (Photo: Panumet Tanraksa)

CHIANG MAI: Two monkeypox (mpox) cases have been found in the city while the Chiang Mai Provincial Public Health Office has warned that over 5,000 people in the provincial capital currently have dengue fever.

Songyot Khamchai, head of the communicable disease control unit at the Chiang Mai public health office, said yesterday the two confirmed mpox cases are reported to be homosexual patients.

The first case, a 31-year-old man whose name was withheld, said he recently had a one-night stand in Taiwan and became infected with mpox while abroad.

Mr Songyot said the case was past the incubation period so the man can no longer transmit the virus to others.

The second case, a 40-year-old man whose name was not given, was infected in another province, but his symptoms started to show while he was travelling in Chiang Mai.

Mr Songyot said the man had been sent to his hometown for quarantine.

Some 217 mpox cases have been recorded in Thailand to date, almost all males. As of Aug 15, 187 were Thai nationals.

According to the Department of Disease Control, there has only been one mpox death recorded in the country.

The dead man had been HIV-positive and had syphilis but never received treatment. He developed mpox symptoms on July 3 and died on Aug 11.

Mr Songyot said people with a recent history of close contact with high-risk groups or who have developed rashes or swollen lymph nodes can be treated at any hospital in Chiang Mai.

Meanwhile, the number of dengue cases is increasing.

Mr Songyot said Chiang Mai has seen almost 5,000 cases this year, compared to just 1,000 for the whole of 2022.

He said if the dengue cases in the city’s Muang district do not drop by the end of this month, the Chiang Mai Provincial Administration Organisation will label it a dengue outbreak area, which requires enforcement of the Communicable Diseases Act.

The five districts in the city with the most cases are Muang, Mae Ai, Fang, Chai Prakan and Mae Rim districts, Mr Songot added.

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31 called in over cyanide use

31 called in over cyanide use
Preechaya: Same supplier as Sararat

Police will summon 31 people, including actress Preechaya “Ice” Phongthananikorn, next week to acknowledge charges that they allegedly purchased cyanide for wrongfully intended purposes, according to deputy national police chief Pol Gen Surachate Hakparn.

The Department of Industrial Works (DIW) has filed reports with the Crime Suppression Division against 31 people who are believed to have traded and purchased cyanide illegally, in contravention of the Hazardous Substances Act, he said.

They include Ms Preechaya and the alleged serial killer Sararat “Aem Cyanide” Rangsiwuthaporn, who is accused of murdering 14 people as well as one attempted murder.

Ms Preechaya was said to have bought cyanide from the same source as Ms Sararat to use as a pesticide.

Charges related to the purchase of a chemical compound (cyanide) for wrongful use carry a maximum sentence of three years and a fine of up to 300,000 baht, or both, Pol Gen Surachate said.

“Officers at the Crime Suppression Division will summon all 31 people to acknowledge their charges, and they will conduct a probe to determine whether officials from the DIW were involved in any misconduct,” he said.

This follows the arrest of Ms Sararat, who is suspected of poisoning her victims with cyanide.

Officers have expanded their probe into the case and found that cyanide was imported, traded and purchased for wrongful purposes, leading to the DIW’s lawsuit.

In June, Pol Gen Surachate said Ms Sararat faces more than 75 charges — including premeditated murder, attempted murder, and theft causing death and forgery in 15 cases dating from 2015 to this year.

The 15 cases were spread over seven provinces — Nakhon Pathom, Samut Sakhon, Kanchanaburi, Phetchaburi, Ratchaburi, Udon Thani and Mukdahan.

Police wrapped up the investigation into Ms Sararat after questioning more than 900 witnesses over three months, he added.

Jullapong Thaveesri, the DIW’s director, said in May that 14 firms can legally import up to 80 tonnes of cyanide per year and individuals who used more than 100 kilogrammes over the past six months must report it to the DIW.

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PT to stick to digital  wallet plan

PT to stick to digital wallet plan
Srettha Thavisin of the Pheu Thai Party announced the party’s 10,000-baht digital wallet policy at a campaign rally in April. (Photo: Pattarapong Chatpattarasill)

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin on Wednesday insisted the Pheu Thai-led government will press ahead with the party’s 10,000 baht digital handout policy immediately after his cabinet is royally endorsed.

The pledge came after he was royally appointed as the country’s 30th prime minister.

“This is our main policy. We will go ahead with it after the cabinet is royally endorsed,” he said.

He said he did not see any apps stating Pheu Thai will scrap the policy going viral on the internet. Such apps have created confusion about the policy.

Many have cast doubt over the possibility of the new government implementing the Pheu Thai Party’s 10,000-baht digital money handout policy, as well as other key policies promised in the run-up to the May 14 election.

The digital currency giveaway could cost up to 560 billion baht, which would be diverted from an unspecified wing of the government, the Budget Bureau said on Wednesday.

As soon as the new government takes office, the bureau will issue a report detailing the fiscal situation of the country and call for more discussions with other relevant agencies, said bureau director Chalermphol Pensoot.

The bureau alone cannot presently give any assurances as the implementation of the flagship policy, he said. “Now the bureau is waiting to hear from the new government, but it is committed to supporting this policy as much as it can,” he said.

The report will give a clear picture of how much money the government has in hand and what it could do with it, he said. More reports are expected to follow.

The budget planning for the 2024 fiscal year will need to be adjusted, and budgets earmarked for certain projects which are now considered less urgent in the new government’s view will possibly have to be diverted to fund the digital money handout project, he said.

Even though the digital money handout has the potential to help stimulate the economy almost instantly, the implementation is likely to face intense scrutiny under 2018 legislation on financial and fiscal discipline, said Assoc Prof Thitiwut Boonyawongwiwat, Faculty of Political Science and Public Administration, Chiang Mai University.

“And if found guilty of spending the state budget for the wrong purpose under this law, the new prime minister and his government might end up losing their stability,” said Assoc Prof Thitiwut.

As for the minimum 600-baht daily wage and 25,000-baht starting monthly salary policies, the government couldn’t push to implement them without support from the private sector.

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Commentary: Thailand has a new PM but Pheu Thai will have a political price to pay for it

THAKSIN’S FUTURE

A crucial portfolio to watch is the justice ministry which oversees the criminal justice system, the powerful Department of Special Investigation and the Department of Corrections, which is responsible for keeping prisoners in custody.

Pheu Thai will want to ensure that Thaksin is kept safe and gets the necessary medical treatment while serving his sentence, and to deter political rivals from opening new cases that could end up extending his eight-year jail term.

On the other hand, the conservatives likely suspect that Pheu Thai could be tempted to meddle in the justice system to shorten Thaksin’s sentence and pave a way for his political rehabilitation.

All things considered, this is unlikely – at least in the next few months.

Pheu Thai will want to focus on consolidating power amid considerable public disenchantment. Mr Srettha will almost certainly come under pressure to do something to help Thaksin, but he may seek to dissuade and placate them through other means to preserve his job.

Deal or no deal, nobody should rule out Thaksin reasserting himself as a nexus of political power akin to the days of old. He has shown his enduring influence in Pheu Thai and the strength of his family’s personal brand.

Once the present economic travails subside, Pheu Thai might conceivably explore options to revive Thaksin’s clout. Pheu Thai will likely need it to combat public support for the MFP as a genuinely democratic force ahead of the 2028 election and Thaksin will be motivated to secure a bright political future for his daughter Paetongtarn.

Any misstep could still give the conservatives and the military a convenient pretext to call an abrupt end to this strange and unprecedented partnership.

Harrison Cheng is a Director in risk consultancy firm Control Risks.

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