Sure A Not

BANGKOK – Job opening: Prime Minister of Thailand. Must be able to end the kingdom’s cycle of coups by satisfying the demands of a putsch-prone, politically empowered military.

Must be able to seduce junta-appointed senators into supporting the next government, and continue capitalist Thailand’s delicate balancing of relations with the US and China.

Unfortunately for Pita Limjaroenrat – the May 14 election winner and frontrunner to become prime minister – the Election Commission on June 9 opened a “criminal case” against him for alleged election fraud, punishable by disqualification, 10 years in prison and a political ban for 20 years.

Pita is vulnerable to a legal intervention because his new Move Forward Party’s (MFP) nationwide election victory was buoyed by many idealistic, anti-military voters. That rang alarms throughout Thailand’s increasingly insecure army-led conservative establishment.

Put on the khaki uniform of a politically entrenched general, and it is easy to understand why you might regard Pita’s election win as a challenge.

Pita campaigned to strip army officers of political power and lucrative commercial enterprises, end conscription, dissolve the military-appointed 250-seat Senate, and dismantle the murky Internal Security Operations Command, created by the US Central Intelligence Agency during the mid-20th century’s anti-communist era.

“There certainly appears to be a conservative campaign in Thailand to diminish Pita’s popularity,” said Paul Chambers, a Naresuan University lecturer specializing in military and democratization in Asia.

“This is because Pita is vehemently opposed by the traditional forces of monarchy and military in Thailand,” Chambers said in an interview.

MFP’s victory gave it 151 seats, cheered by most who voted on May 14 for Parliament’s House of Representatives. Thailand’s other main opposition party, Peua Thai, placed second with 141 seats and has agreed to enter a coalition with MFP.

Many voters selected MFP as a clearer vote against the military’s rule, imprisonments of activists and students, media censorship and manipulation of politics since coups in 2006 and 2014. Chillingly for some generals, polls showed many conscripts voted MFP.

The Southeast Asian nation’s Covid-battered economy, severe pollution, official corruption, tangled bureaucracy and other woes also likely led to Pita’s victory. MFP clobbered Prime Minister Prayut’s new party, which scored poorly at fifth place in the elections.

But the battle to actually take power has just begun for the Harvard-trained, 42-year-old progressive politician. Pita is now wrestling with the junta’s 2017 constitution, rewritten after then-army chief General Prayut’s democracy-suspending 2014 coup.

That charter’s restrictions on elected politicians could stop Pita in his tracks when a full sitting of Parliament including the Senate meets in July or August to vote on who will be the kingdom’s next premier.

Many analysts predict the military-appointed Senate will ultimately block Pita from the premiership.

Pita is defending himself against charges of possibly violating an election law when he initially ran for Parliament in 2019. He has insisted the charges are politically motivated.

Under Section 151, it is illegal for a person to run for election in Parliament while knowing they are unqualified because of a conflict of interest, financial fraud or other reasons.

Pita’s eligibility rests on his recent handling of his late father’s 42,000 shares in a Bangkok-based media company, iTV, which Pita inherited in 2006.

To convict Pita, the Election Commission would need evidence he “was knowingly aware” that any candidate, who holds stock shares in a media company, is disqualified from running for Parliament.

“Nobody is playing dirty politics,” said Senator Seree Suwanpanon, responding to claims that the iTV case is intentionally being used to destroy Pita’s political career.

“Pita stumbled on his own feet, but blamed others for crossing his legs,” Senator Seree said.

“Heavier [political] weapons are being transported into this warzone, meaning the 151 anti-aircraft guns are just the beginning,” said ex-election commissioner Somchai Srisutthiyakorn, referring to election law Section 151 while aptly using a military analogy.

If the Election Commission convicts Pita of a criminal offense, it can forward the case to Bangkok’s Criminal Court for trial and possible punishment, which includes a potential 10-year prison penalty.

In a move widely perceived as clumsy, too late, and suspicious, Pita said last week that he recently sold the 42,000 iTV shares to his relatives to stop people from thinking he owned them, after the allegations about his role as the estate’s handler emerged.

The case twisted further on June 12 when a purported video surfaced of iTV’s shareholders, which allegedly does not match iTV’s transcript of what was said at a 2023 gathering describing its current status as a media company.

If Pita fails to become prime minister, angry protests of his supporters might spill onto Bangkok’s streets, according to widespread warnings and threats. But if Pita succeeds, he could face similarly disruptive street protests led by his pro-establishment opponents.

Grim warnings and veiled threats of urban violence, voiced by both sides, are also purportedly being used to pressure politicians and institutions into agreeing with various alleged backroom political deals.

In Thailand, crippled by more than a dozen coups since the 1930s, another putsch is always a possibility in turbulent times.

“Army Chief General Narongpan Jitkaewthae said, just days before the May 14 general election, that he cannot promise that the army will stay in the barracks if there is political turmoil,” wrote prominent political columnist Pravit Rojanaphruk.

“The only way to defeat yet another possible coup attempt is to have enough people on the streets willing to be imprisoned – 100,000 or more, at least,” Pravit wrote.

The commission’s investigation of Pita could drag on for months and a criminal court case could take years. That, in certain legal scenarios, may allow Prayut to stay on as caretaker prime minister until the case is settled.

“This is important because the next prime minister will oversee the selection of the new army, navy, air force, and supreme commanders and police commander – all of which must be confirmed by September 30,” Chambers noted.

Alternatively, Pita could become prime minister but later be disqualified if the case goes against him. If Pita does go down, it will be deja vu for Thailand.

A Constitutional Court in 2009 ousted then-prime minister Samak Sundaravej because of a conflict of interest when he hosted a TV cooking show.

“The real stumbling block that is likely to negate Mr Pita’s quest for the prime ministerial post is the senators, many of them active and retired military officers and civil servants who dread the Move Forward Party’s ‘radical’ policies,” wrote columnist and former Bangkok Post editor Veera Prateepchaikul on June 12.

A prime minister needs a coalition comprised of a combined majority of 376 of Parliament’s 500-seat House of Representatives, who were elected on May 14, plus the 250-seat junta-appointed Senate.

Pita said his eight-party coalition, including second-placing Peua Thai, has 312 House seats. No one knows how many senators, if any, will support his bid for the premiership.

The Senate could side with the army and combine its bloc with other House parties, including those in Prayut’s current ruling coalition, to form a possible minority government, which they have the numbers to do.

If they form a coalition totaling more than 376, likely prime ministers could include Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, an industrialist leading the popular, third-placing Bhum Jai Thai party.

Anutin’s fame swelled when he helped turn Thailand on to legalized cannabis last year by leading the push to delete it from a list of “narcotics.”

Anutin’s success attracted millions of dollars worth of Thai, US, European, and other commercial and retail investment, resulting in thousands of cannabis shops punctuating Thailand’s streets.

His BJT won 71 seats in the election, making it a prized bloc for forming any coalition. Anutin has offered to join any coalition which agrees to keep cannabis legal.

He has stayed away from Pita and others who want cannabis returned to the narcotics list, allowing narcs to hunt users who do not have prescriptions, and marijuana entrepreneurs who do not have medical-related licenses.

“Anutin’s Bhum Jai Thai was part of Prayut’s coalition government. He is acceptable to the Election Commission, Senate and all political parties, except for Move Forward party,” said academic Chambers.

If Anutin becomes prime minister, he “would provide civilian camouflage to the status quo of continuing monarchy-military dominance,” he said.

Thai society split in 2001 when royalists and the army feared the rising nouveau riche power of then-newly elected prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

The army toppled the populist leader in a 2006 coup. Over the years, courts convicted Thaksin of financial and other crimes, sentencing him to a total of 12 years in four cases, causing him to live in self-exile while maintaining certain sway over Peua Thai.

“Thaksin is no longer a terrifying political demon for conservatives, and they are more concerned about the rise to power of Pita and the Move Forward Party,” Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science lecturer at Bangkok’s Rangsit University, said in an interview.

As such, another leading contender to become prime minister is Peua Thai parliamentarian and property tycoon Srettha Thaweesin, who some see as a compromise candidate who wouldn’t overly irk or threaten the military or conservative establishment.

Thaksin’s youngest daughter, politically inexperienced Paethongtan Shinawatra, was tipped to be prime minister but her entitlement apparently weakened after her election failure to beat Pita, though she secured a seat.

Richard S Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based American foreign correspondent reporting from Asia since 1978. Excerpts from his two new nonfiction books, “Rituals. Killers. Wars. & Sex. — Tibet, India, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka & New York” and “Apocalyptic Tribes, Smugglers & Freaks” are available here

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