China’s GDP surprise can’t mask property mess
The unexpected rise in China’s gross domestic product ( GDP ) may provide more material for anthropologists than economists.
Spending on drinking and restaurants was one of the main use strengths, and it came at a time when some mainlanders may be excused for trying to drown their sorrows in the tumultuous real estate markets.
However, a strong dose of gravity is also necessary given the excitement surrounding the GDP’s 4.9 % increase in the three times that ended September year after year.
Despite strong retail sales, the data indicate that President Xi Jinping’s team has not yet made significant progress in its efforts to combat deflation and maintain the real estate market.
It hardly helps that economists like Louis Kuijs of S & amp and P Global Ratings point out price changes and government data revisions that could have raised third-quarter numbers. For instance, it is unclear how Beijing statisticians used producer price index calculations to account for poor business field prices.
Additionally, China announced the largest-ever decline in the value of regular exports, a move that may have been made to cover up commerce weakness as the world’s demand softened. The analytical adjustment makes annual comparisons seem more reliable because exercise is now being measured from a lower foundation.
The specifics of China’s most recent GDP data suggest that the state of Xi has more work to do to shorten GDP as investors worry about cooked books, whether intentionally or unintentionally. Additionally, the cash flows affecting island assets highlight the need to restore the property market, which can account for up to 30 % of GDP in prosperous times.
Economists are speculating about” Japanization” risks in Asia’s largest economy due to the intensifying drag in real estate and related default dramas. Property investment decreased 9.1 % year over year in the first nine months of 2023. Despite moves & nbsp’s decision to reduce the payment requirements for real estate purchases in the biggest cities in China in September, the contraction is speeding up.
In September, price drops in China’s new homes accelerated. Prices, excluding state-subsidized cover, decreased by 0.3 % in 70 towns measured starting in August.
According to Louise Loo, a China economist at Oxford Economics,” home measures remained extremely poor in September with no evidence of bottoming out.”
According to a recent report from S & amp, P’s credit analysts,” the low number of construction starts, an inventory overhang in lower-tier cities, and ever-tightening escrow restrictions will keep property sales depressed.”
Property designer Country Garden Holdings warned of impending doom this week amid rumors that it may have for the first time defaulted on dollar securities. According to economist Carlos Casanova of Union Bancaire Privée,” most of the financial downside may be traced again to contractionary house investment.” & nbsp,
China Evergrande Group is still having trouble restructuring its hundreds of billion dollars in onshore loan two years after it filed for bankruptcy. The trust of the home and the company is significantly hampered by deeper worries that developers lack the funds to finish their properties.
Economists predict that additional fiscal and monetary stimulus is on the method as a result. The business is” not out of the wilderness by any means ,” according to economist Stephen Innes, managing companion at SPI Asset Management, despite China’s second quarter figures exceeding expectations.
According to Innes, this progress portends a slight improvement in the Foreign market. To maintain steady progress, however, there are ongoing calls for more policy support due to worries about the recovery’s sustainability.
However, according to economist Zhang Zhiwei at Pinpoint Asset Management,” the advancement in fourth quarter financial data makes it less likely for the state to release signal in the fourth quarter, as the growth goal of 5 % is set to be achieved.”
The” financial recovery is still in its infancy ,” adds scientist Harry Murphy Cruise of Moody’s Analytics. The aspirin required to get over a property hangover may be provided directly to households, but this support seems increasingly doubtful.
The likelihood that China will reach its 5 % growth target this year is rising, at least statistically. UBS increased its forecast for mainland growth from 4.8 % to 5.2 % this week. JPMorgan raised its estimate from 5 % to 5.2 %.
However, UBS economists predict that the real estate business will only grow by 4.4 % in 2024. Additionally, the possibility of a Japan-like negative funk may make these numbers appear unduly upbeat.
Shareholders have been anticipating further price declines ever since July, when client rates turned negative for the first time since 2021. More new information only heightened concern about the negative consequences on consumer and business confidence.
According to economist Robert Carnell at ING Bank,” September’s inflation data remind & nbsp, us that, despite some recent firming in activity indicators, Chinese economic recovery remains challenged.”
That might entail more money coming in from the People’s Bank of China and sporadic financial outbursts from regional governments. To enhance the quality of national growth and lessen the frequency of boom / bust cycles, Xi’s team must, however, develop a stabler and more productive property sector.
According to Macquarie Group analyst Larry Hu,” home is the main concern.” According to Citigroup analyst Xiangrong Yu,” plan efforts may be stepped up moving forwards, especially for early next year, with focus on old-villain redevelopment, native debt resolution, financial expansion.”
The issue is that” at the moment, the economy is quite investment-heavy ,” according to Thomas Helbling, deputy director of the International Monetary Fund’s Asia-Pacific system.
The home problems and declining global demand were cited by the IMF as the two biggest obstacles looming over China in a recent report on the country. However, a development concept that promotes pointless loans is also true.
Beijing, according to Helbling, needs to level the playing field for private companies to engage with publicly traded companies. To promote intake and increase investments in knowledge and technology to increase efficiency, it must also create a robust social safety net, according to him. Changes to pensions are also essential to addressing China’s rapidly aging population.
There is a benefit to rise if you implement those changes, according to Helbling.
According to economist Betty Wang at Australia & amp, New Zealand Banking Group, immediate action is required to stabilize the property market and boost public trust. According to Wang, if more house buyers stop making payments, the pattern will threaten the financial system’s health and cause social problems in the midst of the current economic downturn.
When she tells Bloomberg that” when it comes to home, it’s about renewing trust on the ground ,” purchase director at Fidelity International, Catherine Yeung, speaks for some.
The wider Eastern region is also in immediate danger from China’s property issues. According to analyst Ed Parker at Fitch Ratings,” the emerging market rating outlook is healthy, but the decline in China’s nbsp, property & blb, market, and higher world bond yields are important downside risks.”
Parker points out that given the impact on global trade, commodity prices, and financial market conditions, the” slowdown in China’s & nbsp, property and nfspp, sector and downside risks to its GDP growth add to risks facing EM economies.”
A sudden halt to Chinese banks lending has also cut off a crucial source of funding for many EMs, and China’s differing perspectives from different creditors on debt restructuring are delaying the signing of agreements.
All of this is not taking place in a void. Foreign developers are increasingly in danger as US authorities bond yields reach 17-year peaks. as is the larger Asia place.
According to Fitch, from 8.3 % in 2022, the emerging market median general government interest-revenue ratio will rise to 9.5 % and 10.3 %, respectively, by 2023 and 2024. According to” Parkers ,” higher-for-longer US bond yields run the risk of a greater and more persistent increase in funding costs. The pressure on finances amounts is increasing due to higher interest payments.
According to Parker, the risk in the future is that” governments will need to tighten fiscal policy to run smaller primary deficits in order to stabilize government debt / GDP, other things equal.”
No matter how near it gets to 5 %, whether for real or just statistically, this will be as big a problem for China as anywhere else. The world’s second-largest economy may experience quick business for watering holes due to the weak real estate sector, which will be at the middle of it all.
Follow William Pesek on X, formerly Twitter, at @ WilliamPessp.
DBS PayLah! services back to normal after users report login issues
However, some people were harsh in their comments, some of which noted that the app’s impact prevented them from making payments.
” Never once more. One person claimed that he was unable to log in to pay for his cab fare.
How does we” get contactless” when our technology may keep up, asked another person who claimed that people were waiting behind him as he struggled to make payment?
After DBS’s disaster on next Saturday, I wanted to give them another chance, but I didn’t even wait a week and kept running into issues.
People were less essential, with some expressing gratitude to the lender for the information.
We can still use credit cards and digibank, so it’s not a big deal, according to one customer.
DBS and Citibank reported hours-long problems to their banking and payment service on Saturday evening. & nbsp,
Equinix, the supplier of data centers, claimed that a” technical problem” at one of its Singaporean centers caused some customers’ operations to be impacted.
It further stated that it is carrying out a” complete analysis” into the event.
On Thursday, the Singaporean Monetary Authority ( MAS ) announced that it had given DBS and Citibank the go-ahead to launch” a thorough investigation” and that, once the necessary information had been gathered, it would take the appropriate supervisory action.
US ban targets ASML after Huaweiâs chip advance
If Chinese buyers want to use deep ultraviolet ( DUV ) lithography equipment to produce high-end semiconductors rather than mid-level ones, ASML, the largest manufacturer of chip-making equipment in the world, will be prohibited from shipping it to them. & nbsp,
According to ASML Chief Executive Peter Wennick, the United States’ new export rule then allows for restrictions on the NXT: 1980Di tool, which is not subject to French export licensing regulations. The majority of other Chinese device manufacturers can continue to buy the DUV tool, he continued, adding that only a small number of Chinese factories may be impacted by the new rule. & nbsp,
After China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp( SMIC ) allegedly produced 7nm chips for Huawei using ASML DUV lithography and its own N 2 processing technology, the Netherlands government imposed the export ban. The Kirin 9000s device made its debut in Huawei’s Mate60 Pro smartphone in late August.
The NXT: 1980Di was intended to produce 38nm cards, but it can also offer more than 90 % when exposed to numerous risks. On the company’s website, ASML describes it as” a high – productivity, dual-stage immersion lithography tool.”
After the US announced new sanctions against Chinese chip manufacturers on Tuesday, ASML’s Nasdaq-listed shares dropped 4.17 % on October 18. & nbsp,
Although the US curbs may reduce ASML’s revenue to China by 10 to 15 %, Wennick predicted that require from Chinese device manufacturers would be solid. He claimed that in the third quarter, 46 % of ASML’s total sales were made up of supplies to China.
He said,” I don’t think we’ll see a peak this year, but I do believe there will be an enormous amount of demand for mature technology coming out of China.”
various devices
On June 30, the French authorities announced that ASML would need to submit an export license application for the shipment of its DUV printing techniques, including the NXT: 2000i and later soaking techniques. & nbsp,
As a result, Chinese device manufacturers may still be able to purchase NXT: 1980Di, an older model. The trade rule’s productive meeting was initially set for September 1 but was later moved to the conclusion of this year. & nbsp,
But after Huawei unveiled its Mate60 Pro on August 29, fresh disputes started to surface.
On October 4, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo declared that studies of Huawei’s device find were” very disturbing” and that her office needed more resources and tools to enforce the ban and close any gaps.
Finally, ASML was told to stop sending NXT: 1980Di to Chinese factories that planned to use it to produce high-end cards. & nbsp,
Although its output range may be constrained, some analysts predicted that the blacklisted SMIC and Huawei could potentially still supply NXT: 1980Di from the secondary marketplace to produce 7nm chips.
A Shanghai-based critic using the pen name Zhu Ting writes in an article that” printing is a pain point of China’s chip supply chain because it contains superior visual and higher precision parts that China may provide itself.” ” There is a long way to go before China is fully self-supply its chip-making technology.”
But, Zhu claimed that in anticipation of additional US restrictions, device manufacturers like SMIC and Huahong Grace Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. have taken the initiative to order local manufacturers in recent months.
Despite not producing printing, she claims that regional providers like Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. and Naura Technology Group Co Ltd have benefited from this pattern.
E – sporting enthusiasts
Advanced artificial intelligence ( AI ) chip exports are also prohibited, and 13 Chinese AI chip design firms and distributors have been sanctioned as part of the latest round of US export restrictions against China’s chip industry.
As their AI chips are allegedly used to create” weapons of mass destruction, advanced weapons systems, and high-tech surveillance applications that create natural security concerns ,” the US Commerce Department announced that it will add Beijing Biren Technology, Moore Thread Intelligent Technology and their related firms to its” Entity List.”
Moore Thread and Biren both stated that they vehemently disagreed with the US choice.
In a stock exchange processing on Tuesday, US chipmaker Nvidia announced that it would no longer be able to ship A800, H800s, L40S, and RTX 4090 bits to China. Its DGX and HGX techniques will also be covered by the new regulations, which may take effect in 30 days.
According to media reports, the new US export restrictions may even prevent AMD from selling the Instinct MI300 and Intel’s Habana Gaudi 2.
The US limits does encourage foreign buyers to look elsewhere, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association, which represents US device manufacturers.
According to a Financial Times report from August 8, Chinese tech behemoths Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent just ordered A800 bits from Nvidia valued at US$ 5 billion. & nbsp,
While the trade restrictions on the A800 and H800 chips was to be expected, China’s e-sports fans were shocked to learn that the sale of RTX 4090, one of their favorite graphics cards, was also prohibited. & nbsp,
Some retailers set their RTX4090 stock prices on Wednesday at 50, 000 renminbi($ 6, 837 ) each, down from the official estimate of about 13, 000.
Study: US to tighten its grip on China’s entry to Intelligence chips
At & nbsp, @ jeffpao3 is Jeff Pao’s Twitter account.
President Tharman spent over S$700,000 on election campaign, highest among candidates
SINGAPORE: According to candidate statements made public by the Elections Department( ELD ) on Friday, October 20, President Tharman Shanmugaratnam spent S$ 738, 717( US$ 540, 000 ) in his campaign for the presidency.
Among the three individuals, his vote costs was the highest. It cost Mr. Ng Kok Song, who spent Mho$ 312, 131, more than twice as much as it did Tan Kin Lian, S$ 71, 366.
For this presidential election, each candidate was permitted to invest up to Mho$ 812, 822.10.
According to ELD guidelines, each registered voter’s spending limit is & nbsp, S$ 600, 000, or 30 cents, whichever is greater. There were 2 709 and 407 voters.
Previous Senior Minister Mr. Tharman won by a landslide in the September 1 crown, garnering 70.4 percent of the vote. Tan Kin Lian received 13.88 percent of the ballot, while Mr. Ng received 15.72 percent.
THE Wealth AND HOW IT WAS SPENT
Non-online poll advertising, which cost up to S$ 481, 226, was Mr. Tharman’s highest expenses. This was primarily used for printing and posting posters as well as banner and advertisements.
His next-highest consumption was South$ 141, 865 for online election advertising, which also included spending on his campaign website, social media, and local leader interviews.
Additionally, Mr. Tharman spent S$ 300 on ELD’s expulsion of six plan posters, banners, and colors that broke election regulations.
One of the substances was displayed on a tree without the National Parks Board’s permission, and five were placed within 50 meters of polling places. They were taken out on August 31st, Cooling Off Day, and on September 1, Polling Day.
Mr. Tharman held an election meet at Pasir Panjang Power Station and spent S$ 8, 640 to rent the space, even though there were no gatherings this season.
The majority of expenses for the other two candidates also came from poll marketing.
Mr. Tan spent almost S$ 70,000 on offline marketing but only South$ 20 on online. The majority of the funds were used to print advertisements and pay for their labor and transportation.
According to TODAY, his overall spending is comparable to that of his first run for president in 2011, when he spent close to S$ 71,000.
Just Mr. Ng was chosen to spend more money on online marketing. He spent S$ 280,800 on it as opposed to substantially more than S$ 1,000 on offline marketing.
Mr. Ng stated that he would not post banners and posters while running his campaign because, due to a lack of the necessary manpower resources, it would be more responsible to do so.
Social media management and analysis, guest appearances on podcasts and talk shows, and film production were some of his net advertising expenses.
Ed Sheeran to hold Singapore concert on Feb 16, presale starts on Oct 27
Prepare to appearance flawless as you sing aloud at Ed Sheeran’s music on February 16, 2024. The Grammy Award-winning song is traveling to Singapore for a one-night performance at the National Stadium. Additionally, he is hosting English song Calum Scott.
Tickets for the music can be purchased at SingPost locations and through Ticketmaster for between Mho$ 88 and South$ 488.
Here’s some fantastic information if you registered for a UOB cards for Taylor Swift at the concert and didn’t cancel your membership afterwards. UOB users can take advantage of a tickets from 10am on October 27 through 9:59 do on Oct 29.
Members of the KrisFlyer team may attend a second tickets from 10 am to 9:59 am on October 31. KrisFlyer UOB credit and debit users will need to take in order to access this tickets, and SIA Group promotional messages will be sent to them according to the interests of their KrisSlyER account. On October 27, KrisFlyer may send them a special access code via internet. & nbsp,
Between October 20 and 25, members who do not have KrisFlyer UOB credit or debit cards is get the SIA Group’s life rewards app, Kris , and travel 150 miles to earn a special access code. Please be aware that only the first 110, 000 users may redeem.
Alternately, starting on October 30, those with a lot of extra miles can choose to use their miles to save Category 1 to 4 music cards. Cards in Categories 1 through 4 may be redeemed for 49, 000, 38, 00, 29, 000 and 19, 000 yards, respectively.
The general price will start on October 31 at 11 a.m.
Elvin Ng’s oral health tips and more at Let’s Talk About Health fair this weekend
On both times, the complimentary one-stop event will take place from 10 am to 9 pm. CLASS 95, LOVE 972, and YES 933 deejays will host workouts and stage performances.
Another health and wellness topics besides dental health are covered by a variety of experts, including eyecare advice, early treatment for bones and joints, paracetamol use, coping with hypersensitive skin, and TCM advice for post-cold care. And while you’re there, ask restaurant Anna Phua for some squeezing and cooking advice.
Customers who love discounts you get up to 30 % of on items that are only sold at the good. Additionally, you can use a minimal spend of S$ 30 to resurrect goodie bags for S$ 50 each. Visit movies for more details. sg / letstalkabouthealth
EVs may replace old govt vehicles
20 October 2023 at 09:47 PUBLISHED
According to a Government House source, the government intends to replace outdated government vehicles with electric vehicles( EVs ) in order to achieve the country’s objective of becoming carbon neutral by 2050.
According to the cause, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin sent a notice letter via the Secretariat of the Cabinet on Monday regarding the president’s EV assistance plan, including vehicle-changing methods.
The Finance Ministry and Energy Ministry are expected to collaborate with the Budget Bureau, the Office of the Council of State, and associated businesses on the EV purchasing process in order to replace some older cars whose useful lives are about to expire, per the purchase.
Other initiatives to promote the use of EVs in the common market were also part of the purchase. Among them was a directive for the Finance Ministry and Transport Ministry to develop EV public transportation systems, such as cars, cars, and e-tuks.
Additionally, it mandated that the Transport and Energy departments collaborate with related industries to build EV charging stations, as well as other assistance for system that satisfies the needs of specific electric users across the country.
End-of-life car removal and part recycling are two areas where the Transport Ministry is expected to collaborate with related industries to research and develop supporting policies for internal combustion engine car owners who want to convert their vehicle into an EV.
As part of its zero-emission vehicle encouragement policies, the order even stated that the government intends to help EV supply chains, particularly investment in the nation’s production of electric components. By 2030, the government wants to boost EV production by 30 % and turn the Asean area into a hotspot for the industry.
These EV-related laws were one of the president’s initiatives to maintain its commitment to carbon neutrality.
Thailand has pledged to the UN that it will achieve net-zero greenhouse gas ( GHG ) emissions by 2065 and carbon neutrality by the year 2050. The country also aimed to lead the Asean territory in carbon neutrality while relying primarily on sustainable development to fuel economic growth.
Commentary: Debate over COE system will go round in circles if we don’t accept reality that car ownership is exclusive
DISCUSSION OVER PRIVATIVE Get CARS
There is one more critique that has recently come to light, and it is yet another illustration of the inability to comprehend the fundamental elements of COE system.
The increase in demand and consequently the cost of COEs are attributed to personal use cars. They are held accountable because they are large corporations with the means to undercut regular people.
Although it may be accurate, this misses the bigger place.
Consider Grab and Gojek as businesses that divide the rights fees of the priciest cars in the world among the thousands of users. & nbsp,
You don’t want to pay the large Department price to drive, do you? You can do this with the help of personal rent cars.
Since you only have to pay for use, they are the most usage-based cars.
There should be even more secret get cars on the road, according to those who contend that Singapore should switch from an ownership-based to a usage based car policy, which I think is the right course of action.
I have a vehicle, ouch! It hurts a lot! but on vacation I give my daughter, who has a young child and another on the way, the tips. On vacation, when I rely on Grab and public transportation to get around, they require it more than I do.
I’ve always found personal rent cars to be practical and frequently dependable. They are a boon given the high existing rights charges of automobiles. & nbsp,
The COE plan: Is it ideal?
It’s not, but there isn’t any other option that works as well to reduce traffic congestion, which is a significant issue in some places.
When traveling is postponed, the moment spent in a mess is lost forever and is never recovered.
In contrast, the funds obtained from COE payments can be put to good use for the general public, such as by funding public transportation.
The scheme’s biggest flaw, in my opinion, is the fluctuating rates from month to month. & nbsp,
Policy should, in my opinion, be repetitive and secure. When the product or service hasn’t changed, it shouldn’e lead to price differences that are drastically different.
For instance, prices could drop as a result of the recently announced COE limit increases from November to January 2024.
However, it will only be a short-term revision and won’t change the long-lasting pattern. These arbitrary rate changes only increase the uncertainty of the market.
Alternatively, the government should work to balance out the limit amounts over a long period of time, like five times, in an effort to make charges more stable and predictable.
The COE statistics for the following five should be released every five years. This will give the business a clear indication that the statistics have been fixed and deter irrational bids.
Motorcyclists, who typically come from lower-income households, are one party I sympathize with. In equal terms, great COE prices hit them harder.
Since there is a normal cap on their numbers, I believe the officials should be more lenient with the COE limit for this group. Not all wants to ride a bicycle for different reasons, so it’s possible that raising the limit will help bring the cost down to more manageable amounts.
It is worthwhile to try and will significantly relieve low-income communities. & nbsp, The road ahead will likely be jam-packed with record-breaking price levels for the other categories. The following are: & nbsp, , SNP, BSP, NBP, A & NBPS,
Former newspaper editor Han Fook Kwang is a Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Warp to your childhood at the fan screening of the Digimon Adventure 02 reunion movie in Singapore
The film follows the main characters of the show( collectively known as the DigiDestined ) as they engage in one more battle as adults. It is set 10 years after the events of Digimon Adventure 2.
The following is the standard outline:
” It is 2012, ten years after the encounters between Odaiba and the Digital World.” Daisuke, the other DigiDestined, and their spouse Digimon are also connected by the same relationship even though they have taken separate paths.
Finally, out of nowhere, a huge Digitama appears in the sky above Tokyo Tower and declares,” Does anyone have companions.” Perhaps they all possess a Digimon. A young man named Lui Ohwada appears in front of Daisuke and his companions holding a broken Digivice as everyone watches. Lui has a second, unspoken hope that is hidden behind the DigiDestined’s delivery. “”
China weighs options to blunt US sanctions in a Taiwan conflict
Another academics argued in favor of a new economic alliance that was defend China from sanctions tit-for-tat. Ye Yan, an economist at China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Company, wrote in January that a coming” anti-sanction business system” that would enable member states to business discounted items hadContinue Reading