Gold’s divergence from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities at a record

Gold and TIPS have a similar portfolio function, to hedge against unexpected inflation or dollar depreciation. The trouble is that buying inflation insurance from the US federal government is like buying shipwreck insurance from the purser of the Titanic. After the massive expansion of US government debt during the COVID epidemic, TIPS and gold diverged. The divergence reached an all-time record July 20 (gold is $778 higher than the TIPS yield would predict). The price of disaster insurance against the US dollar keeps rising.

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Malawi racist videos: Chinese man convicted after BBC expose

Lu Ke

A Malawian court has convicted a Chinese national on multiple charges including trafficking and procuring children to take part in entertainment.

Lu Ke, also known as Susu, has been handed a 12-month prison sentence, which he has already served in police custody.

He has been ordered to leave the country within seven days and is barred from ever returning.

He was arrested last year following a BBC Africa Eye investigative report.

The report showed him filming Malawian children making personalised greeting videos, some of which included racist content.

The videos were being bought for up to $70 (£55) on Chinese social media and internet platforms.

When news of his offensive videos broke, he fled to neighbouring Zambia as Malawian authorities issued a warrant of arrest against him.

He was arrested and convicted of entering the country illegally and was then extradited to Malawi.

He was denied bail and has been in police custody until his sentencing on Thursday.

He faced 14 charges against him, including procurement of children for use of entertainment, child trafficking, illegal use of the internet and harmful social practices.

Lu Ke denied making derogatory videos.

In his defence, the court was told he had already paid 16m Malawian kwacha ($16,000; £12,500) to the government to compensate his victims and for social responsibility activities in the community.

He said he had made his videos in order to spread Chinese culture to the local community.

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India bans rice shipments to curb price rises

A farmer plants rice saplings at a water-logged rice field on the outskirts of Srinagar on June 19, 2023Getty Images

India has outlawed the export of non-basmati white rice in an attempt to ward off looming domestic price spikes.

Heavy rains have hurt crops in the country and rice prices have risen by more than 11% over the last 12 months.

Non-basmati white grain currently accounts for about a quarter of India’s rice exports, the Ministry of Consumer Affairs said as it announced the policy change.

Experts warned the move could push up global food prices.

Food supplies are already under pressure, after Russia’s withdrawal this week from a deal guaranteeing safe passage of Ukraine grain, including wheat.

India is the world’s biggest exporter of rice, accounting for more than 40% of global shipments. Non-basmati rice is mainly exported to countries in Asia and Africa.

Last year, the Indian government imposed a 20% export tax to try to discourage foreign sales. It has also limited wheat and sugar shipments.

But exporting abroad can be more lucrative for Indian farmers.

The government said that farmers would still be able to export other kinds of rice, including long-grain basmati, ensuring they “get the benefit of remunerative prices in the international market”.

The state will also consider requests to allow shipments to other countries based on food security needs, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade said.

The invasion of Ukraine last year caused global food prices to surge.

While those pressures have since eased at a global level, in India, bad weather has damaged crops, prompting the cost of many items – including tomatoes and onions – to rise sharply.

Vegetable prices jumped 12% from May to June, contributing to the rising cost of living. Inflation rose 4.8% last month, which was higher than expected as a result of the climbing food costs.

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Ukraine may be running out of people

A former top US military intelligence officer writes in a limited-circulation report: “We don’t know what the real numbers are on either side; casualties don’t really count, remaining soldiers count. This is, I think, the real source of worry for Ukraine. The Ukrainian economics minister noted that Ukraine is short 6 million working age adults. Estimates of the current actual population are around 30 million – or less. 
Just before the war started Ukraine had a plan to build an army of 400,000 with an additional 900,000 in reserves, based on a nominal population of 43 million. With a real population of 30 million – 6 million working age adults gone – those numbers become very difficult. Managing an army that constitutes several percentage points of the population is expensive and difficult. And Ukraine has already taken (my numbers) something on the order of 200,000 casualties (50,000 KIA and 150,000 WIA), maybe more.
Said differently, Ukraine may well be running out of people. If Russia has a 100,000 man – fresh – army ready to attack, this would be very difficult for Ukraine to blunt, and virtually impossible to maintain the already slowing offensive.”

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Reviving private investment key to China’s growth: economist Liu Yuanchun

The president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Liu Yuanchun, told “The Observer” (guancha.cn) July 20 that reviving private investment is the key to China’s economic recovery.

Private investment in China is notably focused on three key sectors. Firstly, the real estate market experienced a 7.9% year-on-year decline in national real estate development investment during the first half of the year, directly impacting overall private investment. Secondly, private investment is highly concentrated in the tertiary industry, although the current growth rate stands at a modest 1.6%, as compared to a potential 7%-8% under normal circumstances. Despite the service industry’s gradual recovery, it has not yet reached the stage of expansion, with some segments still facing challenges. The third sector, the traditional manufacturing industry, continues to struggle, except for a few high-end manufacturing industries.

From a structural standpoint, it becomes evident why private investment growth rates have declined. Moreover, private entrepreneurs, as a whole, lack confidence in future investment returns. Notably, different companies have varying concerns—larger private enterprises fret over safety issues, while smaller and medium-sized ones worry about the possibility of diminishing investment returns, leading to insufficient internal motivation for further investments.In addition to these challenges, certain state-adopted structural policies exhibit bias towards state-owned and large enterprises, while funding, credit allocation, and preferential policies for small and medium-sized enterprises, which constitute a significant market share, may be insufficient.

Recently, Premier Li Qiang and central ministries and commissions, including the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, have actively engaged private companies through business seminars and roundtables since July. The underlying message of these symposiums is two-fold. Firstly, they enable the central government to directly communicate policy orientations and strategic intentions, effectively bolstering the confidence of private enterprises in the present and future economic landscape. Secondly, the symposiums foster open communication regarding the implementation and efficacy of current support policies for private enterprises, allowing for a deeper understanding of the grassroots situation, paving the way for more effective policy strategies.

The significance of private enterprises in China’s economy is well-established, represented by the “five-six-seven-eight-nine” private economy. These enterprises contribute more than 50% of tax revenue, over 60% of GDP, more than 70% of technological innovation achievements, more than 80% of urban labor employment, and over 90% of the total number of enterprises. If private enterprises continue to face a downturn, even the prosperity of state-owned enterprises would struggle to uplift the overall economy. That underscores the importance of resolutely implementing the “two unwavering” principles, as advocated by the general secretary, and supporting the private economy to foster growth, resilience, and success.

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Teen jailed for 12 months for royal insult

Defendant was 16 when offence took place at 2020 protest

Teen jailed for 12 months for royal insult
A poster featuring hunger-striking lese-majeste protester Tantawan Tuatulanon is displayed outside the Supreme Court, where she and Orawan Phuphong staged a fast from Feb 24 to March 3 before being readmitted to hospital. (Photo: Apichart Jinakul)

A teenager has been sentenced to 12 months in prison for royal defamation, according to Thai Lawyers for Human Rights (TLHR).

The offence took place at a pro-democracy protest in 2020. The Bangkok Post has opted not to report the precise nature of the offence. The name of the 19-year-old was withheld by the court.

“The king is of a sacred status that should not be violated,” the court said in its judgement, according to TLHR.

The defendant, identified by TLHR as “Napasit”, was initially sentenced to three years in jail, “but as the defendant committed the crime when he was a minor aged 16, it was reduced by half to one year and six months. … And due to useful testimony the defendant gave, the sentence was reduced to 12 months”, the group said.

According to data from TLHR to June 30 this year, 1,916 people have been prosecuted for political participation and expression since the beginning of the Free Youth protests in July 2020. At least 252 are facing lese-majeste charges under Section 112 of the Criminal Code and 130 have been charged with sedition under Section 116.

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