Singapore corruption scandals a ‘setback’ says deputy PM

Lawrence Wong

Singapore’s government will work “doubly hard” to regain public trust after a spate of recent political scandals, its deputy PM tells the BBC.

Lawrence Wong acknowledged damage to the ruling party from a corruption probe and MPs’ extra-marital affairs.

He told the BBC’s Newsday programme: “The incidents are a setback for the ruling party and the government”.

But he dismissed criticism his government had not been transparent with the public or accountable.

“We have been upfront about the cases, investigated them thoroughly and [are determined to] have a full accounting to the public,” Mr Wong said.

Singapore prides itself on its reputation for clean governance. The city-state of five million is seen as a business and legal hub in Asia.

Its political leaders are also the best-paid in the world, with the highest government salaries.

However in recent weeks, the city-state’s residents have been rocked by cases involving a senior minister’s arrest in a corruption probe, as well as two lawmakers’ resignation over an extramarital affair.

Mr Wong acknowledged the public frustration over a perceived delay in revealing the arrests of Transport Minister S Iswaran and billionaire hotelier Ong Beng Seng – who are at the centre of a corruption probe. The minister has been released on bail and placed on leave.

Mr Wong said the watchdog had chosen to reveal the arrests three days after they had taken place due to “operational considerations”.

He reiterated the Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau’s standing as a completely independent organisation.

“I believe Singaporeans have full trust in the work of the CPIB. Throughout our history, the track record is clear and evidence for all to see. We have zero tolerance for corruption,” he said.

In June, the watchdog was also involved when two senior ministers were accused of improper access in the property market. They were cleared by the CPIB in a case review.

Political analysts say the events could dent support for the long-ruling People’s Action Party, which has been in power since 1959 and holds 83 of 93 seats in parliament.

Two of those seats are vacant after a pair of MPs, including the Speaker of the Parliament resigned over their extramarital affair.

Such impropriety scandals have stained the government’s reputation.

“To be clear, we set high standards for propriety and personal conduct. But in dealing with such cases, which are cases of human frailties, we are also very cognisant of the impact that our actions have on innocent parties, including families, especially the spouses and their children,” Mr Wong said.

Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong had said last week he found out about the affair between former Speaker of Parliament Tan Chuan-jin and fellow lawmaker Cheng Li Hui sometime in 2020, and that Mr Tan had resigned in February this year. This led Singaporeans to question why this information was only disclosed to the public recently.

The city-state faces a presidential election later this year – an executive role long aligned with the party in power. A general election for government must be held by November 2025.

Mr Wong told the BBC that he would “work doubly hard” to re-earn the trust of Singaporeans, but did not elaborate on how.

“If I do have a chance to take over [leadership of the country], I know that it’s not just about me taking over because I also have to earn that trust from Singaporeans themselves. I have to win their confidence and mandate to lead the country,” he said.

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Growing global demand for Singaporean artists’ works, but more needs to be done to draw youngsters into sector

However, art institutions here told CNA that buyer demand is not enough to draw young artists into art careers, with a more robust landscape to cultivate and assess talent needed instead.

AN AUDIENCE ABROAD

Local artist Faris Heizer is one such artist whose work is gaining traction overseas.

The raw brushstrokes in his evocative pieces portray the nitty gritty of everyday life in Singapore, and have found their audience halfway across the world.

“I’m slowly, hopefully, penetrating through the American market,” the 25-year-old artist told CNA.

Mr Heizer will get the chance to court that market even further, when he launches his first solo exhibition in Los Angeles in November, which he sees as a milestone in reaching his ultimate goal.

“My goal probably is just showing overseas, and slowly getting a bit of recognition here and there,” he said.

“When I go overseas, I intend to learn a little bit more, and just sort of absorb some of the stuff that they do, and just try to improve as an artist.”

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As global economy slows, SEA growth fights on

James Villafuerte remembers a few months ago when onions became a luxury in the Philippines. 

Rising inflation, the reopened economy and heavy storms combined to spike in demand and short-circuited supply, sending the price of the pungent vegetable soaring to a 14-year high of $12.8 (700 PHP) per kilogram. 

“[It got] to the extent that flight attendants were caught smuggling onions from other countries to bring into the Philippines because of the high price,” said the regional lead economist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Such anecdotes have become symbols of a global economy wracked with uncertainty, as the continuing war in Ukraine and increasingly urgent climate crisis fuel concerns over inflation and rising living costs. But a new report from ADB released this month and regional analysts are giving reasons for Southeast Asian optimism in the face of wider global challenges such as flagging growth numbers and rising inflation.

Workers push a trolley loaded with imported onions for delivery to stores in the Divisoria district of Manila on 26 January, 2023. Photo: Ted Aljibe/AFP

Released Wednesday, the Asian Development Outlook reported a “marginal” downgrade for Southeast Asia’s growth prospects – from 4.7% to 4.6% for 2023 and from 5.0% to 4.9% in 2024 – reflecting weaker global demand for manufactured exports. The latest edition of ADB’s flagship publication focuses on analyses and insights for individual and regional economies across Asia. 

Despite the foreboding outlook, experts still believe the region’s interconnectivity, resilient internal markets and the return of international travel will bolster Southeast Asia’s economies against the wider global challenges. Villafuerte noted that while growth projections have slowed, they still exceed those in other subregions and the global average. 

James Villafuerte, regional lead economist at the Asian Development Bank. Photo: supplied

“This is a region of 600  plus million people,” said Villafuerte. “Domestic demand remains intact and ‘revenge travel’ has really seen a huge leap in tourism, arrival and tourism related activities.” 

Villafuerte acknowledged that global headwinds from elevated prices had contributed to global inflation. On Tuesday, the Philippines central bank announced that policymakers were prepared to tighten monetary policy in view of continually rising inflation. 

His remarks came shortly after Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the UN’s major financial agency, voiced similar concerns at last week’s G20 summit. The IMF’s own growth downgrades were predicted at 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023, before settling at 3% in 2024.

Georgieva cautioned that economic activity is slowing, “especially in the manufacturing sector”, and called for a stronger “global financial safety net” to help support less-developed countries. But for now anyway, she said the broader economic system is withstanding the pressure. 

“The global economy has shown some resilience,” Georgieva stated. “Despite successive shocks in recent years and the rapid rise in interest rates, global growth – although anaemic by historical standards – remains firmly in positive territory, supported by strong labour markets and robust demand for services.” 

A history of interconnected trade 

Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo (centre) and Minister of Trade Zulkifli Hasan (centre left) visit a trade exhibition in Tangerang. Photo: Adek Berry/AFP

While international trade networks remain important, countries are also looking inwards to their own domestic economies. 

According to the ADB report, while global demand for manufactured goods slowed, domestic demand amongst Southeast Asian countries remained intact. Indonesia’s GDP expanded by 5.03% in the first quarter of this year, and economic growth remained steady, despite a slowing in exports. 

Strong national economies can help build on a history of intra-regional connectivity, according to Amanda Murphy, head of commercial banking at HSBC.  

Amanda Murphy, head of commercial banking at HSBC. Photo: supplied

“Southeast Asia has long been a bastion of free trade and sits at the crossroads of two of the world’s largest free trade agreements: the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP),” she told the Globe

These agreements, formed in 2018 and 2020 respectively, have strengthened bilateral relations within the Asia Pacific area, creating a network of trade avenues with the advantage of geographical proximity. There are signs this is already paying some dividends.

According to a recent HSBC survey, Murphy explained, over the next two years, Asia-Pacific corporations will place 24.4% of their supply chains in Southeast Asia, up from 21.4% in 2020.

“In particular, RCEP, with its tariff reductions and business-friendly rules of origin, is increasing the appeal of Southeast Asia as a manufacturing base, something more corporates are recognising,” she said.

China 

People look at models of the Intelligent Net-Zero container terminal at the Meijiang Convention and Exhibition Center during the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting of the New Champions in Tianjin. Photo: Wang Zhao/AFP

Within the Asia-Pacific region, Southeast Asian countries are planning their next steps with one eye on Beijing. Concerns over China’s slowing economy have caused ripples throughout international markets. 

“Weaker growth in the People’s Republic of China has actually weakened the demand for manufactured goods in the region,” said Villafuerte. However some Southeast Asian countries are benefiting from a “China+1” strategy, where global manufacturers look to move production out of China to diversify supply chains and mitigate their risk. 

“As businesses seek geographic diversification and adopt the ‘China+1’ strategy, Southeast Asia will continue to gain market share,” said Murphy. “Southeast Asia currently accounts for about 8% of global exports – there is every reason the share can increase.”

China’s exports in June fell to their lowest levels in three years, with a worse-than-expected 12.4% slump from the year before. On the other side of the world, the U.S. also saw a 2.7% export drop at the beginning of the year. 

But for Southeast Asia, as trade between superpowers slows, there may be an opportunity to enter new markets and build new relations. As the U.S. and the E.U. have faded as top destinations for Chinese export markets, the East Asian giant has diverged towards other destinations, including Southeast Asia. Chinese exports to ASEAN – the country’s largest trading partner by region – spiked by 20% in October. 

For ASEAN’s own export markets, building on critical sectors such as garment manufacturing will help strengthen the bloc’s overall economic outlook despite the global slow-down.

“Excepting [Myanmar], governments in the region are strongly committed to growth, which is fundamental. And this is export-led growth which is even better,” said Gregg Huff, professor of economic development and economic history in Southeast Asia at Oxford University. “Productivity increase is what enables real wages to increase. And if these increase it contributes to political stability.”

Domestic markets 

People walk in front of the DBS tower building in Singapore. Photo: Roslan Rahman/AFP

Private consumption was the main driver for economic growth, due to improved labour conditions and income across the region. Some demographics saw an increase in  disposable income, according to Singapore’s DBS Bank. 

But Elizabeth Huijin Pang, a DBS equity research analyst, was quick to stress at a press briefing that some sectors felt the hit of rising inflation and prices more than others. 

“There are still vulnerable groups who have seen the opposite [to our median customers],” she said. “Boomers saw expenses grow faster than income.”

Gig workers were another demographic spotlighted by the bank. DBS data revealed these informal workers to be Singapore’s most financially vulnerable group, with an expense-to-income ratio of 112%, almost double that of a DBS median customer. 

“[Gig workers should not be] lagging behind the rest of the population in terms of their longer-term needs,” said Koh Poh Koon, Singapore’s senior minister of state for manpower,  at a press conference last week. The remarks come shortly after the government’s agreement to accept recommendations from a workgroup for better representation for gig workers’ needs. 

New sectors and opportunities 

People walk past electric tricycles (e-trike) as the local government unit offers free ride in Manila on 6 March, 2023. Photo: Jam Sta Rosa/AFP

As well as focusing on vulnerable communities, shifts into new sectors are also a key part of Southeast Asia’s economic recovery. The region is one of the most vulnerable to climate change, and despite a recent decrease in green investments, a shift towards more sustainable business structures will likely be a key part of the region’s growth in its next economic era.

ADB has recently pledged $1 billion (54.4 billion PHP) towards the implementation of electric buses in Davao City, the Philippines’ largest road-based public transportation project.

“I think transforming our growth model into a more environmentally sensitive and green model of growth is important,” said Villafuerte. “When we analyse actually some of these green industries, we realise they also generate a substantial amount of jobs. … These will again be investment opportunities and also opportunities for employment.”

For Murphy, the rise of the regional digital economy is another key focus area for growth.

“Given that more than 75% of its population is online it’s not surprising that businesses are transforming their business models to cater to changing customer behaviour,” she said. 

The rise of real-time payments and recent initiatives to facilitate cross-border transactions, such as QR code payment agreements between Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines, are helping to boost the region’s economic connectivity. 

“When intra-Southeast Asia real-time payments become a reality, we can expect a jump in the velocity of transactions, whether they are business-to-business or business-to-consumer, which in turn will lead to greater economic activity in the region,” said Murphy. 

Transitioning through growing pains

As global crises continue, it is up to Southeast Asia’s private and public sectors to proactively plan their own paths forward. 

“Three long-term trends that businesses cannot overlook if they want to capture the opportunities in Southeast Asia are what I would call the 3Ts: trade, transition to net zero, and digital transformation,” said Murphy. 

Looking ahead to the future, Southeast Asian nations will have to take a proactive approach to adapt to these growing sectors. Moves are already being made at government level. Both Singapore and the Philippines both recently announced their first sovereign ESG (environmental, social and governance) bond and in April, Singaporean finance minister and Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong revealed the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s finance plan for Net-Zero. 

For Vilafuerte, looking forward involves looking back. Governments and market response to the Philippines’ onion inflation earlier this year was almost immediate and prices and supply regulated. 

“These are temporary shocks and there are natural stabilisers,” he said. “Higher prices and inflation are a sign of a strong recovery. So I think this is just an adjustment period.”

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Powerful Typhoon Doksuri lashes Philippines, threatens Taiwan, China

MANILA: At least one person died as powerful Typhoon Doksuri lashed the coastline of the northern Philippines with gale-force winds and torrential rain on Wednesday (Jul 26), bursting banks of rivers and leaving thousands without electricity.

The rain bands of Doksuri pounded coastal communities, including isolated villages tucked away in tropical forests. Many people had already been pulled to safety ahead of the storm, which brought winds of up to 175kmh. 

“We are being battered here,” Manual Mamba, governor of the northern corn-growing Cagayan province, told Reuters.

The storm, labelled as a super typhoon by China’s Meteorological Administration, is nearly 900km across and is expected to sustain strength as it continues its course towards Taiwan and the Chinese mainland.

The agency has already raised its storm alert to the second-highest tier and the manufacturing hub of Guangdong province warned of the worst storm in a decade.

Throughout July, record temperatures have caused havoc across the globe, sparking wildfires in the US and Mediterranean. At the other extreme, scientists say global warming will also make storms wetter, windier and more violent.

In the Philippines, at least one person drowned in the province of Rizal so far, the national disaster agency said.

More than 4,000 passengers were stranded at ports across the country after sea travel was suspended, the Philippine coast guard said.

As of 8am local time, Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau said in the past three hours the typhoon’s centre was close to hovering and at a standstill.

But China still expects its arrival early on Friday.

Doksuri would be second typhoon to make landfall in the Chinese mainland in less than two weeks after Talim slammed into Guangdong on Jul 17.

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More than 50 whales dead in ‘horrific’ stranding

More than 50 pilot whales have died and authorities are racing to save dozens more after a mass stranding on a beach in Western Australia.

The pod was first spotted about 100 metres off the coast at Cheynes Beach on Tuesday, local time, tightly clustered in what witnesses say was an unusual sight.

Once the whales began beaching themselves on the shore, wildlife authorities launched an emergency response effort in a bid to save them.

Some 51 whales died overnight on Tuesday, with authorities trying to return the surviving 46 to sea on Wednesday.

Dr Andrew Brownlow, director of the Scottish Marine Animal Stranding Scheme who recently responded to a similar incident on a Scottish beach, explains why an incident like this may have happened, and why rescuers are now fighting the clock.

Some of Australia’s worst mass strandings have involved pilot whales – 230 beached themselves on Tasmania’s coast in 2022, and 150 were stranded in Western Australia in 2018.

Video produced by Jordan Kelly-Linden

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Snap Insight: Foreign Minister Qin Gang’s abrupt removal is embarrassing for Beijing and Xi Jinping

PATH FOR “WOLF WARRIOR” DIPLOMACY

For China’s diplomacy, it has meant confusion, as the change in minister has seemed to seize the mechanisms of the ministry and led to other countries unable to advance their diplomatic goals. Mr Qin missed a key Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) foreign ministers’ meeting in Indonesia, for instance, and a host of bilateral and multilateral meetings that went with it.

Furthermore, Mr Qin’s ouster makes it less clear how China’s diplomats should present themselves: Should they be bold and brash as Mr Qin had been earlier in his career as a wolf warrior, or cautious and less combative to avoid a similar fate?

Even with the most-senior diplomat, Wang Yi, being a similarly confident and at times abrasive voice, lower-level Chinese foreign service employees keen for promotion are unlikely to want to stick their neck out right now.

Over time, Beijing will no doubt bring greater stability to the top of the ministry, installing another minister and moving on from Mr Qin’s short tenure. But for now, the abrupt way in which Mr Qin was kicked to the kerb, with his silent disappearance creating a vacuum for speculation, has just created turbulence and disorientation in China’s diplomacy. 

Christian Le Miere is a foreign policy adviser and the founder and managing director of Arcipel, a strategic advisory firm based in London.Continue Reading

First use: Oppenheimer, Hiroshima and Houtermans

As the film “Oppenheimer” arrives in American theaters, it is important to take a fresh look at the race to produce the atomic bomb and the choice of Hiroshima as its first target. There’s a lot more to learn that isn’t in the movie.

Hiroshima was struck by an 11-kiloton atomic bomb that had never been previously tested.  But the task to destroy Hiroshima was critical in stopping Japan’s atomic bomb program and either forcing Japan’s surrender or, if Japan did not surrender, protecting the huge planned US and allied amphibious attack on Japan.

I want to emphasize what you are reading is my own analysis of why Hiroshima was a critical, top priority target enabling the allied invasion of the Japanese mainland. It differs greatly from US explanations, which (when taken on balance) are nonsensical.

If Hiroshima was a civilian target selected by the US government, then it was a war crime to carry out the attack. If it was a strategic, military target, then the attack on the city was justifiable.

It is important to note that the US government was, during and after the war and until today, covering up the real truth about the atomic bomb threats of Germany and Japan. Indeed, General Douglas MacArthur, who ran the US occupation of Japan after the surrender, systematically covered up Japan’s atomic bomb program and Japan’s biological and chemical weapons program in China.

Even today questions are still asked why Hiroshima was chosen? Why did the United States not demonstrate the atomic bomb before actually using it on a Japanese city, followed by dropping a Plutonium-fueled bomb that was used against the Japanese city of Nagasaki.

After the Hiroshima blast, Japan’s top atomic scientists flew to Hiroshima, headed by Yoshio Nishina from the RIKEN institute. Japan was desperately short of aircraft but Nishina and his team of scientists were given top priority.

Japan had two atomic bomb programs, one under the aegis of the army centered at RIKEN called Ni-Go and the other, under the navy, known as the F-Go program, headed by Professor Bunsaku Arakatsu. Late in the war the navy program was far along.  The bombs were to be assembled in Korea.  Korea had become Japan’s main arsenal supplying the war effort.

Arakatsu and his accelerator at Kyoto Imperial University. Photo: Creative Commons

Japan’s top scientists quickly figured out that the bomb that struck Hiroshima was an atomic weapon. They measured residual radiation with Geiger counters. By assessing the blast patterns on the sides of partly standing buildings, they understood that the bomb was detonated above ground giving it maximum coverage over the target.

Hiroshima was destroyed by a uranium bomb called Little Boy. Testing it was not possible because there was not enough enriched uranium (U-235). Yet there was much greater confidence that the uranium bomb would work and was less complex than the plutonium implosion device, known as Fat Man, dropped a few days later on Nagasaki.  

The Little Boy bomb readied for delivery to the Army Air Force. Photo: Creative Commons

One of the big secrets of World War II is that both Germany and Japan were far along on atomic weapons development. For political reasons, the US did not want the American population to know just how dangerous atomic bomb development was to the soldiers fighting in Europe and in Asia.

Had the Germans been able to set off an atomic blast during the Battle of the Bulge, US and British forces would have been wiped out. Had Japan unleashed an atomic bomb on the US fleet, the US invasion force would have been destroyed.

Japan even had plans to launch an aircraft from a submarine carrying an atomic bomb. Japan was planning to destroy San Francisco and force the United States into peace negotiations favorable to Japan. Japan’s backup plan was to hit San Francisco with biological weapons launched by the same aircraft.

A very controversial book published in Germany in 2005 (Hitler’s Bomb, by Rainer Karlsch) claims that the Nazi regime set off a crude nuclear device at the military testing ground at Ohrdruf in southern Germany, then housing thousands of concentration camp inmates who became the bomb’s victims.

The US also was aware that Germany was working on long range bombers that could attack New York or Washington, DC. Called the Amerikabomber by the Germans, four different prototypes were built by different German aerospace companies (Messerschmidt, Junkers, Focke-Wulf, Heinkel, Horten Brothers), but none went into serial production. During the war, American cities either turned off the lights or used blackout curtains, fearing a Nazi air attack.

Boris Pash. Photo: Legion Media

Since the war, there has been a lot of mythology that the Germans were not that far along on a bomb and that Japan was even farther behind. The US-British Alsos Mission, headed by Boris Pash, which sent US and British scientists to Europe and Japan, reported that while both countries were working on atomic bombs, they were not even close to having them.

In my opinion the Alsos reports were deliberately misleading.  They never accounted for alleged atomic tests in Germany and in Korea, then considered part of Japan. (All of Korea had been annexed by Japan in 1910.)

I suggest the following proposition: Oppenheimer never agonized over the use of the atomic bomb on Japan. He made a show of agonizing after his clearances were suspended, but he did so mostly after all the critical decisions on the use of the bomb had been made. He strongly supported the decision to use the atomic bomb on Japan.

One clear proof: 155 Manhattan project atomic scientists in 1945 pushed for a demonstration of the bomb to convince Japan of the mortal danger they faced. The petition written by Leo Szilard  was sent to Oppenheimer in hopes he would sign it. He did not. Oppenheimer told Edward Teller that scientists had no place involving themselves in policy decisions. The petition was also sent to General Leslie Groves and others. It was supposed to be delivered to President Truman but Groves and others made sure that it was not.

Edward Teller (left) and Robert Oppenheimer, 1963. Photo: Creative Commons

The Houtermans warning

Fritz Houtermans was a leading atomic physicist who during the war was in Germany. He was regarded as a maverick but he was supported by key German scientists who bailed him out from a Gestapo jail (and tried, before that, to get him out of an NKVD jail in Russia). Houtermans never made any secret of the fact he was a communist.

Houtermans created the physical foundations for the development of a hydrogen bomb. He prepared a secret report in 1941 on the question of the initiation of a nuclear chain reaction, which was dispatched to important German nuclear physicists. In that 1941 treatise Houtermans predicted the possibility of plutonium fission and set out potential implications.

This put Houtermans well ahead of the storied Manhattan Project (the US atomic bomb program was officially conducted under the leadership of the so-called Manhattan Engineering Program, just as the British atomic bomb program was called the Tubes Alloy program). The US atomic  program did not get started until 1942.

The background of the Manhattan Project was a letter to President Roosevelt signed by Albert Einstein. The letter was drafted for Einstein by physicists Leo Szilard, Eugene Wigner and Edward Teller. That letter, now justifiably famous, informed Roosevelt about the danger of an atomic bomb.  Einstein signed the final typed version on August 2, 1939.  Szilard, Wigner and Teller all hailed from Hungary.  Houtermans called them the “men from Mars.”

In fact, the record showed that Houtermans in 1940 discussed his research findings with top German scientists. Houtermans was an important member of the German Uranverein (the Uranium Club or Project) and worked with Manfred Von Ardenne on plutonium chain reactions. After the war, Von Ardenne would go to the Soviet Union, where he helped the Russians develop their atomic weapons.

But Houtermans did more than work as a physicist. He was permitted to travel to a scientific meeting in Switzerland during the war. From there Houtermans sent a telegram to Eugene Wigner at the Met Lab in Chicago. The Met Lab was the home of the first atomic reactor (then called an atomic pile), which paved the way for the production of plutonium. The cable said, “Hurry Up, We are on the track.”  

Houtermans was well informed about developments in the United States, probably because the Nazis were spying on the Soviets who were spying on the Manhattan program.

Convergence of atomic scientists

The atomic scientists in the US and British programs in many cases were already refugees from the Nazi persecution of Jews in Europe who were closely connected to non-Jewish scientists who ended up working on the Nazi program. Even some of the scientists who were not Jewish – for example Enrico Fermi, whose wife, Laura Capon, was Jewish – needed to escape the racial laws being applied in Italy by the Mussolini fascist government.  

A similar fate applied to communists. Even though Fritz Houtermans was an active communist before the war, he was able to be saved by his well-placed German friends. 

Houtermans, of course, knew the scientists who left Germany and other European capitals under Nazi control. These scientists escaped the grip of the Nazis either because of their religious backgrounds or their political opposition to the Nazis or if their previous association with communist organizations.

Houtermans was not Jewish but his mother was, and under Jewish halachic law and German racial laws he would have been counted as a Jew. He never hid his Jewish background. When he was taunted for being Jewish he would reply, “When your ancestors were still living in the trees mine were already forging checks.”

There is another fascinating tie-in to Oppenheimer.  Both Oppenheimer and Houtermans were in love with a woman named Charlotte Riefenstahl. She was a physicist who received her doctorate in 1927, the same year as Oppenheimer and Houtermans. She married Houtermans and was his first wife and third wife. (Counting her twice, Houtermans was married four times.)

Fritz Houtermans and his wife Charlotte Riefenstahl and their baby. Photo: Creative Commons

Why Hiroshima? Enrichment!

Oppenheimer strongly supported the atomic bombing of Hiroshima. While later in life he suggested that the atomic bombing helped save American lives, he also confessed to the problem of conscience about using such a terrible weapon.

It is possible this remorse had much to do with his opposition to the hydrogen bomb, a bomb that Edward Teller called the “Super.” In place of the Super, Oppenheimer pushed for a larger number of small, tactical nuclear weapons.

Even so, he quickly made many enemies in official Washington, including Lewis Strauss, Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, who pushed to declare Oppenheimer disloyal, in part because of his ties to known communists and in part due to Oppenheimer’s opposition to the Super. Oppenheimer would lose that battle and his security clearances would be revoked.

The question of bombing Hiroshima still is with us today. Why would the US attack a peaceful city that was not a major hub of military activity when, instead, the US could have used the bomb against concentrations of Japanese military forces?

President Harry Truman said that Hiroshima was a military target. That Truman statement has echoed down through the years, since most historians argue that Hiroshima was not a military target and Hiroshima was never a target for US bombers during the war. 

Truman, once he became President, was getting a full intelligence dump on the war in Japan. (During his time as Vice President he had not known about the US atomic bomb program.)

The US was preparing for a major invasion of the largest Japanese island of Honshu, the location of Tokyo and the home of Japan’s emperor. This required a massive invasion fleet, both to bombard Japan’s defense installations and to bring allied troops ashore. But if Japan had atomic weapons the fleet could be destroyed in a Japanese attack.

From around 1943 the United States was secretly working to stop Japan’s atomic weapons program. Part of that effort was to interdict Japanese (later Italian) submarines transporting enriched uranium to Japan from Germany. Wherever possible, Japanese and Italian submarines carrying uranium were attacked by the navy. Some of them were sunk; others were taken into custody.

Even after the European war ended, a German submarine configured for transport, U-234, surrendered to US ships off the coast of Nova Scotia. It was carrying uranium and, according to a German submarine crew-member witness, Robert Oppenheimer flew to Portsmouth where the sub had been taken. He examined the cargo and had its uranium contents, 560 kg, sent to Washington and then on to Oak Ridge, where Ernest Lawrence’s calutrons were enriching uranium for bomb making. A calutron is a specialized type of cyclotron developed at Lawrence’s Berkely California laboratory

U-234 surrendering. Crewmen of Sutton in foreground with Kapitänleutnant Johann-Heinrich Fehler (left-hand white cap). Photo: Creative Commons

At Oak Ridge there were two calutron systems.  The first, known as the Racetrack, was a series of linked calutrons that did the initial uranium enrichment, tapping out at 20% enrichment. The second group of B-series calutrons took the product scraped from the Racetrack and removed impurities, bringing the level of enrichment to 90%, the level needed for a uranium-fueled atomic bomb.

Around 100kg of 90% enriched uranium is enough for an atomic bomb.

US officials have always said that the Japanese submarines were transporting uranium oxide, not enriched uranium. But there would have been no need to ship uranium oxide to Oak Ridge unless it could be fed into Lawrence’s calutrons.

Japan had no need for unrefined uranium. Korea had plenty of uranium ore and Japan had built specialized facilities for bomb making at Konan (then known as Hamhong). The material on U-234 was uranium metal and was partially enriched. Japan had the capability of further enrichment, most likely using advanced centrifuges built by Sumitomo. The centrifuges have never been found. Neither has the other infrastructure for enriching uranium been found.

The uranium material on U-234 was in special radiation-protected containers stored in the outer hull of the submarine so as not to endanger the crew. Each of the containers had “U-235” painted on it by two senior Japanese military officers who sailed on the submarine.

Allegedly before U-234 surrendered to the US Navy, the two Japanese officers committed suicide by taking poison, a very untraditional way of carrying out Seppuku. There were suicide notes to their families, written in German (probably because no member of the U-234 crew could write in Japanese, since the notes were clearly forgeries). They were buried at sea.

Truman and Oppenheimer may have realized that Japan’s uranium enrichment capability was centered at Hiroshima. One of the compelling reasons Nishina and his team hurried to Hiroshima was to find out if any of Japan’s uranium enrichment infrastructure survived.

From Hiroshima the final bomb grade U-235 was shipped to Korea, where more than half of Japan’s atomic weapons program was based.

David Snell’s reporting

In 1946 an enterprising reporter from the Atlanta Constitution, David Snell, based on a credible Japanese source, revealed that the Japanese had already tested two small atomic bombs, one in Mongolia and the other off the eastern coast of Korea. Called the Genzai Bakudan (Greatest Fighter), it was detonated on a small island in the Sea of Japan on August 12, 1945.  Three weeks earlier, on July 16, 1945, the US tested the “Gadget” –a plutonium bomb.    It is not clear that Japan knew about the Trinity test of the atomic bomb.

Snell’s article was denounced by US authorities. However, it was never disproven.  

Destroying Hiroshima may have put an end to Japan’s nuclear bomb program by destroying its uranium enrichment infrastructure.

There is an entire literature about the US choice of targets and the somewhat “accidental” selection of Hiroshima. I would think that the story was partly fabricated to hide the real objective of eliminating Japan’s bomb making potential.

Oppenheimer, privy to the most sensitive atomic intelligence, a visitor to Portsmouth where U-235 was berthed, certainly acted on behalf of the nation in using the atomic bomb to eradicate a real threat.  There was no need to feel guilty over it.

Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published on Weapons and Strategy, his Substack. Asia Times is republishing it with permission.           

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Travis King: How the US negotiates with North Korea

Travis King (wearing black shirt and black cap) on the border between the two Koreas, 18 July 2023Reuters

The fate of Travis King, a US soldier who crossed into North Korea, remains unknown and experts say the US is at a critical stage to try and negotiate his return home.

The challenge is America has never had an official diplomatic relationship with North Korea.

As a result, the US relies on a network of backchannels to negotiate the return of citizens detained in the country.

It is believed the 23- year-old soldier is being detained and questioned by North Korean authorities.

Private 2nd Class King was last seen a week ago running across the demilitarised zone separating North and South Korea. Tensions have since escalated in the region, with North Korea firing two ballistic missiles into the sea late Monday after a US nuclear-powered submarine was stationed in the South.

“All sides are trying to understand what happened and what to do,” said Mickey Bergman, executive director of the Richardson Center for Global Diplomacy.

Mr Bergman, who has spent nearly 20 years negotiating to return US citizens from hostile nations, said the best chance at releasing a prisoner is right after they are detained. This is when they are likely being interrogated by the country’s officials but before they have been charged with a crime, like spying.

It’s in that time before things become official that negotiators can best appeal to people’s humanity, Mr Bergman said.

“I think there’s a misconception about what negotiations are,” he said.

“If we pound our chests, and flip tables, and demand that the evil North Koreans return our soldier, we are likely going to cause them to dig in.”

Here’s how the US has previously negotiated for American citizen’s return.

The New York Channel

Because the United States has never officially held diplomatic ties with North Korea, during a detainee crisis, Sweden has served as an intermediary from their embassy in Pyongyang and has helped to relay communications to North Korean officials.

But there are also backchannels. North Korea maintains a mission at the United Nations in New York. In times of crisis, the mission – dubbed the New York Channel – has become an avenue for officials for both countries to hold talks.

Robert King

Getty Images

For years, Robert King was one of the first people who received a call when an American was captured by North Korea. As the former special envoy for North Korean Human Rights at the US State Department, the ambassador has helped negotiate for the release of multiple detainees including student Otto Warmbier and American missionary Kenneth Bae.

After 17 months in captivity, US college student Otto Warmbier was released from North Korean detention in 2017 in a comatose state. He returned to the United States with extensive brain damage and died days after reuniting with his family.

Otto Warmbier’s death sparked international outrage and his family has levelled allegations of abuse and torture against the North Koreans.

After a brief period of diplomacy under the Trump administration, Mr King said renewed political tensions between the two countries often colour negotiations, making detainees a pawn in wider geopolitical fights.

“[The North Koreans] see this as, ‘how do we use this opportunity to make the US look bad?’ And whatever happens it’s not going to be a happy outcome,” Mr King said.

Fringe diplomacy

For nearly 20 years, Mr Bergman has worked alongside former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson to secure the release of prisoners from countries hostile to the United States.

Although the Richardson Center is not involved in the Travis King case, Mr Bergman said in his experience, when it comes to North Korea, there isn’t a playbook for negotiations.

Instead, he said, it is best to approach tense negotiations through what he calls “fringe diplomacy”.

US non-profits and humanitarian agencies have provided aid to North Koreans for decades. When official channels stall, these non-governmental backchannels are often called upon to negotiate on behalf of a detainee’s family.

An NGO’s separation from the US government is a benefit, Mr Bergman said, because it allows negotiations to focus solely on the wellbeing and return of the detainee, instead of global politics.

“People can talk to us about policy issues but there’s nothing we can do about that,” he said. “We are much more able to insulate the issue and come up with pathways to resolve some of these situations.”

Mr Bergman said the world often focuses on the moment of “intervention,” when a political prisoner is rescued and returned home. But that moment, he said, is not possible without years of meaningful engagement.

“You have to build relationships so that when there is a crisis, you’re not starting from scratch.”

Complicating factors

But the Covid pandemic has made both of these avenues of negotiation more challenging.

North Korea completely closed its borders during the pandemic and Mr Bergman said it is unclear if the Swedish Embassy in Pyongyang has returned to full capacity.

Complicating matters further, after a brief period of attempted diplomacy, the Trump administration imposed a travel ban to North Korea, rendering US passports and visas invalid.

The ban has remained in place under the Biden administration and has effectively ended humanitarian avenues for engagement, Mr Bergman said.

“North Korea is the only country in the world where there’s a travel ban, that it’s illegal for Americans to travel,” he said. “The North Koreans see that as an insult.”

Otto Warmbier

Reuters

Mr Bergman, who was involved in the negotiations for Warmbier’s release, said he believes the international blowback over Otto Warmbier’s death has shifted the North Korean perspective on political detainees, and the country may be more amenable to compromise.

“After dealing with the Otto Warmbier negotiations, and the very tragic outcome, I believe that the North Koreans have chosen not play in the game of political prisoners anymore,” he said.

But whether that means US army private Travis King will have a speedy release, remains to be seen, he said.

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