Vilnius NATO summit will likely be a flop
Any decision on NATO membership is between the 31 Allies and aspirant country. And so, in this case, when it comes to Ukraine, we have been discussing with our NATO Allies and Ukraine how we can collectively support Ukraine’s aspiration for Euro-Atlantic integration.
Ukraine would have to make reforms to meet the same standards as any NATO country before they join. President Biden thinks that Ukraine can do that.
US President Joe Biden will spend three days in Europe at the NATO Summit in Vilnius scheduled for 11 and 12 July. The main topic will be Ukraine and where to go from here.
Ukraine is pushing for either immediate NATO membership or actionable security guarantees from NATO. But Ukraine’s position is undermined by the failure of the counteroffensive against Russia, and the failure of its attempts – via sabotage, assassination and lethal drones aimed at the Kremlin – to destabilize the Putin government. Now Ukraine is saying it needs NATO air power to be able to win its war.
It will be very hard to get a NATO consensus on the road ahead, no matter how much arm twisting Washington uses on its European partners.
Europe is already in a recession thanks to the Covid catastrophe, the sanctions on Russian energy and the huge unemployment levels, which impact recent immigrants. The result of all that is social unrest across Europe. France is already experiencing a serious revolt, and while the French situation has eased in the past few days, it will come back.
Meanwhile, the German government coalition is steadily losing popular support and the AfD, Germany’s right-wing party, is now the second most popular party in the country. Olaf Scholz and his coalition partners don’t know what to do: they may try banning AfD as a last ditch effort. Italy is also far from out of the mess.
The country has a conservative leadership but is being battered by unprecedented waves of immigrants coming from the Middle East.
Europe is out of money and out of bullets. It is not in a mood to give a blank check to Ukraine or risk a bigger war that might spread into Europe. President Biden will have a hard time trying to squeeze more from the Europeans.
Biden knows that he cannot unilaterally use US forces, especially airpower, without airbases and supply centers in Europe. Right now, Washington has a free hand because US warplanes are not bombing Russian positions in Ukraine. Bombing them, however, would force a strong European reaction and shatter NATO.
Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky has been pressuring Washington for advanced warplanes, saying airpower would make it possible for Ukraine to win. But the only practical way forward with that over the next year is to operate from bases outside of Ukraine using US and possibly other NATO aircraft.
This would certainly mean war in Europe and the currently ruling governments in Europe either would have to say no or face being removed by force. It is, therefore, an unlikely, if highly dangerous, scenario.
Washington has already signaled that it has been unable to convince its partners about Ukrainian NATO membership. It is likely that behind the scenes Washington is trying to craft some sort of security guarantee for Ukraine, but any meaningful guarantee is probably a bridge too far.
Russia is also restive after the Yevgeny Prigozhin-led coup attempt. Putin wants a military victory soon, as does the Russian army, which was badly stressed by the Prigozhin accusations.
Holding the line against a Ukrainian counteroffensive is not really a victory for the Russians since their image remains tarnished at home. It is reasonable to expect, therefore, that once the Ukrainian losses mount up high enough in the coming weeks, the Russian army will make dramatic offensive moves against Ukraine.
The big unknown is what the Russian army will do: Will it launch a big attack on Kiev, Kharkiv or Odesa? If, after Vilnius, Moscow sees Zelensky without any expectation of NATO coming to save him, it will exploit the situation very quickly.
Part of the Western foundation for Ukraine’s offensive was the introduction of modern technology on the battlefield, represented especially by the appearance of the Leopard tank. Unfortunately for NATO, the Leopard tanks have not saved the day for Ukraine.
So far, between 16 and 20 Leopards have been knocked out on the battlefield along with lots of other NATO-supplied armor, including infantry fighting vehicles such as the US Bradley and mine clearing systems like the Finnish Leopard 2R HMBV and the German Wisent 1.
The Leopard and US Abrams main battle tank form the armor backbone of NATO’s land defense.
While the US and its allies have superior airpower, they have sparse and inadequate air defenses compared with what Russia can bring forward. This means that a land defense needs to stand up to Russian attack helicopters armed with missiles, lethal drones and air-launched mines in addition to artillery.
The failure of the Leopard in Ukraine represents a huge challenge for NATO and signals that the current NATO “tripwire” strategy may not work.
Under the tripwire paradigm, the idea is that an initial Russian attack (most likely in the Baltic states because Russian forces are very close to Estonia and Latvia) can be held for some days while the US ships heavy forces into Europe. But if the tripwire is illusory, then NATO is exposed to rapid Russian advances in Europe should an attack be launched.
The bottom line is that NATO’s strategy needs revision or, alternatively, that the Europeans and Russians need to work out a mutually acceptable security arrangement. It is exactly such an arrangement that Russia proposed to NATO in December 2021. It was rejected without discussion.
Now the ammunition cupboard is bare, even in the United States. The Russians are learning how to counter advanced Western systems, a negative development for NATO’s security. It could not be a worse time to risk Europe’s security on the basis of being able to stop a Russian attack.
It may be easy for British politicians to scream they want NATO to fight in Ukraine, but it isn’t London that is likely the first target of Russia’s missiles. Cracks in the alliance are emerging more quickly than anticipated, and Europe’s weak governments are in trouble.
It will be interesting to see how Vilnius plays out. It will certainly be a propagandistic show, but there is a good chance Vilnius will be a flop.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published on his Substack, Weapons and Strategy. Asia Times is republishing it with permission.
China bans some Japanese food imports over Fukushima water release
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South Korea respects IAEA review of Japan’s Fukushima wastewater plan
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China aims to sap Taiwan morale with ‘escape plan’ misinformation: Sources
TAIPEI: China has launched a misinformation campaign that includes news reports Taiwan’s president has an “escape plan” in the event of a Chinese invasion, aiming to sap morale as Beijing presses the island to accept its sovereignty, Taiwan officials said. Taiwan is on high alert for what it sees asContinue Reading
Australians smash Tina Turner dancing world record
Thousands have come together to dance to the song ‘Nutbush City Limits’ in tribute to late singer Tina Turner, at Australia’s most remote music festival, the Big Red Bash.
5,838 participants danced for five minutes to set a new record for the largest Nutbush dance in the world, as adjudicated by the Australian Book of Records.
The ‘Nutbush’ has been dubbed Australia’s unofficial national dance and is often performed in Australian schools, weddings and gatherings.
South China Sea: Blackpink Vietnam concert in trouble over China map
Getty ImagesBlackpink’s concert organisers in Vietnam has apologised for their website displaying a map that Beijing uses to justify its vast claims in the South China Sea.
The Korean pop sensations are due to perform two concerts there this month.
Vietnam’s foreign ministry spokesman called the map on promoter iME’s website a “hot button issue”, adding that it was “unacceptable”.
The Beijing-headquartered company said it would replace the images.
The controversy with Blackpink comes days after Vietnam banned the Barbie movie over the same issue.
Eagle-eyed internet users in Vietnam spotted the map on the website.
Vietnam is among a number of countries that contest China’s claim to almost all of the South China Sea.
The nine-dash line is used in Chinese maps of the South China Sea to show its territorial claims.
Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Pham Thu Hang said that the “promotion and usage of products or publications featuring the ‘nine-dash line’ in Vietnam is a violation of Vietnam’s laws and is unacceptable”.
Vietnam’s culture ministry said it was investigating the incident.
In its apology, iME said the map on its website “does not represent the territory of any country and we are aware of respecting the sovereignty and culture of all the countries”.
The company’s CEO, Brian Chow called the incident an “unfortunate misunderstanding”.
Live performances by big name pop acts like Blackpink are rare in Vietnam.
In 2016 an international tribunal in The Hague ruled against Chinese claims in the South China Sea, but Beijing did not recognise the judgement.
Instead it has built artificial islands over previously uninhabited reefs and outcrops.
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Firms tout ‘successful’ upcycling ideas
Three entrepreneurs shed light on what made their upcycling ideas successful during a third panel discussion at the Sustainability Expo (SX) Talk Series entitled “The Way to Smart Upcycling”.
According to online sources, “Upcycling is the process of transforming by-products, waste materials or unwanted products into new materials or products perceived to be of greater quality.”
Theerachai Suphamethee, Design Director and Co-Founder of Qualy, said during the seminar his products use the concept of “Design for a Sustainable World,” such as the so-called phra sati (mindful) amulets, made from recyclables and organic waste. “I think it might be better for all if we change from how to make a business sustainable to how to make a sustainable business,” he said.
Yuttana Anothaisintawee, founder of The ReMaker, a company that produces leatherwork using second-hand materials, said fast fashion and seasonal fashion trends worsen the waste situation in the fashion industry. “Our customers of upcycling products understand that they pay not only for goods they like but also for a better environment in the future.”
Pathinya Arree, coordinator of Trash Hero Pattani, said its volunteer work led to the establishment of Tlejourns, upcycled sandals made from used parts collected from the sea and beaches.
He said in the past four months, the group was able to collect more than 80,000kg of waste floating in the sea and the beaches of Satun. “We will close our business when there is no waste left for us to collect.”
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Get your fitness assessed by Zoe Tay, cook like Li Nanxing and more at Healthier SG roadshows
If you haven’t had much luck motivating your grandparents or parents to pay attention to their health and diet, hearing it from their favourite Mediacorp artiste or celebrity chef in person might be the nudge they need.
Starting from Saturday (Jul 8) and running until November, celebrities such as Zoe Tay, Xiang Yun, Chen Hanwei, Marcus Chin, Najip Ali, Nity Baizura, Aura Shai, AB Shaik, Rafi and more will be showing up at 17 various roadshows taking place across the island.
It’s all part of Healthier SG, a nationwide initiative by the Ministry of Health (MOH) to help those aged 60 and above take steps towards better health and quality of life in the years to come.
The roadshows will feature the four-zone STEP experience, which is an acronym derived from Healthier SG’s four maxims: “Step” into the Healthier SG journey; “Take” time to stay active; “Eat” well, live well; and “Participate” in community activities.
Have your parents’ fitness assessed by Zoe, do piloxing with everyone’s favourite ajoomma Jin Yin Ji, take part in a nutrition quiz with director Jack Neo, or simply get moving with Mike Kasem and Chen Liping. Learning about the Healthy Plate can also be more palatable for your folks when it’s their favourite radio DJs Pan Jia Biao and Anand K dishing out the nutrition information.
Speaking of food, if the seniors at home enjoy watching culinary competitions on TV such as the returning MasterChef Singapore and King Of Culinary, they’ll be in for a treat at these roadshows. Familiar faces such as MasterChef’s Leon Lim as well as King Of Culinary’s veteran chefs such as Pung Lu Tin, Chef Bob and Anand Kumar will also be there to share their healthy cooking tips.
Artistes such as Dennis Chew, Liu Ling Ling, Priscelia Chan and Rayson Tan will be chatting with general practitioners (GPs) about health goals and how a customised health plan is important. It is the perfect segue into a conversation to convince Ma and Pa to sign up for the free health planning offered at participating polyclinics and over 900 GP clinics. (Those aged 60 years and above will receive the SMS invite from MOH first, followed by those aged 40 years and above.)
If you’re not at home to help with the registration via the HealthHub app, you can ask your parents and grandparents to visit the enrolment stations at community clubs, and joint testing and vaccination centres for assistance.
For more details on the Healthier SG roadshows, visit www.healthiersg.gov.sg/roadshows/about/