The case against Fukushimaâs radioactive water release
A South Korean delegation visiting Japan in an attempt to stop the release of radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station into the Pacific Ocean has called on Tokyo to suspend and “completely reevaluate” its plan considering the threat to marine food chains and the existence of safer alternatives such as solidification.
Speaking at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club in Tokyo on July 12, Wi Seong-gon, a member of the National Assembly of the Republic of Korea, called the Japanese government’s decision, which was recently approved by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a violation of international law, a violation of the London Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution, and “a serious threat to our shared oceans.”
Yoon Jae-kab, also a South Korean national assembly member, lamented that “At one time, Japan was a country that was more sensitive to nuclear and radiation safety than any other country in the world.”
“Japan led the London Convention’s 1993 ban on the disposal of radioactive waste in the world’s oceans,” he added. “However,” in a stunning about-face, “Japan is now planning to discharge 1.33 million tons of irradiated wastewater into the ocean, even though the water is not normal treated cooling water from a typical nuclear power plant but water contaminated with meltdown-induced radiation.”
Both Wi and Yoon are members of South Korea’s opposition Democratic Party. They were joined on the podium by Park Yeon-hwan, representative of the Korea Federation of Advanced Fisheries Leader in Jeollanamdo, a seafood-producing region on the Korean Peninsula’s southwest corner, and Tomoko Abe, a Japanese congressman with the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party.
As the situation stands, Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco), which owns and manages the Fukushima nuclear power station, will begin discharging wastewater into the ocean in August. This will be done after the water is treated using an Advanced Liquid Processing System (ALPS) that removes radioactive materials.
On July 4, the IAEA issued a report which concluded that “the approach and activities to the discharge of ALPS-treated water taken by Japan are consistent with relevant international safety standards” and would have “a negligible radiological impact on people and the environment.”
Concerning the IAEA’s assessment, Park the fisherman asked if it’s that safe, why doesn’t Japan use the water in its own agriculture or industry?
On July 11, Japan’s Asahi Shimbun reported that Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura had told the Fukushima prefectural fisheries cooperative association in a closed meeting that “Safety has been thoroughly confirmed, so I will explain (the plan) to you.”
His explanation was evidently not convincing, as the leader of the association replied, “We maintain our opposition to the release of the treated water. Our ultimate goal is the continuation of a safe and stable fishing industry.”
Back in 2015, Japanese authorities said they wouldn’t dump Fukushima wastewater into the sea without the “understanding” of local fishermen. They don’t have that understanding today, but they plan to do it anyway.
In an interview with South Korea’s Hankyoreh posted on June 21, Japanese National Diet member Tomoko Abe said, “This issue is not one that can be resolved by the Japanese government and the IAEA stating that the situation is fine.
“The sea is our shared asset. We need the understanding of the people who are concerned about the discharge and neighboring countries.”
Turning to water treatment, Abe noted that: “There isn’t enough data to verify the effectiveness of ALPS.” Samples were taken from only three of more than 1,000 tanks full of contaminated water and they were reportedly taken from the top of the tanks, where radioactivity is less concentrated.
“That means we can’t trust the data used to verify the effectiveness of ALPS,” she said. “This is an act of deception.” It is also an act of political convenience, as dumping the wastewater into the ocean is the cheapest and easiest solution to the problem.
The Korean delegation called both the performance verification of ALPS and IAEA’s safety assessment into question. Politician Yoon said, “Truth be told, the IAEA is an organization founded with the goal of promoting the atomic energy industry.”
But Abe is neither a total pessimist nor an inflexible critic of Japanese government policy. Asked how she thought the radioactive water should be disposed of, Abe said:
“It’s not too late. It is necessary to remove as much radioactive material as possible by running the water multiple times through ALPS, as TEPCO is doing now. Once the radioactive content has been lowered to below the threshold, it should be mixed with cement, sand, and other materials so it can be stored in solid form.”
However, groundwater is constantly flowing into the reactor site in Fukushima, coming into contact with the melted nuclear fuel and reactor components – a substance called corium – and the water used to cool the corium.
The groundwater is contaminated with numerous radionuclides, unstable elements that emit radiation as they break down including tritium, carbon-14 and isotopes of strontium, plutonium and iodine.
As Greenpeace points out in “The reality of the Fukushima radioactive water crisis,” a study published in October 2020:
“Tritium and strontium-90 have half-lives (the time it takes radiation to decay by 50%) of 12.3 and 28.8 years respectively. This means that, for these radionuclides alone, the radiation risk will remain for 125 to 290 years (the risk period is generally considered to be ten half-lives). However, there are many other radionuclides with even longer half-lives present in the contaminated water. For example, iodine-129 has a half-life of 13 million years.”
According to Tepco, the release of radioactive water into the ocean will continue for 30 years but that could prove a low-end estimate if decommissioning of the nuclear power station is delayed. In any case, the cumulative amount of radioactive water to be released over the next 30 years is likely to be huge.
According to a joint statement from 11 Korean national assembly and eight Japanese National Diet members, no estimate of this amount is publicly available. Greenpeace estimates that the 1.33 million tons of irradiated water mentioned by Yoon “could become 2 million tons within the next 10 years.”
As Yoon pointed out at the press conference, “radioactive materials dumped into the ocean are bound to be amplified and concentrated in toxicity as they move up the food chain.”
Radioactive fish, he said, will end up on our dinner tables. Wi noted that “The discovery of cesium-laden Rockfish [on the Fukushima coast] serves as a warning of the ecological accumulation of radioactive substances.”
In the more analytical language of Greenpeace, “Carbon-14 is integrated in the carbon cycle, which is very complex due to the presence of inorganic and organic carbon, in solid, liquid or gaseous forms. Put simply, carbon-14 is incorporated into all living matter to varying factors of concentration.
“With a half-life of 5,730 years, carbon-14 is a major contributor to global human collective dose; once introduced into the environment it will be delivered to local, regional and global populations for many generations.”
In a position paper issued in December 2022, the US National Association of Marine Laboratories stated that it opposes the release of radioactive water from the Fukushima Daichi nuclear power station into the Pacific Ocean.
Its assessment was “based on the fact that there is a lack of adequate and accurate scientific data supporting Japan’s assertion of safety. Furthermore, there is an abundance of data demonstrating serious concerns about releasing radioactively contaminated water.”
On the other hand, The Society for Radiological Protection in the UK states that “The IAEA verdict is entirely justifiable.” It said, “there should be no concerns that these operations [the release of ALPS-treated waste water] could in any way affect human health or the environment.”
But the UK is far away and both Chinese and Korean public opinion are inflamed on the issue.
On July 11, Hong Kong chief executive John Lee Ka-chiu told the press that if Japan releases radioactive water into the ocean, his government will greatly expand restrictions on the import of Japanese seafood products. China’s central government already did that last week. Demand for Japanese seafood has already dropped substantially in China and South Korea.
On July 12, it was reported that the Japanese government would provide fishermen with 80 billion yen ($600 million) in financial support to offset their losses and win their understanding.
Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in Vilnius on the sidelines of the NATO summit that the release of Fukushima wastewater would be suspended if the radioactivity exceeded safety standards.
President Yoon’s government has accepted the IAEA report, despite the opposition of an estimated 85% of the South Korean population. That is seen by critics as part of his efforts to improve relations with Japan. If that is indeed the case, Wi avers it’s the wrong way to go about it.
The process of releasing radioactive wastewater into the ocean might be cheap and easy, but the total cost, political as well as economic, could be very high. Another protest against the dumping plan it is scheduled to be held in Fukushima on July 17.
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Man gets jail for attacking taxi driver in KPE tunnel and kicking police, says he needed the toilet
SINGAPORE: A man was sentenced to 22 weeks’ jail on Thursday (Jul 13) for attacking a taxi driver as he was driving in an expressway tunnel and kicking a police officer who later came to help.
In his defence, he claimed that his actions of kicking the police officer were “involuntary” because he was drunk and needed to go to the toilet.
He had also defecated by the roadside to the cabby’s annoyance before the police officer arrived in a charge taken into consideration.
Chen Lei, 35, was convicted of two counts of voluntarily causing hurt to a public servant and one charge of voluntarily causing hurt.
The court heard that the victim, a 73-year-old taxi driver, picked up Chen after the China national had gone drinking with his friends.
After the cabby entered the Kallang-Paya Lebar Expressway (KPE), Chen began punching the cabby’s head and neck areas without any provocation.
The cabby used one hand to block the attacks and the other to control the steering wheel.
Eventually, he found a safe location to stop at and stepped on the emergency brake, before escaping.
An eyewitness testified that Chen had already manoeuvred himself towards the cabby, with his legs extended to the driver’s seat, before climbing out from the driver’s side door.
The cabby called the police, while Chen defecated by the side of the road, which the eyewitness also saw.
The police came and took Chen with them but Chen kicked the officer twice as he was driving.
The prosecution asked for 22 weeks’ to 28 weeks’ jail, saying the cabby suffered swelling on his hand and pain in his head and neck.
The cabby was a public transport worker, while Chen was voluntarily intoxicated, both aggravating factors, said the prosecutor.
The attack on the taxi driver had also occurred in an expressway tunnel, endangering not only the life of the victim but the lives of other road users.
Chen had also attacked a police officer who was escorting him to lockup, leaving abrasions.
He again endangered the safety of everyone in the police car and of other road users, persisting in showing blatant disrespect for police authority, said the prosecutor.
North Korean state TV shows latest missile launch
North Korean state media has broadcast a video showing the country’s latest intercontinental ballistic missile test launch which happened on Wednesday morning. It showed the Hwasong-18, which was first flown in April, fired from a multi-wheeled vehicle. The launch has been condemned by Japan, South Korea and the US.
Primary school teacher accused of sexual offences against minors, suspended by MOE
SINGAPORE: A primary school teacher has been charged with sexual offences against teenage girls, including sexually assaulting a 15-year-old girl at a staircase and recording sex acts with a 14-year-old girl. Kenneth Seah Wei Yuan, 34, returned to court on Wednesday (Jul 12) to face his charges and was ordered toContinue Reading
Senator resigns a day before PM vote
Renu Tunkachivangoon tendered her resignation as a senator a day before the joint parliamentary session to vote for a new prime minister on Thursday.
Following Ms Renu’s resignation, which took effect on Wednesday, there are now 249 appointed senators, reducing the number of parliamentarians to 749. This will make the number of votes for a prime minister required by the constitution to be 375 from the lower and upper chambers of the parliament.
Ms Renu served as a deputy secretary-general to the prime minister for political affairs before she was appointed to the Senate by the now-defunct National Council for Peace and Order.
The eight coalition parties, led by the Move Forward Party (MFP), command 312 MPs. MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat, the party’s sole prime ministerial candidate, now needs 63 votes from either senators or MPs outside the bloc.
Senator Naowarat Pongpaiboon said on Thursday that he stood by his intention made during a parliament session that senators should not have the right to choose a prime minister. The national artist said he would abstain from voting for any candidate on Thurday.
China’s exports fall most in three years as global economy struggles
Lv Daliang, a spokesperson for the General Administration of Customs, blamed the poor export performance on “a weak global economic recovery, slowing global trade and investment, and rising unilateralism, protectionism and geopolitics”, in comments at a news conference in Beijing. Policymakers are now reckoning with the prospect of prolonged slowerContinue Reading
China’s June exports fall 12.4%, imports drop 6.8%
Policymakers are now reckoning with the prospect of prolonged slower growth in the world’s second-largest economy of around just 3 per cent annually, according to economists’ forecasts. That is less than half the rates typical throughout recent decades and creates the feel of an economy in recession. Chinese factory activityContinue Reading
Indonesian fintech Orderfaz raises pre-seed round from 1982 Ventures
Developed for Indonesia’s unique social-centric online market
Indonesian social commerce market expected to reach US$90bil by 2028
Orderfaz, an Indonesian fintech startup for social commerce sellers, today announced the completion of an undisclosed pre-seed financing led by 1982 Ventures.
“Building off one of the world’s most digitally-connected populations, social commerce adoption has exploded in Indonesia,…Continue Reading
Missing Malaysian hikers reported safe in Indian state hit by torrential rain
KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian hikers previously reported to be missing in the flood-hit northern region of India are confirmed to be safe.
In a statement on Wednesday (Jul 12), the Malaysian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the Malaysian High Commission in New Delhi was informed that the hikers are safe in Manali, a town in Himachal Pradesh.
The ministry clarified that only ten Malaysians are involved while the other two members of the group are Chinese and British nationals. An earlier report stated that all 12 missing hikers were Malaysians.
The ministry was able to contact one of the Malaysian hikers through the High Commission.
“Following this development, the Malaysian High Commission in New Delhi will endeavour to bring the group out to New Delhi on Thursday, Jul 13, 2023.
“If the evacuation plan goes smoothly, the group is expected to take a flight back to Malaysia on the same day,” according to the statement.
“The ministry would like to express its gratitude for the cooperation and immediate assistance provided by the Indian government authorities in an effort to locate all the Malaysians.”
In a statement earlier on Wednesday, the Malaysian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the High Commission was informed that the group in question was participating in an adventure expedition in Hampta Pass in Himachal Pradesh.
China winning on the Pacific political battlefield
SAIPAN – Seventy-nine years ago, on July 9, 1944, the American military secured the island of Saipan—a key component of Imperial Japan’s defense plan. Tens of thousands died in the battle, and the island was devastated.
Then it was rebuilt for war – with a massive effort to put in runways. Saipan and the neighboring island of Tinian were soon among the busiest airports in the world, as waves of B-29s took off to bomb Japan – which was now in range – and markedly fewer B-29s returned.
On the top of Mount Tapochau, the highest point on the island, you can still see the scars seared in by the war. And from Mount Topachau, you can see the mismatched battlefield of the current cold war.
Out on the horizon, anchored off Saipan, are three US Navy prepositioning ships, fully stocked and ready to respond to war and disaster. The kids of Saipan know that if they suddenly disappear from the horizon, something bad has probably happened. Yes, they respond to natural disasters, but they are also there, waiting, for “kinetic” conflict – a shooting war.
Meanwhile, also from Mount Tapochau, you can see the downtown hub of Garapan. The biggest building in downtown, by far, is the not quite finished massive Imperial Palace casino, backed by Chinese investors. Currently closed and being liquidated, the casino has wreaked havoc on the politics and economy of Saipan. And it’s still not over.
Look at both battlefields
While the US has been focused on preparing for the kinetic warfare battlefield, China has been registering big wins, largely unopposed (except perhaps occasionally due to its own corruption and ineptitude), on the political warfare battlefield.
You can see it all over the Pacific Islands – not coincidentally the zone of some of the most vicious fighting of World War II. Geography means that any Pacific Asian country that wants to project its power must first contain or control this area.
The Chinese Communist Party knows this history. It is targeting the same deep ports, strategic airfields and resources that the Japanese did – but it is doing it through political warfare, while the US looks for kinetic signals.
For example, in May, the United States made what seemed to be a big gain on the kinetic front, when a defense deal was agreed upon with Papua New Guinea. Less noticed was that, in June, PNG Prime Minister James Marape presented to Parliament a reciprocal visa waiver agreement with China, saying: “This reciprocal visa waiver agreement is a significant step towards enhancing business and tourism potential between China and Papua New Guinea.”
Not long after that, two officials from the US Indo-Pacific Command’s Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance did not obtain visas to participate in a PNG-approved disaster response exercise. This has echoes of the US Coast Guard ships on patrol against illegal fisheries not being able to obtain entry to Solomon Islands or Vanuatu ports.
All are hits to the US on the political warfare front – blocking the Americans from working with allies, building trust and bolstering relationships. It’s below the kinetic threshold so it barely registers in Washington, but it’s a win for China (and a loss for the people of those countries who want both more humanitarian assistance and help with illegal fisheries).
It’s almost as if the US were color blind, unable to see the countries being painted red. Washington at best talks of things getting a bit more grey (as in zone).
Centrality of the Central Pacific
An area where the stakes for the US (and those who believe in a free and open Indo-Pacific) of getting it wrong are especially high is the Central Pacific. Included in the Central Pacific are two parts of the United States: Guam and the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands. Saipan is a part of the latter.
Also included are three island nations, stretching from west to east – Republic of Palau, Federated States of Micronesia and Republic of Marshall Islands – that occupy an area about as large as the continental United States. This is strategic geography by any standard.
Starting nearly 40 years ago, each of those three independent nations entered into a “compact of free association” (COFA) with the US. These countries are known collectively as the Freely Associated States (FAS).
These complex agreements, currently being renegotiated, provide the three countries with financial and other assistance – to include the right of their citizens to live and work in the United States. Washington also undertook responsibility for the nations’ defense, to include the right to prevent any foreign military presence in each of the COFA states.
The deep relationship between the US and the Freely Associated States is considered such a given, unimpeded access has been an unspoken assumption in US defense plans for decades.
However, over the last 30 years (some would say longer) the People’s Republic of China has insinuated itself into the commercial and political systems of each FAS nation, to the point American control is no longer the “sure thing” it was once thought. Indeed, one of the three, Marshall Islands, has yet to complete its renewal of the financial and services portion of its COFA – which expires on September 30, 2023.
Ultimately, the United States took the Freely Associated States for granted – apparently assuming that, since the US “had a contract,” there was nothing to worry about.
Washington also assumed that all would be well since it was providing considerable aid to the FAS—direct financial payments as well as support for education, health care, infrastructure development, and even postal services and weather forecasting services, as well as offering the right of FAS citizens to reside in the United States and providing “military protection” for the island nations.
The PRC took advantage of American complacency and patiently and diligently went about establishing and expanding its influence in the Freely Associated States. The Chinese applied a recognizable “sequence” – starting with a commercial presence that included Chinese nationals on the ground and operating businesses down to the corner-shop level.
Chinese economic inroads also included Chinese involvement in and, indeed, outright control of key industries – including local fishing industries – that are the main economic resources for the Freely Associated States. There is also substantial PRC-linked criminal activity.
This commercial/criminal presence created political influence – directly, with local officials and other citizens who saw the Chinese presence as a valuable thing in an economy with limited prospects. It was also personally valuable for many local officials and politicians.
In Palau, the Chinese successfully weaponized the tourism industry to influence local officials and others. And this approach has also been used in the Federated States of Micronesia via the offer of massive investments by Chinese resort companies.
All in all, the Chinese were (and are) seen by many in the FAS as an economic lifeline. And while the local intention may be to have Chinese money in addition to American support via the COFAs, the effect – and the PRC’s intention – is to displace the United States eventually in the Central Pacific.
Then forget any economic largess from anyone. China will block economic access by others and revert to its usual parasitic economic engagement while setting up the infrastructure it wants so that it can project political and kinetic power.
A necessary step toward that goal is to get the two FAS nations that recognize Taiwan – Palau and Marshall Islands – to de-recognize Taipei so that China can set up the forward operating base of political warfare, a Chinese Embassy.
US (non)response
The US has been too slow to recognize what has been happening – even though Chinese influence efforts have been reported, even via US diplomatic channels. And, of course, there is a whacking great, gilded casino in the heart of Saipan.
The casino failed, but that was because the operators (who are still floating around Saipan) cut corners. It never should have been started. The Americans had (and still have) no political warfare scheme of their own – so the Chinese have effectively operated unchallenged.
While bribery and under the table payments are part and parcel of Chinese activities in each of the Freely Associated States, there is next to no downside risk to taking Chinese money owing to scant prospects of such activities being revealed or, if revealed, punished.
The US also has been unsuccessful in drawing major commercial interests into the region in any meaningful way. This could be owing to a lack of business know-how and imagination in US diplomatic and official circles. It is exacerbated by a failure to work together with partners – such as the Japanese, Taiwanese, South Koreans and Indians – on commercial and other broader approaches to bolstering the US and other free nations’ presence and interests in the region.
What to do
The majority of citizens in the region want nothing to do with the PRC. But they want, indeed they need, the Americans and other like-minded people to “step up” and demonstrate their reputed commitment to the region. In many ways, this is what India has been trying to do in similar circumstances in the Indian Ocean and, tentatively, in the Pacific, since Indian Prime Minister Modi’s visit to PNG in May.
While not ignoring kinetic preparations, including in places like the Himalayas and Taiwan, it would help to start mutual reinforcements on the political warfare battlefield, realize what is at stake and quickly develop and implement a proper campaign plan to bolster presence and position and to take on Chinese influence efforts.
Those efforts, again, include the PRC’s highly effective use of under the table financial and other corrupt methods of establishing Beijing’s influence. This needs to be exposed – and intelligence and law enforcement resources need to be deployed at proper scale.
Locals fighting to liberate their countries, and economies, are clear. In a February 2023 Senate hearing, Marianas Governor Arnold I Palacios said: “The interests of the Marianas – in getting our government’s financial house in order, shoring up our economy, strengthening our infrastructure and stabilizing our population – are inextricably linked with the interests of our nation and our allies in a secure and peaceful Indo-Pacific.”
What help has he asked for? Tanks, ammunition, missiles? He wants FBI agents, forensic audits, tax investigators, lawyers and a range of other fighters and weapons that can really make a difference on the political warfare battlefield, especially when the invading force is using criminality as its weapon of choice.
Governor Palacios gets it. Saipan is back on the frontline. The battle looks different this time but, left undefended, the outcome might be just as dire. Seventy-nine years ago, a massive effort was made to rebuild Saipan (and the region) for kinetic war. Rebuild it (and the region) now for a viable and defensible peace, and we have a chance to avoid that sort of war and keep those prepositioning ships reassuringly in sight of the children of Saipan.
Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine colonel and the author of When China Attacks. Cleo Paskal is a non-resident senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and special correspondent of the Sunday Guardian (India), where this article was originally published. Asia Times is republishing it with kind permission.