Tropical storm Talim to bring more rain July 16-20
More rain is forecast across the country from Sunday to Thursday as a result of tropical storm Talim over Vietnam and local monsoons, the Meteorological Department said in its 5am weather forecast on Sunday.
As of 4am on Sunday, tropical storm Talim over the upper South China Sea packing sustained winds of about 85 kilometres per hour was slowly moving in the north-northwest direction. It was expected to move over Hainan island and make landfall in upper Vietnam on July 18-19.
Meanwhile, over July 16-20 a strong monsoon trough will move over the North, Northeast and Central regions of Thailand while another strong southwestern monsoon prevails across the Andaman Sea, the South and the Gulf of Thailand.
More rain is likely across the country. Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is possible in all regions during the period.
People are advised to beware of severe weather conditions that may cause flash floods and overflows, especially along waterways and lowlands.
Provinces to be affected are:
July 16
• North: Chiang Rai, Phayao, Lampang, Phrae, Nan, Uttaradit, Tak, Phitsanulok and Phetchabun.
• Northeast: Nong Bua Lamphu, Udon Thani, Nong Khai, Bueng Kan, Sakon Nakhon, Nakhon Phanom, Mukdahan , Yasothon, Roi Et, Amnat Charoen, Si Sa Ket and Ubon Ratchathani.
• Central: Kanchanaburi and Ratchaburi.
• East: Nakhon Nayok, Prachin Buri, Sa Kaeo, Chachoengsao, Chon Buri, Rayong, Chanthaburi and Trat.
• South: Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Ranong, Phang-nga, Phuket and Krabi.
July 17-18
• North: Mae Hong Son, Tak and Kamphaeng Phet.
• Northeast: Loei, Nong Bua Lamphu, Udon Thani, Nong Khai, Bueng Kan, Sakon Nakhon, Nakhon Phanom, Mukdahan, Kalasin, Maha Sarakham, Roi Et, Yasothon, Amnat Charoen, Nakhon Ratchasima, Buriram, Surin, Si Sa Ket and Ubon Ratchathani.
• East: Nakhon Nayok, Prachin Buri, Sa Kaeo, Chachoengsao, Chon Buri, Rayong, Chanthaburi and Trat.
• South: Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Ranong, Phang-nga, Phuket, Krabi, Trang and Satun in the South.
July 18-19
• North: Mae Hong Son, Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Lamphun, Lampang, Phayao, Nan, Phrae, Uttaradit, Tak, Phitsanulok and Phetchabun.
• Northeast: Loei, Nong Bua Lamphu, Udon Thani, Nong Khai, Bueng Kan, Sakon Nakhon, Nakhon Phanom, Mukdahan, Roi Et, Yasothon, Amnat Charoen, Nakhon Ratchasima, Buriram, Surin, Sisaket and Ubon Ratchathani.
• Central: Saraburi, Kanchanaburi, Ratchaburi, Samut Sakhon, Samut Songkhram, Nakhon Pathom, and Bangkok and its vicinity.
• East: Nakhon Nayok, Prachin Buri, Sa Kaeo, Chachoengsao, Chonburi, Rayong, Chanthaburi and Trat.
• South: Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Ranong, Phang Nga, Phuket, Krabi, Trang and Satun.
Waves in the Andaman Sea and upper Gulf of Thailand will be 2-4 metres high, and 4m in areas with thundershowers.
In the lower Gulf of Thailand, waves will be 2-3 metres high and over 3m in areas with thundershowers.
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Delhi-Dhaka ties a pivot to steer Indiaâs Indo-Pacific vision
India has long parted from the centrality of Pakistan in its foreign policy and as the assertiveness of China started growing into the waters of the Indian Ocean in the last decade, India looked from the West to the eastern shore of the Bay of Bengal.
With a rapidly growing economy backed by a stable government and the other countries of South Asia having a larger dependency on China, Bangladesh became an important element in India’s neighborhood policy.
With a shared history and culture, the ties between India and Bangladesh were natural and there has been significant progress made in multiple areas including bilateral trade, which has increased with Indian investments.
Bangladesh is one of the largest recipients of Line of Credit funds from India, and India’s exports to Bangladesh in 2022 amounted to US$13.83 billion while the imports stood at $2 billion.
The hallmark of present-day relations, however, is energy-sector cooperation, connectivity, and engagement in areas of science and technology.
Bangladesh has currently imported 1,160 megawatts of power from India and the 2017 agreement with Adani Power Ltd will provide 1,496MW of electricity from a coal-based power plant in Jharkhand for 25 years.
Bangladesh has also shown interest in procuring military equipment from India, including the Tejas light combat aircraft and Dhruv light helicopters, apart from protective gear such as bulletproof jackets and helmets.
Bangladesh’s Indo-Pacific outlook
Historically, Bangladesh’s foreign policy has been based on a collaborative approach to avoid being dragged into any geopolitical tensions where it has no vested interests. Although it cannot fully embody the strategic interests of Bangladesh, the idea of “friendship for all and malice to none” became a guiding principle of its foreign policy.
The Indo-Pacific Outlook (IPO) document unveiled by Bangladeshi Foreign Minister A K Abdul Momen on April 24 followed a similar pattern and called for a “free, open, peaceful, secure and inclusive Indo-Pacific,” which was linked to its “Vision 2041” of being a knowledge-based developed country.
The IPO of Bangladesh aligns with India’s vision, which has also been in support of a free and rules-based Indo-Pacific, and though the document claims to be neutral, it has a Western slant.
The West has been trying to include Bangladesh in its Indo-Pacific strategy and bring it closer through key trade and investment partners. Bangladesh’s strategic location serving as a gateway to both South and Southeast Asia and having friendly relations with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue members makes it an ideal partner for the West and India to engage in their Indo-Pacific vision.
India’s interest in maintaining security and access to the volatile northeastern part of the country and having direct access to the Bay of Bengal can only be possible by engaging Bangladesh. This is in addition to the interest of further strengthening the Act East Policy and containing the military rise of China in the region.
New Delhi is aware of this and has been actively engaging Bangladesh through the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) after the shift from the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) for regional outreach.
India’s G20 presidency and Bangladesh
As India holds the presidency of the Group of Twenty summit this year, it has followed tradition and invited non-member countries including the only South Asian country, Bangladesh, to the summit. This speaks volumes of the importance that India has attached to its eastern neighbor and the role of Bangladesh in its Indo-Pacific vision.
India will be looking to cooperate with Bangladesh in the area of climate change, especially after the visit by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to Delhi last year and also collaborate in a smoother transition to cleaner sources of energy.
Apart from this, India and Bangladesh will look to sign the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) that will further boost connectivity and future trade through Asian Network routes (AH-1 and 2), and BIMSTEC.
Since the dominance of the US dollar has been in decline, India and Bangladesh have decided to cut their dependency on the dollar for transactions and have their trade settlements in Indian rupees.
Last, the CEPA will also open up opportunities to create a joint production hub and uninterrupted supply chain.
This regional connectivity, however, needs to be translated into business avenues that can foster growth. With the two governments sharing good relations and Bangladesh’s willingness to be a part of India’s Indo-Pacific relationship, New Delhi has to go the extra mile to offer incentives in terms of Indian investments to Dhaka to steer its own Indo-Pacific vision.
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Thais want repeated re-nominations of Pita until he’s endorsed: poll
More than 43% of Thais said Pita Limjaroenrat, the sole prime ministerial candidate of the Move Forward Party, should be re-nominated repeatedly until he is finally endorsed if he failed in the first round of vote in parliament, according to an opinion survey by the National Institute of Development Administration, or Nida Poll.
The poll was conducted by telephone interviews with 1,310 people on July 11-12, before parliament convened on July 13 to select the prime minister when Mr Pita was nominated for the post of prime minister. He needed at least 375 votes from the 500 elected House members and the 250 military-appointed senators but managed to get only 324.
Asked what should happen if Mr Pita failed to get the needed votes in the first round, the answers were:
• 43.21% said Mr Pita should be re-nominated repeatedly until he finally gets enough votes
• 20.69% said he should be re-nominated only once or twice
• 12.98% said the Move Forward Party should back down from some policies opposed by senators
• 7.94% said the Pheu Thai Party, which came second in terms of MP numbers, should be immediately allowed to lead the formation of a government
• 4.88% said the Move Forward Party should invite other parties in the former government bloc to join the eight-party alliance to increase support votes
• 2.67% said there should be protest rallies to apply pressure on senators to vote for Mr Pita
• 2.52% said the Pheu Thai Party should immediately take over the Move Forward Party in forming a government
• 2.29% said the Move Forward Party should immediately announce to take the opposition role
• 2.06% said the Pheu Thai Party should immediately form a new alliance to form a government
• 0.76% had no answer or were not interested
Asked who they thought stands a good chance of being nominated for the prime minister’s post if Mr Pita failed to get enough votes, the answers were:
• 38.55% mentioned Paetongtarn Shinawatra of the Pheu Thai Party
• 35.04% Srettha Thavisin of the Pheu Thai Party
• 6.79% Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha of the United Thai Nation Party
• 5.42% Gen Prawit Wongsuwon of the Palang Pracharath Party
• 4.27% Anutin Charnvirakul of the Bhumjaithai Party
• 1.45% Jurin Laksanawisit of the Democrat Party
• 1.07% Pirapan Salirathavibhaga of the United Thai Nation Party
• 1.76% combined mentioned Chaikasem Nitisiri of the Pheu Thai Party and Khunying Sudarat and Sita Divari of the Thai Sang Thai Party.
The rest, 5.65%, had no answer or were not interested.
Most people for repeated re-nominations of Pita until he is endorsed: Nida Poll
Most people said Pita Limjaroenrat, the sole prime ministerial candidate of the Move Forward Party, should be re-nominated repeatedly until he is finally endorsed if he failed in the first round of vote in parliament, according to an opinion survey by the National Institute of Development Administration, or Nida Poll.
The poll was conducted by telephone interviews with 1,310 people on July 11-12, before parliament convened on July 13 to select the prime minister when Mr Pita was nominated for the post of prime minister. He needed at least 375 votes of endorsement but managed to get only 324.
Asked what if Mr Pita failed to get the needed votes in the first round, the answers varied:
• 43.21% said Mr Pita should be re-nominated repeatedly until he finally gets enough votes
• 20.69% said he should be re-nominated only once or twice
• 12.98% said the Move Forward Party should back down from some policies disagreed by senators
• 7.94% said the Pheu Thai Party, which came second in terms of MP numbers, should be immediately allowed to lead the formation of a government
• 4.88% said the Move Forward Party should invite other parties in the former government bloc to join the eight-party alliance to increase support votes
• 2.67% said there should be protest rallies to apply pressure on senators to vote for Mr Pita
• 2.52% said the Pheu Thai Party should immediately take over the Move Forward Party in forming a government
• 2.29% said the Move Forward Party should immediately announce to take the opposition role
• 2.06% said the Pheu Thai Party should immediately form a new alliance to form a government
• 0.76% had no answer or were not interested
Asked who they thought stands a good chance of being nominated for the prime minister’s post if Mr Pita failed to get enough votes, the answers:
• 38.55% mentioned Paetongtarn Shinawatra of the Pheu Thai Party
• 35.04% Srettha Thavisin of the Pheu Thai Party
• 6.79% Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha of the United Thai Nation Party
• 5.42% Gen Prawit Wongsuwon of the Palang Pracharath Party
• 4.27% Anutin Charnvirakul of the Bhumjaithai Party
• 1.45% Jurin Laksanawisit of the Democrat Party
• 1.07% Pirapan Salirathavibhaga of the United Thai Nation Party
• 1.76% combined mentioned Chaikasem Nitisiri of the Pheu Thai Party and Khunying Sudarat and Sita Divari of the Thai Sang Thai Party.
The rest, 5.65%, had no answer or were not interested.
CPTPP: UK agrees to join Asia’s trade club but what is it?
Getty ImagesThe UK has signed a deal to join a trade pact with several countries in Asia and the Pacific, including Japan and Australia.
The name of this pact – CPTPP – is an unwieldy mouthful, but it’s also a new club of 500 million people the UK will be able to access.
So what does it mean for the fortunes of businesses and households?
What is the CPTPP?
The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a trade agreement between 11 nations: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.
Those founding members signed the Pacific trade pact in March 2018.
Between them, they generate 13% of the world’s income.
The UK is the first non-founding country to join, and will be its second biggest economy after Japan. It takes the value of the new grouping to £11 trillion.
What’s in it for the UK?
The short-term gains are marginal.
The UK already had deals with the majority of these nations as part of its EU membership which have been carried over.
Since Brexit, the UK has added Australia and New Zealand to its trade deal tally.
It was just Brunei and Malaysia left that the UK didn’t have a deal with and between them those two account for less than 0.5% of the total of UK trade.
Even with some changes to the trading arrangements with other countries, the gains from the expanded accord is expected to be fairly small – around 0.08% of GDP over 10 years, according to the government’s best stab at an estimate.
However the Business and Trade Secretary likens CPTPP to a start-up, indicating the estimates doesn’t account for the fact that some members – for example, Vietnam – are rapidly growing in importance in global trade.
Even so, by contrast, leaving the EU, the government’s independent forecasters reckon, will have reduced the UK’s growth by far more – perhaps 4% of our income.
In total, the CPTPP accounted for 8% of UK exports in 2019 – less than we sold to Germany.
What changes?
The key perk is greater access to each other’s markets, and a pledge to eliminate or reduce 95% of import charges or tariffs.
But some are kept to protect sensitive domestic areas, such as Japan’s rice farming industry.
Also, manufacturers that get components from lots of different places can claim their products qualify for preferential treatment.
That means they can tick the so-called “rules of origin” box, as long as 70% of those components come from any of the participating countries.
The provisions could help UK producers of items such as machinery and medicines – our most valuable exports to those nations – by reducing their costs and allowing them to expand their supply chains across the constituent countries.
Away from trade, membership means investors from CPTPP countries get the same treatment as domestic firms when they put money into projects taking place in other member states, which could benefit UK firms.
In 2017, the CPTPP nations accounted for about £1 in every £12 of foreign investment in the UK, and the same going the other way – supporting business and jobs.
In return, countries must co-operate on regulations, such as food standards.
However, unlike the European Union, the CPTPP is neither a single market nor a customs union.
So countries are not required to have identical regulations and standards.
And countries can strike their own trade deals with others, as the UK has with the EU – although membership of the CPTPP would not be consistent with re-joining the EU itself.
What are the concerns?
In short, what has the UK had to agree to as the price of admission?
Some, including members of a House of Lords committee want to know how the UK intends, for example, to ensure environmental and animal welfare standards will be met.
The government has pointed out that CPTPP allows members to set their own levels of protection and it wouldn’t compromise the UK’s standards.
As part of the agreement, the UK will grant Canadian farmers more access to UK markets – but hormone-treated meat will still be banned.
And it is conceding to lower tariffs on imports of Malaysian palm oil – which has been blamed for aiding deforestation. Those charges currently can be up to 12%.
Trade unions have voiced concerns that plans to encourage more investment could allow multinational companies to legally challenge British policies – although trade experts say this capacity exists in other trade deals, and hasn’t ever been successfully exercised against the government.
What about the future?
The treaty will be scrutinised and ratified by members before coming into force, which could take at least a year.
It is the partnership’s potential that is key.
The agreement will loosen restrictions on services and digital trade, which matches the UK’s ambitions, and ties it in with some of the faster-growing nations.
But the biggest rewards – and challenges – could occur if others join the club.
China is among those vying to sign up, as is Taiwan.
Could the UK veto China’s membership? Or use its membership to shape China’s access and ambitions?
The real prize would be if the US reverses the decision made by President Trump not to sign up.
America buys about double the amount of UK exports than the current CPTPP nations put together, but membership doesn’t appear to be on President Biden’s to-do list.
At present, membership of the CPTPP is a mainly symbolic win for post-Brexit Britain.
But ultimately it could yield considerable rewards.
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22 oil leaks, 507 tonnes of waste in one year
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment has reported 22 incidents of oil leaks in the Gulf of Thailand and a total of 507 tonnes of rubbish collected from the seas around the country last year, said deputy government spokeswoman Traisulee Taisaranakul.
Ms Traisulee said the cabinet has acknowledged the report from the ministry offering an overview of the country’s marine environment situation in 24 coastal provinces last year.
Overall, sea water quality was found to be slightly more polluted due to oil spills and garbage dumps from industrial plants. Reports said that 7% of sea water is very clean with 57% rated as clean, 30% moderately clean and 6% polluted.
Ms Traisulee said that there were 22 incidents of oil leaks last year, most of which occurred in Rayong and neighbouring Chon Buri where many industrial plants are located and tourist activities take place.
The ministry also reported that over 507 tonnes of marine garbage and debris were collected from the seas around the country last year. Most were discarded bottles, plastic bags and styrofoam.
Of the 659 sea animals found to have beached last year, 168 had died from ingesting plastic and becoming entangled with drifting rubbish.
The ministry also reported that 823 km of the country’s 3,151 km coastline is eroded. Of the eroded coasts, 753 km of coastline has been repaired by constructing barriers and sand fences, said Ms Traisulee. She added the coral reef situation in Thailand improved last year compared to the previous year.
The country has 149,182 rai of coral reef. The ministry said 53% of the reefs are in good condition, 22% in moderately good condition while some of the remaining 25% have been slightly bleached.
Seagrass around the country has expanded by 4% compared to 2021. It was found that of the 103,580 rai of seagrass nationwide, 25% were in good condition, 36% in moderately good condition and the remaining 35% slightly good condition.
Also, the country has 1.73 million rai of mangrove forests which are found to be most densely-grown in the southern provinces along the lower Andaman coast. As for the beach forests, there are 47,149 rai across 18 provinces. Few expanses of such forests remain due to a lack of conservation efforts and heavy tourism. Turning to rare marine animals, Ms Traisulee said 273 dugongs and 2,310 dolphins and whales were found in the country’s seas. Sea turtles were reported to have laid eggs in 604 nests.
Thai brides flee as sweet talk sours
victims say deals gateway to abuse
Women hired to marry Chinese men risk breaking the law both in China and Thailand, warned the police on Saturday.
The warning came after the Anti-Trafficking in Persons Division (ATPD) found that a Thai woman in Udon Thani, who endured three years of assault in China, was not the victim of a human trafficking offence.
The woman married a Chinese man of her own free will so it is not a human trafficking case, said ATPD deputy commander Pol Col Surapong Chatsut.
The woman, identified by police as a 31-year-old Nuch, signed a contract with a go-between, legally obliging her to marry a Chinese man to produce a child.
Ms Nuch earlier told police she and three others were tricked into marrying Chinese men.
They were said to be persuaded by a matchmaker, identified as Da, to tie the knot with Chinese men for 100,000-baht dowries with a condition that they get pregnant in the first six months.
However, the victims were said to have stayed in China as servants or even the second wives to their fathers-in-law after the babies were delivered.
Ms Nuch, who is from the province’s Nong Wua So district, first told the media on Thursday about her marriage and the torment she suffered. She said she and three other Thai women were able to leave China and arrived back in Thailand last month thanks to her mother’s help.
Ms Nuch said she married 32-year-old Chinese national Jin Wei Lian less than three days after their matchmaking before moving to China’s Hubei province.
She said she told the matchmaker before meeting her husband that she was unable to bear children, but the marriage went ahead regardless. She was kept in a house and was assaulted by her husband and her mother-in-law for failing to conceive.
She said she was assaulted for three years before she decided to flee to Thailand along with three other women who also reported unhappy and abusive marriages to Chinese partners.
Pol Col Surapong said that to be admissible as a human trafficking offence, the victim must suffer a forcible act. Under the Anti-Trafficking Act 2008, such offence covers prostitution, production and distribution of pornographic materials, slavery, forced recruitment of individuals to work as beggars and forced labour.
“Ms Nuch, on the other hand, contractually consented to marry in exchange for a dowry, which is outside of the act’s coverage,” the ATPD deputy commander said.
The ATPD officers were sent to Udon Thani to investigate similar marriage scams there.
Pol Col Surapong said he was concerned some local women may have signed the marriage contract without a full understanding of the fine print contained in the agreement. Getting help to them will be difficult once they have left the country to live in China.
“This issue could make some Thai women feel apprehensive about getting into a relationship with foreign nationals,” he added.
More Chinese men were looking outside their country for women to have children with since China lifted its one-child policy, in place from 1980 to 2016, according to Pol Col Surapong.
Meanwhile, Pol Maj Gen Panthana Nuchanart, deputy commissioner of the Immigration Bureau (IB), said strict measures were being launched to deter Chinese criminals from using Thailand as a base to conduct illegal activities.
The measures were also needed to keep out Chinese fugitives planning to enter the kingdom to escape legal charges.
Pol Maj Gen Panthana said being hired to get married and having gone to live in China entails many legal and personal dangers to the women, who also risk breaking the law both in Thailand and China.
Apart from physical abuse, other possible legal violations concern the terms and conditions of the marriage contracts.
The men who came over from China to spend time in Thailand as part of the marriage arrangement must also comply with the Immigration Act, which stipulates they must notify the IB within 24 hours of their arrival.
Pol Maj Gen Panthana attended a conference on combating trans-border crimes between Thailand and China, in Kunming, capital of China’s Yunnan province, from July 8-12.
Participants exchanged information which enabled authorities in both countries to prepare suppression and prevention measures.
Chinese authorities also agreed to share with the IB their database of criminal suspects facing arrest warrants in China, who might be fleeing to Thailand.