Sure A Not

Phnom Penh might finally mend relations with the West as it undergoes a once-in-a-generation leadership succession that could see Prime Minister Hun Sen hand down power to his eldest son next month.

The prospect of a new prime minister in Cambodia and a reshaped, youthful cabinet – some of whom were educated in American universities – could lead to a thaw in Phnom Penh’s historic distrust of the West, as well as a reset on how Western governments deal with Cambodia’s authoritarian system.  

In style, if not in substance, an inchoate administration led by Hun Manet, son and heir apparent of the long-ruling PM, will want to be on better terms with Western democracies, which are also interested in improving ties even if that means paying less attention to human-rights abuses and democratic deterioration inside Cambodia, analysts tell Asia Times. 

The long-ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) won yet another evidently rigged general election on Sunday, taking all but five seats in parliament in a contest where the only viable opposition party was barred from competing, according to unofficial results. 

With victory all but assured, the real intrigue centered on when Hun Sen, who has been in power since 1985, would step down to make way for Hun Manet to inherit the premiership.

New cabinet

Comments made by Hun Sen in the days leading up to the ballot appeared to suggest that the handover will take place next month when a new cabinet is formed, which is set to see a far-reaching generational shift as the party’s aging grandees make way for youthful faces, many their own children or relatives. 

The prospect of a new prime minister in Cambodia and a youth-focused cabinet – some of whom, like Manet, were educated in the West – has led some commentators to surmise that the country could also undergo a foreign-policy reset.

Manet, 45, was educated in the US and Britain, speaks fluent English and often cuts a more cosmopolitan image than his father, who came of age amid US intervention in Cambodia during the 1970s. 

Cambodia’s relations with Western states, its main export partners, have decayed considerably since 2017 when the ruling CPP forcibly dissolved the largest opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), and civil-society groups on spurious claims that it was engaged in a US-backed conspiracy to take power. 

Phnom Penh unilaterally canceled military drills with the US and began exercises with China that same year. Hun Sen subsequently shifted his country’s strategic alignment fully behind Beijing, its largest trading partner since 2012 and its primary source of investment.

China has since pumped billions of dollars into vital infrastructure developments, such as the construction of Cambodia’s newest expressways and ports.  

Relations with the United States, meanwhile, remain particularly tense as Washington alleges that Phnom Penh might allow Chinese troops to be stationed at a naval base in the south of the country, which is undergoing heavy reconstruction by Chinese firms.

“The United States is troubled that the July 23 Cambodian national elections were neither free nor fair,” US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on Monday, while also announcing new visa restrictions on Cambodian officials and a pause of some foreign-assistance programs. 

“As the ruling Cambodian People’s Party forms a new government,” the State Department spokesman said, “authorities have an opportunity to improve the country’s international standing, including by restoring genuine multiparty democracy, ending politically motivated trials, reversing convictions of government critics, and allowing independent media outlets to reopen and function without interference.”

Virak Ou, founder and president of the Future Forum think-tank, reckons there will be a short-term shift in tone from Phnom Penh once the leadership succession takes place next month. 

“The old guard carries lots of old scars from the cold days,” Ou said, referring to Cold War tensions when most Western countries tacitly supported the Khmer Rouge during the 1980s after it was overthrown by defectors like Hun Sen, who were backed by Soviet-aligned Vietnam.

“Hun Sen does not trust the West, and it’s also difficult for the West to view Hun Sen and the old guard as a legitimate and positive force for democracy. The level of mistrust runs deep,” Ou said. 

China’s interests

At the same time, he added, Western democracies are also ready to change tack. They are willing to put aside “some of the ideals of human rights and democracy” toward a more pragmatic stance because of a rising China that has sought to bring Phnom Penh into its security fold. 

Satellite imagery of ongoing construction taken last month at the Ream Naval Base appears to show a jetty large enough to accommodate a naval destroyer, according to Planet Labs, an imaging-data company. 

The Pentagon’s latest defense paper on China explicitly states that the Cambodian naval base “will be the first [People’s Republic of China] overseas base in the Indo-Pacific.”

It is notable that as Phnom Penh undergoes a generational change, the embassies of most Western countries are being reshuffled. 

W Patrick Murphy, the current US ambassador, is expected to depart as soon as his nominated replacement is confirmed by the Senate, which could be before the end of the year.  

The European Union’s ambassador to Phnom Penh, Carmen Moreno, is also on her way out, set to be replaced in early September by Igor Driesmans, the current EU ambassador to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The ambassadors of Japan, Britain and Australia are relatively new to the country.

The US has imposed targeted sanctions on several Cambodian officials, including the head of Hun Sen’s personal bodyguard unit. It let its preferential trade scheme with Cambodia expire in 2021. 

The EU partially revoked some of Cambodia’s trade privileges in 2020 because of the alleged democratic deterioration in the country. 

Phnom Penh has claimed that it seeks rapprochement with the West, despite showing little sign of it. Even amid sanctions, most Western countries remain key importers of Cambodian goods. 

American trade with Cambodia rose from US$3.4 billion in 2017 to $12.6 billion last year, according to US trade data.

Although the Foreign Ministry reportedly wanted to remain neutral, Hun Sen became a vocal critic of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, and Cambodia supplied demining teams to help train their Ukrainian counterparts. 

US President Joe Biden thanked Hun Sen for his stance on the Russian war during an amicable visit to Phnom Penh last November for the annual ASEAN Summit, which Cambodia hosted as chair of the regional bloc in 2022. 

Since its tenure came to an end at the beginning of this year, Phnom Penh has become ever more repressive. 

It threatened to dissolve the opposition Candlelight Party, shut down the Western-funded Voice of Democracy, one of the last remaining independent news outlets, and convicted former CNRP leader Kem Sokha to 27 years of house arrest on trumped-up treason charges, which stem from the government’s accusation that the now-banned party was plotting a US-backed coup. 

Hun Sen has also alleged in recent months that the US Central Intelligence Agency sent spies to Phnom Penh in March and seemingly blamed the US when a number of drones were spotted flying into Cambodia from neighboring Vietnam.

Hun Sen, with his eldest son in tow, visited Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in February, their second visit to the Chinese capital.

The Western-educated dauphin

However, some reckon that once in power, Hun Manet and his youthful new administration will alter Cambodia’s foreign policy, at least in tone. 

Manet attended the elite US Military Academy in West Point, New York, and later studied at New York University and the University of Bristol in the UK. He participated in several Western-led exercises during his time as army chief.

Several other younger officials who are expected to be named ministers next month, when the new cabinet is formed, were also educated in the West. Chhay Rithysen, who is likely to become the next minister of rural planning, studied at America’s elite Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).  

There are economic incentives for rapprochement. Tourism is slow to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic and Chinese investment has been more limited than expected. Many officials in Phnom Penh now recognize that Cambodia has to diversify its trade and investment links and cannot be as reliant on Beijing as it was pre-pandemic.

According to a leaked list of the likely new ministers, which Asia Times reported on last week, Sok Chenda Sophea, currently head of the Council for the Development of Cambodia, a government body that oversees foreign investments, will become the new foreign minister next month.

An analyst who asked not to be named said Chenda Sophea would refocus the Foreign Ministry toward boosting economic development.

There was a realization that the ministry had become too bogged down with geopolitical issues, such as the US-China rivalry, and now needs to see its primary objective as attracting inward investment, the analyst said.  

Such a shift could appeal to Western governments that are now interested in supplying more investment to Cambodia. The European Investment Bank, the EU’s lending arm, has stepped up spending in the country since 2021. 

But few commentators expect a major foreign-policy realignment from Phnom Penh. 

Ou, of the Future Forum think-tank, reckons rapprochement will be more style than substance, “and it could be short-lived.”

He added: “The reality is China is Cambodia’s most important backer and there will be little incentive for Cambodia to shift away from China.”   

Commentators stress that a Western education such as Manet’s has little bearing on a leader’s future policies. After all, many of the world’s dictators studied at European or American universities. 

North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un studied in Switzerland. Much of the leadership of Cambodia’s genocidal Khmer Rouge regime was educated in Paris.

Moreover, there are doubts about how much independence Manet will wield once he becomes prime minister. Even after Hun Sen resigns from the premiership, he will remain as president of the ruling party and may create a new cabinet position for himself.

Domestically, Hun Sen will still rule from behind the scenes, aware that his inexperienced son and the new cabinet, composed of equally youthful figures, will need hand-holding in the first years. Hun Sen will likely also continue to accompany his son on visits to Beijing. 

Despite his genteel image, Manet has often parroted his father’s anti-Western tirades. Like his father, Manet says that only the ruling party can defend Cambodian sovereignty from Western-backed “terrorists,” a reference to the banned CNRP.

“If you look at Manet’s speeches, they emulate his dad’s, down to the voice and mannerisms,” said Sophal Ear, associate professor at Arizona State University’s Thunderbird School of Global Management.

Although the Hun family is consolidating its personalist rule over Cambodia, other political families that have their own networks with Chinese companies will maintain their influence. 

The family of Defense Minister Tea Banh in particular is believed to have a close network with defense officials in Beijing, and there are unconfirmed allegations that it is deeply connected to Chinese organized crime in Sihanoukville province, a regional fiefdom for the family.

Tea Seiha, the governor of Siem Reap province, is expected to succeed his father Tea Banh as the country’s next defense minister. 

Tea Banh’s brother Tea Vinh is the navy chief and therefore deeply connected to allegations that Chinese troops will be allowed access to the Ream Naval Base. Vinh was sanctioned by the US in 2021 ostensibly over corruption allegations tied to the development of the base.

Tea Banh and his children, including his likely successor Seiha, were the first Cambodians to receive Chinese-made vaccinations during the Covid-19 pandemic, something that Hun Sen seemingly wasn’t aware of when he claimed he would be the first to take the jab. 

The Chinese government and business community also have networks with other powerful political families in Cambodia, including the clan of Interior Minister Sar Kheng, whose son Sar Sokha is tipped to inherit his position.

Because Chinese influence networks within Cambodia do not run solely through the Hun family, any attempt to realign the country’s relations with the West may impact those networks, risking intra-party tensions over the spoils of power, analysts say.  

At the same time, the Cambodian economy has become wedded to China. Although Western governments, especially the EU, have increased investments, Chinese money is integral in Cambodia in areas where the West will not want to compete. 

Western governments are unwilling to fund the construction of highways or ports in Cambodia. At the same time, private Western investors have a minuscule stake in Cambodia’s now failing housing market, which now appears to be imploding after almost a decade of rampant growth. 

A report from Radio Free Asia last week highlighted the chronic levels of debt and foreclosures in Cambodia’s housing market, which ballooned in recent years as ordinary Chinese investors pumped money into what seemed a steady, long-term investment. 

But non-performing loans and evictions are on the rise, while many construction sites lie empty as Chinese and local investment has dried up. 

A young Manet administration will not want a major housing crisis early on, and support from Beijing may be the only way to avert that.

Follow David Hutt on Twitter at @davidhuttjourno.

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