MANILA- A significant incident occurred in the fiercely contested South China Sea just days after the original Foreign Foreign Minister Qin Gang arrived in Manila to resolve increasingly tense diplomatic relations.
On April 23, during a routine” sovereignty patrol” near the Second Thomas Shoal, two Chinese Coast Guard( CCG ) ships reportedly intercepted their ships. According to a PCG statement regarding the incident, the CCG” exhibited angry tactics” and” engaged in harmful manoeuvres.” & nbsp,
As the original Ferdinand Marcos Jr leadership turned back to traditional allies, including the US, the event marked at least the fifth such incident in the previous year only. Additionally, it happened just days before the president of the Philippines, who recently attended sizable US-Philippines more, arrives in the White House as new diplomatic military ties are beginning to take shape.
Marcos Jr. has emphasized that trade and investment, not geopolitics, will be the main focus of his five-day trip to Washington, where he is scheduled to meet with US President Joe Biden, top business figures in Congress, and give a speech at the influential Center for Strategic and International Studies( CSIS ) think tank.
On April 30, Marcos Jr. made his second trip to the country since taking office the previous years. The positive outlook on US relations stands in stark contrast to Manila’s current interactions with Beijing. & nbsp,
Foreign Minister Qin’s hosts in the Philippines paid him a rather tepid visit during his first trip to Manila in his capacity as the new diplomatic leader of China.
The days of cordial relations between top Chinese and Filipino diplomats, particularly during the early years of the pro-Beijing Rodrigo Duterte presidency( 2016 – 2022 ), are long gone. & nbsp,
The trip, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, was intended to” produce mutual trust” and” properly handle differences” between the parties. In a press briefing last month, the Chinese foreign ministry added,” China looks forward to strengthening communication with the & nbsp, Philippines, through this visit.”
The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs ( DFA ) also emphasized the necessity of continuing ongoing negotiations to increase bilateral trade and investment as well as the need for diplomatic solutions to”r ] egional security issues of mutual concern.”
Marcos Jr. secured new investment pledges totaling more than$ 22 billion during his January trip to Beijing. However, there are growing concerns that China may not keep its word, particularly as the Philippines strengthens America’s military presence there as a result of an expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement( EDCA ), particularly close to the South China Sea and the southern shores of Taiwan.
According to all indications, the Chinese foreign leader’s troubleshooting visit, which took place at the same time as significant US-Philippines wargames close to the South China Sea, was ineffective. The two legs were only able to agree on the necessity of establishing” more lines of connections” during his brief journey to Manila.
However, recent history, including the” beautiful era” of diplomatic relations under pro-Bachin Duterte, demonstrates that even courteous diplomatic ties frequently fall short of preventing serious escalation in the South China Sea. This was most notably demonstrated during the 2019 Reed Bank crisis, when a suspected Chinese military vessel sank an Indonesian fishing vessel there.
Marcos Jr. became the first Filipino chairman in recent memory to physically attend the Balikatan( shoulder to shoulder) exercises between the US and the Philippines not long after the Chinese envoy left. A report 17,600 soldiers and personnel, including those from Australia and Japan, took part in this year’s drills, which mimicked the falling of a hostile vehicle.
The Filipino president” witnessed the live-fire sea training involving the falling of an elderly Philippines Navy ship, hoping the land may benefit from enhanced cooperation with the United States ,” according to the Malacaang Palace.
China’s response can be seen in the event involving the seacoast police on April 23. During US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s view in February of last year, just one week after Manila announced the full application of EDCA, a Chinese ship aimed its military-grade light at an American coast guard ship.
From Manila’s approach, Beijing appears to be more interested in undermining the rapidly growing security partnership between the South Asian country and the US by using intimidation tactics rather than making actual concessions. As a result, Marcos Jr. ‘ s visit to the White House this week— the first in almost ten years— is particularly significant.
The need for the Philippine-US bond to” evolve” in accordance with the demands of the time has been emphasized by the president of Philippines.
Even days before taking off for Washington, DC, Marcos said in a mix of English and Tagalog,” We have to develop it because it is evolving, and we need to alter it. The environment we are facing in the South China Sea, the environment in Taiwan, North Korea are evolving.
Ma Teresita Daza, the spokesperson for foreign affairs, emphasized the” desire for collaborations not only with the United States to develop and it is critical because the conditions are changing” during a pre-departure presentation, emphasizing Manila’s growing sense of anxiety. There are many new difficulties that must be overcome for any agreement to be effective.
Given that the expanded EDCA gives the Pentagon access to local facilities in the north Philippines, tensions over Taiwan’s neighbor will undoubtedly be a hot topic. The Armed Forces of the Philippines( AFP ) has made it clear that, should the need arise, EDCA may be expanded even further. & nbsp,
Colonel Medel Aguilar, & nbsp, the AFP’s spokesperson, stated to the media last week that” we need a 360-degree protection capability for the[ AFP ]] if we are to protect our sovereignty and territorial integrity, including the protection of maritime resources that should be enjoyed by our people.”
The AFP spokesman continued,” Moderization also entails acquiring facilities, such as airports, camp for our soldiers, and places to store supplies in times of crisis.” We are the ones who actually gain from EDCA services in the end.
At the White House last week, Marcos Jr. and US counterpart Joe Biden may discuss Taiwan-related tensions, but the discussions will center on trade and investment, according to a renowned Filipino diplomat.
Despite a century-old bond, the Philippines and the US have rather low trade ties with their neighbors, including communist Vietnam, which is currently the seventh-largest trading partner of the United States.
The Philippines only exported$ 11 billion worth of goods to the US last year, compared to ten times that amount from a number of its neighbors. In a similar vein, US companies invested tens of billions in other Asian economies, while US foreign direct investment ( FDI ) stock in the Philippines reached$ 5.2 billion in 2020.
In order to increase America’s investment and trade footprint in Asia, Marcos Jr. will therefore argue that either a bilateral free trade agreement or further substantiation of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework ( IPEF ) is necessary.
We usually return to trade, not help, in our relationships with the US, as the Filipino leader stated shortly after winning the presidency last year.
In reference to his choice to add the US-sponsored IPEF, he added,” We have to open as much of the market as we can to industry, and that’s where this kind of agreement will come in.”
At @ Richeydarian, follow Richard Javad Heydari on Twitter.