Japan-Philippines moving toward US-led trilateral alliance

MANILA: During his two-day official visit to Manila last year, Fumio Kishida said,” I am honored to have the opportunity to be the first Japanese Prime Minister to communicate here at the Congress of the Philippines, which has a long history.”

The Japanese leader argued during the historic speech that the two nations have now entered a” golden age” of bilateral relations amid an unprecedented convergence of strategic interests.

Kishida traveled to Southeast Asia to strengthen defense ties with like-minded partners just one year after launching a new era in” realism diplomacy” and pledging to double Japan’s defense spending in terms of its gross domestic product ( GDP ).

Japan is currently pursuing closer defence cooperation with the neighboring country in addition to being a leading export destination and leading investor for the Philippines.

Kishida unveiled a new security aid item during his trip to Manila, which was highlighted by an ocean sensor system. As part of the growing bilateral maritime security cooperation, Japan is also anticipated to supply the Philippine Coast Guard( PCG ) with more multi-role vessels.

Importantly, Japan is pursuing a Reciprocal Access Agreement( RAA ) with the Philippines, which could eventually lead to expanded bilateral defense exchanges, such as regular wargames and partial basing access.

During his trip to Southeast Asia, Kishida also traveled to Malaysia, where he advocated for the” new vision of cooperation”& nbsp, which was focused on maintaining a rules-based order in the area. & nbsp,

Malaysia has been chosen as one of Japan’s new Official Security Assistance ( OSA ) program beneficiaries, along with the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Fiji, with a focus on rebuffing Chinese naval assertiveness.

The state-backed newspaper Global Times in China criticized Kishida’s visit as a” troublemaking journey” that offered” gift packs ,” which primarily contained” lethal weapons ,” because it was aware of the geopolitical significance of his regional tour.

All wind companions

Kishida wasn’t making his second trip to the area. In the midst of Tokyo’s burgeoning strategic ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations( ASEAN) bloc, Shinzo Abe, a former prime minister of Japan, had frequently visited the area.

In the past ten years, Kishida has played a key role in the rapidly growing tactical ties between Japan and the Philippines due to their shared concerns about China.

Under the leadership of past Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, Manila’s relations with the US and China underwent significant changes, but Japan was able to keep a positive momentum.

Then-president Rodrigo Duterte and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met on August 30, 2019, at Beijing’s National Aquatics Center. Photo: Robinson Ninal / Philippine Presidential Photo

In fact, Duterte slowly endorsed increased military participation with Japan despite frequently criticizing the West in favor of China. Teodoro Locsin, a member of Duterte’s top cabinet, and Delfin Lorenzana traveled to Tokyo last year for their first-ever” 2 2″ meeting in order to” strengthen defense cooperation in light of the increasingly harsh security environment.”

Although Duterte’s rhetoric toward Beijing was generally accommodative, his top diplomat and defense chief expressed” major concern” over the coastal confidence of the Eastern power and, along with their Japanese rivals,” highly opposed” any unilateral action that jeopardizes regional peace and security.

The Philippines, like Japan, voted to suspend Russia’s participation in the United Nations Human Rights Council while the then-president of the Philippines continued to maintain” neutrality” regarding the Ukraine war.

In the midst of rising tensions with China in the South China Sea, Japan had also gradually increased relationships with other like-minded regional says, most notably Vietnam and Malaysia, which likewise received coastal security assistance from Tokyo. & nbsp,

Kishida invited the leaders of the Philippines and Malaysia to the 50th Anniversary of ASEAN-Japan Friendship and Cooperation summit in Tokyo in December as part of his most recent South Asian trip.

However, the Philippines— a friend US treaty ally strategically situated between the Western Pacific and the South China Sea — represents a significant award for Japan in many ways.

A new age in” authenticity geopolitics” was promised by Kishida during his keynote speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last year. At the time, he declared that Japan” would be more vigilant than ever in tackling the problems and problems that face Japan, Asia, and the earth.”

Japan is expanding its network of military cooperation abroad in addition to bolstering its domestic defenses, with a particular emphasis on Southeast Asia, where Tokyo enjoys enormous grace.

Japan has consistently topped the list of ASEAN’s preferred external partners among regional thought leaders in annual surveys conducted by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies( ISEAS ) in Singapore.

This is particularly true in the Philippines, where Japan is regarded as an” all-weather ally” that has benefited the economy more than any other country and is now exploring military cooperation like never before.

Kishida announced a number of new agreements during his meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos in an effort to forge an incredibly detailed partnership. These agreements included construction, mining, the environment, natural resources, and tourism.

Japan, which is already constructing Manila’s first train among other multi-billion money jobs, also vowed to support system enhancement under the guidance of a High Level Joint Committee on Infrastructure Development and Economic Cooperation. & nbsp,

The author was informed by a senior Chinese cabinet member that Japan is also looking into significant manufacturing investments that could possibly make the Philippines the center of the region’s automotive industry.

In the direction of a multilateral alignment

In order to improve the Southeast Asian country’s maritime domain awareness capacity compared to China, Kishida also formally unveiled the Official Security Assistance( OSA ) of Japan, which will start with a$ 4 million grant to equip the Philippine Navy with coastal radar systems.

In order to improve its maritime safety features, Japan is even anticipated to supply at least five additional 97-meter-long vessels for the PCG.

Yet, this is probably just the beginning of the ice. A Reciprocal Access Agreement ( RAA) to” further strengthen defense cooperation between the two countries” was also finalized by the parties.

The Visiting Forces Agreement-style deal will probably facilitate also larger and more powerful joint military exercises once finalized, with Spanish parliamentary ratification, as well as the transfer of more advanced weapons systems to be primarily aimed at China.

On December 11, 2022, commanders from the US, Japan, and the Philippines pose at Camp Asaka in Japan. Twitter Screengrab / Stars and Stripes image

We are aware of the advantages of having this structure to our defense and military personnel as well as to maintaining peace and stability in our area, Marcos Jr. boldly declared in front of his Chinese host.

Given that Japan and the Philippines are close to Taiwan, the two factors also made it clear that they were committed to forming a de facto multilateral alignment with the US.

Japan believes that assistance from ASEAN countries, particularly the Philippines, is essential to preventing any potential Chinese dynamic action against the autonomous democratic island that Beijing views as a rebellious province that needs to be” reunified” with the island.

Both sides’ foreign and defence ministers directly” understood the importance of each country’s individual treaty alliance with the United States and that of enhancing cooperation with local partner countries” last year.

A Japan-Philippines-US ( JAPUS) trilateral alliance would likely be the logical next strategic move after Manila gave the US Pentagon access to valuable bases close to Taiwan’s southern shores and started looking into a VFA-style deal with Tokyo.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian at @ Richeyarian on X, formerly known as Twitter.