MANILA – Japan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) wrapped up a special summit in Tokyo over the weekend, marking 50 years of bilateral relations. Ties between the two sides are deep and friendly thanks to Japan’s pivotal role in post-war economic development and industrialization throughout the Southeast Asian region.
With flagging approval ratings at home, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also welcomed the confab as an opportunity to boost his leadership credentials. Last month, he visited Manila and Kuala Lumpur to officially launch a new era of Japanese “realism diplomacy” with a hard focus on military cooperation with like-minded regional states.
For their part, ASEAN leaders also welcomed the opportunity to further deepen strategic cooperation with Tokyo, which has helped create a more multipolar order in Southeast Asia. The 50th Commemorative Summit of the ASEAN-Japan Friendship and Cooperation focused on all relevant areas of bilateral relations, including people-to-people ties and investments.
But rising concerns over China were also a central theme, especially with maritime disputes between Beijing and Manila reaching perilous new levels in recent weeks, raising regional fears of a destabilizing kinetic conflict.
Accordingly, Japan and ASEAN nations zeroed in on “maritime security” cooperation and vowed to “strengthen dialogue and cooperation for the maintenance of maritime security and safety, maritime order based on the rule of law, including freedom and safety of navigation and overflight and unimpeded commerce”, a joint statement issued after the summit said.
Though not naming Beijing directly, the two sides underscored their commitment to “enhance maritime domain awareness as well as cooperation among coastguards and relevant law enforcement agencies, strengthen cooperation on maritime capacity building, and ensure the resolution of disputes by peaceful means, without resorting to threat or use of force in accordance with universally recognized principles of international law.”
Southeast Asian states at loggerheads with China over disputed territories in the South China Sea are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries of new Japanese initiatives in the region, most notably Tokyo’s newly launched Official Security Assistance (OSA) package.
On one hand, Malaysia is set to receive a 400 million yen (US$2.8 million) aid package to acquire “warning and surveillance” equipment. The two sides also signed a new comprehensive security partnership agreement just weeks after Vietnam.
Most consequentially, however, is Japan’s blossoming defense ties with the Philippines amid shared concerns over China’s rising assertiveness in nearby waters. In a new deal, Tokyo is set to provide new radar systems to the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).
But a possible Reciprocal Access Agreement that if finalized would allow for the deployment of Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) to conduct regular drills on Philippine soil, enhance bilateral interoperability and expand joint activities between the two sides’ militaries would be a bigger salvo across China’s bow.
“We are in agreement that we considered to be extremely significant between our two countries is a Reciprocal Access Agreement that will give us a greater capability in terms of not only security but also in terms of disaster preparedness, alleviation, and adjustment,” said Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr on the sidelines of the ASEAN-Japan meeting in Tokyo.
“And that is something that is I believe is very, very significant and that it will bring to us greater capacity to maintain the peace in [the South China Sea],” Marcos Jr added.
Third force
Though a US treaty ally, Japan has largely been seen as an alternative and mainly constructive force in Southeast Asia.
Unlike the US, which is increasingly seen primarily as a military power in the region, post-war Japan has historically relied on its economic prowess to win influence in ASEAN.
This was partly due to Tokyo’s commitment to repent for its World War II atrocities as well as enhance its economic competitiveness by tapping into the region’s comparatively cheap labor and vast natural resources.
And unlike in Northeast Asia, especially in China and South Korea, Japan has been particularly successful in rehabilitating its post-war image in Southeast Asia.
If anything, Tokyo has consistently been ranked as the most favorable external partner for Southeast Asian thought leaders, according to the authoritative annual survey conducted by the Singapore-based Institute for Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS).
That’s in part because Japan is still the top source of big-ticket infrastructure investments in Southeast Asia. The country’s pre-pandemic new investment pledges were valued at $367 billion – dwarfing China’s $255 billion.
If anything, China’s much-vaunted Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has run into multiple obstacles, with Beijing’s overall overseas infrastructure investment activities down by some 40% in recent years amid an economic slowdown at home and as well as regulatory bottlenecks in BRI host nations.
There are, however, also geopolitical and ideological reasons why Japan remains so popular in Southeast Asia. Unlike China, the country doesn’t have territorial disputes with any ASEAN nation.
Moreover, although Japan is part of the Group of Seven (G7) nations, it’s still seen as more of an “Asian” rather than a “Western” nation. Japanese leaders refrain from directly criticizing the human rights and democracy records of ASEAN states.
Nor has Japan pressed regional nations to join Western sanctions against key energy-producing nations such as Russia and Iran, both of which have had historically warm ties with many Southeast Asian nations.
Though wary of China’s maritime assertiveness and poor treatment of its own Muslim minorities including the Uighurs, Southeast Asian nations such as Malaysia and Indonesia are even more critical of America’s policy towards the Muslim World, especially in the context of its role in the latest Israel-Hamas conflict.
New assertiveness
No wonder, then, ASEAN nations have broadly welcomed the emergence of a more assertive Japan over the past decade, beginning with the long tenure of the late prime minister Shinzo Abe, whose key proteges are currently in charge of Tokyo’s foreign and defense policies.
Prime Minister Kishida, who earlier served as Abe’s chief diplomat, has vowed to continue his mentor’s efforts by launching a new era of “realism diplomacy”, which is focused on forging closer security cooperation with like-minded global players but especially in ASEAN.
To bolster its credibility, Japan is set to double its defense spending as a percentage of its GDP while ramping up its development of next-generation military technology, including sixth-generation fighter jets and long-range missile systems. Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong visited Tokyo last month, where he openly welcomed a more assertive Japan in a historic speech before the Japanese Diet.
Though highly critical of the West, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has also embraced tighter security cooperation with Japan with an eye on China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. But no ASEAN state has been more enthusiastic in expanding military cooperation with Japan than the Philippines, a fellow US treaty ally.
In 2018, the Philippines hosted a JSDF armored vehicle unit for the first time in the post-war period. Four years later, in another first, Japan deployed fighter jets for joint exercises with the Philippine Air Force.
At the same time, Japan provided multi-role vessels and a whole host of capacity-building assistance to the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), which has quickly transformed into arguably the most formidable civilian maritime law enforcement agency in all of ASEAN.
Crucially, Tokyo is also exploring a possible Japan-Philippines-US (JAPHUS) trilateral alliance to deter a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan as well as a potential armed conflict in the South China Sea.
During his visit to Manila last month, Kishida became the first Japanese leader to address a joint session of the Philippine legislature, where he praised the remarkable transformation in bilateral ties over the past decade and vowed a new era of comprehensive partnership.
The Japanese leader also effectively launched Japan’s new Official Security Assistance initiative in Manila, with the Philippines as the program’s biggest beneficiary so far.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X, formerly Twitter, at @Richeydarian