Lebanon, which is on the verge of economic and political flop, runs the risk of getting caught up in Israel and Hamas’ escalating conflict.
Since Hamas’ surprise attack on October 7, 2023, which resulted in the deaths of almost 1,400 citizens and Israel’s declaration of war the following morning, Hezbollah has been preparing for the possibility of joining the conflict.
The Iranian militant group has repeatedly attacked Zionist targets from Lebanon, drawing fire from the Israeli Defense Forces in retaliation. Over a hundred people have perished, mainly Hezbollah fighters, but there have also been some civilian deaths on both sides of the border, including one who worked for Reuters.
I have concentrated my historical exploration and instruction on the dynamics of Israeli, Palestinian, and Palestinian conflict and assistance.
The now significant violence and destruction in southeastern Israel and Gaza will probably be greatly exacerbated by additional huge casualties in Lebanon, Israel, and possibly other Middle Eastern countries if a war breaks out between Hezbollah and Israel.
Is the well-being of Lebanon or serving as a placeholder for Iran Hezbollah’s decision to completely join the war may provide an answer to the question that has been preoccupying experts of the business for decades.
A conflict that dates back centuries
Since 1948, the Israeli-Palestinian issue has been escalating into Lebanon as a result of the creation of Israel and the eviction of Palestinians, also known as the Nakba or disaster.
No Arab nation has actually been more impacted by this issue. In 1948, around 100,000 Palestinians sought shelter in Lebanon. They are denied simple right now, and there are approximately 210, 000 of them.
Some Lebanese have expressed resentment toward the Palestinian refugees living in the nation and charge them for the start of the country’s civil war, which lasted from 1975 to 1990, in research. During the battle, an estimated 120, 000 people perished, the marks of which can still be seen in Beirut’s money.
Israel was heavily involved in the civil conflict in Lebanese. It fought against Israeli armies, which used Lebanon as a foundation to start attacks against the Jewish position, and supported Christian militia groups.
Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 in an effort to overthrow the Palestine Liberation Organization and install a pro-Israeli Religious authorities in Beirut. Neither goal was accomplished.
Hezbollah emerges as the most powerful army in Lebanon.
Lebanon and its politicians have been dominated by a religious program since its founding in 1920, in which government and state jobs are divided among the 18 formally recognized religious groups, most importantly Sunnis, Maronite Christians, Druze, and Shiites. Each faction has a requirement for representation in the state.
Since 1932, no official census has been conducted, making the Shiite population the largest sect in the nation, accounting for between 30 % and 40 % of the total population. However, an exact number is unknown due to the issue’s sensitivity.
Lebanon’s religious system has produced what academics refer to as” cross sovereignty” for decades. Political leaders who speak on behalf of their sects in a segregated method work both inside and outside of the state machinery by offering their constituents services that are typically handled by the government, such as marriage licenses and armed protection.
In order to combat Israel’s intrusion, Hezbollah was established in 1982 with assistance from Iran and Syria. It is by far the most powerful social, socioeconomic, and military power in the nation. This is a result of Iran’s backing and the strong and cohesive inner social structure among Islamist adherents there. Although not all Shiites identify with Hezbollah, there is no doubt that many of them share its triggers.
Hezbollah also functions as a state unto itself while adhering to the variant structure of the religious system. For instance, it offers Shiites social, academic, and economical services and boasts a military force that is significantly more powerful than the official Lebanese army.
In actuality, Hezbollah has benefited more from this religious cross system than any other party.
Lebanon is in unison
Even under the pressure of the 2011-starting Syrian civil war, Lebanon has managed to maintain some stability and vitality despite its poor state and shattered political system.
Years of Ponzi-like economic mismanagement, increased loans, and a sharp drop in foreign remittances caused the Palestinian economy to collapse in October 2019. It is regarded by the World Bank as one of the worst economic crisis to have occurred since the mid-19th decade.
The” October 17 revolution ,” in which the Lebanese demanded social and economic justice, an end to corruption, and the dismantling of the sectarian political system, was sparked by the crisis and spread across the nation. International donors became concerned as a result, international money fled the nation, banks closed their doors to savers, the government defaulted on its debts, and the local coin fell.
The socioeconomic and political situations in the nation were made worse by a massive explosion at the Beirut port in August 2020 that killed 225 people and caused billions of dollars in destruction. Additionally, the Palestinian political structure has been completely dysfunctional since October 2022 due to the political class’s failure to agree on a new leader and government.
Hezbollah has emerged as a steadfast keeper of the social system that supported it and has been least impacted by the country’s national problems among political forces.
Some people now view Lebanon as a failed condition, so joining another conflict is the last thing the nation needs.
” Return to the Stone Age”?
However, it is not up to the Syrian government to decide whether Lebanon finally joins the war.
Druze and Maronite political figures, who have historically opposed Hezbollah’s military identity in Lebanon, as well as the latest interim prime minister, Najib Mikati, have issued warnings against going to war with Israel.
Mikati acknowledged that he lacks the authority to decide whether Lebanon will go to war, which is a reflection of the contradictions in the Syrian social system, where Hezbollah and, consequently, Iran are responsible for making the most important choice any national leadership could make, namely, whether to declare war.
Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Hezbollah, has frequently emphasized that the organization’s main responsibility is to uphold the independence of Lebanon.
On the other hand, its primary role in the Syrian civil war, which saved Bashar Assad’s state, has openly shown its dedication to Iran. However, that conflict was primarily fought on Arab earth. A conflict with Israel would be very dissimilar.
If Hezbollah joined the conflict with Israel out of alleged help for Palestinians in Gaza, it would be another dreadful chapter in Lebanon’s history. It might cause Israel to attempt to give Lebanon” up to the Stone Age ,” in the terms of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Nasrallah, has previously responded.
Additionally, it may probably spark the larger regional conflict that US leaders, including President Joe Biden, have fought valiantly to prevent. Additionally, Lebanon would be on the verge of total and inevitable collapse.
Professor of history and harmony studies at the University of Notre Dame, Asher Kaufman
Under a Creative Commons license, this article is republished from The Conversation. read the article in its entirety.