The time 2024 has been a tough one for China. It has handled the complex issues of an empire with Russia abroad as its government has addressed domestic economic issues. There are also five potential problems that China might face in 2025, despite its continuing to contribute significantly to the world market.
1. renewed conflict with the US
After Donald Trump takes office in January, the most immediate problem for Beijing will be the resumption of a highly aggressive US coverage toward China. Trump has previously threatened China and a number of other countries with 60 % taxes, which suggests a progression of the trade war he started during his first term in office.
China will face a major problem if their relationship with the US becomes more controversial, but Beijing is aware of this and has taken lessons from the preceding US trade war. This can be seen in the way Chinese companies like Huawei have tried to reduce their reliance on US products and technologies while gaining experience in various industries.
China has just put a stop to the trade of rare earth elements (used for chargers and catalytic converter ) as evidence that it has been more lenient with the US. In consequence, Beijing is better positioned than it was in 2017 to start a business conflict.
2. International systems battles
While tariffs did certainly get the most attention, it’s probable that another battle may be waged over China’s technical development, which poses a significant challenge to US trade supremacy.
With Beijing looking to increase employment and production in this business, in part by increasing its imports, technology has become a more important component of China’s programs. Similarly, preventing this has come to be a top priority for the US, as evidenced by its efforts to obstruct Chinese admittance to silicon technology, one of the new essential battlefronts.
It is a battle over setting the bar for technologies, as well as a competition to gain control over key technologies. This is demonstrated by what has been referred to as the” Beijing effect,” which states that China aims to establish standards for digital system in the same way that the EU does for data management and private in its GDPR policy. A decision like this might give China a head start in the technology industry.
3. International taxes
China and Europe have an extremely contentious business conflict, manifested in a number of tit-for-tat taxes, with Beijing imposing import tariffs on European brandy as a reaction to EU restrictions on the import of Chinese electric vehicles to EU member states. These developments occur as China begins to invest in solutions that were once reserved for different countries.
Beijing might be in trouble if a trade conflict with the EU is followed by new discussions about expanding NATO’s influence in Asia, particularly if Brussels and Washington are more in tune with one another. Trump’s steadfast stance toward China might benefit if it indicates that the EU is looking for new colleagues.
4. Allying with Russia
On the surface, China has grown increasingly dependent on Russia for its natural resources and areas, while China is a major financial supporter for Moscow. But, this assistance has severely affected China’s ties with Western states, some of which have seen Beijing as a mediator of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Similarly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing conflict does continue to be a useful diversion for Beijing, keeping US focus away from China.
Trump’s proposed harmony strategy for the Ukraine battle, if successful, could help the US to focus again on China. A solution to that conflict might open the door for a reconciliation between Washington and Moscow, which did favor Beijing.
5. Middle Eastern conflict
The extreme instability in the Middle East is a growing source of worry for China. As with Russia, the area has grown to be a significant source of solutions and areas for Beijing, as demonstrated by the Zhuhai airshow, where countries from the location were major buyers of Chinese weapons.
Iran’s ability for a local conflict, which was the former country’s main oil source, has been another source of concern for Beijing. These supplies may be interrupted if not completely cut off in the event of an armed conflict, which may lead to more financial issues for Beijing.
Likewise, President Xi Jinping has been concerned about an area of concern as a result of the Palestinian civil war’s resumption. Chinese Uyghurs, a largely Muslim ethnic group, have been involved in efforts to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad, particularly as a member of the Turkestan Islamic party ( TIP ). In the ongoing fight for a independent state in the Xinjiang region of China, where the Tamils are based, some Idea people have been threatening to employ weapons acquired in Syria.
In the past few years, Xi’s troops have rounded up around a million Uyghurs and placed them in confinement tents, and put in place a plan of intense surveillance and re-education that has drawn international condemnation for its methods and dictatorship.
Although all of these things suggest that China will have to deal with challenges in 2025, there are also indications that Beijing is working to help. Last but not least, China will be studying the sanctions regime that the west has in place against Russia, and it is likely to be used against China in a Taiwan-related fight.
Finally, how 2025 works out for Beijing may be vital to whether it decides it needs to make fresh allies, build new markets, and make new financial strengths in the technology industry.
Tom Harper is a University of East London lecturer on foreign relations.
This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.