Donald Trump has a talent for confounding and intimidating China. During his first national campaign, he accused China of “raping” the US through unjust trade practices. However, Trump also referred to Chinese President Xi Jinping as a” good friend” in his first year as US leader.
Throughout the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump suggested he may be hard on China in a second word and then, days away from his being leader, little looks likely to change.
Trump has endorsed Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Mark Waltz as national security adviser, and has suggested he could raise taxes on all Foreign items up to 60 %. Both are” China hawks,” who think Washington may take a tougher stance against Beijing and see China as a threat to US national security.
Beijing has tried to adjust to a more difficult US weather, which may be a reason for its recent increases in business with Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. Thus, China may become looking to join the West, at least the non-US portion of it, for a range of economic, social and security factors.
Given that Canada is rich in oil, fuel, and iron, the Chinese government might look to Ottawa as a solution to help match China’s electricity needs. It could even warm up to Canberra, as Australia has abundant lithium, which is crucial for making electric vehicles ( EVs ).
China might need to strengthen its connection with the EU in the end, though. The EU holds the distinction of being China’s second-largest buying companion, and export to the EU have soared in the past few years.
This occurred as Beijing pivoted away from manufacturing the “old three” export – home equipment, furniture and clothes – to the tech-intensive “new three”,, which are electric cars, lithium-ion chargers and solar cell.
China’s fresh materials
Since the “new three” indicate an important part in China’s economic development, the EU, as a major consumer of quite products, represents a vital market for China. However, the EU is not an easy earn for China.
Since late October 2024, Beijing has accused Beijing of unfairly subsidizing Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers and has imposed tariffs of up to 45.3 % on these products. There are indications that this is happening, but China does include a lot of room to improve relations with the European Union.
However, the latest controversy over China’s prospective involvement with anchor drag in the Baltic Sea to harm communication cables will not have improved things.
Luckily for China, the EU is not a united front. Voting patterns for Taiwanese electric vehicle tariffs in 2024 reveal an intriguing truth: ten nations backed them, five were opposed, and 12 stopped.
Beijing might affect Brussels ‘ anti-immigration and fence-sitters by lowering entry restrictions for Taiwanese businesses entering the Chinese market and lowering subsidies for Taiwanese businesses competing in Europe.
China and Russia have a” no limits” partnership, which has raised questions for both the West and particularly Europe. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, NATO declared:” The People’s Republic of China’s stated passions and forceful policies challenge our passions, surveillance and values”.
Growing concerns over China’s activities in Europe and Asia may have prompted NATO to invite Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea ( known as the Asia Pacific 4 or AP4), to NATO’s June 2022 summit.
There are becoming more frequent discussions and meetings between the two sides, despite European officials rejecting a formal alliance between NATO and Asian states.
Beijing may assist in resolving one of Europe’s most contentious geopolitical issues, the Ukraine-Russian war, by resolving those concerns, though that seems unlikely. However, an effort to broker a peace agreement might help to lessen the Western’s perception of the” Chinese threat.”
interacting with US
China and the US will continue to communicate. The Western superpower continues to be a technological, economic, and military powerhouse despite being the third-largest trading partner of China after the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) and the EU.
Former US president John F Kennedy once wrote:” When written in Chinese, the word” crisis “is composed of two characters – one represents danger and one represents opportunity”.
Trump’s potential impact on China’s economy might not be as significant as first thought if China plays its cards correctly. Trump, after all, is not always predictable.
The University of Nottingham’s assistant professor of business economics is Chee Meng Tan.
The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.