A senior US naval commander has warned that robots may not be sufficient to end a potential conflict with China while the US looks to build out its Pacific fleet.
US Indo-Pacific Command ( INDOPACOM), the commander of Admiral Sam Paparo, recently stated in a presentation to the Brookings Institution that despite drones being useful in tight spaces, US forces will still need air and sea superiority in comparison to China.
He pointed out that little robots, though effective in areas like the Taiwan Strait, require considerable assistance from foundations such as Okinawa, Japan, which is 436 nautical miles ahead.
Paparo criticized the exaggerated contrast between Ukraine’s use of robots against Russia and a possible conflict with China over Taiwan, noting that China’s military features, including 2, 100 soldiers and three plane ships, far exceed those of Russia.
Despite advancements in autonomous technology, Paparo emphasized that human decision-making is still essential in conflict situations. The US Department of Defense’s ( DOD ) Replicator initiative aims to deploy thousands of unmanned platforms, underscoring the value of a comprehensive military strategy and readiness.
Unmanned surface vessels ( USV ) in naval operations have previously been discussed in detail by Asia Times.
USVs provide strategic advantages and essential risks, transforming the nature of modern naval war. Due to their low cost-effectiveness, cash-strapped or smaller warships can create flocks of these robots that overwhelm more sophisticated adversaries with sheer numbers.
The US Navy is not only modest and cash-strapped, but it is facing significant obstacles to expanding its maritime manufacturing capacity. China now has the country’s largest navy in ships numbers. The US DOD’s 2023 China Military Power Report mentions that the Army Navy ( PLA-N) has 370 boats and boats, with over 140 floor soldiers.
According to reports from Asia Times, US marine shipping is confronted by China’s rapid marine expansion, which is a result of deeper shipbuilding and industrial capacity issues. China’s 13 marine factories underscore this gap, each outpacing the combined production of all seven US marine shipyards.
While the US grapples with resources cuts, skilled labour shortages and governmental constraints, China has leveraged civil-military fusion to increase productivity, combine cutting-edge human technologies and sustain cost efficiency.
Given that maritime warfare’s outcomes are frequently determined by fleet size, China’s numerical advantage may outweigh the US’s quantitative advantage. Additionally, the US Navy’s rely on cheap, high-capability ships like airplane carriers raises concerns about risk to China’s increasingly complex missile arsenal, including fast systems.
While USVs cannot totally replace conventional warships, they may do complex, unpredictable maneuvers, escape detection with small profiles and achieve powerful strikes on high-value targets. This technology is crucial for asymmetrical war because it strengthens smaller forces ‘ ability to defeat larger, more sophisticated fleets.
Nonetheless, their potential as a “wonder weapons” is tempered by major limitations. For one, the terrible sea environment often accelerates the degeneration of their techniques, and as they grow more intelligent, they become attractive targets for cyberattacks.
Communication vulnerabilities, such as reliance on external antennas and encryption keys, expose USVs to jamming and interception. Supply chain dependencies, notably for advanced microchips, further complicate their deployment.
These limitations suggest that USVs should complement other defensive measures, like naval mines and anti-ship missiles, rather than serve as standalone solutions.
USVs may be unable to sustain operations in prolonged, large-scale conflicts, where traditional warships ‘ endurance and magazine depth are vital in defeating enemy drone and missile attacks.
In a piece for Warrior Maven earlier this month, Kris Osborn cited Carrier Strike Group-2 commander Rear Admiral Javon” Hak” Hakimsadeh’s emphasis on the crucial role of “magazine depth” in preventing drone swarm attacks on US ships in the Red Sea.
Hakimsadeh argued that the operation’s effectiveness depends in large part on maintaining ongoing engagements with large numbers of drones. As a result of US Navy warships ‘ successful intercepts of numerous Houthi anti-ship cruise missiles and drones using a combination of interceptors, deck-mounted guns, and air-to-air missiles, the recent deployment in the Red Sea underscored the need for adequate ammunition reserves.
Significant technical difficulties are also present when coordinating large USV fleets in real-time during contested operations.
Jingchen Wang and other authors make reference to the difficult task of coordinating large USV fleets in a peer-reviewed Journal of Marine Science and Engineering article from February 2024, especially when ensuring that they move together safely and without colliding.
Wang and others suggest a dual-layered control system: one system plans the fleet’s movement while the other manages the real-time actions of each vehicle. They point out, however, that the most difficult part is finding a balance between avoiding obstacles and other vehicles.
The authors claim that the system uses a more flexible and effective method than older ones to calculate safe distances based on the speed and direction of each USV in order to prevent crashes.
Additionally, real-time adjustments and constant communication between vehicles are required, which becomes more challenging as the fleet expands.
Wang and others claim that the system has a duty to prioritize safety over following formation plans. They point out that managing a large fleet is challenging because it must constantly balance the need for quick calculations with safety.
LUA-T becomes crucial to ensuring their effective use in naval operations as Paparo warned against relying solely on unmanned systems to maintain an edge over China.
However, Jaquelyn Banas and other authors make reference to improved collision avoidance systems for shipboard operations in a conference paper from October 2020. Effective MUM-T requires more autonomy to reduce crew workload, robust designs to withstand saltwater and turbulence, and improved collision avoidance systems for shipboard operations.
Banas and others make the point that the current lack of unmanned capabilities is frequently compounded by the lack of line-of-sight data links and endurance. For safe and effective maritime MUM-T operations, according to them, sophisticated control interfaces, task-based autonomy, and reliable communication systems like Link 16 are essential.