Why it's China's turn now - Asia Times

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In the next half of the 20th centuries, macrohistorians like Paul Kennedy, Francis Fukuyama, and Alvin Toffler created’grand stories’ to forecast changes in the coming decades. They covered various aspects of society including philosophy, technologies, religion and culture.

These models were used by macrohistorians to forecast significant historic changes in geopolitics, strength relations, and economics. Interestingly, none of them predicted that China may come as a opponent to US international preeminence.

In the late 20th centuries, fantastic stories fell out of favor. Intellectuals claimed that fantastic or meta-theories neglected the differences between civilizations. Microhistories tended to elicit a Eurocentric view of the world by never acknowledging diverse cultural ideas.

When viewed in a historic context, China’s rise as a global power is less unexpected. For much of recorded history, including the colonial time, China was the world’s largest business, rivaled only by India. The US did not take the top spot until the close of the 19th centuries.

In 2030, China is expected to regain the top position as the world’s largest economy  YouTube Screengrab: https ://www. tube. com/watch? v=4-2nqd6-ZXg

However, some researchers may have predicted the pace at which China’s modernization was quick. The West took two decades to modernize, China did it in less than 50 years. China acted as the world’s stock and a tarantula in the website of the global supply chain as a result. China had come to a halt if it were to be shut down, and the rest of the world do.

China has recently changed from a low-cost consumer goods manufacturer to a cutting-edge producer of electronics and natural tech. Robots and AI have taken the place of cheap labour. A new stock for Xiaomi, formerly a smartphone manufacturer, produces a new electric vehicles every 76 hours, or 40 per minute, without being touched by human hands.

In his international bestseller When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order, American artist Martin Jacques chronicled China’s development. The second significant change to the world’s political and cultural environment in 500 years, according to Jacques, will result from China’s future economic strength.

Jacques argued that China ’s arrival as a significant economic, social, and cultural energy is a traditional inevitability, requiring a adjustment in the American view of the world. He writes:

“There has been an notion by the American popular that there is only one way of being present, especially by adopting Western-style institutions, values, customs and beliefs, such as the rule of law, the free marketplace and political norms.

This, one might add, is a view that is normally held by people and cultures who view themselves as more developed and ‘civilized ’ than others: that those who are lower down on the evolutionary scale must become more like those who are higher up in order to advance. ”

Jaques brought up Fukuyama, who predicted that a new idealism that may embodie the American concepts of the free business and democracy would be the foundation of the post-Cold War world.

Fukuyama, in his 1992 report “The End of History”, argued that Western liberal democracy had won and that all countries in the world, including China, did eventually accept American liberal democracy.

Fukuyama did not anticipate the burgeoning crisis in Western democracies, the West’s partial deindustrialization, the rise in wealth concentrations, or Donald Trump’s election as president of “America First ” in his 1992 writing.

Trump sparked a trade war with China that his successor, Joe Biden, has gotten worse. The cost of the expensive products from China had been a boon for American consumers, but they also came with a price: the deindustrialization of major cities in the country and the loss of millions of jobs.

The trading conflict between the West and China is a repeat of the trading conflict with Japan on a larger scale. Japan decimated the Western automotive and consumer electronics industries in the 1980s. The West realized that Japan had eaten its lunch when it was too late. The Chinese are now ready to eat dinner.

Workers and Merchants

In 2001, US president Bill Clinton gave the green light for China ’s membership of the World Trade Organization ( WTO ), the American-led body that regulates global trade.

China agreed to lower tariffs on non-agricultural goods and take several steps to expand China’s financial sector, including those involving the life insurance and securities sectors.

According to the US government, China would become more politically liberal if its economy were liberalized. Fukuyama’s “End of History ” appeared to give credence to this theory. As it turned out, China liberalized economically but not politically. The Chinese government wished to maintain a tarn between government and business.

The American futurist Larry Taub, author of “The Spiritual Imperative”,   framed the conflict between China and the West in terms of Worker and Merchant, archetypes he adapted from Indian philosophy. Worker and Merchant, together with Scholar and Protector, are four generic categories that form the basis of societies.

The Indian “social-psychological” archetypes emerged after humans transitioned from nomadic, hunter-gatherer life to form communities and cities. Each archetype covers a vital role in a community – teaching, producing, trading, and protecting.

Different psychological profiles and worldviews are present in each of the four archetypes. Workers, in Taub’s model all those who work for a wage or salary, value safety, stability, and solidarity. They are followers, not leaders. Merchants value opportunity, innovation, and freedom. The main concern is generating wealth.  

The four archetypes Taub adapted from Indian philosophy

In Indian philosophy, the four archetypes are in a cyclical struggle, one trying to overcome the other. The Indians used astronomical timescales that spanned millions of years, but Taub contends that the four archetypes can account for both the present and the future.

The current conflict between the West and China is a battle between the Worker and Merchant worldview, according to Taub’s model. China ’s psychological profile most closely resembles the Worker archetype, and the West, especially the US, most closely correlates with the Merchant archetype.

Neoliberalism

According to Taub, the Industrial Revolution’s conflict between the Worker and the Merchant began in the 19th century. The Merchants were demanding better working conditions from the workers. Socialism and communism merged to bring together workers to fight for their rights.

By the 1960s, the Workers had made massive gains, among them a five-day workweek and a social safety net, including healthcare and pensions. Employee unions had developed into powerful structures that could influence government decisions.

A backlash came in the 1970s, with the emergence of neo-liberalism. This reactionary hybrid ideology advocated market-oriented reform such as deregulating capital markets, and privatization of state-owned industries. It was an anachronistic plea for a partial return to the free-for-all environment that persisted in the 19th century.

With support from Merchants, the neoliberal agenda gradually spread into politics. In the 1980s, the neo-conservatives Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher embraced the neoliberal agenda, followed in the 1990s by the “leftist ” Bill Clinton and Tony Blair. They marketed neoliberalism as” The Third Way” to their ignorant supporters. ”

Soon it became clear that neoliberalism did n’t benefit the US as a nation. Millions of Americans left the middle class, and wealth concentration reached levels of the 19th century. In 1970, the US was the world’s largest creditor nation. It is currently the most debated country, while China has grown to be its most popular creditor.

The legacy of Neoliberalism

The US and China’s decision to reverse their roles suggests that traditional Western ideologies are no longer a useful tool for understanding global changes.

ideologies were created in response to social and economic changes. Communism ( like fascism ) was a Worker response to the imperialist Merchant-dominated colonial era. It resembled a liberation theology in terms of secularism.

Ironically, orthodox communism became untenable because it sidelined the Merchants. Neoliberalism fails because it restricts the worker. All of the four archetypes are necessary for a fully functioning society, as the Indian sages pointed out centuries earlier.

Reciprocity

China reintegrated the Merchants into society with the reforms led by Deng Xiaoping in the 1970s, without allowing them to break into the political system. When celebrated billionaire Jack Ma, founder of Alibaba, became too big for his boots, the government put him in his place.

China’s leaders continue to liaise only superficially to communist ideology, but the nation has entered a post-ideological era. Pragmatism has returned as a guiding principle. As Deng famously remarked, it does n’t matter if a cat is black or white, as long as it catches the mouse.

China is currently looking at its own rich cultural and social history to find a way to advance beyond political ideology.  

That does not imply that China has ever ceased to be Chinese. China remained a Confucian nation throughout the revolutionary era of communism and even through the Cultural Revolution’s ideology-driven vandalism.

Confucianism is foundational to Chinese consciousness. It is what distinguishes India from the nation. Confucianism, in turn, was based on the notion of Tao and inspired the development of a key feature of Chinese society: the notion of reciprocity.

Confucius based his social construct on the I Ching, the “bible ” of the yin-yang system. The I Ching is based on the Eight Trigrams, compounded yin-yang symbols denoting eight natural phenomena. The interaction of the Eight Trigrams in Chinese cosmology affected the natural world.

Confucius “appropriated ” the Eight Trigrams for his social construct.

Consucius enlarged the qualities of the Eight Trigrams by including the eight members of a nuclear family. This linked China ’s social structure to the yin-yang principle of nature. The children are a mix of yin and yang, the father is yang, and the mother is yin.

The yin-yang system has a hierarchical dimension, but in the social context, this hierarchy is situational. A man is yang to his wife, but yin to his boss, even if the boss is female. A woman is yin to her husband but yang to her children, both boys and girls. In a social context, let alone in an international context, determining what is yin and yang in any given situation is an art, not a science.

The Yin-Yang system operates on the principle of reciprocity. It implies that everyone has a shared vision and values. Unlike altruism, which is based on unequal relationships, reciprocity is based on mutual dependencies.

Reciprocity is a core component of Chinese society’s social fabric and interpersonal relationships, as well as social and family life. It maintains harmony within families, communities, and business life and fosters a sense of solidarity, cooperation, and teamwork.

China ’s traditional, primarily collectivist culture partly explains its rapid modernization. Chinese civil engineers pioneered industrial methods like prefabrication, standardization, and modularization. The city of Daxing, a metropolis of 84 square kilometers built in the 6th century, was completed in one year.

A new story

China learned from the West to become the world’s top industrial nation. Like Japan before, it avoided and took what it thought was valuable from the West in opposition to its values and worldview.

In barely one generation, China became an industrial superpower. It dominates 75 % of the technologies currently considered necessary for the Fourth Industrial Revolution globally.

The US has not been sure-footed in its response to the Chinese challenge. Given the influence of neoliberalism and the polarization in US politics, it would be necessary to significantly alter the government’s priorities in order to outperform China economically.

The dilemma facing the West is brought up by cultural communication expert Bill Kelly, author of” A New World Arising.” “Neoliberalism, ” according to Kelly, “led to community breakdown, the alienation of the individual, and the loss of an overriding aspiration that a majority can embrace. In terms of socially mobilizing its citizens to support government leadership, this puts the West at a significant disadvantage. ”

Neoliberalism is a remnant of colonial times and the ugly manifestation of the Merchants ‘ mindset. It tries to perpetuate Western military and financial hegemony at all costs because it is aware it ca n’t compete with China’s industrial giants. It wages foreign wars under the pretext of defending democracy and freedom in its own country, a ruse intended to divert attention from the workers.

The neoliberals should have heeded the advice of historian Paul Kennedy rather than copying Francis Fukuyama. Kennedy explained that the relative decline of great powers frequently comes from overstretching in his book” The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.” Declining powers go beyond what their economic resources allow them to sustain with their military engagements.

The US is overstretched, has a small industrial base, and has one of its biggest trading partners, which is also one of its biggest creditors. It also has a very high level of debt. When something does, the US and its Western allies will need a new story that is contemporary with the twenty-first century.

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Sydney mall attack: Confronting pro-Kremlin troll on false claims Jewish student was killer

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Simeon Boikov, known online as Aussie Cossack, raising first in front of Russian flagAussie Cossack
By Marianna Spring
Propaganda and social media editor

” I always falsely suggested something,” Simeon Boikov tells me.

He posted unfounded rumors that a 20-year-old Hebrew university student was the one who fatally stabbed and killed five people and one man in Sydney under the alter self” Aussie Cossack.”

On X, he stated,” Unverified reports identify the Bondi perpetrator as Benjamin Cohen. Cohen? Actually? And to believe that so many observers first tried to blame Muslims. “

The real attacker, shot dead by authorities, was later identified as Joel Cauchi, 40. According to the government, his steps were most likely to do with his mental state.

The false allegations that Mr. Boikov amplified had already been made by hundreds of thousands of people on X and Telegram within days of his posting on X, and one federal news outlet also repeated them.

Because I want to know how his articles sparked a media frenzy, with serious consequences for Mr. Cohen, who has described his agony over being accused of an attack he had nothing to do, I tracked him down.

Mr. Boikov is speaking to me from the Australian consul where he fled more than a year earlier after an arrest warrant was issued for an alleged abuse. Vladimir Putin, a pro-Kremlin social internet character, was granted Russian membership last year and has since requested political asylum in Russia.

The brand Benjamin Cohen was not mentioned by him as the first time. It appeared to have come from a small account that shared almost entirely anti-Israel information.

One of the current methods for spreading propaganda is this.

According to Marc Owen-Jones, a specialist in online disinformation, “it’s less obvious and dubious than if a well-known and influential partisan account was to tweet it first.”

” Then more organized accounts can apply this’seeded’ tale as if it’s a legitimate audio music, and claim they are just’reporting’ what’s being said online. “

Another more extensive records suggested that the attack had some connection to Israel or Gaza before Aussie Cossack’s comments on X.

However, those were the first to go viral with Mr. Cohen’s brand.

That’s because he purchased a blue tick, which placed his content before other users and appeared higher up people’s feeds, even those who did n’t follow him.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and NSW Premier Chris Minns (3rd and 4th from left) were among those laying flowers

Getty Images

The first article racked up more than 400,000 views, according to X’s personal data- before authorities identified the attacker as Cauchi, no Benjamin Cohen. Following that, Aussie Cossack posted a similar picture to the one that shows the real perpetrator, Cauchi, standing next to a picture of Mr. Cohen in a subsequent post on X.

On Telegram, he even posted a screengrab of Mr Cohen’s LinkedIn site, revealing where he worked and studied.

However, Mr. Boikov, who spoke to me, emphasizes the skepticism in his tweet, saying that he was the” first large platform to inform this is unconfirmed.”

He suggests that” the hundreds of thousands of people who saw my content” pointed out the unverified nature of the state.

However, many people ‘ website responses to his posts appear to have viewed it in a different way and assumed Mr. Cohen was the source of the attack.

I questioned Mr. Boikov about how his posts had allegedly fabricated hundreds of thousands of lies, seriously harming the pupil at its heart. This occurred as people were grieving for loved people who were killed in the attack, and still are.

” Sorry, love, you’re doing that right now,” he said. You’re talking about the speculating of a phony state, and you’re writing a piece about it. “

Communicate in profit

Whether or not it is true that Mr. Boikov’s is one of the hundreds of very effective X accounts that now routinely share content in this manner.

Users can acquire a” share of the revenue” generated by advertising from their posts under X’s new rules, since Elon Musk purchased the social media business.

Aussie Cossack’s messages were taken up and recirculated by dozens of other records, some of whom had a history of spreading false information. Some people frequently post articles that disparage Israel or discuss the Gaza War.

Immediately, these false charges spread to various social media platforms.

When I was looking through the articles related to the murdering on Saturday night, TikTok suggested that I hunt for” Benjamin Cohen” on several films of the attack.

When I looked through the remarks, I discovered they were rife with his name before the authorities had established the attacker’s true personality.

” The suspect’s title is Benjamin Cohen IDF Soldier,” one user wrote. Their consideration had no articles, and no report picture. I sent a text. No answer.

” Shame he’s a Jew right? Why do n’t the media outlets label him? Another user posted a picture of persons running through the mall. When I messaged this one to inquire about its responses, it blocked me.

Repeated by media network

Where these accounts are based ca n’t be definitively confirmed. They consistently post controversial remarks and lack any identifying features that resemble authentic profiles.

The BBC has yet to respond to the BBC’s requests for comment. X, Telegram, and TikTok have not yet responded.

Worryingly, the debate was picked up by American media shop 7News, which named Benjamin Cohen as the “40-year-old lone wolf intruder”. The negative aspects of their document added to the fire online.

7News after retracted the statement and apologised, attributing it to “human problem”.

However, by this point, racist threats were being made toward Benjamin Cohen, who had described the incident as being “highly disconcerting and unsatisfactory to myself and my household.” He has expressed surprise that perhaps a major media outlet had identified him despite being constantly falsely accused on social advertising.

His father Mark Cohen defended his brother on X while the social media panic was taking place. He requested New South Wales Police to reveal the identity of the intruder, saying that “providing false information that it was my brother would cause more harm.”

Post on X by Mark Cohen reading: "Hey @nswpolice you need to release the name of the Bondi junction attacker before this nonsense claiming it was my son causes more harm."

X

In parallel, misleading statements were circulating that the intruder was Muslim. These were shared by well-known political figures and reporters on X with hundreds of thousands of supporters from the UK to the US.

The murder were “another terror assault by another Islamist terrorist,” according to American journalist and broadcaster Julia Hartley-Brewer, and TV presenter Rachel Riley referred to them as” a Global Intifada.” Eventually, they both retracted their content.

Hartley-Brewer posted that she had been “incorrect” and that the Sydney massacre “was not an Islamist terror attack”, while Riley said she was” sorry” if her message had been “misunderstood”.

Additionally, numerous Twitter accounts make false claims about the attacker’s religion. I messaged several of them- but they have n’t responded.

New South Wales Police have suggested the actual attacker, Cauchi, consciously targeted females- who make up five out of six of the patients.

Numerous online forums dedicated to the incels, a culture that defines themselves as incapable of getting a physical partner despite desire, have praised Cauchi as one of their own for the assault.

There is currently, however, no concrete proof that Cauchi is directly involved in these virtual activities. When questioned about Cauchi’s potential use of force against women, his father responded that his brother had “wanted a girl” and that he had” no social skills and was frustrated out of his mind.”

This kind of societal media frenzy, where misinformation is incredibly prevalent, is growing in frequency as problems in the real world occur.

This dangerous rumor mill is seriously harming the people, companions, and innocent bystanders who have been killed.

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Dodgy publications boost China's science stature - Asia Times

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Quantitative ratings, such as those provided by Times Higher Education, ShanghaiRanking Consultancy, and others, are closely monitored by school frontrunners. Rankings effect student graduation rates, draw talented university, and support donations from rich donors. University officials rail against them, and some colleges “withdraw” from them, but positions are important.

The rankings earth is about to undergo a radical change, largely in favor of China’s place.

For instance, the Leiden University Center for Science and Technology Studies ( CWTS ) group released new university rankings in the early 2024s, adding new open-data sources to the standard curated list of elite journals. The outcomes reveal a school rankings earth that has changed.

Eight institutions from China are included in the new top 10 list of colleges with great technological effect, replacing Oxford, Stanford, Harvard, and MIT, which were previously included in the list of universities with the highest scientific effects. In the West, just Harvard and the University of Toronto gain top- 10 locations.

What does the knowledge of academic quality mean as a result? I investigate the impact of the global research system on social security. China’s sharp progress in science and engineering, propelled by investments in research and university power, has alarmed the United States and other nations. There are growing concerns that the US may be losing its competitive edge to a forceful rival, which could have a negative impact on national security, economic standing, and international influence. These innovative positions are likely to cause even greater concern.

Broader collection of more options

The positions programs greatly rely on statistical “indicators” as the foundation for their rankings. According to the important ShanghaiRanking criteria, “papers indexed in major reference indices” are among the inputs included in the evaluation. The common metrics are based on a carefully selected selection of scientific papers, including Cell, The Lancet, and Chemical Reviews. The Web of Science‘s Science Citation Index, or SCI, a result of careful uniformity and data advancement by Clarivate, is the most reputable score containing information on these and other papers.

Shanghai Jiaotong University replaced MIT in as the next best research programme in the world, by one standing group’s estimate. Photo: Shanghai Jiaotong University

SCI represents merely a fraction of the labor published widespread, though. Among other criticism, some people decry the SCI’s luxury and its perceived European discrimination.

However, careful analysis makes it the gold standard for scientific searching and one that publications and authors aspire to follow. Its worth can be found in its reproducibility: It can be used with various research techniques to produce similar results.

Reliance on tailored databases is about to close with the introduction of ratings based on open information, like those created by OpenAlex. In contrast to SCI’s 9, 200, OpenAlex claims to include more than 100, 000 papers of wildly different quality and editorial techniques. With the admirable intention of making studies readily available to everyone, OpenAlex has been released into the public area. The negative impact of this wider web is that it results in aggressive journals that profit from researchers and undermine the integrity of academic writing.

Reflecting China’s study output

China’s position in the open-source rankings is greatly affected by the amount of scientific articles represented in the open directories. Foreign scholars produce a huge system of written job, some in English, some in Taiwanese, estimates of percent shares for language range frequently, but hover around 50- 50. Many more individuals write formal reports as China invests in education and expands its potential for science and engineering.

By 2023, China had 2.2 million scientists and engineers from a quite small population in the 1980s, according to UNESCO information. Since the 1990s, China’s scientific and engineering production has increased significantly, outpacing that of all different countries. China has laggarded in quality in terms of overall academic papers in the Web of Science, but by my estimation, this is an improvement over the US since the US overtook the United Kingdom in 1948.

Although the figures are outdated, my partner and I estimated that China published about one million academic papers between 2000 and 2009 without the assistance of the Web of Science when we analyzed China’s scientific publication in 2010. That means they did n’t count toward traditional rankings. These papers are taken into account in the fresh open databases. Many of the papers included in opened- source or available- access journals will not be considered of high quality, however, they become part of the written record.

Open-access publishing companies have grown rapidly and have quick publication times, but there are questions about the caliber of their journals. In comparison to contributors from other nations, open publishing services like MDPI and Frontiers have the most contributors from China.

Potential paper mills, which produce what appear to be scholarly manuscripts for sale, are frequently featured in the open-access services. Despite concerns about the reputation and editorial practices of these publishers and editors, there’s little oversight. These services are flooded with poor-quality articles that are published all over the publishing industry.

Chinese researchers and the institutions that sponsor them place a lot of emphasis on publishing in international journals, even those published by dubious publishers. When authors cite the works of co-nationals to increase their citation profiles, skew counts, which helps China’s performance.

China is attempting to address malign practices. To its credit, China’s government recently announced the retraction of 17, 000 articles authored or co- authored by Chinese. Quality improvement efforts are being made. Governmental funding for articles published in ranked journals is being discontinued.

Despite the quality questions, the numbers alone will push China up the rankings lists. This quick change will improve how China stands in relation to the rest of the world. In itself, the rise does not reflect a change in quality, status or output, but it will continue to stoke the fires of those alarmed by the rise of China in world science, technology and innovation circles, and perhaps put rankings further into question.

Caroline Wagner is a public affairs professor at The Ohio State University.

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Local wins by Erdoğan foes could herald sea-change - Asia Times

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Prior to the March 31 municipal elections, there was a conflict between the status quo and shift. In retrospect, it can be said that the event has caused a previously unheard of change in Greek politics. This is not just because the outcomes have resulted in operational shifts across 29 regions, but also because it represents a significant change in regional power relationships.

For the first time in over two decades, the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party ( CHP), surpassed Erdoğan’s conservative Justice and Development Party ( AKP ) on a national scale, capturing 37.77 % of the vote. The expansion of its effect beyond its traditional industrial heartlands to areas long considered hotbeds of the ruling AKP, what made its victory traditional.

Erdoğan’s group clings to hideouts

Erdoan’s party remained strong in its traditional fortifications in northern Anatolia and continued to prosper in the southeast Asian provinces affected by the double quake in February 2023, most notably in Kahramanmaras and Gaziantep, despite losing some provinces in the area.

However, its electoral losses are tied to both the CHP’s method and the accomplishments of those political parties that backed Erdozan in the election of last year. However, the March 31 results highlight a substantial shift within the correct- conservative area, also.

The successes of the more extremist factions, represented by the Islamist Yeniden Refah Partisi ( YRP ) and the Nationalist Movement Party ( MHP), show discontent on both sides of Erdoğan’s electorate. People who think the AKP has taken an excessive liberal attitude on faith and patriotism have shifted to the YRP and MHP in this election.

Conversely, those who opted not to support the AKP for economic reasons have shifted to the Republican People’s Party ( CHP).

Exploiting these drifts within the right- conservative camp, for the first time the CHP made a breakthrough in municipalities such as Bursa ( northwest ), Afyon ( west ), and Adiyaman ( southwest ). Although this expansion may have been primarily due to the candidates ‘ poor financial performance and their poor choices, it also signaled a growing support base for the opposition, even in traditionally traditional areas.

This pattern also manifested itself in Istanbul’s districts. In addition to reelecting Mayor Ekrem Imamolu, the CHP also succeeded in winning elections in historically conservative areas like Üskudar ( Asian Side ) and Beyolu ( European Side ).

An goal that is affected by various elements

Additionally, these elections once more demonstrated how crucial the Kurdish voting is for shaping the outcome of votes. As evidenced by both its ballot discuss and the number of counties won compared to five years ago, the pro-Kurdish and left-wing group DEM increased its aid in the south of the nation, along the border with Syria and Iraq.

The goal of the elections was impacted by a number of factors. The opposition successfully highlighted the distinction between regional economic achievements and national economic issues as the economic situation came into focus. At the same time, in- party dynamics even played a part.

Turkey’s main opposition group, the CHP, responded to its followers ‘ hopes for change after several political costs under the command of Kemal Kilicdaroğlu. By appointing Özgür Özel as the new director and elevating the characteristics of personable politicians like Imamoğlu and Ankara’s Mansur Yavaş, who oppose Turkey’s shift toward monarchy, the group has made significant strides in appealing to citizens.

Turkey, known for its high electoral turnout, saw a slight decrease in voter participation, with rates falling from 84 % in 2019 to 78 % now, reaching the lowest level since 2004. This reduction mainly reflected the discontent among Erdoğan’s group supporters, many of whom expressed dissatisfaction with the country’s economic path. Promises of overall improvements went unfulfilled, fueling voting disillusionment, mainly from the more vulnerable populace segments, such as resigned and poor people.

A variation between Erdoğan and his group

With Erdoğan never being a strong candidate, AKP’s followers seemed to have made a difference between the head and the group. Despite his direct candidacy, Erdoan’s very personal campaign failed to pique his support, highlighting a need for social change and renewal. This might be a result of the national system’s introduction, which has more power in the hands of the president with every passing year.

This was clearly demonstrated in Turkey’s largely Kurdish southeast region, where the political campaign focused on opposing the exercise of appointing authorities officials in place of mayors who had won past municipal elections.

The regional elections in Turkey exemplify the traditional notion of” checks and balances” of political systems, which have less room at the administrative level, in a dynamic authoritarian system where the government’s power is almost unchecked. Erdoan has often argued that the ballot box helped him establish his authority and legitimacy, but this time he received an unanticipated answer.

The Greek voters, known for their sturdy civil society engagement, have become a vital pressure against the country’s drift toward autocratic rule. By taking action, they have helped make a more sensible political environment, reducing the supremacy of any one great.

A strong political endurance

It is not by chance that Istanbul’s Imamoğlu began his election speech by saying,” As we celebrate our victory, we send a message to the world: the reduction of politics is over”. This demonstrates that Turkey demonstrated a strong political endurance despite the lower turnout, which confirms the importance of the ballot for its residents and the need for its rulers to win actual popular support.

The CHP’s traditional success signals a transition in the social dynamics, with economic discontent, management registration and governance concerns driving a large swath of the electorate toward the opposition. The post-election process will undoubtedly not be straightforward despite these elections having produced an unprecedented result for the opposition in Turkey.

Erdoan and his party will rule Turkey until 2028. That is why, until that date, the opposition needs to focus on two main points:

  • promoting a depolarizing narrative intended to break the traditional secularist-conservative divide that has plagued Turkey’s electorate for years, and
  • developing a long-term strategy to address voters ‘ most pressing issues, such as the economy and unemployment, that might have a lasting impact beyond religious cleavages and traditional identity.

The outcome of the election signals a crucial change and an increasing desire for change among its citizens that could change the country’s political trajectory as Turkey progresses. The question is whether the opposition, who is caught between having less political freedom and having more responsibilities, can successfully manage the support given by the electorate.

At the Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – Catholic University of Milan, Samuele Carlo Ayrton Abrami and Riccardo Gasco are both PhD candidates in institutions and policies.

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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'Empower, Inspire, Transform'

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The Bangkok Post’s Ladies of the Year 2024 have been chosen as the outstanding people from a variety of areas who have inspired, influenced, and influenced change in their communities through their pursuit of excellence in the month of International Women’s Day.

Up until Thursday, there will be a number of in-depth characteristics of these people. The information will list their accomplishments, provide background information, and discuss their achievements.

We honor Narumon Chivangkur, Citi Country Officer and Banking Head, and Wallaya Chirathivat, President & Chief Executive Officer, Central Pattana Plc, now.

” Icon of financial light”

originating in the front

Wallaya Chirathivat , — , President &, Chief Executive Officer;  , Central Pattana Plc.

A light is a fixture in the active Thai business community: Central Pattana Plc ( CPN) President and CEO Wallaya Chirathivat.

Ms. Wallaya, who is the CEO of one of Thailand’s most important financial and property growth firms, goes beyond just being successful to being a visionary architect of the country’s future.

Her leadership has led the company to exceptional levels, and her career at CPN has been marked by pioneering accomplishments. Under her direction, the business properly launched a number of shopping center projects, thereby influencing the country’s financial history.

Her accolades demonstrate her management skill. Ms. Wallaya has been praised for her extraordinary accomplishments in driving operational success and encouraging impressive growth despite various difficulties. She has been named one of Forbes Asia’s best 20 businesswomen in 2022. She won the prestigious” Thailand Major CEO of the Year” honor in the real estate business group in 2023, a recognition of her remarkable management strategy and vision.

The revolutionary leadership of Ms. Wallaya has also won praise from around the world, with CPN receiving three big awards, including” Best CEO”,” Best CFO,” and” Best Investor Relations.” These accolades strengthen CPN’s status as a world leader in the field by demonstrating its quality in business and financial management.

Additionally, Ms. Wallaya’s commitment to sustainability has given CPN new levels. CPN continues to serve as the industry’s benchmark for sustainability with its listing in the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices ( DJSI) for real estate management and development as well as S&amp, P Global’s The Sustainability Yearbook 2024.

Importantly, CPN is ranked No. In the DJSI, Ms. Wallaya’s unwavering commitment to environmental stewardship ranks first nationally in the real estate control and development industry.

Ms. Wallaya’s trip is deeply connected to her mother’s legacy as well as her career success. At age 23, she joined the family business kingdom and set out to change the financial landscape. She demonstrated her strong organization skills and creative spirit by overseeing the change of Central Supermarket into the renowned Tops company.

Ms. Wallaya spearheaded the revitalization of Robinson and the development of Central Phuket, marking important milestones in her career, when she transitioned to the position of co-chief executive in her 30s. Her first property development project was at CPN in 2005, combining her in-depth knowledge of financial with her drive for innovation.

The redevelopment of the World Trade Center, now CentralWorld, which received the prestigious” Best of the Best Award” from the International Council of Shopping Centers in 2010, was Ms Wallaya’s most notable accomplishment.

This award recognized Ms. Wallaya’s multidimensional approach to financial development, showcasing both design excellence and successful sales.

Despite Thailand’s slow economic restoration, the company continues to invest heavily and have ambitious plans for long-term progress. CPN intends to develop five big mixed-use projects in various strategically located in Bangkok between 2023 and 2027, with a total investment of more than 100 billion baht.

Part of this ambitious plan, Central Park, which will debut in the second quarter of 2025, will redefine Bangkok’s industrial landscape, creating memorable parks in New York and London.

” International finance pioneer”

crystal ceilings blown off

Narumon Chivangkur, the mind of Citi Thailand and the country official, is also a member of the team.

Narumon Chivangkur stands as a pillar of revolutionary leadership in the realm of foreign banks in the center of Thailand’s bustling economic hubs. She embodies a blend of vision, experience, and a continuous pursuit of excellence with an famous 28-year occupation at Citi. Ms. Narumon is a visionary shaping the future of international banking in the region as the Citi Country Officer (CCO ) and Banking Head of Citi Thailand.

Beyond her recognized finance job, Ms. Narumon’s quest is enhanced by her unique skills. She performed on stage as a well-known pop singer in a bygone age, captivating audiences with her melodic words and captivating stage presence. Ms. Narumon excels in her authority by combining her special combination of creative flair and business acumen, which infuses her authority with originality and a deep understanding of the various facets of human expression.

Ms. Narumon’s trip exemplifies passion, knowledge, and a continuous pursuit of excellence. Her progression through the ranks, from a management relate in 1996 to her present position as CCO and banking mind of Citi Thailand, is a testament to her unwavering dedication to fostering growth and innovation.

In May 2023, Citigroup appointed Ms. Narumon as the fresh CCO for Thailand, making her the first woman to hold this position after the company sold its customer banking operations to United Overseas Bank in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. I want to help both local and international customers in their search for new business opportunities under Citi Thailand’s leadership role, she said.

Ms. Narumon has a wealth of knowledge in different fields, including foreign exchange, fixed-income securities, multi-award technique, and structured products. Her previous positions as head of business sales and arranging, head of derivatives and arranging, and nose of world markets and securities services at Citi demonstrate her management prowess. But beyond the office, she has an impact. Ms. Narumon is a steadfast supporter of diversity and inclusion, having previously served on the boards of directors of the Association of International Banks and the American Chamber of Commerce in Thailand. She has never before been more committed to empowering women in the workplace, opening the door for a new generation of leaders.

She has a clear vision for Citi Thailand, helping both domestic and foreign clients find new business opportunities and navigate the complex foreign market. Under her leadership, Citi Thailand is more than just a institution; it is also a proponent of international commerce and a change-maker. The bank’s” think globally” philosophy makes use of Ms Narumon’s vast network, which spans 95 countries, to quickly respond to client needs and promote business development across borders.

Under the direction of Ms. Narumon, Citi Thailand is dedicated to supporting their growth and fostering long-term success in the global market, from small and medium-sized businesses ( SMEs ) to large corporations. Her commitment to customer satisfaction is underlined by her proper focus on providing customized options, such as effective payment systems that can process thousands of transactions per minute. However, Ms. Narumon’s influence extends beyond banks.

Ms. Narumon also emphasizes the value of the team, focusing on developing the organization’s staff ‘ potential and efficiency, who are regarded as essential resources. With this support, bank workers can work in new techniques and gain new perspectives in order to adjust to the rapid changes in the business and technology earth.

As Ms. Narumon moves on to the next chapter of her distinguished occupation, she continues to inspire other women to strive for success. Her hard work, innovative thinking, and unwavering commitment to excellence function as a guiding light for upcoming decades of leaders.

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Carousell fined S$58,000 over data leaks that affected more than 2.6 million users

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In: South-East Asia

FIRST BREACH

The first data breach took root in July 2022 when Carousell implemented changes to its chat function.

The changes were meant to be limited to users in the Philippines who were responding to property listings. When the users provided prior consent, their first name, email address and phone number would be automatically sent to the owner of the property listing.

Due to human error, however, the email addresses and names of guest users were automatically appended to all messages sent to the listing owners of all categories in all markets.

For guest users in the Philippines, their telephone numbers were also appended to the messages.

Carousell did not pick up on this bug at the time. Instead, a month later, it implemented a fix to resolve an unrelated issue with the pre-fill functionality of the chat function.

This worsened the effect of the original bug. The email addresses and names of registered users were then automatically appended to messages sent to listing owners of all categories in all markets as well.

For users in the Philippines, their telephone numbers were also appended.

On Aug 24, 2022, Carousell fixed the bugs after a user sent in a report.

The bugs led to the personal data of 44,477 people being leaked. This comprised the email addresses of all affected users as well as the mobile phone numbers of users in the Philippines.

While names associated with users’ accounts were also disclosed, the PDPC did not consider this relevant in assessing how Carousell breached the Personal Data Protection Act (PDPA).

The commission accepted Carousell’s explanation that these names were not necessarily indicative of the users’ actual names, and were already listed on the users’ public profiles.

SECOND BREACH

As for the second data leak, the PDPC alerted Carousell to it on Oct 13, 2022 when someone offered about 2.6 million users’ personal data for sale.

The breach arose when Carousell launched a public-facing application programming interface (API) during a system migration process on Jan 15, 2022. An API allows computer programmes to communicate with each other.

However, Carousell inadvertently failed to apply a filter on the API it had launched.

The filter would have ensured that only publicly available data of users who were followed by, or following, a particular Carousell user would be called up.

Because the filter was not present, the API was able to call up the users’ private data comprising email addresses, telephone numbers and dates of birth.

This vulnerability was exploited by a threat actor who scraped the accounts of 46 users with large numbers of users following them, or who were following many other users. This occurred in May and June 2022.

Carousell’s internal engineering team discovered the API bug on Sep 15, 2022 and deployed a patch that same day.

When the company conducted internal investigations to find out if users’ personal data had been accessed without authorisation in the 60 days before it discovered the bug, it did not detect any anomalies.

Carousell remained unaware of this breach till the PDPC informed them of the data sale advertisement.

The judgment did not indicate whether the data was actually sold.

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Commentary: Live concerts, once deaf to concertgoers with hearing loss, have found a new melody

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In: South-East Asia

NO LONGER TONE DEAF

Many concert organisers have explored assistive technologies that provide opportunities for people to realise the full potential of their live music experience. For instance, vibrating vests and floors, and wearable sensors can enable full-body listening in a never-seen-before way.

Noise-cancelling headphones can be provided to those who need it. And soon enough, it may also be possible to explore Bluetooth technologies like Auracast, which streams audio directly to cochlear implant sound processors to enhance the concert experience for recipients. No longer relegated to producing sound at a pre-fixed volume, newer models of cochlear implants also contain adjustable settings that allow individuals to adapt to the sound profiles of their surroundings.

More noticeably, concert organisers are starting to make it a practice to hire sign language interpreters that can help deliver the same high many fans get at concerts. There are nuances to navigate here.

First, because Singapore Sign Language (SgSL) is used in the deaf community here, local interpreters are needed for the job as foreign interpreters would unlikely have the fluency to interpret songs in SgSL.

Second, there has not been much demand for song interpreting in Singapore. In interviews after the Coldplay concerts, the interpreters said that they conducted through research to come up with their own ways of offering vivid visual interpretations to convey the metaphorical meanings of the lyrics effectively.

Interpreting a song can be a tiring process as song interpreters must use their hands, legs and facial expressions to express the mood and tone of each song. They must figure out a way to preserve their energy throughout the duration of the concert and yet interpret not only the song lyrics, but also the instruments used in the background music.

But, that is not all. While live music is important, the truth is that the concert experience starts from the moment a person arrives at the venue and ends the moment they leave. Concert organisers must also think about how best to help fans get in and out of the venue in a way that makes them comfortable.

For example, do announcements need to be made from traditional speakers? Can they be streamed directly to hearing aids? For those with autism, how could the sensory overload from the lights, noise and what else be reduced?

In short, if live music is to become truly accessible, we must think about how the concert experience might be understood differently by people with different degrees of hearing loss.

Standard reproductions at concerts continue to be a practice, but the more concerts like Coldplay lead by example, the more likely the other concerts will learn from their best practices and join them.

Amy Zheng is the General Manager, Asia Growth Markets, at Cochlear.

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Saving Amerca's future from the Blob - Asia Times

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Never believe what bipartisan foreign policy establishment hacks say about China and Russia. They don’t believe what they say, either. The Blob (as Obama aide Ben Rhodes called it) learned through generations of strategic blunders that if everyone closes ranks and sticks to the same story, its members will survive a strategic disaster of any magnitude with their careers intact.

The same principle explains why not a single American banker went to jail after the subprime collapse of 2008, the biggest fraud in all financial history. The Blob’s logic is simple: If you go after one of us, then you have to go after all of us, and who will be left to put things back together?

Whether or not it was right for America to go abroad seeking monsters to destroy in Moscow and Beijing, the way we went about it was abominably stupid.

“If an injury has to be done to a man it should be so severe that his vengeance need not be feared,” Machiavelli advised.

Washington has wounded Russia and China but not disabled them, setting in motion a tragic sequence of responses that in the worst case will lead to war, but more likely will leave the United States with vastly diminished strategic standing.

The rise of China and the resilience of Russia have persisted through serried waves of tech restrictions, $125 billion of NATO support for Ukraine and an unprecedented sanctions regime against Russia, including the seizure of $300 billion in reserves, among other measures.

The Black Legend propounded by the Blob states that China is on the verge of invading Taiwan because its Communist leaders hate democracy, and because it wants to distract its citizens from their economic misery. It claims that Vladimir Putin wants to revive the Russian Empire and invaded Ukraine because it “is a country that for decades has enjoyed freedom and democracy and the right to choose its own destiny.”

In fact China has bracing economic challenges, but no crisis, and no widespread popular discontent. It wants to preserve the status quo, barring a Taiwanese move toward sovereignty, which is all but ruled out by the results of Taiwan’s national elections this January.

China is a formidable strategic competitor, but its global plan centers on dominating key industries and export markets rather than military deployments – and that plan is proceeding at a rapid clip, despite American efforts to hobble it.

Russia made clear for a decade that it would not tolerate the extension of NATO’s boundaries to its border with Ukraine, as the late Henry Kissinger, former Ambassador to Moscow and now CIA Director William Burns, and others repeatedly warned.

Vladimir Putin declared on the eve of his invasion of Ukraine, February 23, 2022: “If deployed in Ukraine, [NATO weapons] will be able to hit targets in Russia’s entire European part. The flying time of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Moscow will be less than 35 minutes; ballistic missiles from Kharkov will take seven to eight minutes; and hypersonic assault weapons, four to five minutes. It is like a knife to the throat.”

The Biden Administration believed the Russian economy would collapse under US sanctions. In March 2022 President Biden declared, “The Russian economy is on track to be cut in half.”

Russia’s economy is not only larger today than it was two years ago, but has increased production of weapons up to tenfold, producing seven times more artillery shells than the combined West, by Estonian Intelligence estimates. Some 70 percent of casualties are inflicted by artillery, and Russia has an overwhelming advantage, as well as superior tactical air support and offensive missiles and drones.

Russia also produces 100 main battle tanks a month, while Germany produces 50 per year. With five times Ukraine’s population, Russia will win a war of attrition barring some catastrophic blunder.

How did Russia do this? China, India, Turkey, and other countries transformed their trade and financing profiles to support the Russian market. China’s exports to Russia nearly tripled from prewar levels. India became Russia’s top customer for oil and doubled its exports of machinery to Russia during 2023. Turkey and the former Soviet republics became conduits for unreported exports to Russia.

Ukraine is short of artillery ammunition and air defense systems. Russia’s cheap, Iranian-designed Shaheed drones are now penetrating Ukraine’s air defenses and hitting military installations and critical infrastructure. The United States doesn’t have enough inventory to keep Ukraine supplied.

Russia is gradually achieving its stated objective, namely to de-militarize Ukraine. Ukraine’s manpower resources are thin, and the military is putting 50-year-old soldiers into the front lines. Last October, a Zelensky aide told Time that even if the West provided more weapons, “We don’t have the men to use them.”

None of these facts is contested, but the Blob’s enthusiasm for the Ukraine War increases in inverse proportion to its prospects for success. It is considered downright dangerous to question the wisdom of the war: Bill Kristol proposed to bar Tucker Carlson from returning to the United States after his projected interview with Putin.

Having called out the bear and gotten mauled, the Blob knows what consequences it may face. Germany is in recession after the cutoff of cheap Russian gas supplies pushed up the cost of energy, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz has an approval rating of 17 percent. France’s President Macron polls at 23 percent.

Having exacted Nibelungentreue (absolute, unquestioning loyalty) from reluctant NATO allies to pursue the war, Washington faces a populist revolt led by Geert Wilders’s Freedom Party in the Netherlands, the Alternative für Deutschland in Germany, and the National Rally in France.

Heads should roll, or at least careers should abort. But the greater its blunders, the stronger the Blob’s solidarity. They have a story, and they will stick to it.

Ukraine, to be sure, is a warm-up act for the main strategic event of the next decade, namely America’s contention with China. China now buys more oil from Russia than from Saudi Arabia, and has nearly tripled exports to Russia by official count (and probably much more through third parties), but it has stayed on the sidelines, allowing Russia to do the bleeding.

With three times more manufacturing capacity than the United States, and a significant lead in automated manufacturing, China has made itself a fortress bristling with thousands of satellite-guided anti-ship missiles, perhaps a thousand modern aircraft, formidable electronic warfare capabilities, and other means of dominating its home theater. Mackenzie Eaglen of the American Enterprise Institute wrote on January 4:

While select munitions stockpiles do exist, the war in Ukraine has shown that past munitions requirements based on rosy war assumptions have vastly underestimated the need for volume in modern warfare. According to RTX, the prime contractor for the SM-6, the existing SM-6 stockpile sits somewhere north of 500 missiles. This is not nearly enough for a drawn-out conflict with any peer adversary and potentially any sub-par one, too.

Beijing is well aware of our shortfalls as is evidenced by China’s rapid expansion and investment in its missile forces. China’s ground-based missile forces have nearly doubled in the last decade, and the Pentagon estimates that the PRC has stockpiles of thousands of missiles in reserve, all as part of a strategy to mass fire and overwhelm US warships in a potential conflict.

The ongoing skirmish between Houthi guerrillas and the US Navy in the Red Sea was a spectacle that allowed Beijing to watch and assess U.S. anti-missile capabilities. The outcome is alarming. The destroyer USS Gravely resorted to its Phalanx Gatling guns to destroy an incoming cruise missile only four seconds from hitting the ship, implying that its missiles failed to intercept the attacker.

An American destroyer carries about 100 anti-ship missiles. China claims to have an automated factory that can produce 1,000 cruise missiles per day. That’s unverified, but China has plants that assemble more than 1,000 electric vehicles a day; I visited a Chinese facility that produced 2,400 5G base stations a day with just 45 workers.

The US Navy is massively outgunned in the South China Sea. American strategists spin scenarios of Taiwanese resistance against a D-Day-style landing across the 70 miles of the Taiwan Strait. The Chinese are not stupid enough to send a slow-moving flotilla against Taiwan, not when they have the capacity to sink anything that floats on the surface within 1,000 miles of the island.

Fortunately, a confrontation over Taiwan is unlikely after the January elections, which returned the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party to the presidency, but with a 40 percent rather than a 57 percent majority as in the last election. The new People’s Party holds the balance of power, and its leader holds the presidency of Taiwan’s parliament. Beijing appears satisfied with the resulting political gridlock.

Race to rise

The prevailing narrative in the Blob is that China is likely to attack Taiwan because of Xi Jinping’s obsession with personal prestige, and because it would distract from China’s internal economic problems. On February 6, Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins University and Michael Beckley of the American Enterprise Institute wrote of China that “many of the conditions that once enabled a peaceful rise may now be encouraging a violent descent.”

China has economic problems, to be sure. But they are high-class problems to have. When Deng Xiaoping began the reforms in 1979 that increased the size of China’s economy 16-fold in real terms (according to the World Bank estimate), only 3 percent of Chinese had tertiary education. Today’s number is 63 percent, on par with Germany.

China graduates about 1.2 million engineers and computer scientists each year, compared with slightly over 200,000 for the United States. Chinese universities by most international surveys are at or close to par with the United States.

Only 16 percent of China’s population was urban in 1979, compared with 64 percent today. China moved 700 million people from the countryside to the city and turned subsistence farmers into industrial workers, propelling a 40-year boom in urban property prices.

Chinese households have 70 percent of their wealth in property, and the cost of housing in Tier 1 cities has become prohibitive. Shifting investment away from property to industry is a wrenching and disruptive business, and the Chinese authorities went about the transition with characteristic heavy-handedness. China’s housing sector is in distress, but that is the least interesting part of the story.

With a declining workforce, China needs to raise productivity through automation, and export its labor-intensive industries to countries with younger populations. It has to shift the focus of investment from property (required to absorb the mass migration from the countryside) to industry, and it has to upgrade its industry.

One might say that China is in crisis, but China has always been in crisis. Uniquely among the world’s nations, its economy, built on a flood plain of the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers, has always required enormous investment in water management for irrigation, flood control, and transport.

Today China has marshaled its resources in a massive effort to overcome Washington’s efforts to limit its access to advanced technology. The cost of achieving semiconductor independence in the face of US sanctions is substantial. China is building 22 chip fabrication plants and expanding others, at a cost of perhaps $50 billion, roughly equivalent to the annual CapEx of the CSI 300 Index (roughly comparable to America’s S&P 500 Index).

Although Beijing subsidizes chip production heavily, the cost of duplicating large parts of the semiconductor industry in China will challenge the bottom lines of the companies involved.

China stunned American policymakers in September when Huawei released a smartphone powered by a home-produced 7-nanometer chip capable of 5G operation, an event that Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo called “incredibly disturbing.” According to news reports, China is on the cusp of producing 5-nanometer chips, only one generation behind the best that Taiwan and South Korea can make.

American experts didn’t think this was possible, because it isn’t economical to use older lithography equipment to make high-end chips. China doesn’t care about the economics, because the externalities of high-end chip production (in the application of artificial intelligence to manufacturing, logistics, and services) more than outweigh the costs.

America’s tech war with China has succeeded in imposing significant costs on China’s economy, cutting off in my guesstimate somewhere between 0.5 percent and 1 percent of its annual GDP growth. But this has only slowed China’s juggernaut, not stopped it.

Despite the costs, China leapfrogged Japan and Germany to become the world’s largest exporter of autos. It dominates the production of telecommunications infrastructure and solar panels, as well as steel and other industries. Its enormous investment in semiconductor fabrication will likely give China a dominant position in so-called legacy chips, which comprise 95 percent of the world market.

Meanwhile, China has doubled its exports to the Global South since 2017 and now exports more to developing countries than it does to all developed markets combined. Its export drive is supported by about $1.5 trillion of credits and investment through the Belt and Road Initiative. It is building digital broadband through the whole of the developing world, with transformative effects that lock many countries into China’s sphere of economic influence.

America’s efforts to “de-risk” import dependence on China have only diverted trade flows to the US by way of middleman countries that depend in turn on China. As International Monetary Fund economists wrote last November, “Countries replacing China tend to be deeply integrated into China’s supply chains and are experiencing faster import growth from China, especially in strategic industries.

Put differently, to displace China on the export side, countries must embrace China’s supply chains.”

Tariffs on Chinese goods and related measures to reduce America’s import dependency on China have made the rest of Asia (and to some extent Latin America as well) all the more dependent on Chinese supply chains.

The view of the United States from Beijing is grim. CPC leaders know that China must transform itself or suffer the deleterious consequences of an aging population. In China’s view America’s attempts to restrict Chinese access to high-end semiconductors, the building blocks of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, constitute an effort to destroy China, not to restrict its access to military technology.

By injuring China without disabling it, Washington has given China an incentive to undermine American interests wherever convenient. This is obvious in the Middle East, where China sees an opportunity to “exhaust” the United States, as Prof. Lui Zhongmin said in a February 6 interview.

The Blob’s blunders are so comprehensive, so thorough and so damaging that there is no short-term fix to the damage that the United States will suffer as a consequence. That does not necessarily portend the end of American primacy on the world stage. The loss of Vietnam entailed a devastating blow to American prestige, to the point that much of the US and the European elite believed that the Soviet Union would win the Cold War.

That didn’t happen, because America responded to its strategic setbacks by reinventing warfare. In order to do so we invented the Digital Age. In 1973 Russian military technology, especially in the decisive field of air defense, was the best in the world. By 1982 American avionics and smart weaponry had turned the tables. America’s capacity to innovate remains our greatest asset.

We need to take stock soberly of our position and correct the policy errors that left us without the capacity to produce enough 155mm shells to supply our allies, let alone make hypersonic missiles. We need a defense driver for high-tech R&D and manufacturing on the scale of the Kennedy Moonshot and Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative.

I proposed a plan for accomplishing this in a 2023 monograph for the Claremont Institute, “Restoring American Manufacturing: A Practical Guide.” I am confident that this is the right policy, because we have done it three times before: During World War II, during the 1960s, and during the 1980s.

What we have done before, we can do again. We cannot stop the rise of China. But we can rise faster.

David P. Goldman is deputy editor of Asia Times and a Washington fellow of the Claremont Institute. This article was first published by The American Mind and is republished with permission.

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