Profiles

With its “peace through power” method, which the new Trump administration has a muscular launch, the organization has previously impressed senior allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and India’s S. Jaishankar met briefly days into his new position to highlight the importance of Asia in Trump’s international plan.

In a phone conversation with Rubio’s rival in the Philippines, Rubio reiterated America’s “ironclad” responsibility to protect its South Asian mutual defense treaty alliance in the event of an armed conflict with China in the South China Sea.

In addition, Gilbert Teodoro Jr, the fresh US National Security Advisor, and Mike Waltz, the Philippine Defense Secretary, spoke privately to confirm the “enduring empire between the Philippines and the United States.” &nbsp,

Just days into company, the new Trump administration also convened the latest generation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, better known as the” Quad”, which brought together top officials from Australia, Japan, India and the US.

In a shared speech, Rubio and his Triple rivals underscored their” shared commitment to strengthening a Free and Open Indo-Pacific where the rule of law, political principles, independence, and territorial integrity are upheld and defended”.

The Quad ministers&nbsp made it clear in a lightly veiled criticism of reactionary forces, most importantly China, that they” strongly resist any coercive behavior that seek to change the status quo by force or force.”

In contrast, President Trump’s second term saw a more logical approach by firing and criticizing Iran’s hawks and appointing pragmatists like Michael DiMino as the new top Middle East official for the Pentagon.

New important appointments will reinforce the message of so-called “prioritizers” led by Elbridge Colby, a candidate for under-secretary of security for policy who has emphasized the need for a more China-focused US foreign policy, in conjunction with Trump’s call for ending the “ridiculous war” in Ukraine and growing pressure on Western allies to make their own defense burdens.

The second Trump administration appears to be double down on its defense alliance and deterrence strategy in the Indo-Pacific by shifting America’s strategic focus from its old theaters in Europe and the Middle East.

Trump’s inauguration speech put his commitment to ending world wars to the test by setting the tone for his foreign policy. ” It will be my most cherished legacy to be one who makes peace and unites people.” That’s what I want to be – a peacemaker and a unifier”, he declared, directly taking credit for the newly implemented ceasefire in Gaza, which was largely negotiated by Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.

” We will build the strongest military the world has ever seen, just like in 2017,” he added. We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and, perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into”, he added, echoing his administration’s “peace through strength” mantra.

Trump has signaled a more pragmatic approach to adversaries, most notably Iran. He fired former Iranian envoy Brian Hook, who opposed a “maximum pressure” campaign against the Middle Eastern power that oversaw the Department of State’s most recent transition, just hours into his second term. &nbsp,

Meanwhile, Trump also publicly attacked his former national security adviser, John Bolton, as a “warmonger” who oversaw disastrous interventions in the Middle East. Both Bolton and former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, both of whom had pushed for confrontation with Iran, were removed from their security profiles.

Trump’s Middle East strategy will therefore be influenced by more pragmatic voices. Following his successful negotiation of the Gaza ceasefire, Witkoff has been appointed as Trump’s new Iran envoy.

” He’s certainly&nbsp, someone I would use. He has done a fantastic job. . . Trump praised his new Iran envoy and prospects for a new nuclear deal with Iran, saying that Steve has a wonderful way of him. ” It would really be nice if that could be worked out without having to go that further step]of military confrontation ] …Iran, hopefully, will make a deal”.

The Pentagon’s new Middle East top official Michael DiMino, who is known for his more critical stance on Israel and support for a more “offshore balancing” strategy in the Middle East, will complement Witkoff’s regional diplomacy.

” There are no vital or existential U. S. interests in the]Middle East ] region”, DiMino&nbsp, argued last year in a webinar, underscoring the need for a major reorientation in American foreign policy. He continued,” We’re really there to fight Iran, and that’s really at the behest of the Israelis and the Saudis,” instead of advocating for a more limited American military presence in an increasingly multipolar region.

That viewpoint tracks with the Pentagon’s incoming top policy official, Elbridge Colby, an influential strategic thinker who oversaw the formulation of the first Trump administration’s National Security Strategy.

In a major conference last October, Colby argued that we must give the potential for conflict with China a priori in order to avoid it. ” It is empirically true that China is getting ready for war, and we do have the potential for a multi-front war and a World War III in the upcoming years, and we’re not prepared.”

Similar to DiMino, Colby has also drawn on his own bitter experience in dealing with the Middle East, particularly when he was a member of the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq in 2003 and of the President’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission between 2004 and 2005 while serving under the George W. Bush administration. &nbsp,

Trump’s other top cabinet members have also expressed openness to a less confrontational policy in the Middle East in favor of focusing on the broader Indo-Pacific region, particularly China, while adopting more traditionally hawkish views on Iran.

Rubio made it clear during his confirmation hearing that he would support “any arrangement that allows us to have safety and stability in the region but one in which we’re clear-eyed” about threats posed by adversaries like Iran. The more pragmatic tone on Iran, coupled with a concerted push to end the conflict in Ukraine, underscores China’s centrality to the second Trump administration’s grand strategy.

Rubio has characterized China&nbsp, as” the most potent, dangerous and near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted”, thus the urgency of doubling down the Quad and existing military alliances in the Indo-Pacific. National Security Adviser Waltz, who is also known as an Iran hawk, has also emphasized the need for America to “quickly wind up the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to free up military assets to confront and deter China.”

Trump’s defense secretary nominee, Pete Hagseth, who, similar to Waltz, also served in America’s wars in the Middle East, has argued along similar lines and has criticized the outgoing Biden administration for not sufficiently decoupling from conflicts in the Middle East in favor of a China-centered strategy.

By and large, America’s top Asian allies seem optimistic about the second Trump administration’s signaled direction. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong referred to bilateral ties with Washington as “our most important strategic relationship” prior to her meeting with Rubio.

On the eve of the first Quad meeting, just hours into the new administration, she said,” It’s a demonstration of the collective commitment of all countries to the Quad, an ironclad commitment in this time when close cooperation in the Indo-Pacific is so important.”

Japan’s top diplomat was even more effusive about the new administration’s nuanced approach to foreign policy and sound pragmatism.

” I was very impressed that]Rubio’s ] explanation of the Quad didn’t mention China by name and antagonize it. I had thought of him as a hard-liner against China, but as we talked, I found he was a well-balanced individual”, Japan’s Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya&nbsp, said after the Quad meeting this week.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Rich Heydarian

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According to researchers at Northwestern Polytechnical University ( NWPU) and the China Aerodynamics Research and Development Center ( CARDC ), which are cited in a South China Morning Post report, China has created the first drone that can launch from a submarine from the water, loop repeatedly between the sea and the sky, and eventually return to the same&nbsp, sub.

China has already developed this capability and potentially more than the Pentagon envisions for its own forces, according to the SCMP report, while the US military is considering sending submarines close to the Chinese coast to detach drones that swarm in the air and launch attacks on the People’s Liberation Army’s ( PLA ) fleet during a potential conflict over Taiwan.

The new Chinese air-to-sea aircraft, known as Feiyi, features a unique portable aircraft style that apparently enhances its concealment and life abilities. The Feiyi may manage marine quickly and do high-agility maneuvers in the air, making it suitable for sea reconnaissance, surveillance and strike missions, the SCMP report said.

Feiyi’s cutting-edge features, bolstered by China’s unparalleled aircraft production system and its growing skill in cross-media ammunition, signal a possible edge for China in future maritime conflicts involving drones with the US.

Also, the US Navy is testing the Naviator helicopter, an autonomous vehicle capable of flying and underground operations. The Naviator can seamlessly transition between air and water, which increases its deployment flexibility, and is designed for autonomous launch and recovery from unmanned underwater vehicles ( UUV).

The Naviator has more accurate GPS and physical position keep, a power-saving boat sentry mode, the ability to transport numerous sensors and payloads, and a quicker deployment than conventional underwater vehicles. The US Navy’s Orca Extra-Large Unmanned Undersea Vehicle (XLUUV) could be a member for the Naviator’s probable start system.

Its length and load volume surpass those of the majority of the current marine vehicles, making it suitable for a variety of mission types besides minelaying operations. Its diesel-electric engine system enables automatic operations for up to 30 days and 6, 000 nautical miles, although operational assessment is continuing to develop these capabilities, according to The War Zone.

These cross-media robots can destroy the enemy by launching swarm problems from a variety of domains and directions, probably overcoming the limitations of conventional and fast weapons.

Further, these developments may tie into the more prominent “dronification” of undersea tensions in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea and Indian Ocean.

Exploring the role of UUVs in the Taiwan Strait, the Center for a New American Security ( CNAS ) mentions in a June 2024 report that UUVs play a vital role in enhancing China’s maritime surveillance and anti-access/area denial ( A2/AD ) capabilities.

These UUVs conduct covert intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance ( ISR ) operations, monitor naval activities, map the seabed and locate critical undersea infrastructure. Their independent operations also lower the risk of detection, which makes them successful in tense waters.

China is creating a multidomain surveillance network by integrating UUVs into its larger drone fleet, which increases its ability to disrupt communications and halt foreign intrusions. This action is in line with China’s plan to overcome its own shortcomings and strengthen its standing in a potential Taiwan conflict.

In the 2024 book” Navigating East Asian Maritime Conflicts: Technological Change, Environmental Challenges, Global and Regional Responses”, Henrik Hiim mentions that UUVs and Unmanned Surface Vehicles ( USV ) play a nuanced role in US-China undersea competition in the South China Sea.

In line with its efforts to make the South China Sea a protected base for its nuclear ballistic missile submarines ( SSBN), China uses UUVs to counter US nuclear attack submarines ( SSN) by raising maritime domain awareness.

The US uses Unmanned Maritime Systems ( UMS ) to support strategic anti-submarine warfare ( ASW) operations in the South China Sea, but its ability to do so is limited by China’s A2/AD environment’s endurance and vulnerability.

However, Hiim argues that while UMSs may not decisively alter the undersea power balance, they exacerbate maritime disputes, fueling US-China rivalry and intensifying the regional security dilemma.

In the Indian Ocean, the Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ) think tank mentions in a January 2024 report that China’s operations in the area are characterized by extensive dual-use research activities, blending scientific and military objectives.

The PLA leverages a vast fleet of civilian research vessels to gather critical data on water conditions, currents, and the seafloor, thereby enhancing its naval capabilities. These vessels, often owned by state-affiliated organizations with military ties, conduct surveys that support China’s strategic ambitions.

Notably, Chinese ships have engaged in active operations in the Indian Ocean, using cutting-edge underwater gliders and profiling floats to create a real-time ocean observation network. This information could be used to support the PLA Navy’s ( PLAN ) submarine operations there to counter India’s Bay of Bengal for its SSBNs.

In the wake of India’s ongoing border dispute with China in the Himalayas, analysts have suggested that the country could use its undersea nuclear deterrent as a backstop if its conventional military capabilities are undermined.

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Our time has all the marks of the Kali Yuga, a dark era of individualism, alienation, injustice and social collapse. But there is trust.

In Hindu cosmology, the Kali Yuga ( Age of Conflict ) is the last of four epochs described in the Vedas. The next epoch will be the Satya Yuga ( Age of Truth ), the equivalent of the Second Coming in Christianity.

Amazingly, contemporary macrohistorical and stage theories provide a comparable framework for understanding the evolution of humanity and closely coincide with old spiritual prophecies, providing guidance on how to navigate this transforming era.

One of the oldest level ideas in the world is the Hindu prophecy that humankind develops in four distinct phases. Ancient Indian scholars predicted a period whereby the philosophies of the four varnas—teacher, warrior, trader, and worker—take turns “ruling the planet”. This Varna period is a reflection of the Vedas ‘ continuous science.

When the cycle is completed, it starts fresh.

The last judgment, the development of a new heaven and earth, and the return of Christ as a linear growth toward holy fulfillment are all depicted in the Bible. Various religions have similar prophecies. While their idioms differ, they all anticipate a world of harmony, justice, unity and justice.

Over time, there have also been liberal level theories. For starters, Confucius described royal cycles, charting the surge, maximum, decline and fall of dynasties. Also, Greek historian Polybius proposed the theory of anacyclosis, describing recurring political advancement from king to elite to politics and their respective crooked forms—tyranny, elite and ochlocracy.

Modern Tales

In the 19th century, European philosophy developed several stage theories and macrohistories, including Hegel’s dialectical model of historical progress ( thesis, antithesis, synthesis ), Comte’s Law of Three Stages ( theological, metaphysical and positivist ), and Marx’s modes of production ( primitive collectivism, slave society, feudalism, capitalism and communism ).

In the early 20th centuries, German writer Oswald Spengler presented his seasonal theory of societies, likening them to biological organisms with predictable cycles of birth, growth, age, collapse and death. The rise and fall of big civilizations were the subjects of Toynbee’s macrohistory.

By the mid-20th era, macrohistories and level ideas gained popular interest. Francis Fukuyama, Samuel Huntington, and Alvin Toffler all gained acclaim.

Toffler identified society’s change from hunter-gatherer and agrarian societies to professional and post-industrial eras. Huntington argued that future conflicts would be influenced by social and spiritual identities, while Fukuyama famously declared the “end of history,” implying that Western liberal democracy represented the turning point of intellectual evolution.

Development of perception

The Stage Theory of Cognitive Development, a Swedish psychologist’s theory of mental development, which describes how children’s considering develops over time as they mature, had a significant impact on contemporary period ideas in the 1920s. His theory had a significant impact on the study of individual mental development.

In the second half of the 20th centuries, thinkers Jean Gebser and Ken Wilber extended level principles to human consciousness. Gebser described humanity’s progression through unique” buildings” of consciousness, old, magical, mythical, psychological and integral levels.

Gebser, whose concept relied heavily on art story, pointed at Cubism as a metaphor for expanding awareness. Cubism replaced the one-point view of the Renaissance with “multiple ideas”.

By embracing the difficulty, duality, and interconnection of life, Gebser came up with the term “aperspectival,” a way of experiencing fact that goes beyond the boundaries of distinct and fixed perspectives.

Ken Wilber’s essential concept identifies three stages of development: pre-personal, private and transcendental.

The transpersonal emphasizes the potential for people to move past their ego-driven, personal problems and accept a deeper feeling of interdependence with the world. Wilber sees this evolution as essential for addressing global issues and fostering a more included, sympathetic, and spiritually awakened world.

Gebser and Wilber were both influenced by Indian cosmology and ideas about spirituality and consciousness, and particularly by contemporary Indian spiritual teacher Sri Aurobindo ( 1872-1950 ), the pioneer of Integral Yoga and one of the first advocates of an integral approach to spirituality.

Gebser and especially Wilber used key concepts from Indian cosmology and consciousness, among them the Sanskrit terms Sat-Chit-Ananda ( being-consciousness-bliss ), Atman ( true self ), Maya ( illusion ) and Turiya, ( pure awareness ). Wilber used the term Turiya to describe a sublime state of consciousness, a breakthrough in metaphysical study and revelation.

Reviving the Varna routine

Based on the original Varna model, Indian spiritual teacher Prabhat Ranjan Sarkar created the socio-spiritual model PROUT ( Progressive Utilization Theory ). Sarkar restored the original interpretation of the Varna idea after the initial idea had degenerated into the harsh, genealogical caste system. &nbsp,

In the Vedic revelation, the four Varnas (teachers, soldiers, retailers and workers ), are emotional characteristics. One of the four Varna forms is the dominant inclination for all people. Although there are characteristics of two or three Varnas, one of the four usually predominates in each person.

For a working world, Sarkar argued that all four Varnas are required. As we have seen in recent past, when one or more of the four Varnas is sidelined, cultures lose their stability and strength. Socialism is failing because it minimizes the employer, and capitalism failed because it minimized the merchants.

Sarkar’s model rejects notions of order, superiority and inferiority. He focuses instead on the idea of cooperation. All Varnas may help because they are dependent on one another.

They must build a mutual relationship. Peter Hayward and Joseph Voros, two researchers from Australia, created a design based on Sarkar’s concept to teach organizations about the value of cooperation and mutual respect.

In the 1980s, the American macrohistorian Lawrence Taub, artist of” The Spiritual Imperative”, made the extraordinary state that the Varna period can be mapped to real people background.

As the diagrams below indicate, Taub made connections between the four castes and particular historical eras. ( Taub used the original sequence of the four Varna ages mentioned in the Vedas: teacher, protector, merchant, worker. )

In Taub’s model, we have just emerged from the Merchant Age. Because of how closely its worldview aligns with the Merchant type, The West was preeminent in the Merchant Age. The Worker Age is about to reach its height. For the same reason, Confucian Asia will be in the spotlight because its worldview most closely resembles that of the worker.

In the 1970s, China reintegrated the traders into society and created a hybrid system based on communism and capitalism. In barely a generation, it became the world’s largest producer and preeminent trading nation.

China has grown to be the world’s largest trading partner for almost all nations, and it has a significant influence on people’s physical well-being. People who live in slums or are in daily battles for survival are at a disadvantage. ( Spiritual development is challenging. ) &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

Taub argued that India will guide us into the Satya Yuga, a renewed age of enlightenment, and that Confucian Asia will help us leave the Worker Age ( and thus the Kali Yuga ). India will be a leader in the new spiritual era because it has the largest body of spiritual wisdom and understanding of the nature of human consciousness.

incorporating stage theory and macrohistory

Stage theories and macrohistories offer new insights into how humanity developed over time. Macrohistory looks for broad, overarching patterns and trends in history, often over centuries or millennia. It attempts to identify recurring themes, structures, and dynamics across time and cultures in an effort to predict possible future events, which is closely related to futurism. &nbsp,

Stage theory argues that history progresses through a series of distinct, sequential stages, often based on specific criteria like consciousness, economics or social organization. When combined, stage theory and macrohistory can provide insight into seemingly contradictory contemporary developments. For example:

* What explains the rise of religious fundamentalism in recent decades, not only in Islam but also in Christianity, Judaism, Hinduism and Buddhism?

* In a world where everything is becoming more and more connected, why do nationalist politicians like Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi prosper?

* Why does a growing number of people in developed countries experience psychological issues as a result of increasing material well-being?

Separately, macrohistories and stage theories can’t explain these seemingly counter-intuitive developments. However, integrated” macrohistorical stage theories” can offer a wider framework for understanding global human development across cultures.

First, macrohistorical stage theories would promote interdisciplinarity and advance our understanding of societal, cultural, and developmental patterns. This would give rise to a more nuanced understanding of how societies move through stages in longer historical cycles.

Second, macrohistories span disciplines like history, sociology and anthropology, while stage theories often incorporate psychology, philosophy and organizational studies. They are integrated, which promotes a holistic view of complex questions.

Third, stage theories frequently emphasize moral, spiritual, or cognitive development, while macrohistories emphasize the larger effects of societal choices made over time. These ideas would be boosted by the incorporation of values-driven approaches to developments that balance short-term goals and short-term actions.

Lastly, macrohistorical stage models should include post-colonial theory, an academic field developed by scholars from previously colonized countries. Post-colonial theory examines the power imbalances and exploitation that occurred both before and after colonialism.

Forgetting the Kali Yuga requires replacing systemic injustices and global inequality with reciprocity and mutuality.

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