The indiscriminate attack by the Hamas criminal organization on Israel on October 7 was much more than that, as evidenced by Israel’s response as well as its ferocity and violence. This may alter the course of the world, just like the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. & nbsp,
China has had a significant impact on these three pivotal events in recent history, demonstrating how badly US-China relationships have deteriorated and where the universe is headed— into another cold war.
China’s answer to the terrorist attacks of September 11 was to help the US at the UN Security Council, just as Russia did. Given their personal domestic issues, such as Chechnya in Russia and the Uyghurs in China, both countries actually stood to gain greatly from the US’s resolve to put an end to Islamic extremism.
Despite the assurance that China would be a business sector after joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, it was still able to maintain its socioeconomic model of state-led socialism based on planning and business plan. China became the US’s primary trading partner, with a$ 400 billion trade surplus in just ten years, while the United States continued to be mired in its anti-terrorist campaign.
After a severe financial crisis that destroyed the American economic system in 2008, US President Barack Obama’s management started to realize that an open-door coverage with China could not last indefinitely.
Obama acknowledged that the US had squandered to much time in the Middle East without realizing that China, a new strength with ambitious global dominant goals, was emerging with his news of the hinge to Asia in 2012.
China’s fall is acknowledged.
Since then, the desire of an open-door relationship with China has been dashed by Donald Trump’s election to office in 2017 and his moves to quickly have China through tariffs and technology transfer restrictions, which have persisted under President Joe Biden rather than the opposite.
The fact that China became the largest trading partner of the majority of nations in the world while the US continued to be excluded from global and business agreements was significant in all these years that US looked the other way.
The US had now lost a significant amount of economic leadership by the time Russia decided to invade Ukraine in February 2022. This was due in large part to the 2008 financial crisis, the Covid-19 crisis, and politics, as evidenced by its withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The sovereign debt crisis of 2010, which prevented the European Union from sufficiently reacting to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, was another shock in its peak. & nbsp,
From that point on, both China’s confusing and nbsp position toward, if never comfortable with, Russia as well as its invasion of Ukraine astounded the rest of the world. One could even contend that, given Russia’s extreme dependence on China, the conflict might have already been resolved in Ukraine favour if China had not provided implicit support for Russia.
In general, the conflict in Ukraine has widened the divide between the West and China, not just because of its stance on Russia but also because it has inspired emerging and developing nations to join forces with the US in defense of their imperial history. & nbsp,
In this framework, China is not an exception to the seismic movements in the Middle East that the latest attack on Israel has sparked, in addition to being extremely unpleasant( as Israel’s response in Gaza is, regrettably).
Middle East and China
Second, it is difficult to accept that Hamas was able to strike Israel so unexpectedly, exactly, and murderously, without any assistance. All eyes are on Iran, whose foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, met with a Hamas leader in Qatar this trip and threatened Israel with the repercussions of its attacks on Palestine.
As if that weren’t enough, Saudi Arabia, which up until the time of the attack was in talks with the US to reach an agreement with Israel for the standardization of its political relations, appears to not want to continue with this approach and, in fact, seems to want the exact opposite, given the sudden recent visit between the rulers of Yemen and Iran.
A few years back, a Hamas attack of this magnitude would have raised concerns among Saudi officials about Iran’s aggression given the two countries’ long-standing rivalry. Yet Saudi Arabia appears comfortable in the face of like terrorist attacks, however, as a result of the recent mutual respect agreement that China brokered.
In that regard, it is abundantly clear that China is not on Israel’s area but rather on that of Palestine from the stance that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China made people in the aftermath of the strikes against Israel and, even more so, from Wang Yi, its foreign minister, most recently stated.
The key point here is that China, as it did in the aftermath of Russia’s war of Ukraine, uses language that opposes that of the US once more. In addition, & nbsp,
This fact is not at all unexpected. China has maintained a pro-Palestinian stance since the day of Mao Zedong. In response to the US energy void, China has recently transitioned from being just one of many trading companions for the Middle East to its primary proper mate.
Furthermore, before the Biden administration took office, China would have been more hesitant to show a pro-Palestinian bias because Israel had permitted the sale of dual-use companies to China for ten years, but lately, things have changed. The harsher approach taken by the Biden administration regarding Israel’s exchange of core technology to China likely gave China more latitude to initiate an Iran-Saudi agreement.
Israel, the US, and the European Union should not be at ease with this at this time, for sure. A planned reduction in fuel production as a means of economic coercion could result from an Iran-Saudi reconciliation, in addition to the clear risks to Israel and Russia’s familiar shadow behind Iran.
two beams
The most far-reaching implications of such a surprise is the unavoidable spread of the world splitting into two wires, in addition to the painful processes of disinflation that have occurred in the West over the past few years. & nbsp,
The US will be able to determine its friends yet more precisely than ever thanks to this new horror. These include, without a doubt, Israel and the European Union, but they also include Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan.
The other shaft is focused on China’s conflict with the US and a winner-takes-all mentality on both sides. While others observe how events turn out, the Middle East may backslide into China’s rod.
Finally, it appears crucial that the West recognizes the historic era in which it is currently residing. Despite greater economic interdependence, what may appear to be a mere” flashback” of the Cold War, which we thought was over, is actually true.
In other words, the attacks on Israel will become remembered as one of three significant occurrences that, along with the terrorist attacks of September 11 and the invasion of Ukraine, preceded and defined the division of the world get into two main alliances, resulting in a new cold war with disastrous repercussions for our societies as well as investors and businesses.
Senior research fellow at Bruegel is Alicia Garcia Herrero. Keep up with her on X @ Aligarciaherrer.