China’s plans to become an agrarian self-sufficiency by 2025 are crucial for both home stability and the broader international food landscape as global food security becomes a pressing issue.
While China remains the world’s largest food producer and exporter, with the largest meal supply system, Beijing remains vigilant about the long-term balance of its foods source.
Beijing continues to promote measures aimed at reducing dependence on outside sources while also boosting local manufacturing and securing outside agricultural investments to assure self-reliance in agrarian production.
Agriculture, the foundation of China’s business, is undergoing a critical change. The nation is transitioning from a “big nation with little farmers” to a “big and robust agricultural nation.”
In light of rising geopolitical tensions, shifting business relations, and environmental concerns, China’s approach to this problem and its ability to maintain its proper position on the global stage will be significant.
In a precarious political climate, China has increased its efforts to ensure a credible and lasting food supply. It also recognizes the urgency of safeguarding the country’s agricultural future.
According to Chinese President Xi Jinping,” The foods of the Chinese people must be produced by and be in the hands of the Taiwanese.” Xi and China’s policymakers have consistently placed food security at the forefront, recognizing it as a” top national priority” ( 国之大者 ) amid an increasingly complex global environment.
Resilience in the food supply has become more important than ever as a result of geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions, climate change, trade disruptions, systemic tensions with the US ( US), and unstable international food markets.
In reply, China has recently raised political objectives for food safety and endurance.  ,  ,
The transfer of China’s 2025″ No. 1 Central Document” on February 23 more underscores this commitment to ensuring national food safety. The report, an important policy speech from the central government, outlines important national targets.
For 2025, it focuses on remote regeneration, agricultural development, and securing the world’s food supply amid domestic and international issues.
The 2025 template highlights six key areas of focus: ensuring a steady supply of grain and important agrarian products, consolidating the gains of poverty alleviation, developing native industries, advancing remote construction, improving remote governance, and optimizing resource allocation in remote areas.
This report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency and steadiness in China’s food supply, positioning the nation to manage international uncertainties. Two key priorities for the nation’s food security strategy for 2025 include:
Ensuring grain supplies
China, the largest agricultural producer and importer in the world, has a significant influence on global grain markets, importing more than 157 million metric tons of soybeans and grains last year. Grain security remains central to China’s food policy, reflecting its crucial role in safeguarding the nation’s long-term food supply.
China’s need to increase output continues to grow despite record-high grain production in recent years, largely due to population growth and dietary changes, which are being driven by China’s growing population’s growing need for more meat, eggs, and dairy products. Maintaining a stable and trustworthy grain supply has become even more important as dietary habits change.
Grain production remains a cornerstone of China’s food security strategy. The 2025″ No. 1 Document” outlines a multi-pronged strategy: stabilizing grain planting areas, raising yields, and improving crop quality.
It uses biotechnology and targeted subsidies to boost the production of soybeans and oilseeds ( like canola and peanuts ) while putting a top priority on expanding production. For instance, pilot loan programs aim to incentivize grain and oilseed production in key regions, alongside inter-provincial coordination to optimize distribution.
At a press conference held by the State Council on February 24, officials stated that food security is still a top priority. Han Wenxiu, director of the Central Rural Affairs Office, warned against complacency, stating,” Grain production must be strengthened, not relaxed. The possibility of temporary price fluctuations shouldn’t let us forget that food security is still fragile.
To safeguard farmer morale, the central government also plan aims to introduce a policy toolkit that includes minimum purchase rates for rice and wheat, with market support purchases in various provinces ( such as Henan, Jiangsu, Heilongjiang, and Anhui ), alongside the expansion of grain storage in key provinces.
These efforts build on the 2024 Central Rural Work Conference, which reaffirmed the government’s commitment to stabilizing domestic grain supply, with a focus on “absolute” stability in wheat and rice production—key pillars of China’s food security.
From 2003 to 2013, domestic grain production rose from 430 million metric tons to s://bioone.org/journals/journal-of-resources-and-ecology/volume-11/issue-4/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.04.004/Changes-in-Chinas-Grain-Production-Pattern-and-the-Effects-of/10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.04.004.full”>over 600 million metric tons, especially in key regions like the Yangtze River, Northeast China, and the North China Plains. Additionally, China has  , designated key areas , for the production of staple crops like double-cropping rice and high-quality wheat in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.
Recent achievements underscore this momentum. In 2024, China’s grain output reached a record high of 706.5 million metric tons, a 1.6 percent increase from the previous year. At the same time, the national average yield per mu ( 0.0067 hectares ) rose to 394.7 kilograms (kg ), an increase of 5.1 kg from 2022. This is largely due to yield improvements contributing to , more than 80 percent , of the overall grain production increase.
To sustain this trajectory, the MARA released a statement in January outlining ambitious targets: raising annual grain production by , 50 million metric tons by 2030 , ( a 7 percent increase ) and maintaining over , 1.75 billion  , mu , ( 117 million hectares ) of farmland dedicated to grain cultivation.
In line with these objectives, China’s current , Five-Year Agricultural Plan , targets annual grain production exceeding 770 million tons, alongside a push to increase domestic soybean production to 23 million tons by 2025. In response to uncertainty surrounding global trade, the central government aims to lessen its reliance on imports from Western nations.
Agricultural innovation and technology
Amid rising supply chain uncertainties and climate challenges, China has prioritized agricultural security and technological self-sufficiency. China’s current” No. 1 document” emphasizes agricultural technology as central to its food security strategy.
The central government plans to accelerate the research and application of advanced, domestically produced agricultural machinery and smart farming systems, including artificial intelligence ( AI), 5G, big data, and low-altitude systems, to enhance efficiency across the sector.
To support this, China aims to establish 500 national-level agricultural industrialization consortiums by 2025. These consortiums will foster collaboration among research institutions, agribusinesses, and farmers, focusing on drought-resistant crops, smart machinery, and sustainable practices.
China is expected to continue encouraging efforts in agricultural innovation, particularly regarding the , productivity of key grains and oilseeds , ( like rice, wheat, corn, soybeans, and rapeseed ) to achieve national food production and related food security goals.
To this end,  , Beijing , has  , consistently emphasized , the need for increased local production, evident in policy measures,  , targets, and , five-year plans.
More broadly, to support this technological transformation and help safeguard the country’s food future, China has already heavily invested in biotechnology and digital technologies. Despite some public opposition, this includes supporting the development of genetically modified ( GM ) crops like soybeans and corn.
Although the country’s plans for food security still contain the commercialization of GM crops, a number of things suggest that it is moving in this direction. Notably, in late 2024, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs ( MARA ) approved safety certificates for 12 GM crop varieties, signaling a long-term strategy to integrate biotechnology into China’s food security framework.
More recently, in February 2025, MARA released the Key Areas of National Agricultural Technology Innovation ( 2024-2028 ) which outlines 10 key priority areas: the cultivation of new agricultural varieties, soil quality improvement, agricultural
machinery equipment development, pest and disease prevention in crops, livestock and aquatic diseases control, efficient planting and breeding, green and low-carbon agriculture, agricultural product processing and food manufacturing, agricultural product quality and safety, and rural development.
The document further underscores the importance of technological innovation in China’s pursuit of global ( agricultural ) leadership, particularly in AI and biotechnologies.
Concurrently, the central Chinese government is pushing to create new seed varieties. Chinese President Xi has called for an independent seed industry in recent years. This goes against previous leadership objectives to bring about technological advancements in seed development.
In order to reduce reliance on imported seeds, current research also looks at high-yield hybrid seed technologies for important crops. These efforts are more broadly linked to national five-years ( such as the , National Medium and Long-term Science and Technology Development Plan ( 2021-2035 ) and the 14th Five-Year Agricultural Plan ( 2021-2025 ), which emphasize the creation of new food sources to achieve China’s broader strategy of agricultural self-sufficiency.
Simultaneously, the country is embracing , digitization , to modernize agriculture, as exemplified by a multitude of national plans like the , National Smart Agriculture Implementation Plan ( 2024-2028 )  , and the 14th Five-Year Plan for Agricultural Modernization ( 2021-2025 ).
The former includes, among others, the construction of , “digital villages”  , and modern agricultural parks aimed at enhancing productivity through technological innovation. China’s goal of transforming agriculture through improved efficiency and digital technologies is crucial to these initiatives.
Food challenges
Significant domestic and international challenges face China’s agricultural transformation and wider efforts to ensure food security. In addition to concerns about growing import reliance on key agricultural products ( such as edible oil ), which reshape the country’s food consumption, and extreme weather events that destroy parts of local production, other factors should be considered.
Despite these successes, challenges remain. Demographic and environmental pressures, which call for significant investment and structural shifts in technology and infrastructure, make scaling up grain production difficult to achieve. China’s ability to accomplish these lofty objectives will depend on how far it can go.
China’s agricultural model, primarily based on small family farms scattered across the country, faces significant challenges to modernization, particularly in adopting , agricultural technologies , and standardizing practices.
Some initiatives, like the , National Agricultural Technology and Education Cloud Platform,  , aim to address these gaps through online training. However, more aggressive efforts are required to expand agricultural innovation to ensure long-term food security.
Additionally, growing certain agricultural products can be , much more expensive , in China than in other countries, such as the US, and the yield may be much lower too. According to data from the United Nations , Food and Agriculture Organization, corn and soybean yields in China are roughly half as high as those in many of the Americas ‘ exporting nations, which have comparatively high yields per hectare.
When it comes to soybeans, for instance, the average yield for soybeans in the US is about 3.5 tons per hectare in comparison to China’s 1.6 tons per hectare.
Similarly, for corn, the average on-farm yield of corn is 11-12 tons per hectare in the US, while China’s average corn yield is 6.2 tons per hectare. Given China’s major water, soil, and arable land constraints, addressing yield gaps is important for Beijing to achieve its food production goals.  ,  ,  ,
Additionally, disposable income increases are causing the country’s changing food consumption structure, with consumers demanding more of the pricey animal protein and dairy, as well as sugar, edible oils, and processed foods. This is reflected in the country’s changing food consumption structure.  , By 2025, China is expected to account for 31 % of the , total global increase of protein consumption.
China’s overall food demand is projected to increase by 16 to 30 % by 2050, while demand for meat like beef and dairy products is projected to nearly double due to the middle class’s continued growth. To meet this demand, some , researchers , argue that up to 12, 000 square kilometers of additional agricultural land within China is necessary.  ,
Financial barriers exacerbate challenges. Smallholder farmers, who manage , more than 70 %  , of China’s agricultural land, are particularly burdened by these financial constraints. Many also struggle with , limited access to credit.
Studies show that 18.87 % of family farms in China , face a gap in operating funds, with , around 26.20 percent , unable to fully bridge funding gaps even after securing lands, further deterring investments in agricultural technologies.
At the same time, local governments are trapped in a vicious cycle of , high debt and dwindling revenues. This implies that they may struggle to raise money for rural initiatives or put a lower price on them. While the government has  , introduced measures , such as , a 10 billion yuan ( US$ 1.38 billion ) in one-off subsidy , in 2023 to boost farmers ‘ incomes, these efforts fail to tackle the underlying financial and structural barriers.
A 2024 debt relief package of , 10 trillion yuan , ($ 1.4 trillion ) also offers limited respite, as municipalities grapple with plummeting revenues from land sales —a consequence of the ongoing real estate crisis.
Local governments will be under even greater fiscal strain as total government debt is projected to rise by nearly 150 percent of the GDP by 2030. As a result, this could put investments into agriculture—such as rural infrastructure and technological innovation—at risk.
Concurrently, China grapples with demographic challenges, including , declining fertility rates , and a shrinking workforce. In 2022, approximately , 176.6 million people , — or 24.1 percent of the workforce — were employed in agriculture, fishing, and related industries.
The vast majority of this workforce (90 % ) are  , smallholder farmers. Nevertheless, the average age of agricultural workers is 53, with over a quarter aged 60 or older. This growing population poses a significant challenge to agricultural productivity and, conversely, wage growth.  ,
Projections are also grim. By 2050, the proportion of the country’s agricultural workforce in China could plunge to , around 3 %, while the total agricultural labor force may fall to under , 31 million.
These workforce issues, which are essential to the agricultural supply chain, extend beyond agriculture and affect industries like transportation and logistics. By the end of 2021, China faced a shortage of 4 million truck drivers, a problem likely to worsen as the working-age population declines and younger people pursue , better opportunities , in cities.
In 2021, the number of , rural migrant workers , reached , 292.51 million, a 2.4 % ( 6.91 million ) year-on-year increase. Due to this demographic shift, China will soon experience a shrinking agricultural workforce and fewer rural workers available for crucial industries like transportation and logistics, which are essential to maintaining food supply chains.
China has made significant advancements in ensuring its food security. But the path to agricultural self-sufficiency by 2025 is fraught with challenges. In the end, the country’s ability to provide a stable and resilient food supply to its expanding population will depend on how well it can overcome these obstacles, which range from technological limitations to demographic shifts.