“The aggression and provocations perpetrated by [China’s maritime forces] over the weekend have only further steeled our determination to defend and protect our nation’s sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction” in the South China Sea,” declared Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr after yet another major incident in the hotly disputed waters.
According to Philippine authorities, a contingent of Chinese maritime forces “harassed, blocked and executed dangerous maneuvers” against a resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal, a contested feature hosting a small Philippine military contingent.
Manila claims that at least two Philippine Coast Guard vessels were damaged after getting water-cannoned by Chinese counterparts. And no less than the Philippine military chief directly witnessed the latest encounter between the two rival claimants.
Meanwhile, a civil-society-led mission to the same area meant to express public support for Filipino troops stationed in the area was called off after four Chinese vessels shadowed them en route to Second Thomas Shoal.
The twin incidents provoked outrage in Manila, with senior legislative leaders openly calling for expulsion of the Chinese envoy to the Philippines.
China has countered by insisting that it was the Philippine vessels that had “illegally intruded” in its waters. It characterized its latest actions as simply part of broader “control measures” in accordance “with [Chinese] law.”
Far from a limited operation over a tiny shoal, however, China is determined is regain the initiative in the South China Sea.
Last week, China dispatched an armada of militia forces to another Philippine-claimed feature in the area, a prelude to likely new reclamation activities in the Spratly Islands. By flexing its massive naval capabilities, the Asian superpower seeks to intimidate Southeast Asian nations as well as test America’s resolve to assist its regional allies.
Blame game
Since 1999, a small detachment of Filipino troops have been precariously stationed on BRP Sierra Madre, a former US Navy ship the Philippines grounded in 1999 at Second Thomas Shoal. With the rusty, dilapidated vessel expected to give way to the elements in the near future, both Manila and Beijing have ramped up their activities in the area.
China insists that the disputed land feature falls within its nine-dash-line maritime territory, which covers more than 80% of the South China Sea basin and includes the major Pratas, Paracels and Spratlys island chains as well as prized features such as Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, which fall within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
In 2016, an arbitral tribunal body at The Hague, formed under the aegis of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), ruled against China’s expansive claims in the area and, crucially, determined that disputed features such as Second Thomas Shoal are “low-tide” elevations, which can’t be claimed as a territory.
Since the disputed shoal falls within the Philippines’ EEZ, the Southeast Asian nation claims it as part of its continental shelf.
But China has rejected the Philippines’ claims as well as the 2016 arbitral award ruling. Over the past decade, the Asian superpower has dramatically ramped up its efforts to exercise effective control over a whole host of disputed features in the area by, among other things, restricting Philippine resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal.
With the Marcos administration taking an increasingly uncompromising stance in the South China Sea, while doubling down on his country’s defense alliance with the US, China has begun to switch gears. The upshot is multiple encounters in recent months alone, but this time was different.
“It’s pure aggression. I [personally] witnessed how many times the big Chinese coast guard and militia ships cut our path. They water-cannoned us, then bumped us. It’s angering,” exclaimed General Romeo Brawner Jr, chief of the Armed Forces of the Philippines.
“This really needs a diplomatic solution at the higher level,” he added, emphasizing the Philippine military’s commitment to stand its ground in the disputed waters.
Burning bridges
“This is a serious escalation on the part of the agents of the People’s Republic of China,” Jonathan Malaya, spokesman of the Philippine National Security Council, warned during a press conference.
Despite harassment by Chinese forces, Philippine authorities have pressed ahead with resupply missions. And with the 2025 midterm elections fast approaching, top politicians have also joined the fray, tapping into rising anti-China sentiment among voters.
House of Representatives Speaker Martin Romualdez, a first cousin of the president and known for his own ambitions for the highest office, called on Beijing to “take immediate and concrete actions to cease these aggressive activities and uphold the principles of international law.” In a statement, he emphasized that his country “stands firm in its sovereignty and jurisdiction over Bajo de Masinloc and its territorial sea.”
Meanwhile, his counterpart in the Philippine Senate, Miguel Zubiri, went so far as to suggest a potential downgrade in bilateral diplomatic relations. “I urge President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr to send the current Chinese ambassador home,” Zubiri said.
“He has done nothing to address the continued attacks of his government on our troops and on our people,” he added.
In response, Beijing has blamed the Philippines for provoking tensions in the South China Sea. According to the China Coast Guard, their Filipino counterparts ignored numerous warnings and “deliberately swerved and collided in an unprofessional, dangerous manner” with a Chinese boat.
“The responsibility lies entirely with the Philippines,” Chinese authorities added, revealing little appetite for compromise. It remains to be seen how far the Asian superpower is willing to go to prevent Manila from fortifying its position over contested features such as Second Thomas Shoal.
What’s clear is that China is determined to remind the Philippines, and other rival claimants in Southeast Asia, of its massive naval superiority. China is also determined to press the Philippines in the South China Sea in order to dissuade it from granting the Pentagon full access to its northernmost bases near Taiwan’s shores under the expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).
But aside from intimidating smaller regional states, China is also intent on testing America’s resolve. As in previous incidents, Washington was quick to condemn Beijing’s latest actions.
“Obstructing supply lines to this long-standing outpost and interfering with lawful Philippine maritime operations undermines regional stability,” the US State Department said in statement.
“The United States stands with our Philippine allies in the face of these dangerous and unlawful actions. We reaffirm that Article IV of the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft – including those of its Coast Guard – anywhere in the South China Sea,” it added.
But employing increasingly aggressive “gray zone” tactics, which fall short of “armed attacks” on rival claimants, China has so far exposed the relative limits of the Philippine-US alliance. As a result, the US is scrambling for a new strategy to prevent a major conflict in the area but also to dissuade China from intimidating rival claimants with relative impunity.
The upshot is an increasingly perilous game of chicken not only between China and rival claimants in the South China Sea, but also between the world’s two superpowers in a vital international body of water.