In a bold move in the face of what appears to be a full-fledged trade war with the United States, China announced a 5 % economic growth goal for 2025.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang stated in a speech at the opening ceremony of the National People’s Congress ( NPC ) this year that the country’s economy would maintain its growth momentum and serve as a key force in an “uncertain” global economic landscape.
He argued that China’s goal of producing a gross domestic product ( GDP ) of about 5 % is achievable, underscoring his country’s commitment to confront challenges head-on and working hard to deliver. Li claimed that the goal is in line with the nation’s medium- and long-term growth objectives.
He predicted that this year, the government may acquire a reasonably loose monetary policy and a more strategic fiscal policy. Li added that other encouraging measures would be the launch of specific initiatives to increase consumption, the issuance of more ultra-long specific treasury bonds, the greater allocation of science and technology funding to basic research, and the creation of new, high-quality productive forces.
According to Xinhua, China’s ability to wind headwinds and keep long-term economic growth is attributable to its unique administrative strengths and numerous advantages, including an enormous market, a comprehensive business system, a wealth of manpower and talent, and powerful governance mechanisms like long-term development plans.  ,
Without making any reference to the Sino-US business battle, Xinhua claimed that the Chinese economy may continue to support itself and the rest of the world by defying “skepticism.”
It added that a rising industry with the potential for high-quality development will result in the development of a boom in fields like robotics, robotics, new energy, and intelligent manufacturing. DeepSeek unveiled its most recent AI design, DeepSeek-R1, in January, which is now widely used in China.
Beijing’s positive remarks came after the Sino-US trade conflict grew worse over the previous quarter. Following the previous 10 % tariff, which went into effect on February 4, the US imposed an additional 10 % tariff on all imports from China on March 4.
Since the start of the Sino-US trade conflict in 2018, US President Donald Trump had previously imposed an ordinary 20 % tariff on Chinese products.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested on Tuesday that the US will soon reach tariff settlement agreements with the two neighbors, despite the US’s 25 % tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico.
In a report released on Wednesday, Ming Ming, chief analyst at CITIC Securities, stated that” China’s import growth will ultimately be dragged down by about three percentage points in 2025.”  ,
He claims that the new tariffs will put pressure on China’s textile imports.
” Nevertheless, the growing need for China’s products from emerging markets like ASEAN and Latin America has continued to rise since 2024, and the global competitiveness of China’s imports of mid-to-high-end manufactured goods has also slowly increased,” he said. These elements are anticipated to mitigate China’s potential negative effects of the US taxes.
Wang Tao, general China scholar and nose of Asia Economic Research at UBS Investment Bank, predicted that China may be impacted by the growing Sino-US trade war after a 10 % US tax on Chinese goods went into effect on February 4.  ,
She said that if the US imposes a 10 % tariff on Chinese goods and keeps doing it, it may hurt China’s exports, domestic investment, and consumption, and cause China’s GDP growth to decline by 0.3-6.4 %.
She anticipated a moderate decline in the Chinese money and a rise in policy support from the Chinese authorities. She predicted that China’s GDP would increase by about 4 % by 2025.
China’s reprisals
Trump ordered China to impose a fresh round of trade sanctions because Beijing hasn’t taken sufficient steps to stop the supply of fentanyl intermediates to Mexican drugmakers.
China’s State Council Information Office released a White Paper on Tuesday to maintain strict control over fentanyl-related drugs, fight against fentanyl-related acts, implement comprehensive measures for better medicine command, and promote global management of fentanyl-related ingredients.  ,
The US is in charge of the fentanyl turmoil inside the US, not anyone else. We have taken strong measures to help the US in resolving the issue in the heart of civilization and kindness toward the British people, according to Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry.  ,
The US has attempted to denigrate and shift the blame to China, and it has also attempted to force and blackmail China by imposing tariff increases. They have punished us for our assistance.
Lin argued that China may be scared of intimidation and bullying. If China wants to fix the fentanyl problem, he said, the US should discuss with China on justice, common respect, and common benefit.
We’re prepared to fight until the end, Lin said,” If the US has an objective in mind and a conflict is what the US wants, whether it’s a price war, a business conflict, or any other kind of war.”
On March 10, China’s Customs Tax Commission of the State Council announced on Tuesday that it would impose an additional 15 % tax on imported meat, wheat, maize, and cloth from the US. Additionally, it added that an additional 10 % tariff will apply to the United States ‘ sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products.  ,
Coking fuel, liquified natural gas, and eight other types of US energy items are subject to a 15 % tax starting on February 10. Additionally, it has levied a 10 % tax on 72 different US products, including agricultural machinery, crude oil, large-division vehicles, and electric ones.
Losing US commands
Some Chinese companies are losing National orders and are under significant financial pressure, despite China’s tariffs hurting American exporters.
Small shops in Yiwu in Zhejiang started panic selling when Trump announced in a post on Truth Social on February 26 that he would increase US tariffs to 20 % for Chinese products, according to a Hubei-based business journalist in an article. Before March 4,” Shop masters knew they had to buy as many items as possible or they would gain money.”
According to the writer, Wang Jianjun, a Zhejiang-based manufacturer of Christmas lights, has 3 million yuan ( 413,705 ) of goods on hand and wants to hit a 5 % profit margin. He claims that Wang is currently dealing with a bad 15 % ratio or a net loss of 70, 000 renminbi as a result of Trump’s taxes.
He claims that Zhang Lei, a production manager in Shenzhen, just borrowed 2 million renminbi to improve his production facilities before losing 40 % of purchases. Zhang is currently unable to pay back the bank loans and owes his employees 180, 000 renminbi.
Foreign manufacturers aiming at Amazon customers in the US have had a cold winter since early February, according to AMZ123, a Chinese site. According to the report, some Taiwanese manufacturers saw a 50 % decline in orders while others were unable to sell anything at all during the previous month.  ,
Some US consumers have cut back on their payments in order to save more money, according to the report, because they anticipate prices to profit.
Trump and then-Chinese Vice Premier Liu He signed the Phase One Trade Agreement on January 20, 2020, under which China agreed to increase its US trade deficit.
However, it did not request China comply with the demands of the Phase One Trade Agreement after the Biden presidency took office in Washington in January 2021. China ultimately just managed to fulfill about 60 % of the products industry limit.
China and the US had a business deficit of$ 295.4 billion last year, up from$ 419.2 billion in 2018. Some Chinese manufacturers moved their factories to Southeast Asian nations to evade US tariffs, including via shipping, as part of the decline.  ,
In 2024, the United States ‘ trade deficit with ASEAN was$ 227.7 billion, up from$ 99.6 billion in 2018. The trade deficit between ASEAN and China increased from$ 73 billion to$ 90 billion last year.
China’s deficit with ASEAN increased by around$ 120 billion in 2024, almost compensating for the country’s surplus with the US, which decreased by about$ 90 billion in 2024. In other words, Trump’s 2018 taxes forced some Taiwanese companies to leave the country, but they did not actually help the US reduce its business deficit with China.  ,
Yong Jian contributes to the Asia Times. He is a journalist from China who writes about politics, Chinese technology, and the business.  ,
Read more about the Sino-US trade war as it unfolds on medicine.