China exports shift south

Preview of this week’s Global Polarity Monitor: China’s exports fell 12.4% YoY in June, mainly due to weakness in development markets and the global electronics industry. Taiwan’s exports were down 19.6%, by way of comparison. But there are some notable patterns in the Chinese data. Exports to the Global South fell from an historic high, and continue to surpass exports to developed markets. EV exports led a surge in exports to Russia, shunned by European automakers. Turkey and Mexico both showed strong growth. Although exports to ASEAN were down, they are still at double the level of 2017. China’s exports to the Global South have a high proportion of capital and intermediate goods, including digital infrastructure. That contributes to China’s goal of raising productivity through AI and high-speed data transmission.