WHERE ASEAN HAS FAILED
Since the fight started more than three years ago, when Myanmar’s military junta seized power in a revolt, the local clustering has been having trouble playing the key mediator position.
ASEAN’s victory banks strongly on Myanmar’s application of the Five-Point Consensus, a peace plan agreed upon by all leaders of the union, which includes an instant cessation of murder, creative dialogue, and provision of charitable aid.
The discussion has so far been a failure, with the coup refusing to join the agreements.
Authorities said there are indications that Thailand might remain reconsidering its Myanmar plan and taking on a more active part with fresh Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin.
We’ve clearly seen a more strategic approach and a willingness to play a more natural role as a mediator and peacemaker under the new leadership in Bangkok, said Dr. Wong.
Beijing, for its work, has been unable to keep Myanmar’s defense or military parties to the peace. In recent months, poradic fighting has continued and gotten worse, leading to air defense and live-fire training in China’s neighbor’s vicinity.
CHINA’S MEDIATION Work
China brokered the ceasefire agreement between the military and an ally of racial minority guerrilla groups in January, alarmed by the overflow of violence when five people were injured in Yunnan, in its southwest province, after an ordnance barrel crossed from Myanmar.
One of Myanmar’s strongest friends, Beijing has relationships with the key people in the fight, including the coup, cultural forces, the human National Unity Government, and Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy group. It is also close to Laos, the current ASEAN chair.
This puts Beijing in a prime position for peace efforts, said observers.
China is not just engaged in facilitation, but also a mediating function. China has more influence than any other stakeholders, and has leverage on all the stakeholders, ” said Mr Amara Thiha, a researcher from the Peace Research Institute Oslo.
He added that to safeguard its investments and interests in the nation, Myanmar needs to be stabilized.
“China’s mediation in Myanmar is not just about protecting its economic interests, it’s of strategic interest in the longer term … ( to prevent ) a power vacuum where external actors, Western actors could come in, ” he said.
Beijing has tried to avoid taking explicit sides in the conflict, according to Dr. Digby James Wren, senior advisor at the Royal Academy of Cambodia’s International Relations Institute, and has instead chosen to work with all parties as a mediator.
China is trying to find the shortest possible friction. It wants ( the situation ) to be as stable as possible. He said,” I do n’t believe the Chinese government is actively supporting any activities against the Myanmar government, but I do n’t believe they are providing as much support as they might have previously,” he said.