US recession goes AWOL as inflation cools…for now

When the Federal Reserve Board raises interest rates, the market is expected to experience the following effects: a decline in demand for goods and services, an increase in employment, and stagnation in economic development. Rising costs are feared by the crisis. Higher unemployment is a sign of crisis, which is the method by which higher rates control inflation.

The Fed has raised interest rates 11 days, for a complete boost of five full percentage points, over the past 18 months. Although” core” inflation( minus volatile food and energy prices ) is more like 4 %, inflation has significantly decreased from the 9 % annual rate it reached at its peak and is now around 3 %.

However, unemployment is shockingly low — under 4 %. The sector is still expanding as well.

The consumer price index has fallen to near 3% from 9.1% in June of 2022. There's a debate about why and that debate has implications for the future of interest rates. (Bureau of Labor Statistics Chart)
From 9.1 % in June 2022, the consumer price index has decreased to almost 3 %. There is a discussion about why, and that discussion has implications for how interest charges will change in the future. Bureau of Labor Statistics Chart

Therefore, there has been a disconnect between the outcome( inflation decreasing ) and the mechanism by which it was achieved( recession not occurring ). Naturally, this has raised questions about what is happening and what the Fed should be doing right then and has led to confusion.

The focus of this discussion is on two issues: Why didn’t higher levels lead to a downturn? What caused interest rates to fall if the crisis system didn’t work?

The near-term future of interest rates is at stake in this discussion for producers, farmers, and different business loans. Does prices increase? Did they remain high for how long?

The Fed had faith in the process when it began raising rates. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Fed, has repeatedly warned that price increases will slow the economy. The central bank was ready for a crisis and significantly higher employment because it was so dedicated to eradicating prices.

In a statement from 2022, Powell said,” These are the unfortunate costs of reducing cpi.” However, failing to bring about price stability may result in much greater suffering.

However, thus far, high interest rates have primarily hurt the consumers who must pay them. Few Americans have lost their jobs as a result of them. The anticipated crisis is no longer present.

Or is the arrival merely a minor tardy? A recession, according to one school of thought, is just around the corner. High interest rates haven’t already hit home, but they soon will.

Consider business loans as evidence in favor of this school of thought. Some businesses locked in lower costs for a few years during the crisis. The Fed’s rate increases haven’t yet had an impact on them, but those debts will eventually need to be renewed at significantly higher levels. That will help the economy lose some of its weather.

If the delayed-recession theory is correct, the Fed may soon start lowering interest rates, particularly if inflation stays average.

According to another school of thought, prices is simply taking a break and isn’t actually dying. In the 1970s, that is what took place. After a brief period of decline, prices picked up and soared also higher. Prices will rise and remain large longer if the Fed determines that inflation is still alive and well.

Some propose the following theory to explain how inflation subsided without unemployment rising: In contrast to some inflationary episodes, this single involved too few goods rather than an excessive amount of money chasing them. It occurred as a result of the pandemic’s disruption of supply chains and the scarcity of merchandise. The inflationary motor ran out of fuel once the supply chain flaws were fixed.

On April 12, 2021, in Washington, DC, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and US President Joe Biden are shown participating in a CEO Summit on Semiconductor and Supply Chain Resilience. Asia Times documents, Amr Alfiky, and Pool photos

To put it another way, despite the fact that they may have contributed, prices wasn’t primarily defeated by the Fed’s price increases. It was the strange supply disruption’s natural unwinding. the unwinding pinch-hit for crisis as a different method of controlling inflation. The Fed will be less likely to raise rates or keep them large if it accepts this idea.

Normally, the Fed hasn’t stated how little, if at all, it invests in any of these concepts. A few weeks ago, Fed chair Powell delivered a significant statement that alternated between sounding aggressive and dovish.

The Fed is even more data-dependent than usual as a result of yesterday’s combination of lower prices and ongoing low employment. If inflation increases or the economy warms up, it will slim aggressive; if unemployment rises or inflation falls, the market will purr like a dove.

Fed politicians are going to have a heated internal discussion if either inflation or unemployment stagnates at the present level, or both do.

The best situation for business debtors is for prices to keep falling, enabling the Fed to win and begin lowering rates. Watch the inflation figures the government releases in the coming weeks if you’re trying to predict the interest rate the bank will charge you second spring.

Urban Lehner, a longtime editor and correspondent for the Wall Street Journal Asia, is now the editor-emeritus of DTN / The Progressive Farmer. & nbsp,

Copyright 2023 DTN / The Progressive Farmer is the title of this article, which was first released on September 12 by the latter news organization and is now being republished with authority by Asia Times. All right are reserved. Urban Lehner andnbsp on Twitter: @ urbanize

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Malaysia’s roti canai listed as best bread in the world, Singapore’s roti prata comes at number 12

Obviously, people from all over the world have started arguing about why they think their nation’s food should be at the top of the list in the comments section of andnbsp and TasteAtlas social media posts. What’s the distinction between roti canai and rotti pesto, though? is one of the main points of contention throughout the whole conversation.

Yet TasteAtlas stepped in and published an overall article highlighting the differences between the two food after the query kept coming up.

Evidently, the differences between the two are their preparing techniques and materials. Ghee is used to knead the roti canai, giving the flour a springy and delicate texture. The bakery has a crunchy interior after it has been fried, and its exterior is crispy.

Roti pesto, on the other hand,” is usually made with a combination of bread, water, sugar, and condensed milk ,” which gives the food an even sweeter flavor and texture.

Roti canai and bread pesto are delightful regardless of your position on this issue, we can all agree.

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PLA claims US stirring Ukraine-like ‘proxy war’ for Taiwan

After the United States and the Canadian navies sailed two warships through the area last Saturday( September 9 ), China’s Peoples Liberation Army( PLA ) Air Force and Navy sent dozens of aircraft and vessels to the Taiwan Strait. & nbsp,

The Eastern Theater Command deployed at least 22 plane and 20 warships, including the Shandong aircraft aircraft, to the places around Taiwan in the 24 days leading up to 6 am on Tuesday Taiwan day, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, a self-governing island. & nbsp,

13 aircraft were among those that entered Taiwan’s Southwest Air Defence Identification Zone( ADIZ ). According to statistics going back to August of last year, the number of Chinese warships deployed was the highest ever, according to media reports.

Taiwan claimed that in order to respond to China’s provocation, its armed forces have been keeping an eye on the situation and assigned combat air patrol ( CAP ) aircraft, navy vessels, and land-based missile systems. & nbsp,

After the USS Ralph Johnson and the Halifax-class ship HMCS Ottawa crossed the Taiwan Strait on September 9, the PLA made its walk. The US Navy stated that it wants to guarantee freedom of navigation in the area.

The Voice of the Strait, a radio station based in Fujian founded by the PLA, asserted on Tuesday that the US has recently increased military aid and arms sales to Taiwan in an effort to reenact its” substitute combat” in Ukraine there.

The Democratic Progressive Party ( DPP ), Taiwan’s ruling party, is to be used by the US as its proxy-agent to tighten its grip on Taiwan and attempt to start a war when the time is right, according to the broadcast. It aims to weaken mainland China and stifle China’s development by using the brutal conflict between Taiwanese citizens across the Strait.

According to the content, Beijing has the knowledge and power to thwart Washington’s purported war program while the US” misjudged” the situation. & nbsp,

Biden’s remarks

While in Vietnam on Sunday, US President Joe Biden stated to the media that China’s slowing business makes it less likely that the country will attack Taiwan in the near future.

” I don’t believe this will lead China to attack Taiwan. In actuality, it definitely doesn’t have the same power as it did previously, according to Biden.

He claimed that due to high youth unemployment and issues with the real estate market, the Chinese govt is currently experiencing financial crisis. & nbsp,

Between September 10 and 11, Biden spoke briefly with Chinese Premier Li Qiang while the G20 height was taking place in New Delhi, India. & nbsp,

Biden added that the US does not want to impede the expansion of the Foreign economy. Li stated that the US may step up markets and that China’s growth is an opportunity rather than a challenge. & nbsp,

Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said on Tuesday that” all kinds of opinions predicting the decline of China’s market keep resurfacing every now and then.” However, China’s market is more resilient than all of them. Like language, no China’s economy, is what has collapsed.

Mao predicted that the fundamentals and solid resilience of the Chinese economy would not change. She claimed that as China develops, its Asian relatives and the rest of the world will have more options.

government support

The Biden administration announced on July 28 that it would give Taiwan up to$ 345 million in foreign military financing ( FMF ) aid. The leadership gave the go-ahead for a fresh round of wings sales to Taiwan on August 23.

It announced its intention to give Taiwan a first$ 80 million round of FMF guidance on August 29 to the US Congress. & nbsp,

On August 31, Wang Wenbin, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, stated that the US may stop producing factors that may exacerbate tensions in the Taiwan Strait and prevent supporting separatist efforts to compel” Taiwan self-reliance.”

According to an editorial published by Chinatimes.com on September 6, Biden’s recent decision to support the Taiwanese FMF may incite issue, according to Cankaoxiaoxi( Reference News ), a newspaper run by the state-run Xinhua News Agency in China. Chinatimes.com is regarded as a pro-Beijing media source that was published in Taiwan. & nbsp,

According to the Cankaoxiaoxi essay, there will be an increase in anti-China sentiment in the US as the national election season approaches. According to the statement, Biden must advance the Fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act, which he ratified in December. & nbsp,

Biden has really reduced FMF aid to Taiwan because, according to the article, he also wants to avoid inciting China. However, the content claimed that the DPP stirred things up by exaggerating the effects of US assistance, making up excuses for purchasing arms, and praising its own military readiness. & nbsp,

According to the article, the DPP’s” bad mindset” and choices have grown to be the biggest dangers to Taiwanese safety. & nbsp,

Study: Gou from Foxconn is keeping an eye on Taiwan’s administration.

At & nbsp, @ jeffpao3 is Jeff Pao’s Twitter account.

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Bangkok to host Sustainability Expo 2023

Bangkok to host Sustainability Expo 2023
Tongjai Thanachanan, SX director, Lars Svensson, chairman of the Sustainability Working Group, Thai-Swedish Chamber of Commerce, Pornphrom Vikitsreth, advisor to the governor of Bangkok, and Jeremiah Pitakwong, CEO Media & amp, Event Business for the Amarin Group will be present at a press conference on Tuesday, September 29, 2018, at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok. Wichan Charoenkiatpakul( photos )

From September 29 to October 8, the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center( QSNCC) in Bangkok’s Khlong Toei region will host the Sustainability Expo 2023, the biggest such event in the Asean area.

The SX producer, Tongjai Thanachanan, informed the press on Tuesday that the now-annual event will be held for a third time and will concentrate on the” Good Balance, Better World” idea.

The occasion did identify innovations and sustainability trends while paying tribute to His Majesty King Maha Vajiraklaochaoyuhua, who maintains and expands royal projects for the good and joy of the populace.

embedded information

Following His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej The Great’s( Rama IX ) sufficiency economy philosophy, the expo will have the theme” Sufficiency for Sustainability.” Thai Beverage will serve as the SX 2023 host, along with Frasers Property, PTT Global Chemical, Siam Cement Group( SCG ), and Thai Union Group.

About 320, 000 people are anticipated to enter the 10-day event, which will include more than 100 organizations, 250 guest lecturers, and 500 regional and global responsible business sites.

It has five zones:” SEP Inspiration” to share ideas about sufficiency economy philosophy,” Better Me ,” to assist people in learning how to live happily with others from different generations ,” Better Living to promote activities or projects by leading companies focusing on a clean environment and circular economy, and” Bester World” and nbsp to exhibit sustainability-related arts.

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City to host Sustainability Expo 2023

City to host Sustainability Expo 2023
At a press conference held yesterday regarding the Sustainability Expo 2023 ( SX2023 ), which will take place at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok from September 29 to October 8, Tongjai Thanachanan, SX director, Lars Svensson, chairman of the Sustainable Working Group, Thai-Swedish Chamber of Commerce, Pornphrom Vikitsreth, advisor to the governor of Bangkok, and Jeremiah Pitakwong, CEO Media & amp, Event Business for the Amarin Group Wichan Charoenkiatpakul ( Photos )

The largest such event in the Asean region, the Sustainability Expo 2023 ( SX 203 ), will take place from September 29 to October 8 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok.

The fourth-annual function, which will center on a” Good Balance, Better World” idea, will be held, SX director Tongjai Thanachanan announced to the internet yesterday.

The occasion may show sustainability trends and improvements and pay tribute to His Majesty King Maha Vajiraklaochaoyuhua, who upholds and expands royal projects for the good and joy of the populace.

embedded material

Following the sufficient business idea started by His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej The Great, the exhibition will have the style” Sufficiency for Sustainability.” Thai Beverage, Frasers Property, PTT Global Chemical, Siam Cement Group( SCG ), and Thai Union Group will all serve as SX 2023’s hosts.

About 320, 000 people are anticipated to enter the 10-day event, which will include more than 100 organizations, 250 guest lecturers, and 500 regional and global responsible business sites.

It has five zones:” SEP Inspiration” to share ideas about sufficiency economy philosophy,” Better Me ,” to assist people in learning to coexist peacefully with people from various generations, and” Bester Living ,” which promotes activities or projects by leading businesses focusing on a clean environment and circular economy. Additionally, it has four zones to display sustainability-related artwork.

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Rush for rare earth minerals in Southeast Asia compounding dangers for region’s environmental defenders: Report

TURNING Goals

Without solutions or safeguards, soldiers may consider themselves the victims of” lawfare” implemented by governments, who have the power to use legislation to intimidate critics. & nbsp,

For instance, in the Philippines, activists can be” red-tagged” by security forces, the federal police, or state officials in an effort to quell their opposition to projects. This is essentially the same as accusing activists of communist rebellion.

According to Mr. Bonifacio, it is important to hold government agencies, businesses, and social media tycoons accountable for their involvement in inciting or facilitating assault against people.

He cited the continued troubling incident of two young adult activists who were kidnapped by unidentified men on September 2 while visiting a neighborhood in Manila Bay for land reclamation. If the two were in prison, authorities had not yet provided confirmation.

” People are working on the front lines and doing amazing things.” And their job undoubtedly inspires you. However, he claimed that they are also the ones who are being killed, attacked, harassed, and arrested.

” To defend our climate defenders and actively acknowledge the problems at hand, it starts with trying to break that tradition of violence, holding people guilty, and really taking these concrete actions, policy or whatever.”

At the council level in the House of Representatives in February, a bill from the Philippines that aims to defend human rights defenders and condemn harassment or violence against them was approved. & nbsp,

The possible bill has not yet been passed into law, according to a government committee, which described it as” grave, cruel, and insidious threat against the Philippines’ democratic way of life.”

Experts and activists in Indonesia, where 17 defenders have reportedly been killed since 2012, criticized next year’s Criminal Code amendments for having the potential to erode environmental protections while allowing for the oppression of property protectors.

According to the rules, businesses must be shown to be breaking specific regulations before they can be charged with economic crimes, which places a heavier burden of proof on those who take action against polluters.

The code also lessens penalties for economic crimes and makes it a crime to criticize the chairman, making public works projects probably illegal. It is not expected to be completely enacted until 2025 and can be legitimately challenged.

Five well-known climate activists in Vietnam have spent the last two years in prison for tax evasion, claims that their supporters have claimed are politically motivated. & nbsp,

There are grave worries that civil society is being effectively excluded from discussions about the energy transition given the criminalization of climate defenders and rights activists in Vietnam, according to the report.

Another potential solutions are being considered in different parts of the world, such as the nomination of a second United Nations Special Rapporteur on Environmental Defenders, to whom the general public may file complaints. It is the first global device created to safeguard defenders from harm’s way.

Furthermore, the European Union is now negotiating legislation that would mandate global enterprise application on the part of large corporations.

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