Asia (Page 2,504)

The Talisman Saber 2023 exercise has finished in Australia. The exercise included 13 countries and was an impressive and complex mix of amphibious, maritime, ground, air and combined arms training. And all geared toward war-fighting. Even Japan’s Self-Defense Force (JSDF) sent a contingent.

Japan’s contingent included the Japanese navy, along with amphibious ships JS Izumo and JS Shimokita. It also sent the Ground Self-Defense Force’s “Marines” – the Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade (ARDB) – and the Japanese army’s 1st Helicopter Brigade.

The Japanese even took advantage of Australia’s wide open training ranges to launch Type 12 surface-to-ship (anti-ship) missiles as well as Type 03 surface-to-air (anti-aircraft) missiles. They seldom do this sort of training in Japan. 

And the GSDF brought other units from the Western Army, Eastern Army, and Northern Army. They even included the artillery training detachment from GSDF’s Fuji Schools. This gave them practice and also exposure to operations with foreign militaries and in a “foreign” environment.

It’s come a long way

By any measure, the JSDF has come a long way in recent years. A little over a decade ago, Japan was afraid to even deploy forces to its own southern islands.

The idea of sending the JSDF thousands of miles from Japan to conduct combat training, and with a collection of foreign militaries, would have given many Japanese politicians and the Asahi Shimbun editorial board the vapors. 

On the United States side, State Department Japan Hands ー and more than a few people at USINDOPACOM ー could have told you it was all impossible and would never happen. And beyond that, the Chinese wouldn’t like it so don’t let it.

So it’s great the Japanese military went to Australia. But it’s bad the Japanese military went to Australia.

Huh? Here’s the problem. 

It is impressive, indeed. One almost rejoices to see what the once insular JSDF is doing, and the scale of it all in a major multilateral exercise. 

But they need to do this sort of training up closer to home – in and around Japan.

That’s where the trouble is coming and the fight will happen. 

The problem isn’t the JSDF. Rather, one fairly notes that Japanese officialdom – including some defense bureaucrats – are too timid, as is their wont. They don’t have a sense of urgency about what’s coming their way.  

Yes, they understand China (and Russia and North Korea) are a threat, and a scary one at that. But doing something about it? That’s a different story.

This writer will be more impressed when Japanese officialdom and society allow their own JSDF (particularly the Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade) to train in their own maritime terrain. “Key maritime terrain” is what it’s called in military lingo. And that means training with the Americans and the Australian Defense Force together. 

There’s been some useful but relatively limited training between the US Marines and GSDF. But it’s not what it should be.

“NIMBY” (not in my backyard) is still strong. 

Catching up to the shifting public mood

This writer thinks Tokyo is misreading the shifting mood and views of the Japanese public in general. And people in Okinawa Prefecture, including the Sakishima Shoto, in particular. 

Too many pundits and bureaucrats are clinging to old, worn-out positions vis-a-vis the JSDF, the US-Japan alliance and deterrence. Those old positions are losing support, especially among working-age people. 

One supposes Japanese policymakers feel comfortable in being slow to adjust since they have an insurance policy with the Americans in Japan and nearby. That buys them time to make decisions, they think. 

Anyone involved in Japan-US military and defense matters over the years would recognize the following statement: “They just seek our assurances that we have their back from time to time and then do just enough to keep us engaged.”

If the Americans push too hard for real and useful training with the Japanese ー much less a combined Japan-US operational headquarters ー Tokyo will say they are saber-rattling and being provocative. 

Of course, plenty of people will also claim it’s all just “too sensitive” politically for Japan ー and they’re doing their best. So don’t complain.

However, expecting the Americans to die on Japan’s behalf while Japan hasn’t done enough for itself (and for its partners) is also just “too sensitive” politically. But for the Americans.

Defense documents are just the first step

Sometimes one hears that since Japan’s three foundational defense documents were rewritten in December 2022, “counterstrike capability” (long-range missiles) are on order. Along with it, one hears that defense spending is set to double over five years – it’s “mission accomplished.”

Not quite. Now you need a military that can fight and an industry that can produce what’s needed. Along with it, how about a society that knows it’s got a direct stake in the matter and acts like it?

That requires a sense of urgency – that a government must have and create in society writ large.

Some people have that sense of urgency. Some don’t. 

Nobukatsu Kanehara, a former national security official and adviser to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, was quoted in the Wall Street Journal recently on whether Japan would help the United States defend Taiwan:

“We are building up our army, navy and air force, as well as space and cyber capabilities. Maybe in five years when our new shape is clearer, we will have to talk about new roles and missions in the region.”

Let’s get this straight. Mr Kanehara is talking about waiting five years before deciding what Japan might or might not do. In the meantime, Japan expects the Americans to take care of things and die on Japan’s behalf.  

That’s not exactly a vote getter in Washington. Some Japanese are embarrassed by this notion. But Kanehara reflects a strain of thought in much of Japan’s older “elite” foreign policy class. And many on the US side take him as gospel, rather than saying to the Japanese, “Wait a minute! We need you to do this, this, and that.”

A sense of urgency

There is no time to waste.

Sadly, as is the case with many examples in post-Cold War Japan, something traumatic or semi-traumatic has to happen to bring about change, even if that means taking the first punch.

And that assumes you can get up off the mat, and aren’t down for good. So JSDF ought to do what it did in Australia, but do it up in Japan. Things are that urgent.

Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He is the author of the book When China Attacks: A Warning To America.

This article was originally published by JAPAN Forward and is republished with permission.

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The United States Air Force (USAF) has just tested an advanced autonomous drone showcasing new cutting-edge technologies, an artificial intelligence-powered flex of how the US may fight an air war with China over Taiwan.

On July 25, the XQ-58A Valkyrie drone successfully carried out aerial combat tasks autonomously using new AI-driven software, the Warzone reported.

The test, launched from Eglin Air Base in Florida, lasted three hours and was part of a tiered approach of training algorithms millions of times in simulations before conducting other testing.

The drone drill reflected the USAF’s phased approach to develop, mature and build trust in AI-driven autonomous capabilities and to migrate them from the laboratory into more operational environments.

The USAF Research Laboratory developed the algorithms used for the test, which The Warzone noted is part of the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program, a critical component of the so-called Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) modernization initiative.

The artificial intelligence/machine learning test reportedly established a multi-layer safety framework, solving a tactically relevant challenge during airborne operations, The Warzone reported.

While the USAF has not provided details about the specific tasks involved in the test, it did stress that there will be a human operator in the loop for employing highly advanced autonomous drones.

Asia Times noted in January 2022 that the emergence of loyal wingman drones such as the  XQ-58A Valkyrie reflects a requirement for mass-produced and expendable aircraft to be used in a potential conflict with China.

Expendable drones give a numbers advantage to their operators, acting as mass decoys, a swarming force or a force multiplier complementing crewed aircraft.

Loyal wingman drones can also extend the sensor ranges of stealthy crewed aircraft such as the NGAD, F-35 and F-22, operating in areas deemed too dangerous for the latter due to advanced air defenses or aerial threats.

They can also extend weapons ranges by designating targets with onboard target designators while the launching crewed aircraft stays out of range of enemy air defenses while remaining electronically silent.

The results of the 25 July tests could speed the development of drone swarms, which may prove decisive in a Taiwan conflict.

In February 2023, Asia Times reported about the US Department of Defense’s (DOD) low-profile Autonomous Multi-Domain Adaptive Swarms-of-Swarms (AMASS) project to develop autonomous drone swarms that can be launched from sea, air and land to overwhelm enemy air defenses.

AMASS aims to develop the capability to launch and command thousands of autonomous drones to destroy an enemy’s defenses and critical assets, including air defenses, artillery pieces, missile launchers, command and control posts and radar stations.

Drone swarms can flood enemy radar scopes with multiple targets, forcing the latter to waste limited missiles and ammunition, revealing their positions for crewed platforms, armed drones and loitering munitions to move in for the kill.

Machine learning and AI also allow drone swarms to look at targets from multiple angles, cross-check various targeting data streams and suggest the best point of attack.

Caitlin Lee and other writers noted in May 2023 for Aerospace America that AI will be a game changer for air combat since it reduces the risk to pilots’ lives and the cost of air superiority.

The writers argued that AI may eventually do everything that a human pilot can, noting that the US military is already experimenting with AI in dogfighting, the most challenging aspect of aerial combat.

Lee and the other writers cited the US Defense Advanced Research Project’s Agency (DARPA) Air Combat Evolution, which pitted a highly-experienced fighter pilot versus an AI-driven fighter in a series of simulated aerial contests.

They noted that the AI fighter scored cannon kills against the human pilot every time since it could aim its cannon with superhuman accuracy from seemingly impossible attack angles, outmatching the human pilot in a classical, close-range, turning dogfight.

However, Lee and the other writers note that while AI excels in black-and-white situations, air combat in the real world will present many grey areas requiring human judgment for the foreseeable future.

They argue that no matter how fast AI advances, human judgment will always be needed in making high-risk decisions in dynamic air combat situations.

A human-AI combination may be the ideal solution, as it combines human flexibility and moral judgment with the precision and reliability of automation.

Operator-in-the-loop systems architecture is still needed to avoid unintended incidents and assuage moral concerns about AI deciding whether to use lethal force. It may also prevent autonomous drones from going against their operators through flawed logic, software glitches or enemy interference.

While the emergence of increasingly autonomous drones may herald a more significant shift toward the eventual “dronification” of warfare, humans will still be needed to devise crucial concepts, strategy and tactics.

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On July 18, an assassination in the southwestern Syrian province of Daraa claimed the life of a member of the armed forces. Unlike the politically motivated incidents that plague the region, this attack stands out because the victim was primarily known for his involvement in the trafficking and distribution of narcotics.

Two similar attacks last month suggest that the killing wasn’t an isolated event. Indeed, there has been a surge in drug-related assassinations since the beginning of the year, introducing a new dimension to the ongoing violence in the province.

Silence from the involved parties complicates matters, making it difficult to determine responsibility. Conversations with local sources reveal a growing determination within the community – rather than the government – to challenge the drug trade.

And yet these targeted killings alone won’t be sufficient to eradicate the drug-related activities that saturate Syria’s south.

Daraa has seen a staggering 22 assassination attempts since the start of the year, according to local media reports. The first killing was in February, followed by two similar shootings in March. April marked a dark turn, with nine targeted attacks. Except for the recent strikes, the distribution of the remaining killings is unclear. 

The attacks vary in method, ranging from targeting dealers on the move to forcefully entering residences and shooting at close range.

The assassinations haven’t only targeted civilians involved in the drug trade but also pro-government militia members engaged in illicit activities.

In interviews, local sources told me that targets have included fighters affiliated with various state military bodies and security agencies, including military, air, and state intelligence, and the Fourth Armored Division, which is led by Maher al-Assad, the president’s brother.

Fayez al-Radi, a militia commander associated with military intelligence and actively involved in drug trafficking, is among the most prominent figures to have been killed.

In at least one incident, a drug-related facility linked to Iran-backed militias was hit. Reportedly used for manufacturing and coordinating drug smuggling operations to Jordan and the Arab Gulf region, the site near Zizon village was struck by three RPG shells this year.

Local sources link these assassinations to growing public frustration with the drug trade. Residents are increasingly concerned about the safety of their families, fearing the high level of criminal activities and violence driven by addiction. Stories of easily accessible drugs, on the streets and even in schools, are frequently cited.

Inaction by Assad regime

Public anger is further fueled by the lack of official efforts to end the illicit activity. Despite many promises, the government hasn’t taken significant action to curb the spread of drugs, and prominent drug networks even enjoy protection from the state’s security and military bodies.

This cooperation, driven by financial and political motivation, remains intact despite neighboring Arab states making a crackdown on the drug trade a key condition of recent efforts to restore relations with President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

At the height of the civil war, Syria became the world’s biggest producer of the amphetamine Captagon, bringing in billions of dollars in revenue. The pills flooded into Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and these states now want to see the flow of drugs snuffed out at source.

Daraa province, with its long border with Jordan, is a hotbed for Captagon production and smuggling.

Local Syrian power brokers, criticized for not doing enough to stop drug dealers from plying their wares, began acting this spring. Notably, the Eighth Brigade, composed primarily of former opposition fighters now operating under the government’s umbrella, launched an anti-drug campaign in Daraa’s eastern region in March.

But the crackdown quickly lost momentum. Some speculate pressure from the government forced the Eighth Brigade to holster its weapons. Others, citing the lack of action against prominent drug dealers like Imad Zuraiq, a militia leader affiliated with military intelligence, viewed the campaign as a poorly disguised pretext to settle scores with leaders or militia groups.

The authorities’ apparent tolerance of the drug trade has prompted locals to take matters into their own hands. Many in Daraa have access to arms and the skills to use them, especially those who were involved in military activities in the past. 

Yet while the theory of locals taking the initiative makes sense for some of the killings, it doesn’t explain all of them.

Rival drug dealers, particularly those who previously clashed over influence or territory, might be involved. Former opposition armed groups currently affiliated with the government could also be behind the killings. Hit-and-run operations, rather than direct confrontation, would be one way to address local concerns without alienating the regime.

Finally, the involvement of Islamic State (ISIS) and, to a lesser extent, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham affiliates, cannot be ruled out.

The power and profit afforded by Daraa’s drug trade have made dealers seemingly impervious to danger. Armed and confident, they continue their illicit trade, unfazed by the risks involved.

While the recent assassinations may look like extrajudicial attempts to eradicate a societal scourge, the reality is more complicated and only adds another layer of instability in an already violent region.

Follow this writer on Twitter @HaidHaid22.

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