Pakistan election: Final results give Khan-backed candidates lead

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demonstrators supporting Imran Khan
By Lipika Pelham
BBC News

The final results in Pakistan’s general election have put independent candidates backed by jailed ex-PM Imran Khan’s PTI party in the lead.

Independents won 101 of the National Assembly seats. BBC analysis shows 93 of them went to PTI-backed candidates.

That puts them ahead of ex-PM Nawaz Sharif’s PMLN who won 75 and it is unclear who will form a government.

As wrangling continues, independent candidates who did not win have flooded courts with vote-rigging allegations.

Both the PTI, which was blocked from taking part in the election, and Mr Sharif’s PMLN say they want to form the next government.

The result was a surprise as most observers had expected Mr Sharif’s party – widely seen as having the powerful military’s backing – to win given Mr Khan had been jailed on charges ranging from corruption to having married illegally and his party was barred from the ballot sheet.

To govern, a candidate has to show they are at the head of a coalition with a simple majority of 169 seats in the National Assembly.

Bilawal Bhutto from the PPP, which received the third largest number of votes, has said that they have not had any formal discussions with Imran Khan’s PTI or Nawaz Sharif’s PMLN. But the PMLN have said that Mr Bhutto’s father did meet for an informal meeting with Mr Sharif’s brother in Lahore.

The Karachi-based MQM party has also made a surprising return in the polls, winning 17 seats, and could play a role in any coalition.

Of the National Assembly’s 366 seats, 266 are decided by direct voting and 70 are reserved – 60 for women and 10 for non-Muslims – and these are allocated according to the strength of each party in the assembly.

Under Pakistan’s rules, independent candidates are not eligible to be allocated reserved seats in parliament.

On Sunday police blocked streets near the electoral commission building in the city of Rawalpindi in anticipation of protests, while police in Islamabad said action would be taken against demonstrators.

police blocked roads in Rawalpindi on Sunday

The PTI’s chairman had called for peaceful protests outside electoral commission offices where they were concerned about “forged” results.

On Saturday, Mr Sharif – who is thought to be favoured by the military – called for other parties to help him form a unity government.

Experts have warned Pakistan may be facing a “prolonged period of political instability”.

Dr Farzana Shaikh from the Chatham House think tank told the BBC that the Khan-linked independents were unlikely to be allowed to form a government and many people feared a “weak and unstable coalition” would result from any tie-up between Mr Sharif and the PPP.

Meanwhile at least six PTI-backed candidates who did not win their seats, have lodged legal challenges in the courts to try to get them overturned.

Among them is Yasmin Rashid who stood against Mr Sharif in Lahore. The petitioners allege collusion in the alteration of election results on specific forms.

Pakistani officials have denied any irregularities.

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Move Forward urged to tell demonstrators to stop offending royalty

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PUBLISHED : 11 Feb 2024 at 16:03

Move Forward urged to tell demonstrators to stop offending royalty
Police try to separate men righting during a clash between a group of royalists and the Thalu Wang group in Pathumwan district on Saturday. (Screenshot)

The opposition-core Move Forward Party (MFP) has been urged to advise demonstrators to stop offending the royal institution while its party leader said he understood the protesters’ intention.

Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana, deputy leader of the coalition United Thai Nation Party, said on Sunday that MFP leader Chaithawat Tulathon and MFP chief advisor and former leader Pita Limjaroenrat should tell demonstrators from the Thalu Wang (“breaking into the palace”) group that the royal institution was not a conflicting party and was not involved in politics.

Offences against the royal institution are serious criminal activities and should not be viewed as political cases that deserve amnesty, Mr Thanakorn said.

He referred to the incident in which Tantawan Tuatulanon and a colleague from the Thalu Wang group honked their car horn at the motorcade of Her Royal Highness Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn as she was travelling on an expressway in Bangkok on Feb 4.

Mr Thanakorn noted that Mr Pita was previously a bail guarantor for Ms Tantawan.

“Mr Pita and Mr Chaithawat should warn the group to stop offending the royal institution and make it understand that it is better to express political standpoints constructively and legally,” Mr Thanakorn said.

He said that ordinary people disapproved of the group’s honking stunt and opinion survey on royal motorcades. Mr Thanakorn said he understood the reaction from a royalists’ group against Thalu Wang demonstrators in Pathumwan district on Saturday.

On Sunday Jurin Laksanawisit, former leader of the Democrat Party, said that the honking incident underlined the necessity to exclude lese majeste activities from any amnesty bill.

Amnesty in lese majeste, corruption and severe criminal cases would encourage such violations of the law, he said.

Late Saturday night MFP leader Chaithawat wrote on Facebook that he understood the intention of the Thalu Wang group and any form of expression of opinions would please some but not others. 

He said he strongly disagreed with the violent reaction from the Thai People Protecting the Monarchy group in Pathumwan on Saturday.

Mr Chaithawat also wrote that amnesty was one of several possible solutions to resolve political conflicts.

MFP MP Wiroj Lakkhanaadisorn wrote on X that the group’s violent reaction would affect the royal institution and authorities should stop the group from using the monarchy as a tool to attack other people.

MFP leader Chaithawat Tulathon, right, and his predecessor Pita Limjaroenrat attend a press conference at parliament on Jan 31. (Photo: Nutthawat Wichieanbut)

Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana, deputy leader of the United Thai Nation Party. (Photo: Pornprom Satrabhaya)

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Pakistan’s Khan-backed independents lead in final poll count

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ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s national election vote count concluded on Sunday (Feb 11) with independents, mostly backed by jailed former prime minister Imran Khan, winning 101 of the 264 seats, the election commission’s website showed. The final tally was released more than 60 hours after voting concluded in Thursday’s national elections, aContinue Reading

Woman arrested over B300m forex trading scam

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PUBLISHED : 11 Feb 2024 at 14:24

Woman arrested over B300m forex trading scam
Police read charges of fraud and public cheating to a woman accused of swindling 250 people out of around 300 million baht in a forex trading scam on Sunday. (Photo: Central Investigation Bureau).

SONGKHLA: A woman has been arrested for allegedly swindling 300 million baht from investors through a forex trading scam.

Economic Crime Suppression Division (ECD) police on Sunday apprehended a 51-year-old woman, whose name was withheld, in Songkhla’s Sadao district on a warrant issued by the Bangkok South Criminal Court in March 2021, ending an almost three-year run.

The suspect was allegedly part of a four-member gang that lured 250 people into participating in what they believed to be foreign currency trading, with promises of high returns.

Pol Maj Gen Putthidej Boonkrapheu, the ECD chief, said the 250 victims had filed complaints with the DSI, after transferring amounts ranging from 20,000 baht to 6 million baht to the gang’s company. The gang claimed the money would be invested in two leading forex brokers, IronFX and FXPrimus.

The investors received returns during the first three months before the gang started to give excuses for late payments, then closed their company and finally vanished.  

The three accomplices were a Thai woman and two Malaysian men, the ECD chief said. The woman, identified only as Kanokratch, has been arrested, but the Malaysians have since fled the country. They face charges of fraud and obtaining loans amounting to public cheating and fraud. 

The 51-year-old woman arrested on Sunday denied the charges, Pol Maj Gen Putthidej said.

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Thai-Cambodian reset a symptom of a wider problem – Asia Times

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On February 2, three political activists, including Lim Sokha, a senior member of the Candlelight Party, the once fledgling opposition party that was banned from participation in Cambodia’s sham July 2023 elections, were arrested in Thailand after seeking asylum and being granted refugee status.

Fears were that the three outspoken activists, who planned to hold a protest during Hun Manet’s visit to Thailand on February 7, were rounded up because the two governments were working in concert to prevent “interference in Cambodian internal politics” on Thai soil. 

After being arrested, Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin assured his Cambodian counterpart, Hun Manet, that it is Thailand’s policy not to allow anyone to use Thai soil “as a platform to interfere in internal affairs or conduct harmful activities against our neighboring countries.”

While the three were eventually processed by the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and allowed to depart to another country, recent cooperation between Thailand, partially billed now as a “semi-democratic” state, and the repressive one-party Cambodian autocracy signals a broader move in the wrong direction – and it’s not Thailand that started it. Others have made the same critical mistakes. 

While there are the usual nationalist flare-ups in tensions among populations, recently demonstrated in the Southeast Asia Games, where the Cambodia Boxing Federation renamed the kickboxing event “Kun Khmer” as opposed to “Muay Thai,” which provoked a stern reaction among Thais, where Muay Thai has recently been tagged as a form of Thai soft power.

And in the past, tensions over the Preah Vihear temple, a UNESCO heritage site, stirred tensions to the point of border skirmishes in 2011.

Instead, the danger lies in a much wider global pragmatic turn, where relations are justified under the guise of a strategic reset under Hun Manet.

Thailand wasn’t the country to host the newly minted Khmer leader, as French President Emmanuel Macron greeted Hun Manet in Paris, pledging US$235 million in development agreements from energy to water infrastructure and voicing support for a strategic partnership.

That was enough for government-controlled or -aligned media to herald the trip as an upgrade to relations to the level of “equal partners.” The move in essence handed Cambodia more undeserved legitimacy than a deeply flawed election ever could. 

As many have noted, the chance for a foreign-policy reset under Hun Manet has been too good to pass up, where Macron’s visit was an opportunity to reframe French-Cambodia ties, which are stained by its colonial past.

Even the United States, who once criticized Cambodia’s election as having a “pattern of threats and harassment” leading to a neither free nor fair declaration, reversed its withholding of $18 million in foreign aid after a sideline meeting between Hun Manet and Victoria Nuland, the acting US deputy secretary of state, during the United Nations General Assembly in September, but without saying specifically why. 

The reality is that very few countries can repair their relationships with Cambodia without compromising normative positions on human rights and democratization.

Japan, one of the few exceptions, has maintained a consistent position on Cambodia largely on the strength of its diplomatic track record dating back to the 1991 Paris Agreements, the 1992 UNTAC peacekeeping mission, and the volume of its official development assistance, which has reached nearly $3 billion since the early 1990s.

In short, Japan never looked for a reset, but has been playing a long game and serving as a reliable alternative to Chinese dependence. 

The European Union on the other hand, which is in the process of negotiating a free-trade agreement with Thailand, has compromised its normative position because of a desire for closer ties with Southeast Asia – the same error made by Macron with Hun Manet. 

Worse, the message that Western countries are sending by prioritizing Indo-Pacific economic ties while abandoning normative positions is that it gives license to semi-democratic regimes like Thailand to continue a business-as-usual approach to relations with Cambodia.

Even during military rule under Prayut Chan-o-cha, Thai-Cambodian relations had markedly improved and both were working in lockstep, and under Srettha, little work has been done to investigate the August 2023 beating of Cambodian opposition activist Phorn Phanna in Rayong province by three men on Thai soil.

While it is a delicate balance between criticism and engagement, as many wish to prevent a recurrence of the past, which sent Cambodia firmly into the arms of China, there is scant evidence that backing sharply away from human rights and democratization will have much effect on diplomatic relations. 

It merely means that a Western-educated son of a dictator who ruled over Cambodia for three decades gains another much-needed upper hand – development and investment without the pesky pressures of the past. 

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An economy-focused election in Pakistan – Asia Times

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Pakistan’s political and economic landscape is no stranger to upheavals.

At present, former prime minister Imran Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), faces corruption charges during the 2024 Pakistan general elections.

Meanwhile, Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N) stirred controversy by sporting a Gucci cap, allegedly worth more than 100,000 rupees (US$360), amid the country’s economic struggles.

Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, chairman of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), also grapples with past allegations of misgovernance and money laundering from 2018.

Beyond the political theatrics, the 2024 election is overshadowed by pressing financial challenges. With year-on-year inflation at 28% in January 2024, escalating fuel prices, and anticipated hikes in electricity bills, economic concerns dominate the campaign’s final stretch.

PML-N pledges to boost annual exports, finalize a US$10 billion oil-refinery deal with Saudi Arabia, and continue projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Simultaneously, PPP aims to double per capita income and provide free electricity to underprivileged families.

A fragile economic landscape

Pakistan’s economic predicament stems from a convergence of factors, including the global upheaval triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic, disruptions in global supply chains, and geopolitical tensions, especially the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

This confluence has led to economic disarray marked by dwindling purchasing power, depleting foreign-exchange reserves, and escalating civil unrest.

Pakistan’s national headline inflation (y-o-y) before and after Covid-19. Source: The World Bank

The nation’s economic challenge is exacerbated by a significant decline in forex reserves. In early 2023, reserves hit a historic low of $3.19 billion, barely covering two weeks of imports and falling below the International Monetary Fund’s recommended three-month minimum.

Coupled with the daunting task of repaying a projected debt of $73 billion by 2025, including substantial portions owed to China and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan faces a precarious situation.

The dramatic devaluation of the Pakistani rupee further complicates matters. From hopes of becoming the world’s best-performing currency in October 2022 to hitting a record low in February 2023, the devaluation has far-reaching implications, impacting such essential imports as fuel, edible oil, and pulses.

Additionally, Pakistan’s gray-listing by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has significant economic implications, with estimated GDP losses since 2008 reaching $38 billion. While the country’s exclusion from the list in October 2022 provided some relief, it underscores the need for robust anti-money-laundering and counterterrorism financing reforms.

Unsettled external debt dynamics

Pakistan’s external debt dynamics are complex, reflecting historical ties with China and Saudi Arabia. The total external debt, representing 33% of GDP as of December 2022, is a mix of multilateral, Paris Club, private, and commercial loans, with Chinese financial institutions holding more than 30%.

The short-term nature and high interest rates associated with some of these loans present significant hurdles for Pakistan’s debt management.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, envisaged as transformative in 2015, has become a central factor in Pakistan’s economic crisis. The economic complexity of CPEC, coupled with China’s reluctance to restructure debt repayments, has strained negotiations with international financial institutions, including the IMF.

While experts emphasize the need for short-term financial assistance, the relationship between Pakistan and the IMF, marked by 22 bailouts in the past 60 years, adds challenges.

Post-election challenges

Despite a focus on the economy in the elections, distractions have emerged due to circumstances surrounding Imran Khan’s removal from power. Doubts about the election’s credibility, including concerns about media influence, law-enforcement assaults, and potential manipulation of results, raise the specter of heightened political unrest and economic instability.

Navigating Pakistan’s $340 billion economy within a volatile political landscape necessitates addressing the adverse impact of inflation on citizens, especially the vulnerable population enduring prolonged inflation and unemployment. The incoming government faces challenges such as implementing a new IMF program, reducing expenditures, and managing the deficit.

Aligning campaign promises with the reality of a sluggish economy requires urgent comprehensive planning, advocating for an expanded tax net and a departure from a consumption-based growth model. Significant investments in climate mitigation and adaptation strategies are crucial to combat the repercussions of climate change.

Ultimately, a holistic, whole-of-nation approach is imperative for Pakistan’s prolonged journey toward economic recovery and sustained growth. Decoupling economic governance from politics, implementing necessary reforms, and re-evaluating international partnerships are essential steps for Pakistan’s economic resurgence.

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Thailand’s population falls slightly

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PUBLISHED : 11 Feb 2024 at 12:33

Thailand's population falls slightly
Thailand’s population at end-2023 was 66,052,615, down 0.06% from the previous year, civil registration data show. (Photo: Pornprom Satrabhaya)

Thailand’s population fell slightly year-on-year in 2023, according to the Interior Ministry.

Ministry spokeswoman Traisuree Taisaranakul said Sunday civil registration data showed the official population of Thailand as of Dec 31, 2023 was 66,052,615, decreasing 0.06% – a drop of 37,860 people – compared to the end of 2022.    

Of the total population, 5.47 million lived in the city of Bangkok.

The 66,052,615 people comprised 65,061,190 with Thai nationality and a further 991,425 with non-Thai nationality. There were 32,224,008 males and 33,828,607 women.

The five provinces with the largest populations were:  

1. Bangkok – 5,471,588

2. Nakhon Ratchasima – 2,625,794  

3. Ubon Ratchathani – 1,869,608

4. Chiang Mai – 1,797,074  

5. Khon Kaen – 1,779,373

Besides Bangkok, the nation has 20 provinces with a population of greater than 1 million. Samut Songkram has the smallest population, totaling 187,993 people, Ms Traisuree said.

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Philippine landslide death toll climbs to 35

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MANILA: The number of people killed by a landslide in the southern Philippines has risen to 35, an official said on Sunday (Feb 11), as rescue workers continued to dig through mud even as hope of finding more survivors dimmed. The landslide struck on Tuesday night outside a gold mineContinue Reading