Most MFP backers ‘oppose voting for Pheu Thai PM pick’

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Election-winning party says it will take its direction from the people who gave it 14 million votes

Most MFP backers ‘oppose voting for Pheu Thai PM pick’
Angry demonstrators approach the gate of the parliament complex after learning of the Constitutional Court’s order to suspend Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat from duty as an MP on July 19. (Photo: Pattarapong Chatpattarasill)

The majority of Move Forward Party (MFP) supporters do not approve of the party voting for the prime ministerial candidate of the Pheu Thai Party, according to some senior Move Forward members.

The party cited results of internal opinion polls conducted by MPs showing that at least 95% of supporters are against supporting Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidate in parliament.

Senior Pheu Thai figures, led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of party patriarch Thaksin Shinawatra, visited the MFP head office on Wednesday to seek support for its candidate, expected to be real estate billionaire Srettha Thavisin. Ms Paetongtarn and Chaikasem Nitisiri are the other two candidates.

Move Forward leaders gave no answer, saying they were awaiting more feedback from the people who gave the party more than 14 million votes in the May 14 general election.

On Thursday, MFP list-MP Wiroj Lakkhanaadisorn wrote on Facebook that the party must not vote in a way that opens the door to the legacy of dictatorship to re-enter government.

He was referring to the “uncles” parties: Palang Pracharath (PPRP) led by Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon and United Thai Nation (UTN), for which Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha formerly served as chief adviser.

The MFP insists that the two army generals, who had prominent roles in the 2014 coup and the National Council for Peace and Order that ran the country until 2019, maintain a firm grip on their respective parties.

Mr Wiroj’s remark came amid growing speculation that either or both parties could be invited to join the new Pheu Thai-led coalition.

Mr Wiroj said the very people Pheu Thai should reach out to were its red shirt supporters who have fought to defend Pheu Thai’s political cause for almost 20 years.

Pheu Thai has been accused of ignoring the wishes of many red shirts who wanted to see it and Move Forward, along with other parties in the so-called pro-democracy camp, form a government together.

Pheu Thai is now pressing ahead with the government formation effort with the Bhumjaithai and Chartthaipattana parties as well as six small parties agreeing to be part of the new coalition lineup.

The new coalition now commands 238 MP seats, which still falls 13 seats short of a simple majority in the 500-seat House of Representatives. Pheu Thai has said it will have at least 250 MP votes when the time comes to choose the new prime minister, which could come as soon as late next week.

Pheu Thai is expected to approach at least one more party from the previous government bloc to join. Those not invited so far are the PPRP, UTN and the Democrat Party. The latter has been in disarray for weeks, having made two failed attempts to choose a new leader.

Even with those three parties in the lineup, Mr Srettha would still need the support of some senators to win a prime ministerial vote.

Pheu Thai’s original plan was to persuade the MFP to back Mr Srettha. That way, the votes of senators would not be required to produce a majority at a combined House and Senate sitting.

Mr Wiroj said that as far as he was concerned, Move Forward would be neglecting its own supporters’ mandate if it voted for Pheu Thai’s candidate.

‘Pheu Thai does have a choice’

He added that Pheu Thai should not use an MFP refusal to back Mr Srettha as an excuse to turn to the “uncles” parties for support.

“Pheu Thai does have a choice. There’s always the eight-party alliance to fall back on,” he said, referring to previous coalition pact with Move Forward at its head.

However, that coalition collapsed because almost no senators would vote for Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat, saying his party’s plan to amend the sensitive lese-majeste law was a deal-breaker.

Many individual Move Forward MPs this week have been conducting yes/no mini-polls on social media about voting for a Pheu Thai candidate. The results are 90-95% opposed, but it cannot be verified whether these “votes” come from constituents, and whether people voted more than once.

Natthapol Towijakchaikul, an MFP MP for Chiang Mai, said he organised an online survey which found 95% disapproved of the party getting behind Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidate.

“We’re all ears to the voice of the people,” he said.

Some supporters, he added, were stressed about the country carrying on without a fully functioning government for months. However, they were prepared to wait further.

Move Forward earlier suggested the prime ministerial selection be put on hold until May next year when the current senators’ power to electing a prime minister will expire. Mr Pita could then be voted in as premier without an obstacle.

The next Senate will not have the power to vote for a PM, something that was outlined in “provisonal clause” inserted into the constitution by the Prayut government after the public approved the 2017 charter in a referendum.

Prasertpong Sornnuwat, another MFP MP, admitted party supporters in some constituencies were split over whether to support Mr Srettha for prime minister.

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Malaysia state polls: 9 percentage point fall in voter turnout could hurt Anwar’s unity coalition more, observers say

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One voter who tells CNA that he will not be casting his ballot for the upcoming polls is Farizul Izwani, who is registered to vote at the state constituency of Cempaka in Kelantan

Farizul, who is based in Selangor for work, says that travelling home might be cumbersome, and he feels that it is unlikely that his vote would matter in the bigger picture. 

“When I travelled back to vote in the general election, I had to endure a nine-hour traffic jam from KL to Kelantan,” says the 42-year-old. 

“PAS (Parti Islam Se-Malaysia) is also very strong in Kelantan. I don’t think my vote will be enough to sway support for PH-BN,” says Mr Farizul, who is a PH supporter. 

Mr Thomas Fann, chairman for non-governmental group – The Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections – which is better known as Bersih, predicts that the voter turnout is likely to be around 64 per cent based on the feedback he received. 

“State elections not held in conjunction with the General Election tend to have a lower voter turnout by around 10-15 per cent. For the upcoming state polls, the early signs are not good … We are a bit concerned,” says Mr Fann.

Bersih is a strong advocate for mass participation at the polls, and has launched a #VoteLocal campaign on Aug 1 to persuade voters to cast their ballots irregardless of which party they support.

Mr Fann cites how the PH candidate Michelle Ng for the Subang Jaya state seat in Selangor recently revealed that there has been a lower number of postal ballots issued for her constituency than expected. 

In the video posted on Instagram, Ms Ng says that only 398 postal ballots were issued by the Election Commission for the Subang Jaya state seat for the upcoming polls.

This is significantly lower from the projected 1,425 postal ballots issued for the area during GE15 for the Subang parliamentary seat. 

“If this is reflective of the voter turnout rate on Aug 12, we are headed for disaster. In order for PH to retain the state, we need at least a 65 per cent turnout. I hope this is a wake-up call,” she says in the video.

LOWER TURNOUT AMONG ETHNIC MINORITIES LIKELY TO ADVANTAGE PN 

On how this lower voter turnout could impact overall results, observers CNA spoke to outline that a large number of voters who will abstain from voting will likely be the ethnic minorities –  Chinese and Indians who are based out of state. 

They add that this will likely hurt the PH-BN alliance more, as the majority of ethnic minorities support the coalition. 

Bersih’s Mr Fann tells CNA: “Based on our interaction and observations with overseas voters and voters out of state, the profile of this group is typically those of Chinese ethnicity, who are registered to seats near the west coast of Peninsula Malaysia.” 

He adds that a lower voter turnout for these seats would probably handicap PH. 

“(With lower voter turnout), I think the seats in the West Coast would probably become a lot more competitive and may be decided by a few hundred votes,” says Mr Fann. 

Ilham Centre’s Mr Hisommudin also cites data from the Melaka and Johor state polls held in 2021 and 2022 respectively, as examples of how PH’s performance was adversely impacted by relatively lower turnout by the minority voters. 

Based on statistics provided by the Election Commission, the turnout for the Chinese and Indians in Melaka and Johor were 68 per cent and 43 per cent respectively.

This was lower than the figures for the General Election in November, which was 72 per cent and 68 per cent for the Chinese and Indians in Melaka and Johor respectively.

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Cheng Lei: Journalist held in China says she sees only 10 hours of sun a year

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Close up photo of Australian journalist Cheng Lei, who is imprisoned in China.Nick Coyle
By Stephen McDonell
China correspondent

An Australian journalist – held in detention in China for three years as of this weekend – has spoken publicly for the first time.

“I miss the sun. In my cell, the sunlight shines through the window, but I can stand in it for only 10 hours a year,” Cheng Lei said in an open letter to the people of Australia, dictated to diplomats who are able to speak to her each month.

“I can’t believe I used to avoid the sun when I was living back in Australia… It’ll probably rain the first two weeks I’m back in Melbourne,”

“I haven’t seen a tree in three years,” she said.

The finance reporter was working for China’s state media English-language television station CGTN when she was picked up, spending her first six months of detention in solitary confinement without charge.

In March last year, Ms Cheng was tried in secret and has been waiting for a year and four months to be sentenced.

Australia’s ambassador to China, Graham Fletcher, tried unsuccessfully to gain entry to the court to witness proceedings.

Even her family is not aware of what she is accused, other than that it is said to involve passing on “state secrets”.

In China, what constitutes a state secret is a very vague concept and can involve anything which the government deems to be sensitive.

The letter released today is filled with nostalgia of her life in Australia, the country her family immigrated to from Hunan Province when she was just 10 years old.

“In 1987, I remember camping for the first time with my family, my dad driving a $700 [£360] car,” she said.

“I relive every bushwalk, river, lake, beach with swims and picnics with psychedelic sunsets, sky that is lit up with stars, and the silent and secret symphony of the bush.”

In prison, the former TV anchor said that she “secretly mouth[s] the names of places I’ve visited and driven through” in Australia.

In what she describes as “a love letter to 25 million people”, Ms Cheng said she recalls the kindness of strangers and friends alike and that the memories of such kindness “have come back to me now and restored me” behind bars.

She said she misses sea salt, black humour, the Queensland tropics and the never-ending blue skies of Western Australia, as well as the sand between her toes.

There has been some speculation that the sentencing of Ms Cheng has been delayed so that her case can be used as a bargaining chip in the Chinese government’s dealings with its Australian counterpart.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been invited to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping. However, he is coming under considerable pressure at home not to make the trip until Ms Cheng and fellow Australian Yang Hengjun have been released.

The end of her letter contains probably the most important line: “Most of all, I miss my children.”

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Iraqi held for overstaying visa for 15 years

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Man found in Kanchanaburi guesthouse faces 10-year ban from re-entering country

PUBLISHED : 10 Aug 2023 at 16:05

Iraqi held for overstaying visa for 15 years
An immigration officer checks the passport of Oday Jabbar Khudhair at a guesthouse in Kanchanaburi on Wednesday. The officer found that the Iraqi man had overstayed his visa for almost 15 years. (Photo: Piyarat Chongcharoen)

KANCHANABURI: An Iraqi man has been arrested in this border province for overstaying his visa by almost 15 years.

Immigration police arrested Oday Jabbar Khudhair, 43, at a local guesthouse on Thursday, said Pol Col Korn Somkhanae, chief of the Kanchanaburi immigration office. He did not say what district the guesthouse was located in.

The arrest followed a complaint that a foreign national had been acting suspiciously and might have committed an immigration offence, authorities said. He had reportedly moved from another part of the country to stay in Kanchanaburi.

Pol Col Korn led immigration police officers to the guesthouse where they found Mr Khudhair. A check of his passport showed his visa had expired on Aug 21, 2008.

Mr Khudhair was charged with overstaying his visa by 5,468 days and detained for legal proceedings.

The fine for overstaying a visa is 500 baht per day but the maximum has been set at 20,000 baht.

For more serious cases, an overstayer will be deported and banned from re-entering Thailand for a certain period. Those overstaying for more than 5 years will be banned from entering the country for 10 years.

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Why China rarely escalates US provocations

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In recent years, there has been a prevalent discourse which suggests that nationalism has emerged as a key driving force behind China’s foreign policy, particularly in international incidents and crises. 

But China’s actions on the global stage exhibit a range of responses to nationalism in different incidents – at times embracing it and at other times adopting a more detached approach.

Policymakers, academics and the general public lack a clear understanding of the role Chinese nationalism truly plays. Why and under what condition would the Chinese government choose to escalate as nationalists require in some state-to-state international incidents, but not in others?

When the Chinese government responds to international incidents, its primary concern lies in garnering public support while safeguarding national interests. Policy formulation is significantly influenced by legitimacy concerns, of which economic development and nationalism hold paramount importance.

When decision-makers perceive nationalist sentiments are likely to bring political and social instability, external escalation measures will be taken to safeguard China’s interests and pacify domestic discontent.

For instance, during the Kosovo War in 1999, NATO bombed the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia, resulting in the loss of three lives and injuring 27 individuals. 

In September 2012, despite repeated warnings from China’s leadership, the Japanese government “nationalized” the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. In August 2022, US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan despite China’s strong opposition. 

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi leads a delegation to meet with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei on August 3, 2022. Photo: Taiwan Presidential Office

All three incidents damaged China’s national dignity and sovereignty and brought overwhelming nationalist sentiments to the fore — which prompted China to swiftly respond with robust escalating countermeasures.

These incidents caught global attention. But China did not escalate in many other cases. Of course, reacting without escalation does not mean “doing nothing” externally, as appropriate countermeasures targeting the other country in international incidents are expected.

China’s priority in developing its economy explains its rationality and restraint in handling many contentious incidents. After the 1978 reforms, economic development has been the government’s central task. When diplomatic relations hold significant economic value, China strives to handle incidents smoothly to foster active cooperation.

During the 2001 Hainan airplane collision incident, China did not escalate and resumed active dialogue with the United States once its demands were met. In the 2023 “balloon incident”, China again did not escalate against the United States, despite its strong opposition to the US military’s strike.

Even if a diplomatic relationship holds low economic value, escalation is not China’s first choice. Empirical evidence demonstrates that the government will assess whether the incident harms China’s core interests. 

If not, it will usually not excessively cater to nationalism. This is because such actions may lead to unnecessary disputes and negatively impact diplomatic relations.

Even if China’s core interests are harmed, reaching an agreement to resolve an issue becomes crucial. During the 2016 South China Sea arbitration case, China initially imposed diplomatic, military and economic sanctions on the Philippines. 

But China’s policies began to moderate after the new Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte visited China. During Duterte’s visit, China and the Philippines reached extensive and in-depth cooperation agreements under the consensus of shelving the arbitration, resulting in a significant turnaround in China-Philippines relations.

Canada and the United States’ arrest of Huawei’s Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou in December 2018 was a critical case. During this incident, the Chinese public “rallied around the flag,” leading to increased public support for the government.

China’s relatively restrained response to the United States can be attributed to the substantial economic value of the Chinese-US relationship.

The value of the Chinese–Canadian relationship was not as significant. Meng’s arrest was viewed as part of the West’s technological war against China, posing a threat to China’s core interests. When China and Canada failed to reach an agreement regarding Meng’s release, China took significant diplomatic and economic measures to escalate the situation. 

These actions exerted immense pressure on the Canadian government and eventually contributed to the agreement to release Meng and the detained “two Michaels.” This brought an end to this international incident, which lasted for more than 1,000 days.

Chinese nationalism is burning bright in a new age of geopolitical rivalry. Image: Twitter

Contrary to assertions that suggest China blindly caters to nationalism, the reality is far more complex. Unless an international incident threatens political and social stability, China rarely resorts to escalation measures that cater to nationalism. 

This is because China emphasizes the economic value of diplomatic relations and, when non-core interests are harmed, China usually refrains from escalating. China also seeks to resolve disputes by achieving agreements it supported.

The Chinese government responds to nationalism with pragmatic actions rather than widely perceived instrumentalist policies – and it is often misleading to exaggerate the role of nationalism in China’s foreign policymaking.

Chenchao Lian is a PhD Candidate in International Relations at the University of Oxford. This article is based on his published research.

This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.

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Philippines: Six officers suspended after shooting teen in Manila

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Jerhode Baltazar victim of mistaken identity shooting in PhilippinesHandout
By Joel Guinto
BBC News

Six policemen in the Philippine capital are facing criminal investigation over the fatal shooting of a teenager whom they had mistaken for a murder suspect.

Jerhode Baltazar drowned at a fishing village in suburban Manila after being shot in the head last Wednesday.

He dove into the water in a panic as police attempted to arrest him.

It was a “lapse in judgment” for the policemen to shoot him, given the 17-year-old was unarmed, conceded authorities.

“They cannot invoke self-defence. They were unable to prove that the victim resisted arrest,” Navotas city police chief Col Allan Umipig told local television.

It was not immediately clear what led police to believe the teenager was the person they were after. They had been tasked to arrest a suspect in a separate shooting, which also took place in Navotas.

The six officers have been removed from their posts and detained while authorities investigate whether they could be charged with homicide, which is punishable by a maximum of 20 years in prison under Philippine law.

The shooting has been covered prominently by local news outlets.

In videos posted on social media, the victim’s father, Jesse Baltazar, was shown clutching his son’s body after it was fished out of the water.

Mr Balazar questioned why his son was shot in the head when the policemen had claimed they fired only warning shots.

The victim’s mother, who works in Qatar, viewed her son’s coffin through a video call. She told local TV she never imagined her next remittance would be for her son’s burial.

The victim’s sister, Jeraldine Tolentino, also told local media that she refused a 50,000-peso ($1,000; £698) bribe to discourage the family from pursuing the case.

Law enforcers in the Philippines have in recent years parried allegations of extrajudicial killings of crime suspects, particularly those involved in illegal drugs. They have denied wrongdoing.

Alleged summary executions of suspects who purportedly resisted arrest increased during the reign of former President Rodrigo Duterte, whose term ended in mid-2022. He is facing an investigation by the International Criminal Court, which he has refused to recognise. Mr Duterte is currently living in retirement in Davao City.

Critics say his hardline stance against crime has fostered an atmosphere for police misconduct. He however has defended his signature campaign as necessary for keeping Filipinos safe from street crimes.

Duterte’s successor, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, has dialled down his anti-narcotics campaign. However, state actors have been accused of involvement in high profile killings, such as that of journalist Percival Mabasa in November 2022.

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Taliban repression of women a crime against humanity, says Gordon Brown

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Gordon BrownGetty Images
By Andre Rhoden-Paul
BBC News

The Taliban’s treatment of women and girls in Afghanistan is a “crime against humanity”, Gordon Brown has told the BBC.

The former prime minister is calling on the International Criminal Court (ICC) to prosecute those responsible for the “vicious” abuse of human rights.

The Taliban government has severely restricted the freedoms of women and girls since regaining power in 2021.

“This is the systematic brutalisation of women and girls,” he said.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4 Today’s Nick Robinson, Mr Brown, now the UN’s special envoy for global education, said: “They’ve been excluded from education, excluded from employment, excluded from visiting public places.

“All these bans are a form of discrimination. It’s probably the most heinous, most vicious, most comprehensive abuse of human rights in place around the world today.”

He described the system as a form “gender apartheid” that should be considered a crime against humanity.

“It’s right then for the International Criminal Court, which has responsibility for dealing with crimes against humanity, to both investigate and prosecute those responsible.”

The ex-Labour prime minister, who led the UK from 2007 to 2010, suggested the pressure of a potential prosecution could force the Taliban to reconsider, and said he was shocked by there was “so little international pressure on the regime”.

Mr Brown also called for UK sanctions against the Taliban leadership, and leaders and clerics from Muslim-majority countries to help persuade them that “Islam is a religion that values women and girls”.

Women wearing burqas in the Badakhshan province

Getty Images

The former prime minister’s intervention comes as the two-year anniversary approaches of the fall of the democratic government and Taliban takeover following the withdrawal of Western troops.

Taliban leaders promised a more moderate rule than during their previous period in power from 1996 to 2001.

Last month Afghan women held a rare protest against the Taliban’s decision to shut female beauty parlours and salons.

Girls have been banned from attending secondary school and women excluded from university.

Women and girls are also prohibited from entering amusement parks, gyms and working in non-governmental organisations, and must adhere to a strict dress code.

The UN has previously said women reported feeling “invisible, isolated, suffocated, living in prison-like conditions”, with many unable to meet and their basic needs without employment or aid.

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