‘Gods are angry’ at human behavior in the Himalayas

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The famous pilgrimage site of Kedarnath, located in the central Himalayas of India, is believed to be a sacred land. It has been referred to as “deva bhumi,” or the “land of the gods,” for centuries.

Millions of people visit this region each year in search of divine blessings and other religious benefits as part of what is known as the Char Dham Yatra, or the pilgrimage to four sacred mountainous abodes devoted to different gods and goddesses. Situated at the base of 20,000-foot snowy peaks, Kedarnath is one of these four major destinations.

The mighty Hindu god Shiva is believed to have manifested in the middle of a meadow in Kedarnath as a conical rock formation that has long been worshiped as a lingam, an embodied form of the deity. A stone temple has stood over the lingam for at least a thousand years, at an altitude of about 12,000 feet.

I visited this area in 2000, 2014 and 2019 as part of research I’ve been conducting for decades on religion, nature and ecology; I have spent numerous summers in the Himalayas.

Many in the vast crowds of people on the Char Dham Yatra told me that they believe it is important to undertake this pilgrimage at least once in their lifetime, often identifying it as the most significant journey they will ever perform.

But climate change now threatens the sacred sites of this region. As global temperatures rise, glaciers on the 20,000-foot peaks above Kedarnath that are key sources of the Mandakini River, a major tributary of the Ganges, are melting and retreating at alarming rates.

In turn, as I argue in my book, “Understanding Climate Change through Religious Lifeworlds,” climate change disasters are acting as powerful drivers of religious transformations, reshaping religious ideas and practices.

Threats to the Himalayan region

Glacial deterioration is happening worldwide, but subtropical glaciers in high mountainous areas such as the Indian Himalayas are more vulnerable because of their low latitudes. Many climate scientists believe that climate change is affecting the Himalayas more than almost any other region of the world.

Melting glaciers leave massive amounts of water in lakes held in place by unstable natural dams formed of rubble heaped up when the glaciers were healthy and pushing down a slope.

The expanding lakes left behind by shrinking glaciers are increasingly prone to glacial lake outburst floods. Another serious danger threatening high mountainous areas as a result of global warming is the shift from snow to extreme rain at increasingly higher altitudes.

Snow clings to hillsides and melts gradually, while rain rushes down slopes immediately, causing destructive erosion, landslides and deluges. The combination of extreme rain and glacial lake outburst floods can lead to deadly flooding, as demonstrated by a catastrophe in Kedarnath in 2013.

Kedarnath disaster

Himalayan researchers determined that in June 2013, more than a foot of rain fell within 24 hours near Kedarnath at elevations never previously recorded. The entire watershed above Kedarnath was filled with raging water. Additionally, the Mandakini River burst out of its banks, causing landslides and devastating flooding.

An aerial view showing buildings and erosion as a result of flooding in a town, located in a valley.
The Kedarnath Temple pictured amid flood destruction on June 18, 2013. Photo: /AFP via Getty Images / Stredel / The Conversation

To make matters worse, the rubble dam that had held back the glacial lake formed by the melting Chorabari Glacier above Kedarnath suddenly breached, releasing a high wall of crashing water.

In a matter of 15 minutes, the entire content of the lake was emptied, cresting over three-story buildings with a pounding flow that University of Calcutta scientists estimated was half the volume of Niagara Falls.

Fortunately – or, according to pilgrims, miraculously – a 30-foot oblong boulder rolled down the mountain and stopped just before the ancient temple, parting the powerful waters and protecting the temple so that it remained standing without major damage. Every other building in the town of Kedarnath was demolished.

Government figures claim over 6,000 people died, but those involved in the rescue operations set the figure much higher. Most of the dead were pilgrims.

‘The gods are angry’

The destructive flooding is changing people’s beliefs. The gods of this region are closely associated with the land itself; and these gods, nature and humans are intimately connected. People living in this region understand the dramatic changes taking place here in terms of this triad.

A resident of Gangotri explained, “The gods are angry with us because of how we are now acting.” When I said to him that I thought this area is where people have been coming for a long time to receive the blessing from the gods, he responded, “Yes, but now they are angry with us. That is why this (Kedarnath disaster) has happened. And more will come if we do not change our ways.”

I found this to be a common view – weather-related disasters were being understood as a result of the immoral actions of human beings, particularly the disregard for the environment.

One significant theological change that appeared to be underway within Himalayan Hinduism as a result of climate change was the transformation of the primary conception of the gods from those who bless to those who punish.

“There is so much sin in the world today,” a resident of Uttarkashi told me. “People are making a lot of pollution. Because of this, the climate is changing and the gods are beginning to punish us.”

In some ways there is nothing new in the assertion that human morality and the environment are intimately linked, but the degree of change that is now happening has introduced a new level of concern.

Wandering holy men in this region are witnessing firsthand the dramatic changes in the Himalayas during their years of travel. One holy man living in this area explained, “The gods are nature. When we disrespect nature, we disrespect the gods. They are now angry because of what we are doing to nature. This is why the destructive storms are increasing.”

Conditional hope

All is not lost, however, and there remains some hope for a better outcome. There is a sense that things can still be turned around and the worst avoided if humans are willing to change their ways. Specifically, many articulated this as a return to a more respectful relationship with the gods of the land.

When asked how to please the gods and turn things around, a man in Kedarnath put it simply: “To once again respect the land and nature.” There is no great difference between treating the gods with respect and nature well.

A woman I spoke to in Uttarkashi elaborated on this: “The gods and the land are the same. And we are mistreating both. The floods are like a warning slap to a child. They are a wake-up call telling us to change our ways. … If not, we will be finished.”

Human behavior remains a major factor in the holistic worldview that connects humans, gods and environment, and a return to respectful relationships is the key to a sustainable future.

Many Himalayan residents say that humans have the choice to return to a more mutually beneficial relationship with the natural world, but if the gods’ stormy warnings are not heeded, then massive destruction and a gruesome end is near.

Uncertain future

Destructive floods continue to happen in the central Himalayas with increasing force and frequency. Since the 2013 disaster at Kedarnath, more than 800 people have been killed in flash floods in the Char Dham region.

The Kedarnath pilgrimage was suspended in 2022 because of deadly landslides and flooding, but the Indian government has also heavily promoted religious tourism in this area.

The year 2022 saw a record number of pilgrims visiting Kedarnath and the three other Char Dham sites in the central Himalayas, which only puts more stress on the land, with additional buildings, crowded roads and polluting vehicles.

With vehicles, factories and other human activities continuing to pump excessive amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, warming the planet, experts fear disasters like Kedarnath saw in 2013 will become only more common.

David L Haberman is Professor Emeritus, Religious Studies, Indiana University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Civic groups press for relocation of bizarre statue

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Giant Khru Kai Kaeo image installed at hotel makes many people fearful, critics say

PUBLISHED : 17 Aug 2023 at 18:56

Civic groups press for relocation of bizarre statue
Offerings are left for the deity Khru Kai Kaeo in the compound of The Bazaar Hotel Bangkok, near the Ratchada-Lat Phrao intersection in Bangkok. (Photo: Nutthawat Wichieanbut)

Two civic groups have stepped up calls for the relocation of Khru Kai Kaeo, a deity represented by a gargoyle-like sculpture, from a shrine in the compound of a hotel near the Ratchada-Lat Phrao intersection in Bangkok.

The Artists Council for the Promotion of Buddhism of Thailand plan to submit a letter today to executives of The Bazaar Hotel Bangkok, saying the statue is causing fear among some people.

The giant statue has been the talk of the town since photos went viral online after it got stuck beneath an overpass while being transported to the hotel, which is popular with Chinese tourists and expatriates.

Installing the strange statue for people to worship or seek blessings went against Buddhist teachings, the artists’ group says.

The Rassadorn Thai Haeng Chart group, meanwhile, has submitted a letter to Bangkok governor Chadchart Sittipunt, asking him to order the relocation of the statue from the area near the Lat Phrao MRT station in Huai Khwang district.

People living in nearby communities were gripped with fear by the presence of the statue, the group said.

Others have flocked to the sculpture to ask for blessings, leaving behind items including flowers and wallets. Some worshipers have gone as far as soliciting kittens or puppies online to use for sacrifices, according to social media accounts that have been critical of the craze.

Spokesman Phonphakhun Setthayabodee said the group was shocked by reports that some people would consider using pets as sacrifices to the half-human, half mythical bird sculpture. Killing animals to worship a deity went against civilised culture, peace and order, he said.

On Wednesday, Watchdog Thailand (WDT) warned against using pets as sacrifices to Khru Kai Kaeo.

Traisuree Taisaranakul, a deputy government spokesperson, also joined the chorus of concern on Thursday.

“Concerning any trends on social media, people should consider the history and the beautiful Thai culture of not encroaching on other lives,” Ms Traisuree said in a statement. “If you believe in something, believe with mindfulness and do not become obsessed and fall prey to people with bad intentions.”

A relative of the sculptor who created the Khru Kai Kaeo statue has insisted that making animal sacrifices as a misinterpretation of the correct protocol.

The statue has a menacing appearance resembling a gargoyle from Notre-Dame Cathedral in Paris but is claimed to have originated in Cambodia.

According to some believers, Khru Kai Kaeo, also known as Khru Ba Kai Kaeo, was the revered teacher of Jayavarman VII, a former king of the Khmer Empire.

But Tongthong Chandransu, a history scholar, said he has never heard of this alleged teacher.

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Singaporean who died on Mt Kilimanjaro appeared well following return to campsite: Local tour operator

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SINGAPORE: The Singaporean man who died on Aug 9 from health complications due to altitude sickness after attempting to climb Mount Kilimanjaro had appeared to be well following his return to camp the day before, said a Tanzanian tour operator. Speaking to CNA on late on Wednesday (Aug 16), Mr Mathew Jacky Mollel,Continue Reading

Taiwan’s secret missile for striking deep in China

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Taiwan has just unveiled one of its secretive cruise missiles, part of a long-range arsenal that ensures conventional deterrence and counterstrike capabilities in the event of a Chinese invasion.

This month, The Warzone reported that Taiwan’s United News Daily (UDN) published photos showing an alleged nighttime launch of the Hsiung Feng IIE (HF-2E) from the Jiupeng military base in Pingtung County at the island’s southern end. The report notes that the HF-2E missile was understood to have flown for many hours. 

The Warzone notes that another Taiwanese media outlet, the semi-official Central News Agency (CNA), corroborated UDN’s report by citing an unnamed military source who said that the Taiwanese Air Force fired a classified missile on August 16 as part of an ongoing three-day live fire drill. 

The Warzone report further states that while it is unconfirmed that an HF-2E was launched from Jiupeng, the base is a known missile test facility and hub for Taiwan’s National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST), a top research institute understood to be responsible for the HF-2E’s development. 

Taiwan has previously tested the HF-2E cruise missile and other long-range weapons. In February 2023, Asia Times reported that the NCSIST successfully tested a possibly extended-range version of the HF-2E land-attack cruise missile from the same location. 

The missile reportedly demonstrated impressive capabilities by flying 300 kilometers from north to south and 180 kilometers from east to west at 30 kilometers. With a reported range of 1,200 kilometers, the HF-2E can effectively target China’s east coast and central regions, including Qingdao and Wuhan. However, the NCSIST did not provide details about the type of missile involved in the test.

According to Missile Threat, the HF-2E cruise missile program was initiated in 2001 to enable Taiwan to launch attacks on targets in mainland China that were previously out of reach. The source notes that, before the development of this missile, Taiwanese missiles had limited capabilities and were only able to hit coastal areas. 

It says that with the extended range of the HF-2E, the Taiwanese military can target critical People’s Liberation Army (PLA) installations such as radar, missile sites, airfields and surveillance and reconnaissance assets.

A simulated Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Taiwan may retaliate against a potential invasion with HF-2E missile strikes in China. Image: Facebook

Missile Threat also notes that the HF-2E missile shares many similarities with the US-made BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missile. The source says the missile underwent successful testing in June 2005 and again in October 2007, with an extended-range version tested in January 2008, demonstrating a range of 800 kilometers. 

Additionally, Missile Threat says the HF-2 extended-range variant completed its first production phase in 2018, with 100 missiles produced for US$440 million.

Missile Threat says that the HF-2E measures 6 meters in length and 0.5 meters in body diameter, with a launch weight of 980 kilograms. It says the missile carries a single warhead weighing approximately 200 kilograms and has a range of 600 kilometers.

However, a 2017 US National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) report cites a missile range of just 300 kilometers. 

Missile Threat notes that the missile’s propulsion system consists of a solid-fueled booster and a liquid-fueled turbojet engine. In addition, the source says its guidance system utilizes an inertial navigation system (INS), GPS and terrain-matching technology to improve accuracy to 15 meters Circular Error Probable (CEP). 

Given Taiwan’s vulnerability to naval blockades, the self-governing island has taken steps to build up its long-range missile arsenal indigenously. Taiwan would likely be blockaded if China attempted reunification by force, hindering the US and allies of resupplying the island with advanced munitions like cruise and anti-ship missiles.

In March 2022, Asia Times reported that NCSIST has plans to build 34 additional facilities to augment the production capacity of four specific missile types: the Tien Kung surface-to-air missile, the Tien Chien air-to-air missile, the Wan Chien air-launched cruise missile and the Hsiung Feng anti-ship missile. 

Taiwan’s objective through this initiative is to increase its annual missile production rate from 207 to 497 units, with the peak of production anticipated in 2023. The NCSIST has invested $249 million since 2018 to upgrade 80 missile-related facilities. 

Fifty of these facilities have already been completed, while the remaining facilities were set for completion by June 2022. However, Asia Times could not independently confirm if all the facilities were upgraded on schedule.

Those projects underscore Taiwan’s long-running efforts to develop long-range strike capabilities to shift the military balance in the Taiwan Strait in its favor and deter a potential Chinese invasion.

In December 2022, Asia Times reported on Taiwan’s long-range missile projects, which include the Yung Feng supersonic cruise missile, the HF-2E cruise missile and the Ba Dan ballistic missile.

Yung Feng’s development was initiated following the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis. Despite lacking a formal declaration of its entry into service, the missile was deemed operational in 2014. In August 2019, the first batch of 20 missiles and ten mobile launchers were introduced. 

The missile’s primary targets are located in northern and central China. Flight testing was executed without the involvement of external parties and was concealed within other missile development programs.

Despite a problematic development process that resulted in five failed flight tests and the program’s near cancelation in 2004, the HF-2E missile is available in two variations. 

The first variant has a range of 500 kilometers and can hit Shanghai, while the second has a 1,000-kilometer range and can reach Beijing. Taiwan is also preparing to produce improved HF-2E missiles with a 1,200-kilometer range.

Taiwan also had a secret project to develop the Ba Dan ballistic missile, which was successfully tested, but the US prevented and blocked the ballistic missile project’s further development.

Taiwan could move away from its defensive “porcupine strategy” and adopt an offensive “pit viper strategy” by developing projects like the HF-2E missile. The pit viper strategy would involve targeted missile strikes on critical Chinese cities such as Beijing and Shanghai in response to any conflict.

A Taiwanese AIDC F-CK-1 Ching-Kuo fighter with its armaments on display. Photo: Twitter

In response to these developments, China appears to have adjusted its Taiwan strategy. This month, Asia Times reported a significant increase in China’s military drills simulating a Taiwan blockade on the island’s eastern flank since then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit last August. 

Before Pelosi’s visit, Chinese ships and planes were primarily active in the Western Pacific, specifically in the Philippine Sea east of Taiwan. 

However, since that controversial visit, China has increasingly deployed its aircraft carriers and drones west of Taiwan, raising the possibility that Taiwan’s strategy of relying on its mountainous eastern flank as a redoubt against a Chinese invasion across the Taiwan Strait may be outdated. 

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Pakistan: More than 100 arrested after churches burned

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People gather at a church building vandalized by protesters in Jaranwala, Pakistan August 16, 2023Reuters
By Carrie Davies & Derek Cai
in Islamabad and Singapore

More than 100 people have been arrested in an east Pakistan city after thousands of Muslims burned churches and vandalised homes.

The violence in Jaranwala was sparked by claims that two Christian men had torn pages from the Quran.

The historic Salvation Army Church was still smouldering on Thursday, one day after the riot.

The ruins have been surrounded with barbed wire as the situation remains tense.

Public gatherings have also been restricted for seven days in Faisalabad district, which includes Jaranwala.

The two men accused of damaging the Quran, Islam’s holy book, have not been arrested though they have been charged with blasphemy, which is punishable by death in Pakistan.

Even though Pakistan has yet to sentence anyone to death for blasphemy, a mere accusation can result in widespread riots, causing lynchings and killings.

Two years ago, a Sri Lankan man accused of blasphemy was killed by an enraged mob and had his body set on fire. In 2009, a mob burned down about 60 homes and killed six people in the Gorja district in Punjab, after accusing them of insulting Islam.

Pakistan inherited the blasphemy law from the British in the 19th century. In the 1980s, Islamabad introduced stiffer penalties, including the death sentence for insulting Islam.

Around 96% of Pakistan’s population is Muslim. Other countries, including Iran, Brunei, and Mauritania also impose capital punishment for insulting religion.

Religion-fuelled violence in Pakistan has risen since the country made blasphemy punishable by death, as it “bolsters violent behaviour,” Iftekharul Bashar, a researcher at the think-tank RSIS who focuses on political and religious violence in South Asia, told the BBC.

“The Pakistani society has experienced increased fragmentation, driven by widening economic disparities, leading to an upsurge in violence directed towards minority religious groups,” Mr Bashar said.

“The emergence of extremist and vigilante factions within Pakistan, some of which exhibit significant financial backing, also contributed to this trouble trend,” he added.

A local official told BBC Urdu that authorities received calls about protests and fires early Wednesday morning after reports of the two men allegedly desecrating the Quran, the holy book of Islam, circulated on social media.

Authorities said torn pages of the the sacred text with blasphemous content allegedly scribbled on them in red marker ink, were found near a Christian community.

The reports circulated around the city and on social media, sparking outrage among the Muslim community. The violence that ensued saw mobs attacking and looting private homes belonging to Christians.

Police told the BBC that the Christian’s possessions were pulled into the streets and set on fire.

Yassir Bhatti, a 31-year-old Christian, was one of those to flee their homes.

“They broke the windows, doors and took out fridges, sofas, chairs and other household items to pile them up in front of the Church to be burnt,” he told AFP news agency.

“They also burnt and desecrated Bibles, they were ruthless.”

Videos on social media show protesters destroying Christian buildings while police appear to watch on.

Amir Mir, the information minister for Punjab province, condemned the alleged blasphemy and said in a statement that thousands of police had been sent to the area, with dozens of people detained.

The mob was mostly made up of people from an Islamist political party called Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), a government source told Reuters. The TLP has denied any involvement.

Caretaker PM Anwar ul-Haq Kakar called for swift action against those responsible for the violence.

Pakistani bishop Azad Marshall, in the neighbouring city of Lahore, said the Christian community was “deeply pained and distressed” by the events.

“We cry out for justice and action from law enforcement and those who dispense justice, and the safety of all citizens to intervene immediately and assure us that our lives are valuable in our own homeland,” he posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.

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Ukraine war giving China pause on Taiwan

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US defense strategists warn that China may use the distraction of the war in Ukraine to launch military action against Taiwan.

They believe Chinese President Xi Jinping is determined to gain control over the breakaway province – which has been beyond Beijing’s control since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 – before he leaves office.

In response to these concerns, in July 2023, the US announced a US$345 million military aid package for Taiwan. For the first time, arms are being delivered to Taiwan from U.S. stockpiles under presidential drawdown authority, which does not require congressional approval.

Such fears have been heightened by the fact that China has stepped up its probes of Taiwan’s defenses over the past year. Last month saw the release of an eight-part docuseries by state media broadcaster CCTV titled “Chasing Dreams” about the Chinese military’s readiness to attack Taiwan.

But opinion remains divided over just how likely it is that Xi will launch a military action to occupy Taiwan, and whether the war in Ukraine makes such action more or less likely.

Factors making war more likely

The main argument that the war in Ukraine makes a Chinese attack on Taiwan more likely centers on the failure of the threat of US sanctions to deter Russia from invading.

Russian President Vladimir Putin believed that US power, weakened by the Trump presidency, was in decline. He also knew – because President Joe Biden said so – that the US was unwilling to commit its own troops in combat against the nuclear-armed foe.

Putin saw the hasty American withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 as a sign that the US has lost its appetite for military intervention overseas. The US relies on economic sanctions to pressure adversaries such as Iran, Russia and China.

But Putin was confident that Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas would prevent it from imposing serious sanctions on Russia. He was also emboldened by the lackluster Western response to Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 and annexation of Crimea in 2014.

It turned out that Putin was wrong about Europeans’ unwillingness to stop buying Russian energy. But he was right about the U.S. aversion to committing its own forces to defend Ukraine.

As with Ukraine, US policy regarding Taiwan is built around using the threat of economic sanctions to deter China from attacking the province. However, there is also the possibility – absent in Ukraine – that the US would commit its forces to defend Taiwan.

The official US policy is one of “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan. Furthermore, there is the simple geographical fact that Taiwan is an island, and thus easier to defend than Ukraine.

For the people of Taiwan, Putin’s invasion shows that an authoritarian leader can wage war at any time, for no good reason. Ukraine has so far managed to prevent a Russian victory, but it is paying a heavy price in terms of lost lives and a shattered economy.

According to some Taiwanese observers, the people of Taiwan would be unwilling to pay such a heavy price to preserve its political autonomy.

There is also the concern that the US is so tied up with the Ukraine crisis that it does not have the political bandwidth to deal with Chinese pressure on Taiwan. Arms that could have been sold to Taiwan have been sent to Ukraine. Xi may see this as an opportunity that he can exploit.

Protesters hold Chinese flags and banners supporting One China policy
Chinese residents in Portugal protest US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022. Pelosi visited despite Beijing’s objection to all official contact between Taipei and Washington. Photo: Horacio Villalobos#Corbis / Corbis via Getty Images / The Conversation

Factors that make war less likely

There are, however, several factors that make conflict over Taiwan less probable. Russia’s failure to achieve victory in Ukraine makes it less likely that Xi would gamble on the use of military force to occupy Taiwan.

The Wall Street Journal’s Yaroslav Trofimov argues that “the Ukrainian war has focused minds in Beijing on the inherent unpredictability of a military conflict.” Meanwhile, Bi-khim Hsiao, Taiwan’s representative in the US, has said that Ukraine’s success in defending itself will deter China from attacking Taiwan.

One reason is advances in weaponry. The latest generation of drones and missiles capable of destroying aircraft, ships and tanks favors the defense. This makes invasion of Taiwan more risky for China. Moreover, Russia’s weapons seem to be generally less effective than those of its NATO counterparts – and China’s arsenal relies heavily on Russian designs.

Also, the Ukraine war has unified European allies behind US leadership. In 2019, French President Emanuel Macron was talking about NATO being “brain dead.” After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the alliance stepped up defense spending and both Sweden and Finland applied for membership. Finland officially joined NATO in April 2023 while Sweden awaits final ratification.

The European Union was previously reluctant to join the US trade war with China. However, China’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made Brussels more willing to join the US in pushing back against China’s efforts to dominate key sectors of global trade.

EU Commission President Ursula van der Leyen said in March 2023 that “China is becoming more repressive at home and more assertive abroad.” China is all too aware that overstepping in Taiwan would further unite nations in a trade war against Beijing.

The Ukraine war has also unified core Asian allies behind US leadership. Taiwan, Japan and South Korea joined the sanctions on Russia, and Japan plans to increase defense spending by 60% by 2027.

In March 2022, Russia added Taiwan to its Unfriendly Countries and Territories List, and in August 2022 Taiwan canceled visa-free travel for Russians, which had been introduced in 2018.

It is difficult to assess how sanctions on Russia affect China’s decision calculus. The sanctions have seriously hurt Russia’s economy, but have not prevented the country from waging the war. Given China’s high level of trade with Europe and the US, it is likely that sanctions leveled in retaliation for an attack on Taiwan would be severely damaging for the Chinese economy.

In launching the abortive war on Ukraine, Russia has shown itself to be weak and unstable, and therefore less useful as an ally to China. Besides the initial failure to take Kiev, developments such as the Wagner mutiny illustrate the fragility of the Putin regime and must have rung alarm bells in Beijing. In November 2022, Xi called for an end to threats to use nuclear weapons in an implicit rebuke to Russia.

Demonstrators attend a pro-Ukraine rally in Taiwan in February 2023. Photo: Walid Berrazeg / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images / The Conversation

The peace plan that China released in February 2023, “Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis,” insisted on the importance of respecting sovereignty while ignoring Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. It was arguably more about Taiwan than Ukraine.

China seemingly wants to see an end to the Ukraine war, but on terms acceptable to its ally, Moscow. China has accepted Russia’s narrative that NATO is to blame for the war, but still pays lip service to the importance of respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Those principles are central to the “One China” policy and Beijing’s claim to sovereignty over Taiwan. China’s failure to condemn the Russian invasion puts it in a position that is riven with contradictions and makes it hard to play a role as a broker for peace.

There is no simple answer to the question of how the war in Ukraine has impacted Beijing’s intentions regarding Taiwan. But it has starkly illustrated to all sides that the stakes are high, and the costs of miscalculation are punitive.

Peter Rutland is Professor of Government, Wesleyan University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Six Singapore presidential hopefuls submit Certificate of Eligibility to contest election: ELD

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SINGAPORE: Ahead of an expected Presidential Election on Sep 1, the Elections Department (ELD) announced on Thursday (Aug 17) that it has received six applications for the Certificate of Eligibility and 16 community declarations. The Certificate of Eligibility is one of two documents that candidates must apply for, if they wish to enter what wouldContinue Reading

Six Singapore presidential hopefuls submit certificate of eligibility applications to contest election: ELD

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Of the four presidential hopefuls that have made public their bid for the position, only Mr Tharman automatically qualifies, having fulfilled the public sector service requirement with his various ministerial appointments over almost two decades.

Mr Goh previously said he is confident of qualifying under the private sector “deliberative track”, adding that he has a group of five companies with a combined shareholders’ equity of S$1.52 (US$1.1 billion) billion over three years. 

Analysts have said it is unclear if a candidate can combine the average shareholder equity of several companies to meet the criterion.

Mr Ng, meanwhile, said he submitted his application for a certificate of eligibility via the public sector “deliberative track”.

“In other words, it is based on my experience and my duration of service at the GIC as the group’s chief investment officer,” he told reporters on Aug 3.

Mr Tan, the former chief of NTUC Income, contested the 2011 Presidential Election but analysts have said he may not automatically qualify this time round as eligibility criteria have changed since then.

Private sector candidates must have served as the chief executive of a company with shareholders’ equity of S$500 million or more for at least three years. 

NTUC Income had net assets of around S$1.17 billion in 2006, the last full year that Mr Tan served as CEO. But analysts said NTUC Income is a cooperative and not a “company” within the meaning of the relevant Article in the Constitution. 

The Presidential Elections Committee can still give its approval if it decides that Mr Tan has the experience and ability comparable to a chief executive of a company with shareholders’ equity of S$500 million or more.

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Charges sought in 36 cyanide misuse cases

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Serial killings prompt look at other breaches of laws regulating use of poisonous chemical

PUBLISHED : 17 Aug 2023 at 16:56

Charges sought in 36 cyanide misuse cases
Police take custody of suspected serial killer Sararat “Aem Cyanide” Rangsiwuthaporn on April 26. (Photo supplied)

The Department of Industrial Works has asked police to take legal action against 36 people including the accused serial killer whose crimes triggered a closer look at the use and misuse of cyanide.

Supakit Boonsiri, the deputy director-general of the department, filed the request with the Central Investigation Bureau (CIB) on Wednesday.

The 36 people comprise an importer of cyanide, four dealers of the chemical and 31 users of the poisonous substance including Sararat “Aem Cyanide” Rangsiwuthaporn, who was indicted last month on one count of murder.

Prosecutors are continuing to review police evidence in 13 other poisoning deaths and one attempted murder and more indictments are expected to follow.

Among those who came to public attention not long after Ms Sararat’s arrest in late April was actress Preechaya “Ice” Pongthananikorn, who admitted having bought cyanide online to repel monitor lizards that had been threatening her dogs.

Police subsequently questioned the celebrity and found nothing criminal about her action, deputy national police chief Surachate Hakparn said at the time.

As for other cases involving cyanide, the police Crime Suppression Division, under the CIB, is currently looking into several charges that include the illegal possession of a hazardous substance.

Anyone suspected of improper or illegal use of the chemical will be called in to acknowledge the charges, said Pol Col Anek Taosuparp, deputy commander of the division.

Ms Sararat, 36, is said to be facing more than 75 charges including premeditated murder, attempted murder, theft causing death, and forgery.

Fourteen victims died and one survived a series of incidents that spanned eight years from 2015 to 2023. Pol Gen Surachate called the case historic based on the number of dead victims by a single murderer.

The 15 cases were spread over seven provinces — Nakhon Pathom, Samut Sakhon, Kanchanaburi, Phetchaburi, Ratchaburi, Udon Thani and Mukdahan.

The investigation was expanded following the arrest of the suspect on April 25 in connection with the death of Siriporn “Koy” Khanwong, 32.

Siriporn collapsed and died on the banks of the Mae Klong River in Ban Pong district of Ratchaburi, where she had just released fish for merit-making on April 14 with Ms Sararat. Cyanide was found in the victim’s blood.

Police found Ms Sararat to have been a heavy online gambler. She allegedly killed her victims to steal their money or to free herself from the debts she owed them.

Police believed she mixed cyanide in the victims’ food — except in the Mukdahan case in which she allegedly sent “diet pills” to her victim, Sawittree Budsrirak, 40, who died in 2020.

Actress Preechaya “Ice” Pongthananikorn was caught up in a media feeding frenzy earlier this year when it was learned that she had bought cyanide online to repel monitor lizards that had been threatening her dog. Police later cleared her of any criminal conduct.

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How the Wagner Group coup hurt Russia in Asia

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The attempted armed mutiny in Russia on June 23-24, 2023, by the Wagner private military company, led by Russia’s controversial oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, is continuing to generate shockwaves domestically and internationally. 

While the coup has triggered debates about the survivability of Vladimir Putin’s regime, some preliminary conclusions can also be drawn about what the mutiny means more broadly for Asia.

Two principal issues need to be considered — what the future of the Wagner Group is and the implications of its attempted mutiny for Moscow’s international standing in Asia.

Formally established in 2014, the Wagner Group gained a reputation for being the world’s most effective but lethal private security contractors, specializing in missions abroad in direct support of the Russian state or its foreign clients. 

Initially comprising ex-active service personnel, the Wagner Group was active in Syria and parts of Africa, where it established a strong physical, informational and reputational footprint.

Since the start of Russia-Ukraine confrontation in 2014, the Wagner Group has been actively involved in aiding pro-Russian separatist forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. From 2022, its expanded combat element engaged in frontline operations against the Ukrainian forces in central Donbas.

The fallout from the is likely to affect the Wagner Group’s future operations abroad, including within parts of Asia where their activities are less well documented. With the release of disclosed reports of targeted actions against Wagner’s command in Syria, the group’s future operations will likely be transformed as its residual element loses operational autonomy.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, speaking in Bakhmut in a video released this year. Photo: Telegram channel / @concordgroup_official

While evidence of the extent and scale of the company’s operations elsewhere in Asia is scant, concerns have been expressed about possible involvement in covert activities in Afghanistan, Myanmar and North Korea.

Activities reported include the recruitment of former special forces personnel to fight against Ukraine, technical assistance and training, and alleged illegal conventional arms transfers.

Within Myanmar and North Korea, it is possible that the coup will result in any links controlled by the Wagner being transferred to official channels or other private entities acting in the interests of the Russian state. 

While Russia’s ability to utilize the Wagner Group for future clandestine activities across Asia will be curtailed, some of its elements — absorbed in Russia’s power structures or within another company — may still be called on.

A more problematic implication of the attempted coup is the potential reputational risks for Putin’s credibility as a sustainable political force controlling Russia in the eyes of Asian countries. 

During the online meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on July 4, 2023, Putin emphasized that the mutiny did not undermine the unity of his nation or ruling elites, flagging that he remained in control of the country.

Still, questions linger as to whether Prigozhin’s actions exposed hidden problems within the Kremlin and the larger Russian political spectrum. The release of some details of a special meeting between Putin, Prigozhin and the Wagner Group commanders is likely to raise more questions than put the matter to rest.

The ongoing ambiguity could influence Asia’s ruling elites’ future views of their countries’ interactions with Russia at a time when Moscow is desperately trying to strengthen its ties with the region. 

China is a good example. Although Beijing’s official response to the news of the coup was carefully worded considering its special partner status, concern was nonetheless expressed in official media outlets.

The reaction of other many other Asian nations was equally mixed. Official commentary has either been restrained or inclined to condemn the mutiny, yet regional media has tended to focus more on the problems for Putin’s regime. 

Some Indian media went further by openly questioning Russia’s stability, while the Thai press speculated that a weakened Putin might be more compliant to Beijing’s influence.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing domestic criticism for his war. Image: Twitter

It will take some time for the Kremlin to restore the confidence of regional elites in its political sustainability. The Russian diplomatic corps working across Asia are now facing a major task of damage control and reputation repair. 

Putin will have to prove that he remains in charge, that the Kremlin is united and that Russian oligarchs like Prigozhin are not shaping the country’s internal and foreign agendas. 

If he fails, Russia risks losing the image it has promoted over the past two decades – as an alternative power center to the United States and China.

Alexey Muraviev is Associate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University, Western Australia.

This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.

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