Mr Tan reiterated that he is an “independent” candidate while Mr Tharman and Mr Ng “represent the establishment candidate”.

He said he believes voters strongly prefer an “independent” candidate, adding: “I believe that that proportion will probably be more than half, so I stand a very good chance.

“Because I’m reaching out to people who say they want to have an independent president who can be independent of the ruling government and see things from a different perspective.”

Mr Tan previously said he would step aside if Mr Goh qualified as he did not want to split the votes of Singaporeans who prefer an “independent” candidate.

On Friday, he said that he had expected a two-way or three-way contest all along.

He said he was “personally disappointed” that Mr Goh did not qualify for the election, but believes the votes from Mr Goh’s supporters will come to him instead.

“When Mr Goh is no more in the contest, I will be likely to get (the) majority of those votes of people who want an independent president. The votes will not be split. Therefore I’m very confident that this very large segment will support me.”

He added: “My aim is to also reach out to the middle ground. They sometimes vote for the current establishment, sometimes they don’t. That middle ground is very important to me.”

The eligible candidates will next have to submit their nomination papers on Aug 22. If more than one candidate is nominated, Polling Day will take place on Sep 1.

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Srettha Thavisin rejects graft claims, promises poverty action

Srettha Thavisin rejects graft claims, promises poverty action
Property mogul Srettha: I am innocent

Pheu Thai Party’s prime ministerial candidate Srettha Thavisin says he wants to tackle poverty and inequality, as he fends off corruption allegations ahead of a confirmation vote next week.

Parliament will meet on Tuesday to vote on whether to approve the wealthy property mogul as prime minister and end three months of rumbling political deadlock since the May 14 general election.

The 61-year-old’s Pheu Thai Party heads a multi-party coalition formed after the reformist Move Forward Party (MFP) — which won the most seats — saw its leader denied the PM spot by conservative, pro-military forces.

“I would like to reiterate that my enemy is poverty and inequality. My goal is to make every Thai person’s life better,” Mr Srettha said in a video message on Facebook on Friday.

Mr Srettha, the former head of Thai property giant Sansiri, rejected allegations of improper dealings made in recent weeks by Chuvit Kamolvisit, a colourful former massage parlour tycoon turned anti-graft whistleblower.

“We are transparent in our work. I come here today to show my innocence to the general public that my activities were done according to the law,” he said.

“I would like to refute all claims that Chuvit has made against me.”

Mr Chuvit this week asked police to investigate two land purchases by Sansiri, which is listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).

House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha confirmed the vote for prime minister would be on Tuesday, starting no later than 3pm.

To become premier, Mr Srettha needs a majority across both the lower house of 500 elected MPs, and the 250-member Senate which was handpicked by the kingdom’s last junta.

Opposition from the Senate to the MFP’s plans to amend Section 112, also known as the lese majeste law, and tackle business monopolies sank its leader Pita Limjaroenrat’s ambitions.

And so despite winning most seats, the MFP will go into opposition while two parties from the outgoing army-backed government will have a share in power.

On Thursday it was confirmed the new coalition would include the United Thai Nation Party (UTN) of outgoing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha — a former army chief who deposed an elected Pheu Thai government to seize power in 2014.

And the coalition also includes Bhumjaithai — another party from the outgoing government — leading some to question how different the new administration will be from the old one.

Former massage parlour tycoon-turned-whistle-blower Chuvit Kamolvisit reveals his latest allegation against Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidate Srettha Thavisin at the Davis Hotel, which he owns, in Bangkok, on Tuesday. (Photo: Somchai Poomlard)

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S billion money laundering probe: 105 properties linked to suspects include Sentosa Cove bungalows, condominium units

SINGAPORE: Properties linked to 10 foreign nationals arrested in a S$1 billion (US$736 million) money laundering probe included seven detached bungalows in Sentosa Cove, 79 condominium units and 19 commercial spaces. In an update on Friday (Aug 18), the police said that 105 properties have now been issued with prohibition of disposal orders inContinue Reading

MFP firm on urging parliament to review Pita’s renomination

MFP firm on urging parliament to review Pita's renomination
Move Forward Party (MFP) MP Rangsiman Rome reaffirms that he will push for a motion for parliament to review its July 19 resolution rejecting Mr Pita’s renomination. (Photo: Pattarapong Chatpattarasill)

Move Forward Party (MFP) list-MP Rangsiman Rome stands firm that he will urge parliament to reconsider its decision to reject the renomination of MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat as prime minister.

Mr Rangsiman said on Friday that he will proceed with his motion for a new parliamentary review of the resolution passed on July 19. 

The 31-year-old MP said he would present the proposal during a meeting of the Senate whip and representatives of political parties, convened by Parliament President Wan Muhamad Noor Matha, on Friday. The objective is to establish a timeline for debating the motion in the upcoming parliamentary session scheduled for Aug 22.

The MFP member said it was not necessary for the debate to be lengthy as it would provide parliament an opportunity to reflect upon potential errors made.

“Regarding the vote on this motion, we hope we’ll win, but the final decision does not rest with us,” said Mr Rangsiman. “Frankly speaking, compromising our principles in this matter would establish a precedent with far-reaching implications.” 

“Using the parliamentary mechanism for nominations carries implications beyond the prime ministerial post, as it also extends to other roles. We must take extra caution when employing this issue (parliament’s resolution to reject Mr Pita’s renomination) as a precedent.”

During a joint session of the House and Senate on July 13th, the MFP leader failed to secure the majority required for the prime ministerial post. On July 19th, parliament voted against allowing Mr Pita to be renominated.

On Wednesday, the Constitutional Court dismissed the Ombudsman’s petition related to the rejected renomination of Mr Pita. The court based its decision on the grounds that the three petitioners, Pornchai Theppanya and Boonsong Chalaythorn, who both voted for the MFP in the May 14 general election, and Move Forward MP Panyarut Nuntapusitanon, were not directly affected by the parliamentary decision.

Upon learning of the ruling, Mr Pita said he would not file a fresh petition with the court because he believed the issue should be settled by parliament rather than the court.

When asked whether Move Forward is ready to be the opposition again, Mr Rangsiman said the party would assume the role of opposition once a government is formed. He reaffirms his party’s position of not supporting the Pheu Thai Party’s nominee for prime minister.

On Tuesday, the election-winning MFP announced that it would not back Pheu Thai candidate Srettha Thavisin for prime minister as the formation of the government now is not reflective of the people’s voice.

Despite its divergence from Move Forward, second-placed Pheu Thai has been actively seeking its former ally’s backing for real estate tycoon Srettha to become the next prime minister.

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“I will give my very best”, says presidential hopeful Ng Kok Song after receiving certificate of eligibility

Since announcing his bid for the presidency on Jul 19, Mr Ng has reiterated his lack of political affiliations and his experience in managing the country’s reserves through his 45 years in public service.

Mr Ng started his career as an investment analyst in the Ministry of Finance in 1970, before moving to the Monetary Authority of Singapore when it was formed in 1971.

In 1986, he joined GIC and headed the equities and bond department. He held other posts, including managing director of public markets, before being appointed as group chief investment officer in 2007 – a position he held until his retirement in 2013.

The Elections Department, in its statement issued on Friday morning, said the Presidential Elections Committee “is satisfied that Mr Ng is a man of integrity, good character and reputation” based on information available.

The committee noted that Mr Ng was GIC’s group chief investment officer for more than three years.

It was also “satisfied” that given the nature of Mr Ng’s position and performance in GIC, Mr Ng has the experience and ability comparable to a person who was chief executive or held the most senior executive post at a Fifth Schedule entity. Such entities include key statutory boards and government-owned companies such as the Central Provident Fund Board, Temasek and GIC.

The committee added that it was satisfied that Mr Ng has the experience and ability to “effectively carry out the functions and duties of the office of President”.

The next step for those who have qualified is to be nominated as candidates. To do so, they must deliver their nomination papers, along with the certificate of eligibility, community certificate and political donation certificate, on Nomination Day on Aug 22.

Nomination proceedings will take place at the People’s Association auditorium at King George’s Avenue between 11am and 12pm.

If more than one candidate is nominated, Singaporeans will go to the polls on Sep 1, which will be declared a public holiday.

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Dnipro River bridgehead could be game-changer for Ukraine

There have been reports that Ukrainian units have crossed the Dnipro River and established bridgeheads on the eastern side – which could be an important moment in Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive push in the south. How many troops made the crossing and how secure their bridgehead really is remains unclear.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive push has thus far failed to gain the same momentum as their counterattacks last autumn, despite previously high expectations. Kiev is under considerable international pressure to show results – and soon – to maintain enthusiasm from the Western allies on whom it is depending for much of its weaponry.

That the counteroffensive has been more of a grind than last year’s lightning-fast push in September and October is down to several factors. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in June delayed the progress of Ukrainian forces towards the Dnipro by several weeks because of floodwater and has also widened the river.

Bridges across the Dnipro were also washed away, meaning an amphibious crossing has become the only option – and a much more difficult one.

Instead, Ukrainian progress can be characterized as slow but steady. There are daily reports that Ukrainian units operating in various sectors of the front lines are gradually recapturing villages occupied by Russian forces in the early days of the war.

But the rapid push south to the Sea of Azov to effectively cut Russia’s army in half and isolate Crimea has not materialized. It is not unreasonable to expect that the war will last for years.

Map showing the status of the Ukraine conflict on August 16 2023.
The status of the Ukraine conflict on August 16, 2023. Map: Institute for the Study of War via The Conversation

Dnipro’s importance

Crossing the Dnipro River and establishing a secure bridgehead on the eastern bank would be a breakthrough.

Throughout the history of conflicts in Ukraine going back millennia, the river has been a key strategic barrier. But it has huge importance for many areas of life in Ukraine: transport, energy – even food (the river was estimated before the war to supply 80% of the country’s fish).

But right now its strategic importance is at the fore. Running north to south through the whole of the Russian occupiers realized its strategic importance early on in the war, they understood they could divide and conquer Ukraine, and establish a natural defense against attacks by controlling the river.

During the counteroffensive in autumn 2022 Ukraine recaptured a considerable amount of territory in the east and south, and drove Russia from the west bank of the lower Dnipro. But Russia still dominates the east bank. Which is why reports of Ukrainian crossings are so important.

But these reports must be greeted with caution. Ukraine has held positions on the east bank before, allowing it to conduct raids into the Russian-occupied parts of Kherson region with the hope of establishing a presence there. But each of these has been beaten back.

But there is hope on the Ukrainian side that the latest raid could succeed where the others have failed. In its regular updates on the situation in Ukraine, the UK’s Ministry of Defense noted on August 14 that: “Ukrainian forces have worked to raid or set up small bridgeheads at new locations on the Russian-held east bank.”

This, in addition to the bridgehead it has held near the ruined Antonivsky bridge, close to the city of Kherson, since June, could allow it to push further south through Russian-held territory.

Next phase

There are several scenarios as to how the campaign might proceed. Russia is reported to be moving men and equipment south to reinforce and defend the east-bank Dnipro area and the key city of Kherson.

Heavy fighting also continues in the Bakhmut region, a year-long battle that has consumed many thousands of lives over the past 12 months.

There are daily reports of offensive and counteroffensive operations on both sides in the region, which Russia sees as key to capturing and controlling the Donetsk region, which it claimed last September after “referendums”, condemned in the West as a sham.

Ukrainian forces are also reported to be involved in heavy fighting on at least three sectors of the front, and advancing in the Luhansk region, north-east of Donetsk and in the western Zaporizhia region, further south.

All of which means that Russia’s planners are faced with a balancing act as to whether to maintain troops concentrations in these sectors of the frontline or move more units south to reinforce the east bank of the Dnipro.

A successful assault resulting in a substantial Ukrainian breakthrough on the east of the Dnipro in the Kherson region would give Ukrainian troops a much easier and clearer path to Crimea.

A column of Russian army trucks moves across the town of Armyansk, northern Crimea, on the way to Kherson in a February 2022 file photo before the recently announced retreat. Image: TASS / Sergei Malgavko

Meanwhile, reports that Ukraine has recaptured the strategically important town of Urozhaine in the western Zaporizhia region has opened the possibility of a push south towards the Sea of Azov, which Kiev has declared to be one of its key objectives in this counteroffensive.

But as the New York Times cautioned recently, “the fact that progress in Kiev’s long-anticipated counteroffensive is now measured by the recapture of small villages reinforces how difficult the fighting has become.”

Hard slog

As US military analyst Frederick Kagan wrote in Time magazine recently: “Much as we might hope that the road to the Sea of Azov will simply open for Ukrainian forces the odds are high that fighting will remain hard, casualties high and frustration will be a constant companion. All of which is normal in war.”

So while there are daily reports of positive developments in Ukraine’s slow but steady counteroffensive, much will continue to depend on the steadfastness of support from Kiev’s Western allies.

There are signs of war weariness in some countries that were formerly solid supporters of Ukraine, including – for example – Slovakia, where a pro-Kremlin candidate is leading in the polls ahead of next month’s election, campaigning on withdrawing support for Ukraine both militarily and in terms of maintaining sanctions.

Kiev must pray that this does not become a pattern that would fracture NATO support for its war effort.

Veronika Poniscjakova is Senior Teaching Fellow, University of Portsmouth

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Japan stock market miracle more mirage than reality

The Japanese stock market has experienced an impressive upswing. Since January 2023, the Nikkei 225 index has risen by around 30% – by far outperforming US and European stocks. 

The boom is driven by foreign investors, with Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffet’s Japan visit seen as a “stamp of approval” for investing in Japan.

The boom is surprising because since early 2023 the corporate sector has had no positive news concerning innovations that would boost the international competitiveness of Japanese products. 

As the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has hardly lifted interest rates, financing conditions have remained benign, allowing corporations to postpone restructuring.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s new capitalism has not come with comprehensive structural reforms. The Japanese education system continues to fail to produce innovative human capital and the fast-aging society is becoming an increasing constraint on labor supply. 

From this perspective, Japan’s growth perspectives remain gloomy. The boom seems more financial than real, supported by historically low real interest rates in Japan.

Foreigners drove the June 2023 Japanese stock market surge. In the United States and the euro area, the sharp inflation increase since mid-2021 has prompted central banks to lift interest rates high. This has clouded growth perspectives.

As financing costs for corporations have substantially increased and the value of bonds in the balance sheets of banks has declined, financial instability has emerged. With strong wage claims perpetuating inflation, a recession in the United States and Europe may be inevitable to tame inflation.

This seems to have tempted foreign investors to reshuffle funds to Japan, where the pressure on the BoJ to increase interest rates is lower and inflation has been less pronounced, standing at 3.3% in June 2023.

Central Bank Governor Kazuo Ueda remains committed to the yield curve targeting. The average credit interest rate was at 0.7% in June 2023 and the 10-year government yield has remained below 0.5%. 

New Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hasn’t rocked the policy boat. Image: Twitter / Screengrab

With US and European interest rates rising high relative to Japan, the Japanese yen has depreciated by 36.3% against the dollar since January 2021. This has made Japanese stocks cheap in terms of US dollars.

Despite the slight easing of the yield curve control in July 2023, in the medium-term the scope to increase interest rates for the BoJ remains limited. With government debt amounting to 1.44 quadrillion yen (US$9.6 trillion), raising interest rates would fiscally paralyze the Japanese government.

The BoJ’s large asset purchases have created large deposits for the commercial banks at the BoJ (549 trillion yen as of March 2023). Lifting the interest rates on commercial banks’ deposits by only one percentage point would generate painful interest rate expenses for BoJ of about 5.5 trillion yen.

This implies that Japanese corporations can continue to expect public support via benign financing conditions. With the BoJ continuing to buy government bonds — the equivalent of roughly 70 trillion yen in the first half of 2023 — the Japanese government can also remain supportive of aggregate business activity. There is also a larger scope for subsidies, which were announced for semiconductor and battery production.

Domestically, the yen’s depreciation boosted the revenues of large export-oriented Japanese enterprises. At the same time, depreciation made the acquisition of foreign assets more expensive and repurchases of Japanese stocks more attractive. 

In 2022, stock repurchases by Japanese corporations reached a historical peak of 9.2 trillion yen. For 2023, SMBC Nikko Securities has already recorded a volume of 4.6 trillion yen as of mid-May.

While the Nikkei 225 is slowly reapproaching its peak before the bubble economy bursts, the new stock market miracle seems driven by state intervention — as previously in the case of Abenomics. 

On top of direct and indirect subsidies, the BoJ has in the past bought large amounts of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). As of June 2023, it held about 57 trillion yen (37 trillion yen in book value) in ETFs. This equated to 81% of all Japanese ETFs.

Whereas the Japanese government and the BoJ keep zombifying Japanese corporations, interest rate increases in the United States and Europe will exert pressure on US and European corporations to increase efficiency and push forward innovation. This suggests that the long-term fundamental growth prospects of stock markets are in favor of the United States.

Japan and its corporations will only be able to recuperate their past strength if the BoJ follows the interest rate policy of the US Federal Reserve. Doing so will prompt the corporations to increase efficiency and urge the government to implement decisive structural reforms.

Taiki Murai is Research Assistant at the Institute for Economic Policy, Leipzig University.

Gunther Schnabl is Professor of Economic Policy and International Economics at Leipzig University.

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