Koh Sichang development progressing

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Popular island in Chon Buri needs more infrastructure and waste management upgrades

PUBLISHED : 18 Aug 2023 at 20:03

Koh Sichang development progressing
Development projects including a 3.1-hectare solar farm and groundwater facilities are being carried out on Koh Sichang, a popular day-trip destination just 45 minutes by ferry from Sri Racha in Chon Buri. (Photo: Pongpat Wongyala)

CHON BURI: The director of the Crown Property Bureau has visited Koh Sichang to follow up on progress of development projects including a 3.1-hectare solar farm and groundwater facilities.

ACM Satitpong Sukvimol was joined by Interior Ministry permanent secretary Suttipong Juljarern and Chatuporn Burutpa, the permanent secretary of the National Resources and Environment Ministry and other senior officials.

Mr Suttipong said the visit on Thursday focused on land management by the Department of Public Works and Town and Country Planning and the water system layout by the Provincial Waterworks Authority.

The island is part of the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) city plan that will be introduced in the next eight months, said Pongrat Piromrat, director-general of the Department of Public Works and Town and Country Planning.

He said the department aims to upgrade land utility, infrastructure development and tourism on Koh Sichang. Other priorities include the transport system, improved water and electricity facilities and the conservation of landmarks.

The Department of Groundwater Resources had found two wells that can provide drinking water for islanders during the dry season. The wells were dug as a result of a drinking water shortage that affected over 2,200 households on Koh Sichang in the summer, said Mr Pongrat.

He said a 3.1-hectare solar farm is being constructed to supply electricity for 1,600 households on the island. It will be the island’s first source of renewable energy under the Smart City scheme.

Waste management is becoming a challenge for the island as well, said Kajorn Srichawanothai, head of the Department of Local Administration. The amount of garbage collected on Koh Sichang is about 10-15 tonnes per day while the incinerator can only burn six tonnes.

Mr Suttipong said garbage on the island should be sent to the mainland for processing. Chon Buri governor Thawatchai Srithong said private-sector investment in incinerators could solve the poor waste management problem on the island.

Senior officials including ACM Satitpong Sukvimol, director of the Crown Property Bureau, review a progress update during a visit to Koh Sichang on Thursday.

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Biden hosts historic SK-Japan summit to counter China

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US President Joe Biden walks to board Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, on 17 August 2023, as he departs for Camp DavidGetty Images
By Laura Bicker
Asia Pacific correspondent

The United States and China have achieved what many deemed impossible – a historic meeting between US President Joe Biden, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol.

Mr Biden is hosting the first stand-alone meeting among the three countries at the Camp David presidential retreat in the US on Friday. It’s a diplomatic – but still tenuous – coup for the American leader.

South Korea and Japan are neighbours and old US allies, but they have never been friends.

Now, however, an increasingly assertive China has renewed US interest in East Asia. And it has brought together two countries who for decades have struggled to overcome deep historical grievances.

“I find the meeting at Camp David mind-blowing,” Dennis Wilder wrote on X. A professor at Georgetown University, Mr Wilder managed the Japan and South Korea relationship under former President George W Bush.

At that time, they could “barely get South Korean and Japanese leaders to meet with us in the same room,” he said.

In recent months, Mr Kishida and Mr Yoon have taken tentative steps to resolve their hostilities, and strengthen ties with Washington. This once-inconceivable alliance is driven by shared concerns – the biggest of which is China.

The meeting at Camp David – also the first time foreign leaders have visited the presidential retreat since 2015 – is an attempt to “signify and to demonstrate how seriously” Mr Biden takes the relationship between Japan and South Korea, according to a White House spokesman.

“The Camp David summit is truly historic, unimaginable until now, because the Seoul-Tokyo relationship was always fraught with historical disputes miring the two legs of the triangle,” says Duyeon Kim from the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for New American Security in Seoul.

“It’s an extremely rare opportunity for the three countries to propel their vision to the next level. They should seize it and push ahead boldly on even ambitious issues before presidential election cycles test or even strain the durability of their commitments.”

Why has it taken this long?

For one, the wounds are old.

Some may describe the two countries as “frenemies”, but it’s too trite a term to describe the deep hurt among South Koreans, including the thousands of so-called “comfort women” who were abducted and used as sex slaves by the Japanese army during Wold War Two.

South Koreans believe the Japanese never properly apologised for the colonisation of the Korean peninsula from 1910 to 1945. Tokyo, however, argued that it had atoned for its historical sins in several treaties.

Any detente has always been fragile, almost akin to a game of Jenga. Even when the East Asian bloc appeared solid, a single wrong move could bring the whole edifice down.

In 2018, a long-running court case in Seoul over Japan’s use of forced labour during WW2 started a trade dispute which plunged relations between the neighbours to their lowest since the 1960s.

But there has been progress recently, including a milestone meeting in March, offering Washington a new window of opportunity.

But there is a good reason for the two new administrations to put their differences aside, even at the cost of political capital on the domestic front.

This is, after all, the era of pragmatic politics – and they see a bigger threat looming.

China’s assertive posture in Asia has alarmed its neighbours. Beijing claims Taiwan, a democratically governed island, and has not ruled out the use of force to “unify” it with the mainland. Incursions into Taiwanese airspace and major military drills are now the so-called “new normal”.

South Korea's Yoon Suk Yeol (L) and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida shake hands during a visit to the "Monument in Memory of the Korean Victims of the A-bomb" near the Peace Park Memorial during the G7 Summit Leaders' Meeting on 21 May 2023 in Hiroshima, Japan

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There is also North Korea. which has carried out more than 100 weapons tests since the start of 2022, including firing missiles towards Japan. The war in Ukraine too has prompted many countries, including South Korea and Japan, to prioritise national security.

All of this appears to have helped Mr Biden win where previous administrations in Washington have failed.

“This marks a major milestone in the history of the trilateral relationship that has moved in fits and starts over the last three decades,” said Andrew Yeo, the SK-Korea foundation Chair at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

He says the three sides will aim to “cement the gains” they have made in the last year or so, “while building momentum… to address a range of security challenges in north-east Asia and the Indo-Pacific region”.

That would mean signing agreements on defence, diplomacy and technology. It’s already known that they will agree to hold regular military exercises, set up a new three-way crisis hotline and, crucially, pledge to meet once a year. Washington’s goal then is to establish long-term ties that will last well beyond the sitting presidents.

“Biden, Yoon and Kishida have a chance to make even bigger history that lasts beyond a milestone meeting at Camp David,” said Duyeon Kim.

“Their respective governments will need to implement their joint vision proactively and beyond their leadership terms because the Seoul-Tokyo relationship will continue to ebb and flow. If an ultra-leftist South Korean president and an ultra-right-wing Japanese leader are elected in their next cycles, then any one of them could derail all the meaningful, hard work Biden, Yoon and Kishida are putting in right now.”

And here lies the challenge.

Will it last?

Kurt Campbell, Deputy Assistant to President Biden and Co-ordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs, has praised the “political courage” of Mr Kishida and Mr Yoon, calling it “a breathtaking kind of diplomacy”.

But a change of leadership could see a change of heart.

“Tensions that run deep, particularly in South Korea due to past historical animosities related to Japan’s colonisation of Korea, do not disappear overnight, and we’re likely to continue to see diplomatic spats arise, as was the case a couple of weeks ago when the Japanese ministry of defence claimed Dokdo (Takeshima islands) as its own in its national security strategy,” said Andrew Yeo.

“Relatively low approval ratings for Kishida and Yoon back at home may limit the amount of diplomatic capital the two leaders could sink into Korea-Japan relations. I also believe at some point the two sides, and Japan in particular, will need a more thorough reckoning of its colonial past in Korea and elsewhere.”

Japan and South Korea may also not want to go as far as Mr Biden in criticising China. Fearing a backlash, they may hardly mention Beijing in their public remarks following the summit.

And pacts involving economic measures might be harder to secure than agreements on national security.

Taiwan's AAV7 amphibious assault vehicle surfaces from the sea during the Han Kuang military exercise, which simulates China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) invading the island, on July 28, 2022 in Pingtung, Taiwan.

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US-China tensions, especially economic restrictions, have come at a cost to both South Korea and Japan. China is a key trading partner for both. And companies in Seoul and Tokyo – such as Samsung and Nissan – rely heavily on Chinese workers and consumers.

Beijing has already made its displeasure over the summit known. It will see it as yet another attempt by the US to “contain” its influence, no matter how much the White House denies this. It has already dubbed it a “mini-Nato”.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged South Korea and Japan to work with Beijing to “revitalise East Asia”.

In July, in a video that has now been widely shared, he made an unusually blunt appeal: “No matter how blond you dye your hair or how sharp you shape your nose, you can never become a European or American, you can never become a Westerner. We must know where our roots lie.”

While Mr Biden has – successfully perhaps – focused on building defence alliances in Asia, it has left little room for engagement with Beijing and Pyongyang.

There were signs this was changing, with a flurry of recent Beijing visits by senior US officials – Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and US special envoy on climate John Kerry. There are also reports that Washington has approached the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un with an offer of high-level talks “without preconditions”.

But time is running out as another US election cycle begins.

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Japan, Philippines on verge of VFA defense pact

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MANILA – The historic meeting among leaders of the United States, Japan and South Korea this week at Camp David has been hailed as a “new milestone” in the burgeoning trilateral alliance.

For the first time in contemporary history, leaders from the three nations are set to hold an official joint summit, underscoring the Biden administration’s success in soothing historic tensions between its two key East Asian allies.

But while the world has been transfixed by the budding potential for a powerful trilateral alliance, which could be central to the success of America’s China strategy, another vital trilateral alliance is more quietly taking shape.

This week, Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo effectively confirmed long-running speculation about a possible new defense pact between Japan and the Philippines.

During a congressional hearing on the latest tensions in the South China Sea, the Philippines’ diplomatic chief acknowledged that a new Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) is in the works with a key Asian partner “near China.”

Shortly after, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr met a top representative from the KomeitoParty, a key partner in Japan’s ruling coalition, to reiterate his commitment to upgrading already-robust bilateral ties to new heights.

Manila reportedly seeks to transform its economics-heavy ties with Tokyo into a full-fledged alliance. Deepening military cooperation between the two Asian nations is also part of a broader emerging trilateral alliance between Japan, Philippines and the US (JAPHUS), which will be central to the Biden administration’s “integrated deterrence” strategy in the Indo-Pacific, especially over Taiwan.

Beyond America

Since coming to power, President Marcos Jr has endeavored to advance a new foreign policy doctrine. On one hand, he has doubled down on the Philippine-US Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which was negotiated under the Benigno Aquino III administration.

As a result, the US Pentagon is set to enjoy unprecedented access to prized Philippine military facilities, especially those close to both Taiwan and the South China Sea, in the entire post-Cold War period.

At the same time, however, Marcos Jr has also tried to build on the legacy of the Rodrigo Duterte administration, which tried to pivot to rising powers across the non-Western world, most notably China and Russia.

This week, for instance, Marcos Jr personally met the incoming ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Yousef Esmaeilzadeh, to explore strategic cooperation including in areas such as food security.

“The Philippines now is continuing to foster new partnerships between what we have come to call non-traditional partners.,” Marcos Jr told his Iranian guest at the Malacañang Palace. In the past, Iran served as a major energy supplier to the Philippines, but the reimposition of US sanctions has disrupted a once-booming bilateral relationship.

More significantly, however, Marcos Jr is also expanding relations with other fellow US allies, most notably Japan, which has historically been a top source of investments and development aid.

Both his immediate predecessors, Aquino and Duterte, actively pursued a comprehensive alliance with Japan. The same is true for the Philippine legislature, where there is bipartisan support for more robust defense ties with the Asian power.

“We’re [now] so close now to Japan, and remember Japan was once upon a time an enemy of the Philippines, but now we’re so close that I even told the Japanese Ambassador [in Manila]: ‘You’re in the Philippines, serving in the Philippines, in one of the best times because you’re now almost at par with the US [in terms of overall strategic relations]’” Philippine Ambassador to the US Jose Manuel Romualdez told Asia Times earlier this year.

Following Marcos Jr’s trip to Tokyo earlier this year, shortly after his state visit to Beijing, the two sides have stepped up their efforts to secure a new major defense pact.

Marcos and Kishida have lots to shake on. Image: Pool

“We are considering other possible similar arrangements with other friendly partners for countries who wish to do so. And in fact, we are in discussion now with one country, a major partner near China,” Philippine foreign affairs secretary Enrique Manalo told lawmakers this week, without openly mentioning Japan.

“We are in discussion with them for a similar arrangement. There are some technical details but the whole idea is to forge a stronger relationship,” Manalo added, raising certain hopes in Manila that a new VFA with Japan is now in the works.

New era of cooperation

Last June, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) held its first-ever trilateral exercises with Japanese and American counterparts in the Philippines.

This was part of broader efforts at enhancing interoperability among the three allied nations amid rising tensions in the region.

Recently, Embassy of Japan charges d’affaires Matsuda Kenichi reiterated that Tokyo is committed to “concretely” advancing maritime security cooperation with the Philippines.

Despite Japan’s historical atrocities during World War II, there seems to be much more broad-based elite support for a VFA with Japan than with Western powers such as Australia or the US, who secured similar defense arrangements with Manila in the past amid strong domestic opposition.

Influential Filipino politicians including Senate President Miguel Zubiri have openly called for a Philippine-Japan VFA, which will ultimately require ratification by the Philippine legislature.

“Japan is an ally, and with ongoing territorial disputes over our waters, we stand to benefit from stronger security cooperation with our allies,’’ the Philippine Senate leader said earlier this year.

“Japan is already offering vital support to our coast guard, not just through vessels and equipment but also through other capacity-building opportunities such as training…[so a] VFA will strengthen our partnership even further,’’ he added.

Should the two sides finalize a VFA with broad bipartisan support in Manila, it would allow the two sides to dramatically expand joint military drills, defense equipment exchanges and even potential joint operations during contingencies.

During his meeting with Japan’s Komeito Party representative, Marcos Jr emphasized the importance of bilateral cooperation to “preserving the peace and allowing the free conduct of trade and shipping in the South China Sea,” while reiterating his commitment to enhancing trilateral cooperation in tandem with the US.

“I refer to the trilateral agreements that we have been talking about and have started to implement in terms of joint patrols, in terms of joint exercises for the two maritime forces of Japan and the Philippines,” Marcos Jr said.

Deepening concerns over a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan seems to have accelerated the emerging JAPHUS alliance. Both the Philippines and Japan have military bases close to Taiwan’s shores, making them extremely crucial to America’s ability to deter any Chinese invasion of the self-governing island.

US Marines move to establish defensive positions at a bilateral amphibious landing during Balikatan 22, Claveria, Philippines, March 31, 2022. That year’s exercises were the largest-ever with over 17,000 troops. Image: US Marines / Lance Corporal Madison Santamaria

Direct military coordination between Manila and Tokyo, therefore, is sine qua non to the Pentagon’s contingency plans for defending Taiwan. Although top Filipino leaders have expressed “neutrality”, both Marcos Jr and his top defense officials have emphasized the importance of deterrence and preparing for a potential conflict in nearby Taiwan. 

During his recent trip to Taipei, former Japanese prime minister Taro Aso became the latest top leader to emphasize how Taiwan’s future is inextricably linked to Japan’s own national security.

“The most important thing now is to make sure that war doesn’t break out in the Taiwan Strait,” Aso, vice president of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, said during his recent trip to Taiwan.

“I believe that now is the time for Japan, Taiwan, the United States and other like-minded countries to be prepared to put into action very strong deterrence,” he said while emphasizing the need for regional allies to display “the resolve to fight” if necessary.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @Richeydarian

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Giant gargoyle-like statue stirs controversy in Bangkok

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The Nation, a local newspaper, reported a claim by a conservative group that worshippers planned “uncommon” rituals at the statue – even animal sacrifice. The Bazaar Hotel has said it did not put the statue up, telling AFP that another party rented the land and installed it. MYSTERIOUS ORIGINS ButContinue Reading

Taiwanese money laundering suspect extradited

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Man arrested in Bangkok linked to phone scammers and online gambling gangs

PUBLISHED : 18 Aug 2023 at 18:11

Taiwanese money laundering suspect extradited
An immigration officer gives details of a police operation to arrest Taiwanese suspect Kuo Che-min, wanted for laundering money for phone scammers and online gambling gangs, at a briefing on Friday in Bangkok. (Capture from Police TV)

A Taiwanese man wanted for allegedly laundering the equivalent of 3 billion baht for phone scammers and online gambling gangs has been returned to Taipei following his arrest in Bangkok.

Kuo Che-min, who was arrested in Bangkok on July 27, was transferred into the custody of prosecutors in the Taiwanese capital after being flown there on Aug 10. Thai Immigration Bureau police confirmed the news at a briefing on Friday.

Taiwanese authorities began investigating Mr Kuo’s organisation last year and took 23 people into custody, seizing cash and real estate in several raids.

The organisation has been accused of handling illegal transactions to launder foreign currencies totalling about NT$2.7 billion (3 billion baht).

Mr Kuo absconded to Singapore in October last year and had been travelling between Southeast Asian countries using Taiwanese and Cambodian passports, said Chen Ming-chun, deputy commissioner of the Criminal Investigation Bureau in Taiwan.

Taiwanese investigators reportedly were alerted to Mr Kuo’s whereabouts after Malaysian authorities flagged his Cambodian passport when he used it to travel between Malaysia and Thailand.

The Taipei Economic and Cultural Office, which represents the interests of the island republic in Thailand, brought the case to the attention of local immigration police.

The Office said Mr Kuo had set up companies in several countries to launder money for phone scam gangs based in Cambodia and online gambling gangs operating in several countries in Asia and Europe.

According to the Immigration Bureau, Mr Kuo had entered the country with the use of a Thailand Elite Visa.

Immigration police apprehended the suspect at a luxury condominium in Klong San district of Bangkok, said Pol Lt Gen Pakphumpiat Sajjaphan, the bureau commissioner.

During the search of the condo, investigators found many electronic devices believed to have been used for committing offences.

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UN heavyweight faces off with Myanmar’s strongman

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The United Nations Under-Secretary for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths made a visit this week to Myanmar’s military capital Naypyidaw, and went mano-a-mano with dictator Min Aung Hlaing, recently self-appointed prime minister and head of the State Administration Council (SAC) junta.

Griffiths, also the head of the Office Coordinating Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), is probably the highest-ranking UN official to visit Myanmar since the February 2021 coup.

The UN and international aid agencies have been facing severe restrictions on responding not just to spreading armed conflict throughout Myanmar, which has displaced nearly two million civilians, but also following Cyclone Mocha devastated large parts of Rakhine state and Magwe and Sagaing Regions in mid-May. The military continues to obstruct recovery efforts and reconstruction.

State-run media ran this headline the day after Griffiths and Min Aung Hlaing met and shook hands in Naypyidaw; “Global community should seek accurate information on Myanmar’s situation.”

From the military’s side, the topics for discussion ranged from “spreading misinformation on various situations of Myanmar in the international community, the need for the international community to know actual conditions in Myanmar, lesser aid of international organizations including the United Nations for Myanmar in the period when the Covid-19 broke out and storm (Cyclone) Mocha hit, and further cooperation in humanitarian aid.”

This could be summarized as Min Aung Hlaing blaming the UN and the international community for the violence and dysfunction fueled by his failing military rule. We shouldn’t mistake Griffiths’ visit as a genuine gesture of cooperation from the SAC after years of foreign aid obstruction across the country.

For Min Aung Hlaing it was a “kneel before me” moment, even if the OCHA head isn’t “a take the knee” kind of guy. A seasoned diplomat, founder of the Center for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD Center) and advisor to Middle East peace envoys, Griffiths is a practiced interlocutor with despots. Maybe that’s the problem: he’s simply going through the motions.

Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing has shown defiance to ASEAN but the bloc may nonetheless accept his elections as legitimate. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Sefa Karacan / Anadolu Agency

It was therefore glumly predictable Griffiths would release a tepid statement. “Successive crises in Myanmar have left one-third of the population in need of humanitarian aid. They expect more and better from their leaders and from the international community” is pointing out not just the obvious but the clear implication that the UN has been failing.

Then, quite brazenly, Griffiths claimed the UN could do better with more access and more funding, reminding a miserly world that the UN humanitarian response plan was only 22% funded.

It’s clear that UN communications messaging is comfortable with stark contradictions, but fund-raising after shaking hands with a war criminal and visiting disaster-racked Rakhine state? Indecorous, if not dehumanizing.

And if the UN has been unable to credibly claim they were capable of doing more with increased funding, then why give them more cash? A hangdog foreigner with hat in hand pleading for mercy and more money doesn’t move a war criminal.

The standard UN reproach after visits like this is wait-and-see the results: even small changes on the ground are evidence of progress and perhaps Griffiths’ was able to penetrate Min Aung Hlaing’s hard shell.

Unlikely. There has been intense criticism of the UN and the international community for their lack of progress in moving the SAC. Griffiths’ visit should be proof that Myanmar hasn’t completely disappeared from the UN’s conscience, and regardless of the view on “success”, he made the effort and is trying. But this is short-term memory loss logic.

Griffiths and the SAC have been at odds before. Responding to the Christmas Eve massacre at Hpruso in Kayah state, where SAC forces murdered 35 civilians and set fire to their vehicles, Griffiths released a statement two days later that stated:

“I condemn this grievous incident and all attacks against civilians throughout the country. I call upon the authorities to immediately commence a thorough and transparent investigation…(and) call upon the Myanmar Armed Forces and all armed groups in Myanmar to take all measures to protect civilians from harm.”

The SAC’s unconvincing response claimed: “Then, about 10 terrorists who were waiting on the hills of the village attacked with (assorted weapons)…KNPP (Karenni National Progressive Party and PDF (People’s Defense Forces) terrorists, including newcomers for explosive training, were arrested dead…the seven vehicles carrying petrol, diesel and foodstuffs collected from the villages by force for the terrorist groups were burnt.”

This has been the SAC’s response to UN accusations of war crimes since the 2021 coup: deny everything and wait for the UN to move on. It’s rumored it was Griffiths who defenestrated former UN special envoy Noeleen Heyzer. If there was valid criticism of Heyzer’s lack of progress, and a lot of criticism was misplaced, the SAC now sits squarely in Griffith’s inbox.

Former special envoy on Myanmar Noeleen Heyzer visiting a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh in August 2022. Image: Twitter / Screengrab

Three further points from Griffiths’ visit are evident. First, the obstruction of aid after Cyclone Mocha provides ample evidence of the SAC’s insincerity in helping people in need.

A recent report from the independent Center for Arakan Studies comparing responses to Cyclone Mocha and the devastating 2008 Cyclone Nargis indicated very similar military obstructing tactics to both disasters, and crucially in the weeks after the May storm, severe restrictions on Rakhine civil society aid workers – something Griffiths failed to mention in his statement.

The UN and aid organizations have also not been able to ensure unfettered access in conflict areas in Myanmar’s northwest, let alone in Rakhine and eastern borderlands, and the majority of aid delivered is in firmly SAC-controlled territory.

Second, Griffiths’ visit illustrates how utterly ineffective the UN Country Team has been, especially since Mocha. The Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator (ad interim) Ramanathan Balakrishnan has displayed all the qualities of senior UN management in an authoritarian setting in order to achieve maximum ineffectiveness. Griffiths wouldn’t have had to visit if the country team had been able to do its job. It’s not a performance that compels donors to reach for their checkbooks.

And third, Griffiths’ approach brings high-level international humanitarian mediation into further disrepute. A recent essay in Foreign Affairs by Natasha Hall and Emma Beals, entitled “Humanitarian Blackmail”, outlines the recent failures of UN engagement with authoritarian states, including Myanmar.

They argue that “humanitarian negotiation are no substitute for conflict resolution.” Using the case of the captured Cyclone Mocha response, the essay states: “As conditions on the ground worsen, the junta has done nothing to alleviate the suffering of the people they govern, likely waiting for high-level visits from senior officials from the UN…such negotiations legitimize their role as the primary international interlocutor and decision-maker regarding aid.”

It goes on to castigate international aid actors for failing to “reach communities outside junta control…in places where the government consistently impedes, manipulates, or diverts aid, it may be more effective for humanitarians to work outside the UN and in ways that do not require official consent.”

Although there are significant programs already out of the SAC’s control, including cross-border assistance and expanding “resistance humanitarianism”, which has been a feature of aid work in eastern Myanmar conflict zones for decades, the issue is one of scale and increased funding in areas outside of UN operating zones: not easy to do when foreign donors have funneled so much post-coup aid through the UN Office of Project Services (UNOPS), which has had no qualms with cooperating with the SAC.

It is not clear if, as part of the official protocol, Griffiths was taken on a tour of the recently opened Maravijaya Buddha statue in Naypyidaw, the tallest sitting marble Buddha in the world, with Min Aung Hlaing as its prominent patron.

Any courtesy visit would be potentially more scandalous that shaking Min Aung Hlaing’s hand. In recent days, there has been criticism over prohibitively expensive visiting and photography fees for the general public.

The entrance fee for foreigners is US$10. Perhaps Griffiths could have started the fundraising right then and there?

David Scott Mathieson is an independent analyst working on conflict, humanitarian and human rights issues on Myanmar

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Driven by passion and profit, more young Singaporeans buy art

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“I think it speaks first to the cultural heritage and passion for people’s own culture and the passion that they have in rediscovering the continuum of art. You don’t see artists today that haven’t been inspired by artists from yesterday, who are not inspired from artists from the day before.”

Art Consultancy Metis Art has also seen a rise in millennials purchasing works.

While they do not track the numbers, the firm’s director of education and consultancy Christine Chua said: “The pandemic was a turning point. Without the bustle of office life and constant travel, a lot of millennials became more introspective and curious about art. They also started to notice the empty spaces on their walls at home.”

While auction house Bonhams does not provide data by region, purchases by millennials and Gen Z clients increased by 147 per cent this year.

WHY ARE THEY BUYING ART?

Mr Hallewell said that the interest in art has partly been spurred by the economic situation over the past 18 months.

“We’ve seen the economic crisis with the stock shares, bonds, real estate volatility … The cost of living increases are having an impact and people are looking for a stable, safe haven investment. So art over the years has been demonstrated to be extremely resilient,” he said.

Ms Chua said that from a financial standpoint, society is in the midst of a “great generational wealth transfer” and art as an alternative asset proves to be a good hedge against inflation.

While Mr Berlin from Christie’s acknowledged that it is fair for potential buyers to ask if art costing up to eight figures will yield strong financial returns, his auction house does not advise collectors to buy purely for investment.

“There’s so many other things you can do if you really want to invest your money from real estate, stock market, in a financial market, bonds and we think these are more liquid and they are more easily accessible and sometimes even easier to price. We believe that art has to be a passion, collecting has to be a passion,” he said.

Art collection is, however, no cheap affair.

To acquire a valuable art piece, industry players said individuals must be willing to fork out at least between S$10,000 and S$50,000, a steep starting point that may be daunting for some newcomers.

Portfolio expert from Great Eastern Eddy Lim said that in terms of general investments, clients under the age of 35 typically do not invest more than S$3,000 a year, partly due to their limited disposable income.

People in this age group tend to spend their money on things like travel and concert tickets, he said.

“They’re still at a stage where they are trying to find out what works,” he added.

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China ‘contagion’ talk is last thing financial world needs

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China’s Zhongzhi Enterprise Group headline-making revelations have investors uttering global markets’ least favorite word: contagion.

A liquidity crisis at the troubled shadow bank comes just days after property development giant Country Garden missed coupon payments. Concerns surrounding Country Garden’s finances echo the China Evergrande Group default debacle of 2021.

Yet trouble in China’s US$3 trillion shadow banking sector raises the stakes considerably. The extreme opacity that pervades the industry means that neither investors nor credit rating companies know the true magnitude of leverage in the financial system.

Zhongzhi, with businesses ranging from mining to wealth management and high exposure to real estate, is a microcosm of the problem.

Its stumble has triggered broader fears of additional dominoes among Chinese conglomerates to fall. PTSD from earlier collapses of Anbang Insurance Group and HNA Group is just below the surface.

Since the end of July, Zhongrong International Trust Co, a leading company controlled by Zhongzhi, has missed dozens of payments on investment products.

It’s the latest sign of how China’s property debt woes are rippling through the economy and imperiling global markets.

“The worry is that a ‘Lehman moment’ beckons, threatening the solvency of China’s financial system,” says economist Xiaoxi Zhang at Gavekal Dragonomics.

Economist Ting Lu at Nomura Holdings adds that “markets still underestimate the aftermath of the significant collapse in China’s property sector.”

Chinese property developers are having trouble meeting their financial obligations. Photo: iStock

Concerns about Zhongzhi, which has more than 1 trillion yuan of assets under management, Zhang says, is a reminder that “debt strains from property developers and local government financing vehicles are spreading across China’s economy.”

The good news, Zhang adds, is that regulatory vigilance means a rerun of the 2008 US crisis is unlikely. The bad news is that debt strains are popping up in too many sectors for comfort.

In the case of Zhongzhi, its affiliated companies offer trust products and private “directed financing” wealth-management products to high-net-worth individuals.

These target aggressive returns — typically above 6% per year — in part by investing heavily in so-called “non-standard assets,” a residual category that spans products from trust loans to accounts receivables.

The end borrowers, Zhang explains, are often firms that can’t access traditional bank loans so they turn to these more expensive shadow-financing channels.

They include many property developers and off-balance sheet local government financing vehicles, which face serious debt problems this year.

“The elevated risk of this type of lending is reflected in returns on ‘collective’ trust products,” Zhang says, “which raise funds from more than one investor — the majority of trust products. These returns have remained elevated in recent years, even as bank lending rates and corporate bond yields have fallen.”

Goldman Sachs analyst Shuo Yang notes that “given the recent net asset value markdowns and redemptions, we expect growth in trust products to slow, which could result in tighter property financing conditions, and affect banks’ earnings and balance sheets.”

Those financing conditions are partly contingent upon the direction of central bank policies from Washington to Tokyo.

Economists at ING Bank wrote in a note to clients that “we think the Fed will indeed leave interest rates unchanged in September, but we don’t think it will carry through with that final forecast hike.” They worry that further rate hikes could heighten the chances of recession.

Yang’s Goldman colleague, chief economist Jan Hatzius, says the US Federal Reserve’s first rate cut after tightening 11 times in 17 months, will likely be in the second quarter of 2024.

By then, “we expect core personal consumption expenditure inflation to have fallen below 3% on a year-on-year basis and below 2.5% on a monthly annualized basis, and wage growth to have fallen below 4% year-on-year.”

Hatzius adds that “those thresholds for cutting align roughly with the annual forecasts in the [Fed’s] summary of economic projections and the conditions at the outset of the last cutting cycle motivated by an intent to normalize from a restrictive policy stance as inflation came down in 1995.”

In 2022, Hatzius adds, “We initially took the view that the Fed was unlikely to cut until a growth scare emerged, but we softened our stance earlier this year and have since assumed that a convincing decline in inflation would probably be enough to prompt cuts.”

The People’s Bank of China would like favor a halt in US interest rate hikes. Image: Twitter

This could relieve pressure on the People’s Bank of China to manage a widening gap between US and Chinese debt yields. In the meantime, though, analysts at Citigroup expect more trust defaults as headwinds bear down on China’s property sector. But in a recent note to clients, they stopped short at predicting of Lehman Brothers-like reckoning.

“As the problems in the property development sector are not new and have already been unfolding for several years, we think investors would have already psychologically prepared for the potential of defaults,” Citi writes.

Yet the opacity that surrounds the property sector is intensifying worries that Country Garden won’t be the last company to delay payment on private onshore bonds.

“Unlike banks, which have holding power and are able to roll over credit to wait for an eventual resolution, alternative financing channels such as trusts may default once trust investors are unwilling to roll over the products,” says analyst Katherine Lei at JPMorgan.

“The default events may lead to a chain reaction on developer financing, adding stress to privately-owned enterprise developers and their creditors,” Lei said.

The geopolitical scene is adding fresh headwinds for President Xi Jinping’s economy. Last week, US President Joe Biden banned US investors from investing in sections of China’s chips, quantum computing and artificial intelligence industries.

The step could upend efforts to lift Sino-US ties from their historic lows, adding to the reasons why investors are worried about China’s trajectory.

This latest step is “spectacularly bad timing for China,” says economist Eswar Prasad at Cornell University.  It comes as confidence is “falling, growth is stalling” and China “seems to be sliding into a downward spiral” amid deflation, low growth and lack of confidence all feeding on each other, Prasad says.

Analyst Gabriel Wildau at political risk advisory Teneo notes that “the investment restrictions largely mirror export controls already in place, including those that ban exports to China of machinery and software used to produce advanced semiconductors.”

Wildau adds that “unprecedentedly tough restrictions that the US Commerce Department issued in October – soon to be expanded – already rendered new US investment in advanced Chinese semiconductor production effectively impossible, since any such factory would need imported equipment covered by those restrictions.”

All this, warns Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, amounts to a “perfect storm” damaging foreign investors’ confidence in Asia’s biggest economy.

“From an FDI perspective, China is experiencing a perfect storm in which there are many factors now conspiring,” Eskelund told the South China Morning Post, referring to supply chain chaos, manufacturing disruptions, geopolitical tensions and slowing economic growth that “affect investor sentiment.”

In the second quarter of 2023, multinational companies turned “less optimistic” on China in terms of macro trends, consumption, labor and cost metrics, according to Morgan Stanley’s mainland sentiment Index.

Morgan Stanley analyst Laura Wang notes that this marks the first time since late 2021 when all four areas showed deterioration.

What’s needed, analysts say, is for Xi’s Communist Party to make good on its 2013 pledge to give market forces a “decisive” role in Beijing’s decision-making. This means, in part, taking steps to put the proverbial horse before the cart.

Over the last decade, Xi’s party tended to over-promise and under-deliver reform-wise.

Chinese President Xi Jinping on a large screen during a cultural performance as part of the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China on June 28, 2021. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Noel Celis

During the Xi era, China has opened equity markets ever wider to overseas investors. Beijing has done the same with government bonds, which are being added to a who’s-who of global indexes.

Trouble is, access to exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen often outpace the domestic reforms needed to ready China Inc for the global prime time.

China, as is often said, is working from its own playbook, one that even detractors grudgingly admit has a way of beating the odds. Myriad times since 1997, analysts, investors and shortsellers predicted a credit-and-debt-fueled crash that has yet to arrive.

Even so, there are certain laws of gravity that still apply to economies transitioning from state-driven and export-led growth to services, innovation and domestic consumption.

One of those laws states that developing economies should build credible and trusted markets before trillions of dollars of outside capital arrive.

This means regulators must methodically increase transparency, prod companies to raise their governance games, devise reliable surveillance mechanisms like credit rating players and strengthen the financial architecture before the world’s investors show up.

On Xi’s watch, China has become less transparent and the media less free. And this is the problem facing Xiconomics: too often China has believed it can build a world-class financial system after, not before, waves of foreign capital arrive.  

Follow William Pesek on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @WilliamPesek

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China’s Evergrande bankruptcy filing an expected part of debt restructuring plan, unlikely to have contagion effect on economy: Observers

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The property sector accounts for roughly a quarter of China’s economy.

Evergrande was once the country’s top-selling developer, but has become the face of China’s property sector debt crisis, after falling into a liquidity crisis in the middle of 2021. It is currently the most indebted property developer globally, with over US$300 billion in debt.

PART OF RESTRUCTURING PLAN

Experts told CNA that the bankruptcy filing is part of a debt restructuring plan rather than a signal of wider financial turmoil.

Mr William Ma, chief investment officer of GROW Investment Group, told CNA’s Asia Now on Friday that the filing was “not totally surprising”, and noted that there is currently a rebound and positive stock performance in the property sector.

“If we wind the clock back a little bit, actually Evergrande kind of suspended its equity trading since March last year, to buy time for the debt restructuring,” he said.

He said the company has been undergoing a debt restructuring plan since March this year, and also announced its earnings a few weeks ago.

“Filing Chapter 15, from my perspective, is part of the restructuring process. And actually this is positive news from a broader perspective because they are dealing with it in a global institutionalised way,” said Mr Ma.

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