China tensions ripping political rifts in the Philippines – Asia Times

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The most recent conflict in the South China Sea, in which Chinese maritime forces were forced to board and disarm Asian military personnel during a resupply mission, has strained the country’s once-unified administration and exposed fault lines.

According to what available information, the most recent Philippine rotation and resupply ( RoRe ) mission to the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, which sits a de facto Philippine military base atop the stricken BRP Sierra Madre vessel, was not coordinated by relevant government agencies.

The Philippine government’s contradictory statements following the unprecedented incident, which could have easily sparked an armed conflict after a Filipino serviceman lost a thumb in the melee, have highlighted divergent opinions at the highest levels of government regarding how to deal with China’s growing assertiveness in the nation’s Exclusive Economic Zone ( EEZ ).

The newly established National Maritime Council’s executive director, Lucas Bersamin, generally dismissed the tragedy as “probably a mistake or an incident” despite various best officials’ powerful words blaming it with details that were trickling in after days of delay.

Soon after, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr, yet, insisted that the government was not downplaying the “aggressive and improper usage of power” by China. He maintained that what took place was” ]a ] deliberate act of the Chinese officialdom to prevent]the Philippines ] from completing]its ] mission”.

Social divisions in the face of a political crisis are certainly not new to the Philippines, which is known for its chaotic and contentious democracy.

Filipino legislators publicly criticized the country’s political handling of the Scarborough Shoal problems, which led to China’s de facto annexation of the South China Sea.

During Rodrigo Duterte’s polarizing presidency, who openly criticized China’s proper favoritism while criticizing European allies over historical and human rights-related issues, there were also political and ideological divisions at play.

Duterte and even his own political allies in the then-governing PDP-Laban group fought at one point, most notably Manny Pacquiao, a former legislator who took a more vehement stance against China in the wake of the Whitsun Reef problems in 2021.

In a report pictures, former Chinese president Xi Jinping shows Rodrigo Duterte his approach to the then-President of the Philippines. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP

In the early times of his law, Marcos Jr., who ran and won easily on a “unity” system, managed to maintain a sense of coherence in his rates.

This was particularly true on the foreign policy before, as the Filipino president took a more confrontational attitude in the South China Sea, which was well-liked by both the Filipino populace and the protection establishment.

Over 90 % of Filipino voters favor a more assertive stance, including restoring control of the Philippine-claimed islands that are under the control of China, according to authoritative surveys.

Amid an uptick of nationalist sentiment, but, innovative politicians and optimistic officials, who were mostly motionless on Duterte’s pro- Beijing policies, began brandishing their patriotic credentials.

Members of Congress, the Senate, and different branches of the government began making extraordinary travel trips to disputed landmarks like Thitu Island, posing as patriotic leaders.

In addition, veteran politician Teodoro Jr., a long-time Duterte supporter who once offered to run for Sara Duterte for a possible joint solution in the 2022 primaries, took over the Department of National Defense.

He was given the same position by Duterte on numerous occasions while under the Gloria Macapagal Arroyo administration ( 2001-2010 ).

A quick and dramatic change in the world’s defence policy was overseen by Teodoro Jr., who was barely a year old when he was in charge of his old office. That included the introduction of the <a href="https://manilastandard.net/?p=314410145″>Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept ( CADC ), which aims to transform the Philippines into a modern and capable maritime power in the 21st century, the implementation of the Philippine-US Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement ( EDCA ), joint patrols and massive wargames with like-minded powers, and the rapid modernization of key Philippine military installations.

In the interim, senior generals like previous military chief and interior minister Eduardo Ano took over the National Security Council, and former Supreme Court main fairness Lucas Bersamin became Marcos Jr.’s executive director.

Romeo Brawner, a highly respected and well-known former spokesman for the Armed Forces of the Philippines ( AFP), was appointed as the country’s commander, while seasoned bureaucrats like Jonathan Malaya and Jay Tarriela, who have established leadership positions in the National Security Council and the Philippine Coast Guard, respectively, have taken the lead.

In many ways, Marcos Jr managed to assemble a “dream group” to handle his South China Sea scheme, which features a proactive” clarity initiative”, a superior public diplomacy campaign, robust defense diplomacy and extensive development of maritime security capabilities.

Yet, when China warned that its persistence was” stretched to the limit,” it began to use extremely aggressive “gray area” tactics to impose its will in the contested waters, the Philippines experienced a rude awakening.

First, China formally imposed fresh sea laws that made it possible for its coast guard to detach any “foreign trespassers” across its great nine-dash line region of claims across the South China Sea basin.

Even though the Philippine RoRe patrol vessel posed a direct threat of a military conflict, Chinese forces surged and then boarded it.

China’s growing appetite for risk and willingness to use its preponderance of force has revealed the limitations of the Philippines ‘ more muscular approach. On the one hand, Manila was forced to downplay the incident because it was perceived as having a reluctance to defend disputed maritime features.

The Joe Biden administration has shown little interest in offering direct military support in response to China’s non-kinetic use of force, which seriously injured at least one Filipino service member, despite a tough re-election campaign and numerous geopolitical flashpoints across the Eurasian landmass.

Additionally, the most recent incident has confirmed earlier rumors of rifts between National Security Advisor Ano and Defense Secretary Teodoro Jr. within the Philippine security apparatus.

Gilberto” Gibo” Teodoro Jr. holds his first press briefing as the newly appointed secretary of the Department of National Defense ( DND ) in Camp Aguinaldo, Quezon City on June 07, 2023. Image: X Screengrab

The Ano led by the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea (NTF- WPS), but the most recent RoRe mission reflected the defense chief’s unilateral prerogative and did not fully coordinate with other organizations.

Some critics have suggested that this was likely motivated by Teodoro Jr.’s political ambitions, who may be considering running for office in the near future. Some commentators have cited the difficulty of repressing a powerful adversary like China and the real differences between top leaders.

Teodoro Jr. has openly questioned the wisdom of diplomatic relations with China on numerous occasions, a surprisingly hardline position that contrasts with other Cabinet members.

” It’s not fruitful. In one of his interventions last year, Teodoro Jr. said in reference to China that there should be bilateral discussions, but only when we can demonstrate that they are genuine and when we can be certain, that is is my personal belief.

He continued, underscoring his perception of a results-oriented diplomatic approach by saying,” It must be based on fundamental principles and it must be based on sincerity, that it shall not be used merely as a weapon in order to restrain the Philippines.”

Other senior government figures, in contrast, have stayed in the game of engagement, with Executive Secretary Bersamin most recently arguing that diplomatic solutions to recent conflicts between Manila and Beijing.

The” transparency initiative” of the government, which was spearheaded by the Philippine Coast Guard in collaboration with the National Security Council, has been a major sticking point for the government’s future and has consistently and loudly exposed China’s aggressive tactics in the disputed waters.

Analysts now wonder if the Marcos Jr. administration will change its name and slurp China’s aggressive tactics for a new mode of vivendi in the disputing regions, particularly in regards to resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal.

The Phillippines ‘ ship, The Sierra Madre, served as Second Thomas Shoal’s guard station. Photo: US Naval Institute

Meanwhile, the Marcos Jr. administration has been under pressure from Beijing-friendly organizations in the Philippines to change their course following the most recent incident. Most notable is Duterte’s criticism of his successor for unnecessarily escalating tensions with China by more closely aligning with US interests.

Duterte has claimed that his Beijing-friendly foreign policy succeeded in ultimately preserving an element of stability in the South China Sea despite asserting Philippine claims in the disputed areas.

” We did n’t have a conflict with China then. We were permitted to fish both inside and outside the area. No one was bothering us and there was no territory issue, Duterte claimed in a recent episode of his television show, pressuring Marcos Jr. to adopt a more cordial attitude toward China.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian

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Cultural differences impede trade for most nations — but not China – Asia Times

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It’s a widely accepted notion among economists that cultural differences can pose a significant barrier to trade. The larger the cultural gap between two countries – judging by differences in language, customs, values and business norms – the more challenging and costly trade relations become. This is a recurring theme in research.

But there’s one big exception to the rule: China. As an applied economist with a keen interest in how culture influences trade, I’ve conducted several studies of the dynamic. In one such effort, two colleagues and I meticulously analyzed China’s trade relationships with nearly 90 countries over 16 years.

Our research uncovered a distinctive pattern: Unlike many other nations, cultural differences rarely influence the scale of China’s trade activities.

Bridging cultural gaps

Countries have various tools to minimize the effects of cultural differences on their trade. Cultural exchange programs, bilateral trade agreements and international trade shows have shown remarkable success in fostering mutual understanding, easing trade negotiations and overcoming cultural barriers.

However, these options are available to all countries. What makes China unique?

I suspect that China’s national trading strategy, involving state-backed export industries and substantial global infrastructure investment, is a big part of the answer.

By aligning itself with the economic development needs of its trading partners, China has been able to minimize the negative effects of cultural differences on its trade. It’s a strategy that has proved to be remarkably effective.

A closer examination of China’s trade ventures in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America — all regions with significant cultural differences from China — paints a vivid picture of this observation.

Xu Jianping, a Chinese official, stands behind a podium, speaking to a room full of professionals in business dress. Behind him, a sign in Chinese and English reads, in part,
Chinese official Xu Jianping speaks during the opening ceremony of a photography exhibition highlighting China-Africa cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative in Nairobi, Kenya, on March 22, 2024. Photo: Han Xu / Xinhua via Getty Images / The Conversation

Despite its cultural differences with nations on the African continent, each with its own unique traditions, languages and customs, China has built a multibillion-dollar trade network in the region that spans industries from mining to telecom.

China’s engagement in Africa is facilitated by a combination of local infrastructure investment, affordable technology provision and favorable loan terms. These partnerships are more about creating symbiotic relationships and less about efficiency. This facilitates market access and helps China to overcome cultural barriers.

In the Middle East, too, China has made significant inroads by aligning itself with the region’s development goals, such as those outlined in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the United Arab Emirates’ Centennial 2071.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative complements these long-term development plans, offering the capital investment and construction expertise needed to bring ambitious infrastructure projects to life.

China’s presence in Latin America has also grown substantially over the past decade. Despite the geographical and cultural distance, China has become one of the top trade partners for countries such as Brazil, Chile and Peru.

This relationship is built on reciprocity: Latin American countries supply raw materials and agricultural products in exchange for Chinese investment in the infrastructure and manufacturing sectors.

Again, this is a strategy that hinges on pragmatic economic interactions focused on mutual benefits and development goals.

Strategic adaptability

Some might argue that trading with China is an obvious choice due to its size and influence. The economic incentives include access to China’s population of over 1.4 billion and its significant role in global value chains, especially in electronics, textiles and machinery. As China’s influence in global markets grows, US companies also face competitive pressures to maintain their market positions.

However, China’s trade practices, frequently entangled with governmental intervention, potentially undermine market efficiency — an established economic objective — in numerous ways.

In international trade, market efficiency refers to the extent to which prices in the global market reflect all available information, allowing resources to be allocated optimally across countries.

China has been known to require foreign companies to transfer technology to local firms as a condition for market access. This practice may distort market efficiency by forcing companies to share proprietary technology rather than compete on a level playing field.

Intellectual property theft and insufficient protection of intellectual property rights in China have also been major concerns for Western companies. The lack of robust intellectual property enforcement can lead to inefficiencies, as it discourages innovation and investment by foreign firms who fear their inventions and technologies may be copied without adequate legal recourse.

Western companies also face various market-access barriers in China, such as joint venture requirements, limits on foreign ownership and regulatory hurdles. These barriers can prevent the efficient allocation of resources and limit competition and innovation, resulting in a less efficient market overall.

Despite these concerns, Western firms continue to do business with China.

China’s adeptness in transcending cultural barriers, combined with Western firms’ continued engagement, pose a significant challenge for Western economies, notably the United States’. The challenge is heightened as the US maintains a focus on traditional efficiency approaches in forging trade relationships across diverse regions such as Africa, Latin America and the Middle East.

Since traditional market efficiency approaches might not always suffice, Western economies may need to reconsider their strategies.

Bedassa Tadesse is Professor of Economics, University of Minnesota Duluth

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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‘Hysterical’: The women calling out doctors’ gaslighting

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4 days ago

By Hannah Ritchie, BBC News, Sydney

Heidi Metcalf Heidi Metcalf Heidi Metcalf

There’s a ram, or more particularly a minute, that came to define Heidi Metcalf’s following birth.

It was n’t saying goodbye to her husband and baby before being wheeled into an operating room or the heart attack she thought she was having while she lay there on the table.

It was when a man doctor “ripped the uterus” out of her system, without word or warning.

A caregiver, Ms Metcalf knows the intervention- while greatly unpleasant- was needed. She was n’t force it out effortlessly, which was causing potentially dangerous bleeding.

But she had n’t” seen or met this man before”, and she ca n’t get past the fact that her consent, during one of the most traumatic experiences of her life, “meant so little”.

” It felt like a contravention because I needed to feel connected to what was happening to my system rather than just a passive observer.”

After the federal government assembled a team of experts to combat what it refers to as “medical misogyny,” Ms. Metcalf is one of the dozens of American women who have come forth to share their stories.

A remarkable two- thirds of females in the country have so far been the subject of sex bias or discrimination in care.

And some say it is taking place when they’re at their most resilient, such as during close investigations, or like Ms Metcalf, while in labour. Other people report having their anguish dismissed or extremely misdiagnosed.

For this article, the BBC spoke with six people. They shared experiences of being called “anxious”, “pushy” or perhaps “hysterical” while seeking care for a range of severe symptoms.

Additionally, they said they thought their anguish was always taken more seriously by the people in their lives.

‘ I just do n’t feel safe’

Nadiah Akbar was once told by a physician in Singapore that the extreme exhaustion she was experiencing was a result of the” pressure” of being a busy family. Eventually, it would be determined that it was thyroid cancer.

Nadiah Akbar Nadiah Akbar Nadiah Akbar

Years later, at a Melbourne doctor, employees discovered a pass drive in her back and a cartilage tear in her hip socket while she was in remission and had immigrated to Australia.

Rather, they suggested the terrible pain may be linked to “depression” or being “overtired”. Ms. Akbar was forced to pay for two pricey MRI images out of bag so that she could be taken seriously.

” ‘ Oh, it’s little.’ I’ve heard that speech so many times… She claims that hearing that is “disgusting as a human being.”

” It takes a lot of energy for you to maintain advocating for yourself, and that’s the piece that’s worrying- a lot of people really stop”.

After years of having symtoms of what would later be confirmed as a traumatic brain injury dismissed, Laura has requested that her name be changed.

” I do n’t get healthcare without my partner with me, that’s a blanket rule”, she says, explaining that she feels her concerns are taken “more seriously” when voiced by a man.

” I just do n’t feel safe, engaging with the system, because when you’re young and you’re told over and over that something is all in your head, it’s easy to believe it”.

Both people say they are coming ahead to share their experiences in order to capitalize on the promise of change right now, like so many others across the nation.

The national committee tasked with examining these issues, led by associate health secretary Ged Kearney, says its work will be guided by their stories, along with those of many others who are at risk in First Nations, LGBTQ , and immigrant communities.

Her group’s responsibilities are extensive, and extensive areas of focus have already been identified.

However, it’s not easy to find a way to untangle gender inequality in medicine, and Australia’s efforts may include far-reaching effects as other countries look to changes.

Ged Kearney Ged Kearney with her daughter and granddaughterGed Kearney

‘ A one- sizing- fits- all strategy’

The issue is not simply that “everyone in care has some predetermined plan against women,” Ms. Kearny claims.

Instead, it’s that because it was “delivered by and designed for” males for centuries, discrimination has been woven into the fabric of contemporary treatments.

Women’s wellness- by contrast – was generally rooted in misconception and harmful gender stereotypes.

” Hysteria”, a today- former health name, was a capture- all diagnosis for females presenting with an array of symptoms, meaning their pain was attributed to psychological causes, rather than natural ones.

However, some people claim that they still experience gaslit, disbeliever, and patronization in clinical settings now.

And the issue is made worse by a lack of diversification in medical research.

According to Professor Robyn Norton, a public health expert, more than 70 % of members in early-stage clinical trials are also white men, whereas adult cells and animals are used as normal in the facility.

The outcomes are then applied to women, transgender, trans and female- different people, causing issues when it comes to their care, analysis and how their symptoms are understood, Prof Norton says.

She describes it as a “one- dimension- fits- all, adult- oriented” approach to healthcare that has created big knowledge gaps.

The Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Protein Research conducted an analysis in 2019 that found that, among the 770 diseases they studied, women were diagnosed later than men, with an average lag of four years, using data from the entire Danish population.

In Australia, research from the University of Sydney in 2018 discovered that women who were hospitalized for a serious heart attack were half as likely as men to receive appropriate care and that they died twice as quickly six months after discharge.

Scientists have warned that a further roadblock is the persistent underinvestment in women’s health issues.

Endometriosis is cited as a significant example. There is no cure, and it typically takes seven years for patients to be diagnosed, despite having an impact on roughly 10 % of reproductive-age women and girls worldwide.

Despite growing evidence that it’s a medical fallacy, a recent study found that 89 % of Australian women were still receiving advice from health professionals that pregnancy would relieve their symptoms.

According to experts, such disparities are being observed and investigated globally, with nations comparing notes on possible solutions.

The UK, for one, recently announced measures aimed at closing the “gender health gap” in its system. Additionally, First Lady Jill Biden has spearheaded an initiative to improve funding and research into women’s health in the US.

Bonney Corbin/Australian Women's Health Alliance Bonney CorbinBonney Corbin/Australian Women’s Health Alliance

According to Ms. Kearny, Australia is already advancing.

Her government has established 22 endometriosis and pelvic pain clinics in the past 12 months to enhance care and diagnosis.

In order to increase universal access to reproductive healthcare, the nation’s drug regulator removed restrictions on the prescribing and dispensing of medical abortion pills.

And at a new research facility Prof. Norton is leading, researchers will soon be able to examine how prevalent diseases are present in female, intersex, and gender diverse populations.

She believes that the work of her team will” catalyze the kind of change that could lead to Australia becoming a leader in this area.”

There’s also been some investment in women’s health in the latest national budget. Almost A$ 100m ($ 66m, £52m ) has been set aside for things like reducing the out- of- pocket costs associated with gynaecological conditions, as well as studies into menopause, pregnancy loss and fertility. All of these issues have historically received little funding.

However, while supporters like Bonney Corbin, the chair of Australia’s Women’s Health Alliance and a member of the council, have praised the cash injection, they claim it is insufficient and that state governments should step up as well.

More than just funding breast and uterine health issues, a gender perspective on healthcare is important. We need to look at women’s bodies on the whole”, she explains.

In the coming months, Ms Kearney’s advisory body will release its first set of major reform recommendations.

She claims that it has no intention of promoting “tick-box” measures that tinker around the edges.

Instead, she claims the long-term objective is to” create a blueprint to build a healthcare system that actually works for everyone.”

Despite the assistant health minister’s involvement at this point, Ms. Corbin says, whether the advice will lead to lasting change is still a question.

If it does n’t though, she hints that there could be public backlash.

” We’ve mobilized a lot of women in this process – now we need to take action.”

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Afghanistan: Talks with the Taliban – no women allowed

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According to officials, two weeks of talks between the international community and the Armenian Taliban have been fruitful.

Since they seized power three years ago, the Taliban, whose government no land recognizes, were the first to attend the meetings in Doha.

At the Taliban administration’s conviction, no civil society representatives were in the area with the Taliban leaders, meaning no girls from Afghanistan were included, prompting condemnation from rights organizations and activists.

On Tuesday, UN representatives met with Armenian civil society organizations informally.

Has Afghanistan’s situation changed in recent days as diplomats and journalists have fled the sprawling air-conditioned ballrooms in the Qatari money?

There were no great announcements, no large advances, no solutions- but finally none were expected- from the organisers or participants. Otherwise, the Taliban authorities and diplomats seemed slowly and cautiously optimistic.

The voice was “respectful”, “engaged”, “frank”, according to different officials the BBC spoke to. The most frequent word was” this is a process”.

There were no agreements gained, nor vows won from the Taliban group, led by director Zabihullah Mujahid. I inquired about what the Taliban government may provide.

” When we go ahead we will see what they]the international community ] want and what we can do based on Sharia law”, he told us. ” We will not discuss it with anyone who is against Sharia laws.” Whatever is permitted by Sharia, we may resolve it. We will see where it will get us and how far we will improve as it goes along. It is a process that will continue.

The private sector and counter-narcotics were the two matters on the plan, which were more straightforward to discuss than issues like women’s roles or human rights.

The Taliban continued to hold onto their position that this was an inner issue in the end.

” We do n’t want to discuss these sorts of issues between other countries. We did find a solution for it up home”, said Zabihullah Mujahid.

When the BBC told him there had been no options for nearly three years, he responded,” We are no ignoring it, we are working on it.” Sharia law is helping us find a way to solve it.

The UN itself referred to Afghanistan’s current state as “gender apartheid,” in which cases include those where women and girls are unable to attend secondary school, visit gardens or gyms, or carry specific jobs.

” It is not just an inner concern and we have made that clear to them”, said Rosemary DiCarlo, the UN’s lead in these deals.

She cited the various agreements that Afghanistan signed prior to the Taliban’s annexation in August 2021 that included animal rights.

” It does n’t matter if the government changes, they are still party to those”.

” I think they are ready to talk about some of these things ]women’s rights ], but they are not ready to move”, Tomas Niklasson, special envoy of the European Union for Afghanistan, told the BBC.

” I am cheerful that things will change on children’s rights, but I’m not sure about the time view”.

What made him enthusiastic?

” I’m surprised to see the endurance Afghans still use to resist,” he said, adding after a moment. ” Promise is not always a logical thing”.

Although some chose to ban it and none of those who attended did not want to speak to the media, the UN did arrange for a separate appointment to take place on Tuesday with civil society protesters.

Some nations, including China and Russia, chose not to attend the conference, according to the list of guests provided by the UN. The UN informed us that various ambassadors who were n’t present had plans for travel.

Although many of the places that attended now met the Taliban bilaterally and told the BBC that that would remain, there is no set time for the next meeting of this kind. All the officers we spoke to believed that more discussion and interaction would have taken place in the upcoming times.

After almost three years of the Taliban government in power, the ambassadors we met agreed that much would change in Afghanistan without an effort to engage, at least in the areas with some overlap.

” We felt we had to begin somewhere”, Ms DiCarlo said in Tuesday’s closing media event.

Where does these discussions lead, remains to be seen.

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US Supreme Court immunity ruling opens a Pandora’s Box – Asia Times

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The US Supreme Court ruled on Monday (July 1) that former president Donald Trump is entitled to some level of immunity from criminal prosecution, a decision that may effectively delay the trial of the case against him on charges of plotting to subvert the 2020 election.

The ruling introduced the unprecedented principle that any US president can legally subvert US institutions. In turn, the verdict has changed the US as well as the terms of its competition with Russia and China.

Did the Supreme Court ruling open a Pandora’s box for the US and the wider world? Looking at it from Rome, it’s all very puzzling and can spin Machiavellian thoughts. A flurry of public criticisms ensued; here are just a few samples:

“The Supreme Court’s conservative supermajority fundamentally altered American democracy on Monday, awarding the President a sweeping and novel immunity when he weaponizes the power of his office for corrupt, violent, or treasonous purposes. This near-insurmountable shield against prosecution for crimes committed while in office upends the structure of the federal government, elevating the presidency to a king-like status high above the other branches.”[i]

“Today’s decision to grant former presidents criminal immunity reshapes the institution of the Presidency. It makes a mockery of the principle, foundational to our Constitution and system of Government, that no man is above the law. Relying on little more than its own misguided wisdom about the need for “bold and unhesitating action” by the President… the Court gives former President Trump all the immunity he asked for and more … The main takeaway of today’s decision is that all of a President’s official acts, defined without regard to motive or intent, are entitled to immunity that is “at least … presumptive,” and quite possibly “absolute.”[ii]

“The Constitution, after all, states that the president “shall be commander in chief of the Army and Navy of the United States.” So, if presidential authority is “conclusive and preclusive” when presidents exercise their constitutionally granted powers, the Court appears to have ruled that yes, Trump could order the military to assassinate one of his political opponents. And nothing can be done to him for it.”[iii]

Trump’s advisor and ideologue Steve Bannon had just declared:[iv]

“Project 2025 and others are working on it — to immediately focus on immigration, the forever wars and on the fiscal and the financial. And simultaneously the deconstruction of the administrative state and going after the complete, total destruction of the deep state. In the first 100 days — this is going to be different than ’16 — we will have 3,000 political appointees ready to go.”

On July 1, in a televised speech, US President Joe Biden took up the challenge and described the ruling as a “dangerous precedent.” Biden said the judgment undermined the “rule of law” and was “a terrible disservice” to Americans.

So what is to stop Biden from acting against Trump’s plans to subvert the US? Biden might justify his actions “to save the Republic” and go scot-free.

One could argue that, as the Democrats risk losing the vote, if Biden doesn’t act he could usher in a dictatorship; if he does, America won’t be the same again.

So, the ruling has already deeply changed America. If Biden doesn’t act, what guarantees are there that Trump, or any other future president, won’t do it either?

As former Chinese leader Mao might say, the US president is now “wu fa, wu tian“—bound by no law or higher authority.

Between 2015 and 2016, after a series of conversations with Angelo Codevilla, I concluded that Trump would win. In early 2020, when I saw that Trump was underestimating Covid-19, I believed he would lose. If, after the loss, he had conceded defeat, he could potentially be president again now.

Trump’s statement, essentially arguing, “If I don’t win, Biden rigged the elections,” destroys any sense of democracy and undermines the US’s most significant assets – its system and values.

The Supreme Court ruling has opened the gates to fears that America could be lost if Trump wins.

Trump’s followers argue there was vote rigging in 2020. But vote shenanigans have existed since voting began; in ancient Greece, some believed drawing lots was fairer than voting.

John Kennedy was elected amid suspected vote rigging but Richard Nixon conceded. George Bush Junior’s first election win was not clear, yet Al Gore conceded.

What is at stake is the system and the values it projects worldwide. Without it, American leaders would be like any other, and Russian President Vladimir Putin or Chinese President Xi Jinping might be considered better than Biden or Trump combined. Without that system, Putin or Xi could undermine America and turn the world upside down.

Did the Supreme Court fully consider the broad implications of its ruling? It grants a blank check to Biden, who, over the weekend, was reportedly considering withdrawing from the election due to his poor performance in the debate with Trump.

Yet now, until he steps down from office, Biden could do whatever he wants. This could last for an unspecified time – seven months if not re-elected, or four months, followed by four more years with re-election.

Then, if Trump’s January 6, 2020, actions are not considered insurrection, Biden’s future actions won’t be judged as such either.

In other words, Trump, to save himself from a relatively small danger, opened himself up to much larger jeopardy. What will happen to him if Biden decides to act on his new powers granted by the Supreme Court?

Why shouldn’t Biden prevent a publicly announced plan to subvert American institutions, as detailed by Bannon? It would be a dereliction of his duties not to.

Being old and frail, Biden might even be a better guarantee of democracy in the US, as he is unlikely to extend his hold on power after the next four years.

These are not mere hypothetical scenarios; they are realities. The Supreme Court has handed Biden an incredible and unprecedented instrument. He will be criticized regardless of what he chooses to do with it.

Thus, he may only choose the lesser evil. Then, perhaps it’ll start a path to restore US values and democracy.

[i] https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/07/supreme-court-john-roberts-opinion-trump-immunity-nightmare.htm

[ii] https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/supreme-court-gives-trump-permission-to-stand-above-law.html

[iii] https://www.vox.com/scotus/358292/supreme-court-trump-immunity-dictatorship

[iv] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/01/opinion/steve-bannon-trump.html

This essay first appeared on Appian Institute and is republished with permission. Read the original here.

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Senate election results delayed

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Election Commission still sifting through numerous complaints about winners’ qualifications

PUBLISHED : 2 Jul 2024 at 21:04

Senate election results delayed
Votes are counted at the venue for the final round of the Senate election at Impact Muang Thong Thani in Nonthaburi on June 26. (Photo: Nutthawat Wichieanbut)

The Election Commission (EC) did not announce the official results of the Senate election as originally planned on Tuesday, as more time is needed to handle numerous complaints about dubious qualifications of some senators-elect, according to an EC source.

Since the complaints concern qualifications and alleged ineligibility, the EC needs to be extra careful and ensure that it strictly follows the law, said the source.

“We promise that we will get this task done as soon as possible while ensuring fairness for all sides,” said the same source.

When asked whether the poll body would announce results on Wednesday, the source said: “Maybe after that.”

The EC has so far reviewed more than a thousand complaints received about suspected ineligibility of a number of senators-elect and alleged violations of the election law, according to an informed source.

The law governing the Senate poll stipulates that the EC must wait for five days before it announces the certified result. There is no stipulation on the maximum number of days that can elapse between the final vote and the certification of results, explained the source.

The five-day period is for receiving complaints about the poll, in which 200 senators were elected and another 100 candidates held in reserve in case any senators-elect end up being disqualified later.

A former senatorial candidate on Monday urged the Supreme Administrative Court to suspend the announcement of the election result pending its ruling on the poll agency’s handling of the Senate race.

More than 45,000 candidates were approved to compete, and thus to cast votes, in the complex three-stage election. The final results indicated that the Bhumjaithai Party was among the few groups that managed to figure out the intricacies of the process well enough to exploit them.

A nation-leading 14 senators-elect come from Buri Ram, the party’s longtime stronghold. Eighty senators in all come from 12 provinces where Bhumjaithai has MPs.

Parit Wacharasindhu, a party-list MP and spokesman for the opposition Move Forward Party, said the EC had better announce the result as soon as possible so that the legislative and other duties of the new Upper House could resume.

Among these important responsibilities is passing bills that are required to allow the rewrite of the constitution, said Mr Parit, who is also chairman of the House committee on political development.

He also said that all sides, including those who were raising doubts over the qualifications of a number of successful senatorial candidates, should look at the bigger picture and acknowledge the importance of having new Senate in place.

“I think everyone has gone through the same rules designed under the 2017 constitution. So, if there is no proof of [those speculated] violations of the Senate election law, for me all successful candidates equally won the race under the same election process,” he said.

Prof Prinya Thaewanarumitkul, a law lecturer at Thammasat University, also agreed that the EC should announce the results first while continuing its investigations into any misdeeds.

The longer the newly elected Senate isn’t certified, the longer  the caretaker Senate — appointed by the military-led government in 2019 – will remain in office, he said.

Caretaker senator Somchai Swangkarn, on the other hand, urged the EC to strictly follow Sections 42 and 59 of the organic law on the composition of the Senate, which stipulates that the poll body is duty-bound and holds the authority to ensure the Senate election is “correct, honest and fair”.

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PM ‘will consider’ easing booze sale rule

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Struggling restaurants ask government to lift afternoon ban

PUBLISHED : 2 Jul 2024 at 20:22

PM ‘will consider’ easing booze sale rule
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin arrives in Nakhon Ratchasima for a cabinet meeting on Tuesday. (Photo: Thai Khu Fah Facebook)

NAKHON RATCHASIMA – The government has promised to consider lifting the afternoon ban on alcohol sales to help ease the plight of restaurant operators who say the poor economy is starting to hurt them.

Representatives of the Restaurant Business Club on Tuesday handed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin a letter asking the government to help restaurants survive tough economic times.

They said operating costs and prices of ingredients continued to rise even as the economy was faltering, forcing many businesses to close down.

One of the measures they are calling for is an end to a 52-year-old rule that prohibits sales of alcohol between 2pm and 5pm.

“I will consider it [the lifting of the afternoon ban on alcohol sales] … The government is trying to promote tourism, hoping they will also earn more income,” Mr Srettha said on Tuesday, referring to restaurant operators.

He made the remarks as the cabinet gathered for a mobile meeting on Tuesday at Nakhon Ratchasima Rajabhat University.

Sorathep Rojpotjanaruch, head of the Restaurant Business Club, said the group wanted the government to introduce urgent relief measures before more businesses close down.

Operating costs have increased by 50% while prices of ingredients such as milk, eggs and vegetables have risen by 20-30%, he said.

“The economy has been sluggish, and consumer purchasing power has declined. The cost and prices of ingredients, such as vegetables, have gone up, on top of expensive electricity fees,” he said.

In 2019, restaurant businesses nationwide earned an estimated 420 billion baht in combined revenue, about 7% of gross domestic product (GDP). This revenue was initially expected to grow by another 4-5% this year. But since April, growth has slowed, and restaurants continue to close, Mr Sorathep said.

“Small-scale vendors and food shops along streets are at risk of going out of business as they don’t have sufficient financial resources to stay afloat for long periods,” he said.

In addition to lifting the afternoon alcohol sales ban, Mr Sorathep said the group proposed reducing the building and land tax rates to ease the burden on businesses.

Members also want the government to devise measures to help businesses run by small and medium-sized enterprises, he said.

For example, he said, customers who ask for tax invoices from restaurants could be allowed to claim up to 20,000 baht in tax deductions, while business operators could use the bills for tax deductions of up to 100,000 baht each.

Another proposal is a cash handout to give people 2,000 baht each to spend over a three-month period — but only on food through the Pao Tang app, said Mr Sorathep.

The ban on retail sales of alcohol between 2pm and 5pm is not covered in the Alcoholic Beverage Control Act. It was announced by the coup regime of Thanom Kittikachorn in 1972 to deal with officials drinking during work hours, and has never been rescinded.

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Ukraine’s debt negotiations could decide the war – Asia Times

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As Ukraine fights against Russian invasion, it faces a battle on two fronts: military and financial. Global attention understandably focuses on battlefield developments, where Russian troops are pushing toward Ukraine’s second city, Kharkov. But Ukraine is simultaneously experiencing financial struggles.

With its economy damaged by war and the year’s defense cost estimated to be US$54.4 billion, Ukraine is on the brink of defaulting on $22.8 billion in debt. For Ukraine, debt is not an accounting exercise – it represents the ability to defend its sovereignty and secure its future.

At the onset of the war, private investors led by JP Morgan agreed to freeze Ukraine’s debt repayments. That agreement is set to expire in August. Both Ukraine and its lenders are racing to reach a last-minute debt deal to avoid default.

These debt restructuring talks are common between states and investors, but they usually last years and rarely occur in the context of war. At present, both sides remain far apart in their negotiations. Ukraine is demanding a 40% reduction in its debt obligations and investors are willing to take only a 20% loss – known in financial circles as a “haircut.”

Ukraine faces a trade-off in its debt negotiations. On the one hand, securing a larger debt reduction, or even an outright default, could free up substantial fiscal resources in the short term. This would allow Ukraine to redirect funds from debt payments to immediate war-related needs.

However, the long-term consequences of such a decision could be severe, with higher borrowing costs and longer periods of exclusion from capital markets. The outcome of these negotiations will shape not only Ukraine’s immediate defense capabilities but also its long-term economic resilience.

A country’s ability to access credit markets plays an important role in determining the outcome of a war. In previous research, which was published in 2013, I found that states with lower borrowing costs are significantly more likely to win their wars.

Debt allows states to mobilize more resources, more quickly than they otherwise could. The cheaper the debt and the easier it is to access, the more resources that country can mobilize for its war effort.

Because of the importance of debt for war, states involved in wars rarely default. The risk of losing access to credit markets is usually too high. There are, however, some notable exceptions.

Russia technically defaulted on its debt shortly after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 because sanctions made it impossible to make debt payments. And Saddam Hussein’s Iraq defaulted amid the war between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s. But both countries had substantial natural resource wealth to draw upon, a luxury Ukraine doesn’t have.

The Russian and Iraq exceptions highlight another crucial factor in wartime finance: the nature of a country’s political system. As autocracies, Putin’s Russia and Saddam’s Iraq could impose restrictive economic measures during wartime.

The Russian government, for example, has imposed controls that make it difficult for exporters and foreign companies operating in the country to take money out of Russia.

By contrast, the Ukrainian government has to be sensitive to the domestic political pressures of war financing. Measures like those adopted in Russia would probably spark political discontent in Ukraine.

Debt allows democratic leaders to mobilize resources without relying on unpopular fiscal strategies. However, facing the prospect of reduced access to debt, Ukraine has reverted to divisive tax policies that have raised the tax burden on individuals while cutting social spending.

Taxes are important to the war effort but they risk upsetting the necessary domestic support to continue fighting. And the Ukrainian government has been accused by journalists and international watchdog groups of being too restrictive in its response to domestic discontent.

The Ukrainian domestic intelligence agency allegedly surveilled an investigative media team in their hotel rooms.

Ukraine’s financial future

There’s some good news for Ukraine’s leadership though. After much delay, US Congress passed a military aid package worth $60 billion in the spring. At the same time, the UK provided its largest aid package to Ukraine, worth more than $3.8 billion for 2024.

More recently, the G7 (which consists of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and US) agreed to use Russia’s frozen assets to finance a new $50 billion loan to Ukraine.

These additional financial resources are needed for Ukraine’s war effort. But they do not solve the immediate debt problems. The UK and US aid packages are earmarked for military equipment only and cannot be used for budgetary support. The G7 loan will be more flexible, but that money is not expected to be delivered until later this year.

Ukraine must balance the immediate needs of war financing with long-term economic considerations and domestic political pressures. The stakes could not be higher. The terms Ukraine secures in debt negotiations will affect not just its ability to fund the current war effort, but also its capacity to rebuild once the conflict ends.

Patrick E Shea is Senior Lecturer in International Relations and Global Governance, University of Glasgow

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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