Chalermchai to quit key Democrat post

Chalermchai: Coy on Pheu Thai link
Chalermchai: Coy on Pheu Thai link

Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister Chalermchai Sri-on said yesterday he has decided to step down as Democrat secretary-general when the party selects its new leader and executives on July 13.

Whether or not the party will select a young person to become its new leader, he said that would be for a party committee to decide at the planned general assembly.

Jurin Laksanawisit announced he was quitting as leader following the unofficial results of the May 14 election, in which the country’s oldest party won far fewer House seats than expected.

And when asked how plausible it would be for the party to form a political alliance with Pheu Thai in the event that the Move Forward Party fails to garner enough support from members of parliament to form a new coalition, Mr Chalermchai simply said that such a deal would have to be backed by a formal party resolution.

As for himself, Mr Chalermchai said he will become a general member when he quits as secretary-general.

He also denied rumours that the Democrats have held talks with Pheu Thai and agreed to join the latter’s alleged bid to form the new government, saying: “No, don’t believe them [rumours].”

Deputy Interior Minister Naris Khamnurak, a former Democrat MP for Phatthalung, also dismissed rumours of a secret deal, saying the Democrats make all important decisions through a formal party resolution. No such proposal has been made or discussed, he said. He also said the party must wait until the Election Commission has certified all 25 of its elected MPs, as they make up 70% of its new board members.

As for a future overhaul, he said the party will have to examine the reasons it won so few House seats before deciding upon the extent to which younger members would be promoted into executive or even leadership roles.

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Senate chief denies PM vote meddling

Pornpetch: In no position to instruct
Pornpetch: In no position to instruct

Senate Speaker Pornpetch Wichitcholchai has denied having instructed senators on who to vote for in the prime ministerial poll, adding that the Move Forward Party (MFP) has not approached him to support its leader Pita Limjaroenrat becoming premier yet.

Mr Pornpetch on Tuesday downplayed reports of MFP supporters pressuring senators into backing Mr Pita’s prime ministerial bid, saying the pressure only came from social media. He said he had never instructed senators on how they should vote in the poll and that the MFP had not sent anyone to ask him to persuade senators to vote for Mr Pita.

Mr Pornpetch said he only serves as the deputy parliament president, so he is in no position to give any instructions to senators.

The House Speaker assumes the role of ex-officio parliament president, while the Senate Speaker serves as the ex-officio deputy.

He added that he has not even discussed the PM vote with other senators, saying he believed the senators were mature enough to make their own decisions and had the country’s best interests at heart.

“The senators are independent and have their own opinions. But being independent does not mean they will do anything at will.

“They must take into account the country’s best interests. I believe they will put the country first,” Mr Pornpetch said.

He also said that he is ready to work with a new prime minister and that the new premier should have what it takes to lead the country.

Asked about a plan by MFP supporters to hold a rally outside parliament to pressure senators into voting for Mr Pita, Mr Pornpetch said the senators still have two months or so to make a decision. First, the Election Commission will have to officially endorse winning election candidates before the House of Representatives convenes to select a new prime minister.

Under the constitution, the 250 senators appointed by the now-defunct coup-engineer, the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), are allowed to join MPs in electing a prime minister in parliament. It will be the last time these senators will co-elect a prime minister. After the 2019 election, they joined MPs in voting for Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha to return as prime minister.

The constitution stipulates the Senate would serve a five-year transitional term following the 2019 election. It ends next year.

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MFP's Pita prepares for power

Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat, centre left, and Pheu Thai Party leader Cholnan Srikaew make a heart-shaped gesture at a press conference to affirm a commitment by the eight-party coalition group to form a government together despite the unsettled issue of which party will have final say over the appointment of the new House Speaker. (Pattarapong Chatpattarasill)
Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat, centre left, and Pheu Thai Party leader Cholnan Srikaew make a heart-shaped gesture at a press conference to affirm a commitment by the eight-party coalition group to form a government together despite the unsettled issue of which party will have final say over the appointment of the new House Speaker. (Pattarapong Chatpattarasill)

The eight-party alliance led by the Move Forward Party (MFP) has formed a committee to prepare for a transition of power in a move labelled by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as “inappropriate”.

MFP leader and prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat on Tuesday announced the establishment of a “transitional coordination committee” following a meeting of the prospective coalition at the Prachachart Party’s headquarters.

The leaders of all eight parties agreed to establish the committee with Mr Pita as chairman.

In addition to the transitional coordination committee, seven working panels were also set up to deal with electricity, diesel, and energy prices; drought and El Nino issues; problems in the three southernmost border provinces; constitutional amendments; environmental concerns and PM2.5 pollution; the grassroots economy and SMEs; and drug-related problems.

Each panel consists of representatives from the eight parties, and will hold regular meetings to provide updates on their progress to the transitional coordination committee.

“This collaborative approach aims to foster a consensus among all, enabling the formulation of comprehensive policies to address the country’s challenges and consolidate them into joint policies,” he said.

The finalised policies will be announced in parliament and implemented by both the executive and legislative branches, Mr Pita said.

“Our work is proceeding smoothly, and we are committed to working together to solve the problems of the people to the best of our abilities.

“Furthermore, the allocation of positions within the executive branch will always prioritise the people’s interests,” Mr Pita said.

Gen Prayut, however, when asked by reporters about the MFP’s transitional plans, criticised the move and warned against the scheduling of any meetings with representatives of government agencies.

Even though the MFP won the election, it’s not in government yet.

“That is inappropriate,” Gen Prayut said. “Government organisations are still under the present government. They will prepare information for the transition in the future.”

Asked if Mr Pita was acting like another prime minister by meeting key figures from the business community and other groups, Gen Prayut said he did not have such a perception.

“I’m not looking at it. I’m not starting any conflict with anyone. As I have told you, we should adhere to democratic rules,” he said.

The prime minister said that the MFP could meet representatives from the private sector, but it was inappropriate to meet with government organisations for the time being.

Asked about foreign investors’ reactions after the election, Gen Prayut said that they have been waiting for the new government to take shape.

“Several politicians said they would do many things [if they become the new government], and they are expected to revise [the current government’s projects], which makes me worry because several of the projects are already proceeding nicely,” Gen Prayut said.

The current government has been trying to attract foreign investors as part of efforts to boost the economy and GDP, Gen Prayut continued, adding that the new government should attach similar importance to encouraging investment from abroad.

“If any damage arises, there is nothing I can do because I will have left office by that time,” Gen Prayut said.

Asked about the intention to replace military conscription with voluntary recruitment under the MoU signed last week by the MFP-led coalition, Gen Prayut, who concurrently serves as the Defence Minister, would only say: “It is up to them.”

The MFP and its partners recently signed an MoU agreeing on a joint policy platform.

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North Korea launches rocket after satellite warning

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North Korea has launched a rocket shortly after announcing it planned to send up its first space satellite, sources in Japan and South Korea say.

Japan issued a warning to residents in the southern prefecture of Okinawa but later reported there was no danger of the rocket hitting its territory.

North Korea said earlier it planned to launch a satellite by 11 June to monitor US military activities.

Japan said it was ready to shoot down anything that threatened its territory.

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Fixed rates for home loans are down and likely to fall further, experts say

SINGAPORE: Interest rates on home loans have been declining since the start of the year and observers expect the trend to continue.

Fixed-rate home loans – which have interest rates that remain unchanged throughout a lock-in period – shot up past 4 per cent last year in Singapore, as the US Federal Reserve went on a rate-hike race to quell surging inflation. 

With the Fed poised to pause or even reverse policy tightening, banks have been cutting their rates on these loans, industry experts said.

DBS, Singapore’s largest lender, is offering fixed-rate packages at 3.75 per cent a year with lock-in periods of two to five years, a check of its website on Tuesday (May 30) showed. 

This is 0.5 percentage points lower than the 4.25 per cent offered by the bank in January.

At OCBC, two- and three-year fixed-rate mortgages are priced at a “promotional” 3.8 per cent. These loans were previously set at 4.25 per cent and 3.9 per cent respectively in January.

The rate for the bank’s one-year loan remains unchanged at 4.3 per cent.

UOB did not provide its rates when approached by CNA, but property portals listed its two- and three-year loans at 4 per cent per annum, down from last year’s peak of 4.5 per cent.

Among foreign lenders, HSBC has lowered its two-year fixed-rate mortgage to 3.6 per cent, while the three-year equivalent is set at 3.5 per cent.

Both packages were previously offered at 4.25 per cent in January.

Mortgage advisory firm Mortgage Master said loan rates are going as low as 3.38 per cent, although it declined to say which bank was offering the rate, citing privileged information.

“With inflation and employment data in the US softening, the US Federal Reserve has indicated a less hawkish stance,” said Mr Paul Wee, vice-president of PropertyGuru’s finance division. “Hence, it is likely that fixed rates will soften further.”

NO CHANGE IN FLOATING LOAN RATES

Fixed-rate mortgages tend to see bigger adjustments as banks weigh their hedging costs, experts said.

Hedging costs depend on market expectations for interest rates, with the cost going up as rates rise and vice versa, said Mr Wee.

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CNA Explains: Drier, warmer weather and possibly haze – What exactly is El Nino?

What is the impact of El Nino on the weather in Singapore?

During an El Nino event, Singapore can expect its rainfall to be affected significantly.

“El Nino events tend to have the biggest influence on Singapore’s rainfall during the southwest monsoon season from June to September, with rainfall up to 45 per cent below average,” the Met Service said.

“During the last strong El Nino event in 2015/2016, Singapore’s total rainfall from June to September 2015 was about 35 per cent below the long-term average.”

Temperatures will also rise during such an event.

“El Nino events also bring warmer temperatures to Singapore, with the warmest temperatures often occurring when El Nino events weaken typically in March to April the year following the start of the event,” the Met Service said.

“During the 2015/2016 El Nino event, Singapore’s average temperature over the June to September 2015 period was 28.8 degrees Celsius or 0.6 degree Celsius above its long-term average for that period.

“For the period from March to April 2016, Singapore’s average temperature was 29.2 degrees Celsius or 1.2 degrees Celsius above its long-term average for that period.”

The Met Service added that 2016 was one of Singapore’s hottest years on record, along with 2019.

Should Singapore expect transboundary haze?

The southwest monsoon period between June and September is typically the dry season for Singapore and the surrounding region.

An El Nino event and a positive IOD event could raise the intensity of this dry season and extend it into October, increasing the risk that haze will impact Singapore.

“Drier and warmer conditions are conducive to the development of peatland and vegetation fires,” the Met Service said.

“Therefore, hotspots could escalate from June 2023 under extended periods of drier weather, particularly in fire-prone areas.

“This will increase the risk of transboundary haze affecting Singapore if fires develop in close proximity and prevailing south-easterly to south-westerly winds blow smoke haze from the fires towards Singapore.”

On Monday, the meteorological centre of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) also flagged a higher risk of escalated hotspot activity and transboundary haze in the southern ASEAN region from June to October.

The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) made this announcement as it issued Alert Level 1, indicating the start of the dry season associated with the Southwest Monsoon in the southern ASEAN region.

Hotspot activity in the southern ASEAN region is presently still subdued, however, with 14 and 13 hotspots detected in the southern ASEAN region on May 27 and May 28 respectively, ASMC said.

A few localised smoke plumes were detected in parts of the region on some days in May, but no transboundary smoke haze occurrence has been observed so far.

NEA has convened the Inter-Agency Haze Task Force to review and prepare Singapore’s responses in case of transboundary haze, Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu said in a Facebook post on Tuesday.

“As a precaution, Singaporeans may wish to make preparations to protect your loved ones, such as by ensuring that you have an adequate supply of N95 face masks and your air purifiers are in good working condition.”

Is climate change affecting El Nino?

According to the Royal Meteorological Society, it is unclear what effect climate change is having on ENSO.

“Because of the large event-to-event variations of El Nino, we don’t have enough past years of observations to show a clear impact of climate change on its properties,” the society said on its website.

“However, there is now some evidence that the effects of El Nino on rainfall may increase in the future and that we may even see more extreme ENSO events, but these remain active research questions.”

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Commentary: Think ChatGPT can write as well as a human? My students disagree

Others have argued that AI-powered writing tools can help users in several ways. They can check grammar and tackle writer’s block by generating an outline for an article. Outsourcing these tasks to AI allows writers to focus on the substance and content of their arguments or stories.

QUESTIONS OF HONESTY AND ACCOUNTABILITY

In addition to the Fort Siloso article that my students critiqued as impersonal, I also asked ChatGPT to write another version using a first-person perspective. It was similarly logical and decently written, but more engaging.

However, the article it generated was dishonest. In one paragraph, it wrote: “Upon entering the fort, I was greeted by a knowledgeable guide who gave me a brief overview of the fort’s history.” How can an AI programme write about a first-hand experience it never had, describing sights it never saw?

A few of my students also pointed out factual mistakes. Indeed, when my colleagues tested ChatGPT by asking it to write short bios of faculty members, many details included were wrong.

When I prompted it to write a literature review and to include a reference list, it listed references that I could not find, and cited articles for information not discussed in them.

If I had used ChatGPT to generate this commentary and it included factual errors, who should be held accountable for any mistakes?

Bylines are not just about acknowledging the efforts and unique voices of authors – they are also about accountability. They identify the writer responsible for what is communicated in the article.

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Commentary: Don’t dismiss the fury over Fukushima’s water

Pacific nations have a similar history. Though no country has suffered the death toll that Japan endured from nuclear weapons, the dozens of bombs tested in the Marshall Islands released energy about 5,000 times greater than that of those dropped on Japan. It left a grim legacy of cancers and birth defects.

Most Pacific nations became independent from their former colonial powers in the late 1970s and early 1980s, at a time when both the US and Japan were looking to the region’s vast spaces as a dump for radioactive waste. Fighting against those policies and establishing a nuclear-free zone south of the equator was a foundational event for many young nations, quite as much as pacifism was in post-war Japan.

Some circumspection earlier in the process might have paid off. It took China’s aggressive diplomacy in the region before Japan, the US and Australia started to reverse decades of neglect and began making serious attempts to woo and listen to Pacific island governments. 

As recently as 2015, then-prime minister Shinzo Abe told a delegation of island leaders meeting some 40km from the Fukushima plant “to support Japan’s effort without being misled by rumours”.

That sort of scolding response was thankfully absent in his successor Fumio Kishida’s summit on the sidelines of the Group of Seven meeting earlier this month with Prime Minister Mark Brown of the Cook Islands. Pacific leaders, in turn, appear to have been mollified by the greater transparency and dialogue.

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Ukraine is the loser in mutual overhead attacks

Everyone is excited that Ukrainian drones attacked a Moscow southern suburb on May 30th, but the excitement is much ado about nothing. Those drones did little damage, according to Russian reports: There were no serious casualties; one building was evacuated temporarily as a precaution.

The drone attacks on Moscow were puny when compared with massive Russian attacks on Ukraine the night before. According to reports from Russia of what happened in Moscow:

“A drone hit the upper floors of a residential building on Profsoyuznaya Street 98. The façade and glazing of the house were destroyed. There were no casualties.” 

“A drone also hit a 24-story residential building on Atlasova Street. The façade and glazing of the upper floors were destroyed. There were no casualties.” 

A UAV carrying three explosives flew into an apartment on the 14th floor of a building in Leninsky Avenue, but failed to detonate.

Moscow’s Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said that in all there were eight drones, of which five were shot down by the Pantsir air defense system and three jammed, thus going out of control and hitting the apartment buildings.

President Vladimir Putin had ordered Pantsir systems installed around Moscow this past January. A Pantsir system also was installed at the Putin summer residence in Sochi. Some of these installations are on rooftops, meaning that the Pantsir vehicles were removed for rooftop installations. By placing Pantsir on rooftops the field of view in urban areas is significantly improved

There is a video of one of the Pantsir units shooting down a drone over Moscow. That drone exploded in a fireball when it was hit.

According to Moscow, the type of drone is new and was produced by the Ukrainians. The Russians estimate these drones are long range and the drone’s wings were located on the drone body forward to allow the drone to carry more explosives.

Ukraine says it had nothing to do with the drone attack on Moscow. Ukrainian authorities also leaked that the drones were Chinese. Last year there were reports of some Chinese drones in Ukraine.

Most of those who saw this attack regarded it as retaliation for the intense drone and missile attacks on Kyiv. Concurrently with the drone attack on Moscow, the Ukrainians upped the shelling across the border areas in the direction of Belgorod, hitting at least three settlements.  

The real action, however, was over Ukraine, where Russian drones and missiles pounded Kyiv and a number of other locations.

The map below shows the targets of the Russian attack on the 29th of May:

The attack was heavy and, apparently, effective. There are reports that the US Patriot system in Kyiv was destroyed. The Patriot system was supposed to be sited at the Kyiv Zhuliany Airport and also near the Kyiv Zoo. Another location allegedly struck that may be a Patriot site is the Vasylkiv military air base, which was previously destroyed by the Russians on March 12, 2022. 

These reports are not confirmed as yet. Putin says that one of the successful Russian strikes was on the building in Kyiv housing Ukrainian military intelligence. According to the Russian government RT outlet, a number of Ukrainian command centers were destroyed in these attacks across the country.

One of the most important targets for the Russians was the 7th Tactical Air Brigade, which is based at a military airfield near Starokonstantinov in the Khmelnitsky area. The location in western Ukraine included Su-24M and Su-24 MR fighter-bomber jets that had been modified by the UK to carry Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

The Storm Shadow was developed by the UK and France and is a low-observable, long-range, air-launched cruise missile. It was designed by  Matra BAe Dynamics. That company was formed in August 1996 by merger of half the missile business of Matra Defense of France and BAe Dynamics (a division of British Aerospace) of the UK  Today Stormshadow is manufactured by MBDA Missile Systems. Stormshadow carries a 990 lb. (450 kg) conventional warhead.  The cost per missile is $2.7 million.

Own goal? Darwin Award candidate?

A story going around says that Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov and his UK counterpart, Ben Wallace, the UK secretary of state for defense, published a celebratory postcard showing a picture of an Su-24 sporting the Storm Shadow cruise missile. A problem arose, however, because the postcard also showed, in the upper right-hand corner, the insignia of the 7th Tactical Air Brigade, thus enabling the Russians to know which aircraft had the Storm Shadow and where they were based.

On May 29 the Russians attacked the 7th Tactical Air Brigade in Starokonstantinov.  Five Su-24s were damaged or destroyed, and storage facilities for Storm Shadow missiles were hit in the Russian attack.  It isn’t clear if this is the only Storm Shadow-equipped unit but, in any event, the loss of the aircraft and missiles is a significant blow to Ukraine.

Stormshadow Postcard Signed by Ben Wallace, UK secretary of state for defense. Photo: Twitter

The Russian attack was something – a big enough deal to inspire, in the words of the Bard, “much ado.”

Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published on his Substack, Weapons and Strategy. Asia Times is republishing it with permission.

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