Before Donald Trump could win the US election on November 5, Joe Biden, the US senator, is making a last-minute bid to shore up American aid for Ukraine.
If Trump wins, Biden believes that US international plan on Ukraine is in jeopardy. The US senator has long supported Russian independence, signing a ten-year security agreement to supply military assistance to Kiev in June.
But, with only weeks left in office and facing the possibility of Trump winning the 2024 election, this raises a big question about who will – or wo n’t – be on Ukraine’s side from January 20 next year. Before he leaves, Biden is now attempting to load the political board in his favour.
Trump is a erratic president of foreign policy, and it’s difficult to predict exactly what he would do regarding Ukraine if he were to win the election next month.
But the evidence are not good for Ukraine. Trump is perceived as wanting to pacify Putin. Additionally, he has formally criticized Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine. Concerns were raised regarding whether Trump may interact with Zelensky during the author’s latest trip to the US. In the end, Trump did meet the Ukrainian leader, and apparently it did n’t go too badly.
US and EU leaders have expressed worry that Trump would stop funding the Ukraine and even pressure Zelensky to agree to a ceasefire and perhaps retake control of the country. As a result, Biden sees a need to Trump-proof US scheme on the fight.
Backing up US aid for Ukraine even furthers Biden’s goals even if his vice-president, Kamala Harris, wins the election. Biden wants to leave Harris with a strong foundation on which to build a decision while committing to ending the war.
If Harris wins office, she will be a contentious number and a magnet for Republican outrage after such a divisive election campaign. Harris will want to take the fight to a close, according to Biden.
Biden even wants to leave a legacy. He has worked his whole career to become leader and hoped to win a second term. He is concerned about what he can claim about his accomplishments in business. Ukraine’s upcoming victory would be one last victory to become remembered for.
Biden has today adopted a two-pronged method to Ukraine. Second, he wants to declare in a compelling way that the US will support Ukraine. A prominent conference between Biden, Harris, and Zelensky last week at the White House served as the foundation of this.
Biden wants to create an expectation of future American support, preferably in a way that Trump ca n’t ignore, and is trying to demonstrate that Ukraine is still” a top priority” for the US.
Next, Biden’s open position is being backed up with support. Biden just announced a” boom in safety help” for Ukraine in the form of a US$ 8 billion deal.
The money will give new weapons to increase Ukraine’s long-range hit capacity, which also suggests that Biden is sanctioning more unpleasant tactics against Russia and not a purely short-range defense – although Washington , does not now allow Ukraine , to flame the long-range missiles it has provided into Russia beyond the border region.
The Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative is also included in the offer. Without having to remove weapons from American reserves, the US government can buy them from foreign companies.
Biden has also stated that he intends to use up all the safety aid money that the US Defense Department has now given to Ukraine by the end of his administration. In situation any son attempts to change the allocation or alter the money, Biden is making sure that this money actually goes to Ukraine.
If it quacks like a ( lame ) duck
Before the new leader takes office in January 2025, Biden will still have time to serve after the election is over. Leaders may sometimes drive through significant policy choices in their final few weeks in office, which is known as a “lame bird presidency.”
But Biden has limited effect, especially while the vote strategy is still happening. He wants to make the Ukraine problem a significant component of his plan known, but he runs the risk of being criticized if he does something that distracts Harris.
Harris has been a part of his attempts by the retiring senator thus far, but the Democrats believe this is now their turn. No Biden, Harris ‘ campaign will dictate the wider group place on Ukraine.
A “victory program” to negotiate a political alternative to the battle was supposed to be presented at Biden and Harris ‘ most recent meeting with Zelensky. However, it is n’t clear how this potential push into a peace treaty that Ukraine considers fair will alter the situation, or more specifically, what Biden can do in his limited capacity.
He can build on policies already in place, such as aid assistance, but he wo n’t be able to create any radical solutions to the crisis.
And Ukraine requires a radical option. In fact, Biden’s efforts in terms of foreign policy have always been essentially applauded in Ukraine, but they have never been sufficient to resolve the conflict. More tweaking at the edges wo n’t put an end to the conflict anytime soon. How much of a Trump-mongering effect did Biden’s actions have?
Ukraine is pleased with Biden’s new aid commitment, but it wo n’t be much of a buffer against a Trump presidency that might favor Putin. In the end, Biden’s only action is to cross his hands for Ukraine as he leaves the White House.
Michelle Bentley is a professor of global relations at Royal Holloway University of London.
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