Artificial intelligence ( AI ) is a topic that everyone is discussing, and rightly so. about its numerous and terrifying threats. regarding its benefits, which are numerous and seductive.
AI has the potential to significantly increase humankind’s capacity to get data and transform it into knowledge, among the benefits. But as 2024 approaches, I start to question the extent of the knowledge and information we now possess.
Our reliance on data appears to be getting worse. It frequently seems doubtful that we are able to view data or information and turn it into information.
The US economy offered a worrisome illustration of how inaccurately we perceive data in 2023. Economists were concerned as the year got underway because of a number of indicators, including quickly rising interest costs and the housing market’s decline. The data’s meaning was obvious to the majority of experts: a crisis was on the horizon.
It always arrived. And even though it might also happen in 2024, some pessimists from last year now speculate that the Federal Reserve does have pulled off a unicorn-like” soft landing.” The S&, P 500 ended the month up 24 %.
There are generally two possible causes when an author’s predictions are incorrect, which they frequently are. One is the structure of the design used by economists. The calculations of any model include presumptions regarding the significance of several indications and their cause-and-effect relationships. It’s amazing that economists ‘ models often come close to being accurate given the complexity of the market and the seemingly limitless number of potential surprises the future may hold.
GIGO, or garbage in, is the other root of issues. If the information, or the data fed into the equations, is incorrect, the unit cannot produce the correct response. Additionally, the data’s value is becoming more and more debatable.
The US Department of Agriculture’s information on issues like offer, demand, and ending companies have long been criticized in the agricultural community for their poor data quality. I have no doubts about the honesty or skill of the individuals who created these reports, and I am aware that the accounts have the power to influence areas. However, DTN researchers and other farmers and business analysts frequently make the convincing case that reports are false.
The DTN Six Element Market Strategies were introduced almost 20 years ago due to concerns that farmers were extremely reliant on USDA reviews. The Six Elements make buy-sell recommendations based on market data rather than state data.
While there have been long-standing issues about USDA reports, non-agricultural federal data has recently been affected by a different, more current issue.
Some of the most significant information comes from surveys. However, Americans are becoming less and less likely to pick up the phone or respond to requests to take written or electronic research these times. Answer rates have been falling, often sharply. Lower response rates also raise the possibility of error, even though they do n’t always imply inaccurate results.
Covid- 19 exacerbated the situation. Some government organizations, like the Bureau of Labor Statistics, gather some of their information by visiting entrepreneurs in-person. Some of the businessmen are no longer in their workplaces due to the pandemic. They are home-based workers. The organization is making changes quickly.
Because costs for many items are higher than they were a few years ago, some people believe that the BLS’s consumer price index, which last year showed fast declining prices, must be flawed. However, the CPI is comparing prices to previous month and last year, no a number of years ago, so there is no cause for concern.
Personal experts have also noticed a decline in response rates. Researchers are still debating whether and to what extent this reduction was to blame for the missed names in the 2016 and 2020 presidential primaries.
What is known is that polls have been forced to wonder whether some types of voters are less likely to react and are therefore represented in surveys as a result of lower response rates. For instance, the majority of elections in 2020 predicted Biden did win but grossly overestimated his margin of victory. Could there have been a lack of Trump supporters?
The majority of researchers who create surveys, both public and private, are intelligent individuals who put a lot of effort into realizing their errors and fixing them. However, making the necessary changes is both challenging and cheap. Despite experts ‘ best efforts, there is no assurance that they will be successful.
You’ll see a lot of press reviews of elections because this is an election year. Check out what the poll has to say about the survey’s methodology, the margin of error, and any example corrections before taking the benefits very seriously. This data and more will be disclosed by the top experts.
Had AI aid experts in increasing their precision? Keep an eye on.
Urban Lehner , a lifelong writer and editor for the Wall Street Journal Asia, is the director professor of DTN/The Progressive Farmer.
Copyright 2024 DTN/The Progressive Farmer is the title of this article, which was first published on January 2 by the latter news business and is now being republished with authority by Asia Times. All right are reserved. Urban Lehner on X @urbanize , follow@nps,