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The government will resubmit a proposed 11 billion baht subsidy on household electricity bills for approval by the Election Commission( EC ), according to Prime Minister Prayut Chan o cha.

The proposal was approved by the government on Tuesday, but the crown regulator rejected it last week, according to a source.

When asked when the government would resend the proposal to the EC, Gen. Prayut replied that the documents and a justification for its obvious endorsement, which he believes will soon follow, would be submitted again by Tuesday.

Any budget allocation for emergencies made by an cheerful government following a House breakdown under Chapter 169 of the organization must first be approved by the polling place.

To assist struggling households, the commission’s proposal may extend the capability subsidy for another four months, from May to August, for families that use fewer than 300 models per month.

Those who use 151 to 300 units per month may receive a decrease of 67.04 satang per machine, while those who only use 1 to 150 models may only receive this reduction.

To financing a system intended to assist 18.36 million residents, about 7.6 billion ringgit may be taken out of the 2023 budget for emergency purpose.

A proposed 150 baht reduction for families that use no more than 500 units this quarter for May hardly is another step to assist people with expensive power bills.

A new record of approximately 23.4 million residents using more than 500 units is anticipated for last month.

In order to help alleviate a 150 billion baht shortfall caused by the EC’s freezing of the fuel tariff in its calculation of energy prices, the Secretariat for the Cabinet made an urgent appeal to it, asking for permission to pay the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand( Egat ).

However, Somchai Srisutthiyakorn, a previous EC person who is currently the chief strategist of the Seri Ruam Thai Party, stated that he physically thinks the power subsidy plan won’t be approved until after the May 14 vote.

The EC is convinced that approving the plan before then might become illegal.

According to Mr. Somchai, the caretaker government continues to discuss the payment handout while claiming that there is a chance the EC did approve it.

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Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is adamant the government will resubmit a proposed 11-billion-baht subsidy on household electricity bills for approval by the Election Commission (EC).

Approved by the cabinet on Tuesday, the proposal was last week rejected by the poll regulator, according to a source.

Asked when the government will resubmit the proposal to the EC, Gen Prayut said the paperwork will be resubmitted by Tuesday along with a justification for its immediate approval which he believes will soon follow.

Under Section 169 of the constitution, any budget allocation for emergencies by an outgoing cabinet after a House dissolution must be endorsed by the poll agency first.

Under the cabinet’s plan, the power subsidy would be extended for another four months from May until August for households that consume less than 300 units per month, to help struggling households.

Those that consume 1-150 units a month would get a reduction of 92.04 satang per unit while those using 151-300 units would be given a reduction of 67.04 satang per unit.

About 7.6 billion baht will be drawn from the 2023 budget for emergency purposes to finance a plan hoped to help 18.36 million households.

Another measure to help people with costly power bills is a proposed reduction of 150 baht for households that use no more than 500 units this month for May only.

Next month is expected to see a new record of around 23.4 million households using more than 500 units.

The Secretariat of the Cabinet therefore made an urgent appeal to the EC seeking permission to pay a subsidy to the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat) to help ease a 150-billion-baht shortfall incurred through its freezing of the fuel tariff in its calculation of energy prices.

Somchai Srisutthiyakorn, a former EC member who is now chief strategist of the Seri Ruam Thai Party, however, said he personally believes the EC will not approve the energy subsidy plan until after the May 14 election.

The EC is aware that it could be a breach of the law to approve the proposal before that.

Despite the caretaker government knowing this, it continues to talk up the cash handout under the pretence that there is a chance the EC will give it a green light, according to Mr Somchai.

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Scattered thunderstorms, strong winds and some hail and lightning strikes are forecast for upper Thailand from Saturday to Monday, according to the Meteorological Department.

The weather agency on Saturday advised people to be cautious of severe weather conditions in areas affected by summer storms. The public should avoid open areas, stay away from big trees, large billboards and unsecured structures, not wear metal, and refrain from using mobile phones during a storm. Farmers are also advised to prepare and prevent damage to agricultural goods and danger to their livestock.

Hot to very hot weather will prevail across upper Thailand, with strong southerly and southeasterly winds bringing humidity from the Gulf of Thailand and the South China Sea. A high pressure system or cold air mass from China is also expected to prevail over the upper parts of the country on Saturday.

The provinces affected are as follows:

Saturday (April 29)

North: Nan, Uttaradit, Phitsanulok, Phichit and Phetchabun

Northeast: Loei, Nong Bua Lamphu, Udon Thani, Nong Khai, Bueng Kan, Sakon Nakhon, Nakhon Phanom, Mukdahan, Chaiyaphum, Khon Kaen, Kalasin, Maha Sarakham, Roi Et, Yasothon, Amnat Charoen, Nakhon Ratchasima, Buri Ram, Surin, Si Sa Ket and Ubon Ratchathani

Central Plains: Nakhon Sawan, Lop Buri and Saraburi

East: Nakhon Nayok, Prachin Buri and Sa Kaeo.

Sunday (April 30)

North: Mae Hong Son, Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Lamphun, Lampang, Phayao, Nan, Phrae, Uttaradit, Tak, Sukhothai, Kamphaeng Phet, Phitsanulok, Phichit and Phetchabun

Northeast: Loei, Chaiyaphum, Khon Kaen, Maha Sarakham, Roi Et, Yasothon, Amnat Charoen, Nakhon Ratchasima, Buri Ram, Surin, Si Sa Ket and Ubon Ratchathani

Central Plains: Nakhon Sawan, Uthai Thani, Chai Nat, Kanchanaburi, Suphan Buri, Lop Buri, Sing Buri, Ang Thong, Ayutthaya, Samut Songkhram, Nakhon Pathom and Greater Bangkok

East: Nakhon Nayok, Prachin Buri, Sa Kaeo, Chachoengsao, Chonburi, Rayong, Chanthaburi and Trat.

Monday (May 1)

North: Mae Hong Son, Chiang Mai, Lamphun, Lampang, Tak, Sukhothai, Kamphaeng Phet and Phitsanulok

Central Plains: Nakhon Sawan, Uthai Thani, Chai Nat, Kanchanaburi, Ratchaburi, Suphan Buri, Sing Buri, Ang Thong, Samut Songkhram, Nakhon Pathom and Greater Bangkok

Southeast: Phetchaburi and Prachuap Khiri Khan.

More rain is expected in the South due to easterly and southeasterly winds prevailing over the Gulf, the southern region and the Andaman Sea. The department has warned people in the South to brace for heavy rain and flooding.

Waves in the Gulf are expected to be about a metre high and more than 2m high in areas with thundershowers. All ships are warned to proceed with caution, while small boats should remain ashore during this period.

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Police are following the money trail of Sararat “Am” Rangsiwuthaporn, a suspected serial murderer, after a review of bank accounts revealed that as many as 20 people died after transferring large sums to her over the past two years.

A source close to the police said investigators were widening the probe into the mystery deaths of 13 people linked to Ms Sararat. One person survived a suspected poisoning attempt.

A few days ago, investigators obtained crucial evidence suggesting that the number of reported dead victims might be higher than currently believed.

A review of the suspect’s bank accounts from 2021 to the present showed that many people had transferred money to Ms Sararat, with amounts ranging from 10,000 to hundreds of thousands of baht.

Among those people, 18 to 20 had died after money transfers were made. The deceased included the 13 who have already been identified as possible victims, said the source. Police are now looking into the causes of death of the other five to seven people.

Police have obtained substantial evidence that could implicate Ms Sararat in the one murder with which she is already charged, said Pol Col Anek Taosupap, the deputy commander of the Crime Suppression Division (CSD).

Ms Sararat, 36, the ex-wife of a senior police officer in Ratchaburi, was arrested on Tuesday at the government complex on Chaeng Watthana Road in Bangkok on a warrant issued by the Criminal Court.

Her arrest followed a complaint filed by the mother and elder sister of the late Siriporn “Koy” Khanwong, 32, of Kanchanaburi. Siriporn collapsed and died on the bank of the Mae Klong river in Ban Pong district of Ratchaburi, where she had gone with Ms Sararat to release fish for merit-making on April 14. Cyanide was found in her body.

Investigators came to believe that Ms Sararat might have mixed cyanide in Siriporn’s food, causing her death. She allegedly also stole the victim’s valuables.

CSD investigators called Raphee Chamnarnrue, who took the family of the dead woman to file the police complaint, to give his statement as a witness on Saturday as they wanted further details, said Pol Col Anek.

On Sunday, investigators plan to question a nurse at Taksin Hospital who was a close friend of Ms Sararat and member of the same pyramid scheme, he said. He gave her name only as “Nok”.

Ms Sararat, who is four months pregnant, is currently being detained at the Central Women’s Correctional Institute. (Story continues below)

Police investigation teams have fanned out across Ratchaburi, Kanchanaburi, Nakhon Pathom and Phetchaburi provinces in search of more clues in the case.

The number of suspected deaths rose to 13 on Friday with the naming of Sawittree “Nim” Budsrirak, 41, who died in 2020 in Mukdahan, said Pol Gen Surachate Hakparn, the deputy national police chief.

According to her husband, Pol Snr Sgt Maj Nithipon Nuchid, Sawittree knew Ms Sararat through money lending and a pyramid scheme business and owed her at least 100,000 baht.

His wife died after taking a “diet pill” that Ms Sararat allegedly sent to her. The autopsy results showed a high amount of potassium in her bloodstream, he said.

Meanwhile, Mr Raphee arrived at the Central Investigation Bureau headquarters on Saturday to give his statement to CSD investigators about the death of Siriporn.

A volunteer in Kanchanaburi who has brought other cases to police attention in the past, he told reporters that he had been contacted by relatives of Siriporn as they had lingering doubts over the cause of her death.

He began looking into the case and gathering evidence that police might be able to use. There were witnesses who knew that Ms Sararat had phoned Siriporn to ask her to release fish into the Mae Klong River. He also had security video showing the two women together in a car on the day that Siriporn died.

Commenting on reports that as many as 30 people might have fallen victim to the suspect, Mr Raphee said those reports had to be double-checked. He had received information about other possible victims but after checking them he found many were not linked.

There were two cases in Nakhon Pathom in which the victims were involved in money lending and a pyramid scheme. Forensic officers had examined the bodies, he said.

He declined to elaborate on whether they had been poisoned, saying he had coordinated with their relatives to give information to Pol Gen Surachate.

Forensic investigation

Meanwhile, forensic investigations are continuing, with traces of cyanide found on the right console of the black Honda Civic Ms Sararat and her ex-husband used to drive, according to Weerachai Phutdhawong, an associate professor of chemistry at Kasetsart University. More traces were found in a bronze Toyota Vios that the suspect was driving on the day that Siriporn died.

A source close to the investigation said earlier that Ms Sararat had reportedly purchased cyanide online. Cyanide is a controlled substance used in industries and cannot be purchased at drug stores.

Questions have also arisen about the death of Ms Sararat’s boyfriend, Sutthisak “Dae” Phoonkhwan, with whom she began a relationship after divorcing her police husband last year.

Sutthisak, 35, died on March 12 this year in Udon Thani. He passed out at a petrol station in Nong Han district of the northeastern province after making merit with Ms Sararat at a local temple and having meals at a restaurant. Rescue workers rushed him to Nong Han Hospital. He was treated there and later discharged.

However, he died later the same day at a dormitory in Muang district of the northeastern province.

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SURAT THANI: Two men – an amulet expert and a pub owner – were killed and two women wounded in a gunfight at a car park of a hotel in Muang district after attending a wedding party on Friday night.

The fatal shooting occurred in the car park of Bunjongburi Hotel on Liang Muang Road in tambon Makham Tia, said a police officer at 191 radio centre of Muang police station. The incident was reported around 8.25pm.

Police, forensic officers and rescue workers rushed to the scene and found the bodies of the two men lying there. The first body was that of Panuphong  Suwannasin, 35, a popular amulet exert known as “Khunphaen Surat’’ of Surat Thani’s Tha Chang district. He had been shot in the head, body and legs.  A pistol was found near his left hand.

About two metres away, the body of 39-year-old Wirat “Jane Thonglor’’ Sudphakdee, owner of Thonglor, a popular pub in Muang district, was found. He sustained gunshot wounds to his head, body, hip and right leg. 

Fifteen spent bullets were found scattered over the area.

There were two women injured in the gunfight. They were later identified as Kansiri Suwannasin, 30, wife of the amulet expert, and Thanaithorn Luetheng, 20, of Trang province.

According to a police investigation, the four victims attended a wedding party at a building behind the hotel. Panuphong and Wirat used to be friends and later got involved in a conflict that lasted more than two years. After the wedding party, the two men went to the car park and talked for a while before the shooting erupted.

A source said Panuphong and Kansiri had been arrested in Bangkok by the Crime Suppression Division on May 15, 2021, on drug charges. The couple had been imprisoned. After serving his jail term, he ran an amulet trade online with more than 100,000 followers on his Facebook page.

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They are one of several families woven into the fabric of Thai politics — the most famous of which is the Shinawatras, whose patriarch Thaksin was prime minister from 2001 to 2006 and continues to loom large from exile abroad.

The financial rewards of elected office — an MP earns around 113,000 baht (US$3,500) a month — may be little more than loose change to these ultra-wealthy clans, but the influence it brings can be highly profitable to their business interests.

The Thienthong family built their wealth on a successful logistics business in their eastern heartland — which includes a major border crossing to Cambodia — and have dominated the region’s politics since the 1970s.

In the run-up to the May 14 vote, theirs is the name plastered on campaign posters along the rough country roads of poor, rural Sa Kaeo province.

Kwanruen Thienthong, her daughter Treenuch and nephew Sorawong are all contesting the three constituency seats up for grabs in this northeastern province.

Mr Sorawong is running for Pheu Thai, the main opposition party riding high in the polls, while the two women are with the army-backed Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) which led the outgoing ruling coalition.

Mr Sorawong’s brothers are also running for Pheu Thai: Surachart in a Bangkok constituency, and Surakiat, on the party list.

“Politics is politics. Family is family. We have different standpoints in politics but we’re still family,” Mr Sorawong tells AFP.

Ms Treenuch began her career as an MP with a forerunner party of Pheu Thai more than 20 years ago but switched to PPRP, was re-elected in 2019 and serves as education minister.

For voters in Sa Kaeo the family’s track record on the ground matters more than party names or political ideology.

“They go down to every area and when there’s work or there are requests for help from the locals, they help,” Treenuch supporter Sirinthip Sawangkloi told AFP at a noisy rally.

– Local base –

Rural Thailand is threaded with the influence of these rich, powerful clans and part of their local support rests on personal as well as political interventions.

“When my cousin died, I went to ask them to be in charge of the funeral and they did, so that’s why I cannot abandon them,” Boonma Noinamkhum, another Treenuch supporter, told AFP.

To voters, they can offer a measure of local stability and influence in a kingdom with a turbulent political history, marked by a dozen coups since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932.

Pasuk Phongpaichit, an economist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, said this flourished in the upheavals that shook Thailand in the 1970s and 1980s.

“In that period… they could make a lot of money and influence from a system with no rule of law, and symbiotic relationship with local military, local police and influential bureaucrats,” Ms Pasuk told AFP.

“Once they became rich, they could establish power over the local MPs. They then saw an opportunity to enter politics.”

But political power was not enough to save Thaksin, a former telecoms tycoon ousted in a coup in 2006 and now living in self-exile abroad to avoid corruption charges he says are politically motivated.

Despite these reverses, Forbes still values his fortune at over $2 billion, though this puts him only 14th on its Thai rich list, far behind the Chearavanont brothers who own Thailand’s biggest conglomerate, CP Group.

And the Shinawatras’ influence in Thai politics has not waned: Thaksin’s sister Yingluck was PM from 2011-14 and his daughter is one of Pheu Thai’s candidates for the job this time.

– Resilience –

For nearly 50 years, in the National Assembly and in the cabinet, the Thienthongs have been part of the Thai political landscape and in the 1990s, they had a reputation for making or breaking governments.

Aside from the five candidates this year, Ms Treenuch’s brother Thanit was elected as an MP five times, last time defeating another Thienthong, Sonthidej.

But in the wake of the youth-led street protests calling for political change in 2020, the upcoming election could mark a turning point for these clans, said Ms Pasuk.

“This election has two systems. The one that has been dominated by political families, and the new generation of young voters who are more likely to find parties with ideology and long-term programmes more attractive. Which one will win this time? It is very uncertain,” she told AFP.

But the dynasties have shown a remarkable resilience and adaptability to survive in the topsy-turvy world of Thai politics.

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The countdown to a general election typically prompts some voters to strategise how they will vote on the big day.

With the May 14 polls around the corner, so-called tactical voting is being planned by some voters to prevent their least favourite parties garnering too many House seats.

A political analyst said strategic voting in the upcoming polls may occur at the expense of the Pheu Thai Party, which could jeopardise its goal of winning the election by a landslide.

Where Pheu Thai stands to lose from tactical voting could well be its closest ally, the Move Forward Party’s (MFP) gain.

According to the analyst, the biggest surprise may be where the tactical votes come from.

And thanks to the re-introduced dual-ballot system, such a voting practice is predicted to deliver a particularly potent result.

Recent opinion polls have been encouraging for the MFP, which has fared consistently better with each survey in the past several weeks.

At the same time, Pheu Thai’s rating has dipped, which spurred the party into examining where it has gone wrong in its campaign.

It was reasonable to assume the party had banked on its 10,000-baht digital wallet scheme to give its election standing more lift. Despite being ridiculed by critics as a populist handout, the 560-billion-baht programme, in which 10,000 baht will be spent within six months at shops within a 4-kilometre radius of where people live, was expected by the party to be the ace to trump economic stimulus election pledges by other parties.

However, a cautious review of the policy by some experts, who feared spending of such magnitude might harm fiscal discipline, has been a political headwind for the party. This might be the reason for the dip in Pheu Thai’s popularity.

As both Pheu Thai and the MFP belong to the self-styled “pro-democracy” camp, some supporters who traditionally back one party might switch to another one at the polls over a dubious campaign policy.

The expert said the switching of support within an alliance could explain the MFP’s improved performance in opinion polls.

The two parties have warmed to one another in their common political stance, although that may be as far as the amicability goes. Pheu Thai has made it abundantly clear on numerous occasions that it is doing everything in its power to sweep the election and rule the next government solo.

It is a message repeated many times over by Srettha Thavisin, former president and chief executive of the Sansiri real estate empire, who is now one of Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidates.

Pheu Thai was viewed as having snubbed the MFP’s hand of friendship when the latter earlier voiced its willingness to form a government with Pheu Thai.

In many constituencies, the two parties are, in fact, set on a collision course. Their candidates have rapidly become embroiled in an intense neck-and-neck race.

Meanwhile, according to the expert, some voters who oppose the two parties were mulling over whether they should adopt tactical voting in the polls.

These voters, who are zealous supporters of the likes of the Palang Pracharath Party, the United Thai Nation Party, and the Democrat Party, might be considering this option if they think their favourite candidate does not stand a chance of winning in constituencies where Pheu Thai and the MFP are top contenders.

The voters who dislike Pheu Thai more than they do the MFP and dread it clinching a landslide win could be tempted to cast their constituency ballots for MFP candidates while voting for their actual favourite parties in the party list system.

The expert said the “sacrificial” votes might be embraced under the dual-ballot election, where the votes of the defeated candidates will be thrown away.

If it had been the single-ballot method, as in the previous election, the votes cast for the losing candidates would be counted toward their respective parties’ nationwide tally and converted into party list seats, provided there were enough votes.

Instead of wasting their votes, some voters might opt to strategise and resort to keeping their biggest foes from becoming too big in the next election, the expert said.

First might not be enough

Many opinion polls suggest Pheu Thai is on course for a big win at the general election. Unfortunately though, the party’s chances of forming a coalition government are being thrown into doubt.

By tradition, a political party that captures the most seats is recognised as receiving a mandate to put together a coalition. In the 2019 polls, Pheu Thai, which grabbed the largest share of House seats, proceeded to try and set up a government but failed to achieve the majority it needed.

This time around, analysts are increasingly doubtful parties will observe this long-standing practice which is not constitutionally required. They reckon rivals will jostle hard to try and gain the upper hand in putting together a coalition government, regardless of how many seats they won.

Of all the parties, the United Thai Nation Party (UTN) is believed to have a solid chance of forming a government, although it is projected to finish third or even fourth with about 40 seats.

Some speculate that the jockeying will start as soon as the UTN, which nominated its chief strategist, Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha as its No.1 prime ministerial candidate, appears to win at least 25 seats, the minimum number required for a party to be able to nominate a prime minister.

According to observers, the UTN has the edge over its rivals because its bloc does not need to secure a simple majority to form a government. They point to the 250-member Senate’s role in co-selecting a prime minister in parliament.

The UTN is widely believed to have the senators in its pocket, and if its rivals want their candidates to be voted in as prime minister without the need for Senate support, they must win at least 376 House seats — more than half of the combined 750 members of both chambers.

Virtually no observer is convinced that Pheu Thai can muster enough House seats to offset the Senate’s votes. Pheu Thai is forecast to win 220 seats, and together with its potential allies, the Move Forward Party (MFP) and the Seri Ruam Thai Party, they will come up with 260 seats.

According to Stithorn Thananithichot, a political analyst at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, only 240 seats are sufficient for a UTN-led bloc to guarantee success in Gen Prayut’s nomination as the next prime minister and put together a coalition.

The Bhumjaithai Party is projected to win 80 seats, the largest number of seats in the UTN-led bloc, while the UTN and the Democrats will have a combined 80 seats. The bloc can still bank on support from small parties, which are believed to lean toward joining a government rather than sitting in opposition, according to the analyst.

The likelihood of a minority government emerging after the May 14 polls does not surprise Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University.

In Thai politics, anything is possible, and the Palang Pracharath Party-led government is living proof of how a government with a razor-thin majority can manage to complete its four-year term, according to the academic.

If Gen Prayut succeeds in reclaiming the premiership after the next polls, he will come under tremendous pressure during his two-year stint before passing the baton to someone else, said Mr Olarn.

Gen Prayut’s eight-year tenure as prime minister started on April 6, 2017, when the current charter was promulgated, and if he is re-elected after the next polls, he can remain in office until 2025.

According to Mr Olarn, Pheu Thai will find itself in a dilemma after the polls and even if the party manages to lead a coalition government, its administration will likely be short-lived.

While the UTN needs only 250 seats, Pheu Thai must gather at least 350, which means it will have to bring the MFP on board. Negotiating with the MFP over policy goals and cabinet posts will not be an easy task, especially in the areas where they do not see eye to eye, according to Mr Olarn.

It is likely that the MFP will be aiming for major ministries to pursue its policy of bringing about structural changes, including the election of provincial governors and military reforms, said the academic, who noted that the MFP’s demands for the interior and defence portfolios could be a deal breaker.

Moreover, the MFP is likely to block any attempts to bring ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra home, and this can spell doom for the government, he added.

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