Cutting-edge AI-enabled AUKUS drone tests show the group’s push for technologically superior military power, but business restraints and Chinese marketplace dominance could stymie its readiness for upcoming conflicts.
The UK’s Defense Science and Technology Laboratory ( DSTL ) reported this month that Australia, the UK, and the US have successfully tested AI-enabled uncrewed aerial vehicles ( UAVs ) that enable human operators to identify and neutralize ground targets.
The trial, which is a component of the AUKUS Resilient and Autonomous Artificial Intelligence Technologies (RAAIT ) series, is reportedly the first real-time military use of autonomous and AI sensing systems, according to DSTL.
The source says that the practice, conducted during the annual US-hosted Project Convergence, showcased creative AI and freedom, substantially reducing target identifying time and minimizing risk to personnel.
Additionally, it mentions that the training demonstrated improved interoperability and access to advanced AI among the AUKUS countries, as well as the potential for protecting defense goods from digital war and GPS problems.
According to DSTL, Commodore Rachel Singleton, head of the AUKUS Defence Artificial Intelligence Center ( DAIC ), stressed the value of interoperable systems developed across the three countries.
According to the cause, the technology, which has been fast developing since its first British test in April 2023, aims to give the military an operational edge against evolving threats.
These creative work may be part of AUKUS Pillar II, which focuses on advanced military features such as computer capabilities, AI and freedom, classical technologies, undersea capabilities, hypersonics and counter-hypersonics, and digital war capabilities.
Small robots have proved to be devastating weapons in the continuing conflict in Ukraine, but AUKUS has probably been slow to adopt them as the core of the tech-driven empire.
The group faces major difficulties in implementing small drones due to high production costs, fierce opposition from Chinese manufacturers, reliance on Chinese components, and source competition from different projects.
Defense One pointed out this month that Ukraine’s powerful annual production of one million first-person-view drones could result in a potential shortfall in the US Army’s small drone production for defense purposes.
Defense One points out that private companies like Skydio and Teal struggle to match demand because of China’s market hegemony and higher generation costs, despite the US Army’s increasing inclusion of drones, inspired by Russian battle successes.
According to the Defense One report, the US Department of Defense’s ( DOD ) slow purchasing and limited assistance create barriers for startups in the drone market. Additionally, it raises questions about the higher price and lower performance of US drones compared to Chinese ones.
However, Breaking Defense reported this month that the US had chosen some systems for Tranche 2 of its Replicator program, which was intended to field large numbers of disposable drones. Previously, the US included the Switchblade kamikaze drone in the program.
Underscoring Australia’s dependence on China for drone capability, Defense Post reported in August 2023 that the Australian government is using 3, 000 Chinese-made drones with components such as cameras, gimbals and batteries blacklisted by the US for their alleged links to China’s People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ).
Due to the absence of a sovereign drone manufacturing base, Australia is more prone to supply chain disruptions, according to Defense Post. Although it claims that Australia has a mature drone ecosystem, it only uses it commercially.
Despite those difficulties, Defense Post reported in February that Australia has awarded contracts worth US$ 800, 899 to 11 domestic companies to develop prototype unmanned aerial systems ( UASs ) for its military.
The source says such a move will further Australia’s sovereign drone industry, create jobs and increase military operational effectiveness.
In March 2024, Breaking Defense reported that the UK’s Royal Air Force (RAF ) 216 Squadron, established in 2020 to test uncrewed aircraft, has not conducted any drone tests. The national military drone strategy’s goal of rapid integration of drone services is challenged by this circumstance, according to the report.
In a parliamentary statement, then-President of the UK, James Cartlidge, noted the squadron’s inactivity and the canceled trial with the Koios intelligence drone due to resource conflicts.
The UK Defense Drone Strategy 2024 recommends investing$ 5.91 billion over the next two years in uncrewed capability, accelerating acquisition reform, building a resilient industrial base, defining digital architectures for seamless integration, and instilling a culture of innovation to spur domestic production.
Although the AUKUS bloc has taken significant steps to address these issues and is facing several challenges, the steps may not be enough.
The situation does not bode well for AUKUS vis-à-vis China, the world’s largest drone manufacturer and arguably the reason for the bloc’s existence.
In keeping with that, WSJ reported this month that China saw an opportunity to modernize its military in comparison to the US while the US focused on the Global War on Terror ( GWOT ).
WSJ notes that AI-enabled drones are critical to China’s military modernization efforts. Although the WSJ report notes that drones with limited autonomy could be deployed in combat in the coming years, fully autonomous drones may be far off.
The report also mentions that China dominates the global drone supply chain and is the market leader in large, complex drones like the MQ-9 Reaper and RQ-4 Global Hawk.
It points out that China’s DJI controls 72.3 % of the worldwide drone market share, while the US struggles to create reliable, inexpensive small drones at scale.
WSJ points out that China has a competitive advantage in developing small-scale systems, giving it an advantage in drone swarm tactics. It also mentions that while the US follows a man-in-the-loop approach to using AI-enabled drone swarms, its potential adversaries, such as China, may not abide by such norms.
Additionally, Mark Milley and Eric Schmidt claim in a Foreign Affairs article this month that the US is not adequately prepared for the developing war zone, which is dominated by autonomous weapons, AI, and unmanned systems.
Milley, until recently the US Joint Chief of Staff, and Schmidt, CEO of Google, point out that despite global competitors ‘ rapid advancements in these technologies, the US has lagged in developing and deploying such capabilities effectively.
They attribute delays to outdated military doctrine, bureaucratic inertia, and a lack of explicit strategic intent when integrating AI and autonomous systems into combat operations.
They claim that this inadequacy is particularly worrying because more and more conflicts rely on these cutting-edge technologies to gain a competitive edge on the battlefield. They warn that ignoring the gaps could make the US vulnerable in upcoming conflicts, where they contend that AI and autonomous weapons systems will be crucial.